Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche United Conservative Party MLA Laila Goodridge has been appointed as the federal Conservative Party candidate in Fort McMurray-Cold Lake following MP David Yurdiga’s decision to withdraw his candidacy on the day the election was called for September 20, 2021.
Yurdiga has represented the northern Alberta district since running in a 2014 by-election to replace former MP Brian Jean.
Goodridge has represented the northern Alberta district since running in a 2018 by-election to replace former MLA Brian Jean.
Goodridge was appointed parliamentary secretary responsible for Alberta’s francophonie in June 2019. Before her by-election win she worked as a political staffer in Fort McMurray and Ottawa and ran for the Wildrose Party in Grande Prairie-Wapiti in the 2015 election.
Her sudden entry into federal politics and almost certain election to parliament in this very safe Conservative seat (neither a Liberal or NDP candidate have been nominated yet – but the Maverick Party has a candidate) means that a provincial by-election will be triggered in the next six months.
This will be the first by-election since Premier Jason Kenney’s UCP formed government in April 2019. Amid Kenney’s plummeting approval ratings, his party’s drop in the public opinion polls and lacklustre fundraising, a by-election in what should be a safe UCP riding will be interesting litmus test for the Premier.
Rachel Notley’s NDP are likely eager to contest a by-election, but they probably hoped their first chance would be in Calgary or a friendlier locale. The NDP didn’t win this seat in the Orange Wave of 2015 and their candidate, Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Jane Stroud, placed a distant second in the 2018 by-election and 2019 general election.
Expectations of an NDP win in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche in 2021 would be low – though winning this by-election would be a big win for the NDP and a massive blow for the UCP – and Kenney.
A provincial by-election in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche will also offer Brian Jean a chance to leave the sidelines after four years of sniping at Kenney on social media and the Postmedia opinion pages. Jean left elected politics after Kenney and a kamikaze campaign defeated him in the 2017 UCP leadership race but he has remained a harsh critic of Kenney’s leadership and has publicly flirted with Alberta separatism.
Jean is rumoured to be considering running for the Alberta Party leadership and was spotted at the Stampede BBQ hosted by UCP MLAs-in-exile Drew Barnes and Todd Loewen last month in Calgary. He called on Kenney to resign in June, but it did not spark the rebellion that he may have hoped his words would have inspired.
A Brian Jean win in a Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche by-election could be the ultimate blow to Kenney that Jean is hoping to deliver.
A by-election in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche will need to be called before February 16, 2022.
The federal Liberal Party continues to nominate candidates in Alberta following yesterday’s federal election call, including the following candidates who were nominated yesterday:
- Scott Forsyth in Calgary-Heritage
- Zarnab Zafar in Calgary-Midnapore
- Olumide Adewumi in Red Deer-Mountain View