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Alberta Politics

Can Nenshi charm the NDP old guard? He’ll need to at this weekend’s Provincial Council meeting

First, the Lethbridge by-election; then the federal NDP – do they stay or do they go?

The next step in the Alberta NDP’s transformation from Rachel Notley’s NDP to Naheed Nenshi’s NDP takes place this weekend in Calgary.

NDP members from across Alberta will gather in the province’s largest city this weekend for the party’s first meeting of its Provincial Council since Nenshi won his landslide victory in the race to replace Notley.

Nenshi’s 84% win with 62,746 votes means there is no doubt who the vast majority of the party’s membership wanted as leader. But meaningfully connecting with the people in the room this weekend will be Nenshi’s next big step.

Expect a charm offensive.

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Alberta Politics

Long list of COVID-19 grievances could head to UCP AGM policy debate

It’s hard to imagine the old PC Party getting bogged down by this debate

If I had walked into the Alberta Legislature ten years ago and told an MLA, staffer, or journalist that in 2024 the province’s political landscape would be a competitive two-party system, I probably would have been laughed out of the Rotunda. They might have even alerted a security guard if I’d been so out of my mind to predict that the New Democratic Party would be competing with the conservatives to form Alberta’s government.

Until that point ten years ago, only twice in the Progressive Conservative Party’s four decades of uninterrupted majority governments had the dynasty been seriously challenged in an election. The PC Party was unquestionably Alberta’s Natural Governing Party.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

It’s all about the UCP leadership review

Protected rights for the unvaccinated and tax cuts aimed at appeasing unruly UCP members ahead of November vote

Summer is normally a time when politics cools down and politicians hit the BBQ circuit, but there’s something smelly in the air and it’s not just the wildfire smoke that Albertans have become accustomed to being part of our increasingly hot summers.

A political scandal surrounding Premier Danielle Smith and senior United Conservative Party cabinet ministers accepting tickets to skybox seats during the Edmonton Oilers NHL playoff run has erupted. Globe & Mail journalist Carrie Tait first broke the story that Smith and some UCP cabinet ministers had accepted box seat tickets to NHL playoff hockey games from private corporations that have close connections to or are lobbying the Alberta government.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

UCP launches attacks ads at Nenshi. Nenshi laughs it off and shoots back.

Politics in Alberta doesn’t skip a beat.

Less than a week after former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi won a landslide victory in the Alberta NDP leadership race, the United Conservative Party has launched a series of attack ads against him, framing the new NDP leader as “Justin Trudeau’s choice for Alberta” and “just another tax and spend Liberal.”

Nenshi’s team tossed out the old NDP playbook.

Instead of stumbling over fancy words and getting overly defensive (or even worse, ignoring the charge), Nenshi laughed off the attack and shot back with his own stinging criticism of Smith’s UCP.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

NDP to announce new leader and Conservatives vote in Calgary Signal Hill

Calgary is in the headlines a lot these days, but today’s Daveberta newsletter doesn’t have anything to do with the busted water main that is threatening the city’s water supply (but I do hope to write more about that later).

Today’s newsletter focuses on two big political events happening in Alberta’s largest city this weekend: the announcement of the NDP leadership vote and the federal Conservative nomination vote in Calgary Signal Hill.

Read more on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Alberta politicians betting on the Stanley Cup

Harmless fun or shameless stunt? Does it matter?! Go Oilers!

As hockey fans pour into Rogers Place tonight to watch the Edmonton Oilers face the Florida Panthers in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals, their focus will be on the rink. Most fans probably won’t be giving much thought about what their local or provincial politicians think about the game (as long as they are cheering for the home team).

Playoff season in Alberta is exciting and it also means that politicians have jumped on the Oilers bandwagon with the long-held tradition of making public bets with politicians from the city or state of the opposing team. Whether you believe it’s a shameless media stunt or just harmless fun, there’s no stopping them.

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Alberta Politics

Say hello to the Calgary NDP

Alberta NDP membership sales surged in Calgary, leaving Edmonton in the dust

The Alberta NDP announced last week that the party’s membership list has surged to 85,144 members in the race to replace party leader Rachel Notley. And the largest group of Alberta NDP members are now in Calgary.

How the times have changed.

Read the full column on the Daveberta Substack.

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Alberta Politics

Controlling Everything Everywhere All At Once

NDP’s Oscar-winning film inspired catch phrase captures the UCP moment in Alberta politics

“Danielle Smith wants to control everything, everywhere, all at once…”

In the middle of the weekly chaos of Alberta politics, a catch phrase inspired by an Academy Award winning film has captured one of the driving themes of Alberta politics today.

Danielle Smith wants to control everything. Pensions, police, health care, schools, local councils. Any dollar spent anywhere in the province, and any decision made by anyone. Everything,” NDP MLA Kyle Kasawski first said in an April 29 press release.

Kasawski is the rookie MLA from Sherwood Park who became the opposition’s sole Municipal Affairs critic when co-critic Sarah Hoffman joined the NDP leadership race earlier this year.

While Municipal Affairs can sometimes be a sleepy file, on both the ministerial and critic side, it has been front and centre over the past month as Premier Danielle Smith and Minister Ric McIver rein in municipal and university funding agreements with the federal government and expand the provincial cabinet’s power to fire locally elected officials and overturn municipal bylaws.

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Alberta Politics Daveberta Podcast

“We win by being more New Democrat, not less,” says NDP leadership candidate Gil McGowan

Longtime labour leader joins the Daveberta Podcast to explain why he’s running for the Alberta NDP leadership

Labour leader Gil McGowan joins the Daveberta Podcast to share why he’s running to succeed Rachel Notley as leader of Alberta’s NDP.

The full interview with Gil McGowan is available to paid subscribers of the Daveberta Substack

McGowan was first elected as President of the Alberta Federation of Labour in 2005 and is an outspoken advocate for working Albertans, especially when it comes to the impact of the incoming energy transition on the province’s workforce. He has been one of the most vocal critics of the United Conservative Party government’s plan to withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan.

The Daveberta Podcast is hosted by Dave Cournoyer and produced by Adam Rozenhart. This episode was recorded on April 30, 2024 in comfort of the fully-furnished bank vault-turned-podcast studio in the basement of the Homestead building in beautiful downtown Edmonton.

The full interview with Gil McGowan is available to paid subscribers of the Daveberta Substack

New and recent episodes of the podcast are available to paid subscribers of the Daveberta Substack. Sign up for an annual or monthly subscription to listen to the whole episode.

Extra! Paid subscribers can also read a federal nomination update accompanying today’s podcast about former Enoch Cree Nation Chief Billy Morin being acclaimed as the federal Conservative candidate in the new Edmonton Northwest riding.

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Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith’s UCP comes down hard on Alberta’s municipalities

Changes will send chills through municipal councils and create a lot of grief for MLAs

One of my goals when I moved Daveberta over to this Substack newsletter in 2022 was to take a different approach to writing about Alberta politics. For 17 years I published, sometimes, almost daily commentary on Alberta politics. Now, being on this site gives me a chance to take a breath, observe, and not feel like I need to rush analysis of what’s happening on our province’s political scene.

With that in mind, it has been very interesting to watch over the past week how Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party government has unrolled its suite of changes to municipal governance and local election laws, and responded to the loud backlash from municipal leaders.

The UCP has spent a lot of political capital and government resources in its ongoing jurisdictional fights with the federal Liberal government in Ottawa, but Smith’s sovereignty agenda isn’t limited to challenging the powers of the federal government. This week’s Bill 20, Municipal Affairs Statutes Amendment Act and last month’s Bill 18, Provincial Priorities Act are aimed at removing decision making powers from Alberta’s locally elected leaders and increasing the powers of the provincial government.

The drastic changes to the Local Authorities Election Act and the Municipal Government Act introduced by Minister of Municipal Affairs Ric McIver gives the provincial government sweeping powers to overturn municipal bylaws and increased powers to remove locally elected municipal mayors, councillors, and school board trustees.

Changes also include legalizing corporate and union donations to municipal candidates and introducing a formal structure for political parties in municipal elections in Calgary and Edmonton.

It’s hard to imagine how most of these changes would improve municipal government or municipal elections, or that there is even broad support for some of these changes (there isn’t).

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack.

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Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith’s Fundraising Machine

A special weekend episode of the Daveberta Podcast

It’s rare that I send out a newsletter on the weekend but I thought subscribers would enjoy listening to a new episode of the Daveberta Podcast we recorded this week.

We cover a lot of ground in this episode of the Daveberta Podcast, including:

  • Premier Danielle Smith’s recent packed leader’s dinner fundraisers in Calgary, Edmonton, Red Deer and Bonnyville.
  • how the Alberta NDP leadership candidates are leaning into digital advertising on the Meta platform and what this might say about their campaigns.
  • how federal boundary changes are impacting the electoral map in south east Edmonton (I’m calling it the Mill Woods Shuffle) and former Progressive Conservative MLA Naresh Bhardwaj’s campaign for the Conservative nomination in the new Edmonton-Southeast riding (I’ve updated the list).
  • how electoral boundary commissions work in Alberta (one of my favourite topics).

The full episode of this Daveberta Podcast is available to paid subscribers of the Daveberta Substack.

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Alberta Politics

Alberta NDP announces pre-Calgary Stampede leadership vote

Race to replace Rachel Notley starts on Feb. 5, new leader to be named on June 22. Yahoo!

If you had told me ten years ago, on January 30, 2014, that the perceived frontrunners for the Alberta NDP leadership race in 2024 would be the MLAs for Calgary-Mountain ViewEdmonton-Glenora and Edmonton-Whitemud, I probably would have laughed. Ten years ago today, Rachel Notley was nine months away from becoming NDP leader and none of these ridings would have even been on that party’s radar as winnable at that point.

Probably the most believable prediction from a decade ago might have been that then-Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith would be Premier in 2024, but there’s no way anyone back then could have predicted her path to the Premier’s Office today.

It’s hard to imagine a modern NDP in this province without Notley at its helm. She took the party from the fourth place fringe to government and solidified it as a political force in Alberta. As the NDP prepares to choose her successor, it’s even hard to compare the current version of the NDP to its pre-Notley version.

That’s a reality that NDP members from across Alberta are having to come to terms with after debating and discussing the leadership race at Red Deer Polytechnic last weekend.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack.

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Thank you.

Thank you to everyone who has read, subscribed and shared my Daveberta Alberta politics columns.

I truly appreciate the support and feedback I’ve received from readers and subscribers since I first started publishing my Alberta politics column on Substack last year.

I’m excited to announce that we will be launching Season 7 of the Daveberta Podcast in the next few weeks with some exciting guests. I’m looking forward to returning the podcast to a regular monthly schedule in 2024.

And, in case you missed it, be sure to read my recent columns about the 10 things I’m watching in Alberta politics in 2024 and how Rachel Notley made the NDP relevant in Alberta politics.

Thanks again,

Dave

Categories
Alberta Politics

10 things I’m watching in Alberta politics in 2024

From the price of oil to the influence of right-wing populist groups to the NDP leadership race and more

January is usually a quiet month in politics, making it a good time to look ahead at what to expect in the year to come. Here are ten things I will be watching that could have a big impact on Alberta politics in 2024:

1. Price of oil

Alberta is probably the only province where the international price of oil is at the top of the Premier’s daily briefing notes. The price of oil not only has a big impact on a lot of Albertans’ jobs, but also the provincial government’s revenue stream.

Relying heavily on the price of oil to pay for the day to day operations of public services, the Alberta government’s 2023/2024 budget projected as much as 25 percent of its revenue will come from oil and gas royalties.

If we go into this coming fiscal year starting April 1 with $72 per barrel, that might put the government into a situation where they either have to revise their spending plans or face a modest deficit,” University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe told CBC.

In Alberta, governments live and die by the price of oil.

2. Influence of right-wing populist and separatist groups

Without a doubt the influence of populist and separatist groups has grown in Alberta politics in recent years. Nowhere is this more pronounced than inside the governing United Conservative Party since Danielle Smith became Premier in October 2022 after riding the wave of populist discontent that pushed out former premier Jason Kenney.

In the closing months of 2023, newly elected UCP President Rob Smith spent nearly two hours on a livestream hosted by Alberta Prosperity Project CEO Chris Scott and past Independence Party of Alberta candidate Kerry Lambert.

The APP has advocated for the creation of a Republic of Alberta and is currently calling for a referendum on Alberta’s independence from Canada. Scott gained notoriety in conservative circles during the COVID-19 pandemic when his restaurant in the central Alberta hamlet of Mirror remained open in contravention of public health rules.

Also, in the final days of 2023, the UCP highlighted an endorsement from University of Calgary professor Barry Cooper in its year-end fundraising pitch on social media. Cooper has compared Alberta to pre-revolutionary colonial America in 1775 and has called for a referendum on separation from Canada. He is also a co-founder of the Free Alberta Strategy, an autonomist documentchampioned by Premier Smith’s Chief of Staff Rob Anderson.

And, on January 24, Smith will host and interview American media personality and conspiracy theorist Tucker Carlson at an event in Calgary that has been promoted by the APP and other influential right-wing groups like Alberta Proud, and Take Back Alberta (which is reported to be under investigation by Elections Alberta).

3. The race to replace Rachel Notley

It is hard to imagine the modern Alberta NDP without Rachel Notley, but she announced last week that she will not lead the NDP into the 2027 election and will step down as leader when her successor is chosen, likely later this year.

The leadership race jockeying has already begun, with at least five MLAs sending signals that they plan to run: Calgary-Mountain View MLA Kathleen Ganley, Edmonton-Glenora MLA Sarah Hoffman, Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Rakhi Pancholi, Edmonton-City Centre MLA David Shepherd, and Edmonton-Rutherford MLA Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse.

The NDP Provincial Council will meet on January 27 to discuss timelines and rules for the leadership race. The winner of the race will lead the 38-MLA NDP Caucus into 2025 and the party into the 2027 provincial election.

I am planning to write a lot more about this leadership race in the weeks and months to come.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack.

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Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith’s post-election honeymoon is over

The seasons are changing and it’s not just the weather – the political seasons are changing too.

The first snow has fallen and the cold north winds are blowing across Alberta. The seasons are changing and it’s not just limited to the weather – the political seasons are changing too.

Five months after the 2023 provincial election, Alberta’s politicians will be back in the provincial capital on October 30 to start the first substantial sitting of this Legislative Assembly. MLAs met shortly after the election to choose a Speaker for the new Assembly (Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills MLA Nathan Cooper) but this fall’s session will see Premier Danielle Smith’s re-elected United Conservative Party government introduce its legislative agenda.

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Alberta Politics

NDP nominate 4 more federal election candidates in Alberta, Nigel Logan wins contested vote in Edmonton-Mill Woods

Another quick federal election candidate nomination update this morning:

  • Nigel Logan defeated Satbir Singh in a contested online nomination vote in Edmonton-Mill Woods. Logan was the NDP candidate in this district in the 2019 federal election and ran for city council in 2017.
  • Patrick King has been nominated as the NDP candidate in Calgary-Signal Hill. King was the NDP candidate in Calgary-Nose Hill in the 2019 federal election.
  • Sarah Zagoda has been nominated as the NDP candidate in Banff-Airdrie.
  • Tanya Heyden-Kaye has been nominated as the NDP candidate in Red Deer-Lacombe.
  • Joan Barnes is running as an Independent candidate in Red Deer-Lacombe.
  • Clayten Willington is running as an Independent candidate in Red Deer-Mountain View
  • Scott Fea is running for the Rhinoceros Party in Calgary-Centre.
  • Maverick Party candidate Fred Sirett has listed his name as Frederick Frederick on the ballot in Lakeland, according to his listing on the Elections Canada website.

Thank you to everyone who has sent me updates about new candidate nominations. I’ll be back on Monday with more nomination updates. Have a great weekend.