Tag: Deron Bilous

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Alberta Politics

the day after: alberta election analysis.

Alberta Election Results 2012
Alberta Election Results 2012

What was expected to be the most exciting provincial election in history of our province turned out to be a continuation of the 41-year old Progressive Conservative dynasty. The pollsters, the media, and the pundits (including this blogger) appear to have completely misjudged the electoral climate in the final days of the election.

Unofficial Results
PC: 61
Wildrose: 17
Liberal: 5
NDP: 4

It appears that the PC Party call to moderate voters to vote strategically to block the Wildrose Party from forming government was successful in Calgary, Edmonton, and northern Alberta. While the Tories ran a completely lacklustre campaign, Albertans’ unease with the thorny social conservative views of Wildrose candidates Allan Hunsperger and Ron Leech undoubtedly drew moderates to cast their ballots for the PCs yesterday.

Alison Redford Alberta Election 2012 Conservative leader
Alison Redford

At least for now, Premier Alison Redford is secure in her position as leader of the PC Party. The PCs have re-elected a number of veteran MLAs, including Dave Hancock in Edmonton-Whitemud, and a new cast of rookie MLAs who will amount to about 1/3 of the governing caucus.

The golden rule of Alberta elections remains truth: never bet against the incumbent.

The Tories have lost many of their former strongholds in rural Alberta and cabinet giants, including Ted Morton in Chestermere-Rockyview, Evan Berger in Livingstone-Macleod, Jack Hayden in Drumheller-Stettler, and Ray Danyluk in Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills. Successful use of wedge issues like property rights likely played a significant role in the Wildrose winning these rural constituencies.

Danielle Smith Wildrose Party Alberta Election 2012
Danielle Smith

With 17 MLA’s, Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party will form the Official Opposition in the Assembly. Ms. Smith’s challenges are two-fold. First, she must manage the expectations of disappointed caucus members who expected to be sitting in the government benches. Second, she must form a cohesive opposition consisting of mostly rookie MLA’s (including herself). Two of the Wildrose Party’s four incumbent MLA’s were defeated last night. Only MLA Heather Forsyth in Calgary-Fish Creek and Rob Anderson in Airdrie were re-elected.

The Wildrose caucus is almost entirely made up of MLA’s from southern rural Alberta constituencies, which breaks from the almost three decade-long tradition of urban-based Liberal or NDP official oppositions. This will be the first time since the Social Credit Party formed official opposition in 1971 that a large caucus of rural MLAs are the official opposition. Despite signs of a wave early in the campaign, the Wildrose Party only elected two MLA’s in Calgary, including Ms. Forsyth and Jeff Wilson, who defeated PC appointee candidate Farouk Adatia in Calgary-Shaw.

Raj Sherman Liberal Party leader Election 2012
Raj Sherman

“It was a miracle that we survived” was Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman‘s comment on CBC Radio this morning. The Liberal Party elected five MLA’s last night, losing official opposition status for the first time in nineteen years. The Liberal vote collapsed across the province to 10% and the party lost long-time Liberal voting constituencies Edmonton-Gold Bar, Edmonton-Riverview, and Calgary-Varsity to the Tories.

Former Liberal MLA Maurice Tougas may have said it best on his blog this morning, “Liberals will now have to ask themselves what their place is in Alberta politics, or indeed if there is any place for them at all.”

The NDP probably have mixed feelings this morning. NDP leader Brian Mason ran a smooth campaign and his party has gained official party status by adding former MLA David Eggen from Edmonton-Calder and Deron Bilous from Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview to their caucus, but they are still one MLA smaller than the Liberals, who many New Democrats had hoped to surpass.

There are some pretty disappointed people in the Alberta Party camp this morning. Their hopes for electing an MLA were dashed, but the party earned 17,144 across the province, which leaves them with something to build on for the next election.

More to come…

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Alberta Politics

redford tories win a majority in alberta election.

PC Majority
Premier Alison Redford's Tories have won a majority in Alberta's election.

What was expected to be the most exciting provincial election in history of Alberta has turned out to be the continuation of the 41 year Progressive Conservative dynasty. The pollsters, the media, and the pundits (this blogger included) appear to have completely misjudged the electoral climate in the final days of the election.

Global Television, CTV, and CBC have all declared a majority government for Premier Alison Redford‘s PC Party.

It appears that the call by the PC Party to moderate Liberal and NDP voters to vote strategically to block the Wildrose Party from forming government was successful. The Liberal Party vote, at 25% in the 2008 election, has collapsed across the province. At this point in the evening, Liberal leader Raj Sherman is trailing the Tory challenger in his Edmonton-Meadowlark constituency.

The NDP are on track to elect 4 MLAs, adding former MLA David Eggen from Edmonton-Calder and Deron Bilous from Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview.

The Wildrose Party has swept southern Alberta. Danielle Smith and official opposition party Wildrose Party now have the challenge of managing the expectations of their supporters who believed that they were on the cusp of forming government.

As of 9:42 p.m., CBC is reporting the seat count as (leading or elected):

PC: 23 Elected, 37 Leading
Wildrose: 7 Elected, 13 Leading
NDP: 2 Elected, 2 Leading
Liberal: 3 Leading

More analysis as the results come in.

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trying to go viral: pre-election youtube videos.

With a provincial election expected to be called within the next week or two, candidates representing Alberta’s political parties have been hoping to grab voters attentions by uploading campaign videos on YouTube.

The best YouTube video I have seen so far in this pre-election period belongs to Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview NDP candidate Deron Bilous. The video is a five minute mini-documentary that gives a good introduction and background to the candidate.

Mostly produced by the candidates and their campaign teams, with the exception of the central campaign filmed Progressive Conservative videos. The PC videos, featuring candidates Doug Griffiths, Jason Luan, Rick Fraser, and Bob Maskell, include the same format and special effects (including a talking billboard headshot of the candidates). These videos have a good production quality, but have a better effect when the speaker is dynamic.

The Wildrose Party video features Cardston-Taber-Warner candidate Gary Bikman. Having only lost this constituency to the PCs by 49 votes in the last provincial election, it is high on the Wildrose list of target constituencies.

The next two videos feature Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Liberal candidate Les Vidok and Edmonton-Ellerslie NDP candidate Rod Loyola.

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15 races to watch in alberta’s 2012 election.

In the lead up to the Alberta’s 2012 election, I have identified fifteen constituencies across the province that could produce interesting contests and results when the election is called.

15 races to watch in Alberta's 2012 election.
15 races to watch in Alberta's 2012 election.

1) Highwood
The Wildrose Party has staked their future in the success of leader Danielle Smith and I expect that party will pull out all the stops to ensure she is elected. The PCs have nominated newspaper editor John Barlow to replace retiring PC MLA George Groeneveld.

2) Edmonton-Meadowlark
This area has deep Liberal roots, having first elected MLA Grant Mitchell in 1986, but since 2001 it has become a swing-riding electing both Liberals and PCs. Currently held by former PC MLA and now Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman, the next vote will be a test of his personal popularity as he runs under his new party’s banner. He will face former PC MLA Bob Maskell, who served from 2001 until 2004.

3) Edmonton-Calder
Voters in this constituency are notorious swing-voters. No incumbent has been re-elected here since 1997. Current PC MLA Doug Elniski made a last minute announcement that he would not seek re-election, leaving former school trustee and newly nominated candidate Bev Esslinger not a lot of time to catch up. Former MLA David Eggen has been campaigning in Calder for the past three years and is expected to launch a well-organized campaign. Wildrose candidate Rich Neumann may play kingmaker if he is able to attract enough past PC voters.

4) Calgary-Glenmore
In 2009, outgoing Wildrose leader Paul Hinman narrowly won a hotly contested by-election that was seen as a referendum on then-Premier Ed Stelmach‘s popularity in Calgary (which was low). With new Premier Alison Redford representing the neighboring constituency, PC candidate Linda Johnson may receive a warmer reception at the doors. Throw into the mix former Mount Royal College instructor Craig Cheffins, who served as the Liberal MLA for Calgary-Elbow from 2007 to 2008, and the outcome of this race could be difficult to predict.

5) Edmonton-Glenora
Represented by both PC and Liberal MLAs over the past twenty years, this constituency could be a key battleground for five opposition parties in the next election. Former Liberal MLA Bruce Miller is challenging PC cabinet minister Heather Klimchuk, who unseated him by 136 votes in 2008. Rev. Miller is not the only challenger in this election. The Alberta Party is pinning their hopes on former school trustee Sue Huff, the NDP have nominated former MLA and leader Ray Martin, and the Wildrose have chosen past Mayoral candidate Don Koziak.

6) Calgary-Varsity
With the retirement of popular two-term Liberal MLA Harry Chase, the Liberals have nominated former carpenters’ union official Bruce Payne, who ran for that party’s leadership in 2011. The PCs have chosen former Nexen vice-president Donna Kennedy-Glans. The results of this race will be a critical indicator of whether the Liberals can hold on to, and build on, important gains made in Calgary during the past two elections.

7) Chestermere-Rockyview
Energy Minister Ted Morton will face off against former Global Calgary news anchor and Wildrose candidate Bruce McAllister. The Wildrose attacked Minister Morton’s credentials as a “fiscal mallard” while he was Finance Minister and by nominating Mr. McAllister they are showing that they will not give him a pass in the next election.

8 ) Airdrie
When first-term PC MLA Rob Anderson joined the Wildrose in 2010, he automatically became a target of his former party, who have nominated Alderman Kelly Hegg as their candidate. The Airdrie area has typically voted for the PCs, but voters in this region have been known to elect opposition candidates in the past (Western Canadian Concept MLA Gordon Kesler was elected in 1982 and Liberal MLA Don MacDonald was elected in 1992).

9) Cardston-Taber-Warner
After being unseated by Wildorse MLA Mr. Hinman in 2004, PC MLA Broyce Jacobs won a narrow victory in 2008. Fast forward to 2012, Mr. Jacobs has lost his party’s nomination to Pat Shimbashi and the Wildrose has nominated Sterling Deputy Mayor Gary Bikman. If the Wildrose are to pick up seats in the election, this will likely be one.

10) Edmonton-Rutherford
In a rematch of the closest race of the 2008 election, PC MLA Fred Horne will face former Liberal MLA Rick Miller. While 2008 a two-way contest, the 2012 contest is more interesting with the presence of community organizer and Alberta Party candidate Michael Walters and Wildrose candidate Kyle McLeod.

11) Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
After winning four elections as this constituency’s PC candidate, late-blooming Wildrose MLA Guy Boutilier will face Wood Buffalo deputy mayor Mike Allen in the upcoming vote. After decades as a municipal and provincial politician, this election may be more a test of Mr. Boutilier’s personal support than that of his new party.

12) Edmonton-Gold Bar
A Liberal Party stronghold since 1986, the retirement of MLA Hugh MacDonald and the redistribution of electoral boundaries south encompassing Tory-voting neighbourhoods may give second-time PC candidate David Dorward a boost. Liberal candidate Josipa Petrunic is a well-spoken and passionate partisan who hopes to hold the constituency for her party. The NDP have nominated Marlin Schmidt and hope to capitalize on local support for NDP MP Linda Duncan.

13) Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview
A close contest in 2008 saw former PC MLA Tony Vandermeer defeat NDP MLA Ray Martin. In 2012, Mr. Vandermeer will face a strong challenge from NDP candidate Deron Bilous.

14) Lethbridge-West
After twenty years of close races, voters in this constituency have proven themselves to be deeply divided between the PCs and Liberals. This election, first-term PC MLA Greg Weadick and second-time Liberal candidate Bal Boora will be joined by NDP candidate Shannon Phillips, who has launched a spirited campaign, and Wildrose candidate Kevin Kinahan. Even if Mr. Weadick is re-elected, the real story may be who places second in this politically moderate southern Alberta constituency.

15) Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock
After more than three decades in the Assembly, the departure of PC MLA Ken Kowalski has created a large void to fill in this constituency north of Edmonton. The PCs have nominated Westlock County Councillor Maureen Kubinec, who will face off against her main opponent Wildrose candidate Link Byfield. Mr. Byfield has been campaigning for more than a year and could make gains if he is able to tap into the base of social conservative voters in this constituency.

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Alberta Politics

how much money do alberta’s political parties have in the bank? comparing financial disclosures from 2009 and 2010.

Submitted to Elections Alberta earlier this year, the 2010 financial disclosures from the constituency associations of Alberta’s political parties have been released (the central party financial disclosures were released in April). I have taken some time over the past few days to collect the 2010 data and compare them with financial disclosures from 2009.

There are a number of interesting things about these disclosures, including the annual expenses of some constituency associations as recently mentioned by Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA Hugh MacDonald.

Not surprisingly, the Progressive Conservatives have shown their political strength with functional organizations in nearly all 83 constituencies. PC constituency associations disclosed over $3.1 million in net assets in 2010, a jump from $2.5 million in 2009. The three wealthiest PC constituency associations with over $100,000 in net assets are Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock (MLA Ken Kowalski), Calgary-Elbow (MLA Alison Redford), and Whitecourt-Ste. Anne (MLA George VanderBurg).

The Wildrose Alliance showed substantial growth in 2010, as its constituency associations grew their total net assets to $455,595 from a low $78,298 in 2009. The constituency organizations of two of that party’s new MLAs, former Tories Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth, increased their net assets by an impressive $60,723 in Airdrie-Chestermere and $36,075 in Calgary-Fish Creek in 2010.

The Liberals showed marginal financial growth and still face substantial challenges in fundraising compared to the PCs and Wildrose Alliance. The Liberals fundraised well in constituencies their 8 MLAs currently represent and a few other constituencies which that party’s MLAs held until the last election (notably Edmonton-Rutherford, where former MLA RIck Miller is his party’s nominated candidate).

In five constituencies that the Liberals represented until 2008 or more recently, there were signs that none or very little local fundraising had taken place in 2010 (Calgary-Currie, Calgary-Elbow, Edmonton-Decore, Edmonton-Ellerslie, and Edmonton-Meadowlark).

Alberta NDP local organizations in the majority of the province’s constituencies appeared to be dormant or non-existant in 2010.

The NDP is strategically targeting its financial and organizational resources in a handful of constituencies in Edmonton where it hopes it can make gains in the next election. While the party’s local organizations have not wracked up large net assets, there is noticeable spending happening in a few constituencies (including more than $24,000 in expenses in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview where candidate Deron Bilous is campaigning).

Here are breakdowns of the party’s 2009 and 2010 financial disclosures:

Alberta progressive conservatives ca financial disclosures 2009 2010

View more documents from David Cournoyer.
Wildrose alliance party ca financial disclosures 2009 2010

View more documents from David Cournoyer.
Alberta liberal ca financial disclosures 2009 2010

View more documents from David Cournoyer.
Alberta NDP CA financial disclosures 2009 2010

View more documents from David Cournoyer.
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photos: a march afternoon health care rally in edmonton.

Over 200 people braved the cold this afternoon to rally in support of a public inquiry to investigate the intimidation of health care professionals.

 

AFL President Gil McGowan, NDP candidates Deron Bilous and Ray Martin, and Alberta Party acting leader Sue Huff on the steps of the Alberta Legislature.
Friends of Medicare's David Eggen and UNA President Heather Smith
Federal NDP candidates Lewis Cardinal, Linda Duncan, and Ray Martin.
Liberal Party leader David Swann.

See more photos on Flickr.

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nominations update – edmonton.

As the contests to replace the leaders of the governing Progressive Conservative Party and the Opposition Liberal Party and new Alberta Party grab the media spotlight, political parties have been quietly nominating candidates for the next election. I have been keeping track of the nominated and declared candidates across the province and this post focuses on the candidates stepping up to stand for election in Edmonton.

There is little reason to believe that constituencies in Edmonton will be any less competitive than they have been over the past 25 years and the rise of the Wildrose Alliance in public opinion polls will certainly effect the electoral environment in ways that we have not seen in previous elections.

Edmonton ridings with nominated NDP candidates (as of March 1, 2011).

Edmonton-Calder
Former MLA David Eggen has secured the NDP nomination and will attempt to win back the constituency that he represented from 2004 to 2008. The boundary changes presented in the interim report of the Electoral Boundaries Committee convinced Mr. Eggen to initially seek his party’s nomination in neighboring Edmonton-Glenora, but the final report’s boundaries shifted key neighbourhoods back to his former constituency.

The incumbent MLA, PC backbencher Doug Elniski, defeated Mr. Eggen by 201 votes in 2008. An amiable guy, Mr. Elniski has suffered from a few unfortunate public mis-speaks in his first term. Calder may be the truest “swing-riding” in Alberta, as it has been represented by PCs, New Democrats, and Liberals since 1986 and in the same time only twice re-elected an incumbent to a second term.

Edmonton-Clareview
Incumbent backbench PC MLA Tony Vandermeer was elected in 2008 by defeating NDP MLA Ray Martin by 337 votes (Mr. Martin is now the federal NDP candidate in Edmonton-East). Mr. Vandermeer also served as the PC MLA for Edmonton-Manning between 2001 and 2004. The NDP have nominated teacher Deron Bilous, who was his party’s candidate in Edmonton-Centre in the 2008 election.

Edmonton-Decore
First-term PC backbencher Janice Sarich made the transition from Catholic School District Trustee to MLA in 2008, snatching this seat from Liberal MLA Bill Bonko by 682 votes. Mrs. Sarich’s victory marked the first time that the PCs elected an MLA in this area since 1982. The Liberals have yet to officially nominate their candidate, but Zack Siezmagraff has started his campaign to reclaim the constituency for his party. The NDP have nominated Sheriff Ali Haymour as their candidate. Mr. Haymour was his party’s 2008 candidate in the neighboring Edmonton-Castle Downs, where he earned 9.6% against incumbent MLA Thomas Lukaszuk.

Edmonton ridings with nominated Liberal candidates (as of March 1, 2011).

Edmonton-Gold Bar
Incumbent Liberal MLA Hugh MacDonald is expected to seek re-election in the constituency he has represented since 1997. The only nominated challenger is New Democrat Marlin Schmidt, who is also President of his party’s electoral district association in the federal riding of Edmonton-Strathcona. Mr. MacDonald could face another dog-fight with his 2008 PC challenger David Dorward, who built a substantial amount of name recognition after his unsuccessful Mayoral bid in 2010.

Edmonton-McClung
Another swing-riding, first-term PC backbencher David Xiao could face of against nominated former Liberal MLA Mo Elsalhy, who represented the constituency from 2004 until 2008. Mr. Elsalhy sought the Liberal leadership in 2008, placing third and has announced that he will stay out of the current contest.

Edmonton-Meadowlark
Elected as a PC in 2008, Dr. Raj Sherman became an Independent MLA after being kicked out of the PC caucus in November 2010. Dr. Sherman has used his position as a vocal critic of the PC government’s record on health care to become a sort of political folk hero for Albertans, but recent comments have rubbed off some of his political shine. The constituency has been represented for most of the past 20 years by Liberal MLAs, most recently Maurice Tougas until 2008. Notwithstanding that party’s long history in the constituency, it has yet to nominate a candidate for the next election. Local Wildrose constituency President Rick Newcombe has expressed an interest in being his party’s candidate, but has yet to official declare his intentions.

Edmonton-Mill Woods
Former Liberal MLA Weslyn Mather will attempt to reclaim the constituency she lost to PC Carl Benito in 2008. Since being elected, Mr. Benito has become the source of amusement/ridicule for his strident support of Alberta’s official mushroom, his broken promise to donate his entire MLA salary to a scholarship fund, and his publicly blaming his wife for not filing his property taxes for two years. The NDP have nominated AUPE Vice-President Sandra Azocar as their candidate and are hoping that former Liberal-represented middle-class constituencies like Mill Woods are places that they can grow.

Edmonton ridings with nominated Wildrose candidates (as of March 1, 2011).

Edmonton-Riverview
The retirement of three-term Liberal MLA Kevin Taft will leave big shoes for candidates in this constituency to fill. I spoke with 2008 PC candidate Wendy Andrews at last week’s Speech from the Throne and she told me that she was still undecided about whether she wanted to run again. The Liberals have yet to hold a nomination meeting and the only candidate to publicly declare interest is consultant and Rotarian Arif Khan. I have heard rumors that former Public School Board Trustee Don Fleming may be interested in seeking the nomination. The NDP will nominate College of Social Workers coordinator Lori Sigurdson and are hoping that the votes MP Linda Duncan received in this area can be translated provincially. The Wildrose Alliance have nominated John Corie.

Edmonton-Rutherford
With three challengers already nominated, first-term PC backbencher Fred Horne has his work cut out for him. His main challenger at this point is former Liberal MLA Rick Miller, who represented the constituency from 2004 until 2008 when he was unexpectedly unseated by Mr. Horne. Mr. Miller has stayed involved in politics since 2008 as the Chief of Staff for the Liberal Official Opposition. The NDP have nominated Melanie Samaroden as their candidate and the Wildrose have re-nominated their 2008 candidate Kyle McLeod.

An overview of nominations in Calgary constituencies will be posted later this week.

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wildrose nominates eight candidates.

This email landed in my email inbox today. The Wildrose Alliance has nominated eight candidates for the next election (only 79 candidates away from a full-slate). As far as I am aware, the only other party to have nominated a candidate for the next election is the NDP, who have nominated Deron Bilous in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview.

The Wildrose Alliance Party is pleased to announce the following candidates:
• MLA Rob Anderson in Airdrie
• MLA Heather Forsyth in Calgary – Fish Creek
• MLA Paul Hinman in Calgary – Glenmore

• John Carpay in Calgary – Lougheed.
John practices law in Calgary. He is the former Executive Director of the Canadian Constitution Foundation and the former Alberta Director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

• Harpreet Nijjar in Calgary – Northern Hills.
Harpreet, a graduate of the University of Calgary, is an award winning young entrepreneur who runs an insurance brokerage.

• Shayne Saskiw in Lac La Biche – St. Paul – Two Hills.
Shayne, a graduate of the U of A, practices law in north eastern Alberta and was a former VP Policy for the Alberta PCs.

• Milvia Bauman in Medicine Hat.
Milvia is an entrepreneur and community leader in Medicine Hat. She is currently the Chair of the Medicine Hat Chamber of Commerce and Medicine Hat Safe Community Association.

• Danny Hozack in Vermillion – Lloydminster.
Danny farms in Streamstown Alberta. He is a long time conservative activist and has served on the boards of the Alberta Beef Producers, the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association, and Marwayne Minor Hockey.

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alberta politics notes 7/23/2010

– From the west coast, the mighty Tyee has published some interesting oilsands related articles this week: Oil Sands opponents will lose, Economist suggests and Lobby group vows to protect oil sands pipeline against new attack.
– Delegates from the PNWER conference toured the oilsands this week, including Alberta’s minister in Washington DC Gary Mar.
– Dan Arnold has some good photos of politicians playing cowboy at the Calgary Stampede.
– First came The Big Listen, now the Alberta Party brings us The Big Momentum.
– Health & Wellness Minister Gene Zwozdesky announced over $1 billion in infrastructure funding for facilities outside of Calgary and Edmonton. The NDP compared it to the the Dance of the Seven Veils (which I had to google).
– Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA Hugh MacDonald‘s latest target are staff bonuses at the Workers Compensation Board.
– Wildrose Alliance Communications Director Shawn Howard has moved on as his party announces the opening of candidate nomination processes in 11 constituencies across Alberta. The Liberals will be starting their own nomination process in earnest this fall. The NDP have already nominated their first candidate, Deron Bilous in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview.
– Former Liberal MLA Rick Miller is gearing up for the next election campaign. August 4 is the 15th annual Edmonton-Rutherford Salmon BBQ. Currently serving as the Official Opposition Chief of Staff, Mr. Miller narrowly lost his bid for re-election against PC candidate Fred Horne back in 2008.
– The crowded race for Calgary’s Mayorship may be getting more crowded. Rumours are strong that recently retired CTV news anchor Barb Higgins may be joining Naheed Nenshi, Kent Hehr, Ric McIver, Jon Lord, Bob Hawkeswoth, Joe Connelly, Craig Burrows, Paul Hughes, others in the race.
– The electoral battle in Edmonton-Glenora is heating up as former NDP MLA David Eggen is campaigning hard for the job:

Read more in the Alberta Politics Notes archive.

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tories would love to put opposition-held ridings on the chopping block.

Edmonton-Riverview under the electoral boundaries created in 2003.

I was not surprised to hear rumours that Edmonton-Riverview might be on the chopping block when the final report of the Electoral Boundaries Commission is released in July (the interim report had kept Riverview largely intact). The Tories have been trying and have been incredibly unsuccessful in capturing enough support to elect an MLA in Riverview since it was created in 1997. With decisive margins, Liberal MLAs Linda Sloan and Kevin Taft have been successful in holding off Tory challengers including Gwen Harris, City Councillor Wendy Kinsella, Fred Horne, and local president Wendy Andrews. I have read and heard many arguments in favour of disassembling Riverview, the largest being that it does not make sense for a riding to span across the North Saskatchewan River, which should act as a natural boundary (under the current boundaries, three Edmonton ridings cross the River). It is silly to argue that an urban MLA cannot represent a riding divided by a river when many rural MLAs represent ridings that span across the province.

With three appointees on the five-member Electoral Boundaries Commission, the PCs may finally get their chance to put Riverview on the chopping block.

Large-scale changes to Riverview were not included in the Commission’s interim report, but there were large changes to other opposition held ridings. Much of Edmonton-Cadler may merge with Edmonton-Glenora, a change that could pit former Calder NDP MLA David Eggen against Glenora PC MLA Heather Klimchuk in a riding that also has a tradition of electing Liberal MLAs.

Edmonton boundary changes proposed in Electoral Commission's interim report with poll-by-poll results from the 2008 election.

In Edmonton-Gold Bar, proposed changes in the interim report would give four-term Liberal MLA Hugh MacDonald an 8-vote margin, compared to a 1,018 margin of victory under the current boundaries in 2008. While sometimes overly-eccentric, Mr. MacDonald is one of the hardest working Opposition MLAs in the Assembly. It should not be surprising that the PCs have their eyes on Gold Bar, a riding that has elected Liberal MLAs since 1986.

The changes proposed in the interim report are not entirely unkind to the opposition when looking at the 2008 election results. The interim boundaries reduce PC MLA Tony Vandermeer‘s margin of victory in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview from 337 votes to 101 votes. Nominated New Democrat Deron Bilous is already gunning for Mr. Vandermeer’s job. The interim boundaries would have also helped Calgary-Elbow Liberal MLA Craig Cheffins defeat now-Justice Minister Alison Redford by 272 votes (instead, Mr. Cheffins was unseated by 419 votes in the current boundaries).

They are the most politically organized force province-wide, but it is understated how much of an advantage their 2006 leadership selection gave the PCs in 2008. Just over a year after their intensely competitive leadership race, large and fresh membership lists have the PCs a large advantage over their opponents, who had not developed these kind of large-scale lists.

The next election will present Albertans with new electoral boundaries and also a new political environment. The PC Party’s popularity has significantly dropped in the polls since the last election and its caucus has shrunk by a by-election defeat and MLA floor-crossings. David Swann is the first Liberal leader from Calgary since the 1970s and his party is nearly debt-free. The Wildrose Alliance is on its way to becoming well-organized and well-funded under the leadership of the politically-savvy Danielle Smith. The existence of the new Alberta Party is drawing support from many centrist and progressive political organizers. There is a general unhappiness and unease among Albertans with how the politics of governance is being operated in Alberta.

Even if some opposition-held ridings do get chopped and diced, the shifts in the political environment since the last election could make the could make any gerrymandering near irrelevant.

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alberta politics notes 5/06/2010

– Calgary-Buffalo Liberal MLA Kent Hehr has announced that he is running for Mayor of Calgary. Mr. Hehr does not have to resign his seat in the Assembly unless he is elected in the October 2010 election. If he does resign, a by-election will be triggered within six months (a Facebook group has been created to draft Wildrose Alliance leader Danielle Smith to seek candidacy in a Buffalo by-election).
– There had also been rumours that Lethbridge-East Liberal MLA Bridget Pastoor would run for Mayor in her city, she recently announced that she would not.
– The Liberal Party will be holding its annual convention in Edmonton – this year with a policy focus – and are slated to have political strategist and micro-celebrity Warren Kinsella as their keynote speaker.
– Community organizer Michael Janz has announced that he is running for the Edmonton Public School Board in Ward F. Over in Ward G, NDP Caucus Research Director Sarah Hoffman is running.
– Deron Bilous was nominated as the NDP candidate in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview last night. Supporter Denny Holmwood blogged about Mr. Bilous’ candidacy.
– Calgary-Northeast Conservative MP Devinder Shory has been named in a lawsuit alleging a $70-million mortgage scam at the Bank of Montreal.
– Ihor Broda was disbarred from the Law Society of Alberta. Mr. Broda ran unsuccessfully as the PC candidate in Edmonton-Castle Downs in 1997 and placed third in the race for Mayor of Edmonton in 1998.
– Premier Ed Stelmach‘s decision to suspend the fall Senate elections this year is being criticized by Red Deer Mayor Morris Flewwelling.
– While his cabinet tours the province, Premier Stelmach kicked off an overseas summer tour in Washington DC this week.
– The Pembina Institute is disputing Government of Alberta claims about provincial regulation of emissions generated from the oilsands.
– It is a bad week for private health care in Alberta. The Health Resources Centre (HRC) in Calgary and two private seniors homes in Red Deer have filed for bankruptcy protection. Alberta Health Services will pay the cost of the interim receiver for HRC, which could reach $250,000.
– And finally, in the “it’s about time” category: The city of Edmonton’s transportation committee approved a plan to fast-track the construction of three LRT lines.

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Danielle Smith Deron Bilous Kent Hehr Ray Martin Tony Vandermeer

alberta politics: state of the opposition.

They may have dropped to the fourth largest party in the Legislative Assembly in 2010, but the NDP are the first out of the starting gate to nominate a candidate for the 2012 election. The Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview NDP have scheduled their nomination for May 5, 2010. As far as this blogger knows, local teacher and 2008 Edmonton-Centre candidate Deron Bilous is the only candidate seeking the nomination. The constituency was represented by NDP MLA Ray Martin from 2004 until his narrow defeat to Tory Tony Vandermeer in 2008. Under the interim proposed boundary changes for 2012, the new Edmonton-Clareview constituency would reduce Mr. Vandermeer’s 2008 margin of victory down to 101 votes. With recent polls looking quite different than those of 2008, past results could mean very little in two years.

Word has it that a recent shake up in the NDP was not limited to their departing Executive Director. Some recent turnover on the board of executive officers has introduced some fresh blood onto the tiny party’s central bureau (since no table officers are listed on the NDP website, it is left to this kind of speculation). While they are reported to have raised $681,000 in 2009, insider sources have told me that slower economic times have contributed to a decline in individual donations in 2010, making staff layoffs likely.

Not too far behind in their search for candidates is the Liberal Party, who I have been told are hoping to nominate candidates in Edmonton-Decore, Edmonton-Glenora, Edmonton-McClung, Edmonton-Mill Woods, and Edmonton-Rutherford by Fall 2010. The Liberals are reported to have raised $768,000 in 2009, but are struggling to even hold their support in the polls, a problem that has some Liberals talking about a palace coup.

The Liberals may also be looking for a candidate to run in an upcoming by-election if rumors that one of two Calgary MLAs run for Mayor this Fall. A growing number of Liberals in Calgary are seriously talking about supporting a Mayoral bid by popular Calgary-Buffalo MLA Kent Hehr. One Liberal told me that Mr. Hehr “is seriously considering running for Mayor, and is currently arranging lunches with former Bronco heavy weights.” A by-election in Calgary-Buffalo would be an ideal opening for a new party with a potential candidate who has extensive experience organizing a winning election in that progressive downtown constituency.

Meanwhile, Wildrose Alliance leader Danielle Smith is taking advantage of not being burdened with the responsibility of holding a seat in the Assembly by delivering campaign style stump speeches across the province. Ms. Smith’s party remains strong in the polls and raised nearly $700,000 in 2009 (most since she became leader in October 2009.

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Brian Mason David Eggen Deron Bilous Lewis Cardinal Linda Duncan Rachel Notley

notes from the alberta ndp convention.

After spending one evening this week at the Wildrose Alliance leadership forum, I’ve spent a good part of this weekend at the other end of the political spectrum as a media observer at the 43rd annual Alberta NDP convention in Edmonton. I will post some more detailed thoughts soon, but until then, here are some notes from the convention:

– Nova Scotia NDP campaign manager Matt Hebb spoke on Friday evening about the electoral situation that led to the current NDP majority government led by Premier Darrell Dexter. I took some notes from Hebb’s talk and will include my thoughts in a future post.

– The Democratic Renewal Project has made their presence known at the convention. A policy resolution directing the party leader to initiative public negotiations with the leaders of the Alberta Liberals and Green Party to conclude a tactical electoral alliance has proposed by the Edmonton-Rutherford and Edmonton-Whitemud NDP Associations. It will be debated on Sunday morning and will likely be defeated.

– Leader Brian Mason took a direct shot at the DRP in his Saturday afternoon speech to delegates by challenging the assumption that vote splitting is not the reason the NDP does not have more MLAs in the Legislature. Mason announced intentions for the NDP to run a full slate of candidates and a plan to target resources on 12 ridings between now and the next election.

– Mason also announced the NDPs plans to hold a number of health care forums across Alberta starting on September 29 in Calgary and September 30 in Lethbridge. Other forums are expected to be held in Edmonton, Grande Prairie, and Fort McMurray.

– Edmonton-Strathcona MP Linda Duncan spoke about NGOs, the environment, and partisan politics at the Olga Blogheim luncheon this afternoon. Attendees included Mason, MLA Rachel Notley, former MLA David Eggen, federal candidate Lewis Cardinal, and provincial candidate Deron Bilous.

– According to delegates I’ve spoken to (and blogs I’ve read) there seems to be little movement behind a twitter account and blog supporting Notley to become NDP leader.

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