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Alberta Politics

Tina Warawa, Sanjeev Kad, and Janice Fleming running for UCP nominations

Tina Warawa is running for the UCP nomination in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville.

    • Warawa is a former mayor and councillor of the Village of Andrew and served on Vegreville town council from 2017 to 2025. She is the former president of the Vegreville Minor Hockey Association.
    • She works as a constituency assistant for Lakeland Conservative MP Shannon Stubbs and previous worked in a similar role for Progressive Conservative MLA Jacquie Fenske from 2012 to 2015.
    • The riding is currently represented by UCP MLA Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk. She was first elected in 2019 and was re-elected in 2023 with 58 per cent of the vote.

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Alberta Politics

Rebecca Schulz resigns, UCP and NDP set nomination dates for Calgary-Shaw by-election

A by-election in Calgary-Shaw is imminent following the resignation of United Conservative Party MLA Rebecca Schulz, who stepped down last month after representing the riding since 2019. Schulz served as Minister of Environment and Protected Areas until her resignation from cabinet last December.

The UCP nomination contest is now set for June 24 but the race got one candidate smaller this week after Stewart Jeanes was told by the UCP that he will not be allowed to run after his application was deemed incomplete.

Jeanes’ candidacy in the Calgary-Shaw nomination contest was recently endorsed by Mitch Sylvestre, the Alberta separatist leader and UCP constituency president from Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul who led the Stay Free Alberta petition drive to leave Canada.

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Alberta Politics

Alberta NDP name change pushed by group led by former MLA

Alberta’s Progressive Future calls for Alberta NDP to distance itself from the Ottawa NDP

When I worked for the Alberta Liberal Party back in the 2000s, we had an inside joke that the Liberals could run Jesus Christ as a candidate in Wainwright and still lose. It was funny because it was probably true (the last time voters in Wainwright elected a Liberal MLA was in 1909) and was a reflection of how cynical we were that the party had any chance of actually winning any seats in rural Alberta.

I imagine more than a few Alberta NDP supporters felt the same when the results of the 2023 election started rolling in on May 29, 2023. Despite making big gains in Calgary and winning 38 seats province-wide, the party’s hopes of forming government were dashed at the city limits.

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Alberta Politics

Look who’s running in the UCP AGM Board elections

What to make of Take Back Alberta, the Unity Slate, and everybody else on the ballot.

With the United Conservative Party’s November 3 and 4 Annual General Meetingfast approaching, the party’s Board of Director elections are a major focus of attention.

The UCP board is the governing body of the organization and is made up of seventeen elected directors, party leader Premier Danielle Smith, and two non-voting MLAs who serve as Caucus liaisons. The two MLA spots, which are chosen through a vote of UCP MLAs, are currently filled by Camrose MLA Jackie Lovely and Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland MLA Shane Getson.

Half of the UCP director positions are up for election this year and the sweeping success of the slate of candidates backed by the social conservative Take Back Alberta group at last year’s AGM has fuelled a lot of speculation about what might happen in this election.

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Alberta Politics

After the election: What different scenarios mean for Alberta

Before the collapse of the Progressive Conservative Party in 2015, being a PC Party member – or at least participating in PC Party events – was extremely normal. Normal to the point that it was barely political.

If you were a business or a non-profit that depended on government policy, you were a participator to some extent – you kind of had to be. As a decades-old political dynasty, it was the only game in town, and the political dynamic in Alberta showed it.

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Alberta Politics

Take Back Alberta bringing Jordan Peterson and Tea Party politics to Alberta

A controversial right-wing media personality with a huge online following will soon be entering the election fray.

Toronto psychologist Jordan Peterson is making three speaking tour stops in the Alberta next week and will almost certainly provide fodder for local conservative media columnists to chew on.

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Alberta Politics

Alberta’s election starts today. Parties kicked-off the final pre-campaign weekend with big election energy

After a weekend of campaign kick-off rallies in Calgary and Edmonton, Premier Danielle Smith is expected to visit Lieutenant Governor Salma Lakhani today to ask that the Legislature be dissolved and a provincial election be held on May 29.

This will be Alberta’s 31st provincial general election since the province was formed in 1905, and it is also expected to be one of the most competitive in recent memory.

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Alberta Politics

NDP nominate Katherine Swampy in Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin and Kevin McLean in Grande Prairie

The Alberta NDP now have candidates nominated in 80 of 87 ridings after nominating Samson Cree Band Councillor Katherine Swampy in Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin and former city councillor Kevin McLean in Grande Prairie. Nomination meetings are still scheduled for those ridings but the Elections Alberta website indicates both candidates have already been endorsed by the party.

Update: Tanika Chaisson is seeking the NDP nomination in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo. Chaisson is a Laboratory Technician with Suncor and a former National Representative with Unifor. A nomination meeting is scheduled for April 30.

The NDP are expected to announce their candidates in Grande Prairie-Wapiti and Highwood soon.

The United Conservative Party are expected to complete their slate of 87 candidates when they acclaim Lieberson Pang in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood. The candidate entry deadline in the riding was yesterday.

The Green Party has nominated two new candidates, Vanessa Diehl in Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland and Kurt Klingbeil in Morinville-St. Albert, bringing that party’s total number of nominated candidates to 30.

Myles Chykerda has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate in Lacombe-Ponoka. The Alberta Party now has 13 candidates nominated and an email from party president Sid Kobewka to supporters yesterday confirmed the party does not intend to nominate a full slate of candidates in this election.

Independence goes Independent

Alberta’s fractious right-wing fringe parties are becoming even more divided after leadership turmoil in the Wildrose Independence Party and the Independence Party of Alberta. Candidates formerly affiliated with the two Alberta independence parties are declaring themselves to be Independent candidates on the ballot.

The Wildrose Loyalty Coalition, a new unregistered party founded by ousted Wildrose Independence Party leader Paul Hinman, announced that Daniel Jeffries will run as the new coalition’s candidate in Lacombe-Ponoka. Though unless the WLC is able to get official party status before May 10, Jeffries will be listed as an Independent candidate on the ballot.

Former Wexit Alberta interim leader Kathy Flett, who briefly served as the Wildrose Independence Party’s VP Communications, is running as an Independent candidate in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville under the “Independents for Alberta” banner.

Joining Flett as an IFA-affiliated Independent candidate is Angela Tabak, who briefly claimed the title of President of the Wildrose Independence Party following an unsuccessful counter coup, is running as an Independent candidate in Cardston-Siksika.

And in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, former Independence Party candidate Fred Schwieger is now running as an Independent candidate. Schwieger joins a handful of former IPA candidates who are running an Independents since Pastor Artur Pawlowski was ousted from the party leadership last month.

Total Nominated candidates

Here is the current list of nominated candidates:

  • United Conservative Party: 86/87
  • New Democratic Party 80/87
  • Green Party: 30/87
  • Alberta Party: 13/87
  • Liberal Party: 8/87
  • Independence Party of Alberta: 5/87
  • Communist Party: 3/87

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Alberta Politics

UCP slate at 86 candidates with appointees in Edmonton-South, Lethbridge-West and Grande Prairie-Wapiti

The United Conservative Party announced the appointments of three candidates and the acclamation of another, filling the party’s slate to 86 candidates in 87 ridings.

Here are the candidates appointed by Premier Danielle Smith through her powers allowed by the UCP constitution:

  • Edmonton-South: Joseph Angeles is a lawyer who previously ran for the UCP nomination in Edmonton-West Henday. He replaces Tunde Obasan, who withdrew his candidacy last week.
  • Lethbridge-West: Cheryl Seaborn is a Registered Nurse and former president of the UCP association in the riding. She replaces Torry Tanner who won the UCP nomination last month but resigned shortly after when a video surfaced of her claiming young children were being to exposed pornography in schools and teachers were hiding their students’ gender reassignments from parents. 
  • Grande Prairie-Wapiti: Endorsed by the local UCP constituency board of directors, Ron Wiebe will succeed Travis Toews as the UCP candidate in the riding.

And the acclamation: 

Edmonton-Glenora: Melissa Crane is a ministerial press secretary and ran for the UCP nomination in St. Albert in December 2022.

That leaves the UCP one short of a full slate. The UCP nomination in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood closes on April 13. Lieberson Pang is seeking the nomination. 

NDP sets nomination dates

The Alberta NDP have candidates nominated in 78 of 87 ridings and plan to hold nomination meetings to nominate the remainder of the slate before the election is called.

Vegreville Town Councillor Taneen Rudyk is acclaimed in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville and the NDP have scheduled nomination meetings in Maskwacis-Wetaskwin on April 22 (Samson Cree Band Councillor Katherine Swampy is the only approved candidate at the moment) and Grande Prairie on April 30.

UPDATE: Former Grande Prairie city councillor Kevin McLean is running for the NDP nomination in that riding. McLean served on city council from 2010 to 2017 and placed second in the 2022 municipal by-election. He ran for the Liberal Party in the former Grande Prairie-Smoky riding in the 2012 and 2015 provincial elections and in St. Albert in the 2019 election.

Kevin McLean NDP Grande Prairie Nomination
Former Grande Prairie city councillor Kevin McLean’s statement on Facebook,

The ridings without nominated NDP candidates or scheduled nomination meetings are Cardston-Siksika, Drayton Valley-Devon, Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, Grande Prairie-Wapiti, Highwood and Taber-Warner.

Other nomination news

  • Jason McKee is running for the Green Party in Calgary-West.
  • Alberta Party leader Barry Morishita confirmed today in an email to supporters that he will run in the Brooks-Medicine Hat riding in the next election.

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Daveberta Substack Podcast Alberta Politics Election Dave CournoyerA big thank you to the more than 2,000 people who have subscribed to the Daveberta Substack (and more than 100 who signed up for paid subscriptions!).

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Happy Easter to all my readers. I will be taking some time to relax and enjoy the first real weekend of spring, so unless something big happens I’ll be back with more candidate nomination updates next week.

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Alberta Politics

Vegreville Town Councillor and FCM President Taneen Rudyk running for Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville NDP nomination

Vegreville Town Councillor and Federation of Canadian Municipalities President Taneen Rudyk is running for the Alberta NDP nomination in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville.

MLA Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk and Vegreville Town Councillor Taneen Rudyk (source: Taneen Rudyk / Facebook)
MLA Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk and Vegreville Town Councillor Taneen Rudyk (source: Taneen Rudyk / Facebook)

“In addition to province-wide issues such as healthcare and jobs, I remain a champion for the expansion of internet access for all rural Alberta. As an essential service, Albertans need broadband access for agriculture, industry, education, as well as everyday life,” Rudyk said in a statement announcing her run for the nomination.

“I will fight for sustainable long term strategic infrastructure investments for municipalities and not just the current inconsistencies of the boom and bust approach,” said Rudyk. “Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville deserves better and I sincerely believe that Rachel Notley is the leader to make our future better.”

Rudyk is currently serving her fourth term as a Councillor in the town east of Edmonton and has served on the Federation of Canadian Municipalities board of directors since 2017. The FCM is a national advocacy group that represents more than 2,000 Canadian municipalities.

Rudyk operates a pipeline welding business with her husband, Andrew, and is a board member of the Vegreville Association For Living In Dignity (VALID), a fundraising volunteer for Refugee Sponsorship Vegreville, and the former vice-chair of the Alberta Health Services Yellowhead East Health Advisory Council Alberta.

She is the daughter of former Vegreville NDP MLA Derek Fox, who represented the riding in the Alberta Legislature from 1986 to 1993.

The NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting for April 21, 2023.

Rudyk is the latest addition to the group of current and former municipal elected officials running for the NDP in the rural and suburban ridings surrounding Edmonton.

Karen Shaw Rachel Notley Morinville-St. Albert NDP candidate
Karen Shaw with Rachel Notley and a campaign volunteer canvassing in Morinville on November 12, 2023 (source: Rachel Notley/Twitter)

Other municipal leaders on the NDP slate in the donut of ridings surrounding the capital city include Strathcona County Councillor Bill Tonita running in Strathcona-Sherwood Park, former Sturgeon County Councillor Karen Shaw running in Morinville-St. Albert, and former Spruce Grove City Councillor Chantal Saramaga-McKenzie running in Spruce Grove-Stony Plain.

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville is currently represented by United Conservative Party MLA Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk, who was first elected in 2019 with 53 per cent of the vote. Armstrong-Homeniuk was appointed Parliamentary Secretary for Ukrainian Refugee Settlement in October 2022.

The riding was represented by NDP MLA Jessica Littlewood from 2015 to 2019, and Progressive Conservative MLAs Jacquie Fenske from 2012 to 2015 and Ed Stelmach from 2008 to 2012.

Upcoming nomination votes

The UCP has nominated 80 candidates in Alberta’s 87 ridings. The Alberta NDP have nominated 77 candidates. The Green Party has 27 candidates, the Alberta Party has nominated 12 candidates, the Liberal Party has 8, and the Independence Party has at least seven.

Rajan Sawhney

Inderjit Grewal and Harjit Singh Saroya are running for the UCP nomination in Calgary-North East. The nomination vote is tomorrow, April 1.

Calgary-North East is currently represented by UCP MLA and cabinet minister Rajan Sawhney, who announced in February that she would not seek re-election. There has been recent political speculation that she could be appointed as the UCP candidate in Calgary-North West to replace retiring UCP MLA and cabinet minister Sonya Savage.

Gladys Blackmore, Nolan Dyck, Larry Gibson, and Tayyab Parvez are seeking the UCP nomination in Grande Prairie on April 3. The vote is being held to replace retiring UCP MLA Tracy Allard, who was first elected in 2019.

Other nomination news:

Chestermere-Strathmore: UCP MLA Leela Aheer is considering a run for the federal Conservative Party nomination in Calgary-Signal Hill, a seat being vacated by retiring Conservative MP Ron Liepert. Aheer has served as an MLA since 2015 and withdrew from the recent UCP nomination race in her riding after finishing last in the 2022 UCP leadership race and facing a strong nomination challenge from Chantelle De Jonge.

Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood: Lieberson Pang is seeking the UCP nomination.

Edmonton-West Henday: Dan Bildhauer is running for the Liberal Party. He previously ran for the Liberals in Edmonton-Meadowlark in the 2015 election.

Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin: Marie Rittenhouse has been nominated as the Independence Party of Alberta candidate.

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Alberta Politics

Lethbridge-West UCP candidate Torry Tanner resigns after taking down video claiming kindergarten students exposed to pornography in schools

It would be hard to write a nomination update tonight without focusing on the resignation of the United Conservative Party‘s Lethbridge-West candidate, Torry Tanner.

Tanner resigned today after a video posted on her Facebook page circulated on social media this week showed her claiming that young children were being to exposed pornography in schools and teacher were hiding their students gender reassignments from parents. She posted the video during the UCP nomination race in the riding.

“The baseless claims made the UCP candidate for Lethbridge West do not represent the Lethbridge that we know and love,” said Lethbridge-West NDP MLA Shannon Phillips. “We are inclusive and respectful, and Ms. Tanner should take the time to learn more about the community she is hoping to represent.”

Shannon Phillips NDP MLA Lethbridge-West Alberta
Shannon Phillips (source: Shannon Phillips / Facebook)

In response to the video, the UCP appeared to initially just ask Tanner to remove it from her social media feeds, but after pressure grew the party posted a statement from the candidate announcing her resignation.

“During the nomination process, I made a video that, at its core, spoke to my commitment to protecting children. However, it’s clear that my choice of words have distracted not only from the issue I was trying to discuss, but are being used by my political opponents to hurt our chances of winning across the province,” said Tanner in a statement posted online by the UCP.

The statement did not include an apology, which did not go unnoticed by Alberta Teachers’ Association President Jason Schilling, who also happens to live in the riding.

“Tanner’s notice of resignation falls well short. She faults only her ‘choice of words,’ not the lies she embraced, and regrets only that they might hurt the prospects of the United Conservative Party in the next election,” Schilling said.

Tanner, who was also known from her role as a participant in an unsuccessful lawsuit against former Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Deena Hinshaw, defeated local business-owner Rick Dempsey in a nomination vote only a few weeks ago.

The southwest Alberta riding was home to one of the closest races in the 2019 election but a repeat of those results feels unlikely after this. It is expected that the UCP will now appoint a candidate to replace Tanner.

Tanner’s resignation was somewhat reminiscent of the “Lake of Fire” comment that helped destroy Danielle Smith‘s chances of leading the Wildrose Party to win the 2012 election. The incident was dubbed a “bozo-eruption,” a political term that has stuck in Alberta politics ever since.

Tanner’s video was an unhelpful distraction from Premier Smith’s other communications crisis this week – the 11-minute long video of her speaking to radical street pastor and then leader of the separatist Independence Party of Alberta, Artur Pawlowski, about speaking weekly to Department of Justice officials about their pursuit of charges against COVID-19 rule breakers. Smith continues to deny what she said in the video, claiming once again that her language was… “imprecise.”

(I am planning to write more about the Smith-Pawlowski video soon on the Daveberta Substack).

Upcoming nomination votes

With Tanner’s resignation, UCP slate has dropped to 80 candidates in Alberta’s 87 ridings. The Alberta NDP have nominated 77 candidates. The Green Party has 27 candidates, the Alberta Party has nominated 12 candidates, the Liberal Party has seven, and the Independence Party has at least seven.

Candidate nomination votes are currently scheduled for the following dates:

  • April 1 – Calgary-North East UCP
  • April 3 – Grande Prairie UCP
  • April 21 – Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
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Alberta Politics

Finance Minister Travis Toews not running for re-election in Grande Prairie-Wapiti, Sonya Savage withdraws UCP candidacy in Calgary-North West

After months of speculation, Finance Minister Travis Toews announced this morning he will not seek re-election as the United Conservative Party MLA for Grande Prairie-Wapiti. Toews was first elected in 2019 and placed second in the party’s 2022 leadership race.

It was widely believed that Toews would not run again, as a result of last year’s leadership race and the likely possibility that he would not be reappointed to the Finance Minister role if the UCP is re-elected in May.

The letter, posted below, conspicuously misses any mention of Premier Danielle Smith.

Travis Toews announced he will no run for re-election as MLA for Grande Prairie-Wapiti.
Travis Toews announced he will no run for re-election as MLA for Grande Prairie-Wapiti.

And CBC Radio-Canada now reports that Environment Minister Sonya Savage is not running for re-election in Calgary-North West. Savage has served as MLA for that riding since 2019 and was nominated as the UCP candidate for the next election last summer.

Dr. Vankka acclaimed as UCP candidate in Edmonton-Riverview

The UCP board of directors in Edmonton-Riverview acclaimed Dr. Terence Vankka as the party’s candidate in this riding.

Dr. Terence Vankka Edmonton-Riverview UCP United Conservative Party candidate
Dr. Terence Vankka

Dr. Vankka moved to Edmonton in 2000 when he was posted by Canadian Armed Forces as the Western Regional Oral & Maxillofacial Surgeon. Following his military service, he worked in private practice at Kingsway Oral & Maxillofacial Surgery until retiring in 2018. He maintains a teaching position with the Faculty of Medicine & Dentistry at the University of Alberta.

Dr. Venkka previously ran for the UCP nomination in Edmonton-McClung in February 2023.

Former Alberta Prosperity Project CEO and surgeon Dr. Dennis Modry had previously announced his intentions to run.

The riding is currently represented by NDP MLA Lori Sigurdson, who is running for re-election for a third-term as MLA.

And, hot off the presses, Miles Berry has been nominated as the UCP candidate in Edmonton-Gold Bar.

More nomination updates

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville: The NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting for April 21, 2023 in this riding east of Edmonton.

Lesser Slave Lake: A recount in this northern rural riding found that Scott Sinclair defeated Martine Carifelle by 5 votes instead of the 3 votes counted at the nomination meeting on February 26.

Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills: Daniel Brisbin has withdrawn his candidacy for the Green Party in this central Alberta riding.

Upcoming nomination votes

With 66 days left until Election Day, the UCP have nominated candidates in 81 of Alberta’s 87 ridings and Alberta NDP have nominated 77 candidates. The Green Party has 26 candidates, the Alberta Party has nominated 12 candidates and the Liberal Party has one.

Candidate nomination votes are currently scheduled for the following dates:

  • April 1 – Calgary-North East UCP
  • April 3 – Grande Prairie UCP
  • April 21 – Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville

And, if you haven’t already, subscribe to the Daveberta Substack and read the latest column, Smaller parties will have a hard time in Alberta’s 2023 election.

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Alberta Politics

Updated maps! Where candidates are nominated to run in Alberta’s 2023 election

With 83 days left until Alberta’s May 29 provincial election, the two main political parties are close to nominating their full slate of candidates in Alberta’s 87 ridings.

Alberta NDP nominated candidates as of March 6, 2023. Ridings with nominated candidates in dark orange, ridings with scheduled nomination meetings in light orange. (map from https://canadianpolling.ca/diy/ab/)
Alberta NDP nominated candidates as of March 6, 2023. Ridings with nominated candidates in dark orange, ridings with scheduled nomination meetings in light orange. (map from https://canadianpolling.ca/diy/ab/)

The Alberta NDP leads the pack with 75 candidates nominated across the province. NDP leader Rachel Notley will be nominated as her party’s candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona at a pre-election rally at the big NDP campaign training school in Edmonton on March 11. And two candidates – Venkat Akkiraj and Kim Wagner – are vying for the NDP nomination in Calgary-Lougheed on March 14.

The remaining NDP vacancies without scheduled nomination meetings are in the ridings of Cardston-Siksika, Drayton Valley-Devon, Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, Grande Prairie, Grande Prairie-Wapiti, Highwood, Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin, and Taber-Warner.

These are mostly ridings where the NDP is seen as having little chance of winning, though NDP MLAs did represent Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville and parts of Maskwacis-Wetaskwin from 2015 to 2019.

United Conservative Party nominated candidates as of March 6, 2023. Ridings with nominated candidates in dark blue, ridings with scheduled nomination meetings in light blue. (map from https://canadianpolling.ca/diy/ab/)
United Conservative Party nominated candidates as of March 6, 2023. Ridings with nominated candidates in dark blue, ridings with scheduled nomination meetings in light blue. (map from https://canadianpolling.ca/diy/ab/)

The United Conservative Party did not take long to catch up after the party paused nominations to hold a leadership race last fall. With Premier Danielle Smith‘s board-approved nomination in Brooks-Medicine Hat, the UCP now has 73 of its 87 candidate spots filled.

Nominations votes are scheduled for Livingstone-Macleod (March 9, 10, 11), Calgary-Lougheed (March 13), Lethbridge-West (March 14), Cypress-Medicine Hat (March 16), and Leduc-Beaumont (March 18).

That leaves unscheduled or unannounced UCP nominations in Grande Prairie and Grande Prairie-Wapiti (where Finance Minister Travis Toews has not announced his intentions to run for re-election), and the central Edmonton ridings of Edmonton-City Centre, Edmonton-Glenora, Edmonton-Gold Bar, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood, Edmonton-Riverview and Edmonton-Strathcona (which are all among the safest NDP ridings in Alberta).

Green Party of Alberta nominated candidates as of March 6, 2023. Ridings with nominated candidates in dark green. (map from https://canadianpolling.ca/diy/ab/)
Green Party of Alberta nominated candidates as of March 6, 2023. Ridings with nominated candidates in dark green. (map from https://canadianpolling.ca/diy/ab/)
Alberta Party nominated candidates as of March 6, 2023. Ridings with nominated candidates in dark green. (map from https://canadianpolling.ca/diy/ab/)
Alberta Party nominated candidates as of March 6, 2023. Ridings with nominated candidates in blue. (map from https://canadianpolling.ca/diy/ab/)

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Alberta Politics

Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk’s essay fiasco and getting used to Premier Danielle Smith.

The problem with taking a break from writing about Alberta politics of a few days is that it becomes almost impossible to decide what to write about.

This week is no exception.

So here I go.

Let’s start with the essay contest.

Oh boy.

Someone named S. Silver won the third place prize in the “Her Vision Inspires” essay contest that was championed by Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville UCP MLA Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk, now the Associate Minister for the Status of Women.

S. Silver’s award winning essay.

In her award-winning essay, which was given a $200 prize, Silver argued:

“…it is sadly popular to think Albertan children are unnecessary as we can import foreigners to replace us, this is a sickly mentality that amounts to a drive for cultural suicide…”

“to try to promote that women break into careers that men traditionally dominate is not only misguided, but it is harmful.”

“that the best approach would be to reward families for their reproductive service both with financial rewards to offset the financial burden they are taking on and with medals to symbolize their valuable achievement of having 2+ children.”

Whoa. Yeah.

Pretty gross stuff.

After facing a pretty strong public backlash for choosing a racist and sexist essay for the award, Armstrong-Homeniuk issued a written statement saying she disagrees with it and that it shouldn’t have been chosen.

She led the committee that chose it but we don’t know why it was chosen or who else was on the committee with her.

It’s a secret.

UCP MLAs Michaela Frey and Angela Pitt told intrepid CBC reporter Michelle Bellefontaine they had nothing to do with it, as did cabinet ministers Adriana LaGrange and Tanya Fir.

We also don’t know how many essays were submitted to the contest or who “S. Silver” even is.

It’s now been removed but we don’t know how the essay was able to be published on the Legislative Assembly of Alberta website without raising some giant red flags.

Speaker Nathan Cooper said he didn’t know anything about it.

The whole thing is a big exercise in passing the buck.

Moving on, for now.

Nate Glubish and Danielle Smith (source: Twitter)

“Premier Danielle Smith. Get used to it.”

Those seven words from longtime political writer Graham Thomson seem to sum up how a lot of people are thinking the UCP leadership will end.

It feels like the most unlikeliest of outcomes, but in Alberta politics, the unexpected is sometimes the most likely.

It’s almost as if the past ten years never happened, said one conservative friend of mine, in reference to Danielle Smith’s near-win in 2012, her spectacular fall in 2014, and the massive political realignments – Rachel Notley’s NDP winning in 2015 and the formation of the UCP in 2017 – that have shaped Alberta politics since.

But she’s back and people think she’s going to win.

She’s drawing big crowds to her events, she’s getting media attention and she just stole another MLA endorsement away from Travis Toews.

It’s possible that other candidates are selling more memberships or that the preferential ballots could tally in a way that helps other candidates but the biggest indicator that Smith is in the lead is that all the other candidates are attacking her.

Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche MLA Brian Jean, the UCP prince-in-exile, took aim at Smith’s idea to open the Port of Churchill in northern Manitoba to oil exports. It’s a perennially bad idea that never happens but never dies.

Airdrie-East MLA Angela Pitt announced on social media that she was quitting her volunteer role as Rajan Sawhney’s campaign chair, saying she needs to realign with her constituents. That feels like code for she’s worried Smith is going to win the leadership and her supporters – notably campaign chair and former MLA Rob Anderson – might be interested in challenging Pitt for the nomination in the riding.

Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan Conservative MP Garnett Genuis, who is backing Toews, took a swipe at Smith on Twitter after the party’s Medicine Hat leadership debate.

“Non-lawyer cites Wikipedia to explain novel constitutional theory. Danielle Smith is the freeman-on-the-land of this #UCPdebate. And the other candidates’ responses to her clearly show that they understand what dire consequences her success would spell for our movement,” Genuis tweeted on July 27, 2022.

Not naming but clearly targeting Smith in an online video, Rebecca Schulz described the front-runner as “unhinged and unreasonable” and “lighting her hair on fire.”

Schulz’s video announced that Calgary-Midnapore MP Stephanie Kusie has joined Rona Ambrose as campaign co-chair.

Trying to out-co-chair her opponents is an odd strategy, and is a role that is usually left to the backrooms, but it’s pretty clear that Schulz is trying desperately to position herself as the ABD – Anybody but Danielle – candidate in the UCP race – especially for conservatives not enthralled by Toews beige and boring campaign.

Toews’ establishment-favourite campaign appears to be losing steam.

Having to fight back criticisms about Dr. Deena Hinshaw’s six-figure bonus undermined his claim of being fiscally responsible. And he lost the support of another UCP MLA this week when Strathcona-Sherwood Park MLA Nate Glubish, the Minister of Service Alberta, abandoned Toews and switched his endorsement to Smith.

In almost any other mainstream conservative leadership race, even in Alberta, Smith’s promotion of conspiracy theories and snake oil COVID cures, promises to impose unconstitutional laws, and more would probably disqualify her on the ballots of a lot of conservatives.

But this unruly UCP appears to be a very different beast than the old Progressive Conservative Party it absorbed six years ago. And Smith has used her decades of experience in politics and media to fine tune a message that appeals to a motivated chunk of today’s UCP base.

This most unexpected of outcomes is a surprise when you consider the rules of the leadership race were almost designed to quell an insurgent campaign.

The high entry fee ($175,000), signature requirements (1,000) and early membership cut off date (August 12) were designed for an establishment candidate.

Of course this is all about who sells the most memberships, and some candidates might be out there quietly selling a ton of memberships, but the early cutoff date means the days of the “two-minute Tories” who propelled Ralph Klein, Ed Stelmach and Alison Redford into the Premier’s Office are long gone.

Ideological conservatives hated it, but anybody being able to walk into the voting station on voting day and buy a membership ensured the PC Party constantly reinvented itself as a big tent party – arguably the biggest success of its 43 years of uninterrupted power.

But Smith isn’t campaigning to lead a big tent and a lot of people think she’s going to pull it off.

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Alberta Politics

The race for UCP leader on the Cross Border Politics Podcast

As the United Conservative Party leadership race begins to take shape, I joined Chris Brown on his Cross Border Interviews Podcast to talk about the race, the declared and prospective candidates, and what impact it will have on Alberta politics.

Cross Border Interviews with Chris Brown · Episode 393 – The Race For The UCP Leadership

It appears that the UCP will allow Calgary MP Michelle Rempel Garner to enter the leadership race, if she chooses, even though she has not had a current party membership for the full past six months as required (there is no doubt she is a committed Conservative partisan).

A similar request for an exemption by former Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman was denied.

Kenney’s caretaker cabinet shuffle

Outgoing Premier Jason Kenney announced a cabinet shuffle to fill in the spots left by ministers leaving to run in the race to replace him.

Changes to the caretaker cabinet, which will be in place until a new Premier takes office after the October 6 UCP leadership vote, include:

  • Minister of Environment and Parks and Acting President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance Jason Nixon becomes President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance.
  • Associate Minister of Status of Women Whitney Issik becomes Minister of Environment and Parks.
  • Calgary-South East MLA Matt Jones becomes Minister of Children’s Services.
  • Minister of Infrastructure Prasad Panda becomes Minister of Transportation.
  • Calgary-Currie MLA Nicholas Milliken becomes Minister of Infrastructure.
  • Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville MLA Jackie Armstrong Homeniuk becomes the Associate Minister of Status of Women.
  • Deputy Government Whip Brad Rutherford becomes Chief Government Whip and Minister without Portfolio.

Unsurprisingly, everyone on the list is considered a loyalist, and a few, notably Issik, Milliken, and Rutherford, are considered vulnerable to strong NDP challenges in the next election.

Issik, Jones and Armstrong Homeniuk have publicly endorsed former finance minister Travis Toews for the UCP leadership, who is widely considered the establishment favourite in the race.