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Alberta Politics

Livestream: Alberta Referendum Madness

Thank you to Jeremy Appel for inviting me to join his live stream over at The Orchard today where we discussed Alberta’s upcoming referenda, the politics of Alberta separatism and the United Conservative Party that led us to this point, and what might come next.

We also delved into a bit of history from Danielle Smith’s time as leader of the Wildrose Party and echos of the Social Credit era of Alberta politics.

Be sure to check out Jeremy’s new book, Dark Phoenix: The Rise, Fall, and Re-emergence of Danielle Smith, available on October 13, 2026 from Dundurn Press.

Watch the livestream on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith dug the separatist hole she’s now stuck in

UCP leader Danielle Smith on election night in Calgary (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)
UCP leader Danielle Smith on election night in Calgary (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)

Former conservative premiers Ralph Klein and Peter Lougheed told Alberta separatists to pound dirt

An Angus Reid survey released this week found that 56 per cent of Albertans believe Smith is handling the separatism issue poorly and 58 per cent believe she is calling the referendum to appease the separatists in her party. Sixty-nine per cent of Albertans surveyed believe the separatists will never accept a no vote result in the referendum.

Smith dug the political hole she now finds herself in. After years of bending over backward for the separatists in her party by amending laws, fuelling the flames of resentment, and appealing for them to the courts, she has found herself in a politically untenable situation. Simply claiming to be pro-Canada at the eleventh hour is hilariously unconvincing.

Read a lot more on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Yes, Alberta is actually having a separation referendum

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, US President-elect Donald Trump, and celebrity investor Kevin O’Leary (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, US President Donald Trump, and celebrity investor Kevin O’Leary (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)

There’s a lot happening following Premier Smith’s announcement last week that she has decided to hold a province-wide referendum on October 19, 2026 about Alberta’s separation from Canada. Here are some of the latest updates:

  • “The party won’t be taking a position and I won’t be making mine public,” UCP President Rob Smith told CBC Radio this week when asked if he or the governing party would pick a side in the Alberta separation referendum. Most polls show a majority of UCP voters support Alberta separating from Canada.
  • Environics and Angus Reid have released fresh polling about Albertans response to Smith’s separation referendum.
    • The Angus Reid survey found that 56 per cent of Albertans believe Smith is handling the issue poorly and 58 per cent believe she is calling the referendum to appease the separatists in her party.
    • Sixty-nine per cent of Albertans surveyed believe the separatists will never accept a no vote result in the referendum.

Read a lot more on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

NDP MLA Kyle Kasawski running for re-election in Sherwood Park

Sherwood Park NDP MLA Kyle Kasawski (source: Kyle Kasawski / Facebook)
Sherwood Park NDP MLA Kyle Kasawski (source: Kyle Kasawski / Facebook)

Danielle Smith’s Alberta separation referendum looms over party nominations for next election

MLA Kyle Kasawski was nominated to run for re-election in Sherwood Park by Alberta NDP members at a meeting last weekend in the large suburban hamlet east of Edmonton.

Kasawski currently serves as the opposition’s Affordability and Utilities critic role has been one of the strongest additions to the NDP opposition bench since 2023.

Kasawski has been vocal in his opposition to Alberta separatism and called on Premier Danielle Smith to speak out against foreign interference.

Read more on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Separatists are entrenched in Danielle Smith’s UCP and aren’t going away

The Alberta Prosperity Project’s Jeffrey Rath shows off the separatist group’s proposed referendum question in Calgary (source: Facebook).
The Alberta Prosperity Project’s Jeffrey Rath shows off the separatist group’s proposed referendum question in Calgary (source: Facebook).

Former conservative party premiers Peter Lougheed and Ralph Klein would have told the separatists to pound dirt and wouldn’t have allowed them to dig themselves into their party like they have in the UCP.

The referendum will almost certainly further deepen the divide in conservative politics in this province along pro-Canada and pro-separation lines.

In her press conference today, Smith called for the losing side of this referendum to “accept the judgement of people and the direction that we go.”

That seems unlikely.

This referendum is guaranteed to string out this debate.

Read a lot more on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Referendum for another referendum blocks Alberta’s unilateral declaration of independence

An AI-generated image of Premier Danielle Smith and US President Donald Trump celebrating an “Independent Republic of Alberta” shared by the anonymous pro-separation “Rise of Alberta” Instagram account (source: riseofalberta / Instagram)
An AI-generated image of Premier Danielle Smith and US President Donald Trump celebrating an “Independent Republic of Alberta” shared by the anonymous pro-separation “Rise of Alberta” Instagram account (source: riseofalberta / Instagram)

Grinding the gears of many separatist organizers is the referendum for another referendum-style question.

A referendum to hold a referendum to open constitutional negotiations is a pretty dry rally slogan and it robs more radical separatist elements of the temptation to just unilaterally declare independence if a clear separation question was successful.

Since there is no separation process in the Canadian constitution, we’ll have to guess what Smith believes the next steps would be. Legal minds I have spoken with suggest that the constitution would need to be amended and we all know how long and drawn out that process would be.

Some prominent separatist organizers have openly dangled the threat of American President Donald Trump immediately recognizing Alberta’s independence, forcing the hand of the federal government and other provinces that would want to undertake constitutional negotiations.

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Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith shows her love for Canada by holding a separation referendum

Premier Danielle Smith and separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre at a UCP fundraising dinner in Bonnyville in May 2025 (source: Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP / Facebook)
Premier Danielle Smith and separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre at a UCP fundraising dinner in Bonnyville in May 2025 (source: Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP / Facebook)

Does it make any sense? No. But not much does in Alberta politics these days.

“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”

That’s the referendum question that Premier Danielle Smith has decided to put on the 10th paper ballot that Albertans will be handed when they show up to vote on October 19, 2026.

Smith says the wordy multiple choice question was her only option because the court ruling quashing Elections Alberta’s approval of the separatist Stay Free Alberta citizen initiative petition ruled out a question where yes and no were the only answers.

Smith had an option to not hold the referendum at all but she opened this can of worms and it won’t easily be closed. The populist-turned-separatist-wing of the United Conservative Party that booted former premier Jason Kenney and then boosted Smith into the Premier’s Office is now firmly entrenched in the governing party — and they are not going away.

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Alberta Politics

UCP MLAs treat Forever Canadian’s Thomas Lukaszuk like a hostile witness

Before Glubish’s motion and the UCP’s pre-mature press release, MLAs on the committee heard from former Progressive Conservative MLA Thomas Lukaszuk, who headed last year’s successful Forever Canadian citizen initiative petition.

The UCP MLAs on the committee aggressively questioned Lukaszuk as if he were a hostile witness. It was strange to watch.

Lukaszuk’s petition, which asked the question “Do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada?” collected the signatures of more than 456,000 Albertans. But Lukaszuk and his legion of pro-Canada of volunteers clashed with the growing separatist-wing of the UCP.

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Alberta Politics

What a gong show! MLA committee chaos crashes UCP separation referendum motion

Leduc-Beaumont UCP MLA and and Special Citizen Initiative Proposal Review Committee chair Brandon Lunty (screenshot from assembly.ab.ca)
Leduc-Beaumont UCP MLA and and Special Citizen Initiative Proposal Review Committee chair Brandon Lunty (screenshot from assembly.ab.ca)

Trigger-happy UCP misfires with Mission Accomplished press release

Brandon Lunty looked like he wanted to crawl out of his own skin when he found out that the United Conservative Party Caucus sent out a press release announcing the adoption of a motion that hadn’t even been voted on yet.

As chair of the Special Citizen Initiative Proposal Review Committee, Leduc-Beaumont UCP MLA Lunty had one job today: to steer a motion through the committee to recommend the adoption of a referendum question on Alberta separation from Canada.

It should have been easy. The UCP has a 3-2 majority on the committee over the opposition NDP and Lunty controlled all the levers. The last minute scheduled hour and a half meeting that was only called on Monday should have given the UCP plenty of time to finish the task if only some poor staffer at the UCP Caucus hadn’t clicked send too early on the press release declaring it was a done deal.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Look who’s running in Alberta’s next provincial election

Alberta Legislature Building (source: Dave Cournoyer / 2011)
Alberta Legislature Building (source: Dave Cournoyer / 2011)

Longtime Daveberta readers will be familiar with my lists tracking party nomination and election candidates ahead of elections in Alberta.

I had planned to launch the list of candidates for the next provincial election when the Electoral Boundaries Commission final report was supposed to have been adopted this spring but, with the United Conservative Party tossing out the commission’s final report and appointing its own MLA committee to redraw the new riding map, I’ve decided not to wait.

Visit the Daveberta Substack to see the full list of candidates running in Alberta’s next provincial election

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NDP MLA Janis Irwin running for re-election in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood

Alberta NDP MLA Janis Irwin accepts her party's nomination for re-election in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood (source: Janis Irwin / Facebook)
Alberta NDP MLA Janis Irwin accepts her party's nomination for re-election in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood (source: Janis Irwin / Facebook)

Popular MLA Janis Irwin is running for re-election and was nominated as the Alberta NDP candidate in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood on May 3. The second-term MLA is the NDP’s housing critic and is a crowd favourite among Daveberta readers who for six years in a row have voted her Alberta’s Best MLA.

Irwin was first elected in the central Edmonton NDP stronghold in 2019 and was re-elected in 2023 with 71.4 per cent of the vote. Parts of the Highlands-Norwood riding in its various configurations over the decades have been represented by NDP MLAs in all but four years since 1982.

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Alberta Politics

Alberta cabinet shuffle rumoured soon – Nate Horner to be replaced by Jason Nixon

With the Legislative spring session ended, there is plenty of speculation that a major cabinet shuffle could happen this week. The changes in this shuffle are expected to reflect which ministers are planning to run for re-election in 2027, with retiring ministers leaving cabinet or moving to more junior positions and MLAs running for re-election appointed to more senior roles.

One of the biggest rumours that has been circulating for weeks is that Nate Horner will step down as Minister of Finance and be replaced by Jason Nixon, who currently serves as Minister of Assisted Living and Social Services.

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Alberta Politics

Calgary-Shaw by-election race heats up as Rebecca Schulz expected to resign any day now

Calgary City Councillor Dan McLean announces his candidacy for the UCP nomination in Calgary-Shaw (source: Dan McLean / Facebook)
Calgary City Councillor Dan McLean announces his candidacy for the UCP nomination in Calgary-Shaw (source: Dan McLean / Facebook)

City Councillor Dan McLean, Mike Derry, and Stewart Jeanes running for UCP nomination

It was one of the worst kept secrets in Calgary political circles that City Councillor Dan McLean was planning to jump into provincial politics and he is now running for United Conservative Party nomination in Calgary-Shaw.

The southwest Calgary riding is expected to become vacant when UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz, who resigned from cabinet last December, steps down as an MLA. Schulz delivered a farewell statement in the Legislature last week and shared a video on social media thanking voters in the riding for choosing her to represent them for the past seven years.

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New report finds Russian and Trump-aligned online disinformation campaigns targeting Alberta

The Globe & Mail reports that a study being released this week by the Global Centre for Democratic Resilience has identified Russian and Trump-aligned websites and social-media accounts that are being created to inflame the separatism debate in Alberta:

“The danger is not the existence of that debate. The danger is that foreign governments, state-aligned media, ideological networks, and profit-driven manipulation systems are seeking to distort it,” the report concludes.

“When external actors amplify separatist narratives, normalize annexation, encourage national rupture, or undermine confidence in democratic processes, the issue is no longer only a matter of provincial politics. It becomes a direct threat to Canada’s democratic integrity, national security, and cognitive sovereignty.”

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Danielle Smith makes her Alberta separatist problem our provincial problem

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks to the Canada Strong and Free Conference in Ottawa on May 8, 2026 (source: Canada Strong and Free Network / Facebook)
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks to the Canada Strong and Free Conference in Ottawa on May 8, 2026 (source: Canada Strong and Free Network / Facebook)

Jen Gerson penned an excellent op-ed in the Globe & Mail arguing that the biggest privacy breach of personal information in Alberta’s history presents Smith with a perfect opportunity to sever her party’s separatist wing (92 per cent of Alberta separatists are UCP supporters). Gerson is right that it is an opening for Smith but it might be politically impossible without tearing the UCP apart — something Smith won’t want to do.

Gerson argued forcefully on Ryan Jespersen’s Real Talk that Smith is making her political problem our provincial problem.

Many of the UCP’s most enthusiastic political activists, the ones who show up to constituency meetings and policy conventions, have also spent the past three months collecting signatures for the Stay Free Alberta citizen initiative to force a referendum on Alberta’s independence from Canada.

Many of those same activists cut their political teeth organizing opposition to COVID-19 public health measures and vaccinations, and embrace and promote the deep well of online conspiracy theories associated with that movement.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

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