Alberta NDP candidate Rob Miyashiro won the provincial by-election in Lethbridge-West.
Unofficial results from Elections Alberta:
With the impending electoral defeat of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau growing more likely by the day, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has embarked on her own Team Alberta diplomatic charm offensive in the United States.
Just days after American President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods imported into his country, Smith jetted off to the Western Governors conference in Las Vegas. Smith held a handful of one-on-one meetings with Republican and Democratic governors as part of her pitch to US law-makers to exclude Canadian oil and gas from Trump’s tariff war.
“I am a fan of our biggest trading partner” Smith’s told a Fox News host when she was asked on-air if she was a fan of Trump. In response to Trump’s now frequently repeated threats that Canada should become America’s 51st state if Canadians don’t like the tariffs, Smith said he was “hilarious.”
Nearly five months after Alberta NDP MLA Shannon Phillips resigned her seat in the Legislature, a by-election has been called in Lethbridge-West and it’s happening on December 18.
For the past five years, this urban riding located in southwest Alberta has been an electoral anomaly: a lone orange island surrounded by a sea of blue. The riding was one of two won by the NDP in 2023 that was outside of the immediate Edmonton and Calgary areas.
Alberta politics is unpredictable and sometimes it’s best to expect the unexpected
The main event of Alberta’s political season is nearly upon us. No, I’m not talking about the return of the Legislature or the impending by-election in Lethbridge-West. I’m talking about the United Conservative Party’s Annual General Meeting and leadership review that is happening this weekend in Red Deer.
With more than 6,000 people expected to attend, it will likely be the biggest single political convention in Alberta’s history. And it is going to be a circus.
The next step in the Alberta NDP’s transformation from Rachel Notley’s NDP to Naheed Nenshi’s NDP takes place this weekend in Calgary.
NDP members from across Alberta will gather in the province’s largest city this weekend for the party’s first meeting of its Provincial Council since Nenshi won his landslide victory in the race to replace Notley.
Nenshi’s 84% win with 62,746 votes means there is no doubt who the vast majority of the party’s membership wanted as leader. But meaningfully connecting with the people in the room this weekend will be Nenshi’s next big step.
Expect a charm offensive.
Another way for politicians to control the message and avoid facing tough questions
In the span of one week, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith released two pre-recorded video messages announcing major changes to the United Conservative Party government’s political agenda.
The first was an 8-minute broadcast online and on television featuring Smith announcing new funding for school construction and taking political jabs at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over the federal government’s immigration policies.
A second 3-minute video featured the Premier announcing the rumoured amendments to the Alberta Bill of Rights she argued would enshrine protections for people who refuse get vaccinated and people who own firearms and property.
It’s hard to imagine the old PC Party getting bogged down by this debate
If I had walked into the Alberta Legislature ten years ago and told an MLA, staffer, or journalist that in 2024 the province’s political landscape would be a competitive two-party system, I probably would have been laughed out of the Rotunda. They might have even alerted a security guard if I’d been so out of my mind to predict that the New Democratic Party would be competing with the conservatives to form Alberta’s government.
Until that point ten years ago, only twice in the Progressive Conservative Party’s four decades of uninterrupted majority governments had the dynasty been seriously challenged in an election. The PC Party was unquestionably Alberta’s Natural Governing Party.
Until last weekend, 2 of Alberta’s 6 seats in the Canadian Senate sat empty for years
Did you know that until recently, two of Alberta’s six seats in the Canadian Senate had been vacant for years?
You’re not alone if you didn’t know before last weekend. Most Albertans probably didn’t know.
You’re also not alone if you didn’t even hear about the appointments, because it was out of the news-cycle in about 24 hours.
Despite playing a big role in how federal laws are shaped in our country, the profile of Canada’s Senate, a place of sober second thought, usually flies far under the radar of most Canadians.
With the end of summer fast approaching and the Labour Day long-weekend just days away, I’ve opened up the mailbag to answer a few Alberta politics questions about health care privatization, early election speculation, and small nuclear reactors sent in by Daveberta subscribers. Read it all on the Daveberta Substack.
The stakes are high for Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi in the upcoming Lethbridge-West by-election. This will be the new NDP leader’s first electoral test since his landslide victory in June and, because of that, it’s also a race that Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party really want to win.
The by-election to choose who will succeed former three-term NDP MLA Shannon Phillips’ hasn’t been called yet but the date of the vote will need to be set by January 1, 2025. The NDP and UCP have both started their nomination process to select candidates.
I usually share Daveberta newsletters later in the week, but with MLA Shannon Phillips announcing her resignation yesterday, I wanted to share my thoughts earlier this week. Enjoy!
Shannon Phillips is smart as a whip and tough as nails but after nine years in the Alberta Legislature, she is stepping down as the NDP MLA for Lethbridge-West.
Rachel Notley has been one of the Alberta NDP’s greatest assets since she took up the reins of the party in 2014. Under Notley’s leadership, the NDP went from a small and scrappy opposition party to form government in 2015 and then solidify itself as a viable political force and the singular opposition to the United Conservative Party after 2019.
And after 9 years as the helm of the Alberta NDP she helped transform, it’s likely she will not lead them into the 2027 election.
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When I worked for the Alberta Liberal Party back in the 2000s, we had an inside joke that the Liberals could run Jesus Christ as a candidate in Wainwright and still lose. It was funny because it was probably true (the last time voters in Wainwright elected a Liberal MLA was in 1909) and was a reflection of how cynical we were that the party had any chance of actually winning any seats in rural Alberta.
I imagine more than a few Alberta NDP supporters felt the same when the results of the 2023 election started rolling in on May 29, 2023. Despite making big gains in Calgary and winning 38 seats province-wide, the party’s hopes of forming government were dashed at the city limits.
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More confusing messaging about the Alberta Pension Plan
As Alberta’s United Conservative Party government continues its big $7 million advertising push to convince Albertans to leave the Canada Pension Plan and start a separate Alberta Pension Plan, Finance Minister Nate Horner told CTV’s Vassy Kapelos that the province’s decision on whether or not to hold a referendum on leaving the CPP will be based on a “high level feeling from many sources.”
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“More Alberta, less Ottawa”
Alberta’s United Conservative Party government opened up a new front in its fight for more provincial autonomy with a proposal to withdraw Alberta workers from the Canada Pension Plan and create an Alberta Pension Plan.
Premier Danielle Smith joined Finance Minister Nate Horner and pension engagement panel chairperson and former finance minister Jim Dinning on stage to announce a sunshine and apple pie forecast for a new Alberta Pension Plan.
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