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Alberta Politics

UCP probably, maybe narrowly back on top in political party fundraising in 2022 Q1. We’ll have to take their word for it.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, thumbing his nose at Albertans with a Calgary Stampede Victory pennant in his office during a Facebook Live session.

The United Conservative Party is probably, maybe leading the pack in political party fundraising for the first time since 2020. But we’ll just have to take their word for it.

The political party fundraising results from the first financial quarter of 2022 were released today, but because of changes the UCP made to political finance laws in 2021, money raised by constituency associations are no longer included in the quarterly disclosures.

The UCP claims the totals (see below) don’t include more than $375,000 raised by constituency associations. This is probably true, but we won’t actually know until Elections Alberta releases its next annual report sometime in early 2023.

So instead of having the kind of transparency that showed Albertans what political parties AND constituency associations actually raised in each quarter, we are now stuck comparing apples and oranges.

The funny thing is that if the UCP hadn’t made the disclosure laws less transparent, they would probably be getting positive headlines instead of having to spin a days worth of “but wait!” tweets.

Unlike the UCP and most other parties, the Alberta NDP has long disclosed all its fund-raising centrally, so all of the NDP’s fundraising will still be reported quarterly.

Here are the political party fundraising results for the first quarter of 2022 released by Elections Alberta today:

NDP – $1,037,511.32
UCP – $887,974.49
Pro-Life Political Association – $67,564.93
Alberta Party – $29,006.45
Liberal – $19,667
Wildrose Independence – $14,205
Green Party – $1,920
Independence Party – $390
Alberta Advantage Party – $310

The Communist Party, Reform Party, and Buffalo Party reported no funds raised int he first three months of 2022.

The UCP fundraising has improved, but it is nowhere near as dominant it was in its heydays before 2020, when Rachel Notley‘s NDP began a near two-year streak of out-fundraising the governing conservative party.

It is something somewhat positive that Jason Kenney can point to as UCP members vote to decide his fate in the leadership review (but he might have to explain why he made political fundraising less transparent), but as we get closer to the next election it’s looking more like a competitive fundraising race between the NDP and UCP.

Meanwhile, Elections Alberta 2021 annual report showed the NDP with $5,598,136.01 and the UCP with $1,141,647.39 in the bank at the end of last year.

I’m sure I might have more thoughts to share about this as I pour through the disclosure reports this week, so stay tuned!

(And, one more time, feel free to sign up for the Daveberta Substack.)

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Alberta Politics

NDP leads in fundraising, again, but UCP bounces back after weak returns in early 2021

The Alberta NDP raised more cash than the United Conservative Party in the third quarter of 2021, according to financial documents released today by Elections Alberta.

According to the returns, the NDP raised $1,367,080 and the UCP raised $1,235,482 between July 1 and Sept. 30, 2021.

While these results are better for the UCP than the previous quarters, this marks the fourth quarter in a row that Rachel Notley’s NDP have out-fundraised Jason Kenney‘s UCP. The NDP raised twice as much money as the UCP in the final quarter of 2020 and the first and second quarters of 2021.

Alberta NDP and United Conservative Party fundraising from 2019 Q4 to 2021 Q3.
Alberta NDP and United Conservative Party fundraising from 2019 Q4 to 2021 Q3.

The NDP have raised a stunning $4,060,290 since Jan. 1, 2021, dominating the governing UCP, which is trailing with $2,596,202 raised since the beginning of the year. It is pretty clear that the weak overall fundraising returns from the UCP have a result of Kenney’s plummeting personal approval ratings and the party’s dropping support in the polls.

The UCP’s bump in donations over the summer are likely a result of the party’s fundraising efforts in between the day when Kenney declared “Alberta open for the summer and open for good” and the start of the deadly fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to the disclosures, $183,700 of the UCP’s total cash raised in the third quarter was from Agriculture and Forestry Minister Devin Dreeshen‘s Innisfail-Sylvan Lake constituency association, likely generated at the annual horse derby fundraising event (Dreeshen has found himself at the centre of a sexual harassment and intoxication scandal). And $110,947 of the UCP’s total fundraising for the past quarter was raised by MLA Dan Williams constituency association in Peace River, likely at an August “town hall” fundraiser that featured Kenney and a number of cabinet ministers.

The Pro-Life Political Association, birthed from a hostile takeover of the moribund Social Credit Party in 2016, raised a surprising $92,560 in the third quarter. The party, which ran only one candidate in the 2019 election, is using the party as a vehicle for anti-abortion political activism that can legally issue tax-receipts for donations. It is unclear whether the party will move more aggressively into electoral politics in the 2023 election.

Here is what all of Alberta’s registered political parties raised in the third quarter of 2021:

  • Alberta NDP: $1,367,080.50
  • United Conservative Party: $1,235,482.45
  • Pro-Life Political Association: $92,560.92
  • Wildrose Independence: $53,839.92
  • Alberta Party: $31,617.41
  • Alberta Liberal Party: $13,930.54
  • Independence Party of Alberta: $1,740.00 
  • Green Party: $1,314.00
  • Alberta Advantage Party: $300.00

The Communist Party and Reform Party did not report any funds raised in this quarter.

NDP nominate Hoffman and Boporai

Parmeet Singh Boporai

The NDP have nominated two more candidates ahead of the expected 2023 provincial election. Sarah Hoffman was nominated in Edmonton-Glenora on Oct. 27 and Parmeet Singh Boparai in Calgary-Falconridge on Oct. 29.

Hoffman is the NDP deputy leader and was first elected as an MLA in 2015 after serving two terms on the Edmonton Public School Board.

Boparai finished a close second to UCP candidate Devinder Toor – losing by 96 votes in 2019 in the closest race of the provincial election.

The NDP have scheduled nomination meetings in Calgary-Currie on Nov. 13, and Calgary-Buffalo on Nov. 15 and Lethbridge-East on Nov. 21.

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Alberta Politics

NDP clobbers UCP in fundraising, again. Notley’s party raised twice as much cash as Kenney’s UCP in the second quarter of 2021

Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley (source: Facebook)
Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley in 2019 (source: Facebook)

The Alberta NDP raised twice as much money as the United Conservative Party in the second quarter of 2021, according to financial documents released today by Elections Alberta.

According to the returns, the NDP raised $1,515,419 and the UCP raised $769,847 between April 1 and June 30, 2021.

This marks the second quarter in a row that Rachel Notley’s NDP have out-fundraised the governing UCP. The NDP raised twice as much money as the UCP in the first three months of 2021.

Here is what all of Alberta’s registered political parties raised in the second quarter of 2021:

  • Alberta NDP: $1,515,419.87
  • United Conservative Party: $769,847.15
  • Pro-Life Political Association: $90,870.00
  • Alberta Party: $38,270.19
  • Wildrose Independence: $25,791.06
  • Alberta Liberal Party: $25,563.61
  • Green Party: $2,019.00
  • Independence Party of Alberta: $1,015.00
  • Alberta Advantage Party: $890.00
  • Communist Party: $200.00

Once again, Notley’s NDP are on a roll, leading in the polls and continuing to dominate in fundraising. The NDP have solidified a larger base of donors, many whom appear to be contributing larger amounts to the official opposition party. In this quarter, 49 per cent of individual donations received by the NDP in the first quarter were in denominations of less than $250, compared to 64 per cent in the previous quarter.

The governing UCP’s continued drop in fundraising continues to mirror plummeting political support for the party and its leader, Premier Jason Kenney. The UCP raised in total only slightly more than the NDP raised in small donations in the second quarter.

The Pro-Life Political Association, birthed from a hostile takeover of the moribund Social Credit Party in 2016, raised a surprising $90,870.00 in the second quarter. The party, which ran only one candidate in the 2019 election, is using the party as a vehicle for anti-abortion political activism that can legally issue tax-receipts for donations. It is unclear whether the party will move more aggressively into electoral politics in the 2023 election.

The Reform Party raised no funds in the second quarter.

The maximum annual donation to political parties was increased to $4,243 from $4.000 as of January 1, 2020.

Smaller parties search for leaders

Paul Hinman Wildrose Independence Party MLA
Paul Hinman

Former Wildrose MLA Paul Hinman was recently acclaimed as the leader of the separatist Wildrose Independence Party. Hinman served as interim leader of the party before declaring himself a candidate for the permanent job.

The Wildrose Independence Party is a product of a name-change that happened after the Freedom Conservative Party and the Wexit Alberta group united. The party itself has existed under various names since it was founded in 1999 as the Alberta First Party.

The Independence Party of Alberta is also searching for a new leader following Dave Bjorkman’s resignation after the 2019 election. Former Wexit leader Peter Downing, who left the Wexit group following its merger with the Freedom Conservative Party had registered to be a leadership candidate but withdrew his candidacy this week. The party’s director of communications, Vicky Bayford, is the only candidate remaining in the race.

Also searching for new permanent leaders are the Alberta Advantage Party, the Alberta Party, and the Alberta Liberal Party.

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NDP ride high as UCP fundraising plummets in second quarter of 2020

Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley (source: Facebook)
Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley in 2019 (source: Facebook)

The opposition New Democratic Party has out-fundraised the United Conservative Party for the first time since 2017, according to political party financial disclosures released by Elections Alberta.

The NDP raised $1,032,796.85 between April and June 2020, almost twice as much as the governing UCP, which raised $642,677 in the second quarter of 2020.

This is almost the opposite of the first quarter of 2020, in which the UCP raised $1.2 million and the NDP trailed with $582,130.

The UCP raised $7.37 million in 2019 but has has been feeling financial strain after the conservative party racked up a $2.3 million deficit and was forced to apply for the federal wage subsidy program in order to keep its staff on payroll. The party also saw significant turnover in its staff leadership as it hired its third executive director in three years when Dustin van Vugt was hired to replaced Brad Tennant, who left earlier this year to join Nick Koolsbergen’s lobbyist company.

Alberta’s political parties largely stopped in-person fundraising events since the COVID-19 pandemic began but they all continued with their traditional aggressive email and social media appeals.

The NDP held a number of Zoom fundraisers featuring musical acts and guest speakers during the pandemic but it is the actions of the UCP that likely helped boost the NDP’s cash flow.

While the UCP would still likely be re-elected if an election were held tomorrow, public opinion polls show that Albertans do not approve of the government’s handling of health care, education and post-secondary education issues.

I haven’t had a chance to thoroughly look through the list of individual donors, but I would not be surprised if the very public fight between Health Minister Tyler Shandro and the Alberta Medical Association means there are less doctors showing up on the UCP’s list in this quarter.

The size of the donations received by the parties is also worth noting. More than half of the donations to the NDP were in amounts of $250 or less, while almost two-thirds of donations to the UCP were in denominations over $250.

One of the big successes of the UCP’s predecessor party, the Wildrose Party, was its ability to cultivate a large base of small donors, something that the UCP appears to have trended away from (the UCP received nearly 90 individual donations of $4,000 in the first quarter of 2020).

I am told that the NDP raised around $10,000 in small donations during an impromptu social media campaign encouraging supporters to donate to the NDP to celebrate Premier Jason Kenney‘s birthday on May 30.

While the UCP will likely recover their fundraising advantage or at least become more competitive with the NDP in future quarters, it does show that Kenney’s party faces some significant internal financial problems. And for the NDP, it shows that despite losing last year’s election the party under Rachel Notley‘s leadership has continued to maintain a strong base of donors during its first year as official opposition, and, presumably, as government-in-waiting.

Here is what the political parties raised during the second quarter of 2020:

The Pro-Life Alberta Political Association and Reform Party of Alberta reported no donations during this period.

The maximum annual donation to political parties was increased to $4,243 from $4,000 as of January 1, 2020.

Parties move to virtual conventions

The UCP and the Alberta Party have both announced plans to forgo their annual in-person conventions, opting to hold the meetings online this year.

The UCP’s virtual AGM will be held on October 16, 17 and 24 and will feature policy debates, board and executive elections and the traditional MLA bear-pit session.

The Alberta Party’s virtual annual general meeting is scheduled to be held on August 29 and will include board elections and likely discussion around the process to select a new leader.

Jacquie Fenske
Jacquie Fenske

Former Progressive Conservative MLA Jacquie Fenske stepped up to become interim leader of the Alberta Party in February 2020, replacing former PC MLA Stephen Mandel who resigned after failing to win a seat in the 2019 election. Fenske previously served as MLA for Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville from 2012 to 2015 and as a Councillor in Strathcona Country from 1995 to 1998 and 2004 to 2012.

Meanwhile, the UCP has scheduled its first major COVID-era in-person fundraiser on August 14, which will take the form of a horse race derby at a race track outside Lacombe.

Tickets to watch Kenney and UCP MLAs compete in a horse race, including a T-Rex race that will feature MLAs racing in “their t-rex dinosaur costumes,” start at $100 for the “MLA Cheer Team” and go as high as $3000 for the “Ralph Klein VIP Suite.”

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Calgary-Lougheed by-election report reveals $885,206.29 in NDP donations not reported in regular quarterly reports

Elections Alberta has released the initial campaign finance reports from political parties during the Calgary-Lougheed by-election held on December 14, 2017.

Jason Kenney
Jason Kenney

Due to a strange quirk in Alberta’s election finance laws, all or most donations collected by political parties during the official by-election period between November 16, 2017 and February 14, 2018 were not reported in the regular quarterly financial reports. Those donations are instead included in this by-election report.

The report showed the Alberta NDP raising $885,206.29 in donations during this three month period, which would include the party’s aggressive year-end fundraising appeal.

When combined with the quarterly reports, this means the NDP fundraised more than $1.5 million in the period covering the final quarter of 2017 and first quarter of 2018.

The Alberta Liberal Party reported raising $79,083.09, the Reform Party reported raising $8,500, and the Green Party reported raising $8,580.00 during the by-election period.

The United Conservative Party did not file a report before the Election Alberta deadline.

The Alberta Party did not file a report because they did not participate in the Calgary-Lougheed by-election.

Phillip van der Merwe

UCP leader Jason Kenney won the by-election with a landslide 71 percent, ahead of New Democrat Phillip van der Merwe with 16 percent and Liberal leader David Khan with 9 percent.

Recent legislation passed by the Legislative Assembly reduces the length of the confusing by-election financial reporting period which these donations fell under.

Introduced by Minister Responsible for Democratic Renewal Christina Gray, Bill 16: Election Finances and Contributions Disclosure Statutes Amendment Act shortened the by-election financial reporting period from the day the writ is issued to begin the by-election until it ends on voting day.

It is my understanding that the three-month long by-election financial reporting period is a hold-over from when the old Progressive Conservative regime increased maximum donation limits from $15,000 to $30,000 for individuals, corporations or unions during the writ period. The NDP banned corporate and union donations in 2015 and have since lowered the maximum annual donation limit to $4,000.

The top donors to political parties during the Calgary-Lougheed by-election period (November 16, 2017 to February 14, 2018):

New Democratic Party
Renee Katz – $4,000
K Shugarman – $4,000
Brune Sinneave – $4,000
Cody Sater – $4,000
Don Smith – $4,000
Allan Wood – $4,000

Liberal
Dan Hays – $2,500
Bart MacLean – $1,500
Aletha Crowe – $1,500

Reform Party of Alberta
Kathleen Thorsteinson – $4,000
Randy Thorsteinson – $4,000

Green Party
Jill Browne – $2,300
Alan Ernst – $1,000
Richard Willott – $790

Fringe separatist party renames itself, again… 

The Western Freedom Party has been renamed the Freedom Conservative Party, according to Elections Alberta. The party was originally formed as the Alberta First Party in 1999, renamed the Separation Party in 2004 and again renamed the Alberta First Party in 2013. It was renamed the Western Freedom Party in April 2018 and again renamed the Freedom Conservative Party in June 2018.

The party’s Facebook page does not yet reflect the name change, but it wants to make sure that Albertans “Don’t find yourself waking up one day to find that the World Bank or George Soros and Aga Khan own your financial institutions. You will then understand what you should have done to stop the UN, the Songbird initiative, the Boreal Initiative, Y to Y and the Leap Manifesto and take your country back from the elites!“

It is not yet known what this fringe party will be named in 2019, but stay tuned.

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July by-elections called in two UCP-friendly districts.

Photo: Laila Goodridge, Jane Stroud, Nicole Mooney, and Abigail Douglass

By-elections were called today and will be held in the provincial districts of Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and Fort McMurray-Conklin on July 12, 2018.

The by-elections are needed to replace United Conservative Party MLAs Don MacIntyre and Brian Jean. MacIntyre resigned in February 2018 after he was charged with sexual assault and sexual interference, and Jean resigned in March 2018 after he was defeated in the UCP leadership contest.

In a different context in another part of the world, July 12 is known as Orangemen’s Day, but don’t expect any kind of NDP orange parade to march through these districts on July 12. Both districts are traditionally reliably conservative voting areas that elected Wildrose Party candidates in the 2015 election. And Innisfail-Sylvan Lake has been one of the strongest conservative voting districts in Alberta over the past two decades.

Judging by the voting history of the two districts, it is very likely the UCP should win both by-elections. Anything less than landslide victories in both districts will be bad news for the UCP.

While we can expect New Democratic Party cabinet ministers and MLAs to campaign alongside their party’s candidates in both districts, it appears likely that the governing party will focus most of its by-election resources in Fort McMurray-Conklin. The results will provide an indication if Premier Rachel Notley‘s championing the Trans Mountain Pipeline has had any impact on the electorate.

The strong showing by the Liberals in the 2014 by-election in the federal Fort McMurray district proves that the Conservative party’s electoral grip on the area has been loser than other rural areas of the province, but a lot has changed in Alberta politics in the past 4 years.

I almost feel sorry for the NDP that none of their MLAs have resigned since the 2015 election. All five by-election elections that have taken place during the NDP’s first term in government have been located in unfriendly districts that elected Progressive Conservative or Wildrose MLAs in 2015.

A respectable second place finish will look good for the NDP.

The Alberta Party sat out the previous two by-elections in Calgary-Greenway in 2016 and Calgary-Lougheed in 2017, but they now are fielding candidates in these races. This is the party’s first electoral test since former PC cabinet minster and Edmonton mayor Stephen Mandel was selected as the party’s leader. How the Alberta Party fares in these by-elections could provide them with momentum ahead of next year’s expected provincial election.

A respectable second place finish will look great for the Alberta Party and help them position themselves as a viable conservative alternative to the UCP.

It is important to remember that by-elections can sometimes produce unpredictable results, and that those results that may or may not be an indicator of future general election results. But as these two districts have very long histories as conservative voting areas, it is difficult to see voters in these districts choosing any other candidate but the UCP in 2018.

Here are the candidates nominated as of June 14, 2018.

Fort McMurray-Conklin
Alberta Party – Sid Fayed [Twitter]
Green Party – Brian Deheer
Liberal – Robin Le Fevre
New Democratic Party – Jane Stroud [Facebook, Twitter]
United Conservative Party – Laila Goodridge [Facebook, Twitter]

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
Alberta Party – Abigail Douglass [Facebook, Twitter]
Green Party – Marco Reid [Facebook]
Liberal – Nicolaas Jansen
New Democratic Party – Nicole Mooney [Facebook, Twitter]
United Conservative Party – Devin Dreeshen [Facebook, Twitter]

Note: Reform Party of Alberta leader Randy Thorsteinson had initially announced plans to run in the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election. He has since withdrawn his candidacy.

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Alberta Candidate Nomination Updates: 3 NDP MLAs nominated and another UCP MLA announces retirement.

Alberta MLAs Maria Fitzpatrick, Wes Taylor, Shannon Phillips, Tany Yao, and Brian Malkinson
Alberta MLAs Maria Fitzpatrick, Wes Taylor, Shannon Phillips, Tany Yao, and Brian Malkinson

New Democratic Party MLAs nominated: Three New Democratic Party MLAs were chosen as their party’s candidates for the next election at meetings held on May 6 and May 12, 2018. MLA Maria Fitzpatrick was nominated in Lethbridge-East and MLA Christina Gray was nominated in Edmonton-Mill Woods on May 6 and MLA Brian Malkinson was nominated in Calgary-Currie at a meeting on May 12, 2018. Gray currently serves as Minister of Labour and Minister Responsible for Democratic Renewal.

The NDP have scheduled nomination meetings in Calgary-McCall on June 9, 2018 and June 11, 2018 in Lethbridge-West, where NDP MLA Shannon Phillips has already announced her plans to run for re-election.

Another UCP MLA retiring from politics: United Conservative Party MLA Wes Taylor announced in a note on his Facebook page that he would not seek re-election in 2019. Taylor is recovering from having recently undergone open heart surgery. The Battle River-Wainwright district he has represented since 2015 will be significantly redistributed in the next election into the redrawn Camrose, Drumheller-Stettler, and Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright districts.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10212010163790597&set=a.2009176870247.98091.1268483909&type=3&theater

Taylor is the fifth UCP MLA to announce he will not seek re-election in 2019 (and the sixth if you include former Wildrose leader Brian Jean, who resigned as MLA for Fort McMurray-Conklin in March 2018).

Meanwhile, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo MLA Tany Yao is running for the UCP nomination in the district he has represented since 2015.

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election: Devin Dreeshen defeated five other candidates to win the as the United Conservative Party nomination to run in the upcoming Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election. He is son of Red Deer-Mountain View Member of Parliament Earl Dreeshen.

The NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting in that district on May 25, 2018 and are expected to select Nicole Mooney as their candidate. Mooney is an English teacher at St. Joseph’s High School in Red Deer and the Communications and Political Engagement Officer with Alberta Teachers’ Association Local 80.

It appears that Reform Party of Alberta leader Randy Thorsteinson has withdrawn his name from the by-election ballot. He declared his candidacy in February 2018.

A by-election will be called in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by August 5, 2018 following the resignation of UCP MLA Don MacIntyre in February 2018 after he was charged with sexual assault and sexual interference.

Here are some other updates to the list of candidates running for party nominations across Alberta:

Airdrie-Cochrane – Ian Chitwood and Laura Talsma are seeking the UCP nomination. Chitwood is director of the Alberta Canola Producers Commission. Talsma is a Registered Nurse at the Tom Baker Cancer Centre and Bethany Cochrane Long Term Care facility in Calgary.

Brooks-Medicine Hat – Jim Black is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Black ran for the Alberta Party in the Medicine Hat district in the 2015 election, earning 5.7 percent of the vote.

Calgary-McCall – Jasraj Singh Hallan is seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-North – Jun Lin is seeking the UCP nomination. He ran in the 2017 Calgary municipal election in Ward 3, placing third with 25 percent of the vote.

Calgary-Varsity – Michael Kim is seeking the UCP nomination. Kim is the president of MKMK Education and MKMK Insurance.

Camrose – Dawn Anderson is seeking the UCP nomination. Anderson is the general manager of the Camrose Resort Casino.

Drumheller-Stettler – Mark Nikota is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Nikota was Mayor of Hanna from 2010 to 2013 and currently works as the Chief Administrative Officer of the Village of Delia. 

Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview – David Egan (not to be confused with David Eggen) is seeking the UCP nomination. He is listed as the Chief Financial Officer of the UCP association in the neighbouring Edmonton-Manning district.

Edmonton-Castle Downs – Gordon Reekie and Ed Ammar are seeking the UCP nomination. Both candidates are Real Estate agents. Ammar served as chair of the UCP interim board until the recent founding convention and was Liberal Party candidate in the neighbouring Edmonton-Decore district in the 2012 election.

Edmonton-Glenora – Immigration consultant Marjorie Newman is seeking the UCP nomination. Carla Stolte is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.

Edmonton-Manning – Jitender Sahni is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.

Edmonton-Meadows – Joel Mullan is seeking the UCP nomination.

Edmonton-North West – Ali Eltayeb is seeking the UCP nomination. He is the owner and manager of Liberty Tax franchises in Edmonton.

Edmonton-Rutherford – Aisha Rauf is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. She is an instructor and according to her website biography is waiting for her PhD Linguistics thesis defence. She was interviewed in a September 2017 episode of the Broadcast.

Edmonton-South – Dan Johnstone, known to some by his nickname “Can Man Dan,” is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Johnston was a candidate for Edmonton City Council in Ward 10 in the 2013 election, placing fourth with 4.9 percent of the vote. He more recently ran in the 2016 by-election for Edmonton City Council’s Ward 12 where he finished with 3.2 percent of the vote.

Edmonton-West Henday – Winston Leung is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.

Lesser Slave Lake – Garrett Tomlinson is seeking the UCP nomination. Tomlinson served as a councillor in Northern Sunrise County from 2013 to 2017 and country reeve from 2014 to 2017. He is listed online as a communications coordinator for the Lubicon Lake First Nation.

Livingstone-Macleod – Justin Murphy is seeking the UCP nomination. He was a candidate for High River town council in the 2017 municipal election.

Morinville-St. Albert: Joe Gosselin is seeking the UCP nomination. Gosselin is a former Morinville town councillor and was the Wildrose Party candidate in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville in the 2015 election. He originally sought the Wildrose nomination in Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock ahead of the last election but was defeated by Glenn van Dijken.

Red Deer-South – Ryan Mcdougal is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.

West Yellowhead – Martin Long is seeking the UCP nomination.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list.

Listen to the latest episode of the Daveberta Podcast to hear Dave and Ryan talk about some of the latest nomination news, including tips and advice for candidates fundraising for the next election.

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Updates: Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and Fort McMurray-Conklin by-elections. Jane Stroud expected to seek NDP nomination.

Photo: Christine Moore, Gayle Langford, Laila Goodridge and Jane Stroud.

Photo: Christine Moore, Gayle Langford, Laila Goodridge and Jane Stroud.

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake

The United Conservative Party has announced the nomination period to choose a candidate for the upcoming Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election. The deadline for candidates to enter the nomination contest is April 16 and a vote will held on April 28. The by-election must be called by August 5, 2018.

Seven candidates have now entered the race to replace UCP MLA and UCP Rural Crime Task Force member Don MacIntyre in the central Alberta district of Innisfail-Sylvan Lake. MacIntyre resigned in February 2018 after he was charged with sexual assault and sexual interference. He was first elected as a Wildrose MLA in 2015.

Along with already declared candidates Devin Dreeshen, Joan Barnes, Gayle Langford, and Mike Walsh, three additional candidates have entered the race since I last wrote about this nomination contest:

  • Christine Moore – Councillor in Red Deer County representing the area between Sylvan Lake and Red Deer city limits. She ran in the 2015 election as the Progressive Conservative candidate in Red Deer-North where she placed third with 22 percent of the vote behind New Democrat Kim Schreiner and Wildroser Buck Buchanan.
  • Joel Loh is vice-president of Regulatory Affairs & public relations at Simba Industries Transload Ltd. and affiliated with something called the Committee for Proud Alberta Fair Trade Oil (editor comment: I’m not sure they understand the definition of Fair Trade). Loh served as the president of the Canadian Alliance association in Calgary-Southwest in the early 2000s. He was disqualified from running for the Alliance nomination in Calgary-Centre ahead of the 2004 election, according to a 2003 report from the Calgary Herald.
  • Victor Sloboda is a plumbing and gas inspector with the City of Red Deer.

The only other party to nominate a candidate thus far is the Reform Party, which will be represented by its leader, Randy Thorsteinson.

Fort McMurray-Conklin

Another by-election will need to be called in the Fort McMurray-Conklin district following the resignation of UCP MLA and former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean. Jean was first elected as MLA for this district in 2015 and served as Leader of the Official Opposition Wildrose Party from 2015 until 2017, when he stepped down to join the UCP leadership contest.

The district was first created in the 2012 election from the southern and eastern half of the formerly larger Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo district. Jean was first elected in 2015 with 43 percent of the vote ahead of New Democrat Ariana Mancini with 30 percent and PC MLA Don Scott with 22 percent (Scott was elected Mayor of Wood Buffalo in October 2017).

Sources tell this blogger that Wood Buffalo Municipal Councillor Jane Stroud is planning to seek the NDP nomination to run in Fort McMurray-Conklin by-election. Since 2010, Stroud has represented Ward 4, which includes the communities of Gregorie Lakes Estates, Anzac, Janvier and Conklin. She was named a ‘Woman of Inspiration’ by Girls Inc. of Northern Alberta in 2017.

Three candidates have announced their plans to run for the UCP nomination contest in this district:

Goodridge and Meagher were considered potential candidates for the Conservative nomination in the 2014 by-election that was held to replace Jean when he resigned from federal politics in 2015.

Unlike Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, which is largely untouched by the boundary redistribution, this district will be significantly redrawn when the next election is called, with most of the district’s population becoming part of a new Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche district.

Here is a look at the vote share by party in Fort McMurray-Conklin in general elections in 2012 and 2015:

Results of the 2012 and 2015 elections in Fort McMurray-Conklin.
Results of the 2012 and 2015 elections in Fort McMurray-Conklin.
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Alberta Politics

Son of Conservative MP Earl Dreeshen running for UCP nomination in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election

Photo: Jason Kenney (centre) and Devon Dreeshen (right). (Photo source: Twitter)
Photo: Jason Kenney (centre) and Devon Dreeshen (right). (Photo source: Twitter)

Photo: Jason Kenney (centre) and Devin Dreeshen (right). (Photo source: Twitter)

Facing charges of sexual assault and sexual interference, United Conservative Party MLA Don MacIntyre resigned from his party’s caucus on Feb. 2 and then from the Legislative Assembly on Feb. 5. A by-election in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake will be called within the next six months, allowing voters in this rural central Alberta district to choose a new MLA.

Earl Dreeshen MP Red Deer Mountain View
Earl Dreeshen

Devin Dreeshen, the son of Red Deer-Mountain View Conservative MP Earl Dreeshen, is seeking the UCP nomination. Dreeshen is a director with the Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association and worked as an advisor to former federal Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz from 2009 to 2015.

According to rdnewsNow.com, Dreeshen is being endorsed by former Progressive Conservative MLA and cabinet minister Luke Ouellette, who represented the district from 2001 to 2012.

The elder Dreeshen’s federal district includes most of the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake provincial district (excluding the town of Sylvan Lake, which is located in the Red Deer-Lacombe federal district). He has represented the district since 2008.

The junior Dreeshen is not the first relative of a federal politician to recently attempt a jump into provincial politics. In 2016, Robin Martin, son-in-law of Calgary-Forest Lawn Conservative MP Deepak Obhrai, ran for the Wildrose nomination ahead of the Calgary-Greenway by-election.

Penhold town councillor Mike Walsh was already planning to challenge MacIntyre for the UCP nomination ahead of the next provincial election. He is now running for UCP nomination to stand in the by-election.

Reform Party of Alberta leader Randy Thorsteinson has also declared his intentions to run under his party’s banner in the by-election. Thorsteinson ran in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake as leader of the Alberta Alliance in the 2004 election.

Elsewhere in Alberta, three other candidates have put their names forward for UCP nominations in other districts:

Janice Sarich Edmonton-Decore
Janice Sarich

Calgary-Fish Creek
Cindy Ross is seeking the United Conservative Party nomination in Calgary-Fish Creek. Ross is a math teacher with the Calgary Catholic School District. She will likely be challenging incumbent UCP MLA Richard Gotfried, who was first elected as a PC candidate in 2015.

Calgary-Varsity
John Volponi is seeking the UCP nomination. Volponi is the general manager of ‎West Air CCM. The district is currently represented by cabinet minister and New Democratic Party MLA Stephanie McLean, who has announced her plans to seek re-election in 2019.

This district was represented by Liberal MLA Harry Chase from 2004 to 2012.

Edmonton-Decore
Former PC MLA Janice Sarich is seeking the UCP nomination in this north Edmonton district which she represented from 2008 until she was defeated by New Democrat Chris Neilsen in 2015. Sarich briefly considered running for the federal Conservative nomination in Edmonton-Griesbach until Jan. 2014.

This district is named after former Edmonton mayor and Liberal Party leader Laurence Decore. He represented the district under its former name, Edmonton-Glengarry, from 1989 to 1997.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list.

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Alberta Politics

Get ready for a by-election in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake

Following Don MacIntyre’s resignation from the United Conservative Party caucus last week, it was confirmed by media Monday that he had also resigned as the MLA for Innisfail-Sylvan Lake.

Don MacIntyre MLA
Don MacIntyre

Information about MacIntyre’s unexpected departure is currently prohibited from publication by a court ordered publication ban, though rumours circulated fairly quickly through political networks since the weekend.

UDPATE: MacIntyre has been charged with sexual interference and sexual assault.

A by-election will need to be called in the central Alberta district in the next six months, before August 5, 2018.

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake is one of the strongest conservative voting districts in Alberta, so the likelihood of a conservative candidate being elected in a by-election is very high.

When New Democratic Party candidate Patricia Norman earned 23 percent of the vote int he 2015 election, she also earned the highest vote percentage of any candidate representing a non-conservative party in the district’s history.

The district was first created in 1993 when sections of the old Rocky Mountain House district, including the town of Sylvan Lake, were merged with the old Innisfail district.

Since then, voters in the district have elected Progressive Conservative MLAs Gary Severtson (1993 to 2001) and Luke Ouellette (2001 to 2012), and Wildrose MLAs Kerry Towle (2012-2015) and MacIntyre (2015-2018). Towle was one of 11 Wildrose MLAs to cross the floor to the PCs in late 2014. She won a contested PC nomination against Red Deer County mayor Jim Wood but was defeated in the 2015 election by MacIntyre.

Kerry Towle
Kerry Towle

As noted in yesterday’s post, Penhold town councillor Mike Walsh had already announced his plans to seek the UCP nomination. Neither Towle or Wood have announced whether he will mount another bid for provincial office in this by-election.

Also announcing his intention to run in the by-election is Reform Party of Alberta leader Randy Thorsteinson, who was already planning to run in this district in the next general election. Thorsteinson earned 20 percent of the vote when he ran in this district as leader of the Alberta Alliance into the 2004 election. In the 1997 election he earned 9.3 percent of the vote when running in the neighbouring Red Deer-South district as leader of the Social Credit Party.

Here is a look at the vote share by party in general elections from 1993 to 2015:

Only minor changes to Innisfail-Sylvan Lake boundaries in 2019

With 46,717 residents, the population of the district is virtually the same as the provincial average, meaning that its boundaries will remain nearly unchanged when the province-wide redistribution of electoral boundaries take place in 2019. A minor change in the southwest corner of the district moves the area west of Garrington into the Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre district.

The Town of Sylvan Lake was one of the fastest growing communities in Canada, according to Statistics Canada. Between 2011 and 2016, the town grew by 19.9 percent from 12,362 to 14,816 residents.

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NDP should recalibrate their line of attack after Kenney’s crushing landslide in Calgary-Lougheed

Jason Kenney Calgary-Lougheed by-election

Attempts by Jason Kenney’s opponents to paint him as an extremist social conservative failed to stop the United Conservative Party leader from winning a crushing landslide victory today in Calgary-Lougheed.

Phillip van der Merwe NDP Calgary Lougheed
Phillip van der Merwe

With 22 of 22 polls reporting, Kenney had earned 7,760 votes, 71.51 percent of the total votes cast in the by-election. The UCP had a strong candidate, a strong organization and solid base of voter support in the district. And like the previous two by-elections held since the last election, this district avoided the New Democratic Party’s Orange Wave when voters re-elected Progressive Conservative Dave Rodney in 2015.

NDP candidate Phillip van der Merwe placed second with 1,822 votes, 16.79 percent of the votes cast. van der Merwe was a high quality candidate for the party in Calgary, but his chances of upsetting Kenney were always slim to none.

The NDP were spared the embarrassment of placing third, a spot that fell to newly elected Liberal Party leader David Khan, who earned 1,009 votes, 9.3 percent of the total vote. Khan’s showing was only a small improvement on the party’s showing in 2015, but it should be enough to concern the NDP that even a Liberal Party on life-support can eat into their vote share.

Despite support on the campaign trail from Premier Rachel Notley and a handful of high-profile cabinet ministers, NDP support was cut in half from the 2015 election, which is not a good sign for the governing party.

David Khan Alberta Liberal Party Leader
David Khan

The NDP should use the Calgary-Lougheed by-election as an opportunity to recalibrate their line of attack against the UCP leader. Kenney is a professional political networker unlike we have ever seen in Alberta politics, and he should not be underestimated.

While the NDP have been racking up easy wins against fumbling and confused UCP MLAs on the floor of the Legislative Assembly, Kenney has been activating a network of conservative political activists and supporters he has built over the past twenty-five years.

Two months ago, I wrote that the NDP were betting Albertans would forgive their more unpopular policies when reminded of the Kenney’s more bizarre social conservative views. On the flip-side, Kenney was betting Albertans would forgive his social conservative views when reminded of the NDP’s more unpopular policies.

The NDP painted Kenney as an extremist during the recent debate over Gay-Straight Alliances, and while his social views are probably out of step with most Albertans in 2017, that does not appear to have had an impact on him or the UCP in this by-election. Kenney’s relentless attacks on the NDP’s fiscal and economic agenda appear to be resonating in Calgary, where NDP MLAs are expected to face a very steep uphill battle in their bids for re-election.

While I am sure the NDP’s strategists in Edmonton are hard at work preparing for the next election, it may be time to rethink how they approach the UCP leader as he enters the Assembly.

This may have only been one by-election in a district already held by the UCP, but it should be a wake-up call for the NDP. The next general election is only a short 14 months away.

Results of the Calgary-Lougheed by-election (December 14, 2017)

Jason Kenney, UCP – 7,760 (71.51%)
Phillip van der Merwe, NDP – 1,822 (16.79%)
David Khan, Liberal – 1,009 (9.3%)
Lauren Thorsteinson, Reform – 137 (1.26%)
Romy Tittel, Green – 60 (0.55%)
Wayne Leslie, Independent – 42 (0.39%)
Larry Heather, Independent 22 (0.22%)

Vote in the Best of Alberta Politics 2017 Survey

Make sure to vote in the Best of Alberta Politics 2017 Survey. The first round of voting will close at 11:59pm on Friday, December 15, 2017. Voting for the top 3 results in each category will begin on Sunday, December 17, 2017. We will reveal the results of the survey on the next episode of the Daveberta Podcast, which you can listen and subscribe to on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, and wherever you find podcasts online.

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Three new right-wing candidates challenge Jason Kenney in Calgary-Lougheed by-election.

Calgary-Lougheed by-Election candidates daveberta
Calgary-Lougheed by-election candidates Jason Kenney (UCP), David Khan (Liberal), Lauren Thorsteinson (Reform), Phillip van der Merwe (NDP), Romy Tittel (Green) and Wayne Leslie (Independent/AAPPA)

Photo: Calgary-Lougheed by-election candidates Jason Kenney (UCP), David Khan (Liberal), Lauren Thorsteinson (Reform), Phillip van der Merwe (NDP), Romy Tittel (Green) and Wayne Leslie (Independent/AAPPA). Not pictured: Larry Heather (Independent)

In addition to the four candidates I mentioned in my previous post about the Calgary-Lougheed by-election – United Conservative Party candidate Jason Kenney, New Democratic Party candidate Phillip van der Merwe, Liberal candidate David Khan, and Green candidate Romy Tittel – three more candidates put their names forward to run in the December 14, 2017 vote.

Each of the three new candidates come from the much more conservative side of the political spectrum than any of Kenney’s previously announced challengers.

Wayne Leslie – Alberta Advantage Political Party Association

Wayne Leslie will be listed on the ballot as an Independent but a press release sent out today says he has the support of the unregistered Alberta Advantage Political Party Association, a group formed by supporters of the former Wildrose Party who did not support the merger with the Progressive Conservative Party. Leslie serves as the provincial director for Calgary on the AAPPA board and, according to the press release, he is a former Calgary Police officer who believes the “unity vote” process to merge the Wildrose and PC parties was “plain corruption.”

The AAPPA’s interim leader is Gil Poitras, who is listed by Elections Alberta as having served as Chief Financial Officer for the Alberta Party in 2013 and 2014 and as the president of the Alberta Party association in Leduc-Beaumont in 2015. The AAPPA’s president is David Inscho, the former president of the Wildrose association in Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills.

Lauren Thorsteinson – Reform Party of Alberta

Lauren Thorsteinson of Red Deer will run under the Reform Party of Alberta banner. The party was formed in 2014 and officially registered with Elections Alberta in 2016 by leader Randy Thorsteinson, Lauren’s father. The elder Thorsteinson led the Social Credit Party through a brief revival in the 1997 election and later formed and led the Alberta Alliance Party, which later merged with the Wildrose Party to become the Wildrose Alliance Party, when then eventually merged with the PC Party to become the United Conservative Party.

Larry Heather – Independent

Larry Heather is a social conservative activist and perennial election candidate who has run in at least twenty school board, municipal, provincial and federal elections since 1984. Most recently he ran in Calgary’s mayoral election where he earned 848 votes (0.2 percent of the vote). In 2016, he ran as an Independent candidate in the Calgary-Greenway by-election where he earned 106 votes (1.28 percent of the vote).

Notley Q&A on CBC

Premier Rachel Notley will be taking questions live on air on CBC Radio’s Edmonton AM program on Tuesday, November 28, 2017 from 8:00am to 9:00am. Take advantage of your chance to engage with our premier and send in your questions.

Daveberta Podcast

Thanks to everyone who has subscribed and listened to the latest episode of the Daveberta Podcast. If you haven’t listened to it yet, download the podcast and let us know what you think. If you like what you hear, you can help us by subscribing to the podcast, submitting a review, sharing with your friends, and tuning in again next time (we will be releasing the next episode in December).

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Social Credit Party renamed the Alberta Pro-Life Political Association

Social Credit introduced recall laws in Alberta in 1936 and repealed them in 1937 when Premier William Aberhart faced a recall challenge in his own riding.
Social Credit introduced recall laws in Alberta in 1936 and repealed them in 1937 when Premier William Aberhart faced a recall challenge in his own riding.

The Alberta Social Credit Party is no more. Taken over by a group of anti-abortion activists in 2016, the party has officially changed its name to the Alberta Pro-Life Political Association. According to Elections Alberta, the name change became official on May 3, 2017.

While the Social Credit Party has sat on the conservative fringe of Alberta politics for much of the past four decades, the party fundamentally reshaped the politics of our province when it formed government from 1935 to 1971.

Inspired by the Social Credit teachings of British Major CH Douglas, William Aberhart‘s Social Credit Party swept the 1935 Alberta election in a populist wave, going from zero to 56 seats during the height of the Great Depression.

Upon learning of the election victory in 1935, the Social Credit Greenshirts in London were reported to have marched around the Bank of England Building holding torches and blowing their trumpets – no doubt inspired by the Battle of Jericho. (this was a period in western history when it was not uncommon for political parties to have official uniforms).

During its first decade in government, Aberhart’s radical administration tried to print its own currency, legislate control over the media, nationalize the banking system and ban alcohol sales. The Social Credit Party also introduced the province’s short-lived MLA recall law and a provincial sales tax.

In response to what they claimed to be a “world plot” by “socialists and world finance” (which is coded language for Jewish) the Alberta government-funded Social Credit Board proposed in 1947 that the secret ballot and political parties be abolished. “The obvious remedy for the evils of party politics is the abolition of political parties dominated at the top as we know them today,” the report argued.

Ernest Manning abolished the Social Credit Board in 1948.

It really was a bizarre time in Alberta politics.

Under Manning’s leadership from 1943 to 1968, the Social Credit Party evolved into a generic conservative governing party, albeit with a social conservative bent.

Perhaps the most important lasting legacy of the Social Credit government today is the continued existence of the Alberta Treasury Branches, which was founded in 1938 after the federal government thwarted attempts by Aberhart to impose government control over banks operating in Alberta.

The party was defeated in 1971 and last elected an MLA to the Legislature in 1979. Leader Randy Thorsteinson, led the party to win 6.8 percent of the vote in the 1997 election and later formed the Alberta Alliance Party (which later became the Wildrose Party). He is now the leader of the Reform Party of Alberta.

The Social Credit Party ran six candidates in the 2015 election, earning a total 832 votes.

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Anti-Abortion activists stage an “invalid takeover” of Alberta’s Social Credit Party

Jeremy Fraser Social Credit Party Alberta Leader
Jeremy Fraser

It has been a long time since Alberta’s Social Credit Party played a central role in mainstream politics in our province. This could be why little attention was paid to the Socred’s annual general meeting in January 2016, where it appears that a group of anti-abortion activists staged a takeover the party leadership.

Len Skowronski, who served as leader from 2007 until the leadership change at the AGM, described it as an “invalid takeover” executed by a group of pro-lifers. “We true Socreds hope to rectify the situation at the next AGM,” Mr. Skowronski wrote in an email to this blogger.

According to Elections Alberta documents, Jeremy Fraser is now the party leader. He previously served as the party’s first vice-president and the party’s candidate in Highwood in the 2015 election, where he earned 187 votes.

Mr. Fraser posted the following message on his Facebook page days before the AGM:

Dear Pro-Life Social Credit Party Members and Supporters,

I want to thank you for all your support of the Social Credit Party over the past year! We have made great progress in building the Pro-Life political movement in Alberta. From recruiting many emerging Pro-Life leaders who have gained valuable knowledge and skills in political leadership on our provincial board to activating lifelong Pro-Life supporters at the grassroots level, helping them engage effectively in our last provincial election.

It hasn’t always been easy, but we have made great strides in promoting Pro-Life public policy and working for a Culture of Life! Thank you!

This Saturday is our Party’s Annual General Meeting. This is a very important opportunity to forward the Pro-Life cause politically in Alberta!

We will be voting to elect a strong team of Pro-Life leaders to the Provincial Executive and Board of Directors. Registration will take place from 1:00-1:30 PM at the Capitol Hill Community Hall, 1531 21 Ave NW, Calgary from 1-4. You can register at the door, $10/person 14yrs or older. Families are welcome to bring their younger children as there will be plenty of room.

This year’s AGM will be critical. We will be voting on the current leadership of the party which could result in the election of a new Leader of the Alberta Social Credit Party. It is vital that we ensure that we vote for a Leader who stands strongly for Pro-Life principles and shares our focus on promoting them openly.

A Social Credit advertisement from Alberta's 1944 election.
A Social Credit advertisement from Alberta’s 1944 election.

Speaking to the High River Times in April 2015, Mr. Fraser was quoted as saying “I will emphasize the Pro-Life values of Albertans, making constituents and other candidates aware of the issues surrounding abortion and how they are directly relevant to provincial policy… We should de-fund abortion and fund the life affirming alternatives of crisis pregnancy support, parental support, and adoption.”

It just so happens that “Eliminate the funding of abortions” is now prominently included in the first section of the Social Credit Party 2019 election platform, which has been published on the party website.

Mr. Fraser was a volunteer for the publicity campaign to recall Highwood MLA Danielle Smith after the former Wildrose leader crossed the floor to the PCs in December 2014. Also volunteering for that campaign were conservative activists Amanda Achtman and Caitlyn Madlener, who are now contributors to Ezra Levant‘s Rebel Media website (Ms. Madlener stood behind Jason Kenney as he launched his campaign for the Progressive Conservative leadership).

Ironically for Mr. Fraser, Alberta’s only recall legislation was repealed by the Social Credit government in 1936.

The Social Credit Party formed government in Alberta from 1935 to 1971. The party last elected an MLA to the Legislature in 1979. Former Social Credit Party leader Randy Thorsteinson, who led the party to win 6.8 percent of the vote in the 1997 election and later formed the Alberta Alliance Party (now known as the Wildrose Party) recently became the leader of the newly formed Reform Party of Alberta.

A message sent to Mr. Fraser was not responded to at the time this post was published.

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A look at who is backing Jason Kenney’s bid for the PC Party leadership

Former Reform Party leader Preston Manning and Jason Kenney.
Jason Kenney with former Reform Party leader Preston Manning, a key player in the last attempt to unite-the-right in Alberta.

Conservative Member of Parliament Jason Kenney is expected to announce his candidacy for the leader of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta tomorrow, July 6, in Calgary, deliver a speech in Grande Prairie that evening and then travel to Edmonton on July 7 for another speech. He was widely expected to run for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada and only just recently began positioning himself as candidate to unite Alberta’s conservative partisans under one banner.

He would be the first candidate to officially enter the PC leadership contest, which is scheduled to be held on March 18, 2017.

  • As I explained in a column last month, Mr. Kenney could have a rough landing in Alberta politics.
  • A skilled organizer with more than 25 years of experience as a taxpayers federation lobbyist and Ottawa politician, Mr. Kenney should not be underestimated by his opponents.
  • Mr. Kenney follows in the footsteps of his former colleague, Jim Prentice, who led the PC Party from 2014 until its defeat by Rachel Notley’s New Democratic Party in May 2015. That election ended forty-four uninterrupted years of PC majority governments in Alberta.
  • Mr. Kenney recently purchased a membership in the PC Party, despite being widely seen as a supporter and ideological ally of the Official Opposition Wildrose Party, currently led by former MP Brian Jean.
  • Perhaps anticipating a threat of takeover, the PC Party recently abandoned its one-member one-vote system of choosing its leader in favour of a closed-delegate system, which forces candidates to campaign and organize in all 87 constituencies across the province.
  • Mr. Kenney is not assured an easy victory in the PC leadership race. I spoke with CTV about some of the potential candidates who also might enter the race, including former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk, who Mr. Kenney once described as an “asshole,” Vermilion-Lloydminster MLA Richard Starke, and Calgary-North West MLA Sandra Jansen, who said she would consider leaving the PC Party if Mr. Kenney became the leader. Edmonton City Councillor Michael Oshry is also considering entering the contest and former MLA Doug Griffiths is rumoured to be interested.

It is unclear whether Mr. Kenney would resign as the MP for Calgary-Midnapore immediately or if he would keep one foot in federal politics until he secures a leadership position in a provincial party. Under provincial elections law, he does not need to resign his federal seat until he is a registered candidate in a provincial election.

Because of his track-record as a social conservative and Wildrose supporter, Mr. Kenney might not find a great deal of support among existing PC Party members, including the 1,001 who attended the party’s annual general meeting earlier this year. But two unite-the-right groups could provide him with a base with which to organize his PC leadership bid.

Mr. Kenney appears to have the support of two unite-the-right groups. The Alberta Can’t Wait group, backed by former Reform Party stalwarts Preston Manning and Cliff Fryers, lobbyist Hal Danchilla and 1980s Tory cabinet minister Rick Orman, and the Alberta Prosperity Fund, backed by former right-wing talk radio host Dave Rutherford, former MLAs Heather Forsyth and Shiraz Shariff, and former PC Party president Jim McCormick. The Alberta Prosperity Fund issued a formal endorsement of Mr. Kenney on July 5, 2016.

The Alberta Can’t Wait group was reportedly planning to hijack the Alberta Party later this summer and Prosperity Fund founder and director Barry McNamar, formerly of the Fraser Institute and Manning Centre, is reportedly suing the Wildrose Party.

The two groups are part of a burgeoning cottage industry of anti-NDP groups, including the infamous and less polished Kudatah, that have popped up since the May 2015 election. Both the Wildrose and PC Parties have publicly rejected their overtures.

Alberta’s elections laws bar political parties from merging financial assets, meaning any actual merger between conservative parties is highly unlikely. Making things more complicated was the formation of a sixth conservative party last month – the Reform Party of Alberta. It may be a more likely scenario that a PC Party led by Mr. Kenney would apply to Elections Alberta to change its name to the Conservative Party of Alberta and urge Wildrose MLAs to run under its banner in the 2019 general election.

Cast into the opposition for the first time in 44 years, Conservatives in Alberta will need to define what their vision is for the future of our province. After decades of fiscal mismanagement, much of Alberta’s current economic situation is a result of decisions made by PC Party governments. Conservatives cannot simply expect that Albertans will forgive, forget and restore the natural governing party in 2019. Those days are gone.

Aside from his politically charged rhetoric about “free enterprise” and the bogeyman ‘bohemian Marxism‘ it remains completely unclear what Mr. Kenney’s vision for Alberta would be, besides just returning Conservatives to power. I expect we will find out more in the next few days.

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