Category: Alberta Politics

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Alberta Politics

Six takeaways from Alberta’s Referendum and what’s next in our wild west politics

This photo of a defaced separatist campaign sign was widely circulated on social media following the failure of the Alberta separation referendum (source: Facebook)
This photo of a defaced separatist campaign sign was widely circulated on social media following the failure of the Alberta separation referendum (source: Facebook)

Albertans embrace staying in Canada, reject Danielle Smith’s constitutional reforms, give the UCP weak mandate on immigration questions

With 5,536 of 5,537 polling stations reporting and 20,514,670 total ballots cast, we now have a much better look at the results of Alberta’s 10 referendum questions than we did when the vote counting started late Monday night.

1. Support for Alberta remaining in Canada is strong across the board

Option 1 to support Alberta remaining a province in Canada has earned 1,545,242 votes so far, totalling 75% of the vote on the most high profile of the 10 referendum questions. Separatists appealing to Albertans in the final weeks of the campaign to send a message to Ottawa by voting for Option 2 to hold a future binding referendum on separation, earned 514,043 votes — 25% of the total province-wide vote.

The vote to remain in Canada was strong across Alberta but strongest in the two largest urban centres and in First Nations communities.

More than 80% of voters in every riding in Edmonton voted for Alberta to stay in Canada, and the remain side earned more than 75% of the vote in every Calgary riding. More than 79% of voters in the cities of Airdrie and Lethbridge and the Banff-Kananaskis riding supported remaining in Canada. Turnout reached historic highs in many First Nations communities with support more than 90% in favour of remaining in Canada.

Many ridings outside the big cities voted to remain by more than 60% and only a majority of voters in two ridings voted for Option 2 to hold another referendum to leave. Separatists earned 50.9% in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre and 50.3% in Central Peace-Notley ridings. Results were also close in the Drumheller-Stettler and Taber-Warner ridings.

It is worth noting that the separation option received less votes than the total number of signatures that would have been required to trigger a citizen initiative referendum when the Citizen Initiative Act was initially passed in 2021 (the signature threshold was later significantly lowered by Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party government to accommodate the separatist Stay Free Alberta petition).

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Alberta Politics

An Alberta referendum deep dive on Craft Politics

More than 6,000 Albertans rallied for their province to remain in a united Canada at a October 16 rally at the Edmonton Expo Centre (source: Dave Cournoyer)
More than 6,000 Albertans rallied for their province to remain in a united Canada at a October 16 rally at the Edmonton Expo Centre (source: Dave Cournoyer)

Alberta voted to stay. What now?

I joined Joseph Lavoie on Craft Politics for a deep dive discussion about Alberta’s referendum and how the results could impact Alberta politics and Premier Danielle Smith’s future as leader of the United Conservative Party.

We also discussed how the results of the Alberta separation question and the nine immigration and constitutional questions are a sign of a growing urban-rural divide in Alberta politics (and how the recent NDP win in Calgary-Shaw could reflect urban Albertans unhappiness with the UCP government’s referendum agenda).

Thank you to Joseph for inviting me on the podcast. Be sure to subscribe to Craft Politics on your podcast listening app of choice or watch their interviews on YouTube.

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Alberta Politics

Alberta separatists say they are just getting started

Alberta separation supporters at the Alberta Legislature on August 29, 2026 (photo: Dave Cournoyer)
Alberta separation supporters at the Alberta Legislature on August 29, 2026 (photo: Dave Cournoyer)

Albertans clearly rejected leaving Canada in yesterday’s vote, but the leaders of Alberta’s various separatist factions made it clear on Monday that even in defeat this referendum represents a victory for their movement.

“The percentage vote is irrelevant because we have already won,” wrote the Alberta Prosperity Project’s Jeffrey Rath on X. “Regardless of the outcome tomorrow we have already won the first series of battles in the war for Alberta Independence.”

The controversial lawyer and co-leader of the Alberta Prosperity Project who spread conspiracy theories online about the CFB Wainwright disaster last weekend, also wrote that “[o]n Tuesday we move on to the next phase of our project. We dedicate ourselves and all of our volunteers to the replacement of the Federalist Smith as leader of the Alberta UCP. We will confirm that the UCP is Alberta’s leading Independence Party.”

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Alberta Politics

Support for remaining in Canada is everywhere in Alberta

At first glance of the results, support for Alberta remaining in Canada is strong across the province, and strongest in the large cities of Calgary and Edmonton and overwhelming in First Nations communities.

The separatists had their best results in rural areas, as was expected, but only have a majority in one riding. That’s Central Peace-Notley, with 5,272 votes for leaving and 5,041 votes for staying in Canada. The northwest Alberta riding is represented by United Conservative Party cabinet minister Todd Loewen, who was first elected as a Wildrose Party MLA in 2015 and is an alumnus of the Ottawa Freedom Convoy.

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Alberta Politics

Albertans overwhelmingly vote to stay in Canada, separatists say they are just getting started

A large crowd of pro-Canada supporters gathered at the Alberta Legislature on October 18 (source: Dave Cournoyer)
A large crowd of pro-Canada supporters gathered at the Alberta Legislature on October 18 (source: Dave Cournoyer)

Support for remaining in Canada is everywhere in Alberta

Here we are. After five months of Alberta politics feeling like a weird fever dream, Albertans have cast their ballots and we have the results of Alberta’s non-binding separation referendum. Well, some results.

As of this morning, with 4,250 of 5,586 polling stations reporting, 75.9% of Albertans voted to remain in Canada, and 24.1% voted to commence the legal process to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.

Results for the nine other referendum questions are much more sparse at this point in the count. Though the results are closer, it looks like eight of the nine are set to pass. The question about allowing the provincial government to opt out of federal programs but still receive the federal funding is heading for defeat at this point in the count.

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Alberta Politics

Captain Forever Canadian Thomas Lukaszuk

Forever Canadian leader Thomas Lukaszuk (source: Forever Canadian / Facebook)
Forever Canadian leader Thomas Lukaszuk (source: Forever Canadian / Facebook)

Former PC cabinet minister put himself out there and led the pro-Canada crew from the beginning

Prime Minister Mark Carney was the big draw at the rally and has comfortably stepped into the Alberta referendum campaign as Captain Canada. The Prime Minister drew the biggest cheers from the energetic crowd of Edmontonians but it was Forever Canadian founder Thomas Lukaszuk who walked on the stage as one of the biggest stars of this referendum campaign.

The former four-term Progressive Conservative MLA from Edmonton-Castle Downs and provincial cabinet minister, known for his flamboyant hair and flashy and confrontational style in the Legislature, took a very public stand against separatism early in this latest round of the Alberta independence debate. Lukaszuk put himself out there when no other conservative politician, current or former, wanted to touch the issue with a 10-metre pole.

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Alberta Politics

Referendum has been a mismanaged mess, says UCP constituency president

Premier Danielle Smith and separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre at a UCP fundraising dinner in Bonnyville in May 2025 (source: Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP / Facebook)
Premier Danielle Smith and separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre at a UCP fundraising dinner in Bonnyville in May 2025 (source: Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP / Facebook)

Alberta Prosperity Project CEO Mitch Sylvestre is encouraging voters to “decline the nine” by not bother voting for Smith’s nine referendum questions and only voting in the separation question.

“We promised long ago that this movement would not lend its name to bogus referendum questions. We are keeping that promise,” Sylvestre wrote in a message to APP supporters.

“Let’s be honest. From start to finish, this referendum has been a mismanaged mess, brought to you by a government that chose to pander rather than keep its promises on a fair democratic process,” wrote Sylvestre, who is President of the UCP constituency association in Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul riding and was the winner of the UCP’s 2025 Best Fundraiser Award and 2024 Best Constituency President Award.

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Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith deflects, encourages Albertans to vote “yes to the rest”

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks to the Canada Strong and Free Conference in Ottawa on May 8, 2026 (source: Canada Strong and Free Network / Facebook)
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks to the Canada Strong and Free Conference in Ottawa on May 8, 2026 (source: Canada Strong and Free Network / Facebook)

Ahead of what could be an awkward meeting with Mark Carney today in Red Deer, Premier Danielle Smith attempted to downplay the Prime Minister’s comments in her own response posted on social media.

Despite Smith’s attempts to position herself as a pro-Canadian force in the upcoming referendums, she has found herself in a very uncomfortable position after deciding to appease the separatist activists entrenched in the UCP by calling the referendum in the first place.

Polling shows that her vague positioning has led large numbers of separatists to believe she is federalist and large numbers of federalists to believe she is a separatist.

This perception has probably been made stronger by the UCP government’s $4 million advertising campaign that promotes confused and unfocused messaging about Alberta being strong and sovereign within Canada but not actually taking a strong position either way.

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Alberta Politics

Mark Carney is No to the Nine

A Public Interest Alberta volunteer campaigning in Calgary ahead of the October 19 referendum (source: Brad Lafortune)
A Public Interest Alberta volunteer campaigning in Calgary ahead of the October 19 referendum (source: Brad Lafortune)

Danielle Smith deflects with yes to the rest and Mitch Sylvestre tells separatists to decline the nine

Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Alberta campaigning for the province to remain in Canada ahead of the October 19 referendum — and he is No to the Nine.

The importance of Alberta remaining in Canada was Carney’s main focus when he spoke to a crowd of more than 7,000 in Calgary last night, but he made his first foray into the nine other referendum questions restricting services for immigrants and pushing constitutional changes at an event organized by Public Interest Alberta’s Together — No! campaign in Calgary yesterday.

“…we make ourselves stronger as a country, stronger as Albertans. Why? So we can live our lives as we want,” Carney said in a video shared by Politico Canada reporter Mickey Djuric, before he encouraged the crowd to vote “no to the nine.”

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Alberta Politics

UCP President Rob Smith rebukes calls to purge party’s separatist wing

Premier Danielle Smith and separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre at a UCP fundraising dinner in Bonnyville in May 2025 (source: Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP / Facebook)
Premier Danielle Smith and separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre at a UCP fundraising dinner in Bonnyville in May 2025 (source: Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP / Facebook)

United Conservative Party president Rob Smith took to Facebook to rebuke calls to purge the governing party of its separatist wing if Albertans overwhelmingly vote to remain in Canada on October 19.

Smith’s comments were aimed at former party leader Jason Kenney, who said earlier this week that the UCP should reaffirm its federalist position and separatists should leave to form their own party.

“There’s no doubt that those folks have infiltrated (the party),” Kenney said at an Edmonton Chamber of Commerce luncheon. “They’re welcome to participate in democracy, but if their primary goal is separation, then they have to do it in a separatist party,” he said.

“You’re either for Canada, national unity, or you’re not, and if you’re still a citizen, you’re welcome to be involved in democracy. Go and do that in a separatist party,” Kenney said.

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Alberta Politics

Nenshi’s NDP delivers final pre-referendum pitch, turns to GOTV ahead of October 19

Former premier Rachel Notley spoke to a crowd at the Alberta NDP’s final Vote to Save Canada rally in Edmonton (screenshot: Alberta NDP / YouTube)
Former premier Rachel Notley spoke to a crowd at the Alberta NDP’s final Vote to Save Canada rally in Edmonton (screenshot: Alberta NDP / YouTube)
4-days until Referendum Day in Alberta

Edmonton has been an Alberta NDP stronghold for the last decade as city voters have shown up in droves to vote orange, so it was appropriate that the party ended its province-wide Vote to Save Canada rally tour last night in the provincial capital.

With four days left until the Referendum Day on October 19, NDP leader Naheed Nenshi was joined by former premier Rachel Notley at the rally at the Polish Hall in the centre of the city.

Notley led the NDP from 2014 to 2024 and served as Premier of Alberta from 2015 to 2019 and she remains a popular figure among NDP supporters. After stepping down as the MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona in 2024, she has reemerged into the spotlight to oppose separatism and the immigration questions on the referendum ballot.

“We have a job to do and that is to get people out to vote,” Notley said to a large crowd at the Polish Hall in Edmonton as she turned her criticism to Premier Danielle Smith.

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The Alberta-British Columbia election connection

It wouldn’t be an election in British Columbia if there weren’t people with Alberta connections involved.

Miriam Rycroft is the NDP candidate in the Kelowna-Mission riding in the Okanagan region of BC. Rycroft was a ministerial chief of staff during the Alberta NDP’s time in government and worked as Director of Tour and Scheduling in Premier Rachel Notley’s office. She was President of the Edmonton-Glenora NDP constituency association in 2024.

Politicos with prominent Alberta ties are leading the different parties campaigns.

  • BC NDP campaign chair Cheryl Oates was Executive Director of Communications and Planning for Premier Notley from 2015 to 2019 and worked as communications director for the NDP caucus during the its final years as a 4 MLA opposition.
  • BC Conservative Party campaign manager Katy Merrifield worked as communications director in Premier Jason Kenney’s office and was later the Executive Director of Communications and Engagement for the Alberta government’s Canadian Centre for Recovery Excellence.
  • BC Green Party communications chair Mike Hudema was a prominent environmental activist in Alberta in the 2000s, ran for the Alberta NDP in Edmonton-Meadowlark in the 2001 provincial election, and was elected president of the University of Alberta Students’ Union in 2002.
  • OneBC Party communications director Wyatt Claypool is currently running for the UCP nomination in Calgary-Currie and was a candidate for the federal Conservative nomination in Calgary Signal Hill in 2022.

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Alberta Politics

Michelle Mather nominated as UCP candidate in Calgary-Glenmore

Michelle Mather won the UCP nomination in Calgary-Glenmore (photo source: Michelle Mather / Facebook)
Michelle Mather won the UCP nomination in Calgary-Glenmore (photo source: Michelle Mather / Facebook)

Michelle Mather defeated Sanjeev Kad with 482 votes to 101 votes to win the UCP nomination in Calgary-Glenmore. Mather is co-founder of a number of companies, including Horizon6ix Capital Corp and DrillGear Oilfield Solutions Corporation, and co-founder of the Bridges Calgary Association. She also ran for the UCP nomination in Calgary-Lougheed ahead of the 2023 provincial election.

The riding is currently represented by NDP MLA Nagwan Al-Guneid, who won by a narrow 48 votes in 2023. Al-Guneid was a star candidate for Notley’s NDP in 2023, but she announced last month that she will not seek re-election in 2027.

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Alberta Politics

Mark Carney, Naheed Nenshi, and Rachel Notley headline pro-Canada rallies days before Alberta referendum

Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Albertans at a Forever Canadian event in Banff in September 2026 (source: Mark Carney / Facebook)
Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Albertans at a Forever Canadian event in Banff in September 2026 (source: Mark Carney / Facebook)

We are in the final stretch of one of the strangest periods in Alberta’s political history, and a gauntlet of rallies are being held this week across the province.

Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi and former premier Rachel Notley are sharing a stage at a Vote to Save Canada rally at the Polish Hall in Edmonton on October 14 and Prime Minister Mark Carney will be appearing with former Progressive Conservative politician Thomas Lukaszuk at Forever Canadian rallies at the BMO Centre in Calgary on October 15 and at the Expo Centre in Edmonton on October 16.

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Avnish Nanda: Let’s crush Alberta separatism together; vote remain and no to the nine.

The Province of Alberta was created on September 1, 1905, a year remembered on the Centennial Flame monument on Parliament Hill in Ottawa. (photo: Dave Cournoyer)
The Province of Alberta was created on September 1, 1905, a year remembered on the Centennial Flame monument on Parliament Hill in Ottawa. (photo: Dave Cournoyer)

Falling for the trap — voting yes —only strengthens the resolve of separatists.

Over the past eight months, Our Alberta Advantage has spoken to hundreds of thousands of Albertans about the risk this fall’s referendum poses to the province. Tens of thousands of those conversations have been in person — in community halls, temple basements, and the living rooms and kitchen tables of Albertans who belong to the array of cultural communities that weave the rich and diverse social tapestry that is Alberta.

Our Alberta Advantage was the first third party advertiser registered with Elections Alberta for the referendum. It formed shortly after Premier Danielle Smith announced that she would put to Albertans a series of immigration and constitutional questions. At the time, as a lawyer in my day job, I had acted for a federalist organization opposed to Premier Smith’s bulldozing of legislative safeguards to appease the separatists and clear a path to a binding independence referendum. After watching Premier Smith’s televised address outlining the referendum questions, I knew that the initiative was part of her broader agenda to maintain support of the separatist faction that is at the core of her political (re)ascendence.

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