We had a broad-ranging discussion about Alberta politics, the current separatist movement’s roots in the COVID-19 pandemic and how its supporters became key players inside the United Conservative Party, and who might lead the pro-Canada campaign in a possible separation referendum later this year.
We covered a lot of ground in this discussion but I’m remiss for going through the list players in the separatism debate without mentioning the role of First Nations communities and the Treaties signed between First Nations and the Crown. That’s another important layer to this political debate.
Thank you to Joseph and Andrew for inviting me on their podcast. Be sure to subscribe to Craft Politics on your podcast listening app of choice or watch their interviews on YouTube.
Alberta Belongs in Canada
I will be joining Edmonton Strathcona MP Heather McPherson and other guests on Sunday, February 15 for an online discussion about Alberta’s role in Canada at her Alberta Belongs In Canada event. McPherson is running for the leadership of the New Democratic Party of Canada.
Alberta separatist leaders Dr. Dennis Modry (left) and Mitch Sylvestre (right) with Premier Danielle Smith (centre) at the UCP fundraising dinner in Bonnyville in May 2025 (source: Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP / Facebook)
The time to stand up for a Strong Alberta within a Strong Canada is now.
It’s still unclear who will lead the pro-Canada side in a referendum campaign that could happen as early as fall of this year. This is likely because a lot of prominent supporters of federalism in Alberta have had a hard time believing Albertans would vote in favour of separation or that a referendum will even be held in the first place.
Polls show support for Alberta leaving Canada sits at around 28 per cent and drops to 15 per cent when people are faced with the possible consequences, but this is not the time for Albertans who also count themselves as proud Canadians to be complacent.
In another time, the Premier of Alberta would be a strong voice against separatism, but Danielle Smith is now leading a party with an activist base deeply engaged in the separatist movement and she is not interested in upsetting that base of supporters.
Minister of Hospital and Surgical Health Services Matt Jones and Premier Danielle Smith at a government press conference in December 2025 (source: Alberta Newsroom / Flickr)
After months of speculation, Premier Danielle Smith said during her 2025 year-end interviews that she isn’t planning to call an early election in 2026, but anyone who pays attention to politics knows: circumstances change.
The next provincial general election is scheduled to happen in October 2027 but there continues to be wide speculation that an early election could be called — and there are plenty of reasons to believe why.
Smith’s UCP remains ahead of Naheed Nenshi’s Alberta NDP in the polls and the governing party continues to raise large amounts of donations. And there is little doubt that Smith remains one of the most effective and shrewd political communicators in Alberta and in Canada’s conservative movement.
Top 10 closest Alberta races in Canada's 2025 election
It’s been just over three months since Election Day in Canada and, as the dust has settled, I’ve taken a closer look at the results in ridings across Alberta.
The Conservative Party continued its decades-long streak of electoral dominance in federal elections in Alberta as it saw its support jump to 63.5 percent from 55.4 percent in 2021 (though it is still lower than the 69 percent the Conservatives earned in Alberta in 2019). The Conservatives had strong showings in every part of the province, but especially in rural Alberta where the party’s candidates were elected with huge margins of victory.
Alberta’s two largest cities, Calgary and Edmonton, were home to the most interesting and most competitive races of the federal election in our province. The races with the narrowest margins of victory were in the cities, and the three closest races were in Calgary, which not long ago was considered a Conservative stronghold.
One of Daveberta’s first rules of Alberta politics is to never underestimate the Conservatives, and that rule appears to have held true last night as votes in the federal election were counted across the province.
At the time I am publishing this, Conservative Party candidates are elected in 34 of 37 ridings in Alberta. This makes them a significant block in what will be a 144 MP Conservative Opposition in Ottawa. This is a larger Conservative caucus than existed before this election but falls far short of the huge majority government the Conservatives were expecting Pierre Poilievre would lead them to only a few months ago. The Liberal Party led by Prime Minister Mark Carney were re-elected with 168 seats, including two in Alberta.
It’s Election Day in Canada and the polls are open from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. in Alberta. If you aren’t one of the 815,131 Albertans who voted in the Advance Polls, then be sure to find your voting station and cast a ballot today.
While voters in most of Alberta’s 37 federal electoral districts are expected to elect their local Conservative Party candidate tonight, there are a few ridings that are expected to be competitive. Here are a few Alberta ridings I will be watching closely tonight…
Jagmeet Singh, Pierre Poilievre, and maybe Mark Carney make final stops in Alberta
Canada’s federal election is four days away and most polls are pointing to a big national victory for Mark Carney’s Liberal Party. While the national polls show the gap between Carney’s party and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives slightly tightening, the Liberal lead in Ontario and Atlantic Canada looks insurmountable unless something drastic happens before April 28.
While most of Alberta’s federal ridings will be solidly Conservative blue on election night, the province’s two biggest cities could produce some interesting results. I haven’t seen any actual riding-level polls, which are both expensive and difficult to conduct, but most national polls show the Liberals with around 30 percent support in Alberta. This would represent the largest percentage of votes for the federal Liberals in Alberta since 1968.
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre and former Prime Minister Stephen Harper at an election rally in Edmonton on April 7, 2025 (source: Pierre Poilievre / Facebook)
It was Alberta Week in Canada’s federal election campaign
It was Alberta Week in the federal election campaign with the two party leaders who grew up in the western province returning to wave their party flags and rally supporters.
Finance Minister Nate Horner, pension engagement panel chairperson Jim Dinning, and Premier Danielle Smith (source: YouTube screenshot)
“More Alberta, less Ottawa”
Alberta’s United Conservative Party government opened up a new front in its fight for more provincial autonomy with a proposal to withdraw Alberta workers from the Canada Pension Plan and create an Alberta Pension Plan.
Premier Danielle Smith joined Finance Minister Nate Horner and pension engagement panel chairperson and former finance minister Jim Dinning on stage to announce a sunshine and apple pie forecast for a new Alberta Pension Plan.
Danielle Smith and Rob Anderson in the Media Room at the Alberta Legislature in 2010 (Source: Dave Cournoyer).
As a columnist, Smith was a harsh critic of “unreliable” renewable energy
The United Conservative Party government’s decision to impose an immediate 7-month moratorium on all new major wind and solar energy projects in Alberta came as a surprise to many political watchers.
The drastic decision was sudden and it wasn’t featured in any of the UCP’s campaign promises in the election held only 75 days ago. But anyone who has paid close attention to now-Premier Danielle Smith’s newspaper and radio commentary knows she has not hidden her deeply critical and skeptical views of wind and solar power.
A map of tonight’s federal election results in Alberta would show a sea of Conservative Party blue, but if you zoomed in on the two largest urban centres the results are more interesting.
It looks like 29 Conservative incumbents were re-elected, many with margins of victory that are large but narrower than the party’s results in the 2019 federal election.
With 71 per cent of the vote, it appears that Battle River-Crowfoot Conservative Damien Kurek was elected with the largest percentage of the vote. This is down from his 85.5 per cent of the vote in 2019.
The only new Conservative candidate elected in Alberta is Laila Goodridge, a former United Conservative Party MLA who was elected in Fort McMurray-Cold Lake.
As of 11:14pm it looks like Liberal Party candidate George Chahal has been elected in Calgary-Skyview, unseating Conservative Jag Sahota in the northeast Calgary riding.
In Edmonton-Centre, Liberal Randy Boissonnault sits with 33 per cent of the vote ahead of Conservative incumbent James Cumming with 31 per cent and NDP candidate Heather Mackenzie with 30 per cent.
If successful in his bid for election, Boissonnault will likely join Chahal in the federal Liberal cabinet as the two Liberals from Alberta.The race in Edmonton-Centre marks a breakthrough for the NDP with Mackenzie earning the party’s best ever result in the riding.
With NDP incumbent Heather McPherson re-elected with a commanding 59 per cent in Edmonton-Strathcona, it looks like the NDP may have picked up a second seat in Edmonton. As of 11:17pm, Edmonton-Griesbach NDP candidate Blake Desjarlais was leading Conservative incumbent Kerry Diotte by 557 votes with 194 of 232 polls reporting.
The NDP poured a lot of resources into Desjarlais’ campaign, with party leader Jagmeet Singh visiting the riding twice during the election and Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley and local MLAs including Janis Irwin lending their support.
The mail-in ballots could help determine the final results in Edmonton-Centre and Edmonton-Griesbach. Elections Canada starts counting those tomorrow.
The Conservative vote dropped to 55 per cent from 69 per cent in the 2019 election. The NDP vote was up to 19 per cent, a big increase from 11 per cent in 2019 and even more than the 16 per cent the NDP earned during Jack Layton‘s Orange Wave of 2011. The Liberal vote is at 15 per cent, up from 13 per cent in 2019.
The People’s Party earned 7 per cent, placing a distant second in most rural ridings but not coming anywhere close to winning a seat in the province. The separatist Maverick Party was a lot of talk but barely showed up on the radar.
Ontario MP Derek Sloan, who moved to Alberta in hopes to win a seat was defeated in Banff-Airdrie, placing fifth with 2 per cent of the vote.
But the biggest loser of the night in Alberta is Premier Jason Kenney, who’s refusal to act early and prevent the deadly fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic damaged Erin O’Toole and the federal Conservatives in the final week of the federal election.
Kenney is expected to face serious questions about his leadership when United Conservative Party MLAs meet for a caucus meeting on Wednesday. There are rumours that Kenney might even be forced to resign as Premier.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh makes a health care announcement outside the East Edmonton Health Centre
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh spent today campaigning in Edmonton-Griesbach with local candidate Blake Desjarlais, who the party believes is in a position to defeat Conservative candidate Kerry Diotte.
Jagmeet Singh speaks to Alberta nurses and health care workers.
Singh started the day with a health care announcement outside the East Edmonton Health Centre with Desjarlais, Edmonton-Strathcona MP Heather McPherson and a group of nurses and health care workers.
During his announcement Singh criticized the Liberals for not doing enough to improve affordability of long-term care and hold the corporations that run long-term care centres to account after outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“He voted against getting rid of profit from long-term care, making it clear he would rather protect the interests of the for-profit, billion-dollar corporations that profit off the backs of seniors, rather than putting seniors first,” Singh said.
Blake Desjarlais
This puts Justin Trudeau, who made his own seniors care announcement in Victoria today, in a difficult position of not wanting to engage in an important but largely provincial issue that could sour relations with other provincial governments, like Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.
As noted in my previous post, unlike the last federal election campaign, Alberta NDP MLAs are campaigning alongside some federal NDP candidates in this election.
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood MLA Janis Irwin, Edmonton-Glenora MLA Sarah Hoffman, and Edmonton-South MLA Thomas Dang were at an afternoon rally outside the Bellevue Community Hall where a crowd of NDP supporters gathered to cheer on Singh, Desjarlais and other areas candidates, including Edmonton-Centre candidate and former public school board trustee Heather Mackenzie.
This is a significant shift in federal-provincial NDP relations, which were much frostier during the 2019 federal election when the dominant issues were the carbon tax and pipelines.
Jason Kenney (source: Facebook)
In another sign of changing times, Singh used his visit to Alberta to leverage the declining popularity of Premier Jason Kenney, especially on his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and his decision to attack frontline nurses, doctors, and health care workers.
Kenney has been conspicuously missing from the campaign trail, scheduling a vacation instead (when he returns he will be without a Principal Secretary, as Larry Kaumeyer is leaving the Premier’s Office to become the new head of Ducks Unlimited).
While Kenney will likely pop up campaigning for a candidate somewhere, it is a considerable difference from 2019 when the Alberta Premier spent an entire week campaigning for Conservative Party candidates in Ontario and Manitoba.
In 2019, Kenney was seen as an asset for Andrew Scheer. In 2021, he might be a liability for Erin O’Toole.
Trudeau touches down in Calgary-Skyview
Justin Trudeau and George Chahal (source: Twitter)
Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau’s plane touched down in Calgary tonight to make a quick campaign stop in support of Calgary-Skyview candidate and City Councillor George Chahal.
“With the right representation, we can build prosperous communities. We need to diversify our economy, invest in infrastructure like we did with Airport Trail and the Green Line and we must continue to do so with public infrastructure such as the expansion of the Blue Line, Arts Common, and the development of the multi-sport fieldhouse at the Foothills Athletic Park,” said Chahal in a press release following the event.
Voters in the district, in which the Calgary International Airport is located, elected former Liberal MLA Darshan Kang in 2015 and Conservative Jag Sahota in 2019.
Banff gets a new kind of tourist
Supported by former Conservative MPs Rob Anders and Eric Lowther, Ontario MP Derek Sloan announced his plans to run as an Independent candidate in Banff-Airdrie.
The first-term former Conservative from southeast Ontario has been travelling around Alberta for the past month speaking at rallies of anti-vaxxer and COVID-19 conspiracy theorists.
The political tourist claims he wants to “Make Alberta Great Again.”
Sloan will challenge Conservative MP Blake Richards, who was re-elected in 2019 with 71.09 per cent of the vote.
Candidates say the dumbest things
We have not entered the “airing of dumb things candidates have said on social media” phase of the federal election campaign. The Conservative Party released a statement from Calgary-Nose Hill candidate Michelle Rempel Garner attacking Liberal candidate Jessica Dale-Walker for a March 2020 tweet that said “Fit in or fuck off. We Alberta need to start fitting in. Because quite frankly, we are not as superior as our government touts.”
Dale-Walker responded, in a tweet: My tweet last summer was thoughtless and wrong. Thats certainly not how i feel today. I want to be absolutely clear I am double vaccinated and I believe all Canadians, who can, should be. If my brash comments caused anyone to think otherwise, I apologize.”
New candidates
Hugo Charles has been nominated as the NDP candidate in Edmonton-Wetaskiwin.
Kelly Green has been nominated as the Green Party candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona.
The Libertarian Party has nominated Morgan Watson in Edmonton-Griesbach and MalcolmStinson in Edmonton-Strathcona.
The People’s Party has nominated Jacob Cohen in Calgary-Centre, Dwayne Holub in Calgary-Forest Lawn, Ron Vaillant in Calgary-Shepard, Nicholas Debrey in Calgary-Signal Hill, Brock Crocker in Edmonton-Centre, Martin Halvorson in Edmonton-Manning, Jennifer Peace in Edmonton-Riverbend, Wesley Janke in Edmonton-Strathcona, Daniel Hunter in Foothills, Shawn McLean in Grande Prairie-Mackenzie, Ann McCormack in Lakeland, Mardon Day in Red Deer-Lacombe, Kelly Lorencz in Red Deer-MountainView, John Wetterstrand in Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan, and Michael Manchen in Yellowhead,
Edmonton City Councillor Ben Henderson is running for the Liberal Party in Edmonton-Mill Woods
City Councillor Ben Henderson has been acclaimed as the Liberal Party candidate in Edmonton-Mill Woods.
This nomination notice was posted on the Liberal Party of Canada website this evening.
Henderson currently serves as Councillor for Ward 8 and was first elected to City Council in 2007.
“Edmonton Mill Woods deserves strong and effective representation in government, that is why I’m thrilled and honoured to run for the job of serving the community of Mill Woods and the Meadows in Parliament, “ Henderson said in a press statement released on August 10.
“The results of this upcoming coming election are critical to ensuring we recover successfully from COVID-19 and make progress in building a truly prosperous community for ourselves and future generations,” Henderson said.
Before his election to council, Henderson was a Mediator and Negotiator, and before that was a theatre director, working as founding Artistic Director of Nexus Theatre and the Artistic Director of Theatre Network.
Henderson’s municipal ward does not overlap with the south east Edmonton federal riding, which is likely a recognition by the Liberals that their chances of unseating New Democratic Party MP Heather McPherson in Edmonton-Strathcona, which includes all of Henderson’s Ward 8, are slim to none.
Recruiting a four-term city councillor to run in the federal election is a coup for the federal Liberals in Edmonton. Henderson will bring many years of campaign experience and, likely, a dedicated team and resources to his campaign.
Nathalie Batres, who works as Mayor Don Iveson‘s Senior Media and Communications Advisor, is listed as the media contact in Henderson’s press release.
Tim Uppal
Henderson’s candidacy will also likely mean that Conservative Party MP Tim Uppal will be forced to spend more time campaigning inside his riding than if he faced a lesser known Liberal candidate.
Edmonton-Mill Woods was represented by Liberal MP and former city Councillor Amarjeet Sohi from 2015 until his defeat to Uppal in 2019. Sohi is now running for Mayor of Edmonton.
The area was previously represented by Conservative MP Mike Lake from 2006 to 2015 (Lake now represents the neighbouring Edmonton-Wetaskiwin) and Progressive Conservative-turned-Liberal MP David Kilgour from 1979 to 2006.
Also nominated by the Liberal Party today is Shahnaz Jabeen in Calgary-Rocky Ridge.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh with Edmonton-Griesbach candidate Blake Desjarlais and Edmonton-Strathcona MP Heather McPherson on the picket line supporting Local 146 Boilermakers who have been locked out by CESSCO since last summer.
The countdown to Canada’s next federal election is on as cabinet ministers and party leaders drop into Alberta to raise their banners and support their local candidates.
Transport Minister Omar Alghabra with Calgary Liberal candidates George Chahal and Sabrina Grover. (Source: Twitter)
Transport Minister Omar Alghabra was touring through Calgary and made time to attend a rally in support of Calgary-Centre Liberal candidate Sabrina Grover and Calgary-Skyview candidate George Chahal.
And candidate nominations continue ahead of the expected election call. Here are some of the latest federal candidate nominations from across Alberta:
Ron Thiering has been nominated as the Liberal Party candidate in Edmonton-Wetaskiwin. Thiering was the party’s 2019 candidate in the neighbouring Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan and recently lost a contested nomination in that district to Tanya Holm.
Juan Estevez is expected to be nominated as the NDP candidate in Calgary-Centre on August 5.
Sandra Hunter is expected to be nominated as the NDP candidate in Edmonton-West on August 5.
Desiree Bissonnettte is seeking the NDP nomination in Lakeland and is expected to be nominated on August 5.
Gulshan Akter is seeking the NDP nomination in Calgary-Confederation. A nomination meeting is scheduled for August 11. Akter is the managing director of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Education and President and CEO of the Peerless Training Institute, a government-accredited private career college in Calgary. She was the NDP candidate in Calgary-West in the 2019 provincial election, where she placed second with 25.4 per cent of the vote behind United Conservative Party MLA Mike Ellis.
Carey Rutherford is the Green Party candidate in Calgary-Forest Lawn.
Melanie Hoffman is the Green Party candidate in Edmonton-Riverbend.
Calgary City Councillor George Chahal announced this week that he is withdrawing his bid for re-election in the October municipal elections in order to run as the federal Liberal Party candidate in Calgary-Skyview. Chahal, who was first elected to city council in 2017, will face Conservative Party Member of Parliament Jag Sahota, New Democratic Party candidate Gurinder Singh Gill, and People’s Party candidate Harry Dhillon.
The northeast Calgary district was represented by Liberal MP Darshan Kang from 2015 until he left the Liberal caucus in 2017 following allegations of sexual harassment. The former two-term Liberal MLA sat as an Independent until his term was complete and did not seek re-election in 2019.
Rick Peterson out of Conservative race in Edmonton-Strathcona
RIck Peterson is no longer in the race for the Conservative Party of Canada nomination in Edmonton-Strathcona. (Photo source: Facebook)
It appears as though former Conservative Party leadership candidate Rick Peterson is no longer seeking his party’s nomination in Edmonton-Strathcona. While neither Peterson nor the party have made any official public statement, Conservative Party sources say that he was disqualified from the race by the central party.
It now appears likely that his opponent, Tunde Obsan, the only other candidate in the race, will be acclaimed as the Conservative Party candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona. Obasan was the 2019 United Conservative Party candidate in Edmonton-South and is an audit manager with the provincial Department of Alberta Treasury Board and Finance.
Edmonton-Strathcona is currently represented by NDP MP Heather McPherson.
Don Iveson running in Edmonton-Centre?
Don Iveson
Rumours continue to circulate that Edmonton Mayor Don Iveson could seek the federal Liberal nomination in Edmonton-Centre. Rumours about Iveson jumping into federal politics have been around for years, but his decision to not seek re-election as mayor and the proximity to an impending federal election has given new fuel to the speculation.
Iveson was first elected to City Council in 2007 and has served as Mayor since 2013. He is currently the chairperson of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities’ Big City Mayors’ Caucus.
Former Liberal MP Randy Boissonnault, who represented the district from 2015 to 2019, has already announced his intentions to seek his party’s nomination.
Other nominations
The NDP have nominated Shawn Gray in Edmonton Riverbend.
Austin Mullins is now running for the Green Party nomination in Calgary-Centre. Mills had previously announced his intentions to seek the party’s nomination in Banff-Airdire, where he ran in 2019.
The right-wing People’s Party have nominated Dennis Trepanier in Battle River-Crowfoot, Edward Gao in Calgary-Confederation, Jonathan Hagel in Calgary-Midnapore, Kyle Scott in Calgary-Nose Hill, Michael Knoll in Calgary-Shepard, Brent Kinzel in Edmonton-West, Brigitte Yolande Maria Cecelia in St. Albert-Edmonton, and Murray MacKinnon in Sturgeon River-Parkland.
The party has also nominated two time Wildrose Party candidate Darryl Boisson in Peace River-Westlock and is expected to nominate Ben Whyte in Calgary-Rocky Ridge at a meeting on July 29.
The separatist Maverick Party has nominated Orrin Bliss in Bow River, Annelise Freeman in Calgary-Heritage, Josh Wylie in Foothills, and Physical Education and Social Studies teacher Todd Muir in Yellowhead.
