Tag: United Conservative Party AGM

Six takeaways from Alberta’s Referendum and what’s next in our wild west politics

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 24, 2026

This photo of a defaced separatist campaign sign was widely circulated on social media following the failure of the Alberta separation referendum (source: Facebook)

Albertans embrace staying in Canada, reject Danielle Smith’s constitutional reforms, give the UCP weak mandate on immigration questions

With 5,536 of 5,537 polling stations reporting and 20,514,670 total ballots cast, we now have a much better look at the results of Alberta’s 10 referendum questions than we did when the vote counting started late Monday night.

1. Support for Alberta remaining in Canada is strong across the board

Option 1 to support Alberta remaining a province in Canada has earned 1,545,242 votes so far, totalling 75% of the vote on the most high profile of the 10 referendum questions. Separatists appealing to Albertans in the final weeks of the campaign to send a message to Ottawa by voting for Option 2 to hold a future binding referendum on separation, earned 514,043 votes — 25% of the total province-wide vote.

The vote to remain in Canada was strong across Alberta but strongest in the two largest urban centres and in First Nations communities.

More than 80% of voters in every riding in Edmonton voted for Alberta to stay in Canada, and the remain side earned more than 75% of the vote in every Calgary riding. More than 79% of voters in the cities of Airdrie and Lethbridge and the Banff-Kananaskis riding supported remaining in Canada. Turnout reached historic highs in many First Nations communities with support more than 90% in favour of remaining in Canada.

Many ridings outside the big cities voted to remain by more than 60% and only a majority of voters in two ridings voted for Option 2 to hold another referendum to leave. Separatists earned 50.9% in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre and 50.3% in Central Peace-Notley ridings. Results were also close in the Drumheller-Stettler and Taber-Warner ridings.

It is worth noting that the separation option received less votes than the total number of signatures that would have been required to trigger a citizen initiative referendum when the Citizen Initiative Act was initially passed in 2021 (the signature threshold was later significantly lowered by Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party government to accommodate the separatist Stay Free Alberta petition).

Read the full story on the Daveberta Substack

Alberta Politics

An Alberta referendum deep dive on Craft Politics

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 24, 2026

More than 6,000 Albertans rallied for their province to remain in a united Canada at a October 16 rally at the Edmonton Expo Centre (source: Dave Cournoyer)

Alberta voted to stay. What now?

I joined Joseph Lavoie on Craft Politics for a deep dive discussion about Alberta’s referendum and how the results could impact Alberta politics and Premier Danielle Smith’s future as leader of the United Conservative Party.

We also discussed how the results of the Alberta separation question and the nine immigration and constitutional questions are a sign of a growing urban-rural divide in Alberta politics (and how the recent NDP win in Calgary-Shaw could reflect urban Albertans unhappiness with the UCP government’s referendum agenda).

Thank you to Joseph for inviting me on the podcast. Be sure to subscribe to Craft Politics on your podcast listening app of choice or watch their interviews on YouTube.

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Alberta Politics

Alberta separatists say they are just getting started

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 21, 2026

Alberta separation supporters at the Alberta Legislature on August 29, 2026 (photo: Dave Cournoyer)

Albertans clearly rejected leaving Canada in yesterday’s vote, but the leaders of Alberta’s various separatist factions made it clear on Monday that even in defeat this referendum represents a victory for their movement.

“The percentage vote is irrelevant because we have already won,” wrote the Alberta Prosperity Project’s Jeffrey Rath on X. “Regardless of the outcome tomorrow we have already won the first series of battles in the war for Alberta Independence.”

The controversial lawyer and co-leader of the Alberta Prosperity Project who spread conspiracy theories online about the CFB Wainwright disaster last weekend, also wrote that “[o]n Tuesday we move on to the next phase of our project. We dedicate ourselves and all of our volunteers to the replacement of the Federalist Smith as leader of the Alberta UCP. We will confirm that the UCP is Alberta’s leading Independence Party.”

Read the full story on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Alberta Anti-Immigration Referendum, Alberta NDP, Alberta Politics Substack, Alberta Prosperity Project, Alberta Separation Referendum, Alberta Separatism, Canada Election Substack, Centurion Project, Danielle Smith, Daveberta Substack, David Parker, Jeff Rath, Jeffrey Rath, Naheed Nenshi, UCP AGM 2026, United Conservative Party, United Conservative Party AGM

Alberta Politics

Support for remaining in Canada is everywhere in Alberta

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 20, 2026

At first glance of the results, support for Alberta remaining in Canada is strong across the province, and strongest in the large cities of Calgary and Edmonton and overwhelming in First Nations communities.

The separatists had their best results in rural areas, as was expected, but only have a majority in one riding. That’s Central Peace-Notley, with 5,272 votes for leaving and 5,041 votes for staying in Canada. The northwest Alberta riding is represented by United Conservative Party cabinet minister Todd Loewen, who was first elected as a Wildrose Party MLA in 2015 and is an alumnus of the Ottawa Freedom Convoy.

Read the full story on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Alberta Separation Referendum, Alberta Separatism, Central Peace-Notley, Danielle Smith, Todd Loewen, UCP AGM 2026, United Conservative Party, United Conservative Party AGM

Alberta Politics

Referendum has been a mismanaged mess, says UCP constituency president

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 16, 2026

Premier Danielle Smith and separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre at a UCP fundraising dinner in Bonnyville in May 2025 (source: Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP / Facebook)

Alberta Prosperity Project CEO Mitch Sylvestre is encouraging voters to “decline the nine” by not bother voting for Smith’s nine referendum questions and only voting in the separation question.

“We promised long ago that this movement would not lend its name to bogus referendum questions. We are keeping that promise,” Sylvestre wrote in a message to APP supporters.

“Let’s be honest. From start to finish, this referendum has been a mismanaged mess, brought to you by a government that chose to pander rather than keep its promises on a fair democratic process,” wrote Sylvestre, who is President of the UCP constituency association in Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul riding and was the winner of the UCP’s 2025 Best Fundraiser Award and 2024 Best Constituency President Award.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Alberta Anti-Immigration Referendum, Alberta Politics Substack, Alberta Separation Referendum, Alberta Separatism, Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, Brad Lafortune, Canada Election Substack, Danielle Smith, Daveberta Substack, Kathy Flett, Mitch Sylvestre, No to the Nine, Public Interest Alberta, Stephen Carter, UCP AGM 2026, United Conservative Party, United Conservative Party AGM, Wexit Alberta

Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith deflects, encourages Albertans to vote “yes to the rest”

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 16, 2026

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks to the Canada Strong and Free Conference in Ottawa on May 8, 2026 (source: Canada Strong and Free Network / Facebook)

Ahead of what could be an awkward meeting with Mark Carney today in Red Deer, Premier Danielle Smith attempted to downplay the Prime Minister’s comments in her own response posted on social media.

Despite Smith’s attempts to position herself as a pro-Canadian force in the upcoming referendums, she has found herself in a very uncomfortable position after deciding to appease the separatist activists entrenched in the UCP by calling the referendum in the first place.

Polling shows that her vague positioning has led large numbers of separatists to believe she is federalist and large numbers of federalists to believe she is a separatist.

This perception has probably been made stronger by the UCP government’s $4 million advertising campaign that promotes confused and unfocused messaging about Alberta being strong and sovereign within Canada but not actually taking a strong position either way.

UCP President Rob Smith rebukes calls to purge party’s separatist wing

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 15, 2026

United Conservative Party president Rob Smith took to Facebook to rebuke calls to purge the governing party of its separatist wing if Albertans overwhelmingly vote to remain in Canada on October 19.

Smith’s comments were aimed at former party leader Jason Kenney, who said earlier this week that the UCP should reaffirm its federalist position and separatists should leave to form their own party.

“There’s no doubt that those folks have infiltrated (the party),” Kenney said at an Edmonton Chamber of Commerce luncheon. “They’re welcome to participate in democracy, but if their primary goal is separation, then they have to do it in a separatist party,” he said.

“You’re either for Canada, national unity, or you’re not, and if you’re still a citizen, you’re welcome to be involved in democracy. Go and do that in a separatist party,” Kenney said.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Alberta Politics Substack, Alberta Prosperity Project, Alberta Separation Referendum, Alberta Separatism, Canada Election Substack, Danielle Smith, Daveberta Substack, Jason Kenney, Jason Stephan, Jeff Rath, Jeffrey Rath, Mitch Sylvestre, Red Deer-South, Rob Smith, UCP AGM 2026, United Conservative Party, United Conservative Party AGM

Alberta Politics

Avnish Nanda: Let’s crush Alberta separatism together; vote remain and no to the nine.

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 13, 2026

The Province of Alberta was created on September 1, 1905, a year remembered on the Centennial Flame monument on Parliament Hill in Ottawa. (photo: Dave Cournoyer)

Falling for the trap — voting yes —only strengthens the resolve of separatists.

Over the past eight months, Our Alberta Advantage has spoken to hundreds of thousands of Albertans about the risk this fall’s referendum poses to the province. Tens of thousands of those conversations have been in person — in community halls, temple basements, and the living rooms and kitchen tables of Albertans who belong to the array of cultural communities that weave the rich and diverse social tapestry that is Alberta.

Our Alberta Advantage was the first third party advertiser registered with Elections Alberta for the referendum. It formed shortly after Premier Danielle Smith announced that she would put to Albertans a series of immigration and constitutional questions. At the time, as a lawyer in my day job, I had acted for a federalist organization opposed to Premier Smith’s bulldozing of legislative safeguards to appease the separatists and clear a path to a binding independence referendum. After watching Premier Smith’s televised address outlining the referendum questions, I knew that the initiative was part of her broader agenda to maintain support of the separatist faction that is at the core of her political (re)ascendence.

Read the full column on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Alberta Anti-Immigration Referendum, Alberta Prosperity Project, Alberta Separation Referendum, Alberta Separatism, Avnish Nanda, Danielle Smith, Mitch Sylvestre, No to the Nine, Our Alberta Advantage, Stay Free Alberta, United Conservative Party, United Conservative Party AGM, Western Alienation

Alberta Politics

Separatists are entrenched in Danielle Smith’s UCP and aren’t going away

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date May 26, 2026

The Alberta Prosperity Project’s Jeffrey Rath shows off the separatist group’s proposed referendum question in Calgary (source: Facebook).

Former conservative party premiers Peter Lougheed and Ralph Klein would have told the separatists to pound dirt and wouldn’t have allowed them to dig themselves into their party like they have in the UCP.

The referendum will almost certainly further deepen the divide in conservative politics in this province along pro-Canada and pro-separation lines.

In her press conference today, Smith called for the losing side of this referendum to “accept the judgement of people and the direction that we go.”

That seems unlikely.

This referendum is guaranteed to string out this debate.

Read a lot more on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Alberta NDP, Alberta Politics Substack, Alberta Separation Referendum, Alberta Separatism, Canada Election Substack, Danielle Smith, Daveberta Substack, Forever Canadian, Jeff Rath, Jeffrey Rath, Mitch Sylvestre, Naheed Nenshi, Peter Lougheed, Ralph Klein, Stay Free Alberta, Thomas Lukaszuk, United Conservative Party, United Conservative Party AGM

Alberta Politics

Referendum for another referendum blocks Alberta’s unilateral declaration of independence

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date May 25, 2026

An AI-generated image of Premier Danielle Smith and US President Donald Trump celebrating an “Independent Republic of Alberta” shared by the anonymous pro-separation “Rise of Alberta” Instagram account (source: riseofalberta / Instagram)

Grinding the gears of many separatist organizers is the referendum for another referendum-style question.

A referendum to hold a referendum to open constitutional negotiations is a pretty dry rally slogan and it robs more radical separatist elements of the temptation to just unilaterally declare independence if a clear separation question was successful.

Since there is no separation process in the Canadian constitution, we’ll have to guess what Smith believes the next steps would be. Legal minds I have spoken with suggest that the constitution would need to be amended and we all know how long and drawn out that process would be.

Some prominent separatist organizers have openly dangled the threat of American President Donald Trump immediately recognizing Alberta’s independence, forcing the hand of the federal government and other provinces that would want to undertake constitutional negotiations.

No one is happy with Danielle Smith’s separation referendum question

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date May 24, 2026

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at the United Conservative Party’s Leader’s Dinner in Edmonton in March 2025 (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)

The wording of the referendum question will make no one happy.

Many, if not most, of the more than 456,000 Albertans who signed Thomas Lukaszuk’s pro-Canada Forever Canadian petition did so with the belief it would block an actual separation referendum from ever happening. Lukaszuk said he’d rather have MLAs vote on the question in the Legislature to save Albertans from having a costly and divisive referendum.

The leaders of Alberta’s separatist Stay Free Alberta petition are spitting mad and calling for Smith to be toppled by UCP members for not holding a yes or no question. Some separatist organizers are trying to convince 22 UCP constituency association presidents to sign a letter to trigger a Special General Meeting to remove Smith as party leader before October.

Danielle Smith shows her love for Canada by holding a separation referendum

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date May 23, 2026

Does it make any sense? No. But not much does in Alberta politics these days.

“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”

That’s the referendum question that Premier Danielle Smith has decided to put on the 10th paper ballot that Albertans will be handed when they show up to vote on October 19, 2026.

Smith says the wordy multiple choice question was her only option because the court ruling quashing Elections Alberta’s approval of the separatist Stay Free Alberta citizen initiative petition ruled out a question where yes and no were the only answers.

Smith had an option to not hold the referendum at all but she opened this can of worms and it won’t easily be closed. The populist-turned-separatist-wing of the United Conservative Party that booted former premier Jason Kenney and then boosted Smith into the Premier’s Office is now firmly entrenched in the governing party — and they are not going away.

Read a lot more on the Daveberta Substack

Alberta Politics

4 ways Danielle Smith’s UCP could react to the Forever Canadian citizen initiative

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date December 2, 2025

Has Thomas Lukaszuk’s pro-Canada petition boxed in Danielle Smith on Alberta separatism?

If there is one big takeaway from last weekend’s United Conservative Party annual general meeting it’s that the separatist movement in Alberta is deeply intrenched in the governing party.

From jeers and cheers to at least half the board candidates endorsed by the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project getting elected, the weekend gathering was a showcase of how influential Alberta’s most prominent separatists are in Premier Danielle Smith‘s UCP.

Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith hopes pipeline deal with Mark Carney will quell separatist sentiments

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date November 29, 2025

Premier Danielle Smith will be able to walk into the United Conservative Party AGM this weekend triumphant about her pipeline deal with Prime Minister Mark Carney, and maybe even confident enough to consider calling an early provincial election in 2026, but she may get more jeers than cheers from some sections of her party who will be unhappy she was willing to have truck and trade with Carney (though I can guarantee that Steven Guilbeault’s resignation will get cheers).

“Danielle wanted lapdogs,” says influential separatist Jeffrey Rath

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date November 29, 2025

According to influential separatist Jeffrey Rath, one of the main spokespeople for the Alberta Prosperity Project, the UCP board of directors is to blame for blocking a separation debate at the AGM. Rath has openly criticized incumbent UCP President Rob Smith for casting the deciding vote against holding a debate about Alberta independence. A debate and vote on Alberta’s separation from Canada could have received overwhelming support from AGM delegates — making the UCP an official separatist party.