As of tonight, the New Democratic Party is the only party with a full slate of 87 candidates. The Alberta Party has 86 candidates in place, with Lethbridge-East left as the only vacant district. And the United Conservative Party nominated Leila Houle as its candidate in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood tonight and will hold its two final nomination contests in Edmonton-Ellerslie and Edmonton-Mill Woods this weekend.
Attempts by Jason Kenney’s opponents to paint him as an extremist social conservative failed to stop the United Conservative Party leader from winning a crushing landslide victory today in Calgary-Lougheed.
With 22 of 22 polls reporting, Kenney had earned 7,760 votes, 71.51 percent of the total votes cast in the by-election. The UCP had a strong candidate, a strong organization and solid base of voter support in the district. And like the previous two by-elections held since the last election, this district avoided the New Democratic Party’s Orange Wave when voters re-elected Progressive Conservative Dave Rodney in 2015.
NDP candidate Phillip van der Merwe placed second with 1,822 votes, 16.79 percent of the votes cast. van der Merwe was a high quality candidate for the party in Calgary, but his chances of upsetting Kenney were always slim to none.
The NDP were spared the embarrassment of placing third, a spot that fell to newly elected Liberal Party leader David Khan, who earned 1,009 votes, 9.3 percent of the total vote. Khan’s showing was only a small improvement on the party’s showing in 2015, but it should be enough to concern the NDP that even a Liberal Party on life-support can eat into their vote share.
Despite support on the campaign trail from Premier Rachel Notley and a handful of high-profile cabinet ministers, NDP support was cut in half from the 2015 election, which is not a good sign for the governing party.
The NDP should use the Calgary-Lougheed by-election as an opportunity to recalibrate their line of attack against the UCP leader. Kenney is a professional political networker unlike we have ever seen in Alberta politics, and he should not be underestimated.
While the NDP have been racking upeasy winsagainst fumbling and confused UCP MLAs on the floor of the Legislative Assembly, Kenney has been activating a network of conservative political activists and supporters he has built over the past twenty-five years.
Two months ago, I wrote that the NDP were betting Albertans would forgive their more unpopular policies when reminded of the Kenney’s more bizarre social conservative views. On the flip-side, Kenney was betting Albertans would forgive his social conservative views when reminded of the NDP’s more unpopular policies.
While I am sure the NDP’s strategists in Edmonton are hard at work preparing for the next election, it may be time to rethink how they approach the UCP leader as he enters the Assembly.
This may have only been one by-election in a district already held by the UCP, but it should be a wake-up call for the NDP. The next general election is only a short 14 months away.
Results of the Calgary-Lougheed by-election (December 14, 2017)
Jason Kenney, UCP – 7,760 (71.51%) Phillip van der Merwe, NDP – 1,822 (16.79%) David Khan, Liberal – 1,009 (9.3%) Lauren Thorsteinson, Reform – 137 (1.26%) Romy Tittel, Green – 60 (0.55%) Wayne Leslie, Independent – 42 (0.39%) Larry Heather, Independent 22 (0.22%)
Vote in the Best of Alberta Politics 2017 Survey
Make sure to vote in the Best of Alberta Politics 2017 Survey. The first round of voting will close at 11:59pm on Friday, December 15, 2017. Voting for the top 3 results in each category will begin on Sunday, December 17, 2017. We will reveal the results of the survey on the next episode of the Daveberta Podcast, which you can listen and subscribe to on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, and wherever you find podcasts online.
Photo: Calgary-Lougheed by-election candidates Jason Kenney (UCP), David Khan (Liberal), Lauren Thorsteinson (Reform), Phillip van der Merwe (NDP), Romy Tittel (Green) and Wayne Leslie (Independent/AAPPA). Not pictured: Larry Heather (Independent)
The AAPPA’s interim leader is Gil Poitras, who is listed by Elections Alberta as having served as Chief Financial Officer for the Alberta Party in 2013 and 2014 and as the president of the Alberta Party association in Leduc-Beaumont in 2015. The AAPPA’s president is David Inscho, the former president of the Wildrose association in Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills.
Larry Heather is a social conservative activist and perennial election candidate who has run in at least twenty school board, municipal, provincial and federal elections since 1984. Most recently he ran in Calgary’s mayoral election where he earned 848 votes (0.2 percent of the vote). In 2016, he ran as an Independent candidate in the Calgary-Greenway by-election where he earned 106 votes (1.28 percent of the vote).
Notley Q&A on CBC
Premier Rachel Notley will be taking questions live on air on CBC Radio’s Edmonton AM program on Tuesday, November 28, 2017 from 8:00am to 9:00am. Take advantage of your chance to engage with our premier and send in your questions.
Thanks to everyone who has subscribed and listened to the latest episode of the Daveberta Podcast. If you haven’t listened to it yet, download the podcast and let us know what you think. If you like what you hear, you can help us by subscribing to the podcast, submitting a review, sharing with your friends, and tuning in again next time (we will be releasing the next episode in December).