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Alberta Politics

Calgary Stampeding: It looks like Danielle Smith is making a big comeback in the UCP leadership race

There’s not much of anything that is constant in Alberta politics these days, maybe except for the Calgary Stampede.

At least in some non-pandemic years, it’s the Northern Star of Alberta politics. It’s the must attend event for political aspirants of all stripes, from Prime Ministers to aspiring future Premiers.

The Stampede is back in full force this year, with last year’s disastrous “Best Summer Ever” disaster unfortunately an almost distant memory, even though its a big reason why we are where we are today in Alberta politics.

And for anyone watching the Stampede, even this writer from his perch in Edmonton, the race to replace Jason Kenney as Premier and leader of the United Conservative Party was on display as urbanites of all stripes dusted off their cowboys hats and plaid shirts for the week of pancake breakfasts and beer tents.

The big talk of the town this week is Danielle Smith’s unexpectedly strong comeback in the UCP leadership race.

Jim Prentice Danielle Smith Alberta Wildrose Merger PC
Former Wildrose leader Danielle Smith and Premier Jim Prentice on December 17, 2014.

Most political watchers will remember her downfall after a treacherous floor-crossing nearly destroyed the Wildrose Party and helped created the conditions for Rachel Notley to lead her NDP to sweep the province in 2015. (Real political nerds will remember her time on the disastrous Calgary Board of Education from 1998 to 1999, but that’s for another column).

But what we politicos may have missed is that a lot of Albertans, including the thousands who have signed up to support her and are showing up to her campaign events in droves, remember her from her more recent role as the host of a popular talk radio show.

Smith has always been a talented political communicator, despite some high-profile flameouts.

She knows how to talk to conservatives, and it just happens there are a lot of those in Alberta.

Danielle Smith United Conservative Party leadership event Airdrie
Danielle Smith speaking to a crowd at a campaign event in Airdrie (source: Twitter)

It’s not clear how many UCP MLAs support her separatist-leaning “Alberta First” campaign or her dipping into COVID conspiracy theories, but she has nabbed at least one endorsement from the governing caucus – Airdrie-Cochrane MLA Peter Guthrie.

Smith hasn’t held a seat in the Legislature sine 2015 but she’s challenging MLA Roger Reid for the UCP nomination in Livingstone-Macleod. And recently she said she would reopen nomination contests some party activists believe were unfairly stacked in favour of Kenney loyalists, a move that is unlikely to endear her to most current UCP MLAs.

Her comeback would be the political story of the year, and while Premier Danielle Smith is far from a sure thing, she is certainly driving the narrative of the UCP leadership campaign. She’s tapped into a motivated group of Alberta conservatives unhappy with the status-quo.

Those are probably the people Kenney referred to as “lunatics.”

And they might just be the mainstream of the UCP right now.

Even the perceived frontrunner is responding to Smith.

Travis Toews (source: Twitter)
Travis Toews (source: Twitter)

Establishment favourite Travis Toews followed Smith’s lead with a milquetoast “Enough is Enough” social media meme opposing COVID-19 vaccinations. It’s not clear what message he was trying to telegraph.

It was the kind of vague response you would expect from a frontrunner campaign, wanting to respond and not offend but failing at both.

Toews also released a list of autonomist policies that read like they were copied and pasted from 2020’s Fair Deal Panel report.

Smith and Toews aren’t alone.

Brian Jean is hitting the same notes, though he’s running a sleepier than expected campaign. Still, Fort McMurray’s Golden Boy shouldn’t be underestimated.

Independent MLA Todd Loewen is also hitting the same notes on separatist and anti-COVID health measures but his chances of winning appear much less likely than the others in this pack.

Rachel Notley and St. Albert MLA Marie Renaud at the Calgary Stampede.
Rachel Notley and St. Albert MLA Marie Renaud at the Calgary Stampede. (source: Twitter)

Smith’s extreme positions are probably leaving Rachel Notley’s NDP salivating at the opportunity to run against an extremist right-wing UCP that would leave a lot of Albertans alienated.

Two months ago, Notley’s victory in Alberta’s next election looked like a sure bet, but Kenney’s resignation announcement gave his party a bump in the polls and now it’s a race.

Notley and her MLAs have basically decamped to Calgary for the summer, showing up at every event and taking every chance to door knock with their growing slate of local candidates that includes former city councillor Druh Farrell in Calgary-Bow, energy analyst Samir Kayande in Calgary-Elbow, sustainable energy expert Nagwan Al-Guneid in Calgary-Glenmore. Canadian Forces veteran Marilyn North Peigan in Calgary-Klein, and physician Luanne Metz in Calgary-Varsity.

It’s probably the closest thing Calgary has seen to a Progressive Conservative slate since 2015 but the NDP still have a lot of hard work ahead of them to convince Calgarians to vote for them en masse in 2023.

But the UCP leadership candidate the NDP might fear the most so far hasn’t been playing the same cards as Smith, Toews, Jean and Loewen.

Rebecca Schulz United Conservative Party leadership candidate
Rebecca Schulz (source: Twitter)

Rebecca Schulz is one candidate to watch.

The first-term MLA from Calgary-Shaw and former children’s service minister had already nabbed an endorsement from Rona Ambrose but the former interim Conservative Party leader is now chairing her campaign.

Schulz also released an endorsement from former Saskatchewan cabinet minister and Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers president Tim McMillan, who joined former Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall in supporting her.

Schulz and her husband were political staffers in Wall’s government before moving to Calgary seven years ago and her husband worked for McMillan as VP Communications of CAPP.

It’s hard to tell where her politics are. Schulz seems more moderate than the rest of the pack, which isn’t saying much, but how much more moderate is not clear.

Along with her political establishment connections, Schulz might become a pretty appealing candidate if there are enough UCP members left who don’t want to fight the next election on COVID conspiracy theories and Alberta separatism.

At the very least, there might actually be enough Saskatchewan expats alone living in Alberta to win a leadership race.

And I would be remise if I failed to mention the other candidates who are also busy yahooing their way through the Stampede.

Rajan Sawhney is running an outsiders campaign, leaning on her years of business experience. She is also a candidate to watch.

Leela Aheer appears to be running for the leadership of a completely different party, but that hasn’t saved her from dirty tricks. Someone bought LeelaAheer.ca and is pointing it to an old Daveberta article about the nasty nomination contest she faced in 2018 (I don’t own the domain name, I swear).

Raj Sherman showed up at the Stampede with a decal-clad pickup truck and his campaign has been making robo-calls, despite being told he won’t be allowed to be on the ballot.

Former bank executive Jon Horsman is running.

And, to no one’s surprise, Village of Amisk Mayor Bill Rock dropped out, citing the high $175,000 candidate entry fee.

It’s a dog’s breakfast, and really could be anyone’s race to win.

There’s strategy at play, for sure, but as one experienced campaign strategist said to me last week, when it comes to leadership campaigns, a lot more depends on dumb luck than people think.

The UCP has announced it plans to hold Official Leadership debates in Medicine Hat on July 27 and Edmonton on August 30.

6 replies on “Calgary Stampeding: It looks like Danielle Smith is making a big comeback in the UCP leadership race”

It is good to see politicians get into the spirit of things and of course, they want to go where the crowds are. However, I am not sure showing up or making a flashy appearance equals success.

After some initial success and later mixed results in the US, the populist style seems to be catching on more with conservatives in Canada. I suspect it might be easier for the Federal Conservatives who can say all sorts of things to appeal to people, but don’t actually have to govern for the next few years.

If we should have learned anything from the Kenney years, it is easy to stir up crowds and play to existing grievances. However, it is harder to actually accomplish what is promised. So I suspect at least some of the politicians making a splash at the Stampede will turn out later to be as the saying goes “All hat, no cattle”.

When you describe ds’ attempt to unite the right as treacherous it makes you look like an ndp shill. When you ascribe this action as the reason for an ndp victory you delve into conspiracy theory territory. There is nothing to it but negative narrative. Does she scare you that much? As to kenney describing grass roots in an inappropriate fashion. Maybe he would have a different opinion now?

Bret Larson: Danielle Smith’s own track record proves that she is unfit to govern. The NDP aren’t responsible for the UCP’s proven shortcomings, which have cost Albertans a great deal of money, and even their lives, from Covid-19 pandemic response bungling.

I agree, the fist requirement of governing is to make sure other jurisdictions don’t use your population as door mats. I guess the ndp is out.

Danielle Smith was completely ineffectual when she had her chance with Wild Rose. Even Jason Kenney has accomplished more, whch adds up to much less than nothing in his time as premier.

She is simply smoke and mirrors with no real intelligent solutions for Alberta and she needs to be kicked off the race for the UCP.

This just goes to show how divided and hypocritical the UCP really is. Separatists, US-style capitalists, anti-federals, anarchists, right wing extremists, poorly-educated, greed-lovers, and misinformed constitutionalists make up the voting populace of the Alberta Conservatives. Danielle Smith is just another useless political ghost offering promises of gold-plated dog crap to people who need real leadership.

Do we turn to NDP? Alberta is needing healthcare and education reforms, but we can’t afford the NDP spending platform.

The Libs have no foothold in Alberta and the federal Libs clearly have no interest in the West side of Canada unless it means a deliberately-missed ceremony for the discovery of residential school graves in BC.

Maverick party? Please continue to drive your Freedom Convoy directly into the ocean and just go away. They are not accomplishing anything to help anyone but themselves, and are making Alberta and Canada look like a bunch of morons.

There is currently no world leader to have faith in, unless you look at Zelensky in Ukraine. That is a real leader, even if he was a comedian and actor previously. He is trying to keep his country safe from a bunch of Russian cowards, and is solely focused on trying to keep his country alive. What political leader is currently taking these brave measures? That’s right, none.

Pretty poor that Danielle Smith could even be considered to lead a province, she couldn’t lead a Girl Scout troop without draining their lunch money on new uniforms….

Rather odd to see “aspiring” politicians (Pollievre and Smith) pose in front of an ad for Export A cigarettes. Areless mistake, or deliberate provocation? Either way, it is very odd!

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