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Alberta Politics

Six takeaways from Alberta’s Referendum and what’s next in our wild west politics

This photo of a defaced separatist campaign sign was widely circulated on social media following the failure of the Alberta separation referendum (source: Facebook)
This photo of a defaced separatist campaign sign was widely circulated on social media following the failure of the Alberta separation referendum (source: Facebook)

Albertans embrace staying in Canada, reject Danielle Smith’s constitutional reforms, give the UCP weak mandate on immigration questions

With 5,536 of 5,537 polling stations reporting and 20,514,670 total ballots cast, we now have a much better look at the results of Alberta’s 10 referendum questions than we did when the vote counting started late Monday night.

1. Support for Alberta remaining in Canada is strong across the board

Option 1 to support Alberta remaining a province in Canada has earned 1,545,242 votes so far, totalling 75% of the vote on the most high profile of the 10 referendum questions. Separatists appealing to Albertans in the final weeks of the campaign to send a message to Ottawa by voting for Option 2 to hold a future binding referendum on separation, earned 514,043 votes — 25% of the total province-wide vote.

The vote to remain in Canada was strong across Alberta but strongest in the two largest urban centres and in First Nations communities.

More than 80% of voters in every riding in Edmonton voted for Alberta to stay in Canada, and the remain side earned more than 75% of the vote in every Calgary riding. More than 79% of voters in the cities of Airdrie and Lethbridge and the Banff-Kananaskis riding supported remaining in Canada. Turnout reached historic highs in many First Nations communities with support more than 90% in favour of remaining in Canada.

Many ridings outside the big cities voted to remain by more than 60% and only a majority of voters in two ridings voted for Option 2 to hold another referendum to leave. Separatists earned 50.9% in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre and 50.3% in Central Peace-Notley ridings. Results were also close in the Drumheller-Stettler and Taber-Warner ridings.

It is worth noting that the separation option received less votes than the total number of signatures that would have been required to trigger a citizen initiative referendum when the Citizen Initiative Act was initially passed in 2021 (the signature threshold was later significantly lowered by Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party government to accommodate the separatist Stay Free Alberta petition).

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Alberta Politics

An Alberta referendum deep dive on Craft Politics

More than 6,000 Albertans rallied for their province to remain in a united Canada at a October 16 rally at the Edmonton Expo Centre (source: Dave Cournoyer)
More than 6,000 Albertans rallied for their province to remain in a united Canada at a October 16 rally at the Edmonton Expo Centre (source: Dave Cournoyer)

Alberta voted to stay. What now?

I joined Joseph Lavoie on Craft Politics for a deep dive discussion about Alberta’s referendum and how the results could impact Alberta politics and Premier Danielle Smith’s future as leader of the United Conservative Party.

We also discussed how the results of the Alberta separation question and the nine immigration and constitutional questions are a sign of a growing urban-rural divide in Alberta politics (and how the recent NDP win in Calgary-Shaw could reflect urban Albertans unhappiness with the UCP government’s referendum agenda).

Thank you to Joseph for inviting me on the podcast. Be sure to subscribe to Craft Politics on your podcast listening app of choice or watch their interviews on YouTube.

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Alberta Politics

Alberta separatists say they are just getting started

Alberta separation supporters at the Alberta Legislature on August 29, 2026 (photo: Dave Cournoyer)
Alberta separation supporters at the Alberta Legislature on August 29, 2026 (photo: Dave Cournoyer)

Albertans clearly rejected leaving Canada in yesterday’s vote, but the leaders of Alberta’s various separatist factions made it clear on Monday that even in defeat this referendum represents a victory for their movement.

“The percentage vote is irrelevant because we have already won,” wrote the Alberta Prosperity Project’s Jeffrey Rath on X. “Regardless of the outcome tomorrow we have already won the first series of battles in the war for Alberta Independence.”

The controversial lawyer and co-leader of the Alberta Prosperity Project who spread conspiracy theories online about the CFB Wainwright disaster last weekend, also wrote that “[o]n Tuesday we move on to the next phase of our project. We dedicate ourselves and all of our volunteers to the replacement of the Federalist Smith as leader of the Alberta UCP. We will confirm that the UCP is Alberta’s leading Independence Party.”

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Alberta Politics

Albertans overwhelmingly vote to stay in Canada, separatists say they are just getting started

A large crowd of pro-Canada supporters gathered at the Alberta Legislature on October 18 (source: Dave Cournoyer)
A large crowd of pro-Canada supporters gathered at the Alberta Legislature on October 18 (source: Dave Cournoyer)

Support for remaining in Canada is everywhere in Alberta

Here we are. After five months of Alberta politics feeling like a weird fever dream, Albertans have cast their ballots and we have the results of Alberta’s non-binding separation referendum. Well, some results.

As of this morning, with 4,250 of 5,586 polling stations reporting, 75.9% of Albertans voted to remain in Canada, and 24.1% voted to commence the legal process to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.

Results for the nine other referendum questions are much more sparse at this point in the count. Though the results are closer, it looks like eight of the nine are set to pass. The question about allowing the provincial government to opt out of federal programs but still receive the federal funding is heading for defeat at this point in the count.

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Alberta Politics

Nenshi’s NDP delivers final pre-referendum pitch, turns to GOTV ahead of October 19

Former premier Rachel Notley spoke to a crowd at the Alberta NDP’s final Vote to Save Canada rally in Edmonton (screenshot: Alberta NDP / YouTube)
Former premier Rachel Notley spoke to a crowd at the Alberta NDP’s final Vote to Save Canada rally in Edmonton (screenshot: Alberta NDP / YouTube)
4-days until Referendum Day in Alberta

Edmonton has been an Alberta NDP stronghold for the last decade as city voters have shown up in droves to vote orange, so it was appropriate that the party ended its province-wide Vote to Save Canada rally tour last night in the provincial capital.

With four days left until the Referendum Day on October 19, NDP leader Naheed Nenshi was joined by former premier Rachel Notley at the rally at the Polish Hall in the centre of the city.

Notley led the NDP from 2014 to 2024 and served as Premier of Alberta from 2015 to 2019 and she remains a popular figure among NDP supporters. After stepping down as the MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona in 2024, she has reemerged into the spotlight to oppose separatism and the immigration questions on the referendum ballot.

“We have a job to do and that is to get people out to vote,” Notley said to a large crowd at the Polish Hall in Edmonton as she turned her criticism to Premier Danielle Smith.

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Alberta Politics

The Alberta-British Columbia election connection

It wouldn’t be an election in British Columbia if there weren’t people with Alberta connections involved.

Miriam Rycroft is the NDP candidate in the Kelowna-Mission riding in the Okanagan region of BC. Rycroft was a ministerial chief of staff during the Alberta NDP’s time in government and worked as Director of Tour and Scheduling in Premier Rachel Notley’s office. She was President of the Edmonton-Glenora NDP constituency association in 2024.

Politicos with prominent Alberta ties are leading the different parties campaigns.

  • BC NDP campaign chair Cheryl Oates was Executive Director of Communications and Planning for Premier Notley from 2015 to 2019 and worked as communications director for the NDP caucus during the its final years as a 4 MLA opposition.
  • BC Conservative Party campaign manager Katy Merrifield worked as communications director in Premier Jason Kenney’s office and was later the Executive Director of Communications and Engagement for the Alberta government’s Canadian Centre for Recovery Excellence.
  • BC Green Party communications chair Mike Hudema was a prominent environmental activist in Alberta in the 2000s, ran for the Alberta NDP in Edmonton-Meadowlark in the 2001 provincial election, and was elected president of the University of Alberta Students’ Union in 2002.
  • OneBC Party communications director Wyatt Claypool is currently running for the UCP nomination in Calgary-Currie and was a candidate for the federal Conservative nomination in Calgary Signal Hill in 2022.

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Alberta Politics

Michelle Mather nominated as UCP candidate in Calgary-Glenmore

Michelle Mather won the UCP nomination in Calgary-Glenmore (photo source: Michelle Mather / Facebook)
Michelle Mather won the UCP nomination in Calgary-Glenmore (photo source: Michelle Mather / Facebook)

Michelle Mather defeated Sanjeev Kad with 482 votes to 101 votes to win the UCP nomination in Calgary-Glenmore. Mather is co-founder of a number of companies, including Horizon6ix Capital Corp and DrillGear Oilfield Solutions Corporation, and co-founder of the Bridges Calgary Association. She also ran for the UCP nomination in Calgary-Lougheed ahead of the 2023 provincial election.

The riding is currently represented by NDP MLA Nagwan Al-Guneid, who won by a narrow 48 votes in 2023. Al-Guneid was a star candidate for Notley’s NDP in 2023, but she announced last month that she will not seek re-election in 2027.

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Alberta Politics

Mark Carney, Naheed Nenshi, and Rachel Notley headline pro-Canada rallies days before Alberta referendum

Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Albertans at a Forever Canadian event in Banff in September 2026 (source: Mark Carney / Facebook)
Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Albertans at a Forever Canadian event in Banff in September 2026 (source: Mark Carney / Facebook)

We are in the final stretch of one of the strangest periods in Alberta’s political history, and a gauntlet of rallies are being held this week across the province.

Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi and former premier Rachel Notley are sharing a stage at a Vote to Save Canada rally at the Polish Hall in Edmonton on October 14 and Prime Minister Mark Carney will be appearing with former Progressive Conservative politician Thomas Lukaszuk at Forever Canadian rallies at the BMO Centre in Calgary on October 15 and at the Expo Centre in Edmonton on October 16.

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Alberta Politics

Chris Henderson: How to Talk to the Temporary Strategic Alberta Separatist in Your Life

A long highway somewhere in southern Alberta, probably near Foremost. (photo credit: Dave Cournoyer)
ScreenshotA long highway somewhere in southern Alberta, probably near Foremost. (photo credit: Dave Cournoyer)

Five practical messages to explain this isn’t a game worth the risk of playing.

From time to time I open up the Daveberta newsletter to guest writers who have perspectives and thoughts they would like to share that might interest readers of this Substack. My friend Chris Henderson wrote today’s guest article about how to talk about Alberta’s October 19 referendum with the temporary separatist and separation curious people in your life.

Here’s Chris Henderson.

With Alberta’s weird-as-hell 10-question referendum only weeks away, most people seem to have made up their minds about separation.

But one group sits in a paradoxical spot: people who don’t want Alberta to leave Canada, but are considering a strategic Option 2 vote to “send Ottawa a message,” believing it strengthens our hand down the road. Most of us know at least one—in the family, at work, or in the group chat. These are the only moveable voters in this debate, and if you’re voting against separation (which, spoiler alert: I already did, and I voted “No” on the other nine questions), they’re worth having a conversation with.

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Alberta Politics

Rahim Jaffer is back, again, this time running for the UCP

Fresh from his run for Mayor of Edmonton in 2025, former MP Rahim Jaffer is running for the UCP nomination in Edmonton-North West. Jaffer, now a local restaurant owner, represented the Edmonton Strathcona federal riding from 1997 to 2008 and placed fifth with 4.3% of the vote in last year’s mayoral election.

I reached out to Jaffer’s campaign with some questions about why he is jumping into provincial politics but had not heard back at the time this newsletter was published.

Other candidates interested in the UCP nomination are Amit Batra, Iurie Boaghie, and Parker Royer. A nomination vote is scheduled for October 24, 2026.

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Alberta Politics

Republican Party connections to Alberta’s separation referendum

Alberta separation supporters at the Alberta Legislature on August 29, 2026 (photo: Dave Cournoyer)
Alberta separation supporters at the Alberta Legislature on August 29, 2026 (photo: Dave Cournoyer)

Another bombshell story dropped by Carrie Tait and the Globe & Mail

Globe and Mail Alberta correspondent Carrie Tait has been on a roll, with her name sharing the bylines of some of the biggest breaking stories in Alberta politics in the last few years.

Along with her Globe and Mail colleagues Grant Robertson and Nathan Vanderklippe, Tait dropped a bombshell story this past weekend about Alberta separatists going to Washington D.C. to offer fresh water and oil in exchange for American financial support for an independent Alberta Republic and Republican operatives providing tactical assistance to separatist organizers in Alberta.

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Alberta Politics

Rewind: Danielle Smith’s Alberta Sovereignty Act is all about creating a political crisis

Danielle Smith and Rob Anderson in 2010 (source: Dave Cournoyer)
Danielle Smith and Rob Anderson in 2010 (source: Dave Cournoyer)

So much about what is happening in Alberta right now can be traced back to the Free Alberta Strategy

I’m working on a few new columns and a book review that I am hoping to publish soon, so I thought I’d share a piece I wrote that I keep coming back to as I write about what’s happening in Alberta politics today. In fact, it’s the very first column I published on Substack when I shifted Daveberta to this platform in September 2022.

So much about what is happening in Alberta right now, days ahead of the October 19 separation referendum, can be traced back to the Free Alberta Strategy that Danielle Smith promoted before and during her campaign for the United Conservative Party leadership in 2022.

Here’s my column from September 29, 2022.

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Alberta Politics

Mark Carney’s broad approval dwarfs Danielle Smith and Naheed Nenshi

Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Albertans at a Forever Canadian event in Banff in September 2026 (source: Mark Carney / Facebook)
Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Albertans at a Forever Canadian event in Banff in September 2026 (source: Mark Carney / Facebook)

There’s nothing like a Janet Brown poll to shake up Alberta politics

There’s a lot to unpack in the new Alberta politics poll by Janet Brown Opinion Research commissioned by CBC, but before I dive into what one of the province’s most well-respected pollsters has to say about support for Alberta’s political parties, separatism, and AI data centres it’s worth spending a moment reflecting on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s popularity in Alberta.

Carney’s popularity continues to dwarf Premier Danielle Smith and NDP leader Naheed Nenshi and he might be the most popular Liberal Prime Minister in Alberta since Sir Wilfrid Laurier more than 100 years ago.

According to Brown’s poll, 52 percent of Albertans surveyed said they were very impressed with Carney and only 26 percent said they were not at all impressed. Only 30 percent of Albertans surveyed said they were very impressed with Danielle Smith and 51 percent said they were not at all impressed with her job as Premier.

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Alberta Politics

UCP nominate MLAs Turton and Long, Sarah Geisler running for NDP nomination in Strathcona-Sherwood Park

Searle Turton was nominated as the UCP candidate in Spruce Grove-Stony Plain. Turton was first elected as MLA of the riding west of Edmonton in 2019 and was re-elected in 2023 with 56 per cent of the vote.

Turton currently serves as Minister of Children and Family Services.

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Alberta Politics

“Discriminatory” and unclear referendum questions discussed at MLA town hall in Calgary-Klein

Calgary-Klein MLA Lizette Tejada speaks to a crowd of constituents at her referendum town hall (source: Dave Cournoyer)
Calgary-Klein MLA Lizette Tejada speaks to a crowd of constituents at her referendum town hall (source: Dave Cournoyer)

I stopped by Calgary-Klein MLA Lizette Tejada’s referendum town hall at the Winston Heights Mountainview Community Association this week in Calgary.

With about 70 people in attendance, the crowd was heavily pro-Canada and raised a lot of concerns about the lack of clarity in the government’s 10 referendum questions and the confusing voting process, and what happens after October 19.

Tejada raised serious concerns about the referendum questions that ask Albertans to give the government permission to limit access to health care and education for immigrant workers and their families. Tejada described the questions as discriminatory and pretending to solve a problem that doesn’t exist.

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