Categories
Alberta Politics

UCP chaos good for Notley’s NDP today but they shouldn’t count on it in 2023

It must have been craft beer and pizza with extra vegan cheese night at Alberta NDP HQ last night.

Not only is Premier Jason Kenney stepping down as leader of the United Conservative Party but he’s staying on until the next leader is chosen, whenever that will be.

And that certainly gives the NDP a reason to celebrate, at least for one night.

If Rachel Notley is the Alberta NDP’s most valuable player then Kenney is the runner up.

Kenney’s plummeting popularity has been a key to the NDP’s success in fundraising, organizing and recruiting candidates.

The NDP had $5.5 million in the bank at the end of 2021.

That’s a campaign war chest.

They have 24 candidates nominated, including some who won actual contested nomination races.

It’s understandable why UCP MLAs decided to keep Kenney around rather than choosing an interim leader, but this will probably only help the NDP.

At least in the short-term.

As UCP MLAs were cloistered in the McDougall Centre, Notley was in Calgary showing off her party’s roster of nominated candidates

She billed them as ‘a united, capable team of Albertans who are focused on making life better for Alberta families and businesses.’

Notley and NDP MLAs have been spending every spare moment in Calgary.

It’s a full-court press.

They know they have to make big gains in the province’s largest city to form government.

And they have some impressive bench strength.

Former city councillor Druh Farrell in Calgary-Bow.

Energy analyst Samir Kayende in Calgary-Elbow.

Sustainable energy expert Nagwan Al-Guneid in Calgary-Glenmore. 

Canadian Forces veteran and police commission vice-chair Marilyn North Peigan in Calgary-Klein.

Physician Luanne Metz in Calgary-Varsity.

Calgarians with impressive resumes who could presumably become cabinet ministers on Day 1 of a new Notley government, which is what she will need if her party wins in 2023.

It feels more like a Progressive Conservative lineup than a traditional working-class NDP slate.

That’s Alberta politics today.

But even as they lead the province-wide polls, the path to victory is still steep for the NDP.

It’s not a slam dunk.

Their support is concentrated in Edmonton, where they already have almost every seat. 

They will need to make big gains Calgary, and Lethbridge and the ridings surrounding Edmonton.

But that might not be enough.

They also need to win seats in small cities and rural Alberta where the electoral math gets a lot harder, especially if the UCP remains “united” in the next election.

Red Deer? Medicine Hat? Grande Prairie? Fort McMurray?

Those are tough nuts to crack.

The UCP swept those cities with huge victories in 2019.

But there are a few opportunities for the NDP outside of the big cities. 

Former cabinet minster and Registered Nurse Danielle Larivee in Lesser Slave Lake.

Conservation scientist Sarah Elmeligi in Banff-Kananaskis.

Former city councillor Rob Miyashiro in Lethbridge-East.

Former county councillor Karen Shaw in Morinville-St Albert.

County Councillor Bill Tonita in Strathcona-Sherwood Park.

Maybe former cabinet minister Oneil Carlier in Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland. 

It gets harder to name obvious potential NDP pickups after that.

My back of napkin math puts the NDP at probably around 44 or 45 seats if they hold their current support in the polls.

The barest of majorities in the 87 seat legislature.

But, as some of us have learned the hard way, campaigns matter.

And we still don’t know who the next UCP leader will be.

If Kenney somehow finds his way back into his party’s good graces then it’s probably good news for the NDP. 

But if another person is leading the UCP into 2023, it could be a different ballgame.

The old PC Party had an uncanny ability to reinvent itself under new leaders. 

It’s a big reason the PC Party was able to hold on to government for 43 straight years.

That magic charm totally evaporated in 2015.

We don’t know if the UCP has inherited this self-preservation trait.

It certainly doesn’t look like it right now.

But even in disarray the UCP shouldn’t be underestimated.

They are still a powerful force in Alberta politics.

And they could still win in 2023, or sooner if an early election is called.

It’s something for our friends at the NDP to keep in mind as they nurse their celebratory hangovers this morning.


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Alberta Politics

Karen Shaw wins NDP nomination in Morinville-St. Albert, Denis Ram second candidate in Calgary-Cross NDP race

Former Sturgeon County Councillor Karen Shaw defeated high school teacher James Grondin to win the Alberta NDP nomination in Morinville-St. Albert, a rurban riding located just north of Edmonton.

“This community is Alberta’s Industrial Heartland, and I know the importance of this area not only to Alberta but to all of Canada,” Shaw said.

“I believe that Rachel Notley and Alberta’s NDP will put Alberta on the world stage for all the right reasons, and I want to make sure that Morinville-St Albert has strong representation on that stage,” she said.

Shaw served on County Council from 2007 to 2021, representing the rural areas surrounding the Town of Redwater. She and her family run a cattle farm in the Redwater area.

The riding is currently represented by United Conservative Party MLA and Associate Minister of Natural Gas Dale Nally. Nally was first elected with 50 per cent of the vote in 2019, defeating then-NDP candidate Natalie Birnie who placed second with 33.1 per cent.

Denis Ram second candidate to enter NDP race in Calgary-Cross

Denis Ram NDP nomination candidate election Calgary-Cross
Denis Ram

Denis Ram is the second candidate to enter the NDP nomination race in Calgary-Cross. Ram is a student-at-law and founder and executive director of the Complete Complaints Foundation. He is also a former intern editorial writer for The Hill Times in Ottawa.

Gurinder Singh Gill announced his candidacy for the nomination in Calgary-Cross last month.

Whoever wins the NDP nomination will probably face first-term UCP MLA Mickey Amery, who is running for his party’s nomination for re-election. The candidate entry deadline for the UCP nomination is May 3, 2022.

Open UCP nominations in Calgary-Currie, Calgary-Foothils, Calgary-Peigan and Sherwood Park have a candidate entry deadline of May 3, and in Spruce Grove-St. Albert the deadline is set for May 5. It is unclear whether the incumbent UCP MLAs representing these ridings will face any challengers.

The NDP have recently scheduled nomination meetings in Calgary-Acadia for May 26 (Registered Nurse Diana Batten is seeking the nomination), Edmonton-Rutherford for May 29 (Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse is running for the nomination), Airdrie-Cochrane for May 30 (union activist and past candidate Steven Durrell and University of Calgary Associate Law Professor Shaun Fluker are seeking the nomination).

Alberta Party opens nomination race in Calgary-Elbow

It also appears that the Alberta Party has scheduled their first nomination meeting for this election cycle – in Calgary-Elbow on May 29.

The riding was the first and to-date only riding to elect an Alberta Party MLA when, in 2015, party leader Greg Clark unseated Progressive Conservative Education Minister Gordon Dirks.

After the popular Clark was pushed out of the leadership and replaced by Stephen Mandel in 2018, he was unable to win re-election in 2019. Soon after the election, Clark was appointed by the UCP as board chair of Alberta’s balancing pool.

The riding is currently represented by UCP MLA and Minister of Jobs, Economy and Innovation Doug Schweitzer. The NDP have nominated energy analyst Samir Kayande as their candidate.

Upcoming nomination meetings

  • Calgary-Glenmore NDP: May 10, 2022
  • Calgary-Bow NDP: May 12, 2022
  • Edmonton-North West NDP: May 18, 2022
  • Calgary-Acadia NDP: May 26, 2022
  • Edmonton-Meadows NDP: May 28, 2022
  • Edmonton-Rutherford NDP: May 28, 2022
  • Calgary-Elbow AP: May 29, 2022
  • Airdrie-Cochrane NDP: May 30, 2022
  • Edmonton-South West NDP: June 18, 2022

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Alberta Politics

Richard Feehan retiring, Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse running for NDP nomination in Edmonton-Rutherford, Sharif Haji challenging Chris Neilsen in Edmonton-Decore

I’m back, again, with another candidate nomination update.

The United Conservative Party is still tied in knots over Premier Jason Kenney’s leadership review and a real-time caucus revolt, so most of the nomination news is coming from the Alberta NDP column today.

But while the next election is scheduled to take place in May 2023, there is increasing speculation that Kenney could call an early summer or fall 2022 election if he wins the leadership review in order to clear out his growing chorus of opponents in the UCP Caucus.

Back to nominations. Here we go.

Richard Feehan NDP Edmonton Rutherford MLA
Richard Feehan

Edmonton-Rutherford NDP MLA Richard Feehan announced last Friday that he will not run for re-election when the next provincial election is called. 

The second-term MLA for Edmonton-Rutherford was first elected in 2015 and served as the NDP’s Minister of Indigenous Relations from 2016 to 2019.

Before his election, Feehan worked as a social worker, social work instructor at the University of Calgary, Vice President of Catholic Social Services, and Program Director of the Edmonton Social Planning Council.

Feehan was re-elected in 2019 with 54.8 per cent of the vote, ahead of UCP candidate Hannah Presakarchuk, who finished second with 34.7

Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse is the first person to enter the NDP nomination contest in this southwest Edmonton riding. 

Calahoo Stonehouse is the Executive Director of the Yellowhead Indigenous Education Foundation and is a member of the Edmonton Police Commission. She is a former Band Councillor with the Michel First Nation and in 2021 she ran to become National Chief of the Assembly of First Nations.

Endorsing Calahoo Stonehouse at her camapign launch were Edmonton-Griesbach NDP Member of Parliament Blake Desjarlais and City Councillor Michael Janz. 

Sharif Haji NDP Nomination Edmonton-Decore
Sharif Haji

On the north side of the capital city, Sharif Haji has announced his plans to challenge two-term MLA Chris Nielsen for the NDP nomination in Edmonton-Decore.

Haji is executive director of the Africa Centre and previously worked as for the provincial government’s departments of Seniors and Housing and Health.

Nielsen has represented the riding since 2015, when the NDP’s orange wave swept the province. He is also seeking the nomination.

The Challengers

Calgary-Bow: Former city councillor Druh Farrell is expected to be acclaimed at a May 12, 2022 nomination meeting in this south west Calgary riding. Farrell served on Calgary City Council from 2001 to 2021 and her candidacy created some controversy among local New Democratic activists in the riding.

Nagwan Al-Guneid Calgary-Glenmore NDP nomination
Nagwan Al-Guneid

Calgary-Glenmore: Sustainable energy development expert Nagwan Al-Guneid and communications professional Jennifer Burgess are seeking the NDP nomination scheduled for May 10, 2022.

Calgary-North: Moses Mariam is seeking the NDP nomination. Mariam is a Member Administrator at Calgary’s CommunityWise Resource Centre. 

Central Peace-Notley: Fairview resident Lynn Lekisch is seeking the NDP nomination in Central Peace-Notley. She is the owner of Enviro Projects and has previously worked as an environmental project manager for various energy companies.

Part of the riding was represented by NDP MLA Marg McCuaig-Boyd from 2015 until she was defeated by UCP MLA Todd Loewen after the riding was redistributed in the 2019 election. Loewen was ejected from the UCP Caucus in May 2021 after calling for Premier Jason Kenney to resign. 

Edmonton-South West: The NDP have set June 18, 2022 for a nomination meeting in the only Edmonton riding that did not elect an NDP MLA in 2019. Ben Acquaye, Chand Gul, Mohammad Ali Kamal, and Nathan Ip are seeking the nomination.

Leduc-Beaumont: Paramedic Cam Heenan was nominated as the NDP candidate in Leduc-Beaumont. Heenan defeated Registered Nurse Chantelle Hosseiny to win the nomination.

“I became a paramedic because I wanted to help people. I want to see a better future for our province, and that’s what led me to wanting to join Rachel Notley’s team,” Hennan said. “I know that with her leadership, Alberta’s NDP can expand our public healthcare, invest in education, and ensure all Alberta families can afford their bills at the end of the month.”

The riding has been represented by UCP MLA Brad Rutherford since 2019 and was held by NDP MLA Shaye Anderson from 2015 to 2019.

Morinville-St. Albert: Former Sturgeon County Councillor Karen Shaw and teacher James Grondin will face off for the NDP nomination at a meeting scheduled on April 30.  The riding is currently represented by UCP MLA Dale Nally, who serves as Associate Minister of Natural Gas. 

Sherwood Park: Kyle Kasawski is the second candidate to enter the NDP nomination in Sherwood Park, a suburban hamlet of 71,000 people located directly east of Edmonton.

Kasawski is President of Solar People, a solar energy company, and previously worked as a Client Development Director with Alberta Municipalities and as an Instructor in the NAIT Alternative Energy Technology Program where he taught Advanced Energy System Design and Energy Economics.

“I want to help create an Alberta with an amazing, affordable, high quality of life – where our kids go to excellent public schools, access to healthcare is dependable, and we have a few bucks left over at the end of each month after paying all of the bills,” Kasawski said when reached for comment. “I want this to be a place for people to live and thrive.”

Kasawski will face former MLA Annie McKitrick in the nomination race.

The riding is currently represented by UCP MLA Jordan Walker, who is seeking his party’s nomination for re-election.

The Incumbents

Edmonton-Meadows: MLA Jasvir Deol is running for the NDP nomination, which is scheduled to take place on May 28, 2022. Deol was first elected in 2019 after defeating former MLA Denise Woollard for the NDP nomination.

Edmonton-Mill Woods: Christina Gray was nominated as the NDP candidate in Edmonton-Mill Woods. Gray has represented the riding since 2015 and served as Minister of Labour from 2016 to 2019. 

Edmonton-North West: MLA David Eggen has announced his plans to run for re-election. Eggen was first elected in 2004 and served as MLA for Edmonton-Calder from 2004 to 2008 and 2012 to 2019 before being re-elected in the redrawn Edmonton-North West riding in 2019. He served as Minister of Education from 2015 to 2019. A nomination meeting is scheduled for May 18, 2022.

Searle Turton Spruce Grove Stony Plain United Conservative Party Alberta Election
Searle Turton

The UCP has opened up nominations in a handful of ridings. Nominations are now open in Calgary-Cross, Calgary-Currie, Calgary-Foothills, Calgary-Peigan, Sherwood Park and Spruce Grove-Stony Plain. Unsurprisingly, these ridings are all represented by MLAs who would be described as Kenney-loyalists.

While most of the UCP MLAs representing these ridings are expected to seek re-election, only Calgary-Cross’ Mickey Amery, Sherwood Park’s Walker and Spruce Grove-Stony Plain MLA Searle Turton have confirmed their intentions.

Turton was first elected to the Legislature in 2019 after serving three-terms on Spruce Grove City Council. He currently serves as the parliamentary secretary to the Minister of Energy and the Minister of Labour and Immigration’s liaison to private sector unions, and he is the chairperson of the UCP’s Capital Region Caucus.

Meanwhile, newly elected UCP MLA, Kenney critic and leadership aspirant Brian Jean says he would reopen the UCP nomination in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre to allow disqualified candidate Tim Hoven to challenge cabinet minister Jason Nixon.

Nixon, Kenney’s chief lieutenant, was acclaimed for the UCP nomination after Hoven was disqualified by the party. Many political observers believe that Hoven was mounting a very strong challenge to Nixon in the nomination.

NDP fixated on Calgary

The NDP have been spending a lot of time in Calgary.

Rachel Notley and a group of MLAs and candidates were on hand for a nomination rally for Rosman Valencia in Calgary-East. The NDP believe significant gains in east and northeast Calgary are critical to their path to winning the next election.

MLA David Eggen was recently spotted on social media door-knocking with Calgary-North East candidate Gurinder Brar and Richard Feehan was door-knocking with supporters in Calgary-Beddington.

MLA David Eggen with Gurdiner Brar and supporters in Calgary-North East.
MLA David Eggen with Gurdiner Brar and supporters in Calgary-North East.

NDP MLAs were also spotted door knocking in Canmore and Banff with Banff-Kananaskis candidate Sarah Elmeligi. I’m told Elmeligi was joined on the doors by Notley and MLAs Joe Ceci, Sarah Hoffman, Janis Irwin, Marlin Schmidt, Irfan Sabir and Shannon Phillips. Notley and Irwin also posted a photo on social media with Banff Mayor Corrie DiManno.

NDP leader Rachel Notley, Banff Mayor Corrie DiManno, and NDP MLA Janis Irwin (source: Twitter)
NDP leader Rachel Notley, Banff Mayor Corrie DiManno, and NDP MLA Janis Irwin (source: Twitter)

Upcoming nomination meetings

  • Morinville-St. Albert NDP: April 30, 2022
  • Calgary-Glenmore NDP: May 10, 2022
  • Calgary-Bow NDP: May 12, 2022
  • Edmonton-North West NDP: May 18, 2022
  • Calgary-Acadia NDP: May 26, 2022
  • Edmonton-Meadows NDP: May 28, 2022
  • Airdrie-Cochrane NDP: May 30, 2022
  • Edmonton-South West NDP: June 18, 2022
Categories
Alberta Politics

Nomination Updates: UCP cancels rumbles in Rocky and Cardston, disqualifies Tim Hoven and Jodie Gateman

I take a few days off and there’s a million new candidate nomination updates.

It sure feels like election season in Alberta. Or maybe it’s just Leadership Review season.

Ok. Let’s get on with the updates.

Tim Hoven and Jodie Gateman have been disqualified from the United Conservative Party nomination races in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre and Cardston-Siksika.

The right-wing municipal politicians were challenging two high-profile Jason Kenney loyalists – Government House Leader and Environment & Parks Minister Jason Nixon and Deputy Government House Leader Joseph Schow.

The party says they were disqualified because of controversial posts they shared and liked on social media.

People close to Gateman’s campaign say it was because she was accused of reposting conspiracy theories on her social media accounts.

They tell me that party staff even asked her if she was in Washington D.C. on January 6, 2021. (The person I spoke with said she was visiting family in Las Vegas).

Disqualifying them avoids negative media attention from unwanted bozo-eruptions and has the added bonus of protecting two Kenney loyalists who were by most accounts considered vulnerable in the nomination.

They also both happened to be endorsed by Kenney rivals Brian Jean and Drew Barnes.

Without nomination races to keep them busy, there’s more time to focus on the April 9 leadership review in Red Deer.

Gateman is now shifting her attention to getting as many of her supporters to vote against Kenney at the April 9 leadership review in Red Deer.

They are renting buses.

Maybe someone will call in and ask Kenney about it on his debut radio show this weekend?

A new poll from ThinkHQ shows that 64 per cent of Albertans and 59 per cent of UCP voters want Kenney gone.

More on that later. Now back to the nomination updates.

For the UCP:

  • It hasn’t been announced yet, but is appears that Calgary-Shaw MLA Rebecca Schulz and Calgary-South East MLA Matt Jones will be acclaimed as the UCP candidates in their ridings.
  • MLA Josephine Pon is running for the UCP nomination in Calgary-Beddington. Pon was first elected in 2019.
  • MLA Mickey Amery is running for the UCP nomination in Calgary-Cross. Amery was first elected in 2019.
  • MLA Peter Singh is running for the UCP nomination in Calgary-East. Singh was first elected in 2019.
  • Legislative Assembly Speaker MLA Nathan Cooper is running for the UCP nomination in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. Cooper was first elected in 2015.
  • MLA Dan Williams is running for the UCP nomination in Peace River. Williams was first elected in 2019.
  • Service Alberta Minister and MLA Nate Glubish is running for the UCP nomination in Strathcona-Sherwood Park. Glubish was first elected in 2019.

For the NDP:

  • Dave Cournoyer and Rakhi Pancholi the day before the 2019 election was called.
    Dave Cournoyer and Rakhi Pancholi the day before the 2019 election was called.

    MLA Irfan Sabir has been nominated to run for re-election in the recently renamed Calgary-Bhullar-McCall. Sabir was first elected in 2015.

  • MLA Rakhi Pancholi has announced her plans to run for the NDP nomination in Edmonton-Whitemud. Pancholi was first elected in 2019.
  • MLA Christina Gray is running for the NDP nomination in Edmonton-Mill Woods. Gray was first elected in 2015 and served as Minister of Labour from 2015 to 2019.
  • Respected energy analyst Samir Kayande is now the NDP candidate in Calgary-Elbow.
  • Canmore town councillor Tonya Foubert is the fourth candidate to join the NDP nomination contest in Banff-Kananaskis.
  • Director Business Renewables Centre Canada director Nagwan Al-Guneid is the second candidate to enter the NDP nomination race in Calgary-Glenmore. They join communications consultant Jennifer Burgess in the race.
  • Registered Nurse Diana Batten is running for the NDP nomination in Calgary-Acadia.
  • Rosman Valencia is now the only candidate seeking the NDP nomination in Calgary-East after Alison Karim-McSwiney withdrew from the contest.
  • Registered Nurse Chantelle Hosseiny and paramedic Cameron Heenan are seeking the NDP nomination in Leduc-Beaumont.
  • Teacher James Grondin is the second candidate to enter the NDP nomination race in Morinville-St. Albert. Former Sturgeon County Councillor Karen Shaw joined the race in Dec. 2021.

Here are the upcoming nomination meetings that have been scheduled:

  • Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland NDP: March 12, 2022 
  • Lesser Slave Lake NDP: March 13, 2022
  • Calgary-Shaw UCP: March 21, 2022
  • Calgary-South East UCP: March 21, 2022
  • Cardston-Siksika UCP: March 21, 2022
  • Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre UCP: March 23, 2022
  • Calgary-Edgemont UCP: March 24, 2022
  • Calgary-Klein UCP: March 24, 2022
  • Drumheller-Stettler UCP: March 24, 2022
  • Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville UCP: March 24, 2022
  • Peace River UCP: March 24, 2022
  • St. Albert NDP: March 24, 2022
  • Calgary-Klein NDP: March 26, 2022
  • Banff-Kananaskis NDP: March 27, 2022
  • Calgary-Beddington UCP: March 29, 2022
  • Calgary-East UCP: March 29, 2022
  • Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills UCP: March 29, 2022
  • Strathcona-Sherwood Park UCP: March 29, 2022
  • Camrose NDP: April 3, 2022
  • Edmonton-Whitemud NDP: April 7, 2022
  • Calgary-East NDP: April 9,2022
  • Edmonton-Mill Woods NDP: April 10, 2022
Categories
Alberta Politics

Former County Councillor Karen Shaw seeking NDP nomination in Morinville-St. Albert, Kenney still silent on Jean’s win in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche

Former Sturgeon County councillor Karen Shaw announced that she is seeking the Alberta NDP nomination in Morinville-St. Albert. Shaw represented Division 6 on Sturgeon County Council from 2007 to 2021, which covers the northeast corner of the riding surrounding the Town of Redwater. She did not run for re-election to council in 2021.

“As a municipal leader for the past 14 years, I’ve worked to make positive changes to strengthen the community and economy, especially when it came to the Heartland and regional partners.” said Shaw. “It’s clear to me that Rachel Notley is the leader we need, and she has the best vision for Alberta.”

Karen and her husband Stuart, raise commercial Simmental X Angus cattle in the Redwater area.

The riding was created in 2019 from areas of the former Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock riding, which elected Wildrose MLA Glenn van Dijken in 2015, and Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater and St. Albert ridings, which elected NDP MLAs Colin Piquette and Marie Renaud in 2015. 

It is currently represented by United Conservative Party MLA Dale Nally, who has served as Associate Minister of Natural Gas and Electricity since April 2019. Nally was elected in 2019 with 50 per cent of the vote, with NDP candidate Natalie Birnie placing second with 33.2 per cent.

Kenney silent on Jean’s win

It has been more than 24 hours since former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean declared victory in the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche UCP nomination contest and neither Premier Jason Kenney nor the UCP have made any public statement about the results.

Party leaders typically trumpet the nomination of their party’s candidates, but the radio silence from Kenney and the UCP telegraphs how the Premier feels about his rival winning the contest to run in the by-election.

Running on an anti-Kenney platform, Jean won the nomination with 68 per cent of the vote and defeated Kenney-backed candidate Joshua Gogo.


I am building a list of candidates running for party nominations ahead of Alberta’s expected 2023 provincial election. If I have missed any candidates on my list, please post a comment below or send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. Thank you!