Tag: Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission

Alberta is on a collision course with a dangerous political storm

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 25, 2026

We are now 18 months away from the next scheduled provincial election in October 2027 and we don’t know what the electoral map is going to look like (we’ll find out by November 2026). We don’t even know what our political environment might resemble by that time.

Albertans are being forced on a collision course with a political storm unlike anything anyone who’s involved in provincial politics has seen in their lifetimes.

A referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada is expected to happen in October 2026 along with at least 9 questions proposed by Premier Smith ranging from abolishing the Senate to limiting access immigrants have to health care and education (Smith is expected to make an announcement about these on April 23). And there might even be a question about banning coal mining in the Eastern Slopes of the Rocky Mountains.

Some of these incredibly divisive referendum questions have the potential to dramatically reshape and divide communities and politics in Alberta in ways we haven’t seen in generations — especially with the threat of foreign interference and misinformation promoting Alberta becoming the 51st State.

Alberta NDP’s path to victory still goes through Calgary

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 25, 2026

Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley and former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi (source: Rachel Notley / Twitter)

Alberta NDP supporters are fond of saying their party would have won enough seats to form government if a few thousand votes had shifted their way in Calgary on May 29, 2023.

Putting aside that’s basically the same as saying “we would have won if more people voted for us,” it does reinforce just how big of a role that city’s voters played in the last provincial election — and how much they will matter again when Albertans go to the polls in 2027.

The last Alberta election was pretty darn close

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 24, 2026

UCP leader Danielle Smith on election night in Calgary (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)

Alberta has a well-earned reputation as the land of historically large majority governments because every election since 1905 has resulted in a majority government — some of them huge. But the results of the last provincial election were pretty darn close in comparison.

The province-wide vote put Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party ahead of Rachel Notley’s NDP by 8 points, but that margin is deceiving. The UCP’s province-wide lead was largely a result of the party’s huge margins of victory in rural and small city ridings outside of Calgary and Edmonton. The vote results in that election’s twenty closest races — fifteen which were located in Calgary — were much, much closer.

Worried about gerrymandering? Pay attention to the closest races from Alberta’s 2023 election

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 23, 2026

A map of the ridings with the closest races won by the UCP (blue) and NDP (orange) in the 2023 Alberta provincial election (map tool: CanadianPolling.ca)

The United Conservative Party government has moved to take greater control of how the electoral boundaries for Alberta’s next provincial election will be drawn. Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP government voted to toss out of majority report of the bipartisan Electoral Boundaries Commission this week and create a new process where an advisory panel reporting to an MLA committee will redraw Alberta’s new electoral map.

Alberta Politics

Five questions about the MLA committee drawing Alberta’s new electoral boundaries

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 19, 2026

1. Why is the government doing this?

The only reason for the UCP government to introduce this is that UCP MLAs didn’t like what the majority of the commissioners, including the government-appointed chairperson, recommended in the final report.

Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP caucus is dominated by rural MLAs and sweeping the ridings outside of Calgary and Edmonton is key to the UCP winning re-election in 2027. It’s very likely that UCP MLAs did not like the prospect of having to challenge each other for their party’s nominations in newly redrawn rural ridings ahead of the next election — a situation that would cause tension in any caucus. The addition of competitive urban seats in cities where the population has grown the fastest also risks slimming the UCP’s majority.

I’m willing to bet that’s the main reason why the UCP government has intervened to send the map back to the drawing board.

Back to the drawing board! UCP scrapping Alberta boundaries commission and appointing MLA committee to draw new electoral map

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 18, 2026

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)

Every day is a new round of chaos in Alberta politics

The United Conservative Party government surprised the opposition, political watchers, and probably a few of their own MLAs with plans to introduce a motion in the Legislature to scrap the final report of the bipartisan Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission and replace it with an MLA committee and advisory panel tasked with redrawing riding boundaries ahead of the next provincial election.

The motion placed on the Order Paper by UCP Government House Leader Joseph Schow would create a Special Select Committee on Electoral Boundaries, composed of Leduc-Beaumont UCP MLA Brandon Lunty as chairperson and 3 UCP MLAs and 2 NDP MLAs. The MLA committee would oversee a new advisory panel that would include a government-appointed chairperson, two UCP-appointees and two NDP-appointees.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Alberta’s new electoral map will be a fight

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 3, 2026

Divided boundaries commission gives us a level-headed majority report and drastically different minority report

The final report of the bi-partisan Electoral Boundaries Commission usually settles where the lines are drawn on Alberta’s electoral map, but like most decisions in Alberta politics these days — an injection of polarization and partisanship threatens to tear apart a system that has worked pretty well for the past thirty years.

Alberta is getting a new electoral map for the next provincial election that increases the total number of ridings from 87 to 89 but what that map looks like will depend on what MLAs decide to do when the United Conservative Party government introduces the next version of the Electoral Divisions Act into the Legislature.

With duelling maps included in the final report, it’s unclear what the government’s bill will include and how active MLAs will be in redrawing the map themselves.

A fairly level-headed majority report was supported by government-appointed chair Dallas K. Miller (a retired Judge of the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta) and NDP-appointed commissioners Greg Clark (former Alberta Party MLA for Calgary-Elbow and former UCP-appointed chair of the Alberta Balancing Pool) and Susan Samson (former mayor of the Town of Sylvan Lake).

A drastically different and much more controversial minority report was supported by UCP-appointed commissioners John Evans (a Lethbridge-based lawyer) and Julian Martin (a Professor Emeritus from the University of Alberta and former federal Conservative government senior staffer).

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Airdrie-East, Airdrie-West, Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission, Alberta Electoral Map, Alberta NDP, Alberta Politics Substack, Banff-Kananaskis, Barrhead-Westlock-Athabasca, Calgary-East, Calgary-Elbow, Calgary-Falconridge-Conrich, Calgary-Glenmore-Tsuut’ina, Calgary-West-Elbow Valley, Canada Election Substack, Canmore-Banff, Cardston-Taber, Carston-Siksika, Central Peace-Notley, Cochrane-Springbank, Dallas Miller, Danielle Smith, Daveberta Substack, Edmonton-Beaumont, Edmonton-Enoch, Edmonton-Glenora-Riverview, Edmonton-Riverview, Edmonton-Strathcona, Electoral Boundaries Commission Act, Gerrymandering in Alberta Politics, Greg Clark, High River-Vulcan-Siksika, John Evans, Julian Martin, Kyle Hutton, Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland, Lacombe-Clearwater, Lacombe-Ponoka, Lesser Slave Lake, Lethbridge-East, Lethbridge-West, Mountain View-Kneehill, Nathan Neudorf, Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, Red Deer-North, Red Deer-South, Scott Sinclair, Spruce Grove, St. Albert-Sturgeon, Susan Samson, United Conservative Party, West Yellowhead, Wetaskiwin-Ponoka-Maskwacis

Alberta Politics

NDP MLAs Sarah Hoffman and Samir Kayande first candidates nominated for 2027 election

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date March 6, 2026

MLA Sarah Hoffman (left) and MLA David Eggen at the Edmonton-Glenora NDP nomination meeting on March 3, 2026. Hoffman was acclaimed for the nomination. (source: Sarah Hoffman / Facebook)

Candidate nomination season kicks off in Alberta

It could be 18 months before Albertans line up to mark their ballots in the next provincial election but that isn’t stopping Alberta’s main opposition party from starting to nominate candidates ahead of the vote.

The Alberta NDP started nominating candidates this week, far ahead of the scheduled October 2027 vote. A much earlier election was rumoured but appears increasingly unlikely as we move further into 2026.

NDP MLA Sarah Hoffman became the first candidate nominated ahead of the next election when she was acclaimed in Edmonton-Glenora on March 3. Hoffman has represented the riding since 2015 and served as Deputy Premier and Minister of Health in the NDP government led by Premier Rachel Notley from 2015 to 2019.

Tags A Better Calgary Party, Alberta Budget 2026, Alberta Election Candidate Nominations, Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission, Alberta Federation of Labour, Alberta NDP, Alberta Politics Substack, Anthony Ascue, Avi Lewis, Banff-Kananaskis, Calgary-Confederation, Calgary-Edgemont, Calgary-Elbow, Calgary-Foothills, Calgary-Shaw, Calgary-Shaw by-election, Calgary-Varsity, Canada Election Substack, Canadian Strategy Group, Corey Hogan, Court Ellingson, Craig Chandler, Dan Arnold, Danielle Smith, Daveberta Substack, Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview, Edmonton-Glenora, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood, Edmonton-South, Edmonton-South West, Elan Harper, Federal NDP leadership race 2026, Gil McGowan, Green Party of Alberta, Heather McPherson, James Anderson, Janis Irwin, Jason Copping, Jeremy Nixon, Jeromy Farkas, Julia Hayter, Justin Brattinga, Kelly Hooper, Lizette Tejada, Mike Derry, Naheed Nenshi, Nate Horner, Nathan Ip, Peggy Wright, Rebecca Schulz, Rhiannon Hoyle, Rob Ashton, Samir Kayande, Sarah Elmeligi, Sarah Hoffman, Tanille Johnston, Tony McQuail, United Conservative Party

Alberta Politics

Rakhi Pancholi takes the lead – NDP deputy leader takes centre stage, again, in response to Danielle Smith’s nine referendum questions

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date February 24, 2026

Edmonton-Whitemud NDP MLA Rakhi Pancholi (source: Alberta NDP Opposition / YouTube)

“Cut the bullshit. Call the election.”

Those were the words Alberta NDP deputy leader Rakhi Pancholi directed at Danielle Smith the morning after the Premier took to the television waves to blame immigration for the provincial government’s budget problems and announce a suite of nine referendum questions to be put to Albertans on October 19.

The 38-MLA NDP opposition has struggled to gain traction and define itself since former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi replaced former premier Rachel Notley as leader a year and a half ago, but those six words from Pancholi last Friday cut through the noise and were a blunt reminder that she is one of the party’s most effective voices.

Will Danielle Smith call an early election in Alberta?

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date January 22, 2026

Minister of Hospital and Surgical Health Services Matt Jones and Premier Danielle Smith at a government press conference in December 2025 (source: Alberta Newsroom / Flickr)

After months of speculation, Premier Danielle Smith said during her 2025 year-end interviews that she isn’t planning to call an early election in 2026, but anyone who pays attention to politics knows: circumstances change.

The next provincial general election is scheduled to happen in October 2027 but there continues to be wide speculation that an early election could be called — and there are plenty of reasons to believe why.

Smith’s UCP remains ahead of Naheed Nenshi’s Alberta NDP in the polls and the governing party continues to raise large amounts of donations. And there is little doubt that Smith remains one of the most effective and shrewd political communicators in Alberta and in Canada’s conservative movement.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Abi Johnson, Abigail Johnson, Alberta Election 2026, Alberta Election 2027, Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission, Alberta Electoral Map, Alberta Health Services, Alberta NDP, Alberta Politics Substack, Alberta Prosperity Project, Alberta Separation Referendum, Alberta Separatism, Athana Mentzelopoulos, Avi Lewis, Battle River-Crowfoot, Ben Shapiro, Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, Calgary-Bow, Calgary-Bow MLA Recall Campaign, Calgary-Shaw, Calgary-Shaw by-election, Canada as the 51st State, Canada Election Substack, Coal Mining, Coal Mining Referendum, Corb Lund, Danielle Smith, Daveberta Substack, Dawn Farrell, Demetrios Nicolaides, Dodgy Contracts Scandal, Donald Trump, Doug Wylie, Edmonton Riverbend by-election, Edmonton-Riverbend, Edmonton-Strathcona, Federal NDP leadership race 2026, Forever Canadian, Grant Hunter, Greenland, Heather McPherson, Major Projects Office, Mark Carney, Matt Jeneroux, Matt Jones, Mickey Amery, Minister of Hospital and Surgical Health Services, Mitch Sylvestre, MLA Recall in Alberta, Naheed Nenshi, Nathan Cooper, Nicholas Maduro, Pierre Poilievre, Rebecca Schulz, Recall Act, Rob Ashton, Taber-Warner, Tanille Johnston, Thomas Lukaszuk, Tony McQuail, United Conservative Party

Alberta Politics

Alberta is getting a new map for the next provincial election

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date December 11, 2025

Alberta is getting a new electoral map and the commissioners tasked with the job of redrawing the province’s political boundaries released their interim report in October.

The Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission is now collecting input about the interim map before the commissioners go back to the drawing board to sketch out their final report, which will be submitted to Speaker Ric McIver by March 28, 2026.

The new map would be used for the next provincial election if it is approved by the Legislature and if a provincial election isn’t called next spring, as some political watchers suspect could happen.

Alberta Politics

All about Alberta politics in Fall 2025

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date September 17, 2025

Alberta’s Legislature Building through the view of a broken glass panel in summer 2025 (credit: Dave Cournoyer)

Danielle Smith and Naheed Nenshi will spar in the Legislature but the most interesting politics will be on the road

A recent fundraising email from Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi with the subject line “Sooner than we think?” includes speculation that Smith’s United Conservative Party is “so afraid of losing power, they’re trying everything to give themselves an unfair advantage. Including US-style gerrymandering.”

Nenshi’s “US-style gerrymandering” comment was a reference to UCP cabinet minister Nathan Neudorf’s controversial proposal to split the southern Alberta city of Lethbridge into four sprawling rural-urban ridings (a story that was first reported on Daveberta). It’s certainly clear what Neudorf’s preference is, but whether it gets included in the soon to be submitted interim report of the Electoral Boundaries Commission is yet to be seen.

The new boundaries will certainly play a big role in the next provincial election but regardless of how the provincial map is redrawn, most voting intention polls show not much has changed since the last provincial election. That vote resulted in two-way race between the UCP and NDP, with Smith’s party’s dominance over almost all of the rural and small city ridings giving them a numerical edge against Rachel Notley’s Edmonton-based NDP.

Former Speaker David Carter warns of too many Alberta MLAs

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date August 15, 2025

Former Calgary PC MLA David Carter, who served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1986 to 1993, wrote to the commission expressing his concern about increasing the total number of MLAs from 87 to 89:

“This will result in crowding. Including potential hinderance in the event of fire or evacuation from the Chamber. In my opinion, these additional seats are an ill-advised intrusion by the government and should be regarded architecturally as the absolute limit to the number of seats within the Chamber. I recommend this limitation be noted in the report.”

UCP MLA Glenn van Dijken on the “Unique Burden of Rural Representation”

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date August 14, 2025

Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock UCP MLA Glenn van Dijken asked the commission to consider what he described as the “Unique Burden of Rural Representation” when redrawing Alberta’s electoral map.

The three-term MLA urged the commission to lower the population averages in rural ridings so that rural MLAs will not have an increasingly large geographic region and more municipalities to represent in the Legislature, even if that means increasing the population averages in urban ridings.

Former Calgary mayor Al Duerr asks commission to respect city’s municipal boundaries

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date August 14, 2025

Former Calgary mayor Al Duerr argued in his written submission to the commission that lumping rural and commuter communities into Calgary ridings would be impractical, unfair and a detriment to effective representation.

The former four-term Calgary mayor, who served from 1989 to 2001, wrote that Calgary residents share different interests than people in neighbouring communities and they access different services and go to schools in wholly different school systems…