The polls suggest the United Conservative Party is poised to form government in 2019, but how united the caucus actually is remains questionable.
Calgary-Greenway UCP MLA Prab Gill issued a statement yesterday announcing that he has left the UCP caucus to sit as an Independent MLA following the conclusion of an investigation into allegations of ballot-stuffing and ballot-snatching at a party meeting in the new Calgary-North East district on June 30, 2018.
Gill had already resigned as UCP caucus deputy whip on July 11, 2018, and with his departure from the UCP caucus he leaves his roles as Official Opposition critic for seniors, housing and multiculturalism. He had been planning to challenge Anand Chetty and Tariq Khan for the UCP nomination in Calgary-North East.
Following the circulation of the video, UCP leader Jason Kenney announced he had asked retired judge and former Progressive Conservative Party president Ted Carruthers to investigate the allegations.
Carruthers served as president of the PC Party from 1992 to 1994 and oversaw the party’s 1992 leadership contest, which he at the time described as “the greatest exercise in democracy ever seen in our province.” He was appointed as an Alberta Family and Youth Court Judge in 1996 by then-Justice Minster Brian Evans.
Carruthers’ report and its contents, which prompted Gill’s departure from the UCP caucus, has not been made public.
Nasty internal power struggles were common in old PC Party
A Wildrose Party flyer attacking PC candidate Prab Gill for being a “Justin Trudeau Liberal.” Mr. Gill was elected on March 22, 2016.
Gill was first elected as the PC MLA for Calgary-Greenway in a 2016 by-election following the death of PC MLA Manmeet Bhullar. Gill was first appointed as the PC Party candidate but a backlash from party members led to the party allowing a contested nomination, which he then won.
In the by-election, he narrowly defeated his main opponent, Wildroser Devinder Toor, by 335 votes and faced harsh criticism from the Wildrose Party for his support of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in the October 2015 federal election.
Prab Gill is the sixth MLA to leave the United Conservative Party caucus since it was formed on July 24, 2017.
1. Strathmore-Brooks MLA Derek Fildebrandt left the UCP caucus on August 15, 2017 after he was charged with hunting and shooting a deer on private property without permission. He currently sits as an Independent Conservative MLA in the Assembly.
2. Calgary-South East MLA Rick Fraser left the UCP caucus to sit as an Independent MLA on September 12, 2017. He joined the Alberta Party caucus on January 9, 2018 and ran for that party’s leadership.
3. Dave Rodney resigned as MLA for Calgary-Lougheed on November 1, 2017 in order to trigger a by-election to allow Kenney to enter the Legislative Assembly. Rodney was first elected as a PC MLA in 2004.
5. Brian Jean resigned as MLA for Fort McMurray-Conklin on March 5, 2018 in the months following his defeat in the UCP leadership contest. Jean had led the Wildrose Party from 2015 to 2017.
Due to a strange quirk in Alberta’s election finance laws, all or most donations collected by political parties during the official by-election period between November 16, 2017 and February 14, 2018 were not reported in the regular quarterly financial reports. Those donations are instead included in this by-election report.
The report showed the Alberta NDP raising $885,206.29 in donations during this three month period, which would include the party’s aggressive year-end fundraising appeal.
When combined with the quarterly reports, this means the NDP fundraised more than $1.5 million in the period covering the final quarter of 2017 and first quarter of 2018.
The Alberta Party did not file a report because they did not participate in the Calgary-Lougheed by-election.
Phillip van der Merwe
UCP leader Jason Kenney won the by-election with a landslide 71 percent, ahead of New Democrat Phillip van der Merwe with 16 percent and Liberal leader David Khan with 9 percent.
Recent legislation passed by the Legislative Assembly reduces the length of the confusing by-election financial reporting period which these donations fell under.
It is my understanding that the three-month long by-election financial reporting period is a hold-over from when the old Progressive Conservative regime increased maximum donation limits from $15,000 to $30,000 for individuals, corporations or unions during the writ period. The NDP banned corporate and union donations in 2015 and have since lowered the maximum annual donation limit to $4,000.
The top donors to political parties during the Calgary-Lougheed by-election period (November 16, 2017 to February 14, 2018):
New Democratic Party
Renee Katz – $4,000
K Shugarman – $4,000
Brune Sinneave – $4,000
Cody Sater – $4,000
Don Smith – $4,000
Allan Wood – $4,000
Liberal
Dan Hays – $2,500
Bart MacLean – $1,500
Aletha Crowe – $1,500
Reform Party of Alberta
Kathleen Thorsteinson – $4,000
Randy Thorsteinson – $4,000
Green Party
Jill Browne – $2,300
Alan Ernst – $1,000
Richard Willott – $790
Fringe separatist party renames itself, again…
The Western Freedom Party has been renamed the Freedom Conservative Party, according to Elections Alberta. The party was originally formed as the Alberta First Party in 1999, renamed the Separation Party in 2004 and again renamed the Alberta First Party in 2013. It was renamed the Western Freedom Party in April 2018 and again renamed the Freedom Conservative Party in June 2018.
The party’s Facebook page does not yet reflect the name change, but it wants to make sure that Albertans “Don’t find yourself waking up one day to find that the World Bank or George Soros and Aga Khan own your financial institutions. You will then understand what you should have done to stop the UN, the Songbird initiative, the Boreal Initiative, Y to Y and the Leap Manifesto and take your country back from the elites!“
It is not yet known what this fringe party will be named in 2019, but stay tuned.
Photo: Mike Nickel, Stephanie McLean, Angela Pitt, and Marco Reid
The big nomination news since my last update was the announcement by Stephanie McLean that she was withdrawing from the New Democratic Party nomination contest in Calgary-Varsity. McLean is Minister of Status of Women and Minister of Service Alberta and is the second NDP MLA to announced plans not to seek re-election in 2019. In 2016, she became the first first sitting cabinet minister in Alberta’s history to give birth while in office.
Calgary-Varsity was the NDP’s third strongest showing in Calgary in the 2015 election, behind Calgary-Fort, represented by Joe Ceci, and Calgary-Klein, represented by Craig Coolahan.
Edmonton City Councillor seeks UCP nomination
Edmonton City Councillor Mike Nickel is the third candidate to enter the United Conservative Party nomination contest in the new Edmonton-South district. Nickel has represented Ward 11 in southeast Edmonton since 2013 and previously represented southwest Edmonton’s Ward 5 from 2004 until 2007 when he was unseated by rookie candidate Don Iveson. Nickel ran unsuccessfully for mayor in 1998 and 2001.
Nickel would not need to resign as a City Councillor unless he is elected as an MLA in the expected spring 2019 provincial election. Amarjeet Sohi took a leave of absence from council when he ran as a federal Liberal candidate in Edmonton-Mill Woods in 2015 and resigned after he was elected. Councillor Tony Caterina took a leave of absence when he ran as a Progressive Conservative candidate in the Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview district in the 2015 provincial election. He returned to council following his election defeat.
UCP MLAs face nomination challengers
The UCP nominated their first five candidates for the next provincial election. Jason Kenney in Calgary-Lougheed, Mike Ellis in Calgary-West, Jason Nixon in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, Grant Hunter in Taber-Warner and Nate Glubish in Strathcona-Sherwood Park were acclaimed in their nomination contests.
As noted in a previous update, Sportsnet commentator Roger Millions is challenging MLA Angela Pitt for the UCP nomination in the new Airdrie-East district. Pitt was first elected in 2015, earning 35 percent of the vote in a three-way contest with New Democrat Chris Noble, with 29 percent, and Progressive Conservative Peter Brown, with 28 percent. A nomination contest has been scheduled for June 20, 2018.
There is trouble in Airdrie-East. Board member Rick Northey resigned citing serious concerns with how “sixteen thousand dollars” left over in the former Wildrose Party association in the district was “given away with no discussion at all.” Northey claims in his letter that he faced “outright intimidation from a sitting MLA.”
Patrick Meckelborg is challenging UCP MLA Ric McIver for the UCP nomination in Calgary-Hays at a June 7, 2018 selection meeting. McIver was first elected as MLA for this district in 2012 and served as interim leader of the Progressive Conservative Party following the party’s disastrous defeat in the 2015 election,
Carrie Fischer and Dean Leask are challenging UCP MLA Wayne Anderson for the UCP nomination in Highwood. Fischer is a former councillor in the Town of Okotoks who ran against Anderson as the PC candidate in this district in the 2015 election.
Greens nominate by-election candidates
The Green Party of Alberta has nominated Marco Reid in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and Brian Deheer in Fort McMurray-Conklin. By-elections are expected to be called in these districts soon. Reid is currently serving as president of the party and was a candidate for the party’s leadership in 2017. The party’s strongest showing in the last election was in Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills, where Deheer earned 2.8 percent of the vote.
Calgary-Bow – Cheryl Durkee is seeking the UCP nomination contest in Calgary-Bow.
Calgary-Cross – Emile Gabriel is seeking the UCP nomination contest.
Calgary-Falconridge – Deepak Sharma is seeking the Liberal Party nomination.
Edmonton-Manning – Kulshan Gill is seeking the UCP nomination.
Edmonton-McClung – Steve Thompson is seeking the UCP nomination. Thompson was the Wildrose Party candidate in this district in the 2015 election.
Edmonton-Mill Woods – David Fletcher is seeking the UCP nomination. Fletcher was a candidate for Edmonton Public School Board in 1998, a Progressive Conservative candidate in Edmonton-Gold Bar in 2001 and an Independent candidate for Senator Nominee in 2012.
Edmonton-Rutherford – Hannah Presakarchuk is seeking the UCP nomination.
Edmonton-Whitemud – Ian Crawford is seeking the UCP nomination. Crawford was the Wildrose Party candidate in Edmonton-Whitemud in 2012 and Edmonton-Riverview in 2015 and ran for the federal Conservative nomination in Edmonton-Riverbend in 2015. He also ran for City Council in 1989, 1992, and 2004, for the Capital Health Authority Board in 2001, for the Reform Party nomination in Edmonton-Strathcona in 1993, for the PC nominations in Edmonton-Rutherford and Edmonton-Ellerslie in 1993, for the Canadian Alliance in Edmonton-Southeast nomination in 2000, and for the PC nomination in Edmonton-Meadowlark in 2007.
Spruce Grove-Stony Plain – Jerry Semen is seeking the UCP nomination.
St. Albert – Brian Horak is seeking the UCP nomination.
If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!
Calgary-Edgemont – Joanne Gui is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. She will be challenging Beth Barberree in this district, making this the first contested nomination for the Alberta Party (perhaps ever).
Calgary-Klein – Kara Levis is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Levis was a candidate for the party’s leadership earlier this year and is the President of the National Women’s Liberal Commission of the federal Liberal Party.
Calgary-North East – Gul Khan is seeking the Liberal Party nomination in this new district in north east Calgary.
Calgary-Shaw – Rebecca Schulz is seeking the UCP nomination. Schulz is the director of marketing and communications at the University of Calgary and until 2016 was the director of communications for the Saskatchewan Ministry of Education.
Edmonton-Decore – Ali Haymour is seeking the Alberta Party nomination in this north Edmonton district. Haymour recently ran for Edmonton City Council in 2017 and was the New Democratic Party candidate in Edmonton-Castle Downs in 2008 and Edmonton-Decroe in 2012.
The NDP has scheduled nomination contests in Edmonton-City Centre on June 5, 2018, Lethbridge-West on June 11, 2018, Calgary-Buffalo and Calgary-McCall on June 12, 2018, and Drayton Valley-Devon on June 23, 2018.
The UCP has announced deadlines to enter nomination contests by May 30, 2018 in Airdrie East, Calgary-Lougheed, Calgary-West, Taber-Warner, and Rimbey-Rocky Moutain House-Sundre. A June 4, 2018 entry deadline has been set in Strathcona-Sherwood Park, Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, Cardston-Siksika, Calgary-Hays, Calgary-Edgemont, and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. And a June 11, 2018 deadline has been set for Cypress-Medicine Hat.
It is expected that UCP MLA Angela Pitt could face several challengers, including Calgary Sportsnet commentator Roger Millions, in her bid for her party’s nomination in the new Airdrie-East district.
The Alberta Party has scheduled nomination meetings in the following districts: Edmonton-South on June 24, 2018, Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul on June 25, 2018, Edmonton-Glenora on June 25 2018, Edmonton-Ellerslie on June 25, 2018, Edmonton-Whitemud on June 26, 2018, Calgary-Klein on June 27 2018, Calgary-North East on June 29, 2018, Sherwood Park on July 8, 2018, and Edmonton-Rutherford on September 10, 2018.
If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!
CBC reports that Edmonton-Rutherford UCP nomination candidateLaine Larson has questioned vaccination science and has suggested parents may be harming their children by vaccinating them against disease. CBC reports that Larson did not respond to interview requests sent by email, voicemail and direct message to both his personal and campaign Facebook accounts.
Attempts by Jason Kenney’s opponents to paint him as an extremist social conservative failed to stop the United Conservative Party leader from winning a crushing landslide victory today in Calgary-Lougheed.
Phillip van der Merwe
With 22 of 22 polls reporting, Kenney had earned 7,760 votes, 71.51 percent of the total votes cast in the by-election. The UCP had a strong candidate, a strong organization and solid base of voter support in the district. And like the previous two by-elections held since the last election, this district avoided the New Democratic Party’s Orange Wave when voters re-elected Progressive Conservative Dave Rodney in 2015.
NDP candidate Phillip van der Merwe placed second with 1,822 votes, 16.79 percent of the votes cast. van der Merwe was a high quality candidate for the party in Calgary, but his chances of upsetting Kenney were always slim to none.
The NDP were spared the embarrassment of placing third, a spot that fell to newly elected Liberal Party leader David Khan, who earned 1,009 votes, 9.3 percent of the total vote. Khan’s showing was only a small improvement on the party’s showing in 2015, but it should be enough to concern the NDP that even a Liberal Party on life-support can eat into their vote share.
Despite support on the campaign trail from Premier Rachel Notley and a handful of high-profile cabinet ministers, NDP support was cut in half from the 2015 election, which is not a good sign for the governing party.
David Khan
The NDP should use the Calgary-Lougheed by-election as an opportunity to recalibrate their line of attack against the UCP leader. Kenney is a professional political networker unlike we have ever seen in Alberta politics, and he should not be underestimated.
While the NDP have been racking upeasy winsagainst fumbling and confused UCP MLAs on the floor of the Legislative Assembly, Kenney has been activating a network of conservative political activists and supporters he has built over the past twenty-five years.
Two months ago, I wrote that the NDP were betting Albertans would forgive their more unpopular policies when reminded of the Kenney’s more bizarre social conservative views. On the flip-side, Kenney was betting Albertans would forgive his social conservative views when reminded of the NDP’s more unpopular policies.
The NDP painted Kenney as an extremist during the recent debate over Gay-Straight Alliances, and while his social views are probably out of step with most Albertans in 2017, that does not appear to have had an impact on him or the UCP in this by-election. Kenney’s relentless attacks on the NDP’s fiscal and economic agenda appear to be resonating in Calgary, where NDP MLAs are expected to face a very steep uphill battle in their bids for re-election.
While I am sure the NDP’s strategists in Edmonton are hard at work preparing for the next election, it may be time to rethink how they approach the UCP leader as he enters the Assembly.
This may have only been one by-election in a district already held by the UCP, but it should be a wake-up call for the NDP. The next general election is only a short 14 months away.
Results of the Calgary-Lougheed by-election (December 14, 2017)
Jason Kenney, UCP – 7,760 (71.51%) Phillip van der Merwe, NDP – 1,822 (16.79%) David Khan, Liberal – 1,009 (9.3%) Lauren Thorsteinson, Reform – 137 (1.26%) Romy Tittel, Green – 60 (0.55%) Wayne Leslie, Independent – 42 (0.39%) Larry Heather, Independent 22 (0.22%)
Vote in the Best of Alberta Politics 2017 Survey
Make sure to vote in the Best of Alberta Politics 2017 Survey. The first round of voting will close at 11:59pm on Friday, December 15, 2017. Voting for the top 3 results in each category will begin on Sunday, December 17, 2017. We will reveal the results of the survey on the next episode of the Daveberta Podcast, which you can listen and subscribe to on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, and wherever you find podcasts online.
In 2009, the British Columbia Human Rights Tribunal awarded more than $30,000 to the female safety officer who was terminated by Nixon four days before Christmas in 2005.
Nixon was first elected as the Wildrose Party MLA for Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre in 2015.
The UCP opposes Bill 30 and, as its leader in the Assembly, Nixon has lead the Official Opposition’s charge against it.
While Kenney issued a written statement in an attempt to blame the firing on Nixon’s age (he was 25-year old at the time) and criticize the NDP for attacking the UCP MLA’s “personal integrity,” Premier Rachel Notley responded directly to the issue of sexual harassment:
Text of Notley’s statement:
As I’m sure will come as no surprise to all of you, in my view, this is a very, very serious issue. We are at an important time right now, where courageous women across North America are coming forward to talk about the problem of sexual harassment and sexual harassment in the workplace. It’s a very difficult problem. We know it proliferates everywhere, and it’s not easy to address. What we do know, though, what’s going to keep women safe, what’s going to help deal with this problem, is assuring as a first step is assuring that they know they have the right to speak up, and that people will support them when they speak up. Mr. Nixon’s response when someone spoke up was to fire her. That is not the right response. Moreover, since that time, Mr. Nixon has gone into the House and fought against a bill that would have protected someone in Alberta in the very same situation as the woman that Mr. Nixon chose to fire. Mr. Kenney is actually the person that needs to answer questions about this now. This is his hand-picked lieutenant. His hand-picked political lieutenant who is leading the caucus in this House, who fired a woman for speaking up against sexual harassment which was found to have happened, who is now fighting against a bill that would protect women in Alberta from the very same sexual harassment in the workplace. This is very, very serious. I think when women wake up this morning and read this article and hear more about what’s happened, they’re going to wonder where their government stands, and I want them to know that their government stands with them, and that is why we’re working so hard to get this bill through the House today.
Kenney gave no indication in his written statement if he plans to remove Nixon from his role as the UCP’s leader in the Legislative Assembly and critic for Democracy and Accountability before MLA’s adjourn for the Christmas break – and voters go to the polls in Calgary-Lougheed – on Thursday.
The state of discourse in Alberta politics (and social media), Political Action Committees, election reforms, the Calgary-Lougheed by-election, and federal candidate nomination gossip are just some of the topics covered in the latest episode of The Daveberta Podcast with Dave Cournoyer and Ryan Hastman (recorded on Sunday, Dec. 10, 2017).
Plus, we answer questions you sent us since our last episode!
We’d love to hear what you think of the podcast, so feel free to leave a review where you download it and share the podcast with a friend. Also feel free to leave a comment on this blog, Facebook or Twitter or send us an email at podcast@daveberta.ca.
We’d also like to send a big thanks to our producer, Adam Rozenhart, for his help in making this podcast a reality.
Thanks!
(Photo: We recorded the latest episode of the Daveberta Podcast this weekend. Guess who’s laptop and coffee mug these are? ☕️💻)
The construction of a new cancer centre in Calgary was a big issue in the last election, so a recent comment by a United Conservative Party MLA Glenn van Dijken about the new Calgary Cancer Centre being a “fancy box” certainly gave van der Merwe some extra material to use while campaigning at the doors. But while health care is one of the issues he spoke most passionately about during our chat, jobs and the economy remain a top issue for many Calgary voters.
While the economy has stabilized since 2014 and is showing signs of growth, van der Merwe was honest about the slow recovery in Calgary.
“Officially, if you look at all the indicators the recession is over, but we are certainly empathetic to the fact that this has maybe not translated to families yet,” said van der Merwe. “People are hurting and we know there is still more work to do and that’s exactly why we have to continue.”
“I can tell you that families are very concerned about Mr. [Jason] Kenney’s 20 percent budget cuts and what that will mean in the economy alone – just ripping the bottom from under it,” said van der Merwe, echoing statements made by Premier Rachel Notley about the dangers of UCP budget cuts.
And on the NDP’s chances in a future election, van der Merwe believes that 2015 election was more than the “accident” that the NDP’s opponents tend to frame it as.
“I think people are underestimating what happened in 2015, thinking that it was purely a protest vote. And while there obviously was elements of that, I think it was a sign that Alberta has changed,” said van der Merwe. “And that is what we are finding in this race.”
“Mr. Kenney is out of touch with what Calgary wants. Not only is his social stance out of touch with the 21st century, period, but it’s out of touch with what Albertans and Calgarians want,” said van der Merwe.
Kenney and the UCP tied themselves in knots last month over the issue of Gay-Straight Alliances in Alberta schools, an issue the NDP were eager to let their opposition stumble over.
“Alberta is not the Alberta it was 20 years ago, and that’s a good thing.”
Dr. van der Merwe has had help on the campaign trail over the past few weeks from Finance Minister Joe Ceci, Education Minister David Eggen, Culture and Tourism Minister Ricardo Miranda, Indigenous Relations Minister Richard Feehan, and Calgary-Shaw MLA Graham Sucha.
UCP leader Jason Kenney on the campaign trail in Calgary-Lougheed (photo from Facebook)
Here is a quick look at what the other by-election candidates have been up to:
UCP leader Jason Kenney hosted a well-attended town hall meeting in Calgary-Lougheed on December 5, 2017. He was also spotted campaigning alongside Calgary-Foothills MLA Prasad Panda and Fort McMurry-Wood Buffalo MLA Tany Yao.
Green Party leader Romy Tittel released her party’s manifesto for democracy, which calls for the adoption of a Proportional Representation electoral system, the banning of all election donations and use of mass media for campaign communications, and the creation of citizen initiated legislation through online petitions.
Liberal Party leader David Khan was endorsed by 8-time Juno Award-winning artist Jann Arden. Arden tweeted her support for the Liberal leader on December 6, 2017. “We have to move intelligently forward. Not backward,” Arden wrote in her endorsement of Khan.
— Jann “stop live horse export” Arden (@jannarden) December 7, 2017
All-Candidates Debate: The Calgary Leadership Forum is hosting an all-candidates debate for Calgary-Lougheed on December 10, 2017 from 1:30 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. at the Braeside Community Hall (11024 Braeside Drive SW, Calgary).
Calgary-Lougheed by-election candidates Jason Kenney (UCP), David Khan (Liberal), Lauren Thorsteinson (Reform), Phillip van der Merwe (NDP), Romy Tittel (Green) and Wayne Leslie (Independent/AAPPA)
Photo: Calgary-Lougheed by-election candidates Jason Kenney (UCP), David Khan (Liberal), Lauren Thorsteinson (Reform), Phillip van der Merwe (NDP), Romy Tittel (Green) and Wayne Leslie (Independent/AAPPA). Not pictured: Larry Heather (Independent)
Each of the three new candidates come from the much more conservative side of the political spectrum than any of Kenney’s previously announced challengers.
Wayne Leslie – Alberta Advantage Political Party Association
Wayne Leslie will be listed on the ballot as an Independent but a press release sent out today says he has the support of the unregistered Alberta Advantage Political Party Association, a group formed by supporters of the former Wildrose Party who did not support the merger with the Progressive Conservative Party. Leslie serves as the provincial director for Calgary on the AAPPA board and, according to the press release, he is a former Calgary Police officer who believes the “unity vote” process to merge the Wildrose and PC parties was “plain corruption.”
The AAPPA’s interim leader is Gil Poitras, who is listed by Elections Alberta as having served as Chief Financial Officer for the Alberta Party in 2013 and 2014 and as the president of the Alberta Party association in Leduc-Beaumont in 2015. The AAPPA’s president is David Inscho, the former president of the Wildrose association in Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills.
Larry Heather is a social conservative activist and perennial election candidate who has run in at least twenty school board, municipal, provincial and federal elections since 1984. Most recently he ran in Calgary’s mayoral election where he earned 848 votes (0.2 percent of the vote). In 2016, he ran as an Independent candidate in the Calgary-Greenway by-election where he earned 106 votes (1.28 percent of the vote).
Notley Q&A on CBC
Premier Rachel Notley will be taking questions live on air on CBC Radio’s Edmonton AM program on Tuesday, November 28, 2017 from 8:00am to 9:00am. Take advantage of your chance to engage with our premier and send in your questions.
Daveberta Podcast
Thanks to everyone who has subscribed and listened to the latest episode of the Daveberta Podcast. If you haven’t listened to it yet, download the podcast and let us know what you think. If you like what you hear, you can help us by subscribing to the podcast, submitting a review, sharing with your friends, and tuning in again next time (we will be releasing the next episode in December).
The Calgary-Lougheed by-election, the Alberta Party leadership race, a new ThinkHQ poll, Rachel Notley as Canada’s Pipeline Paladin, and changing electoral boundaries are just some of the topics covered in the latest episode of The Daveberta Podcast with Dave Cournoyer and Ryan Hastman (recorded on Sunday, Nov. 26, 2017).
We’d love to hear what you think of the podcast, so feel free to leave a review where you download it, leave a comment on this blog, Facebook or Twitter or send us an email at podcast@daveberta.ca.
We’d also like to send a special thanks to our producer, Adam Rozenhart, for his help in making this podcast a reality (and making us sound so good!).
“This is a sale of a depleting resource that’s owned by the people. Once a barrel of oil goes down the pipeline it’s gone forever. It’s like a farmer selling off his topsoil,” former Premier Peter Lougheed once said.
Photo: Former Alberta Premier Peter Lougheed. The Calgary-Lougheed electoral district is named after Lougheed.
It has been one week since the Calgary-Lougheed by-election was called. The by-election is being held on Dec. 14, 2017, but voters in this district also have the option of voting in advance polls on Dec. 6, 7, 8 and 9, 2017.
This is the third by-election since the general election of 2017 that swept the New Democratic Party into government. And like the previous two by-elections, this one will be held in a district where voters elected a Progressive Conservative MLA in 2015.
Four candidates have so far been nominated to stand in the by-election:
This will be a tough election for the NDP, as this area of southwest Calgary is considered bedrock conservative territory. In the recent Calgary mayoral election, voters in this part of Calgary supported conservative Bill Smith over progressive Naheed Nenshi.
Jason Kenney, United Conservative Party
UCP candidate Jason Kenney drew a big crowd of supporters when he opened his campaign office on Nov 19, 2017. The recently elected UCP leader is almost universally considered the favourite to win this by-election.
Kenney and his supporters have started to claim that Albertans’ home heating bills will increase by 75 percent because of the province’s Carbon Levy. Environment and Parks Minister Shannon Phillips denied Kenney’s claims, describing them as ‘patently false,’ but the UCP has capitalized on confusion about the provincial and federal carbon taxes in order to draw connections between the Notley NDP and the Trudeau Liberals.
The claims are reminiscent of Kenney’s rhetoric and photo-op from December 31, 2016, when he insinuated the same Carbon Levy would lead to a spike in automobile gas prices. That didn’t happen. With constant predictions that the sky is falling on the issue of a carbon tax and rampant truthiness on other issues, Kenney is sounding more and more like Chicken Little.
This will be Khan’s third election attempt since 2014 and his first since becoming leader earlier this year.
He first ran as his party’s candidate the 2014 Calgary-West by-election, where he placed 3rd with 8.5 percent of the vote. In the 2015 general election he ran in Calgary-Buffalo, where he placed 3rd with 24.7 percent of the vote (the constituency was represented by Kent Hehr from 2008 to 2015).
Tittel was selected as the party’s leader at a November 5, 2017 meeting in Red Deer. She previously ran for the federal Green Party in the 2015 general election in Foothills, where she placed 4th with 3.25 percent of the vote.
This is the second consecutive by-election in which the party’s has declined to run a candidate. In a Feb. 29, 2016 media release about the Calgary-Greenway by-election, party leader Greg Clark said “Running in this byelection is not the best use of our resources as we build towards 2019.”
Sitting out this by-election presents a missed opportunity for the Alberta Party to debut itself following its revival last weekend in Red Deer. But having their candidate get clobbered by Kenney would take a bite out of their narrative that they are a growing home for moderate conservative voters. By not running a candidate, the Alberta Party saves themselves the embarrassment of placing third, fourth or fifth in this by-election.
The by-election was necessitated by the resignation of United Conservative Party MLA Dave Rodney on October 30, 2017 to allow his party’s new leader, Jason Kenney, to seek a seat in the Legislative Assembly. Kenney was officially nominated as his party’s candidate earlier this week and is widely seen as the favourite to win the by-election.
“In this by-election, Calgary-Lougheed voters can tell the NDP to stop their job-killing policies, stop quadrupling the province’s debt and stop raising our taxes,” Kenney said in a press release, setting a curmudgeonly tone for the by-election campaign.
Along with a strong party organization in this fairly safe Conservative voting electoral district, Kenney will have the support of various Conservative political action committees.
The New Democratic Party will nominate physician Phillip van der Merwe as their candidate on Saturday, November 18, 2017. van der Merwe practices medicine at a Family Practice and Vasectomy Clinic in Calgary’s Mission neighbourhood. He was the co-chair of the PCN Physician Leads Executive when Health Minister Sarah Hoffman announced a new agreement with the province’s doctors to overhaul the primary care network system.
van der Merwe is also openly gay and married, which could create some interesting politics because of Kenney’s opposition to the recently passed Bill 24, which prevents teachers from outing students who join Gay-Straight Alliances to their parents.
According to Elections Alberta financial disclosures, van der Merwe donated $1,500 to Alberta Party leader Greg Clark‘s campaigns in the 2014 by-election and 2015 general election in Calgary-Elbow.
van der Merwe told Postmedia’s Don Braid that he was running for the NDP “because I don’t believe the NDP is anything but a good centrist alternative for all Albertans … an inclusive and welcoming party.”
The other parties have yet to announce their candidates, though there is speculation that new party leaders David Khan of the Liberal Party and Romy Tittel of the Green Party will join the race. The Alberta Party is also expected to run a candidate in this by-election.
Here is a look at election results from Calgary-Lougheed for the General Elections from 1993 to 2015:
The exact timing of the by-election will be determined by Premier Rachel Notley but the smart money is on it being called soon. Every day that Kenney is not tied up with Legislative duties in Edmonton, he will be campaigning across the province.
Despite being a close race in the 2015 election, with Rodney finishing 502 votes ahead of New Democrat Mihai Ion, the Orange Wave is now at low tide in Calgary. It seems likely that Kenney should have an easy time being elected in this constituency, which has elected conservative MLAs since it was first created in 1993 (but as well all know, by-elections can sometimes produce unexpected results…).
There is some irony that Kenney, who is in the midst of an ongoing feud with the Lougheed family, would become the MLA for a constituency named after Peter Lougheed. As a Member of Parliament, Kenney was quoted in 1999 describing the “neo-Stalinist make-work projects of the Lougheed and Getty years.“
Presented with the chance to directly challenge Kenney, will Liberal Party leader David Khan carry his party’s banner in the by-election? His chance of victory are slim to none, but it would give him an opportunity to campaign and potentially face Kenney in any local all-candidates debates (if Kenney participates).
David Khan
The by-election also provides an opportunity for the Alberta Party to run a candidate. The party did not participate in the last Calgary by-election in Calgary-Greenway, but the recent floor-crossing of former NDP MLA Karen McPherson and potential future floor-crossings by former PC MLAs could provide some momentum for the upstart party.
The Calgary-Lougheed constituency was first created in 1993 and was represented by Provincial Treasurer Jim Dinning until 1997. PC MLA Marlene Graham then represented the constituency until 2004, when Rodney was first elected.
This would be the second time in recent history that a sitting MLA resigned in order to allow a party leader to run in a by-election. Len Webber resigned as MLA for Calgary-Foothills in 2014 to trigger a by-election for PC Party leader Jim Prentice. And in 1998, former Liberal Party leader Grant Mitchell stepped down as MLA for Edmonton-McClung to allow new party leader Nancy MacBeth to run in a by-election.
I have created a dedicated webpage to track party nominations and the candidates running in the Calgary-Lougheed by-election.
Here is a look at election results from Calgary-Lougheed for the General Elections from 1993 to 2015:
Jean told reporters that he declined to accept any critic role, and despite the ill will generated towards each other in the leadership race, it seems hard to believe Kenney would completely shut-out the former party leader.
But this move, or lack thereof, will undoubtably fuel rumours that Jean is considering leaving politics. His resignation would trigger a by-election in the Fort McMurray-Conklin constituency, which he has represented since May 2015.
United Conservative Party of Alberta leader Jason Kenney.
When the Legislative Assembly resumes for its fall sitting on Monday, there will be a new seating plan.
Brian Jean
A new Official Opposition United Conservative Caucus made up of twenty-two former Wildrose MLAs and six former Progressive Conservative MLAs will make its debut.
Leading the new United Conservative Party Caucus will be former Member of Parliament Jason Kenney, who won yesterday’s leadership vote with 61 percent, defeating former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean, who finished with 31 percent, and Calgary lawyerDoug Schweitzer, who finished a distant third with 7 percent.
Kenney does not have a seat in the Assembly and indicated today that Calgary-Lougheed MLA Dave Rodney will resign on November 1, 2017 in order to create a by-election for his party’s new leader. Rodney was first elected in 2004.
David Eggen
As the new leader of the Official Opposition, Kenney will face some immediate issues as the Assembly reconvenes. He will need to reorganize his caucus office staff, reassign his party’s MLAs to new critic roles, and set an opposition agenda for the next 16 months. Kenney will do his best to avoid the bozo–eruptions that plagued the former Wildrose MLAs in his UCP caucus and pivot to issues that will solidify his party’s conservative base.
As Kenney enters his new role as the new face of Conservatism in Alberta, the NDP will hope that Albertans forgive their more unpopular policies when reminded of the new UCP leader’s more bizarre social conservative views and rhetoric.
Eggen has said most schools have been working with the province to establish codes of conduct against discrimination and adopt policies to protect LGBTQ youth, but a small group of mostly publicly-subsidized private schools are resisting. This bill could reignite the debate over the existence of publicly-subsidized private schools, some of which charge tens of thousands of tuition per student in order to attend.
Rachel Notley
Despite calls from their political allies, Notley’s NDP government has avoided overhauling the structure of Alberta’s school system. But open resistance by private schools over GSAs, and by publicly-funded Catholic Superintendents wanting to dumb-down the Sexual Education curriculum, could force a debate over accountability of public funds being provided to these religious schools.
Kenney has been a vocal supporter of the Catholic schools, claiming that Notley’s opposition to a dumbed-down Sexual Education curriculum is the “statist ideology of the NDP on steroids.”
Of course, Notley is not telling publicly-funded Catholic schools not to teach Catholicism, she is telling them that they must teach consent and acknowledge the existence of homosexuality (welcome to the 21st century).
Alberta is one of a few remaining provinces that provides full public funding to Catholic schools. Former PC MLA David King, who served as education minister from 1979 to 1986, has collected close to 1,000 signatures in an online petitiondemanding a referendum on the future of publicly funded Catholic schools in Alberta.
David King
On the flip-side, as Kenney enters his role as UCP leader, he will hope that Albertans forgive his more bizarre social conservative views and rhetoric when reminded of the NDP’s more unpopular policies.
We can expect Kenney to spend a lot of time criticizing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has developed a relatively friendly working relationship with Notley’s government on issues ranging from oil pipeline construction to climate change. With deep connections to the Conservatives in Ottawa, expect a Kenney-led UCP to march in lockstep with their federal cousins on these issues.
Justin Trudeau
Notley’s NDP subtly shifted their messaging last year, focusing on launching new programs and projects they argue will “make lives better for Albertans.” This will provide the NDP with a significant contrast to the Kenney-led UCP, who they will argue would attack public services and hurt Alberta families.
Kenney has said that if he becomes Premier in 2019, the months that follow would be known as the “Summer of Repeal” as his government would immediately move to repeal legislation passed by the NDP since 2015. The trouble with Kenney’s promise to repeal all of the NDP’s agenda is that, despite anger from conservatives still bitter from losing the 2015 election, some of the changes introduced by Notley’s NDP are popular among Albertans.
Would a UCP government cancel the construction of the Cancer Treatment Centre and the Green Line in Calgary or the new hospital in south Edmonton? Would a UCP government increase school fees and cancel the $25/day childcare program? Would Kenney close schools and hospitals, like his political role model Ralph Klein did in the 1990s? Expect the NDP start asking these questions when MLAs meet in Edmonton tomorrow.
This weekend’s UCP leadership vote and the resumption of the Legislative session tomorrow marks a huge change in Alberta’s political landscape. Alberta politics has changed drastically over the past two years, and even the past decade. The next few weeks, and the next 16 months, in Alberta politics will be fascinating to watch.
The Progressive Conservatives held their first “Super Saturday” on Feb. 21, 2015, during which contested nominations were held in seven constituencies. The handful of contested PC nominations have been overshadowed by the nearly forty acclamations by incumbent PC MLAs across the province.
The Liberal Party, still without a permanent leader after Raj Sherman‘s abrupt resignation in Jan. 2015, has opened candidate nominations in all 87 constituencies and have made notice on their website that all Liberal nominations must be complete by March 1, 2015. If the Liberals are actually able to nominate candidates in all 87 constituencies in the next seven days, it will be a busy week on this blog.
Bonnyville-Cold Lake: Cold Lake Mayor Craig Copeland defeated former Wildrose nomination candidate Dixie Dahlstedt in the PC nomination. Some local party members complained about the lack of multiple voting locations in the rural constituency and the police were called to the voting station after an allegedly intoxicated man caused a disturbance. A Municipal District of Bonnyville councillor told the Cold Lake Sun that alleged he was the man removed by the RCMP and he was not intoxicated. Current PC MLA Genia Leskiw is not seeking re-election.
Calgary-Buffalo: Lawyer David Khan will seek the Liberal nomination in this downtown Calgary constituency. Buffalo is currently represented by Liberal MLA Kent Hehr, who is running for the federal Liberals in Calgary-Centre, and has elected Liberals in six of the eight elections held since 1986. Mr. Khan was his party’s candidate in the 2014 Calgary-West by-election where he earned 8.5% of the vote.
David Khan
Calgary-Bow: David Gamble is seeking the Liberal nomination. According to his Facebook Page, Mr. Gamble is the President and CEO of Dandly Writing and Communications.
Calgary-Cross: Seven candidates are seeking the PC nomination in this northeast Calgary constituency – Dan Singh Sidhu, Mohamed El-Rafih, Jesse Minhas, Manjit Jaswal, Hardeep Rai, Hirde Paul, and Bill Kahlon. The constituency has been represented by PC MLA Yvonne Fritz since 1993. She is not seeking re-election.
Calgary-Currie: Pat Murray is seeking the Liberal nomination. Mr. Murray was the Liberal Party candidate in Calary-Currie in the 2001 election and Calgary-North Hill in 2004 and 2008 elections. He also ran as a federal PC candidate in Calgary-Nose Hill in the 1997 federal election.
Richard Gotfried
Calgary-Fish Creek: Richard Gotfried defeated Myles McDougall to become the PC candidate. The constituency is currently represented by Wildrose MLA Heather Forsyth, who is not seeking re-election.
Calgary-Foothills: Electrical engineer Ali Bin Zahid is seeking the Liberal nomination to run against Premier Jim Prentice in the next election.
Calgary-Glenmore: David Waddington is the nominated Liberal Party candidate.
Calgary-Hawkwood: Beth Barberee has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate.
Calgary-McCall: Realtor Avinash Khangura is seeking the Liberal nomination. The constituency is currently represented by Liberal MLA Darshan Kang, who is now the federal Liberal candidate in the Calgary-Skyview constituency.
Stephanie McLean
Calgary-Mountain View: Former MLA Mark Hlady defeated Mr. Prentice’s former Chief of Staff Jean-Sebastien Rioux and Lynn Moen in the PC nomination. Mr. Hlady was the MLA from 1993 until 2004, when he was unseated by the current Liberal MLA, David Swann.
Calgary-North West: First-term PC MLA and former cabinet minister Sandra Jansen defeated past city council candidate Blair Houston in the PC nomination.
Calgary-Varsity: Stephanie McLean was nominated as the NDP candidate in this northwest Calgary constituency. Ms. McLean was the NDP candidate in the recent Calgary-Elbow by-election and is also her party’s federally nominated candidate in Calgary-Confederation. Paramedic Pete Helfrich is the nominated Liberal Party candidate. Mr. Helfrich ran for the Liberals in Banff-Cochrane in the 2012 election.
Jamie Lall
Chestermere-Rockyview: Jamie Lall is challenging Wildrose-turned-PC MLA Bruce McAllister for the PC nomination. Mr. Lall was his party’s 2012 candidate in the Calgary-Buffalo constituency.
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview: First-term NDP MLA Deron Bilous has been acclaimed as his party’s candidate in the next election.
Edmonton-Calder: Ministerial Chief of Staff Tom Bradley has been acclaimed as the PC candidate in this northeast Edmonton constituency current represented by NDP MLA David Eggen. Mr. Bradley is currently the Chief of Staff to Infrastructure Minister Manmeet Bhullar and also served as Base Commander for CFB Edmonton from 2009 to 2011 and Chief of Operations for Task Force Kandahar in Afghanistan from 2007 to 2008.
Chris Labossiere
Edmonton-Meadowlark: Steve Benson is challenging former Globe & Mail reporter Katherine O’Neill for the PC nomination. Former Catholic School District Trustee Debbie Cavaliere is said to been collecting signatures to contest the Liberal nomination. In 2008, Ms. Cavaliere challenged Raj Sherman in the Meadowlark PC nomination contest before withdrawing, switching parties and unsuccessfully running against him in that year’s election as the Liberal candidate. Dr. Sherman, who joined the Liberals in 2011 after becoming leader, is not seeking re-election.
Edmonton-Rutherford: Businessman and Edmonton enthusiast Chris Labossiere will face management consultant Grant Mann for the PC nomination. Mr. Labossiere has earned the endorsements of City Councillor Michael Walters, public school trustee Michael Janz, former Premier Dave Hancock, Edmonton Economic Development Corp. CEO Brad Ferguson and Poppy Barley CEO Kendall Barber, among others.
Rachel Notley
Edmonton-Strathcona: NDP leader Rachel Notley has been acclaimed as her party’s candidate in the next election. Former NDP MP Olivia Chow is scheduled to speak at Ms. Notley’s nomination meeting on March 1, 2015.
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo: Tracy McKinnon, chairperson of the Fort McMurray Catholic School District, is challenging first-term PC MLA Mike Allen for that party’s nomination. Mr. Allen achieved national notoriety in 2013 when he was charged in a prostitution sting while on government-funded trip to Minneapolis, Minnesota. He pleaded guilty to the charge in December 2013 and paid a $500 fine and court costs. Following the incident, he sat as an Independent MLA until July 2014, when PC MLAs voted to allow him to rejoin the Government Caucus.
Danielle Smith
Highwood: Wildrose leader-turned-PC MLA Danielle Smith will face Okotoks town councillor Carrie Fischer in the PC nomination contest. Joel Windsor is running for the Alberta Party.
Medicine Hat: Wildrose-turned-PC MLA Blake Pedersen defeated former city councillor John Hamill and realtor Jeff Lanigan. Mr. Pedersen faced harsh criticism form his opponents in a recent nomination debate. “I will die on my sword before I cross the floor… people who cross the floor have no honour,” Mr. Hamill said of Mr. Pedersen.
Dustin Nau and local radio personality Val Olson are running for Wildrose nomination in Medicine Hat. Mr. Nau was his party’s 2012 election candidate in Calgary-Foothills.
Peace River: Debbie Jabbour is seeking the NDP nomination.
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre: Tammy Cote defeated former Lacombe County Reeve Terry Engan in the PC nomination contest. Ms. Cote is the grand-niece of former PC MLA and lieutenant-governor Helen Hunley.
Spruce Grove-St. Albert: Rus Matichuk defeated former St. Albert city councillor Neil Kortash and government spokesperson Kathleen Range to become the PC candidate. The constituency was formerly represented by former Finance Minister Doug Horner, who resigned as MLA on Jan. 31, 2015.
Seven more PC MLAs have been acclaimed, bringing the total number of acclaimed PC candidates to 39: Moe Amery in Calgary-East, Dave Rodney in Calgary-Lougheed, David Dorward in Edmonton-Gold Bar, Steve Young in Edmonton-Riverview, Jacquie Fenske in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, Greg Weadick in Lethbridge-West and Richard Starke in Vermilion-Lloydminster.
I have added these updates to the list of nominees and nomination candidates planning to run in Alberta’s next general election. Please email david.cournoyer [at] gmail.com if there are additions to the list. Thank you.
Here is a look at election results from Calgary-Lougheed for the General Elections from 1993 to 2015:
