It was 1975 and Lougheed’s PCs were swimming in oil money like Scrooge McDuck
The Heritage Savings Trust Fund was front and centre in Premier Danielle Smith‘s pre-budget televised speech last week, so there’s a good chance Albertans are going to hear a lot about it when Finance Minister Nate Horner rises in the Legislative Assembly this afternoon to table the provincial government’s annual budget.
In her 8-minute address to Albertans, Smith said she wants to funnel oil and gas royalty revenues into the Heritage Savings Trust Fund to increase it to between $250 and $400 billion by 2050. A report to the Standing Committee on the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund reported the fund had a market value of $21.6 billion in 2023.
Many Albertans know the patriotic version of the Heritage Savings Trust Fund story – a visionary rainy day bank account created in the 1970s by former premier Peter Lougheed meant to preserve Alberta’s oil wealth for future generations. But like many political stories that reach legendary status it is missing a lot of relevant historical context.
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Any good talk radio host understands that the show doesn’t belong to the host, it belongs to the listeners. And if this past weekend’s annual general meeting is any indication, talk radio host-turned-Premier Danielle Smith might be taking a similar approach as leader of the United Conservative Party.
Aside from a nod to protecting parental rights during her keynote speech, Smith largely stood out of the way as more than 3,700 delegates packed into Calgary’s BMO Centre to vote on party policy and elect a new executive board. It was an impressive crowd and probably the largest provincial political convention in Alberta’s history.
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More confusing messaging about the Alberta Pension Plan
As Alberta’s United Conservative Party government continues its big $7 million advertising push to convince Albertans to leave the Canada Pension Plan and start a separate Alberta Pension Plan, Finance Minister Nate Horner told CTV’s Vassy Kapelos that the province’s decision on whether or not to hold a referendum on leaving the CPP will be based on a “high level feeling from many sources.”
Never a dull week in Alberta politics
Fresh from launching a pro-Alberta Pension Plan advertising campaign, the Alberta government has launched another advertising campaign asking Canadians to email their Member of Parliament to encourage them to oppose the federal government’s draft Clean Electricity Regulations (most Alberta MPs are Conservatives, so they are probably already opposing it).
The government’s “Tell the Feds” ad campaign warns that electricity prices could quadruple and Albertans could face blackouts during -30C temperatures if the draft federal regulations are adopted.
Minister of Environment and Protected Areas Rebecca Schulz, MLA for Calgary-Shaw and 2022 UCP leadership race candidate, has been the government’s point-person in opposing the draft federal regulations.
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“More Alberta, less Ottawa”
Alberta’s United Conservative Party government opened up a new front in its fight for more provincial autonomy with a proposal to withdraw Alberta workers from the Canada Pension Plan and create an Alberta Pension Plan.
Premier Danielle Smith joined Finance Minister Nate Horner and pension engagement panel chairperson and former finance minister Jim Dinning on stage to announce a sunshine and apple pie forecast for a new Alberta Pension Plan.
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“Hey, you’re the candidate nominations guy!”
It’s not what people usually call me when I meet them for the first time, but it’s what a longtime daveberta.ca reader said when I met them for the first time a few weeks ago.
But I guess it’s true.
I started tracking the names of people running for nominations to become party candidates in elections 16 years ago and have since done it for every provincial and federal election in Alberta and municipal election in Edmonton. By my count that’s 15 elections.
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“Hey Dave, is Jason Kenney going to win the leadership review?”
It’s a question I get asked a lot these days.
My answer?
I don’t know.
Anyone who tells you different probably has a personal or career stake in the game.
What was supposed to be a big in-person vote in Red Deer back in April turned into a province-wide mail in vote. And that loud swooshing sound you heard wasn’t the sound of a late winter Chinook but the sound of the goal posts moving.
And there’s strong feelings on both sides of this fight.
Kenney’s opponents are outspoken. Especially the ones inside his own United Conservative Party caucus.
MLAs Brian Jean, Leela Aheer, Angela Pitt, Peter Guthrie, Jason Stephan, and Dave Hanson.
Plus Drew Barnes, Todd Loewen and friends.
They all want Kenney gone. They think the UCP is going to lose the next election to Rachel Notley’s NDP if he stays on as leader.
His former central Alberta organizer David Parker is leading Take Back Alberta, a group dedicated to defeating Kenney in the leadership review.
His former spokesperson Blaise Boehmer has become one of his biggest critics.
One former staffer has even taken him to court.
But the loyalists working in the Premier’s Office in Edmonton think his critics are bunch of clowns.
It’s a gong show.
Kenney says of his recent interactions with normal Albertans: “100% of the people who came up to me unprompted say things like: We’re behind you Jason, keep up the good work.”
Yeah, ok there, Mr. 22-per cent Approval Rating.
He spins a lot of yarn.
Kenney once claimed that he didn’t impose stricter COVID-19 public health restrictions because of a crying Venezuelan refugee who claimed the fled socialism.
The Venezuelan woman who believed she was used as part of Kenney’s argument remembers her encounter with the premier as much less dramatic.
But Kenney’s staffers loudly trumpet his good deeds.
Three loyal cabinet ministers – Ric McIver, Jason Nixon and Doug Schweitzer – told Kenney’s critics that they have to fall in line if he wins.
That’s doubtful.
If Kenney had the ability to silence his critics and re-unite his “United” Conservative Party he would have done that two years ago.
That ship has sailed.
Scratch that. The ship is leaking.
But is it going to sink?
Even if Kenney is a hot mess of a premier, he’s a still skilled campaigner, and that’s basically what he’s been doing for the past few months – campaigning.
He can even be, dare I say, dangerously charming on the campaign trail.
Kenney does get public support from some conservatives outside Alberta.
They see him as a kind of Philosopher King of Canadian conservatism.
Conservative pundit Sean Speer wrote a long defence of the beleaguered Kenney in the National Post praising his policy agenda.
But commentary by out-of-Alberta conservatives, who probably have fond memories of Kenney’s two decades in Ottawa, almost always omit how intentionally and aggressively divisive he has been since stepping into the Premier’s Office.
Albertans who oppose, or even just dare to criticize, his government’s policies have been routinely derided and attacked by Kenney.
Are you an Albertan who opposed closing and selling provincial parks?
Then you’re a radical urban eco-marxist.
Did you oppose open-pit coal mining in the Rocky Mountains?
Then you must be a radical urban eco-marxist who votes NDP (can you imagine telling that to a 5th generation cattle rancher from southern Alberta?).
You get the drift.
So, do Albertans see Kenney as the conservative philosopher king that his out-of-province admirers do?
Lol. No.
Do normal UCP members?
Definitely not.
Will Kenney win on May 18?
Will he get more than 50 per cent of the vote?
Your guess is probably as good as mine.
Will the deep divisions inside the UCP be healed?
Not a chance.
As veteran political columnist Graham Thomson signed off in a recent column, “No matter what happens that day, Alberta’s already wild politics will just get wilder.”
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The people of Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche waited six whole months for Premier Jason Kenney to call a by-election to choose their next MLA.
That’s an eternity in politics.
But the by-election in the northern Alberta boom town isn’t really about the people who actually live there.
It’s about who leads the United Conservative Party.
Former Wildrose leader Brian Jean is running as an anti-Kenney UCP candidate.
Jean beat Kenney’s favourite in a December nomination vote and has made no secret his desire to replace him as leader.
In fact, every candidate in this by-election is running against Kenney. It’s the reason why the Premier won’t be seen anywhere near Fort McMurray before the March 15 vote.
But Jean’s focus isn’t really on Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche.
It’s on Red Deer.
The by-election is a proxy war ahead of the UCP’s April 9 leadership review.
Jean loyalist Vitor Marciano was in Bonnyville last month with local MLA Dave Hanson talking about why UCP members should dump Kenney.
“On April 9, we’re voting out a tyrant,” former Kenney organizer David Parker said at the meeting.
You can listen to it here.
Parker was Kenney’s Central Alberta organizer in the 2017 leadership race.
Now, Parker is the executive director of Take Back Alberta, a political action committee created to defeat Kenney in the leadership review.
Until recently, Parker was Vice President of Business Development for Higher Ground Medica.
The President and CEO of the Oyen-based Cannabis company is Jeff Callaway.
Yep. That Jeff Callaway.
Alberta politics is a very small world.
Another front in the challenge to Kenney’s leadership is raging on the slopes of the Rocky Mountains in the sprawling Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre riding.
Jean joined exiled former UCP MLA Drew Barnes in backing former county councillor Tim Hoven against MLA Jason Nixon in the UCP nomination race.
“Tim Hoven has stepped up to do a brave thing,” Jean said in his Facebook video endorsement of Hoven.
Nixon is a heavy hitter in Kenney’s inner circle.
He’s the Government House Leader and Minister of Environment & Parks.
The Giant from Sundre backed Kenney over Jean in the UCP’s 2017 leadership race – an endorsement that was a critical moment in that contest.
His absence in the Legislature last week was conspicuous.
Rumour is that Nixon was busy driving around his riding campaigning for the nomination.
In the deep south, Jean has endorsed Vulcan County councillor Jodie Gateman in the Cardston-Siksika UCP nomination race.
Gateman is the long-time conservative activist challenging UCP Deputy Government House Leader Joseph Schow, another well-known Kenney loyalist.
“She stepped up because she sees the need to change things in the UCP, the need to bring renewal and take the party back to its original sense of purpose,” Jean said in his endorsement of Gateman.
Back up in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, where the by-election is actually happening, NDP candidate Ariana Mancini is busy hitting the doors.
The local elementary school teacher has been joined on the campaign trail by Edmonton NDP MLAs Rakhi Pancholi, Richard Feehan and David Eggen.
“Folks in Fort McMurray have had enough of the drama and the infighting in the UCP,” Mancini said at her February 15 campaign launch.
“We need a government that is focused on families and businesses here in our community,” Mancini said.
Rachel Notley’s NDP are putting in an effort but it’s a long-shot for them. The last time voters in this part of Alberta elected a New Democrat was 1986.
Jean is the favourite to win but by-elections are a funny thing.
Enter Paul Hinman on stage right.
Another former Wildrose Party leader, Hinman is now leading the separatist Wildrose Independence Party.
He’s also running in the by-election.
Hinman and Jean are competing for the love of the Freedom Convoy supporters by promoting conspiracy theories about COVID-19, the World Economic Forum and the Emergency Measures Act.
Hinman has a history of winning by-elections (well ok, one).
After losing his seat in Cardston-Taber-Warner in 2008 he shocked political watchers by winning a by-election one year later in posh Calgary-Glenmore.
A political comeback for Hinman up north would be an earthquake for Alberta politics.
A split on the increasingly unhinged political right could give the increasingly moderate NDP a chance to run up the middle to a win.
When the history books are written, the Fort McMuray-Lac La Biche by-election might just be a footnote in the chapter about the April 9 leadership review.
Or maybe, just maybe, the results on March 15 will grab the attention of Albertans.
Candidates in the March 15 Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche by-election.
- Marilyn Burns, Alberta Advantage Party
- Brian Deheer, Independent
- Abdulhakim Hussein, Liberal Party
- Michelle Landsiedel, Alberta Party
- Ariana Mancini, Alberta NDP
- Steven Mellott, Independence Party
- Brian Jean, United Conservative Party