Jason Kenney accepting the leadership of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party in March 2017
Politics makes strange bedfellows. It’s amazing how much can change in 10 years.
I was recently reminded that it was only 10 years ago that Jason Kenney was campaigning for the leadership of Alberta’s Progressive Conservative Party. With everything that has happened in Alberta politics since then, it feels like it might as well have been 20 years ago.
The longtime Calgary MP and former federal cabinet minister set his sights on “uniting the right” after the PC Party’s 43-year long streak as govermment was ended in spectacular fashion by Rachel Notley’s Alberta NDP in the 2015 election.
The PC Party’s loss and the NDP’s win was a shock to Alberta’s political system.
Decades of one-party dominance in Alberta (that even preceded the PCs) created a system centered around a PC Party with a big tent that spanned the political spectrum. The PC Party’s survival instincts and electoral success were matched only by the Liberal Party of Canada — another natural governing party that adapted and recreated itself again and again over the last century to get in front of the parade of public opinion.
This is the third in a series of Daveberta Podcast episodes I’m calling Daveberta In Session. In these short episodes available to paid subscribers, I’ll sharing a few key things that I’m watching in Alberta politics this week and some other things that have caught my attention.
In today’s Daveberta Podcast episode, I discuss:
Premier Danielle Smith reluctantly admitted last week to taking jet flights and hotel stays from a Saudi Arabian prince that were not previously disclosed during her recent trip to the Middle East. The secret Saudi side trip is raising questions about loose ethics and disclosure rules.
Smith charmed rural municipal leaders at the recent Rural Municipalities of Alberta convention in Edmonton. A new report from a joint government working group acknowledges that unpaid property taxes from oil and gas companies are a sore spot for rural municipal governments and proposes solutions for the future, but not much hope that the already due back-taxes will ever get paid.
A new report from the Alberta Council of Women’s Shelters highlights the importance of investing in transportation in rural communities in order to save lives and makes four recommendations.
The ongoing police investigation and expected Auditor General report into serious allegations of corruption and political interference involving hundreds of millions of dollars in medical supply procurement and private surgical contracts by the provincial government. MLAs will soon select a new Auditor General before Doug Wylie retires on April 28.
A few things I’ll be watching in Alberta politics in the week ahead, including the final report of the Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission, Smith and energy minister Brian Jean’s trip to CERAWeek in Houston, Texas (federal Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson will be there too), and the federal NDP leadership vote next weekend.
I decided to test this podcast series during the spring session of the Alberta Legislature. I’m planning to do this for most weeks until the Assembly breaks for the summer — and then we’ll see where we go from there.
Thank you for subscribing and listening to this episode of the Daveberta Podcast. A sincere thank you to new paid subscribers, Selena, Megan, Sandeep, and Nate.
Share your feedback in the comments and if you enjoyed the podcast feel free to share it with a friend.
Alberta is getting a new electoral map and the commissioners tasked with the job of redrawing the province’s political boundaries released their interim report in October.
The Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission is now collecting input about the interim map before the commissioners go back to the drawing board to sketch out their final report, which will be submitted to Speaker Ric McIver by March 28, 2026.
The new map would be used for the next provincial election if it is approved by the Legislature and if a provincial election isn’t called next spring, as some political watchers suspect could happen.
The Alberta NDP are scheduled to nominate a candidate in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills by-election on June 14, but rumours are circulating that Premier Danielle Smith could call that by-election along with two others in Edmonton-Ellerslie and Edmonton-Strathcona very soon.
The UCP announced last week that Alberta Grains chairperson Tara Sawyer had been appointed as the party’s candidate in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. Sawyer’s appointment happened without an open nomination race, which is likely an indication the UCP was concerned a pro-separatist candidate could possibly create a messy nomination contest in that rural central Alberta riding.
The Alberta Prosperity Project’s Jeffrey Rath shows off the separatist group’s proposed referendum question in Calgary (source: Facebook).
Is Premier Danielle Smith a separatist? Is the UCP a separatist party?
The biggest difference between today’s Alberta separatist push and past efforts is that today’s most vocal separatists are operating within the governing UCP. Premier Danielle Smith gave her tacit public support for these groups in an online video address earlier this month and she knows that any direct effort to try to stop it would turn those groups, which included some of the UCP’s most enthusiastic activists, against her.
Many of those enthusiastic separatists inside the UCP helped topple former Premier Jason Kenney in 2022 and propel Smith to victory in the leadership race that followed. Writer Jen Gerson cleverly described Smith’s situation through one rule of politics: you get ate by the dragon you ride in on.
United Conservative Leader Danielle Smith says she won’t be campaigning on some of her party’s more contentious ideas — sovereignty legislation, a provincial police force and an Alberta pension plan — ahead of the May 29 election.
The reason why this story is notable is because of how much of the re-elected UCP’s political agenda today focuses on those three things Smith specifically didn’t want to talk about during the campaign.
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It’s not unusual for parties that form government to back away from campaign promises or even implement policies they didn’t campaign on at all. But it feels a little more unusual for a party leader to implement policies she said she didn’t want to talk about during a 28-day election campaign that happened less than a year ago.
It was a shameless and cynical move, because despite Smith saying she didn’t want to campaign on those issues during the election, it was clear the UCP was going to move forward on pensions, police and sovereignty if they were re-elected.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith delivers a pre-budget televised address on February 21, 2024 (source: YourAlberta / YouTube)
It was 1975 and Lougheed’s PCs were swimming in oil money like Scrooge McDuck
The Heritage Savings Trust Fund was front and centre in Premier Danielle Smith‘s pre-budget televised speech last week, so there’s a good chance Albertans are going to hear a lot about it when Finance Minister Nate Horner rises in the Legislative Assembly this afternoon to table the provincial government’s annual budget.
In her 8-minute address to Albertans, Smith said she wants to funnel oil and gas royalty revenues into the Heritage Savings Trust Fund to increase it to between $250 and $400 billion by 2050. A report to the Standing Committee on the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund reported the fund had a market value of $21.6 billion in 2023.
Many Albertans know the patriotic version of the Heritage Savings Trust Fund story – a visionary rainy day bank account created in the 1970s by former premier Peter Lougheed meant to preserve Alberta’s oil wealth for future generations. But like many political stories that reach legendary status it is missing a lot of relevant historical context.
Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner (photography by Chris Schwarz/Government of Alberta)
More confusing messaging about the Alberta Pension Plan
As Alberta’s United Conservative Party government continues its big $7 million advertising push to convince Albertans to leave the Canada Pension Plan and start a separate Alberta Pension Plan, Finance Minister Nate Horner told CTV’s Vassy Kapelos that the province’s decision on whether or not to hold a referendum on leaving the CPP will be based on a “high level feeling from many sources.”
AI generated images of the “Alberta Legislature Building on the moon.” (source: DALL-E mini)
Kind of like Aunt Martha’s fruitcake. It keeps coming back at you year after year.
Over the summer months, while most Albertans were focusing on navigating wildfire smoke and intense heat, the provincial government released a steady stream of mandate letters from Premier Danielle Smith to her cabinet ministers.
The mandate letters are meant to provide direction from the Premier to the Ministers on where the departments they are responsible for fit in the government’s agenda.
Publicly releasing ministerial mandate letters provides a certain level of transparency on the surface but the stream of press releases, as conservative thinker KenBoessenkool mused last year, “turns an important governing process into a communications and stakeholder exercise.”
Danielle Smith and Rob Anderson in the Media Room at the Alberta Legislature in 2010 (Source: Dave Cournoyer).
As a columnist, Smith was a harsh critic of “unreliable” renewable energy
The United Conservative Party government’s decision to impose an immediate 7-month moratorium on all new major wind and solar energy projects in Alberta came as a surprise to many political watchers.
The drastic decision was sudden and it wasn’t featured in any of the UCP’s campaign promises in the election held only 75 days ago. But anyone who has paid close attention to now-Premier Danielle Smith’s newspaper and radio commentary knows she has not hidden her deeply critical and skeptical views of wind and solar power.
Then-leader of the Wildrose Party Danielle Smith at a press conference during the 2014 Edmonton-Whitemud by-election. Newly nominated Wildrose candidate Jason Nixon is standing on the right side of the photo. (source: Dave Cournoyer)
It has been almost two weeks since Alberta Premier Danielle Smithnamed her new 24-member cabinet and a lot of ink has been spilled dissecting what the appointments could mean for the start of the United Conservative Party’s second term as government and the next four years.
There are big challenges facing the new cabinet, especially for ministers appointed to high-profile positions. But what caught my attention among the appointments was the return of two former cabinet ministers who were pushed into the backbenches when Smith entered the Premier’s Office last October.
NDP leader at a campaign rally in south Calgary (source: Rachel Notley / Facebook)
Election outcome doesn’t appear any clearer today than it did on Day 1
We’re midway through the final week of Alberta’s election campaign and while the most recent poll from Abacus Data points to Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party having an edge over Rachel Notley’s Alberta NDP, it will probably come down to ground game – who can get their voters out to the polls.
It feels like the closest election we’ve had in a long time.
Then-leader of the UCP Jason Kenney during the 2019 election. (Source: United Conservative Party/Facebook)
It’s amazing how much can change in four years.
The United Conservative Party won big in Alberta’s 2019 election, taking 63 seats in the Alberta Legislature and earning 54.8 per cent of the province-wide vote. The party racked up huge margins of victory in rural ridings and swept Calgary.
It was a juggernaut.
It also wasn’t clear on that election night if the Alberta NDP would be able to recover from their defeat. It felt unlikely.
That the UCP is now neck-and-neck with the NDP in most polls with only 24 days left until the next election says a lot about the UCP’s four years as government and the NDP’s time in opposition.
Premier Danielle Smith and then-UCP candidate Zulkifl Mujahid (source: Zulkifl Mujahid / Facebook)
Rebuking a decision by the United Conservative Party to disqualify candidate Zulkifl Mujahid, the board of directors of the UCP constituency association in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo has voted to continue supporting him as their candidate. The motion was passed at a meeting on April 18.
Here’s the motion:
“Zulkifl Mujhid is the UCP Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Constituency preferred candidate. He is democratically elected.”
The nomination vote followed another contentious annual general meeting that saw a slate of new candidates elected to the local constituency board of directors.
The UCP announced last week that it had disqualified Mujahid after court records revealed he is being sued for defamation by Sultan Zamman, the vice-president of fundraising for the riding’s constituency association. Zamman is seeking $250,000 in damages and a further $50,000 in special damages.
The UCP is expected to appoint a candidate to replace Mujahid before the election is officially called on May 1. But the board’s motion and the former UCP candidate’s continued posting on social media as if he is still a candidate could create some difficulty for whoever the is appointed candidate by the party.
There has been some speculation that the UCP could appoint Yao as the candidate. He is a long-time friend of the MLA from the neighbouring Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche riding, Brian Jean, and endorsed him in the 2022 UCP leadership race.
Yao appears to have spent most of the past week canvassing door-to-door with UCP MLAs running for re-election in Calgary ridings.
The election in this otherwise safe UCP riding in northern Alberta could also be made even more interesting by the entry of Wood Buffalo Municipal Councillor Funky Banjoko, who is running as an Independent candidate in the riding. Banjoko earned more votes than any other candidate running for municipal council in 2021.
Suncor laboratory technician and Unifor organizer Tanika Chaisson is expected to be nominated as the Alberta NDP candidate.
There are 37 days left until Alberta’s May 29 provincial election.
UPDATE: The UCP has appointed Tany Yao as the party’s candidate in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo. With his appointment, the UCP once again have 87 candidates nominated to run in the next election (see the full list of candidates).
A tweet from the United Conservative Party announcing that Tany Yao has been appointed in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo.
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Premier Danielle Smith delivers her victory speech on November 8, 2022 after winning the Brooks-Medicine Hat by-election (source: Danielle Smith/Facebook)
Because Smith won in a by-election on November 8, 2022, the UCP provincial board decided to accept her candidacy in the south east Alberta riding without opening a new nomination process.
Smith won the by-election with 54.5 per cent of the vote shortly after winning the UCP leadership.
In the upcoming provincial election she will again face NDP candidate Gwendoline Dirk, who placed second with 26.7 per cent in the by-election, and Alberta Party leader Barry Morishita, who placed third in the by-election with 16.5 per cent.
Smith previously represented the Highwood riding in the Legislature from 2012 to 2015.
Brian Jean nominated in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche
Brian Jean at an all-candidates forum hosted by the Fort McMurray Metis in 2022 (source: Brian Jean/Facebook)
Also having his nomination approved by the UCP board was Brian Jean, who will run for re-election in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche.
While Jean has been a political figure in Fort McMurray for many years, he most recently won the March 2022 by-election in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche with 63.6 per cent of the vote.
Jean previously represented Fort McMurray-Conklin in the Legislature from 2015 to 2018 and Athabasca-Fort McMurray in the House of Commons from 2004 to 2014. He currently serves as Minister of Jobs, Economy and Northern Development.
He is the only candidate nominated to run in the north east Alberta riding.
