Tag: Edmonton-South West

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Alberta Politics

Wednesday Morining Alberta Candidate Nomination Update

Photo: Danielle Larivee, Tanya Fir, Lori Sigurdson, and Sonya Savage.

I took a short break from writing about Alberta politics while I was on vacation over the past few weeks, so I am catching up this morning on the latest Alberta nomination candidate news.

Fir defeats former Ontario MP Jeff Watson for UCP nomination in Calgary-Peigan

Jeff Watson Essex Calgary Peigan UCP
Jeff Watson

Tanya Fir defeated former Ontario Member of Parliament Jeff Watson and past Wildrose Party candidate Jeevan Mangat to secure the United Conservative Party nomination in Calgary-Peigan. Fir was backed by her campaign chair, Craig Chandler, a controversial conservative activist.

Quebec MP Maxime Bernier became momentarily involved in this nomination race when Fir’s campaign sent an email to their supporters claiming Maxine Bernier had endorsed his candidate. The real Bernier responded with an email disputing the claim and instead appeared to endorse his “good friend” Watson.

Larivee seeks re-election in Lesser Slave Lake

MLA Danielle Larivee is seeking the New Democratic Party nomination in Lesser Slave Lake. Larivee was first elected in 2015 unseating 7-term PC MLA Pearl Calahasen. She currently serves as Minister of Children’s Services and the Status of Women.

Former Liberal MLA runs for Alberta Party nomination

In Edmonton-South West, former Liberal Party MLA Mo Elsalhy is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Elsalhy was the MLA for Edmonton-McClung from 2004 and 2008 and ran for the party leadership in 2008. He attempted a comeback in 2012 but was unable unseat PC MLA David Xiao. During his time as MLA he served in various critic roles, including as Official Opposition critic for Justice and Public Safety, and Innovation and Science.

Here are some of the other recent updates to the list of candidates running for party nominations ahead of the 2019 Alberta provincial general election:

Randy Kerr UCP Calgary Beddington Climate Change Denial
Randy Kerr

Calgary-Beddington – Randy Kerr defeated Josephine Pon to win the UCP nomination. Kerr was recently the focus of media attention when it was discovered he had made several social media postings that cast doubt on the legitimacy of climate change.

Calgary-East – Andre Chabot and Issa Mossa are the latest candidates to enter this UCP nomination contest. Chabot was a Calgary city councillor from 2005 to 2017. He placed a distant third in the October 2017 mayoral election, earning 3.08 percent of the vote. Mossa ran for Calgary city council in Ward 10 in 2017.

Calgary-Falconridge – Christopher Steeves is seeking the UCP nomination. He served as a councillor with the City of Chestermere from 2005 to 2017.

Calgary-Fish Creek – Cyndy Morin has withdrawn from the UCP nomination contest in this south Calgary district and endorsed fellow candidate Cindy Ross over incumbent MLA Richard Gotfried. Morin had already previously withdrawn from the UCP nomination contest in Calgary-North West before the nomination vote was held in that district.

Morin noted on her Facebook page that she intends to “bring a defamation suit against the NDP for blatantly publishing what they refer to as facts.” The NDP issued a press release days ago “asking the Election Commissioner of Alberta to investigate UCP nomination candidate Cyndy Morin, running in Calgary-Fish Creek, for accepting and promoting corporate donations to her campaign.”

Calgary-North – Devin Green is seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-North East – Rajan Sawhney is seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-North West – Sonya Savage defeated Jennele Giong and Cam Khan to win the UCP nomination. Savage is a pipeline lobbyist and served as the president of the Progressive Conservative Party youth wing in 1992.

Calgary-Peigan – Herjinder Saran is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.

David Shepherd NDP MLA Edmonton City Centre
David Shepherd

Edmonton-City Centre – MLA David Shepherd is seeking the NDP nomination, which is scheduled to take place on September 6, 2018. Shepherd was first elected in 2015 and in 2017 was voted “MLA to watch in 2018” in the Best of Alberta Politics survey. Stephen Hammerschmidt is the latest candidate to enter the UCP nomination contest in this district.

Edmonton-Glenora – Marjorie Newman, David Salopek, and former Edmonton-Riverview PC MLA Steve Young are seeking the UCP nomination. A nomination meeting will be held on August 15, 2018.

Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood – Atul Ranade is seeking the UCP nomination. Ranade previously withdrew from UCP nomination contests in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview and Edmonton-South.

Edmonton-Manning – Dakota Drouillard is seeking the UCP nomination. Jitender Sahni has withdrawn from the Alberta Party nomination contest.

Edmonton-Meadows –  Amrit Matharu has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate.

Edmonton-Mill Woods – James Moore is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.

Edmonton-Riverview – MLA Lori Sigurdson has been nominated as the NDP candidate in this district. She was first elected in 2015 and currently serves as Minister of Seniors and Housing.

Edmonton-South – Inderdeep Sandhu is seeking the UCP nomination.

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville– Marvin Olsen is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.

Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland: Don McCargar has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate. McCargar made headlines in 2016 when he put his $7.5 million Parkland County mansion for sale. The palatial home included a sauna, wet bar, six-vehicle garage, and a car wash, as well as herringbone marble tiles covering the floors and hand-painted dome murals adorning the ceilings.

Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright – Blake Prior is seeking the UCP nomination. Prior was the Progressive Conservative candidate in the Battle River-Wainwright district in the 2015 election.

West Yellowhead– Stuart Taylor is seeking the UCP nomination. Taylor was the Wildrose Party candidate in this district in the 2012 and 2015 elections. He is a former Hinton town councillor and was defeated in his bid for mayor in 2017.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

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Alberta Politics

Janis Irwin running for NDP nomination in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood, Daniel Williams wins UCP contest in Peace River

More than 200 people packed into the Bellevue Community Hall tonight to support Janis Irwin’s bid for the NDP nomination in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood.
More than 200 people packed into the Bellevue Community Hall tonight to support Janis Irwin’s bid for the NDP nomination in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood.

Photo: More than 200 people packed into the Bellevue Community Hall tonight to support Janis Irwin’s bid for the NDP nomination in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood.

Janis Irwin launched her campaign for the New Democratic Party nomination in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood this evening at the Bellevue Community Hall. Irwin is a community advocate and educator, and she was the federal NDP candidate in Edmonton-Griesbach in the 2015 election, where she placed a strong-second behind Conservative candidate Kerry Diotte.

Janis Irwin NDP Edmonton Highlands Norwood
Janis Irwin (source: Facebook)

Her campaign launched was attended by more than 200 supporters, including Edmonton-Ellerslie MLA Rod Loyola, and public school trustees Bridget Stirling and Michael Janz.

Irwin currently works as a Director of Stakeholder Relations in the Office of the Premier.

The area has been represented by outgoing NDP MLA Brian Mason since 2000 and and is considered to be one of the strongest NDP-voting districts in Alberta. Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood makes up the Orange Core of the federal Edmonton-Griesbach district. (Note: I live in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood, so I have a particularly keen interest in this nomination contest).

A nomination meeting has been scheduled for October 23, 2018 at the Alberta Avenue Community Hall.

Former Kenney staffer nominated in Peace River

Daniel Williams UCP Peace River
Daniel Williams

Daniel Williams defeated Mackenzie County deputy reeve Lisa Wardley to secure the UCP nomination in this sprawling northern Alberta district. Williams worked as a political staffer for Jason Kenney in Ottawa before returning to Alberta to seek the UCP nomination in Peace River.

Three candidates dropped out of what had been a 5-candidate race in June and July, and Wardley raised concerns that the locations and hours of nomination votes in this large rural district would make it difficult for UCP members not living in the main urban centres to participate in the vote.

Eleventh MLA announces retirement in 2019

NDP MLA Jamie Kleinsteuber announced on social media that he will not seeking re-election in 2019. Kleinsteuber was first elected in 2015 in Calgary-Northern Hills and in 2019 the district is being redistribtued between the Calgary-Beddington, Calgary-North and Calgary-North East districts.

https://www.facebook.com/andpcalgarynorthernhills/posts/2095165190804060

Kleinsteuber becomes the eleventh MLA to announce plans not to seek re-election in 2019. The list of retiring MLAs now include five UCP MLAs, four NDP MLAs, one Liberal MLA and one Independent MLA.

Bozo-Eruptions continue to haunt UCP

The UCP has been striken with a series of embarrassing bozo-eruptions over the past few weeks. Most recently are Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin nomination candidate Sandra Kim‘s Facebook comments about same-sex marriage and Calgary-Glenmore nomination candidate Maureen Zelmer’s Facebook comments about Muslims. Kim is endorsed by UCP MLAs Leela Aheer and Rick Strankman.

Here are some of the latest updates to the list of candidates running for party nominations ahead of the 2019 Alberta provincial general election:

Calgary-Mountain View – Liberal Party leader David Khan has been nominated as his party’s candidate in this north central Calgary district. This area has been represented by Liberal MLA David Swann since 2004. Swann is not seeking re-election.

Calgary-North East – Mandeep Shergill is seeking the UCP nomination. Shergill works as a Constituency Assistant to Calgary-Greenway MLA Prab Gill, who was seeking the UCP nomination in this district before he resigned from the UCP caucus following allegations of ballot-stuffing at the local UCP association’s annual general meeting.

Calgary-Peigan – Three candidates are seeking the UCP nomination in a vote scheduled for August 2, 2018: Former Ontario MP Jeff Watson (who moved to Alberta in November 2016 and works as an assistant to Calgary-Hays UCP MLA Ric McIver), Tanya Fir (who is supported by Craig Chandler), and Jeevan Mangat (who ran for the Wildrose Party in Calgary-Fort in the 2012 and 2015 elections).

Edmonton-Castle Downs – Ed Ammar defeated Arthur Hagen and Gennadi Boitchenko to win the UCP nomination. Ammar is a real estate agent and served as the first chairman of the UCP interim board following the formation of the party in 2017. Ammar was the Liberal Party candidate in Edmonton-Decore in the 2012 election and president of the Wildrose Party association in Edmonton-Castle Downs in 2016.

Edmonton-City Centre – Lily Le is the third candidate seeking the UCP nomination in this downtown Edmonton district.

Edmonton-Mill Woods – Abdi Bakal is seeking the Liberal Party nomination in this southeast Edmonton district. This area was represented by Liberal MLAs Don Massey from 1993 to 2004 and Weslyn Mather from 2004 to 2008. Tariq Chaudhry is seeking the UCP nomination. Chaudhry is the owner of the Maharaja Banquet Hall.

Edmonton-South – Pramod Kumar defeated Enayat Aminzadah to win the Alberta Party nomination. William Farrell becomes the fifth candidate to join the UCP nomination contest.

Edmonton-South West – Former PC MLA Sohail Quadri is seeking the UCP nomination. Quadri previously represented Edmonton-Mill Woods from 2012 to 2015. From 2014 to 2015, he served as Legislative Secretary to Premier Jim Prentice. He was unseated in 2015 by NDP candidate Christina Gray.

Grande Prairie – Tracy Allard was acclaimed as the UCP canddiate. School trustee John Lehners withdrew from the contest after serious car accident. According to the Grande Prairie Daily Herald Tribune, Lehners’s brush with death made politics seem less important. “When I was hanging upside down I wasn’t thinking about running for MLA. I’m thinking about my dog, I’m thinking about my family, I’m thinking about my friends and what I’m going to do next and ‘Thank God I’m alive,’” Lehners told the Daily Herald Tribune.

Lacombe-Ponoka -Lacombe City Councillor Thalia Hibbs is seeking the UCP nomination in this central Alberta district. The district is currently represented by UCP MLA Ron Orr, who was elected as a Wildrose MLA in 2015.

Lesser Slave Lake– Darryl Boisson is seeking the UCP nomination in this sprawling northern Alberta district. This will be Boisson’s third attempt at provincial office in this district. He was the Wildrose Party candidate in Lesser Slave Lake in the 2012 and 2015 elections.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

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Alberta Candidate Nomination Updates: 2 NDP cabinet ministers announce re-election and 3 more UCP MLAs plan to retire.

Oneil Carlier, Shannon Phillips, Sonya Savage, and Tyler Shandro.
Oneil Carlier, Shannon Phillips, Sonya Savage, and Tyler Shandro.

Photo: Oneil Carlier, Shannon Phillips, Sonya Savage, and Tyler Shandro.

Nominations are picking up speed.

Three more United Conservative Party MLAs have announced their plans to retire when the next election is called. Grande Prairie-Wapiti MLA Wayne Drysdale, Livingstone-Macleod MLA Pat Stier and Little Bow MLA David Schneider will not seek re-election in 2019.

Schneider changed his minds after previously announcing plans to seek re-election in the new Cardston-Siksika district. His entry into that contest forced Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Grant Hunter to seek the UCP nomination in the neighbouring Taber-Warner district, even though he lives in Cardston. It is not yet known whether Hunter will now run for the UCP nomination in what will soon be his home district of Cardston-Siksika.

Environment and Parks Minister Shannon Phillips has filed her intentions with Elections Alberta to run for the New Democratic Party nomination in Lethbridge-West. Phillips was first elected as MLA in 2015 with 59 percent of the vote.

Also running for re-election is Agriculture and Forestry Minister Oneil Carlier, who told XM105FM that he will seek the NDP nomination in the newly redrawn Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland district. Carlier currently represents the Whitecourt-Ste. Anne district, which will no longer exist when the next election is called.

Independent MLA Derek Fildebrandt is agitating in Chestermere-Strathmore. After being banned from rejoining the UCP caucus in February 2, 2018 after a string of embarrassing scandals, Fildebrandt has essentially accused his former party of being afraid of an open nomination contest in the new district. The theatrical former finance critic accused the UCP of “Trudeau-style affirmative action” for not allowing him to run against popular Chestermere-Rockyview UCP MLA Leela Aheer.

As first reported on this blog on April 7, 2018, Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Jane Stroud will seek the NDP nomination in the upcoming Fort McMurray-Conklin by-election. The UCP have set May 1, 2018 as the date for their candidate nomination vote.

In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, candidate Joel Loh was not allowed to join the UCP nomination contest and has since endorsed Red Deer County councillor Christine Moore.  UCP members in that district will select a candidate in a vote at the end of the month.

Here are some of the other nomination updates from around the province:

Calgary-Acadia – Lawyer Tyler Shandro is seeking the UCP nomination. Astute followers of Alberta politics might recall Shandro’s role in the EdStelmach.ca incident. Good luck and govern yourself accordingly, Tyler.

Calgary-Currie – Amoriza Gunnink is seeking the UCP nomination. Gunnink is the founder of the Kinderhouse Preschool. Tony Norman is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Norman was his party’s candidate in this district in the 2015 election.

Calgary-East – Pradeep Singh is seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-Falconridge – Happy Mann is seeking the UCP nomination. Mann was the Wildrose Party candidate in Calgary-McCall in the 2015 election and the 2012 Wildrose Party candidate in Calgary-Cross.

Calgary-Glenmore – Maureen Zelmer is seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-Mountain View – Dean Brawn is seeking the UCP nomination. Brawn was a candidate for Calgary City Council in Ward 7 in the 2017 municipal election.

Calgary-North West – Sonya Savage is seeking the UCP nomination. She is the Senior Director of Policy & Regulatory Affairs at Canadian Energy Pipeline Association. In 2011, she served as co-chair of Rick Orman’s campaign for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party.

Drumheller-Stettler – MLA Rick Strankman is seeking the UCP nomination. Strankman was first elected in 2012 as a Wildrose Party candidate.

Edmonton-Ellerslie – Yash Sharma is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Sharma is the Publisher of the Asia Tribune and producer of Harmony TV and in 2016 he was one of 32 candidates to run in the Ward 12 by-election.

Edmonton-South West – Kevin Greco is seeking the UCP nomination.

Lethbridge-East – Brian Litchfield is seeking the UCP nomination.

Morinville-St. Albert – Dale Nally and Trina Jones have entered the UCP nomination contest. Jones is currently serving as Deputy Mayor of the Town of Legal

Sherwood Park – Jordan Walker is seeking the UCP nomination. Walker and Strathcona-Sherwood Park nomination candidate Nate Glubish are being endorsed by Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan Member of Parliament Garnett Genuis, who is hosting a meet and greet for the two candidates on April 27, 2018. Genius was the 2012 Wildrose Party candidate in Sherwood Park.

Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright – Two-time Wildrose Party candidate Danny Hozack is seeking the UCP nomination. Hozack earned 37 percent of the vote in 2012 and 33 percent of the vote in 2015. He is seeking the nomination against Garth Rowswell, his campaign manager from the 2015 election.

West Yellowhead – MLA Eric Rosendahl is seeking the NDP nomination. He was first elected in 2015 with 39 percent of the vote.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list.

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My response to the Interim Report of the Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission

Alberta Legislative Assembly Edmonton

Earlier this year I submitted a series of recommendations to Alberta’s Electoral Boundaries Commission, the appointed body tasked with redrawing Alberta’s provincial electoral districts for the next election. The Commission released an interim report in May 2017 and will be holding a series of public hearings in communities across Alberta in the coming weeks. The Commission will submit its final report on October 31, 2017.

Here are the recommendations I submitted to the commission on July 16, 2017 in response to the interim report:

Dear Commissioners,

My name is David Cournoyer, I am a voter living in the Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood constituency. I have followed the electoral boundary redistribution process for a number of years and am very interested in the process.

Proposed Alberta boundaries

I would like to thank the Commissioners for their work in this important process. The act of redistributing electoral boundaries is a challenging process and not one that should be taken lightly. In particular, this Commission faces the challenge of redistributing Alberta’s electoral boundaries without having the advantage of increasing the number of districts.

I have included below my recommendations in response to the interim report released by the Commission in May 2017:

Population

I believe this Commission can improve the population balance proposed in the interim report. The previous Commission did a good job keeping the population of most electoral districts within ten percent of the provincial average population per electoral district.

I recommend that the Commission attempt to keep districts within ten percent, and ideally within five percent, above or below the provincial average population per electoral district.

New Boundaries

I recommend the Commission consider the following amendments to the proposed districts included in the interim report:

Proposed Edmonton boundaries

Edmonton-East, Edmonton-North West, Edmonton-South, Edmonton-South West and Edmonton-West Henday: The Commission should reconsider using these geographic directional names for proposed districts, as they could cause confusion among voters. The names of the proposed districts are not necessarily reflective of their geographical areas. For example: The proposed Edmonton-East district is located west of the Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview and Edmonton-Manning districts and much of Edmonton-Northwest is located south of Edmonton-Castle Downs and east of Edmonton-West Henday.

Edmonton-Mill Woods-East and Edmonton-Mill Woods-West: I believe the names in these proposed districts may cause some unnecessary confusion among voters. I recommend the names of these proposed districts be changed.

Fort Saskatchewan-St. Paul, Vermilion-Lloydminster, and Stettler-Wainwright: These proposed district span from the Edmonton Metro area to the Alberta-Saskatchewan boundary, with the first two resembling a shelter-belt rather than a constituency representing communities of common interest. The Commission should consider redistributing the proposed districts in a way that would not divide communities along such oddly drawn east-west boundaries.

Highwood: It should be noted that under this proposed district, the Highwood River is no longer located within the Highwood constituency, for which I believe it may be named.

St. Albert-Redwater: The population of the City of St. Albert is too large to warrant the creation of two districts within the municipal boundaries. Instead of expanding a second St. Albert district north to Redwater, Smoky Lake, Buffalo Lake and Kikino, I recommend the creation of a district that would include St. Albert and the municipalities of Sturgeon County, Morinville, Legal, Cardiff, Bon Accord and Gibbons.

St. Anne-Stony Plain: I expect this has already been brought to the attention of the Commission, but the correct spelling is Ste. Anne, in reference to Lac Ste. Anne. It is my recommendation that the name of the proposed district, if it remains in the final report of the Commission, be renamed Lac Ste. Anne-Stony Plain.

Wetaskiwin-Camrose: I commend the Commission for their decision in the interim report to recommend the creation of a fully contiguous proposed district of Wetaskiwin-Camrose.

Thank you to the Commissioners for the opportunity to respond to the interim report. I wish you good luck in months ahead as you consider the feedback you have received in order to create the final report of this electoral boundary review.

 

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Tick, tock, tick, tock. Opposition to Daylight Saving Time in Alberta since the 1970s.

Thomas Dang MLA
Thomas Dang

Edmonton-South West MLA Thomas Dang announced last week that he plans to introduce a private members’ bill into Alberta’s Legislative Assembly in the 2017 spring session that would abolish Daylight Saving Time. The biannual practice of turning the clock forward by one hour in the spring and back one hour in the fall has a long and controversial history in Alberta.

DST was introduced in Alberta after a 1971 province-wide plebiscite resulted in 386,846 votes (61.47%) in favour of adopting the change. This followed the first plebiscite, which took place in 1967 and resulted in a narrow defeat for the Daylight Saving Time change (248,680, or 51.25%, against the change).

While the time change is anecdotally unpopular, a CBC report suggested that lobbyists representing big-box stores, sporting and recreational goods manufacturers, barbecue and charcoal retailers, shopping malls and golf courses remain big supporters of Daylight Saving Time.

National Post columnist Colby Cosh chimed in today, taking a totally reasonable if it’s not broken why fix it? approach to the debate.

Since it was introduced in Alberta, there have been a handful of attempts by opposition critics and government backbenchers to abolish the practice or at least raise concerns about Daylight Saving Time.

A newspaper advertisement promoting DST in 1967.
A newspaper advertisement opposing DST in 1967.

In 1978, Spirit River-Fairview MLA and New Democratic Party leader Grant Notley tabled a petition in the Assembly from 36 constituents “living in an area of the province that comes closest to having the midnight sun,” which called on the government to hold a referendum or plebiscite at the time of the next provincial election.

In 1983, Walt Buck, an Independent former Social Credit MLA representing the Clover Bar constituency, asked in Question Period whether the Progressive Conservative government “if any studies have been done as to the feasibility of leaving daylight saving time year-round?”

Premier Peter Lougheed was quick on his feet with a non-response to Buck, “I have to admit I haven’t had a question on that subject since possibly 1972, and I would be somewhat concerned to ask the Minister of Agriculture or the Minister of Economic Development. So the question is quite properly directed to me. I’ll have to take consideration and decide who will be the fortunate person to whom I delegate the answer.”

Lacombe PC MLA Ronald Moore introduced private members’ bill in 1991 and 1992 which proposed the adoption of daylight saving time year-round. Both bills were introduced into the Assembly but did not make it further than first reading and were not debated.

In March 2015, Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville PC MLA Jacquie Fenske tabled a petition organized by Ruby Kassian calling for an end to Daylight Saving Time. More than year later, in December 2016, Vermilion-Lloydminster PC MLA Richard Starke tabled a petition urging the government to introduce legislation to repeal the Daylight Saving Time Act and require the observance of Central Standard Time in Alberta.

Daylight Saving Time now longer than it was in 1972

The first Daylight Saving Time was observed in Alberta at 2:00 a.m. on the last Sunday in April in 1972.

In 1987, Attorney General Jim Horsman introduced Bill 2: Daylight Saving Time Amendment Act, which moved the start of Daylight Saving Time to first Sunday in April.

In 2006, Justice Minister Ron Stevens introduced Bill 4: Daylight Saving Time Amendment Act, which moved the start of Daylight Saving Time to the second Sunday in March and ending the first Sunday in November. This was in response to the same change made by the United States Congress in 2005.

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Ten Alberta MLAs to watch in 2017

Alberta MLAs to watch in 2017: Shannon Phillips, Sarah Hoffman, Sandra Jansen, Derek Fildebrandt, Brian Jean, RIchard Starke, Thomas Dang, Christina Gray, Jessica Littlewood, and David Swann.
Alberta MLAs to watch in 2017: Shannon Phillips, Sarah Hoffman, Sandra Jansen, Derek Fildebrandt, Brian Jean, RIchard Starke, Thomas Dang, Christina Gray, Jessica Littlewood, and David Swann.

Despite its past reputation, Alberta politics has become extraordinarily unpredictable over the past decade. This makes forecasting the future a very tricky business for political pundits. As is tradition on this blog, each December I sit down by the open fire and pen a list of Alberta MLAs that I will be watching closely in the new year. Beyond the obvious choices, like Premier Rachel Notley or Finance Minister Joe Ceci, I try to look into the government and opposition benches to see who could make the news next year.

Here is my list of MLAs to watch in 2017:

Shannon Phillips (Lethbridge-West): The implementation of Alberta’s much lauded and much derided Climate Leadership Plan will be central to the government’s agenda in 2017. Navigating attacks against the incoming carbon tax, which led to the approval of two oil pipelines, will be critical to the success of the plan. Environment and Parks Minister Shannon Phillips will also have to navigate the politics of replacing Alberta’s dirty coal fired power plants with renewable electricity generation, which could include potentially controversial hydro electric dam projects in northern Alberta.

Sarah Hoffman (Edmonton-Glenora): Now as Alberta’s Deputy Premier, Sarah Hoffman continues to prove that she is one of the toughest MLAs in the government benches. She has managed to navigate her role as Health Minister, a large and challenging department, and continue to serve as Ms. Notley’s chief political lieutenant. As I noted in last year’s list, she is a contender for strongest member of cabinet, and I place her in the “future Premier material” category.

Sandra Jansen (Calgary-North West): The former Progressive Conservative cabinet minister who crossed the floor to join the NDP in November 2016 could find herself with a cabinet post in 2017. Speculation is rampant that Ms. Notley could shuffle the cabinet early next year. Appointing Ms. Jansen as Minister of Energy could help shore up NDP support in Calgary, especially with the recent approval of two oil pipelines. Or perhaps she could replace embattled Human Services Minister Irfan Sabir?

Derek Fildebrandt (Strathmore-Brooks): The outspoken attack dog of the Official Opposition is unleashed, as was demonstrated by his rant against “political correctness” at a recent event organized by Ezra Levant’s fringe advocacy group. After being muzzled by Wildrose leader Brian Jean in early 2016, Mr. Fildebrandt is already feeling empowered in 2017 by the rise of Jason Kenney in Alberta’s Conservative movement. Like Mr. Kenney, he is a former Alberta Director for the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and a rigid conservative ideologue. Expect Mr. Fildebrandt to be one of Mr. Kenney’s chief lieutenants in his bid to merge the PC Party with the Wildrose Party in 2017.

Brian Jean (Fort McMurray-Conklin): What lies ahead for the leader of the Wildrose Party? After Mr. Kenney succeeds in his hostile takeover of the PC Party leadership in May 2017, Mr. Jean might be the only obstacle standing in the way of the two parties merging. He saved his party from the electoral abyss in 2015, but the well-meaning Fort McMurray politician will face significant pressure from his party and the federal Conservatives to step aside to let Mr. Kenney take over. It seems unlikely that his leadership will survive 2017.

Richard Starke (Vermilion-Lloydminster): If PC Party members want to preserve their party, rallying behind the MLA for Vermilion-Lloydminster might be their only, and last, chance. Standing in opposition to Mr. Kenney’s hostile takeover, Mr. Starke appears to understand that his party’s success over the past four decades was not based in rigid ideology but in the ability to build a big tent that invited conservatives, moderates and liberals to the table. If he cannot win, then 2017 will be the final year for the PC Party in Alberta.

Thomas Dang (Edmonton-South West): Alberta’s youngest MLA could become known as the Daylight Saving Time Slayer in 2017. He announced this week that he plans to introduce a private members’ bill in the spring session of Assembly that would abolish the unpopular annual time-shift.

Christina Gray (Edmonton-Mill Woods): Labour Minister Christina Gray is not the most high profile cabinet minister but she is charged with steering some of the NDP government’s important policy changes. This fall she introduced reforms to Alberta’s electoral finance laws, and next year she will face the government’s much-needed review of the Workers’ Compensation Board, expected changes to the Labour Relations Code and implementation of Occupational Health & Safety rules under the controversial Bill 6 farm safety law.

Jessica Littlewood (Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville): She had a rough time while serving as chair of the Special Select Committee on Ethics and Accountability, but the trial by fire was more than most of her rookie MLA colleagues have experienced. Despite the committee fumble, Ms. Littlewood stands out as a well-spoken and articulate member of the NDP caucus. A junior cabinet position could be in her future.

David Swann (Calgary-Mountain View): The ernest and hardworking interim leader of the Liberal Party will step down from that role in June 2017. It is not clear who will succeed Dr. Swann, who is currently Alberta’s only Liberal MLA (he is serving his fourth-term as MLA for Calgary-Mountain View), which makes it difficult to predict what his role will be in a Liberal Party led by someone from outside the Legislature.

Compare this list of Alberta MLAs to watch to previous lists from 2016, 2015 and 2014.

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Answers to the Alberta Politics crossword

Listed below are the answers to yesterday’s Alberta Politics crossword. In response to a friendly challenge from Edmonton-South West MLA Thomas Dang, check this blog next week for the Dang Hard Edition of the Alberta Politics crossword.

Across

1. Rick Strankman

3. Public Revenue

4. Brian Topp

6. Leela Aheer

7. Prasad Panda

8. Orr

10. Food

12. Nine AM

14. Difficult

15. Rona Ambrose

16. Sky Palace

18. MMXV

19. Ceci

20. Farm Workers

21. Kent Hehr

22. Elbow

24. Notley

25. Red

29. City

30. Brian Mason

31. Ric McIver

32. Thomas Dang

33. Richard Gotfried

34. Littlewood

35. Shaye Anderson

Down

2. Shannon Phillips

5. Deborah Drever

9. Robin Campbell

11. Luff

13. Olds

14. Democracy

17. Corporate Taxes

23. Sohi

26. David Swann

27. Obama

28. Goehring

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NDP should amend more than just timelines for Alberta’s next electoral map

Alberta’s Chief Electoral Officer Glen Resler spoke to the Standing Committee on Legislative Offices on September 24, 2015 about legislated timelines that require an Electoral Boundaries Commission be appointed to redraw the provincial electoral districts.

Because the 2015 provincial election was called one year earlier than Alberta’s (meaningless) fixed election date calls for the timelines now present a difficult challenge for Elections Alberta.

Section 5 of the Electoral Boundaries Commission Act states that a commission be appointed following every second election and a minimum of eight years and maximum of ten years since the previous commission. Two elections have been held since the last commission was appointed only six years ago.

The current legislative timeline, according to Mr. Resler, would not give the commission and Elections Alberta staff enough time to prepare for the next election, scheduled to be held in early 2019.

Mr. Resler told the committee that he is recommending the government introduce an amendment to the Act to shorten the timeline so a commission can be appointed before the eight year minimum period.

He told the MLA committee that he is proposing the government amend the law to allow the next commission be appointed by September 2016 in order to have a final report prepared for approval by the Legislative Assembly in the fall of 2017. This timeline would allow Elections Alberta enough time to prepare the new electoral districts for the 2019 provincial election.

If and when Justice Minister Kathleen Ganley introduces amendments to the timeline, the government should also change other sections in the Electoral Boundaries Commission Act that would create a more fair process of drawing electoral districts.

Under the current law, the commission is comprised of two appointees nominated by the Premier and two appointees nominated by the Leader of the Official Opposition, and a “neutral” chairperson.

Ms. Ganley should recommend that the commission instead be made up of non-partisan judicial appointees made by the Speaker of the Assembly, similar to the commissions appointed to draw the federal electoral boundaries.

The government should also amend the section of the Act that lays out guidelines for the commission to redraw Alberta’s electoral districts.

Section 15 of the Act allows for the population of a proposed electoral division to be 25 percent above or 25 percent below the average population of all the proposed electoral divisions.

While many other provinces allow for a 25 percent variation, some provinces allow smaller deviations. Newfoundland and Labrador and Manitoba’s southern districts follow a general rule for deviation of up to 10 percent. Saskatchewan and New Brunswick allow for a 5 percent general deviation.

The government could easily amend the law to allow the population of each of the new electoral divisions to be closer to the provincial average, perhaps within plus or minus 10 percent or 5 percent deviation.

This Act also allows the commission to recommend up to 4 large electoral divisions with a population that is as much as 50 percent below the average population of all the proposed electoral divisions.

These conditions introduced in 1990 are largely arbitrary, allowing the 50 percent deviation for constituencies which exceed 20,000 square kilometres, are in excess of 150 kilometres away from the Legislative Assembly Building, include no town larger than 8,000 people (the original bill required no town larger than 4,000 people), include an Indian reserve or Métis settlement and share a border with the provincial boundary.

The government could reduce the 50 percent deviation to 25 percent and direct increased funding for MLAs representing large electoral districts for the cost of multiple constituency offices and an increased travel/outreach budget. In 2015, the technology exists to aid MLAs to communicate, converse, and represent Albertans in large electoral districts.

Two rural constituencies currently fall under the 50 percent exception: Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley with 16,392 voters and Lesser Slave Lake with 19,062 voters. Other rural constituencies that have a notable lower than average population of voters include Peace River with 20,464, Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills with 23,479 voters and Cardston-Taber-Warner with 23,918 voters.

The average voting population of a constituency in Calgary and Edmonton is more than 33,000 voters. Some urban constituencies, like Calgary-South East with 46,871 voters and Edmonton-South West with 41,230 voters, have grown considerably since the last redistribution.

Our provincial population has grown considerably since the last commission was appointed to redraw Alberta’s electoral boundaries in 2009. The new government should not just amend the timelines for the next commission, it should amend the Act to empower the commission to draw fair electoral boundaries that will ensure more effective representation and equality of the voting power in Alberta.

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Alberta Election 2015 By The Numbers

Alberta's Legislature

Date of Alberta’s 2015 election: May 5, 2015
Date of Alberta’s 2016 fixed-election: Between March 1 and May 31, 2016
Total number of votes cast in the 2015 election (unofficial results): 1,486,877
Total number of votes cast in the 2012 election (unofficial results): 1,290,223
Constituency with highest voter turnout: 68.07% in Drayton Valley-Devon
Constituency with lowest voter turnout: 40.8% in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
Total number of re-elected MLAs: 13*
Total number of new MLAs: 74*
Newly elected MLAs in the Government Caucus: 49
Newly elected MLAs in the Opposition: 20 (18 Wildrose, 1 PC and 1 Alberta Party)
Number of women in the Government Caucus: 25* out of 53 MLAs (47% of the NDP Caucus)
Number of women in the Opposition Caucuses: 3*
Number of MLA resignations since May 5, 2015: 1 (Jim Prentice in Calgary-Foothills)
Number of tied races: 1 (*Calgary-Glenmore, pending a recount)
Most votes for a candidate: 15,350 for the NDP’s Marlin Schmidt in Edmonton-Gold Bar
Highest percentage of votes for a candidate: 82.4% for Rachel Notley in Edmonton-Strathcona
Longest serving re-elected MLA: Brian Mason, NDP MLA for Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood first elected in 2000.
Closest race that is not a tie: Little Bow with a margin of 12 votes (recount pending)
Youngest elected MLA: Thomas Dang, 20 years old, was elected in Edmonton-South West.
Total vote for the NDP in 2015: 603,461
Total vote for the NDP in 2012: 126,752
Total vote for the Wildrose Party in 2015: 360,101
Total vote for the Wildrose Party in 2012: 442,429
Total vote for the PC Party in 2015: 412,955
Total vote for the PC Party in 2012: 567,312
Total vote for the Liberal Party in 2015: 62,171
Total vote for the Liberal Party in 2012: 127,645
Total vote for the Alberta Party in 2015: 33,867
Total vote for the Alberta Party in 2012: 16,959

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Some controversy with your candidate nomination update

Byron-Nelson-Cristina-Stasia-Chris-Labossiere-Marie-Renaud-Alberta-Election
Calgary-Bow PC candidate Byron Nelson, Edmonton-Gold Bar Alberta Party candidate Cristina Stasia, Edmonton-Rutherford PC candidate Chris Labossiere, and St. Albert NDP candidate Marie Renaud.

As the Progressive Conservative Party rushes towards an early election call, party officials are investigating nomination irregularities and allegations of bribery, reports Metro Edmonton. According to Metro, the PC Party is investigating the process that led to the acclamation of MLA Naresh Bhardwaj as the PC candidate in Edmonton-Ellerslie. Allegations of nomination irregularities have been raised by PC members in Edmonton-Decore and Bonnyville-Cold Lake.

But, as controversy surrounds some nomination contests, all parties continue to rush through the nomination process. The following list are the latest updates to the growing list of Alberta Election 2015 candidates:

Map of nominated and acclaimed PC candidates (as of March 11, 2015).
Map of nominated and acclaimed PC candidates (as of March 11, 2015).

Airdrie: Chris Noble is seeking the NDP nomination.

Athabasca-Redwater-Sturgeon: Colin Piquette, son of former New Democratic Party MLA Leo Piquette, is acclaimed as the NDP candidate. Mr. Piquette was the 2001 NDP candidate in the former Athabasca-Wabasca constituency, where he placed third with 9.5% of the vote.

Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock: Tristin Turner is seeking the NDP nomination. In 2014, Mr. Turner was a recipient of a Top 30 Under 30 award through the Alberta Council for Global Cooperation.

Calgary-Bow: Lawyer Byron Nelson defeated past city council candidate Chris Harper in a 214 to 136 vote for the Progressive Conservative nomination. Recently graduated Law student Alyx Nanji was Mr. Nelson’s campaign manager.

Map of nominated and acclaimed NDP candidates (as of March 11, 2015).
Map of nominated and acclaimed NDP candidates (as of March 11, 2015).

Calgary-Cross: Some north east Calgary PCs are worried that former Calgary Police Chief Rick Hanson will be appointed as their party’s candidate in Calgary-Cross, despite six other candidates being in the race. As I wrote on February 25, 2015, it is widely speculated that Premier Jim Prentice could appoint Mr. Hanson as the PC candidate in this constituency.

Calgary-Currie: Shelley Wark-Martyn resigned as President of the Liberal Party today and is rumoured  to be preparing to run for her party in this constituency. I am told that an odd rule in the Liberal Party bylaws does not permit party office holders from also being candidates. Ms. Wark-Martyn served as an Ontario New Democratic MPP from 1990 to 1995, during which time she also served as a cabinet minister in Premier Bob Rae‘s government.

Map of nominated and acclaimed Wildrose candidates (as of March 11, 2015).
Map of nominated and acclaimed Wildrose candidates (as of March 11, 2015).

Calgary Elbow: Educator and storyteller Catherine Wellburn is seeking the NDP nomination, which is scheduled for March 19, 2015.

Calgary-Fort: Vic Goosen has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate.

Calgary-Glenmore: Terry Lo is the Alberta Party candidate and Anam Kazim is seeking the NDP nomination, scheduled for March 19, 2015.

Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill: Incumbent MLA Neil Brown defeated two challengers to secure the PC nomination. Community Shuttle Operator and University of Calgary Political Science Graduate Student Ezra Voth is the nominated Alberta Party candidate.

Map of nominated and acclaimed Alberta Party candidates (as of March 11, 2015).
Map of nominated and acclaimed Alberta Party candidates (as of March 11, 2015).

Calgary-Shaw: Evert Smith has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate.

Calgary-Varsity: Jeremy Mroch is the nominated Alberta Party candidate. According to his website, he has “most recently been involved at the executive level in the development and commercialization of lower environmental impact energy and oilfield greening technologies.”

Cypress-Medicine Hat: Former Cypress County Reeve Bob Olson has announced he’s seeking the PC nomination for this southeast rural constituency. Also in the race is Danny Fieldberg. Former PC MLA Len Mitzel announced he will not seek the nomination.

Map of nominated and acclaimed Liberal Party candidates (as of March 11, 2015).
Map of nominated and acclaimed Liberal Party candidates (as of March 11, 2015).

Drayton Valley-Devon: Katherine Swampy is seeking the NDP nomination.

Edmonton-Gold Bar: University of Alberta lecturer Cristina Stasia is the nominated Alberta Party candidate. Dr. Stasia has won numerous teaching awards and is a founding board members of WAVE: Women’s Advocacy Voice of Edmonton.

Edmonton-Manning: Gurcharan Garcha is said to be running against MLA Peter Sandhu for the PC nomination in this northeast Edmonton constituency. Mr. Garcha runs the G Driving School. Adam Mounzar is seeking the Liberal Party nomination.

Edmonton Meadowlark: Registered Social Worker Jeanette de Vries will challenge Jon Carson for the NDP nomination.

Edmonton-Rutherford: Local businessman Chris Labossiere defeated Grant Mann in for the PC nomination. The constituency is currently represented by former Health Minister Fred Horne, who is not seeking re-election.

Edmonton-South West: Former Catholic School Trustee Rudy Arcilla is seeking the Liberal nomination. In 2012, Mr. Arcilla earned 15% of the vote as the Liberal candidate.

Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo: First-term MLA Mike Allen defeated Catholic School Trustee Tracy McKinnon for the PC nomination. Some PC Party members in Fort McMurray have expressed their unhappiness after they discovered local organizers scheduled candidate speeches after the voting had closed at the nomination meeting.

Medicine Hat: Teacher and past city council candidate Jim Black is the Alberta Party candidate. Mr. Black is also the Political Engagement Officer for Alberta Teachers’ Association Local 2 in the Prairie Rose School District.

Red Deer-North: Krystal Kromm is the Alberta Party candidate. Ms. Kromm is the Vice-President of Red Deer’s Downtown Business Association.

St. Albert: Trevor Love is the Alberta Party candidate and Marie Renaud has been acclaimed as the NDP candidate. Ms. Renaud is the executive director of the LoSeCa Foundation.

Strathcona-Sherwood Park: Educational Assistant and Taekwondo Coach Estefania Cortes-Vargas is the NDP candidate.

Strathmore-Brooks: Einar Davison is the nominated Alberta Party candidate. Mr. Davison ran for the Liberal Party in the 1997 election in the Drumheller-Chinook constituency, where he earned 15% of the vote.

Whitecourt-Ste Anne: Gunn-area cattle farmer John Bos is the nominated Wildrose Party candidate.

I have added these updates to the list of nominees and nomination candidates planning to run in Alberta’s next general election. Please email david.cournoyer [at] gmail.com if there are additions to the list. Thank you.

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Tuesday candidate nomination update in Alberta

Rachel Notley Marlin Schmidt NDP Edmonton Gold Bar Alberta
NDP leader Rachel Notley and Edmonton-Gold Bar candidate Marlin Schimidt at the Edmonton-Strathcona nomination meeting (photo by Olav Rokne).

Alberta’s New Democrats demonstrated some organizational strength last weekend as close to 400 supporters packed the TransAlta Arts Barns to watch party leader Rachel Notley accept the nomination to be a candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona. On hand for the unofficial NDP election campaign kickoff was former Toronto NDP MP and mayoral candidate Olivia Chow.

The NDP are hoping to make gains in the next election and have pinned their hopes on a handful of candidates. This political watcher is keeping a watchful eye on the campaigns of Marlin Schmidt in Edmonton-Gold Bar, Shannon Phillips in Lethbridge-West, Heather Sweet in Edmonton-Manning, Sarah Hoffman in Edmonton-Glenora and Joe Ceci in Calgary-Fort as NDP candidates who could make potential gains in the upcoming provincial election.

But Ms. Notley is not the only candidate to have been nominated over the weekend. Here are some recent candidate nominations that have been added to the list of Alberta Election candidates:

Battle River-Wainwright: Blake Prior is seeking the Progressive Conservative nomination in this east central rural constituency. The Wainwright Star reports that Mr. Prior had intended to run for the Wildrose nomination last year, before the PC leadership race and election and mass floor crossing of Wildrose MLAs to the PC caucus.

Calgary-Foothills: Previously nominated by her party to run in Calgary-Fort, Green Party leader Janet Keeping has decided to switch constituencies and is now running in Calgary-Foothills. A recent post on the Green Party blog explains that “with the recent entry of Joe Ceci, former city councillor for much of Calgary-Fort, into the provincial race, in the interests of maximizing the likelihood someone committed to progressive values will win, Janet has changed ridings and urges voters to support Ceci.”

Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview: Darko Milicic and Registered Nurse Emerson Mayers are seeking the PC nomination. Articling law student Harman Kandola has already announced his intentions to seek the PC nomination. Mr. Mayers was the 2012 PC Party candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona.

Edmonton-Decore: Don Martin is challenging MLA Janice Sarich for the PC nomination. Ms. Sarich was first elected in 2008. Mr. Martin was the 2012 Wildrose candidate in the neighbouring Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview constituency, where he earned 20.4% of the vote. Ms. Sarich had briefly considered seeking the federal Conservative nomination in Edmonton-Greisbach but announced her plans to stay in provincial politics in January 2014.

Edmonton-Meadowlark: Dan Bildhauer defeated past candidate Debbie Cavaliere to become the Liberal Party candidate. Mr. Bildhauer is also seeking the federal Liberal nomination in Edmonton-West and it is unclear whether he will now suspend his bid for a federal candidacy. Meadowlark is currently represented by former Liberal leader Raj Sherman, who announced in January 2015 that he would not seek re-election.

Edmonton-Mill Creek: Baljit Sall has announced his intentions to seek the Wildrose Party nomination in this southeast Edmonton constituency.

Edmonton-Riverview: Brandon Beringer is the nominated Alberta Party candidate.

Edmonton-South West: Krishna Tailor is the nominated Alberta Party candidate. He is an actor and the Manager of Fund Development at Special Olympics Alberta.

Spruce Grove-St. Albert: Teacher Gary Hanna will run as the Alberta Party candidate. Mr. Hanna is the President of the Alberta Teachers’ Association Local 10 in the Parkland School Division.

Stony Plain: Stony Plain resident Sandy Simmie has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate.

I have added these updates to the list of nominees and nomination candidates planning to run in Alberta’s next general election. Please email david.cournoyer [at] gmail.com if there are additions to the list. Thank you.

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Who will stop the Jim Prentice juggernaut?

Jim Prentice
The unstoppable Jim Prentice?

The past few months have been a sobering reminder that it foolish to underestimate the staying power of Alberta’s 43-year long governing Progressive Conservatives. A year ago the scandal ridden PC Government appeared to be on the verge of collapse. And now, without needing to present a clear vision for Alberta’s future, it looks like the PC Party could once again wipe out its opposition in the next election.

You read it here first, folks. The daveberta.ca decision desk has called a PC majority win in Alberta’s 2015 election. Congratulations, Premier Jim Prentice. You win. We are not worthy.

Yup. It has been another strange week in Alberta politics.

Cabinet Shuffle: Rumours are circulating in political circles that Mr. Prentice could soon shuffle his cabinet with appointments for former Wildrose MLAs Danielle Smith and Kerry Towle. Returning to social media after a recent vacation in Mexico, Ms. Smith apologized to her former party’s supporters for not notifying them before she led the majority of the Wildrose caucus to cross the floor to the PCs in December 2014.

Unite what’s Left: The resignation of Raj Sherman as leader of the Liberal Party has spaced another round of discussion about uniting Alberta’s tiny progressive opposition parties. Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman said that she is willing to step in as interim leader and would like to work to unite the various opposition parties. NDP leader Rachel Notley is firmly against this venture, a concept that was overwhelmingly vetoed by her party’s activists at numerous conventions.

More Right: The Alberta Party appears a little less progressive this week as leader Greg Clark announced that former Wildrose candidate Tim Grover is now the party’s Executive Director. Mr. Grover ran for the Wildrose in the September 2014 Edmonton-Whitemud by-election and placed third behind NDP candidate Bob Turner.

Uniting Anyway: One local candidate is taking it upon himself to find an alternative to the current progressive vote split. Past Red Deer-North Liberal candidate Michael Dawe announced via email this week that he will “investigate what might be involved, and what might be possible, in creating cross partisan alliances in the next election, in order to ensure that the people who elect us come first, instead of a group of semi-anonymous backroom players, who are always trying to set the agenda, regardless of what the general public might feel.”

“I will be investigating what might be involved in creating cross partisan alliances, cooperation etc.,” wrote Mr. Dawe.

More Boots: Former PC and Wildrose MLA Guy Boutilier resigned from Wood Buffalo Municipal Council this week and rejoined the PC Party, sparking rumours that he might challenge MLA Mike Allen for the nomination in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo. MyMcMurray reports Mr. Boutilier’s resignation from council was part of a court settlement related to his residency in Fort McMurray.

Resignations and Re-Elections: Retirement and re-election announcements continue: Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley PC MLA Hector Goudreau announced his plans to retire. Former NDP leader Brian Mason will seek re-election as MLA for Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood. Edmonton-Mill Creek PC MLA Gene Zwozdesky, Calgary-North West MLA Sandra Jansen, Calgary-Hawkwood PC MLA Jason Luan and Edmonton-South West PC MLA Matt Jeneroux announced they will seek re-election. The PCs picked up a big name candidate today as businessman and Edmonton-enthusiast Chris Labossiere announced he is running for that party’s nomination in Edmonton-Rutherford. The list of nomination candidates has also been updated.

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Where will Jim Prentice run in a by-election?

Premier Jim Prentice Alberta PC leadership race
Alberta’s new Premier Jim Prentice, does not have a seat in the Alberta Legislative Assembly.

Three weeks after being selected as leader of the governing Progressive Conservative Party, Premier Jim Prentice still does not have a seat in the Alberta Legislative Assembly.

Premier Alison Redford
Alison Redford

Although his party has already nominated candidates to run in the impending Calgary-Elbow and Edmonton-Whitemud by-elections, Mr. Prentice remains coy about where, and when, a third by-election will be held.

On August 26, Mr. Prentice told the Edmonton Journal he would call a by-election immediately after he became PC Party leader. He was elected PC Party leader on September 6 and sworn-in as premier on September 15.

It appears likely that Mr. Prentice might announce which constituency he will run in on the day the writ of by-election is signed by Lieutenant Governor Donald Ethell. Using all the advantages of an incumbent government, it appears he is trying to give the opposition parties the least time possible to prepare candidates to run against him.

Neil Brown
Neil Brown

The “announcement-a-day keeps the memory of Alison Redford away” strategy has kept Mr. Prentice’s name in the news headlines, and has allowed him to create a two-week long list of talking points with which to campaign.

It is widely believed that Mr. Prentice will run in Calgary-Nose Hill-Mackay, where current PC MLA Neil Brown has publicly offered to resign.

There is also speculation that he could also choose to run in another north Calgary constituency – like Calgary-Foothills – currently represented by Independent MLA Len Webber. Mr. Webber is seeking the federal Conservative nomination in Calgary-Confederation (he left the PC caucus in May 2014, after describing Ms. Redford as a “bully”).

Update: Len Webber has won the Conservative nomination in Calgary-Confedertation. 

The tight-lipped preparations have led many political watchers to believe that the Tories remain worried that Albertans may choose to punish the new Premier for the misdeeds and broken promises of Ms. Redford and the PC caucus over the past two years.

Under normal circumstances, Mr. Prentice would easily be elected, but by-elections are risky for incumbent parties because they give voters an opportunity to voice their disapproval without changing a government.

Jennifer Burgess Calgary-Prentice NDP by-election
Jennifer Burgess, the NDP candidate in the “Calgary-Prentice” by-election.

But whichever constituency he decides to run in, one party is ready  with a candidate in the wings. Calgary writer Jennifer Burgess has said she will run for the New Democratic Party in any by-election Mr. Prentice chooses to run in. Her website cleverly describes herself as the NDP candidate in the Calgary-Prentice constituency.

Edmonton-Whitemud by-election

The NDP and Wildrose Party announced their candidates in the Edmonton-Whitemud by-election. Dr. Bob Turner, a well-spoken doctor from Edmonton’s Cross Cancer Institute, has decided to run against former Edmonton mayor and newly appointed Health Minister Stephen Mandel.

Flanked by Wildrose leader Danielle Smith and a handful of supporters and Wildrose MLAs, Tim Grover announced his plans to challenge Mr. Mandel. Mr. Grover was already nominated to run for the Wildrose Party in the Edmonton-South West constituency. He was also the ‘Get Out the Vote’ chairman for Karen Leibovici‘s 2013 mayoral campaign.

Alberta Party President William Munsey is running under his party’s banner.

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Anglin for a fight (and more nomination updates)

Joe Anglin
Joe Anglin

“Alleged death threats, implied bribes, constituency association ambushes and supposed Progressive Conservative Party skulduggery,” is how a Red Deer Advocate report described the unexpectedly interesting Wildrose Party nomination in the Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre constituency.

First-term MLA Joe Anglin is being challenged for his nomination by former local Wildrose president Jason Nixon.

Mr. Anglin is long-time rabble-rouser who set the political landscape on fire by organizing mass opposition to the construction of electrical transmission lines through vast swaths of central Alberta. Briefly the leader of Alberta’s Greens, he grabbed the Wildrose nomination before the 2012 election and unseated six-term PC MLA Ty Lund, who was first elected to political office in the region in 1980.

The story was  first reported by AlbertaDiary.ca and the Rimbey Review.

Twelve of the Wildrose Party’s seventeen MLAs have been nominated as candidates in the next election and a handful of 2012 Wildrose candidates were also nominated: Richard Jones in Calgary-Acadia, Jeremy Nixon in Calgary-Klein, Wayne Anderson in Calgary-Hays, and Kelly Hudson in Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley.

Jackie Lovely Wildrose Leduc Beaumnot
Jackie Lovely

Leduc-Beaumont
The Wildrose nomination in the riding immediately south of Edmonton is shaping up to be a race. The contest already has attracted three candidates and more are expected to enter the race.

First to enter the race is Patrick Kobly, son of former Beaumont mayor Ken Kobly and fiancee of Nicky Walker, chief of staff to Independent MLAs Mike Allen and Len Webber.

Jackie Lovely, a former Wildrose Caucus staffer and past president of the Summerside Community League, is also seeking the nomination in Leduc-Beaumont. Ms. Lovely ran for the Wildrose Party in Edmonton-Ellerslie in the 2012 election, placing second behind PC MLA Naresh Bhardwaj, earning 3,249 votes (24% of the vote).

Ironworker Joel Hamilton is running for the Wildrose nomination in Leduc-Beaumont and has declared on his Facebook page that he “will fight Edmonton’s Annexation of Nisku, the Airport and of the Beaumont expansion area.”

Rod Loyola Edmonton Ellerslie NDP
Rod Loyola

Calgary-Elbow
Retired Colonel John Fletcher is seeking the Wildrose nomination in Calgary-Elbow. It is expected that current Progressive Conservative MLA and former Premier Alison Redford could resign to allow Jim Prentice to run in a by-election shortly after he wins the PC leadership race in September.

Drayton Valley-Devon
Daniel Walton, owner of the Easyford meat packing company, is seeking the Wildrose nomination. This was one of the few rural constituencies where the PC candidate earned a majority of the votes cast in the 2012 election. PC MLA Diana McQueen was elected for a second term with 51.6% of the vote.

Edmonton-Ellerslie
Rod Loyola was nominated as the NDP candidate in this southeast Edmonton constituency. Mr. Loyola is the president of the University of Alberta Non-Academic Staff Association and was the 2012 NDP candidate in this riding. He earned 2,115 votes (16%) in that election.

Laura Thibert Wildrose Edmonton Mill Woods
Laura Thibert

Edmonton-Mill Woods
Laura Thibert, Edmonton Catholic School District trustee announced on Twitter that she will seek the Wildrose nomination in Edmonton-Mill Woods. Ms. Thibert was first elected in 2010 and was re-elected in 2013 with 47% of the vote.

Edmonton-South West
Tim Grover is seeking the Wildrose nomination. A business consultant, Mr. Grover was the Get Out The Vote chairman for Karen Leibovici’s mayoral campaign in 2013.

Lethbridge-West
The NDP nominated researcher Shannon Phillips as their candidate in Lethbridge-West. The NDP hope that with some hard work Ms. Phillips can build on her 2012 results, when she boosted her party’s support to 29%, up from 10% in the 2008 election. Those 2012 results placed Ms. Phillips ahead of the Wildrose candidate and just over 1,000 votes behind PC MLA Greg Weadick.

Sherwood Park
Former Strathcona County mayor Linda Osinchuk was nominated as the Wildrose candidate in Sherwood Park. Ms. Osinchuk was first elected mayor in 2010, defeating incumbent mayor Cathy Oleson, who is now the PC MLA for Sherwood Park.

I am maintaining an updated list of candidates seeking party nominations to stand in Alberta’s next provincial election. Please email david.cournoyer [at] gmail.com if there are additions to the list.

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4 ways out of the PC leadership crisis

1016747_10152283795607556_1252277004_n

The increasingly public struggle between Premier Alison Redford and a group of disgruntled MLAs in the Progressive Conservative Party continues this week.

Following Monday’s announcement by Calgary-Varsity PC MLA Donna Kennedy-Glans that she would sit as an Independent MLA, two more PC MLAs are publicly considering leaving.

Matt Jeneroux MLA Edmonton South West
Matt Jeneroux

Edmonton-South West PC MLA Matt Jeneroux mused that he is “taking time to reflect” about whether he should remain in the government caucus. Edmonton-Riverview MLA Steve Young, already , is also considering leaving the PC caucus.

Government House leader Robin Campbell says that PC MLAs are free to speak their mind. But the lack of discipline in the caucus suggests the real reason is that any attempt to silence the disgruntled MLAs could lead to a mass departure from the government caucus.

At a press conference held yesterday afternoon, party president Jim McCormick gave a luke-warm support for Ms. Redford’s leadership. Mr. McCormick also sent an email to PC Party supporters, explaining that the “work plan” issued to the premier last weekend does not exist on paper. There is no plan.

Meanwhile, Lougheed-era cabinet minister Allan Warrack has added his name to the list of Tories calling on the premier to resign.

With the current situation in flux, here are four possible scenarios that could play out over the next few weeks:

Redford resigns – Pressure from her caucus and party results in Ms. Redford resigning as Premier of Alberta and leader of the PC Party. The disgruntled MLAs remain in the government caucus. An interim premier, possibly Deputy Premier Dave Hancock, is appointed and a leadership contest is scheduled. MLAs hope that a new leader can reinvent and reenergize their aging party before the next election.

Redford stays, more MLAs leave – Ms. Redford and her loyalists resist the pressure from disgruntled MLAs and supporters calling for the premier’s resignation. Some of the ten MLAs, possibly as many as ten, leave the PC caucus to sit as Independent MLAs, causing a severe rift in the party and the caucus.

“Kumbaya” – The disgruntled MLAs resolve their issues with Ms. Redford and she pledges to change her leadership style in order to improve her relationship with her caucus and party. The Tory dynasty continues as peace and harmony is returned to the government benches.

Conflict continues – Ms. Redford refuses to resign and the disgruntled MLAs continue to voice their discontent with the premier’s leadership style. The party and caucus are torn apart in the political fight. Wildrose leader Danielle Smith rejoices and leads her party to win the 2016 election.

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