In an October 2014 by-election, Mr. Clark placed a strong second and came within 800 votes of defeating appointed Progressive Conservative Education Minister Gordon Dirks. Liberal candidate Susan Wright placed fourth with 1,519 votes, leading many of Mr. Clark’s supporters to lament the vote split among the two centrist opposition parties (Ms. Wright, aka Susan on the Soapbox, is supporting the NDP in the 2015 election).
Some supporters argued that because the Alberta Party is not nominating a candidate to run against interim Liberal leader David Swann in Calgary-Mountain View or candidate David Khan in Calgary-Buffalo, that the Liberals should not run a candidate against Mr. Clark in Calgary-Elbow.
David Swann
It is easy to understand their frustration.This election could be the Alberta Party’s first real shot at electing an MLA and defeating a sitting cabinet minister, and Liberals could play the role of spoiler.
Even if they do have almost identical policies and positions, it is not the responsibility of one party to help another elect candidates in an election. It may boggle the mind to think why the Liberal and Alberta parties refuse to merge, but the two parties are still opponents. Even if the Liberal Party has no chance of electing an MLA in Calgary-Elbow, the party has every right to run a candidate in that constituency.
Laurie Blakeman
This situation puts Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman in a puzzling position. Seeking a sixth-term as MLA, Ms. Blakeman is running for re-election in Edmonton-Centre and has secured the nominations, or endorsements, of the Alberta Party and Green Party (and in Red Deer-North, Liberal candidate Michael Dawe has also secured the Green Party nomination). The initial response to Ms. Blakeman’s triple-nomination was mixed, but she defended her decision to work with the three centrist opposition parties as an attempt to unite progressive voters.
Ms. Blakeman tweeted her frustration about the Elbow squabble.
I despair over #abparty#ABLiberal fight in Elbow. Unnecessary & harmful. Maybe why we need more women in politics? Less testos, more estra
A map tracking official campaign stops of Alberta's four main political leaders since the election campaign began on April 8, 2015 (Dark Blue: PC; Orange: NDP; Green: Wildrose; Light Blue: Alberta Party; Red: Liberal)
With the first full week of Alberta’s 2015 election campaign coming to an end, I took a look at where the leaders of Alberta’s political parties have visited in the last seven days [see the map above].
The day the writ was dropped, Progressive Conservative leader Jim Prentice hopped into his party’s campaign bus and hit the highway into rural Alberta. First driving through the West Yellowhead constituency, Mr. Prentice’s tour included campaign stops with Finance Minister Robin Campbell and a trip down memory lane to Grande Cache, where he spent part of his childhood.
The PC tour continued through central and southern rural Alberta with a quick stop in Calgary. Much of Mr. Prentice’s first week was dedicated to campaigning in constituencies that voted Wildrose in the last election – Airdrie, Drumheller-Stettler, Highwood, Lacombe-Ponoka, Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Livingstone-Macleod, and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills.
NDP leader Rachel Notley started election with campaign stops in Edmonton, Calgary and Lethbridge. During the first weekend of the campaign, Ms. Notley traveled to Fort McMurray, where she campaigned with candidates Stephen Drover and Ariana Mancini, and participated in the local Firefighters charity event. Upon her return to Edmonton, she was greeted by a crowd of more than 500 NDP supporters at a Sunday afternoon rally at the Citadel Theatre.
Wildrose leader Brian Jean, travelling Alberta in his campaign RV, has made stops in Edmonton, Grande Prairie, and Calgary, but has divided most of his time in rural southern and central Alberta and the two Fort McMurray constituencies (he is running for election in Fort McMurray-Conklin). As the campaign continues, I expect that Mr. Jean will continue to focus on key rural areas of rural Alberta and Calgary, including Strathmore-Brooks, where the Wildrose hope former Taxpayers Federation spokesperson Derek Fildebrandt can win.
Alberta Party leader Greg Clark and Liberal leader David Swann appear to be focusing most of their energies on winning their own constituencies in Calgary, but both have made trips to Edmonton to hold press conferences and campaign with local candidates. Mr. Clark, alongside Edmonton-Gold Bar candidate Cristina Stasia, released the Alberta Party platform at the University of Alberta campus.
Wildrose leader Brian Jean (right) and Strathmore-Brooks candidate Derek Fildebrandt used a comically large arrow to point out tax increases to alcohol included in the PC Party's 2015 pre-election budget.
Recent polls show a three-way split in support between the Progressive Conservatives, New Democratic and Wildrose Parties have generated some interest in Alberta’s provincial election campaign but with 24 days left until voting day we can expect a lot to change. Here is a quick review of what the politicians were saying and political parties were spinning in the first week of this election campaign.
Progressive Conservatives
PC leader Jim Prentice launched his party’s election campaign in Edmonton.
Campaigning on issues related to the March 2015 provincial budget, Progressive Conservative leader Jim Prentice spent most of his week travelling around rural Alberta in his party’s campaign bus.
Mr. Prentice targeted his opponents as extremists while moderating his own tone around Alberta’s economy. Before the election was called, Mr. Prentice’s repeated doom-and-gloom messages led opposition critics to name him “Grim Jim.” The PCs are attempting to present Mr. Prentice as the balanced (a.k.a. safe) candidate, as opposed to the extremist (a.k.a. dangerous) leaders of the opposition.
The recent provincial budget included almost sixty tax and fee increases, including increases to personal taxes but no increases to corporate taxes, which appears to have been a political miscalculation on the part of the PCs. The government’s own budget survey results showed 69% of Albertans support a corporate tax increase, a point the NDP has stressed.
PC MLAs and candidates took to social media to post different variations of a message that 8,900 jobs would be lost if corporate taxes were increased by 1%. It is unclear what study the 8,900 jobs number originates from.
Creating more confusion around corporate tax increases, a PC press release from April 9 stated ‘Prentice pointed out that more than 95% in Alberta are small businesses, employing fewer than 50 people, and questioned those who would put those jobs at risk with a corporate tax increase.” This is a good talking point, if not for the issue that small businesses do not pay corporate tax rates.
According to the Department of Finance website, small businesses earning $500,000 of less profit each year pay a separate 3% small business tax, not the 10% corporate tax applied to companies earning more than $500,000 in profit annually. The PCs dropped the corporate tax rate in Alberta from 15% in 2001 to the current 10% in 2006.
NDP leader Rachel Notley with Calgary candidates on April 8, 2015.
NDP leader Rachel Notleylaunched her party’s election campaign in Edmonton and travelled to Calgary and Lethbridge to campaign with candidates in those cities. It is notable that the NDP are focusing resources on candidates outside of Edmonton, where the party has traditionally been weak. Calgary-Fort candidate Joe Ceci, Calgary-Varsity candidate Stephanie McLean and Lethbridge-West candidate Shannon Phillips were prominently placed at Ms. Notley’s side during photo-ops at these stops
NDP messaging in the first week of the campaign focused on the economy. Ms. Notley announced the creation of a Job Creation Tax Credit for businesses as the first NDP election promise, providing balance from their calls for corporate tax increases. The credit sounds reasonable, but much like the PC Party’s 8,900 job loss argument, I am skeptical about this credit creating 27,000 new jobs. The NDP also announced that in-province refining and upgrading is also a top priority. Before the election was called, Ms. Notley’s unveiled her party’s plans to create a Resource Owners’ Rights Commission.
The NDP responded to Mr. Prentice’s “extremist” claims with an “extremist of the week” press release quoting former Premier Peter Lougheed’s support of increased corporate taxes and former Deputy Premier (and current PC candidate) Thomas Lukaszuk support for in-province refining and upgrading.
Focusing on rural Alberta, Wildrose leader Brian Jean campaigned in southern Alberta and his Fort McMurray constituency this week. While the campaign trail in Strathmore-Brooks, Mr. Jean and candidate Derek Fildebrandt cleverly walked around town with a giant arrow in hand pointing out services and commodities, like alcohol and gas, which became more expensive due to tax increases in the recent provincial budget.
Mr. Jean released his party’s “Five Priorities” that include positions on taxes, health care, education, democracy and rural Alberta. Part of the Wildrose plan to balance the budget by 2017 without raising taxes includes cutting 3,200 management jobs, including 1,600 in Alberta Health Services and 1,600 in the Government public service.
The Wildrose announced they would sell the Kananaskis Golf Course, a publicly owned and privately-operated golf course that the provincial government had paid millions of dollars to repair after it was damaged by floods in 2013.
The Wildrose Party also nominated new candidates this week including City Councillor Buck Buchanan in Red Deer-North, past mayoral candidate Shelley Biermanski in St. Albert, Don Koziak in Edmonton-Glenora and Ian Crawford in Edmonton-Riverview.
Liberals
Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman, interim leader David Swann and Edmonton Liberal candidates unveil the party’s pay equity proposal.
Edmonton Journal columnist Graham Thomson wrote that the Liberal Party might need “a ballot box miracle” in order to save themselves from political oblivion.
The Green Party published a media release criticizing the PC Government’s record on environmental regulation, describing it as a “fake, not authentic, regulation and thus an insult to the intelligence, dignity and trusting nature of Albertans.” The release takes issue with the South Saskatchewan Regional Plan and calls on the government to create a regulator that understands the impact of proposed activity and puts rules in place to prevent any unacceptable impacts.
The Parkland Institute released a new report looking at political values of Albertans. Public Interest Alberta released its “Priorities for Change” report as a resource for political candidates in this election And Change Alberta has returned to rank the progressive candidates most likely to win in constituencies across Alberta.
Alberta Premier Rachel Notley pledged to ban corporate and union political donations during the provincial election campaign.
It is day three of Alberta’s 2015 Provincial Election and the campaign is already getting interesting. Two polls released in the first days of the campaign show an unprecedented three-way race between the Progressive Conservative, New Democrat and Wildrose parties, with the NDP looking to sweep Edmonton. But a lot can change in the 25 days left until voting day and as we saw in the 2012 election, voters can and do change their minds.
NDP leader Rachel Notley says with confidence that she’s running for Premier, and if that came true it would be a first for our province. First elected as MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona in 2008, she became leader of the NDP in October 2014 and is now leading her party in her first campaign as leader.
We were happy to have Ms. Notley join us on the #abvote Google Hangout tonight to talk about the campaign, her chances of becoming Premier and what she would do if she does win the election. In the first half-hour of the hangout, we discussed health care, breaking our province’s dependence on oil revenues, education, taxes and what it is like to be the leader of the NDP in Alberta.
A Giant Squirrel poses with Jim Prentice, Robin Campbell and PC Party supporters in Edson.
Albertans are heading to the polls on May 5, 2015 to elect the next Legislative Assembly of Alberta. Like the past twelve elections since 1971, the May 5 vote will almost certainly result in the re-election of the Progressive Conservative Party, Alberta’s natural governing party. But despite the mostly pre-determined outcomes, provincial elections in this province can be interesting and sometimes exciting.
Alison Redford
After 43 years as government, the PC Party is not running on its record.
Campaigning under the slogan “Choose Alberta’s Future,” Team Jim Prentice will try to ensure that Albertans are not reminded of the past three years of scandals and broken promises while their party was led by Alison Redford.
Mr. Prentice wants the next 27 days to be an election focused on the latest provincial budget and proposed “ten year plan.” The PCs do not want this election to be a referendum on their record as government, at least not beyond the past seven months since Mr. Prentice became their leader.
Rachel Notley
Claiming that a vote for his party is not a vote for the status quo, Mr. Prentice took shots at the New Democratic Party and Wildrose Party, and challenged the opposition to unveil their plans for governing the province. As we are entering an election campaign, I am sure the opposition parties will do just that, while also taking every opportunity to remind voters of the PC Party’s record.
Unlike previous elections when the Liberals and NDP would compete in a handful of constituencies in Edmonton to form Official Opposition, there are almost no constituencies in this election where the Wildrose and NDP are both contenders. This could be the first election in a generation where the PCs find themselves facing serious opposition challenges in both rural and urban Alberta.
While it is unlikely that the PCs will lose government in this election, it is possible that both main opposition parties could surprise Albertans by making gains at the expense of the governing party.
Metro Edmonton reports that Edmonton-Mill Woods PC MLA Sohail Quadri filed an expense claim for $5,000 to hold a banquet to celebrate his first year in office. Mr. Quadri replaced controversial former PC MLA Carl Benito in the 2012 election.
The final PC candidate nomination meetings being held today are in Calgary-McCall and Calgary-Fort. There are six candidates seeking the nomination in Calgary-McCall (Rajinder Harika, Issa Mosa, Muhammad Rasheed, Jagdeep Sahota, Jangbahadur Sidhu and Kuldeep Sidhu) and four in Calgary-Fort (Bev DeSantis, Andy Nguyen, Christopher Primeau and Peter Singh). Ms. DeSantis has received Mr. Prentice’s endorsement in the Fort nomination.
Edmonton City Councillor Tony Caterina is the PC candidate in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview. Mr. Caterina will face hard-working first-term NDP MLA Deron Bilous. Mr. Caterina is well-known in northeast Edmonton, having represented that area since 2007, and his candidacy will keep this swing riding in play.
Since 2004, the constituency has changed hands three times between the PCs and NDP, with Mr. Bilous defeating PC MLA Tony Vandermeerin 2012 by 245 votes.
According to CBC reports, when the election is called Mr. Caterina will suspend his City Council salary but he will continue to participate in council meetings during the campaign.
Mr. Caterina replaces Harman Kandola, who was nominated as the PC candidate in that constituency in late March. Mr. Kandola is now the appointed PC candidate in Edmonton-Ellerslie, a spot that was vacated under controversy by former cabinet minister Naresh Bhardwaj.
The PCs appointed Catherine Keill as their candidate to challenge Liberal/Green/Alberta Party candidateLaurie Blakeman in Edmonton-Centre. Ms. Keill is the Director of Community and Caucus Outreach in the Premier’s Office and previously worked for Mr. Prentice when he was a cabinet minister in Ottawa. She also served as Deputy Chief of Staff to former Mayor Stephen Mandel and was campaign manager for former City Councillor Karen Leibovici‘s mayoral election bid in 2013. The last time a PC candidate was elected in this constituency, Peter Lougheed was premier.
Conservative MP David Yurdiga and Wildrose leader Brian Jean pose with volunteers.
Provincial Tories in northern Alberta are not pleased with Fort McMurray-Athabasca Conservative Member of Parliament David Yurdiga after he appeared in a photo on social media this weekend helping Wildrose leader Brian Jean and party volunteers assemble election signs [see photo above].
Don Scott
Mr. Jean is the former MP for the area and is currently running against PC MLA and Innovation and Advanced Education Minister Don Scott in the Fort McMurray-Conklin constituency.
Facing a strong challenge from federal Liberal candidate Kyle Harreitha in the 2014 by-election, Mr. Yurdiga’s campaign received a last minute endorsement from PC leadership candidate, and now Premier, Jim Prentice. Mr. Yurdiga’s support for Mr. Jean is sure to have raised the ire of Mr. Prentice’s inner circle.
Mr. Harreitha will once again challenge Mr. Yurdiga in the October 2015 federal election in the newly redrawn Fort McMurray-Cold Lake constituency.
Kyle Harrietha
Mr. Yurdiga’s by-election campaign manager, Kim Farwell also tweeted a photo of volunteers helping Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater Wildrose candidate Travis Olson build campaign signs. Mr. Olson is running against PC MLA Jeff Johnson, who also endorsed Mr. Yurdiga in the 2014 by-election.
According to Elections Alberta financial disclosures, Mr. Yurdiga also made a $900 donation to the Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater Wildrose constituency association in 2014.
A deep divide between the federal Conservatives and provincial PCs emerged during the 2012 provincial election when a number of Conservative MPs actively campaigned for Wildrose candidates in their areas of the province. The ascension of former Ottawa cabinet minister Mr. Prentice to the PC leadership and mass floor-crossing of Wildrose MLAs was expected to erase the divide.
Following last week’s release of Alberta’s political party financial disclosure reports for 2014, I thought it would be interesting to look at the history of political donations in our province over the past ten years. Annual and quarterly financial disclosure reports are available for public consumption in difficult to search pdf files on the Elections Alberta website.
[See the charts below for the ten year fundraising trend for Alberta’s four main political parties]
Alberta’s two main conservative parties – the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose Party – remained the dominant forces in political fundraising in 2014. The PC Party’s impressive $3.2 million sets a record for the party, while the Wildrose Party’s $2.1 million is only slightly less than the party fundraised in the year before the 2012 election.
The New Democrats collected an impressive $776,674 in donations in 2014, a record high for that party. The Liberals raised $361,112, slightly less than their 2013 fundraising totals, and the Alberta Party raised $108,837 in donations, a record for that party.
The PC Party continued to rely heavily traditional corporate donors and individual donations in amounts larger than $250, while the Wildrose Party and NDP continued to collect significant amounts of funds in amounts smaller than $250 (nearly half of the Wildrose donations were in amounts smaller than $250).
Here is a look at the ten year fundraising trend for Alberta’s four main political parties:
(Note: These charts take into account fundraising by the central parties, not constituency associations. Information about constituency association financial returns is available separately in individual pdf documents on the Elections Alberta website).
Red Deer-North Liberal and Green candidate Michael Dawe, disqualified Chestermere-Rockyview PC candidate Jamie Lall, acclaimed Chestermere-Rockyview PC candidate Bruce McAllister, and Fort McMurray-Conklin NDP candidate Ariana Mancini.
Progressive Conservative activist Jamie Lall was unexpectedly disqualified for unknown reasons before his party’s April 1 nomination meeting in Chestermere-Rockyview, allowing Wildrose PC MLA Bruce McAllister to be acclaimed. After months of campaigning, Mr. Lall lashed out at his party and questioned why he was disqualified when an incumbent MLA who plead guilt to prostitution related charges was allowed to be nominated. Mr. Lall is also the President of the PC association in the neighbouring Calgary-McCall, a position he has not been disqualified from.
@metrocalgary Whatever the phantom reason is, it’d better be worse than a solicitation of a prostitute conviction as that’s the bare minimum
According to the PC Party website, Jonathan Dai has been appointed as the party’s candidate in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood in advance of the April 11 scheduled nomination meeting. Mr. Dai is the President of the Canada-China Council for Cooperation and Development and was the Liberal candidate in the 2000 federal election in Edmonton-Strathcona, where he placed 5,647 votes behind Canadian Alliance MP Rahim Jaffer. While attempting a rematch with Mr. Jaffer in 2004, he narrowly lost the Liberal nomination in Edmonton-Strathcona to Liberal MLA Debby Carlson. Highlands-Norwood is currently represented by NDP MLA Brian Mason.
The PCs are expected to appoint a candidate in Edmonton-Centre after it was unable to nominate a candidate before the March 28 nomination meeting. The PCs last elected an MLA in Edmonton-Centre in 1982.
Brian Jean
Wildrose Party
New Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean announced that he will run in Fort McMurray-Conklin, which was part of the federal constituency he represented in Ottawa from 2004 to 2014. Mr. Jean will face incumbent PC MLA Don Scott, the Minister of Advanced Education, and NDP candidate Ariana Mancini, a grade 1 teacher and Alberta Teachers’ Association activist. Mr. Scott narrowly defeated Wildrose candidate and former Wood Buffalo mayor Doug Faulkner by 470 votes in the 2012 election.
One of Mr. Jean’s first acts as leader was to dismiss Calgary-South East candidate Bill Jarvis, whose comments about “brown people” embarrassed the party on the night of its leadership announcement.
The Wildrose Party has now nominated at least 47 candidates, including recent nominees Angela Pitt in Airdire, Blaine Maller in Calgary Fish Creek, and Tany Yao in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo. Former leader and MLA Paul Hinmanwithdrew from the nomination contest in Cardston-Taber-Warner, leaving three candidates still in the race – Larry Bates, Jon Hood and Grant Hunter.
New Democratic Party
The New Democratic Party has now nominated at least 75 candidates in constituencies across Alberta. The latest nominated candidates include Christina Gray in Edmonton-Mill Woods, Jon Carson in Edmonton-Meadowlark, Emily Shannon in Drumheller-Stettler, Patricia Norman in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, , Karen McPherson in Calgary-Northern Hills, William Pelech in Chestermere-Rockyview, and Lynn MacWilliam in Strathmore-Brooks.
Alberta Party
The Alberta Party has nominated 29 candidates, including recent nominees Jim Black in Medicine Hat and Rory Tarant in Grande Prairie-Wapiti.
Warren Kinsella
Liberal Party
The Liberal Party has nominated 24 candidates across the province. The latest nominated candidates include Ron Williams in Battle River-Wainwright, Todd Ross in Edmonton-Castle Downs, Bradley Whalen in Edmonton-Decore, Kevin McLean in Grande Prairie-Smoky and Helen McMenamin in Little Bow. Mr. McLean is a city councillor in Grande Prairie.
It appears that celebrity political strategist Warren Kinsella is headlining a $159.00 per ticket fundraiser for Edmonton-Meadowlark Liberal Dan Bildhauer and Edmonton-Manning Liberal Adam Mounzer on April 11 at the Courtyard Edmonton West hotel.
Green Party
The Green Party has nominated fifteen candidates and has recently nominated Josh Drozda in Leduc-Beaumont, Peter Meic in Calgary-Cross, Coral Bliss Taylor in Chestermere-Rockyview, and Sandra Wolf Lange in Edmonton-Riverview.
The Communist Party of Alberta plans to field two candidates in the upcoming election. Leader Naomi Rankin will represent her party in Edmonton-Mill Woods and Bonnie Devine will run in Calgary-East. Ms. Rankin has been leader of the Communist Party since 1992 and, according to her Wikipedia biography, has run in every provincial and federal election in Alberta since 1982.
I have added these updates to the list of nominees and nomination candidates planning to run in Alberta’s next general election. Please email david.cournoyer [at] gmail.com if there are additions to the list. Thank you.
Jim Prentice scrums with the media after his victory speech on September 6, 2014.
In a surprising reversal, Alberta Premier Jim Prentice announced that the next provincial election will be held in spring 2016, not in 2015 as many Albertans expected.
“Three years ago, Progressive Conservative MLAs passed Alberta’s fixed election date law,” said Prentice. “I intend to honour the spirit of this law by holding the next election in 2016.”
The Election Amendment Act, 2011 created a fixed, three-month period in which provincial elections are held every four years.
“Establishing the fixed election period has benefits for all Albertans,” said Jonathan Denis, Minister of Justice and Attorney General. “Albertans are better able to plan to participate or involve themselves in the election process – as voters, as candidates, and as volunteers.”
Some critics believe the delay is a result of a recent poll showing a negative public reaction to the provincial budget and an NDP surge to above 40 per cent support in Edmonton.
Prentice also announced tough new climate change targets that will reduce Alberta’s carbon emissions by 50 per cent before the 2016 election is called.
“Climate change is the defining challenge of our generation and we will not fail in defeating it,” Prentice said. “That is why I am appointing Danielle Smith to lead this initiative as the first Chief Executive Officer of the new Alberta Global Warming Institute.”
“Albertans have put their trust in us and going forward, we will demonstrate beyond a doubt that our government will be the change that Albertans are looking for,” Prentice said.
Danielle Smith and Jim Prentice announce the floor crossing of 9 Wildrose MLAs to the governing PCs.
March 28, 2015 was a big day in Alberta politics. Here is a quick look at the winners and losers from this weekend’s political activities.
Loser: Former Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith was defeated by Okotoks Town Councillor Carrie Fischer in her bid to win the Progressive Conservative nomination in the Highwood constituency. First elected as MLA in 2012, Ms. Smith crossed the floor to the PCs in December 2014. She was widely expected to be in line for a cabinet appointment after the next election, if she had secured the nomination.
Winner: Former Member of Parliament Brian Jean was selected as the new leader of the Wildrose Party. The former federal politician represented the Athabasca-Fort McMurray riding in Ottawa from 2004 to 2014. He has been critical of the PC Party during the leadership race, but will still face questions about why his company donated $10,000 to Jim Prentice‘s leadership campaign in 2014.
Loser: First-term MLA Gary Bikman was unsuccessful in his bid to win the PC nomination in Cardston-Taber-Warner. Mr. Bikman left the Wildrose Party and crossed the floor to the PC Party in December 2014. He was defeated in the nomination contest by Taber Reeve Brian Brewin.
Winners: Ms. Fischer in Highwood, Mr. Brewin in Cardston-Taber-Warner,Lawyer Susan Billington won the PC nomination in Calgary-Varsity, former Cypress County Reeve Bob Olson won the PC nomination in Cypress-Medicine Hat, and Peter DeWit won the PC nomination in Lacombe-Ponoka.
Loser: First-term MLA Rod Fox was defeated in his bid to win the PC nomination in Lacombe-Ponoka. Mr. Fox was one of eleven former Wildrose MLAs who crossed the floor to the PC Caucus in late 2014. He was defeated by Mr. DeWit.
Winner: NDP leader Rachel Notley. This weekend’s ‘Rally for Rachel’ saw NDP volunteers and candidates knock on 10,000 doors in a province-wide canvassing blitz. The NDP have nominated more than 70 candidates and are feeling optimistic about their chances of snatching the Official Opposition away from the Wildrose in the upcoming election.
In advance of the upcoming provincial election in Alberta, I have been reading through data collected through the 2011 Census of Canada and National Household Survey. Available on the Alberta Treasury Board and Finance website, the report breaks down collected information on a provincial constituency level in Alberta. Here is a sample of the results, broken down by constituency:
Top 10 constituencies with the highest +65 age group
19.0% Medicine Hat
18.5% Lethbridge-East
18.2% Livingstone-Macleod
17.9% Edmonton-Gold Bar
17.8% Calgary-Glenmore
17.2% Calgary-Varsity
16.6% Wetaskiwin-Camrose
16.4% Drumheller-Stettler
16.2% Edmonton-Riverview
16.1% Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley
Top 10 constituencies with the highest 18-24 age group
17.3% Edmonton-Strathcona
15.0% Edmonton-Centre
13.6% Calgary-Varsity
12.3% Edmonton-Riverview
11.9% Fort McMurray-Conklin
11.9% Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
11.7% Edmonton-McClung
11.6% Red Deer-North
11.3% Calgary-Shaw
11.0% Calgary-Buffalo
Top 10 constituencies with the highest percentage children under the age of six living in low income households:
35.3% Edmonton-Centre
30.7% Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview
29.3% Edmonton-Mill Woods
28.7% Calgary-Cross
27.5% Calgary-Fort
26.9% Calgary-East
25.5% Calgary-Buffalo
25.0% Edmonton-Meadowlark
24.1% Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood
23.6% Calgary-McCall
Top 10 constituencies with the highest Immigrant population
48.9% Calgary-McCall
48.8% Calgary-Greenway
38.3% Calgary-Foothills
38.2% Calgary-Cross
37.0% Edmonton-Mill Creek
34.6% Calgary-Northern Hills
33.0% Calgary-Lougheed
32.0% Edmonton-Whitemud
30.7% Edmonton-Decore
30.2% Edmonton-Ellerslie
30.1% Calgary-East
Top 10 constituencies with the highest Aboriginal population
54.0% Lesser Slave Lake
26.2% Peace River
24.6% Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
20.3% Bonnyville-Cold Lake
17.4% Fort McMurray-Conklin
16.4% Wetaskiwin-Camrose
16.2% Cardston-Taber-Warner
11.9% Whitecourt-Ste. Anne
11.3% Grande Prairie-Smoky
11.0% Stony Plain
Top 10 constituencies with the highest College or University educated population (+25 years old)
79.6% Calgary-West
77.5% Edmonton-Whitemud
77.2% Calgary-North West
76.6 Calgary-Varsity
74.3% Calgary-Mountain View
74% Calgary-Elbow
73.8% Calgary-Buffalo
71.1% Calgary-Hawkwood
69.8% Edmonton-South West
68.5% Calgary-Bow
Top 10 constituencies with the highest percentage of population holding less than a high school diploma
37.2% Peace River
30.0% Lesser Slave Lake
24.4% Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley
22.8% Calgary-East
22.7% Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
22.5% Edmonton-Decore
22.4% Calgary-Greenway
21.6% Wetaskiwin-Camrose
21.5% Whitecourt-Ste. Anne
21% Little Bow
Jim Prentice looked like a political juggernaut when he won the October 2014 Calgary-Foothills by-election. Today, voters in Foothills will choose his replacement.
OTTAWA, ONTARIO
“If Alberta can deliver a budget, why can this minister of finance not,” Liberal MP Scott Brison asked of Finance Minister Joe Oliver, who was absent from the House of Commons today. Opposition Members of Parliament have been chastizing the Conservatives for refusing to set a date for when this year’s federal budget will be released even after Alberta and Saskatchewan have released their provincial budgets.
Robin Campbell
In the Conservative-heartland of Alberta, despite months of doom and gloom warnings triggered by low oil prices, Progressive Conservative Premier Jim Prentice and Finance Minister Robin Campbell did not present the budget filled with the massive across the board cuts many Albertans were expecting.
The PCs are once again running a deficit budget, as Alberta has in every budget since 2008, even during times when oil prices were high. Despite the Ralph Klein-era mythology of Alberta as a deficit adverse province, it has become the norm in provincial financing.
Funding cuts to health care and education will not have a positive impact on Albertans. Politicians claim the cuts will not impact front-line services but it is unclear how cuts like this can not impact the front-line services that Albertans depend on. Although the price of oil has declined, our provincial population is still growing and demand for health and education services has not decreased.
“We’re going to see more students arriving at the school doorsteps with no new money provided to educate them,” Edmonton Public School Board chairperson Michael Janz told Metro Edmonton. “I don’t think this is a good news budget for Edmonton public schools.”
The budget introduces a new health care levy, which appears to be similar to a health care premium that existes until the PCs cancelled the tax in 2009. Despite its name, the previously incarnation of health care premiums were directed into the province’s general revenue pool, not directly towards the health care budget.
The single-rate 10 percent flat-tax, a strange and short-sighted policy championed by former Finance Ministers Steve West and Stockwell Day in the early 2000s, appears to have been died. Minor tax rate increases are being introduced for Albertans earning more than $100,000 and $250,000 annually. According to the Parkland Institute, the flat-tax reduced government revenue by $5 billion annually from pre-2001 rates.
Sin taxes, gas taxes and user fees increased in the budget mean life will become a little more expensive for drinkers, smokers and drivers in Alberta. A previously existing alcohol tax was implemented then almost immediately reversed in the 2009 budget, which reduced government revenues by $180 million per year.
Personal taxes and fees are increasing but Alberta’s low corporate taxes will not be increased. Despite having the lowest corporate taxes in the country by far, for Conservatives there appears to never be a good time to raise taxes for corporations.
When the economy is slower, Conservatice politicians argue tax increases would cause corporations to layoff workers. When the economy is booming, politicians argue tax increases would cause corporations to stop investing.
The truth is that Alberta could raise tax rates by $11 billion annually and would still have the lowest tax rate in Canada.
This budget was a missed opportunity to introduce a provincial sales tax, which exists in every other province in Canada and nearly every expert has endorsed. At a 2013 provincial fiscal summit in Edmonton, economist Bob Ascah suggested that a 1 per cent sales tax could raise $750 million in annual revenue for the provincial government.
In Alberta, we hear a lot from our political leaders about tough economic times, even when times are prosperous. In advance of an expected spring election, our politicians are managing voters’ expectations and positioning themselves to take credit as ‘prudent fiscal managers’ when the world-wide price of oil inevitably increases.
Without the massive cuts that were expected, it could be tough for the opposition parties to campaign against this budget in the upcoming election. After four decades in power, it is difficult to envision the PC Party actually fixing Alberta’s long-standing revenue problems, but this budget will not stand in the way of Mr. Prentice easily extending his party’s next four years as government.
Wildrose Leadership Candidates Brian Jean, Linda Osinchuk and Drew Barnes.
It has been a rough seven months for the Wildrose Party of Alberta. After losing four by-elections in September 2014, the party was decimated when eleven Wildrose MLAs, including leader Danielle Smith, crossed the floor to the governing Progressive Conservatives.
Now, with an election call expected within weeks, the opposition conservative party is searching for new leader.
Three leadership candidates – Cypress-Medicine Hat MLA Drew Barnes, former Member of Parliament Brian Jean, and former Strathcona County Mayor Linda Osinchuk – are running for the leadership. Party members are already voting and the results will be released on March 28.
The candidates joined us on the latest #ABVote Google Hangout to talk about their campaigns, the state of conservative politics and respond to Premier Jim Prentice‘s televised address to the province. [Following a death in Mr. Jean’s family, Strathmore-Brooks candidate Derek Fildebrandt is standing in for the candidate in the final week of the leadership campaign].
Alberta Election candidates: Shelley Wark-Martyn (Liberal Calgary-Currie), David Xiao (PC Edmonton-McClung), Glenn van Dijken (Wildrose Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock), and Christina Gray (NDP Edmonton-Mill Woods).
With a provincial election expected to be called in the coming weeks, Alberta’s political parties are pushing to nominate their slates of candidates. Not surprisingly, the governing Progressive Conservatives are close to choosing candidates in all 87 constituencies. At fifty-one, the NDP have the second largest number of candidates nominated for the next election.
Map of nominated and acclaimed PC candidates (as of March 23, 2015).
Progressive Conservatives
The PC Party has nominated 7776 candidates, leaving only 10 remaining constituencies to choose candidates.
Driving school owner Gurcharan Garchadefeated two-term MLA Peter Sandhu to win the PC nomination in Edmonton-Manning. Mr. Sandhu, who was briefly removed from the government caucus after facing allegations of conflict of interest, is the first incumbent PC MLA to lose a nomination in 2015. Another candidate, Manpreet Gill, was originally contesting the nomination but does not appear to have been named in the final vote.
Controversial MLA David Xiao survived a strong challenge from party activist Amanda Nielson to win the PC nomination in Edmonton-McClung.
Other recently nominated PC candidates include Blake Prior in Battle River-Wainwright, Jeff Wilson in Calgary-Shaw, former MLA Jack Hayden in Drumheller-Stettler, Rhonda Clarke-Gauthier in Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley, Harman Kandola in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview, Gene Zwozdesky in Edmonton-Mill Creek, Shelley Wegner in Edmonton-Strathcona, Darrell Younghans in Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills, Wade Bearchell in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, Christine Moore in Red Deer-North, Darcy Mykytyshyn in Red Deer-South, Cathy Olesen in Sherwood Park, and Ken Lemke in Stony Plain, Molly Douglass in Strathmore-Brooks.
UPDATE: Former cabinet minister Naresh Bhardwaj has withdrawn his candidacy in Edmonton-Ellerslie. The second-term PC MLA resigned as Associate Minister for Persons with Disabilities this month pending an investigation by the PC Party into allegations of bribery in his constituency’s nomination contest. Metro Edmonton first reported that a party member publicly accused Mr. Bhardwaj of offering him, through another person, a $10,000 bribe in return for recanting his support for candidate Balraj Manhas.
Map of nominated and acclaimed NDP candidates (as of March 23, 2015).
New Democratic Party
The NDP have nominated candidates in fifty-two constituencies, the most of any opposition party. Recent nominations and acclamations include Chris Noble in Airdrie, Tristan Turner in Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock, Kathleen Ganley in Calgary-Buffalo, Catherine Wellburn in Calgary-Elbow, AnamKazim in Calgary-Glenmore, Chris McMillan in Calgary-Mountain View, Aaron Haugen in Cardston-Taber-Warner, and Erin Babcock in Stony Plain.
Candidates who have recently announced their intentions to seek nominations are: Gordon Naylor in Battle River Wainwright, Josalyne Head in Bonnyville-Cold Lake, Christina Gray in Edmonton-Mill Woods, Leslie Mahoney in Highwood, and Hannah Schlamp in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre.
The following candidates are seeking the NDP nominations at a five-constituency joint nomination meeting on March 31, 2015: Jill Moreton in Calgary-Fish Creek, Don Monroe in Calgary-Greenway, Danielle Nadeau McMillian in Calgary-Hawkwood, Ryan Wick in Calgary-MacKay-Nose Hill, and Karen Mills in Calgary-North West.
Map of nominated and acclaimed Wildrose candidates (as of March 23, 2015).
Wildrose Party
The Wildrose Party have at least forty candidates nominated and appear to have opened nominations in all remaining 47 constituencies.
Recently nominated candidates include Glenn van Dijken in Barrhead-Moriville-Westlock, Wes Taylor in Battle River-Wainwright, Trevor Grover in Calgary-Bow, Mark Smith in Drayton Valley-Devon, Donald MacIntyre in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Val Olson in Medicine Hat and Norman Wiebe in Red Deer-North.
Map of nominated and acclaimed Alberta Party candidates (as of March 23, 2015).
Some of the more recently no mated candidates include: Alison Wemyss in Calgary-Fish Creek, Owais Siddiqui in Edmonton Beverly-Clareview, Derek Christensen in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, John Stewart in Leduc-Beaumont, Trevor Love in St. Albert, Krystal Kromm in Red Deer North, Serge Gingras in Red Deer South and Rob Fox in Bonnyville-Cold Lake.
Map of nominated and acclaimed Liberal candidates (as of March 23, 2015).
Liberal Party
The Liberals have nominated candidates in at least nineteen constituencies.
Former Liberal Party President and Ontario NDP MPP Shelley Wark-Martyn was chosen to represent the Liberal Party candidate in Calgary-Currie. Also recently nominated are Ronald Brochu in Edmonton-Gold Bar, Adam Mounzer in Edmonton-Manning, Michael Dawe in Red Deer-North, and Mike Hanlon in Stony Plain. Following the lead of Ms. Blakeman, Mr. Dawe plans to seek the Green Party nomination in Red Deer-North.
Map of nominated and acclaimed Green Party candidates (as of March 23, 2015).
Green Party
The Greens have nominated candidates in ten constituencies across Alberta (including MLA Laurie Blakeman in Edmonton-Centre).
Nominated Green candidates are David Reid in Calgary-Bow, Janet Keeping in Calgary-Foothills, Polly Knowlton Cockett in Calgary-Hawkwood, Noel Keough in Calgary-Klein, Sandy Aberdeen in Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill, Carl Svoboda in Calgary-Varsity, David Parker in Edmonton-Gold Bar and Alison Anderson in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville.
I have added these updates to the list of nominees and nomination candidates planning to run in Alberta’s next general election. Please email david.cournoyer [at] gmail.com if there are additions to the list. Thank you.
