Tag: Jane Stroud

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Alberta Politics

The stakes are high for Nenshi’s NDP in the Lethbridge-West by-election

Two former City Councillors running for NDP nomination

The stakes are high for Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi in the upcoming Lethbridge-West by-election. This will be the new NDP leader’s first electoral test since his landslide victory in June and, because of that, it’s also a race that Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party really want to win.

The by-election to choose who will succeed former three-term NDP MLA Shannon Phillips’ hasn’t been called yet but the date of the vote will need to be set by January 1, 2025. The NDP and UCP have both started their nomination process to select candidates.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Teacher Ariana Mancini running for Alberta NDP nomination in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche by-election

Rachel Notley with the local fire dog and Fort McMurray NDP candidates Ariana Mancini and Stephen Drover during the 2015 election.
Rachel Notley with the local fire dog and Fort McMurray NDP candidates Ariana Mancini and Stephen Drover during the 2015 election.

Fort McMurray teacher Ariana Mancini is running for the Alberta NDP nomination in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche ahead of the upcoming by-election in the riding.

Mancini teaches Grade 4 at Ecole Dickinsfield School in Fort McMurray and is on the executive of Fort McMurray Local 48 of the Alberta Teachers Association.

“Conservatives have failed to deliver on the promises they made in the last election. Their corporate tax cuts haven’t created the jobs they promised,” Mancini said in a press release. “Under Jason Kenney, life is getting more expensive: income taxes are up, insurance rates are up, electricity rates are up, tuition is up.

“It’s time we had representation in our region that believed in making life more affordable for families,” Mancini said.

Don Scott MLA Fort McMurray Conklin
Don Scott

A nomination meeting is scheduled for Dec. 9 and Mancini is expected to be acclaimed. NDP leader Rachel Notley will be in Fort McMurray for what the party describes will be a nomination rally.

This will be Mancini’s second time running for the provincial NDP.

In 2015 she placed second behind Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean (who is also running for the United Conservative Party nomination to run this by-election) and ahead of incumbent Progressive Conservative MLA Don Scott (who would later serve as Mayor of Wood Buffalo from 2017 to 2021) in the former Fort McMurray-Conklin riding.

NDP are the underdog in this race

Despite Notley’s NDP leading in the province-wide polls since last November and Premier Jason Kenney reaching record low approval ratings, it will be an uphill battle for any party other than the UCP to win this by-election. Voters in this region of north east Alberta have reliably elected Conservative candidates for over three decades.

Leo Piquette NDP MLA Athabasca-Lac La Biche
Leo Piquette

Popular municipal councillor Jane Stroud was only able to earn 24 per cent as the NDP candidate in the 2019 election, and you have to look all the way back to 1986 to find the last time a New Democrat was elected in the area (NDP MLA Leo Piquette represented Athabasca-Lac La Biche from 1986 to 1989).

The last time a candidate from a non-Conservative party was elected in this area was in 1993, when Adam Germain was elected in Fort McMurray and Paul Langevin was elected in Lac La Biche-St. Paul under the Liberal Party banner (though, the Liberals in that election were arguably more conservative than they have ever been since).

All that said, by-elections can sometimes produce unexpected results.

The nasty feud between Jean and Kenney, unhappiness with the UCP’s response to COVID-19, persistent high unemployment, displeasure with the forced provincial centralization of ambulance dispatch, and skepticism about the UCP’s move to abandon the RCMP and form a provincial police force might just be a few of the issues that help voters decide who to cast their ballot.

The by-election in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche must be called by Feb. 15, 2022.

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Alberta Politics

MLA Laila Goodridge jumps into federal politics, leaving an opening for Brian Jean to run in a Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche by-election

Laila Goodridge and Jason Kenney
Laila Goodridge and Jason Kenney

Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche United Conservative Party MLA Laila Goodridge has been appointed as the federal Conservative Party candidate in Fort McMurray-Cold Lake following MP David Yurdiga’s decision to withdraw his candidacy on the day the election was called for September 20, 2021.

David Yurdiga MP Fort McMurray-Cold Lake
David Yurdiga

Yurdiga has represented the northern Alberta district since running in a 2014 by-election to replace former MP Brian Jean.

Goodridge has represented the northern Alberta district since running in a 2018 by-election to replace former MLA Brian Jean.

Goodridge was appointed parliamentary secretary responsible for Alberta’s francophonie in June 2019. Before her by-election win she worked as a political staffer in Fort McMurray and Ottawa and ran for the Wildrose Party in Grande Prairie-Wapiti in the 2015 election.

Her sudden entry into federal politics and almost certain election to parliament in this very safe Conservative seat (neither a Liberal or NDP candidate have been nominated yet – but the Maverick Party has a candidate) means that a provincial by-election will be triggered in the next six months.

Brian Jean Calgary Stampede Alberta
Brian Jean

This will be the first by-election since Premier Jason Kenney’s UCP formed government in April 2019. Amid Kenney’s plummeting approval ratings, his party’s drop in the public opinion polls and lacklustre fundraising, a by-election in what should be a safe UCP riding will be interesting litmus test for the Premier.

Rachel Notley’s NDP are likely eager to contest a by-election, but they probably hoped their first chance would be in Calgary or a friendlier locale. The NDP didn’t win this seat in the Orange Wave of 2015 and their candidate, Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Jane Stroud, placed a distant second in the 2018 by-election and 2019 general election.

Expectations of an NDP win in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche in 2021 would be low – though winning this by-election would be a big win for the NDP and a massive blow for the UCP – and Kenney.

A provincial by-election in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche will also offer Brian Jean a chance to leave the sidelines after four years of sniping at Kenney on social media and the Postmedia opinion pages. Jean left elected politics after Kenney and a kamikaze campaign defeated him in the 2017 UCP leadership race but he has remained a harsh critic of Kenney’s leadership and has publicly flirted with Alberta separatism.

Todd Loewen, former MLA Wayne Anderson, Brian Jean, and Drew Barnes at the Calgary Stampede BBQ in July 2021. (Source: Facebook)
Todd Loewen, former MLA Wayne Anderson, Brian Jean, and Drew Barnes at the Calgary Stampede BBQ in July 2021. (Source: Facebook)

Jean is rumoured to be considering running for the Alberta Party leadership and was spotted at the Stampede BBQ hosted by UCP MLAs-in-exile Drew Barnes and Todd Loewen last month in Calgary. He called on Kenney to resign in June, but it did not spark the rebellion that he may have hoped his words would have inspired.

A Brian Jean win in a Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche by-election could be the ultimate blow to Kenney that Jean is hoping to deliver.

A by-election in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche will need to be called before February 16, 2022.

The federal Liberal Party continues to nominate candidates in Alberta following yesterday’s federal election call, including the following candidates who were nominated yesterday:

  • Scott Forsyth in Calgary-Heritage
  • Zarnab Zafar in Calgary-Midnapore
  • Olumide Adewumi in Red Deer-Mountain View
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Alberta Politics

Brian Jean running for the Alberta Party? Not strangest thing to happen in Alberta politics, but it would be up there.

Brian Jean United Conservative Party Leadership Wildrose

It might not be the strangest thing to happen in Alberta politics, but it’s up there.

Stephen Mandel Edmonton
Stephen Mandel

Just over a year since he resigned as the MLA for Fort McMurray-Conklin, former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean is said to be making a big announcement later this week – and the rumour mill is churning hard with news that Jean could jump back into Alberta politics as the Alberta Party candidate in the new Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche district in the upcoming election.

A former MLA and MP for northeast Alberta, Jean has remained a vocal critic of United Conservative Party leader Jason Kenney since his departure from the Legislature following his defeat in the 2017 UCP leadership contest. In a recent op-ed in Alberta’s Postmedia newspapers, Jean described Kenney’s economic campaign promises as “fiscal fairy tales.”

And there are all the allegations that Kenney supported a “kamikaze mission“ by Jeff Callaway targeting Jean during the UCP leadership contest in 2017.

His recent proclamations that “Canada is broken” and “Albertans are furious” at the state of Confederation makes Jean sound like he might be more at home at Yellow Vest protest or in Derek Fildebrandt‘s Freedom Conservative Party than in the caucus of the centre-rightish Alberta Party, but the third-place party led by former Edmonton mayor and briefly Progressive Conservative cabinet minister Stephen Mandel has already recruited a few strange bedfellows.

While rumours of Jean joining the Alberta Party are not new, Mandel’s recent change in tone with the new slogan “fiercely Albertan” feels tailor-made to recruit the former Wildrose Party leader.

Laila Goodridge United Conservative Party
Laila Goodridge

The Freedom Conservatives would seems like more natural home for Jean, if it were not for his stormy relationship with Fildebrandt, another former UCP MLA. But as I have already alluded, political can make strange bedfellows.

Running in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche would mean Jean would be challenging his successor in the legislature, UCP MLA Laila Goodridge, a former political staffer who worked  as an organizer during his 2017 UCP leadership campaign.

While Goodridge’s party is riding high in the polls as she faces a rematch with New Democratic Party candidate Jane Stroud, a Wood Buffalo Municipal Councillor, it is not hard to imagine Jean turning what should have been a locked down district for the UCP into a competitive race. Jean represented the region in the House of Commons from 2006 to 2014 and in the Alberta Legislature from 2015 to 2018.

If Jean actually does make the jump, it would not be the first time a defeated conservative leadership candidate jumped to a new party in hopes of rebooting a political career. Many Albertans will remember when defeated 1992 PC Party leadership candidate Nancy Betkowski returned to the political stage to win the Liberal Party leadership in 1998 as Nancy MacBeth. (Spoiler: it didn’t turn out great).

All this said, let’s remember the last time Brian Jean hyped up political watchers into tuning in to his special announcement. Maybe Jean’s special announcement this week will actually be to tell us all that his newborn baby has slept through the night for the first time? (and if so, congratulations!).

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Alberta Politics

Len Rhodes to be appointed UCP candidate in Edmonton-Meadows. Firefighter captain Todd Russell wins NDP contest in Grande Prairie

Len Rhodes Edmonton-Meadows UCP
Len Rhodes

Photo: Len Rhodes (source: cfl.ca)

The rumour mill is churning at full speed with news that Len Rhodes, outgoing President and CEO of the Edmonton Eskimos, is on the verge of being appointed by Jason Kenney as the United Conservative Party candidate in Edmonton-Meadows.

Arundeep Sandhu Edmonton By-election ward 12
Arundeep Sandhu

Rhodes’ appointment would bump three local nomination candidates, Joel Mullan, Arundeep Sandhu, and Sant Sharma, who have been campaigning for the UCP candidacy in the southeast Edmonton district for nearly a year. In particular, Sandhu, a young Edmontonian of Sikh heritage who mounted an energetic bid for City Council in 2016, has been campaigning hard for the nomination since May 2018.

Rhodes recently completed a term a Chair of the Board of the Edmonton Chamber of Commerce and announced last week that he was stepping away from his senior executive role with the Canadian Football League team as of Feb. 20. It appears we will know soon if this is the reason why.

With seven years as the top corporate executive of the Eskimos on his resume, Rhodes will certainly be described as a “star candidate,” which is something that has so far been absent from the UCP slate in NDP-leaning Edmonton. But his personal connections to the district, his own political views and understanding of local issues remains unclear.

The area included in the Edmonton-Meadows district is currently represented by New Democratic Party MLA Denise Woollard, who was first elected in 2015 in Edmonton-Mill Creek. Woollard is being challenged for her party’s nomination by 2015 federal NDP candidate Jasvir Deol and Alberta Pashtoon Association president Chand Gul. A nomination meeting for the NDP has been scheduled for Feb. 24, 2019.

Firefighter Captain wins NDP nomination in Grande Prairie

Rachel Notley (centre), with Grande Prairie NDP nomination candidates Melissa Byers and Todd Russell.
Rachel Notley (centre), with Grande Prairie NDP nomination candidates Melissa Byers and Todd Russell.

Firefighter Captain Todd Russell defeated non-profit executive director Melissa Byers to secure the NDP nomination Grande Prairie on Feb. 19. The contested nomination meeting was attended by Premier Rachel Notley and Energy Minister Marg McCuaig-Boyd, who is running for re-election in the new neighbouring Central Peace-Notley district.

Russell placed second in the Grande Prairie-Smoky district in the 2015 election, placing 334 votes behind then-Wildrose candidate Todd Loewen. Loewen is seeking re-election in the neighbouring district against McCuaig-Boyd.

The Alberta Firefighters Association has endorsed Notley and been actively campaigning for NDP candidates across the province. AFA President Craig Macdonald gave a rousing speech at the NDP convention in October 2018 praising the Notley government for introducing new workplace health and safety rules to protect firefighters and first responders.

NDP select more 5 candidates and announce new nomination meetings

NDP MLA Chris Nielsen was nominated as the NDP candidate in Edmonton-Decore and MLA Kim Schreiner has been nominated in Red Deer-North.

Jane Stroud NDP Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche
Jane Stroud

Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Jane Stroud has been nominated as the NDP candidate in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche district and Fort McMurray Public Schools trustee Stephen Drover has been nominated as the NDP candidate in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo. Cesar Cala has been nominated as the NDP candidate in Calgary-East.

The NDP announced a series of upcoming nomination meetings, with Robyn O’Brien seeking the nomination in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake on February 27, Kate Andrews seeking the nomination in Calgary-Acadia on March 1, Julia Bietz seeking the NDP nomination in Calgary-Lougheed on March 2, Rebecca Bounsall seeking the nomination in Calgary-Fish Creek and Hafeez Chishti is seeking the NDP nomination in Calgary-North West on March 3.

The NDP have also scheduled nomination meetings in Calgary-South East, Drumheller-Stettler, Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, and Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright on February 28, 2019, and in Brooks-Medicine Hat on March 2, 2019.

Colette Smithers
 has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate in Cypress-Medicine Hat.

Another Alberta Party candidate banned

It appears as though Tim Meech, the Alberta Party candidate in Livingstone-Macleod, and his CFO Mark Taylor, who is the executive director of the Alberta Party, have been added to Elections Alberta’s now infamous list of people ineligible to serve as candidates or CFOs.

Taylor is also serving as CFO for Red Deer-North candidate Paul Hardy and 4 Alberta Party constituency associations.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

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Alberta Politics

Rakhi Pancholi nominated for NDP in Edmonton-Whitemud, NDP to hold 3 more candidate selection meetings on Feb. 9

Rakhi Pancholi Edmonton-Whitemud NDP

Photo: Rakhi Pancholi (source: Twitter)

With the nomination of Rakhi Pancholi in Edmonton-Whitemud, the Alberta New Democratic Party has selected 53 candidates across the province. Pancholi is a lawyer with McLennan Ross LLP and previously worked as the staff lawyer for the Alberta School Boards Association and as a Solicitor with the Government of Alberta. She is currently the Vice Chair of the Education Law Section of the Canadian Bar Association and sit on the Board of Directors of ParityYEG, an Edmonton-based organization promoting gender parity in politics.

Pancholi is aiming to succeed popular NDP MLA Bob Turner, who announced his plans to retire from politics late last year. She has the endorsements of Edmonton Public School Board trustee Michael Janz and former Edmonton-Strathcona NDP MLAs Raj Pannu and Barrie Chivers.

The NDP have scheduled a series of nomination meetings over the next few weeks and more are expected to be announced as we approach the impending election call later this spring:

John Archer NDP Edmonton South West
John Archer

February 9: Ministerial press secretary and former CBC reporter John Archer is seeking the NDP nomination in Edmonton-South West. Retired teacher and political columnist Peter Mueller is expected to secure the NDP nomination in Cypress-Medicine Hat. And Gulshan Akter is seeking the NDP nomination in Calgary-West.

February 16: Cesar Cala is expected to be nominated as the NDP candidate in Calgary-East and MLA Chris Nielsen is seeking the NDP nomination in Edmonton-Decore.

February 17: Wood Buffalo Municipal Councillor and 2017 Fort McMurray-Conklin by-election candidate Jane Stroud will seek the NDP nomination in the new Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche district. Fort McMurray school board trustee Stephen Drover is seeking the NDP nomination in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo.

February 19: Melissa Byers and Todd Russell are challenging each other for the NDP nomination in Grande Prairie.

February 20: MLA Kim Schreiner is expected to be nominated as the NDP candidate in Red Deer-North.

February 23: Cameron Gardner is seeking the NDP nomination in Livingstone-Macleod. Gardner is Reeve of the Municipal District of Ranchland.

February 24: Jasvir Deol has joined MLA Denise Woollard and Chand Gul in the NDP nomination contest in Edmonton-Meadows. Crown Prosecutor Moira Vane is seeking the NDP nomination in Strathcona-Sherwood Park.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

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No surprises as UCP wins big in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-elections

United Conservative Party candidates were elected in by-elections held in two traditionally strong conservative voting districts on July 12, 2018. Both districts were held by the UCP before the by-elections were called and voters in both districts elected Wildrose Party candidates in the 2015 election.

In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Laila Goodridge soundly defeated New Democratic Party candidate Jane Stroud, a three-term Wood Buffalo municipal councillor, with a 45 percent margin of victory. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, one of the strongest conservative voting districts in Alberta, Devin Dreeshen was elected with 81 percent of the vote.

The NDP was nowhere close to victory in either district. In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Stroud finished with 29 percent, only one-point lower her party’s share of the vote in the 2015 election. NDP candidate Nicole Mooney finished a distant second with 9 percent of the vote in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, but this still represented her party’s second best ever showing in this district since it was created in 1993.

With 7 percent of the vote in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta Party candidate Abigail Douglass finished only slightly higher than this district’s past Alberta Party candidate Danielle Klooster, who finished with 6.2 percent of the vote in the 2015 election. In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Alberta Party candidate Sid Fayad finished in a distant third with 2.7 percent.

The Liberals barely registered on the radar in these by-elections, with Fort McMurray-Conklin candidate Robin Le Fevre earning 1.1 percent and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake candidate Nick Jansen finishing with 0.9 percent.

Here are the results:

Fort McMurray-Conklin 
Laila Goodridge, UCP – 2,635 (65.8%)
Jane Stroud, NDP – 1,181 (29.5%)
Sid Fayad, AP – 110 (2.7%)
Robin La Fevre, Lib – 44 (1.1%)
Brian Deheer, Grn – 29 (0.7%)

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
Devin Dreeshen, UCP – 8,033 (81.7%)
Nicole Mooney, NDP – 907 (9.2%)
Abigail Douglass, AP – 729 (7.4%)
Nick Jansen, Lib – 93 (0.9%)
David Inscho, Ind – 63 (0.6%)

Here are the 2018 by-election results compared to previous results in these two districts from the time they were formed:

Fort McMurray-Conklin Election Results 2012-2018
Fort McMurray-Conklin Election Results 2012-2018 (click to enlarge)
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Election Results 1993-2018
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Election Results 1993-2018 (click to enlarge)
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Episode 15: Politicians pretending to be Cowboys. It’s Stampede Week in Calgary!

Michelle Rempel, Jason Kenney, Joe Ceci, Rachel Notley, Oneil Carlier and Andrew Scheer (sources: Facebook, Twitter, and Alberta Beef)
Michelle Rempel, Jason Kenney, Joe Ceci, Rachel Notley, Oneil Carlier and Andrew Scheer (sources: Facebook, Twitter, and Alberta Beef)

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It is Calgary Stampede season, which means politicians from across Canada are flocking to Alberta’s largest city to show off their recently purchased plaid shirts and cowboy hats.

In this episode of the Daveberta Podcast, Dave Cournoyer and Ryan Hastman discuss politicians pretending to be cowboys, the latest federal and provincial nomination news, including the retirement of long-time New Democratic Party MLA Brian Mason, the July 12 by-elections in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, and the 18-year old groping allegations levelled against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

We also share some personal stories from the campaign trail in our regular ‘So you want to be a candidate’ segment.

The Daveberta Podcast is a member of the Alberta Podcast Network powered by ATB Financial. The network includes more than 30 podcasts.

You can listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, or wherever you find podcasts online. We’d love to hear what you think of this episode, so feel free to leave a comment on the blog, Facebook or Twitter or send us an email at podcast@daveberta.ca.

We are always thankful to our hard working producer, Adam Rozenhart, who helps make each episode of the Daveberta Podcast sound so great.

Thank you for listening!

Recommended reading/watching

Photo: Michelle Rempel, Jason Kenney, Joe Ceci, Rachel Notley, Oneil Carlier and Andrew Scheer (sources: Facebook, Twitter, and Alberta Beef)

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Green Party candidate drops out and endorses Liberal candidate in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election

Green Party of Alberta candidate Marco Reid has dropped out of the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election and tweeted his endorsement of Liberal Party candidate Nick Jansen.

Reid is the president of the Green Party of Alberta.

Nick Jansen Liberal Innisfail Sylvan Lake
Nick Jansen

Jansen is the Liberal Party’s former vice-president of policy and a current policy advisor to party leader Dave Khan. Both Reid and Jansen live in Calgary.

While this may seem like an odd move, a Green Party endorsement of a Liberal candidate is not unprecedented.

In 2015, the Green Party endorsed Liberal candidate Michael Dawe in Red Deer-North and Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman in Edmonton-Centre. The Alberta Party also endorsed Blakeman in that election.

‘Fly in, Fly out candidate’

At her campaign launch last week, Fort McMurray-Conklin New Democratic Party by-election candidate Jane Stroud accused United Cosnervative Party candidate Laila Goodridge of being a “fly in, fly out” candidate. Stroud, a Wood Buffalo municipal councillor, took aim at Goodridge for her career as a political staffer in Edmonton and Ottawa and comments made when she ran for the Wildrose Party in Grande Prairie-Wapiti in the 2015 election.

Goodridge was born and raised in Fort McMurray and has worked as a political staffer in Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa, including as a constituency assistant for former Calgary-Centre MP Joan Crockatt. She was director of field operations for former Fort McMurray-Conklin MLA Brian Jean’s campaign for the leadership of the UCP in 2017.

Former NDP MLA on the campaign trail

Service Alberta Minister Brian Malkinson, NDP candidate Nicole Mooney and former NDP MLA John Younie.
Service Alberta Minister Brian Malkinson, NDP candidate Nicole Mooney and former NDP MLA John Younie.

Photos of former NDP MLA John Younie have been featured prominently in tweets posted by Innisfail-Sylvan Lake NDP candidate Nicole Mooney.

Younie served as MLA for Edmonton-Glengarry from 1986 to 1989. While in the Assembly, he served as Official Opposition critic for Forestry, Lands and Wildlife, the Environment, and Public Works. He was unseated by Liberal leader and former Edmonton mayor Laurence Decore in the 1989 election.

He was the NDP candidate in Rocky Mountain House in 1979, which at that time included the Town of Sylvan Lake.

Independent Alberta Advantage candidate

David Inscho is running as an Independent candidate in the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election. Inscho is president of the Alberta Advantage Party and the former president of the Wildrose Party association in Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills. The AAP is in the process of becoming an officially recognized political party.

The UCP candidates are expected to win both by-elections on July 12, 2018.

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July by-elections called in two UCP-friendly districts.

Photo: Laila Goodridge, Jane Stroud, Nicole Mooney, and Abigail Douglass

By-elections were called today and will be held in the provincial districts of Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and Fort McMurray-Conklin on July 12, 2018.

The by-elections are needed to replace United Conservative Party MLAs Don MacIntyre and Brian Jean. MacIntyre resigned in February 2018 after he was charged with sexual assault and sexual interference, and Jean resigned in March 2018 after he was defeated in the UCP leadership contest.

In a different context in another part of the world, July 12 is known as Orangemen’s Day, but don’t expect any kind of NDP orange parade to march through these districts on July 12. Both districts are traditionally reliably conservative voting areas that elected Wildrose Party candidates in the 2015 election. And Innisfail-Sylvan Lake has been one of the strongest conservative voting districts in Alberta over the past two decades.

Judging by the voting history of the two districts, it is very likely the UCP should win both by-elections. Anything less than landslide victories in both districts will be bad news for the UCP.

While we can expect New Democratic Party cabinet ministers and MLAs to campaign alongside their party’s candidates in both districts, it appears likely that the governing party will focus most of its by-election resources in Fort McMurray-Conklin. The results will provide an indication if Premier Rachel Notley‘s championing the Trans Mountain Pipeline has had any impact on the electorate.

The strong showing by the Liberals in the 2014 by-election in the federal Fort McMurray district proves that the Conservative party’s electoral grip on the area has been loser than other rural areas of the province, but a lot has changed in Alberta politics in the past 4 years.

I almost feel sorry for the NDP that none of their MLAs have resigned since the 2015 election. All five by-election elections that have taken place during the NDP’s first term in government have been located in unfriendly districts that elected Progressive Conservative or Wildrose MLAs in 2015.

A respectable second place finish will look good for the NDP.

The Alberta Party sat out the previous two by-elections in Calgary-Greenway in 2016 and Calgary-Lougheed in 2017, but they now are fielding candidates in these races. This is the party’s first electoral test since former PC cabinet minster and Edmonton mayor Stephen Mandel was selected as the party’s leader. How the Alberta Party fares in these by-elections could provide them with momentum ahead of next year’s expected provincial election.

A respectable second place finish will look great for the Alberta Party and help them position themselves as a viable conservative alternative to the UCP.

It is important to remember that by-elections can sometimes produce unpredictable results, and that those results that may or may not be an indicator of future general election results. But as these two districts have very long histories as conservative voting areas, it is difficult to see voters in these districts choosing any other candidate but the UCP in 2018.

Here are the candidates nominated as of June 14, 2018.

Fort McMurray-Conklin
Alberta Party – Sid Fayed [Twitter]
Green Party – Brian Deheer
Liberal – Robin Le Fevre
New Democratic Party – Jane Stroud [Facebook, Twitter]
United Conservative Party – Laila Goodridge [Facebook, Twitter]

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
Alberta Party – Abigail Douglass [Facebook, Twitter]
Green Party – Marco Reid [Facebook]
Liberal – Nicolaas Jansen
New Democratic Party – Nicole Mooney [Facebook, Twitter]
United Conservative Party – Devin Dreeshen [Facebook, Twitter]

Note: Reform Party of Alberta leader Randy Thorsteinson had initially announced plans to run in the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election. He has since withdrawn his candidacy.

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Episode 12: Trans Mountain Pipeline deadline, NDP family conflict, and Horwath NDP vs. Ford Nation in Ontario’s Election

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How are Canada’s political leaders are positioning themselves ahead of the Kinder Morgan corporation’s imposed May 31 pipeline deadline? What will federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau say when he visits Calgary this week? What is the long term impact of the pipeline dispute between the provincial and federal New Democratic Parties? Will Andrea Horwath’s NDP sweep Ontario’s provincial election or can Ford Nation manage to win? These are a few of the topics Dave Cournoyer and Ryan Hastman discuss in this episode of the Daveberta Podcast.

Daveberta Podcast Alberta PoliticsRyan leads this week’s ‘So you want to be a candidate‘ segment with volunteer recruitment and management tips for anyone planning to run in next year’s election. And we answer a few questions from our listeners.

The Daveberta Podcast is a member of the Alberta Podcast Network powered by ATB Financial. The network includes more than 30 podcasts, including the awesome Let’s Find Out Podcast.

You can listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, or wherever you find podcasts online.

Enter our contest! If you leave a review on Apple Podcasts before May 31, 2018, you will be entered into a contest that will include awesome prizes, including a copy of The Last Campaign: Robert F. Kennedy and 82 Days That Inspired America by Thurston Clarke.

We’d love to hear what you think of this episode, so feel free to leave a comment on this blog, Facebook or Twitter or send us an email at podcast@daveberta.ca.

We are always thankful to our hard working producer, Adam Rozenhart, who helps make each episode of the Daveberta Podcast sound so great.

Thank you for listening!

Additional reading:

The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion must be built, by Rachel Notley (May 22, 2018)

Jason Kenney’s Guardian Role, by Jared Wesley (May 26, 2018)

Five things to know about the 2018 Alberta Budget, by Nick Falvo (March 26, 2018)

CBC Ontario Election Poll Tracker

OnPulse: In-depth analysis, research & insights on the 2018 Ontario election

Context for the word “Goat Rodeo,” in an article by Daniel Dale (May 24, 2018)

LISTEN TO THE LATEST EPISODE OF THE DAVEBERTA PODCAST:

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Laila Goodridge wins UCP nomination to run in Fort McMurray-Conklin by-election

Laila Goodridge has been chosen as the United Conservative Party candidate in the upcoming Fort McMurray-Conklin by-election. The yet to be called by-election is required following the resignation of UCP MLA and former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean in March 2018.

Laila Goodridge United Conservative Party
Laila Goodridge

According to Fort McMurray Today reporter Vincent McDermott, Goodridge won the nomination with 52 percent of the vote on the second ballot. She defeated longtime conservative party campaign manager Willie Hoflin, social worker Elizabeth Keating, and eight-term Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Phil Meagher in the nomination contest.

Her nomination candidacy had been endorsed by UCP MLAs Leela Aheer, David Hanson, Jason Nixon, Todd Loewen and Conservative MPs Matt Jeneroux and Dane Lloyd.

Goodridge worked as a political staffer in Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa, including as a constituency assistant for former Calgary-Centre MP Joan Crockatt. She was director of field operations for Jean’s UCP leadership campaign in 2017. She was also the Wildrose candidate in Grande Prairie-Wapiti in the 2015 election where she placed third behind PC incumbent Wayne Drysdale and New Democrat Mary Dahl.

Goodridge was considered a potential candidate for the Conservative nomination in the 2014 by-election in Fort McMurray-Athabasca that was held to replace Jean when he resigned from federal politics in 2015.

Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Jane Stroud is seeking the New Democratic Party nomination, which is scheduled to take place on May 10, 2018.

Here is a look at the vote share by party in Fort McMurray-Conklin in general elections in 2012 and 2015:

Results of the 2012 and 2015 elections in Fort McMurray-Conklin.
Results of the 2012 and 2015 elections in Fort McMurray-Conklin.
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Alberta Politics

Alberta Candidate Nomination Updates: 2 NDP cabinet ministers announce re-election and 3 more UCP MLAs plan to retire.

Oneil Carlier, Shannon Phillips, Sonya Savage, and Tyler Shandro.
Oneil Carlier, Shannon Phillips, Sonya Savage, and Tyler Shandro.

Photo: Oneil Carlier, Shannon Phillips, Sonya Savage, and Tyler Shandro.

Nominations are picking up speed.

Three more United Conservative Party MLAs have announced their plans to retire when the next election is called. Grande Prairie-Wapiti MLA Wayne Drysdale, Livingstone-Macleod MLA Pat Stier and Little Bow MLA David Schneider will not seek re-election in 2019.

Schneider changed his minds after previously announcing plans to seek re-election in the new Cardston-Siksika district. His entry into that contest forced Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Grant Hunter to seek the UCP nomination in the neighbouring Taber-Warner district, even though he lives in Cardston. It is not yet known whether Hunter will now run for the UCP nomination in what will soon be his home district of Cardston-Siksika.

Environment and Parks Minister Shannon Phillips has filed her intentions with Elections Alberta to run for the New Democratic Party nomination in Lethbridge-West. Phillips was first elected as MLA in 2015 with 59 percent of the vote.

Also running for re-election is Agriculture and Forestry Minister Oneil Carlier, who told XM105FM that he will seek the NDP nomination in the newly redrawn Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland district. Carlier currently represents the Whitecourt-Ste. Anne district, which will no longer exist when the next election is called.

Independent MLA Derek Fildebrandt is agitating in Chestermere-Strathmore. After being banned from rejoining the UCP caucus in February 2, 2018 after a string of embarrassing scandals, Fildebrandt has essentially accused his former party of being afraid of an open nomination contest in the new district. The theatrical former finance critic accused the UCP of “Trudeau-style affirmative action” for not allowing him to run against popular Chestermere-Rockyview UCP MLA Leela Aheer.

As first reported on this blog on April 7, 2018, Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Jane Stroud will seek the NDP nomination in the upcoming Fort McMurray-Conklin by-election. The UCP have set May 1, 2018 as the date for their candidate nomination vote.

In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, candidate Joel Loh was not allowed to join the UCP nomination contest and has since endorsed Red Deer County councillor Christine Moore.  UCP members in that district will select a candidate in a vote at the end of the month.

Here are some of the other nomination updates from around the province:

Calgary-Acadia – Lawyer Tyler Shandro is seeking the UCP nomination. Astute followers of Alberta politics might recall Shandro’s role in the EdStelmach.ca incident. Good luck and govern yourself accordingly, Tyler.

Calgary-Currie – Amoriza Gunnink is seeking the UCP nomination. Gunnink is the founder of the Kinderhouse Preschool. Tony Norman is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Norman was his party’s candidate in this district in the 2015 election.

Calgary-East – Pradeep Singh is seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-Falconridge – Happy Mann is seeking the UCP nomination. Mann was the Wildrose Party candidate in Calgary-McCall in the 2015 election and the 2012 Wildrose Party candidate in Calgary-Cross.

Calgary-Glenmore – Maureen Zelmer is seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-Mountain View – Dean Brawn is seeking the UCP nomination. Brawn was a candidate for Calgary City Council in Ward 7 in the 2017 municipal election.

Calgary-North West – Sonya Savage is seeking the UCP nomination. She is the Senior Director of Policy & Regulatory Affairs at Canadian Energy Pipeline Association. In 2011, she served as co-chair of Rick Orman’s campaign for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party.

Drumheller-Stettler – MLA Rick Strankman is seeking the UCP nomination. Strankman was first elected in 2012 as a Wildrose Party candidate.

Edmonton-Ellerslie – Yash Sharma is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Sharma is the Publisher of the Asia Tribune and producer of Harmony TV and in 2016 he was one of 32 candidates to run in the Ward 12 by-election.

Edmonton-South West – Kevin Greco is seeking the UCP nomination.

Lethbridge-East – Brian Litchfield is seeking the UCP nomination.

Morinville-St. Albert – Dale Nally and Trina Jones have entered the UCP nomination contest. Jones is currently serving as Deputy Mayor of the Town of Legal

Sherwood Park – Jordan Walker is seeking the UCP nomination. Walker and Strathcona-Sherwood Park nomination candidate Nate Glubish are being endorsed by Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan Member of Parliament Garnett Genuis, who is hosting a meet and greet for the two candidates on April 27, 2018. Genius was the 2012 Wildrose Party candidate in Sherwood Park.

Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright – Two-time Wildrose Party candidate Danny Hozack is seeking the UCP nomination. Hozack earned 37 percent of the vote in 2012 and 33 percent of the vote in 2015. He is seeking the nomination against Garth Rowswell, his campaign manager from the 2015 election.

West Yellowhead – MLA Eric Rosendahl is seeking the NDP nomination. He was first elected in 2015 with 39 percent of the vote.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list.

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Alberta Politics Daveberta Podcast

Episode 10: Week 300 of the Trans Mountain Pipeline debate, and predictions for Alberta’s 2019 Election.

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This episode includes analysis from Dave Cournoyer and Ryan Hastman about week 300 of the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Pipeline dispute (including updates from Ryan, who was behind enemy lines in Vancouver) and the latest candidate nomination updates ahead of Alberta’s 2019 election.

So you want to be a candidate?

Ryan leads this week’s ‘So you want to be a candidate‘ segment with useful tips for Albertans wanting to run in next year’s election. And we answer a big question from listener Eric Grenier about the Rachel Notley NDP’s chances of re-election.

The Daveberta Podcast is a member of the Alberta Podcast Network powered by ATB Financial. The network includes more than 30 podcasts, including one of our favourites, The Expats.

Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, and wherever you find podcasts online. If you leave a review on Apple Podcasts before May 31, 2018, you will be entered into a contest that will include awesome (and yet to be determined) prizes.

We’d love to hear what you think of this episode, so feel free to leave a comment on this blog, Facebook or Twitter or send us an email at podcast@daveberta.ca.

We are always grateful for our producer, Adam Rozenhart, for his help in making this podcast a reality. This episode was recorded over Google Hangout.

Thank you for listening!

Update: When we recorded this episode, we mentioned that NDP MLA Shannon Phillips had not yet announced her plans to seek re-election. The day after we record this episode, Phillips announced her plans to seek re-election in Lethbridge-West.

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Alberta Politics

Sunday Night Candidate Nomination Update

Shelly Shannon Kathleen Ganley Christina Gray Beth Barberree Alberta Election Nomination candiates
Shelly Shannon Kathleen Ganley Christina Gray Beth Barberree Alberta Election Nomination candiates

Photo: Shelly Shannon, Kathleen Ganley, Christina Gray, and Beth Barberree

The New Democratic Party has scheduled its nomination meeting in Fort McMurray-Conklin for May 10, 2018. A by-election is needed in this district following the resignation of United Conservative Party MLA Brian Jean. Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Jane Stroud is expected to seek the NDP nomination.

Willie Hoflin is the fourth candidate to join the UCP nomination contest in Fort McMurray-Conklin. Hoflin’s website describes him as a 40-year Syncrude employee and past campaign manager for former Fort McMurray MLAs Guy Boutilier and Adam Germain. Hoflin left the PC Party in June 2010 to join the Wildrose Party.

Here are some other recent updates to the list of candidates running for nominations ahead of Alberta’s expected 2019 provincial election:

Calgary-Acadia – Amina Beecroft is seeking the UCP nomination. Beecroft is an accounting and finance instructor at Mount Royal University. She is the former president of the Calgary-Acadia Progressive Conservative Association and the current president of the UCP in that district.

Calgary-Bow – Harry Fleming is seeking the UCP nomination in Calgary-Bow. Fleming is an assistant with Harper & Associates, the company founded by former Prime Minister Stephen Harper after the Conservative Party of Canada’s defeat in the 2015 election. He also served as Calgary vice-president of the Progressive Conservative Youth of Alberta from 2016 to 2017 and president of the University of Ottawa Conservative Club from 2014 to 2015.

Calgary-Currie – Nicholas Milliken is seeking the UCP nomination. Milliken is a lawyer and CEO of  Brolly Legal Recruitment. He is the great grandson of Alberta MLA William Howson, who represented Edmonton in the Alberta Legislature from 1930 to 1936 and led the Alberta Liberal Party from 1932 to 1936.

Calgary-Edgemont – Beth Barberree is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Barberree is a practicing massage therapist and the owner of Massage at the Club. She was the Alberta Party candidate in Calgary-Hawkwood in the 2015 election, earning 4.5 percent of the vote.

Calgary-Mountain View – On April 14, Minister of Justice and Solicitor General Kathleen Ganley became the first NDP candidate officially nominated to run in the next election. Ganley was first elected as the MLA for Calgary-Buffalo in 2015, but recently announced she would seek re-election in the neighbouring Calgary-Mountain View district. The district is currently represented by four-term Liberal MLA David Swann, who has announced he plans to retire from politics when the next election is called.

Camrose – Rob Johnson is seeking the UCP nomination. Johnson ran for the Wildrose Party nomination in Battle River-Wainwright in 2011 and was the Wildrose candidate in Strathcona-Sherwood Park in the 2015 election, earning 23 percent of the vote.

Edmonton-City Centre – Robert Philp is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Philip is a former judge and in June 2014 was appointed Chief of the Commission and Tribunals, Alberta Human Rights Commission.

Edmonton-Mill Woods – The NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting to take place on May 6, 2018. Incumbent MLA and Minister of Labour Christina Gray is expected to be nominated. Gray was first elected in 2015, earning 64 percent of the vote.

Lacombe-Ponoka – MLA Ron Orr is seeking the UCP nomination. Orr was first elected as a Wildrose Party MLA in 2015, earning 35 percent of the vote. In November 2017, the former Baptist pastor suggested that the legalization of marijuana in Canada could lead to a communist revolution.

Lethbridge-East – The NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting for May 6, 2018. Incumbent MLA Maria Fitzpatrick is expected to be nominated. Fitzpatrick was first elected in 2015, earning 47 percent of the vote. Unlike most southern Alberta districts, Lethbridge-East has a long history of bucking the province-wide conservative trend. From 1993 to 2011, this district was represented by Liberal MLAs Ken Nicol and Bridget Pastoor. Pastoor crossed the floor to the PCs in 2011 and was re-elected in 2012.

Peace River – Shelly Shannon is the fifth candidate to enter the UCP nomination contest in this district. Shannon is the advertising manager of the Postmedia owned Peace River Record Gazette and is the past president of the Peace River and District Chamber of Commerce. She previously served as a regional director for the now-defunct PC Party.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list.

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