19 Alberta ridings I’ll be watching closely on Election Day (source: CanadianPolling.ca)
There are four days left until Election Day in Alberta.
Readers of the Daveberta will know I’ve been watching this Alberta election pretty closely and, while I’ve actually been watching all 87 ridings throughout the campaign, there are a few handfuls I’ve been keeping a close eye on.
Some of them will be close races and some will be won with landslides.
Here’s my list of 19 ridings I’ll be watching closely on Election Day.
Jordan Peterson, 14, in the Edmonton Journal on March 14, 1977 (source: Paul Fairie on Twitter)
A controversial right-wing media personality with a huge online following will soon be entering the election fray.
Toronto psychologist Jordan Peterson is making three speaking tour stops in the Alberta next week and will almost certainly provide fodder for local conservative media columnists to chew on.
I joined Éric Grenier of TheWrit.ca on his excellent podcast this week to discuss Alberta’s election and the candidates who will be on the ballot on May 29. Éric was generous enough to share the audio from that episode so I can share it with the lucky paid subscribers of the Daveberta Substack.
Thank you to Daveberta Podcast producer Adam Rozenhart for editing this so we can share it with you today.
Then-leader of the UCP Jason Kenney during the 2019 election. (Source: United Conservative Party/Facebook)
It’s amazing how much can change in four years.
The United Conservative Party won big in Alberta’s 2019 election, taking 63 seats in the Alberta Legislature and earning 54.8 per cent of the province-wide vote. The party racked up huge margins of victory in rural ridings and swept Calgary.
It was a juggernaut.
It also wasn’t clear on that election night if the Alberta NDP would be able to recover from their defeat. It felt unlikely.
That the UCP is now neck-and-neck with the NDP in most polls with only 24 days left until the next election says a lot about the UCP’s four years as government and the NDP’s time in opposition.
“I believe without a doubt that Red Deer-North, and all of Alberta, can thrive under the NDP,” Tweedle said in a statement.
“I will work to ensure our community has access to quality healthcare, a world class public education system, long-term job growth and opportunities for our children, supports and dignity for our most vulnerable, and ensure affordability for families with a competent government steering the ship.”
Tweedle is a former oilfield administrator and was a candidate for the Red Deer Public School Board in 2021.
Education Minister Adriana LaGrange and Premier Jason Kenney in 2019 (Source: Government of Alberta)
The riding is currently represented by United Conservative Party MLA and Minister of Education Adriana LaGrange. She was elected in 2019 with 60 per cent of the vote.
The riding was represented by NDP MLA Kim Schreiner from 2015 to 2019 and one of its past MLAs was Stockwell Day, who held the riding from 1986 until he jumped into federal politics in 2000.
Rebecca Bounsall is running for the NDP nomination in Calgary-Fish Creek. She was the party’s candidate in 2019 and earned 28 per cent of the vote.
No by-election in Calgary-Elbow?
UCP leadership front runner Danielle Smith is saying she will call a by-election in a safe rural riding if she wins tonight’s leadership vote. But she is not saying which riding that will be.
The former Wildrose Party leader has been running for the UCP nomination in Livingstone-Macleod but the incumbent UCP MLA Roger Reid appears to be busy campaigning for the nomination.
Lawyer Andrea James has already announced her plans to run for the UCP nomination and there is speculation in political circles that former City Councillor and mayoral candidate Jeff Davison could also seek the nomination.
Calling a by-election in a safe rural seat so a potential future Premier Smith can get into the Legislative while also not calling a by-election in the already vacant riding sounds like a pretty good way of helping the UCP lose the seat in the next election.
The tally
The NDP have now nominated candidates in 55 of Alberta’s 87 electoral districts. As previously noted, it appears as though the UCP have paused the nomination process until after their new leader is selected on October 6. The Alberta Party has nominated three candidates.
Despite running for the United Conservative Party leadership in 2017, Schweitzer bowed out of this year’s race after endorsing Premier Jason Kenney in the June leadership review. He announced soon after that he would not seek re-election as MLA but his sudden resignation announcement at least eight months ahead of the next election comes as a surprise – and opens the possibility of a by-election in Calgary-Elbow before the next general election.
It would be the third by-election in Calgary-Elbow in the last 16 years – the others being held because of the resignations of former MLAs (and premiers) Ralph Klein in 2007 and Alison Redford in 2014.
The 2007 by-election shocked political watchers when Liberal Craig Cheffins won, and in 2014, Alberta Party leader Greg Clark narrowly lost to Calgary school trustee and former Saskatchewan MLA Gordon Dirks. Clark defeated Dirks in the election the following year but was defeated by Schweitzer in 2019.
Already seen as a possible pick-up in the next election, the Alberta NDP nominated energy analyst Samir Kayande and have poured resources and volunteers into the riding to support his bid.
The Alberta Party has chosen lawyer and former Liberal Party leadership candidate Kerry Cundal to carry their banner, and her candidacy will be a test of how much of the party’s support in 2015 was a credit to Greg Clark’s personal popularity.
Mark Calgary-Elbow down on your list of ridings to watch.
Former Mayor running for NDP nomination in Spruce Grove-Stony Plain
Former Parkland County Mayor Rod Shaigec is the second candidate to enter the NDP nomination contest in Spruce Grove-Stony Plain. Shaigec joins former Spruce Grove City Councillor and mayoral candidate Chantal Saramaga-McKenzie in the race.
“We need responsible and accountable government that puts Albertans and communities first. We need an honest, hard-working leader whose integrity is beyond reproach – that leader is @RachelNotley,” Shaigec wrote on Twitter.
Shaigec served three-terms as Mayor of Parkland County from 2010 to 2021, and chose not to run for re-election last year to give himself time to recover from a traumatic tractor accident in 2020.
Alberta Energy Minister Sonya Savage releases the final report of the Public Inquiry into Anti-Alberta Energy Campaigns.
Sonya Savage has been acclaimed as the UCP candidate in Calgary-North West. Savage was first elected in 2019, succeeding NDP MLA Sandra Jansen, who was elected as a Progressive Conservative in 2012 and 2015 but crossed the floor to the NDP in 2017 and became Minister of Infrastructure. Jansen did not run for re-election in 2019.
Savage has served as Minister of Energy since 2019 and is co-chair of Travis Toews’ leadership campaign.
Before her election, Savage was known as a lawyer and lobbyist for the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association but many years before that she was a PC Party activist.
“The philosophy we’re looking for is somebody who’s very conservative, less government, more individual responsibility, but also somebody who is progressive who’s backing the unity deal. We want to hear how they’re going to renew and urbanize the party,” said Savage, then known as Sonya Nerland, to Calgary Herald reporter Joan Crockatt on Sept. 19, 1992.
Savage ended up backing Energy Minister Rick Orman in the 1992 leadership race, along with future premier Jim Prentice, who was Orman’s campaign chair.
Orman placed third in the race and dropped out before the Dec. 2, 1992 second ballot to endorse Nancy Betkowski.
Savage would later co-chair Orman’s second campaign for the PC Party leadership in 2011. Orman dropped out after placing fifth on the first ballot and endorsed Gary Mar, who was then defeated by Alison Redford (who was the PC Party Youth President ten years before Savage).
(Am I the only one who’s starting to feel like Alberta politics is just a rotating cast of 20 characters?)
Danielle Smith poses with federal Conservative frontrunner Pierre Poilievre at a Calgary Stampede event. (source: Twitter)
There’s not much of anything that is constant in Alberta politics these days, maybe except for the Calgary Stampede.
At least in some non-pandemic years, it’s the Northern Star of Alberta politics. It’s the must attend event for political aspirants of all stripes, from Prime Ministers to aspiring future Premiers.
The Stampede is back in full force this year, with last year’s disastrous “Best Summer Ever” disaster unfortunately an almost distant memory, even though its a big reason why we are where we are today in Alberta politics.
And for anyone watching the Stampede, even this writer from his perch in Edmonton, the race to replace Jason Kenney as Premier and leader of the United Conservative Party was on display as urbanites of all stripes dusted off their cowboys hats and plaid shirts for the week of pancake breakfasts and beer tents.
The big talk of the town this week is Danielle Smith’s unexpectedly strong comeback in the UCP leadership race.
Former Wildrose leader Danielle Smith and Premier Jim Prentice on December 17, 2014.
Most political watchers will remember her downfall after a treacherous floor-crossing nearly destroyed the Wildrose Party and helped created the conditions for Rachel Notley to lead her NDP to sweep the province in 2015. (Real political nerds will remember her time on the disastrous Calgary Board of Education from 1998 to 1999, but that’s for another column).
But what we politicos may have missed is that a lot of Albertans, including the thousands who have signed up to support her and are showing up to her campaign events in droves, remember her from her more recent role as the host of a popular talk radio show.
Smith has always been a talented political communicator, despite some high-profile flameouts.
She knows how to talk to conservatives, and it just happens there are a lot of those in Alberta.
Danielle Smith speaking to a crowd at a campaign event in Airdrie (source: Twitter)
It’s not clear how many UCP MLAs support her separatist-leaning “Alberta First” campaign or her dipping into COVID conspiracy theories, but she has nabbed at least one endorsement from the governing caucus – Airdrie-Cochrane MLA Peter Guthrie.
Smith hasn’t held a seat in the Legislature sine 2015 but she’s challenging MLA Roger Reid for the UCP nomination in Livingstone-Macleod. And recently she said she would reopen nomination contests some party activists believe were unfairly stacked in favour of Kenney loyalists, a move that is unlikely to endear her to most current UCP MLAs.
Her comeback would be the political story of the year, and while Premier Danielle Smith is far from a sure thing, she is certainly driving the narrative of the UCP leadership campaign. She’s tapped into a motivated group of Alberta conservatives unhappy with the status-quo.
Those are probably the people Kenney referred to as “lunatics.”
And they might just be the mainstream of the UCP right now.
Even the perceived frontrunner is responding to Smith.
Travis Toews (source: Twitter)
Establishment favourite Travis Toews followed Smith’s lead with a milquetoast “Enough is Enough” social media meme opposing COVID-19 vaccinations. It’s not clear what message he was trying to telegraph.
It was the kind of vague response you would expect from a frontrunner campaign, wanting to respond and not offend but failing at both.
Toews also released a list of autonomist policies that read like they were copied and pasted from 2020’s Fair Deal Panel report.
Smith and Toews aren’t alone.
Brian Jean is hitting the same notes, though he’s running a sleepier than expected campaign. Still, Fort McMurray’s Golden Boy shouldn’t be underestimated.
Independent MLA Todd Loewenis also hitting the same notes on separatist and anti-COVID health measures but his chances of winning appear much less likely than the others in this pack.
Rachel Notley and St. Albert MLA Marie Renaud at the Calgary Stampede. (source: Twitter)
Smith’s extreme positions are probably leaving Rachel Notley’s NDP salivating at the opportunity to run against an extremist right-wing UCP that would leave a lot of Albertans alienated.
Two months ago, Notley’s victory in Alberta’s next election looked like a sure bet, but Kenney’s resignation announcement gave his party a bump in the polls and now it’s a race.
Notley and her MLAs have basically decamped to Calgary for the summer, showing up at every event and taking every chance to door knock with their growing slate of local candidates that includes former city councillor Druh Farrell in Calgary-Bow, energy analyst Samir Kayande in Calgary-Elbow, sustainable energy expert Nagwan Al-Guneid in Calgary-Glenmore. Canadian Forces veteran Marilyn North Peigan in Calgary-Klein, and physician Luanne Metz in Calgary-Varsity.
It’s probably the closest thing Calgary has seen to a Progressive Conservative slate since 2015 but the NDP still have a lot of hard work ahead of them to convince Calgarians to vote for them en masse in 2023.
But the UCP leadership candidate the NDP might fear the most so far hasn’t been playing the same cards as Smith, Toews, Jean and Loewen.
The first-term MLA from Calgary-Shaw and former children’s service minister had already nabbed an endorsement from Rona Ambrose but the former interim Conservative Party leader is now chairing her campaign.
Schulz and her husband were political staffers in Wall’s government before moving to Calgary seven years ago and her husband worked for McMillan as VP Communications of CAPP.
It’s hard to tell where her politics are. Schulz seems more moderate than the rest of the pack, which isn’t saying much, but how much more moderate is not clear.
Along with her political establishment connections, Schulz might become a pretty appealing candidate if there are enough UCP members left who don’t want to fight the next election on COVID conspiracy theories and Alberta separatism.
At the very least, there might actually be enough Saskatchewan expats alone living in Alberta to win a leadership race.
And I would be remise if I failed to mention the other candidates who are also busy yahooing their way through the Stampede.
Rajan Sawhney is running an outsiders campaign, leaning on her years of business experience. She is also a candidate to watch.
And, to no one’s surprise, Village of Amisk Mayor Bill Rockdropped out, citing the high $175,000 candidate entry fee.
It’s a dog’s breakfast, and really could be anyone’s race to win.
There’s strategy at play, for sure, but as one experienced campaign strategist said to me last week, when it comes to leadership campaigns, a lot more depends on dumb luck than people think.
Lawyer Andrea James is running for the United Conservative Party nomination in Calgary-Elbow.
James holds law degrees from the University of Calgary, the University of Houston, and a master’s degree in Tax Law from the Osgoode School of Law at York University. She is a founder and principal of Jamesco LLP, a boutique corporate and tax law firm.
Current UCP MLA Doug Schweitzer has announced he will not seek re-election. The NDP nominated energy analyst Samir Kayande and the Alberta Party named lawyer Kerry Cundal as its candidate. Before Schweitzer’s election in 2019, the riding was represented by Alberta Party MLA Greg Clark.
Former County Councillor challenging MLA Michaela Frey in Brooks-Medicine Hat
Mara Nesbitt is planning to challenge MLA Michaela Frey for the UCP nomination in Brooks-Medicine Hat.
Nesbitt is a former County of Newell councillor, constituency assistant for a former MLA Lyle Oberg and is a member of the UCP board of directors in the southeast Alberta riding. Nesbitt was defeated by Arno Doerksen in a bid for the Progressive Conservative Party nomination in Strathmore-Brooks in 2008.
The NDP nominated retired teacher Gwendoline Dirk and the Alberta Party nominated its leader and former Brooks mayor Barry Morishita.
Prasad Panda nominated in Calgary-Egmont
Prasad Panda secured the UCP nomination in Calgary-Egmont. The newly appointed Transportation Minister first entered cabinet in 2019 and was first elected as a Wildrose MLA in the Calgary-Foothills by-election held after former premier Jim Prentice resigned on election night in 2015. He was re-elected in the redrawn Calgary-Egmont in 2019.
Panda previous ran as the Wildrose Party candidate in Calgary-Northern Hills in 2012 and 2015.
The NDP nominated Julia Hayter as its candidate.
Horsman and Sherman jump into UCP leadership race
There are two more candidates declaring their plans to enter the UCP leadership race: former Alberta Treasury Branches Vice President Jon Horsman and former PC MLA and Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman.
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Note: I’ll be taking a break over the next week and a but to enjoy the beginning of summer. Happy Canada Day and happy July. It was a long winter but we made it, folks!
The first-term MLA and former UCP leadership candidate issued a Victoria Day statement announcing that he will be stepping out of elected politics when the next election is called. He is the first UCP cabinet minister to announce plans to leave office in 2023.
Doug Schweitzer’s statement announcing he will not run for re-election.
Largely shying away from social conservative issues embraced by some of his colleagues, he was widely named as someone who could take up the mantle of the business conservative-style candidate for the UCP leadership.
Schweitzer was first elected in 2019 by defeating Alberta Party MLA Greg Clark. He won with 44 per cent of the vote, compared to 30 per cent for Clark and 23 per cent for Alberta NDP candidate Janet Eremenko (who is now nominated as the NDP candidate in the neighbouring Calgary-Currie).
Samir Kayande (source: Pembina Instittute)
Premier Jason Kenney chose him as Minister of Justice and Solicitor General when the first UCP cabinet was sworn-in and shuffled him to Minister of Jobs, Economy and Innovation in 2020.
This leaves an open race for the UCP nomination in Calgary-Elbow, a riding that is considered competitive in the next election.
Kerry Cundal
The NDP are putting their hopes in energy analyst Samir Kayande and lawyer and former federal Liberal Party candidate Kerry Cundal recently announced she will be running for the Alberta Party nomination on May 29.
The riding has been somewhat of a swing-riding for the past 15 years after Liberal Craig Cheffins won the 2007 by-election to replace former premier Ralph Klein, who had represented the south west Calgary riding since 1989.
Clark almost won a 2014 by-election to replace another former premier, Alison Redford, and went on to win in the 2015 election.
More nomination news
Alberta Party leader Barry Morishita was nominated as his party’s candidate in Brooks-Medicine Hat at a May 17 meeting, which was pushed up from a previously scheduled May 25 meeting.
Registered Nurse Diana Batten is expected to be nominated as the NDP candidate in Calgary-Acadia on May 26.
Edmonton-Meadows MLA Jasvir Deol will be nominated as his party’s candidate on May 28. He was first elected in 2019.
Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse will be nominated as the NDP candidate in Edmonton-Rutherford on May 28. She succeeds two-term MLA Richard Feehan, who is not seeking re-election.
Shiraz Mir is the second candidate to announce their candidacy for the NDP nomination in Calgary-North West.
Jeff Manchak is the third candidate to enter the NDP race in Sherwood Park. Already in the race are former MLA Annie McKitrick and solar energy expert Kyle Kasawski.
And here are the upcoming candidate nomination meetings:
It must have been craft beer and pizza with extra vegan cheese night at Alberta NDP HQ last night.
Not only is Premier Jason Kenney stepping down as leader of the United Conservative Party but he’s staying on until the next leader is chosen, whenever that will be.
And that certainly gives the NDP a reason to celebrate, at least for one night.
If Rachel Notley is the Alberta NDP’s most valuable player then Kenney is the runner up.
Kenney’s plummeting popularity has been a key to the NDP’s success in fundraising, organizing and recruiting candidates.
The NDP had $5.5 million in the bank at the end of 2021.
That’s a campaign war chest.
They have 24 candidates nominated, including some who won actual contested nomination races.
It’s understandable why UCP MLAs decided to keep Kenney around rather than choosing an interim leader,but this will probably only help the NDP.
She billed them as ‘a united, capable team of Albertans who are focused on making life better for Alberta families and businesses.’
Notley and NDP MLAs have been spending every spare moment in Calgary.
It’s a full-court press.
They know they have to make big gains in the province’s largest city to form government.
And they have some impressive bench strength.
Former city councillor Druh Farrell in Calgary-Bow.
Energy analyst Samir Kayende in Calgary-Elbow.
Sustainable energy expert Nagwan Al-Guneid in Calgary-Glenmore.
Canadian Forces veteran and police commission vice-chair Marilyn North Peigan in Calgary-Klein.
Physician Luanne Metz in Calgary-Varsity.
Calgarians with impressive resumes who could presumably become cabinet ministers on Day 1 of a new Notley government, which is what she will need if her party wins in 2023.
It feels more like a Progressive Conservative lineup than a traditional working-class NDP slate.
That’s Alberta politics today.
But even as they lead the province-wide polls, the path to victory is still steep for the NDP.
It’s not a slam dunk.
Their support is concentrated in Edmonton, where they already have almost every seat.
They will need to make big gains Calgary, and Lethbridge and the ridings surrounding Edmonton.
But that might not be enough.
They also need to win seats in small cities and rural Alberta where the electoral math gets a lot harder, especially if the UCP remains “united” in the next election.
Red Deer? Medicine Hat? Grande Prairie? Fort McMurray?
Those are tough nuts to crack.
The UCP swept those cities with huge victories in 2019.
But there are a few opportunities for the NDP outside of the big cities.
Former cabinet minster and Registered Nurse Danielle Larivee in Lesser Slave Lake.
Conservation scientist Sarah Elmeligi in Banff-Kananaskis.
Former city councillor Rob Miyashiro in Lethbridge-East.
Former county councillor Karen Shaw in Morinville-St Albert.
County Councillor Bill Tonita in Strathcona-Sherwood Park.
Maybe former cabinet minister Oneil Carlier in Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland.
It gets harder to name obvious potential NDP pickups after that.
My back of napkin math puts the NDP at probably around 44 or 45 seats if they hold their current support in the polls.
The barest of majorities in the 87 seat legislature.
But, as some of us have learned the hard way, campaigns matter.
And we still don’t know who the next UCP leader will be.
If Kenney somehow finds his way back into his party’s good graces then it’s probably good news for the NDP.
But if another person is leading the UCP into 2023, it could be a different ballgame.
The old PC Party had an uncanny ability to reinvent itself under new leaders.
It’s a big reason the PC Party was able to hold on to government for 43 straight years.
That magic charm totally evaporated in 2015.
We don’t know ifthe UCP has inherited this self-preservation trait.
It certainly doesn’t look like it right now.
But even in disarray the UCP shouldn’t be underestimated.
They are still a powerful force in Alberta politics.
And they could still win in 2023, or sooner if an early election is called.
It’s something for our friends at the NDP to keep in mind as they nurse their celebratory hangovers this morning.
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I’m trying something new. I’m hoping to share some thoughts on Alberta politics and history on a new Substack and share the platform with some pretty smart people.
Recently nominated Morinville-St. Albert NDP candidate Karen Shaw with St. Albert NDP MLA Marie Renaud.
Former Sturgeon County Councillor Karen Shaw defeated high school teacher James Grondin to win the Alberta NDP nomination in Morinville-St. Albert, a rurban riding located just north of Edmonton.
“This community is Alberta’s Industrial Heartland, and I know the importance of this area not only to Alberta but to all of Canada,” Shaw said.
“I believe that Rachel Notley and Alberta’s NDP will put Alberta on the world stage for all the right reasons, and I want to make sure that Morinville-St Albert has strong representation on that stage,” she said.
Shaw served on County Council from 2007 to 2021, representing the rural areas surrounding the Town of Redwater. She and her family run a cattle farm in the Redwater area.
The riding is currently represented by United Conservative Party MLA and Associate Minister of Natural Gas Dale Nally. Nally was first elected with 50 per cent of the vote in 2019, defeating then-NDP candidate Natalie Birnie who placed second with 33.1 per cent.
Denis Ram second candidate to enter NDP race in Calgary-Cross
Denis Ram
Denis Ram is the second candidate to enter the NDP nomination race in Calgary-Cross. Ram is a student-at-law and founder and executive director of the Complete Complaints Foundation. He is also a former intern editorial writer for The Hill Times in Ottawa.
Whoever wins the NDP nomination will probably face first-term UCP MLA Mickey Amery, who is running for his party’s nomination for re-election. The candidate entry deadline for the UCP nomination is May 3, 2022.
Open UCP nominations in Calgary-Currie, Calgary-Foothils, Calgary-Peigan and Sherwood Park have a candidate entry deadline of May 3, and in Spruce Grove-St. Albert the deadline is set for May 5. It is unclear whether the incumbent UCP MLAs representing these ridings will face any challengers.
The NDP have recently scheduled nomination meetings in Calgary-Acadia for May 26 (Registered Nurse Diana Batten is seeking the nomination), Edmonton-Rutherford for May 29 (Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse is running for the nomination), Airdrie-Cochrane for May 30 (union activist and past candidate Steven Durrell and University of Calgary Associate Law Professor Shaun Fluker are seeking the nomination).
Alberta Party opens nomination race in Calgary-Elbow
It also appears that the Alberta Party has scheduled their first nomination meeting for this election cycle – in Calgary-Elbow on May 29.
The riding was the first and to-date only riding to elect an Alberta Party MLA when, in 2015, party leader Greg Clark unseated Progressive Conservative Education Minister Gordon Dirks.
After the popular Clark was pushed out of the leadership and replaced by Stephen Mandel in 2018, he was unable to win re-election in 2019. Soon after the election, Clark was appointed by the UCP as board chair of Alberta’s balancing pool.
I’m trying something new. I’m hoping to share some thoughts on Alberta politics and history on a new Substack and share the platform with some pretty smart people.
UCP MLA Jason Nixon endorsing Jason Kenney's bid for the leadership of the United Conservative Party.
The United Conservative Party has opened candidate nominations in four ridings held by MLAs loyal to Premier Jason Kenney.
Dates for nomination meetings haven’t been announced but a February 28 deadline for candidates to put their names forward has been announced for Calgary-South East (represented by MLA Matt Jones), Calgary-Shaw (represented by Children’s Services Minister Rebecca Schulz), Cardston-Siksika (represented by UCP Caucus Whip Joseph Schow) and Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre (represented by Environment & Parks Minister and Government House leader Jason Nixon).
Farmer Tim Hoven has announced his plans to challenge Nixon for the nomination and will be launching his campaign at the James River Community Hall on Feb. 17. Hoven was a municipal councillor in Clearwater County from 2017 until his defeat in the 2021 election.
Nurse Tonya Ratushniak running for NDP nomination in Camrose
Registered Psychiatric Nurse Tonya Ratushniak is seeking the NDP nomination in the Camrose riding.
Tonya Ratushniak
“I’m running to become the next NDP candidate in Camrose because mental health, I believe, will be the next wave we need to address. I have the education, passion and experience to ensure the needs of mental health are no longer ignored. No longer thought of as the ugly stepchild of the healthcare system.”
“I see firsthand how rural mental health services have been eroded by UCP policies,” she said. “Wait times have become so long that many problems go undiagnosed, treatment centers have been closed and mental health beds have been reduced.”
Ratushniak works at St. Mary’s Hospital in Camrose as a Mental Health Therapist and serves as the President of the College of Registered Psychiatric Nurses.
She was the federal NDP candidate in the 2021 election in Battle River-Crowfoot, where she placed second and earned 9.8 per cent of the vote.
Saad Siddiq running for UCP nomination in Edmonton-South
Engineer Saad Siddiq is seeking the UCP nomination in Edmonton-South.
Saad Siddiq
“The UCP party is at a cross roads about its identity and I firmly believe that Millennials and Gen-Z representation must be there to make sure our voices are heard,” Siddiq said. “It’s about time we take the charge into our own hands and make Alberta affordable, a place where you have the freedom to exercise your rights and make your own choices and a symbol of tolerance for everyone living in this province and beyond.”
Siddiq is a 24-year old oil and gas engineer who graduated from the University of Calgary in 2020 and has been involved in the Conservative Student Association.
The riding is currently represented by Independent MLA Thomas Dang, who was first elected in 2015 and 2019 under the NDP banner. He left the NDP Caucus in December 2021 after the RCMP executed a search warrant of his house.
Alberta Party leader running in Brooks-Medicine Hat
Alberta Party leader Barry Morishita confirmed on this week’s episode of the Daveberta Podcast that he plans to seek his party’s nomination to run in his home riding when the next election is called. Morishita served as Mayor of the City of Brooks from 2016 to 2021 and served on city council from 1998 to 2004 and 2010 to 2016. The riding is currently represented by UCP MLA Michaela Frey.
Public school teacher second candidate in Calgary-East NDP race
Public school teacher Rosman Valencia is seeking the NDP nomination in Calgary-East.
“I’m running to ensure the voice of our communities in Calgary-East can be heard and be a part of the decision making in shaping Alberta’s future,” said Valencia. “Not only has the UCP’s response to Covid-19 been a daily challenge for us in the classroom, but I also see families struggling with UCP increases to their expenses like insurance, income tax, and electricity. That’s the last thing families need right now.”
Rosman holds a Bachelor of Secondary Education from the Philippine Normal University-Manila and became a teacher in Alberta through the University of Calgary’s Bridge to Teaching Program.
International Avenue Business Revitalization Zone executive director Alison Karim-McSwiney is also seeking the NDP nomination.
Here are a few other nomination updates:
Calgary-Elbow: Energy analyst Samir Kayande has been acclaimed as the NDP candidate. The party will hold an official nomination meeting on March 5. Kayande announced his candidacy in November 2021.
Calgary-North East: Gurinder Brar is expected to be acclaimed as the NDP candidate at a February 17 nomination meeting. Brar announced his candidacy in January 2022.
Rachel Notley and Danielle Larivee during the 2019 election.
Former MLA Danielle Larivee announced this morning that she is running for the Alberta NDP nomination in the Lesser Slave Lake riding.
“Our communities have really suffered from poor representation since 2019,” Larivee said in a press release. “I’ve lived in Slave Lake for over 40 years, and the people of Lesser Slave Lake are like family to me. I’m ready to get back to spending time with and listening to people across the constituency so that I can be a strong voice for our families and communities.”
Poll level results in Lesser Slave Lake in the 2019 election (source: Election-Atlas.ca)
A Registered Nurses and Vice President of United Nurses of Alberta, Larivee represented the sprawling northern Alberta riding from 2015 to 2019. Before and after her time as MLA she worked as a public health nurse and she is the co-chair of the Slave Lake Homeless Coalition Society.
“Our public healthcare system is not safe in the hands of Kenney and the UCP. They keep moving forward with privatizing our public health care, they attacked the frontline instead of supporting it, with little care for the crisis they have created. I am prepared to fight for high quality public healthcare instead of dismantling it.”
Larivee was first elected in 2015, unseating seven-term Progressive Conservative MLA Pearl Calahasen, and served as Minster of Municipal Affairs from 2015 to 2017 and Minister of Children’s Services from 2017 to 2019. As Children’s Services Minister she oversaw the launch of Alberta’s affordable childcare pilot program.
Pat Rehn
She was unseated in the 2019 election by United Conservative Party candidate Pat Rehn. Rehn was a relatively unknown backbencher until he gained national attention in January 2021 after flying to Mexico for a hot holiday in contravention of the provincial government’s COVID-19 public health recommendations.
The entire town council of Slave Lake, the largest municipality in the riding, called on him to resign for being an absentee MLA and being unwilling to live or spend time in the region since he was elected. The letter also alleged that he spent “more physical time managing his business in Texas” than being physically present in the constituency.
Rehn was soon after removed from the UCP Caucus and Premier Jason Kenney declared that he would not be allowed to run as a UCP candidate in the next election. But in July 2021 he was quietly allowed to rejoin the UCP Caucus. It is widely suspected he was allowed back in the government caucus so that he would not be tempted to join Drew Barnes and Todd Loewen in a breakaway caucus of former UCP MLAs.
On a recent episode of the Cross Border Interview Podcast, host Chris Brown speculated that Town of Slave Lake Mayor Tyler Warman could run for the UCP nomination in the riding. Warman was a vocal critic of Rehn and one of the many municipal leaders who called on him to resign.
The NDP are scheduled to hold the nomination meeting in Lesser Slave Lake on March 13, 2022.
The NDP also have nomination meetings scheduled in Calgary-North East on February 17, 2022 (Gurinder Brar is expected to be acclaimed), Calgary-Elbow on March 5 (Samir Kayande is expected to be nominated), Calgary-Bhullar-McCall on March 10, (where MLA Irfan Sabir is expected to be acclaimed) and in Calgary-Klein on March 26, 2022 (a contested nomination between Heather Eddy and Mattie McMillan).
Usman Sadiq (centre) joined NDP MLAs Irfan Sabir (left) and Sarah Hoffman (right) to talk about the lack of schools in northwest Calgary in 2021.
NDP MLA Irfan Sabir has filed his papers with Elections Alberta to run for his party’s nomination in the recently renamed Calgary-Bhullar-McCall riding in the next election. Sabir has represented the riding in the Alberta Legislature since 2015.
Sabir was first elected in Calgary-McCall 2015 with 29.9 per cent in a four way race with the Wildrose, Progressive Conservative and Liberal candidates, and in 2019 he was re-elected with 51.7 per cent, defeating United Conservative Party candidate Jasraj Hallan (who is now the Conservative Member of Parliament for Calgary-Forest Lawn).
Manmeet Bhullar
He served as Minister of Community and Social Services from 2015 to 2019.
The NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting in the riding on March 10, 2022.
Usman Sadiq running for NDP nomination in Calgary-Foothills
Usman Sadiq is running for the NDP nomination in Calgary-Foothills.
Sadiq is an instructor at the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology and previously worked as a Vice-President of Financial Services for CIBC. He also serves on the Board Of Directors of the Canadian Association for Children’s Education in Pakistan.
In March 2021, Sadiq spoke out about the lack of public schools in northwest Calgary after his children were forced to commute long distances to attend school.
“But not building new schools, it’s very short-sighted,” Sadiq told the Calgary Herald. “It has a huge impact on many families. If you don’t build now, what about in a year, or five years? Will families from places like Ontario even come to Calgary, invest in Calgary, where there aren’t enough schools?”
Jason Luan
The riding is currently represented by UCP MLA Jason Luan, who currently serves as Minister of Community and Social Services. He was elected in 2019 with 56 per cent of the vote.
Luan previously represented the Calgary-Hawkwood riding as a PC MLA from 2012 until he was defeated by NDP candidate Michael Connolly in the 2015 election.
The NDP have scheduled nomination meetings in Calgary-North East on February 17, 2022 (Gurinder Brar is expected to be acclaimed), Calgary-Elbow on March 5 (Samir Kayande is expected to be nominated) and in Calgary-Klein on March 26, 2022 (a contested nomination between Heather Eddy and Mattie McMillan).
Energy analyst and strategy consultant Samir Kayande has announced he is seeking the Alberta NDP nomination in Calgary-Elbow.
Samir Kayande (source: Pembina Instittute)
“Enhancing our already-enviable quality of life in the face of worldwide commitments to reduce pollution requires foresight, creativity and vision,” Kayande said in a press release. “Albertans must protect what we have while preparing for the future.”
“Sadly, the UCP government has failed to deliver on their promise of economic prosperity,” Kayande said. “A strong, caring Alberta with an NDP government will attract and keep high-paying jobs, and my expertise can help build that future.”
Kayande has a Chemical Engineering degree from the University of Alberta and a Master of Business Administration from the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University. According to his press release, he has advised institutional money managers—pension funds, mutual funds, private equity—on their energy portfolios.
If successful in the nomination, Kayande would likely face United Conservative Party MLA Doug Schweitzer in the next provincial election. Currently serving as Minister of Jobs, Economy and Innovation, Schweitzer ran for the UCP leadership in 2017 and is considered by many to be a potential leadership candidate if Premier Jason Kenney resigns before the next election.
Klein’s first provincial election saw him win in a close race against Liberal candidate Gilbert Clark, the father of future MLA Greg Clark.
The NDP candidate from the 2019 election, Janet Eremenko, is currently challenging former MLA Brian Malkinson for the nomination in the neighbouring Calgary-Currie riding. Eremenko recently posted a photo on social media showing her campaigning for the nomination with the support of former City Councillor Evan Woolley.
The NDP have not announced a date for the Calgary-Elbow nomination meeting.
