Calgary-Shaw: Following a surprising announcement by three-term PC MLA Cindy Ady that she would not seek re-election, lawyer Farouk Adatia has been appointed to replace her at the Progressive Conservative candidate. Mr. Adatia was the Chief Financial Officer for Premier Alison Redford‘s leadership campaign in 2011, and he was an unsuccessful candidate in the hotly contested PC nomination in Calgary-Hawkwood earlier this year. Following the disqualification of former Calgary-McCall MLA Shiraz Shariff as the PC candidate in Calgary-West, it was speculated that Mr. Adatia might be appointed to run as a candidate there.
Calgary-Cross: Susan Stratton will represent the Evergreen Party in this east Calgary constituency. Ms. Stratton ran in this constituency in the 2008 election under the Green Party banner, earning 395 votes. In 2004, she ran for the Green Party in Calgary-North Hill, placing third and earning 1,261 votes.
Jennifer Ketsa
Calgary-Elbow: Businessman Greg Clark has been nominated as the Alberta Party‘s candidate in the constituency represented by Premier Redford.
Edmonton-Manning: Past mayoral candidate Daryl Bonar appears to have fallen off the list of Wildrose Party candidates. Mr. Bonar placed third in Edmonton’s 2010 mayoral election and was nominated as a Wildrose candidate in 2011.
Neil Mather
Edmonton-Meadowlark: Lawyer and past federal Liberal candidate Neil Mather will run in this west Edmonton constituency under the Alberta Party banner. In the 2004 election, Mr. Mather earned 12,912 in the Edmonton-Spruce Grove riding, which includes parts of Meadowlark. The constituency is currently represented by Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman, who was elected under the PC banner in 2008.
Edmonton-Rutherford: David Tonner, an organizing member of The Zeitgeist Movement, has been nominated as the Evergreen Party candidate.
Lacombe-Ponoka: Rancher and agricultural policy specialist Tony Jeglum has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate.
St. Albert: Despite initial problems finding a candidate, social worker Kim Bugeaud has been chosen to run for the Liberals in St. Albert. Ms. Bugeaud served as a trustee on the St. Albert Protestant School Board from 1995 to 1998.
Alberta's culture of negative attack ads began with this nasty Social Credit Party newspaper ad during the 1971 election.
Alberta’s political twitterati were atwitter yesterday after a Progressive Conservative radio advertisement was leaked to the Calgary Herald. The ad defend the new law passed by Premier Alison Redford‘s government that will lower a driver’s legal blood alcohol level from 0.08 to 0.05 and respond to the constant, and sometimes creative, criticism of the new law by Danielle Smith and her Wildrose Party.
Judging by the amountof earnedmedia the Tories have already received about the yet-to-be-aired ad, the ad may have already paid for itself.
Unlike the negativeadssaturating the airwaves in the Republican Party presidential nomination race south of the border, this Tory radio ad is very, very tame. The ads point out a clear difference between the two parties on a real policy issue that both parties believe they have something to gain from.
Albertans should expect high levels of sensationalism from mainstream political pundits in over the course of the next week. How many times can we expect the phrase “the gloves off” to be used in the next few days? Lots.
The Tory Party’s shift in tactics is important to note. Calgary Herald columnist Don Braid points out on his blog that the ad marks an attitude change in a PC Party that would typically dismiss the opposition (and romp to another election victory).
Normally invulnerable, the Tories may be worried that accusations and evidence of intimidation and bad governance may be starting to stick. The growing pile of Tory political miscalculations and mistakes are starting to pile up with an election call expected by the end of March.
Yesterday, the Canadian Taxpayers Federation released information showing that 21 MLAs, mostly Tories, are being paid $1000 per month for being members of a legislative committee that has not met in over three years. Lacombe-Ponoka PC MLA Ray Prins has been collecting $18,000 a year for being the chair of the committee.
Bonnyville-Cold Lake PC MLA Genia Leskiw pleaded ignorance when asked about the extra money she was collecting from the committee, telling the CBC that “I don’t even look at my paycheque.”
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock: Leslie Penny is expected to seek the Liberal Party nomination. Ms. Penny was her party’s candidate in the 2008 election, where she placed second with 1,804 votes.
Hubert Rodden
Bonnyville-Cold Lake: Former Cold Lake City Councillor Hubert Rodden is the nominated Liberal Party candidate. Mr. Rodden was first elected to council in 2007 and was defeated in 2010.
Edmonton-Calder: Alex Bosse has been nominated as the Liberal Party candidate.
Edmonton-Ellerlsie: Completing the slate of 87 NDP candidates is Rod Loyola, who was nominated as the NDP in this south east Edmonton constituency. Mr. Loyola replaces previously nominated candidate Tina Jardine, who withdrew her candidacy for health reasons.
Dari Lynn
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood: Herbal practitioner Dari Lynn has been nominated as the Evergreen Party candidate.
Lethbridge-East: Rob Miyashiro defeated Alderman Jeff Carlson to win the Liberal Party nomination. Mr. Miyashiro will face Liberal-turned-PC MLA Bridget Pastoor in the upcoming election. After serving two-term as a Liberal MLA, Ms. Pastoor crossed the floor to join the PCs in October 2011.
Vermilion-Lloydminster: Corina Ganton is the nominated Liberal Party candidate in this east central Alberta constituency. Ms. Ganton works for the Liberal Party and was the Federal Liberal candidate in Peace River during the 2011 election.
Wetaskiwin-Camrose: Printing press operator Mike Donnelly has been nominated as the Evergreen Party candidate in this central Alberta constituency.
Women make up the majority of Alberta’s population, but they rarely come even close to being the majority in electoral politics.
Alberta’s 2012 election could be notable for many reasons, two of those reasons being that it will be the first where both the incumbent Premier, Alison Redford, and the leader of the party polling in second place, Danielle Smith, are women.
The two other main political parties have had women lead them in past elections (Pam Barrett led the NDP during the 1997 election and Nancy MacBeth led the Liberals in 2001). Former Edmonton school trustee Sue Huff led the Alberta Party as acting-leader until May 2011.
Aside from the 100% increase of women party leaders since the last election, there also appears to be an increase in the number of women Alberta’s political parties are nominating as candidates.
The NDP has so far nominated the most woman candidates of the political parties contesting the 2012 election. By my count, the NDP has chosen 39 women out of 87 candidates (45%). This is a boost for the NDP from the 2008 election, when that party nominated 32 women out of 83 candidates (38%).
Also on the increase is the Progressive Conservatives, which has chosen 23 women out of the 86 candidates nominated to run in the next election (27%). All the contestants in the one remaining nomination contest in Calgary-West are men. This is a seven percent increase for the PCs from the last election when only 17 out of the 83 candidates were women (20%). The PCs have a long way to go before they even approach a gender balance of candidates, but a seven percent increase does move them closer.
Despite their strong female leader, Wildrose candidates are predominantly men. By my count, only 11 of the 84 nominated Wildrose candidates are women (13%). This is a tiny increase from 2008, when only 6 of the 61 candidates standing for the Wildrose Alliance were women (10%).
The Liberal Party, with 42 candidates currently nominated, has chosen 7 women candidates (17%). I expect this number to increase as the Liberals add to their slate of candidates before the election. In 2008, the 22 women under the Liberal Party banner out of 82 candidates (25%).
The Alberta Party has nominated four women out of fourteen candidates (28%).
Number of women candidates by party
2011 Election
NDP: 39 out of 87 – 45%
PC: 23 out of 86 – 27%
Wildrose: 11 out of 85 – 13%
Liberal: 7 out of 42 – 17%
Alberta Party: 4 out of 14 – 28%
2008 Election
NDP: 32 out of 83 – 38%
Liberal: 22 out of 83 – 26%
PC: 17 out of 83 – 20%
Wildrose: 6 out of 61 – 10%
Six is the number of pieces of legislation that Premier Alison Redford‘s Progressive Conservative government has introduced into Alberta’s Legislative Assembly during the Spring sitting that started in February.
Nineteen is the number of pieces of legislation passed by the PC government led by Premier Ed Stelmach during the 2011 Spring sitting of the Assembly.
The government’s light legislative agenda during the Spring sitting should be a surprise to Albertans, especially after the kerfuffle around the cancellation and delay of the 2011 Fall sitting. Perhaps explaining the lack of a long list of legislative items is that this sitting is expected to culminate with passage of the provincial budget and the dropping of the Writ, which some political watchers suspect may happen during the third or four week of March.
Along with a safe pre-election budget, the Tories legislative agenda includes items that posed difficult political challenges to the government under Premier Stelmach. The Results-based Budgeting Act is a response to criticisms from the Wildrose Party that the Tories have become bad fiscal managers. The new version of the Education Act is meant to ease the worries created by the Bill’s previous incarnation that school boards would be eliminated or have their powers greatly reduced.
Perhaps touching the most politically sensitive issue for the PCs is the Property Rights Advocate Act, which is meant to cool the flames of angry and well-organized landowners in rural Alberta who have loudly voiced their opposition to the construction of transmission lines and new powers that allow cabinet to expropriate private property. Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party has focused what I can only imagine are a wealth of resources and countless time on making property rights a defining wedge issue in some rural areas.
Promises kept?
Half-fullfilling a promise made during the PC leadership contest to hold an independent judicial inquiry into the health care system, Premier Redford’s support for a quasi-judicial inquiry with a narrower mandate has made some political watchers spitting mad. Opposition politicians, like Liberal leaderRaj Shermanand Wildrose MLARob Anderson, have criticized the recent report as being “whitewash” and “an outrage.”
Being Alberta’s first Premier in a generation who can explain policy positions articulately (and in full sentences), it would not be surprising to see many voters looking past the misgivings and political maneuvering and decide that they would be comfortable with Premier Redford in office.
In the lead up to the Alberta’s 2012 election, I have identified fifteen constituencies across the province that could produce interesting contests and results when the election is called.
15 races to watch in Alberta's 2012 election.
1) Highwood
The Wildrose Party has staked their future in the success of leader Danielle Smith and I expect that party will pull out all the stops to ensure she is elected. The PCs have nominated newspaper editor John Barlow to replace retiring PC MLA George Groeneveld.
2) Edmonton-Meadowlark
This area has deep Liberal roots, having first elected MLA Grant Mitchell in 1986, but since 2001 it has become a swing-riding electing both Liberals and PCs. Currently held by former PC MLA and now Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman, the next vote will be a test of his personal popularity as he runs under his new party’s banner. He will face former PC MLA Bob Maskell, who served from 2001 until 2004.
3) Edmonton-Calder
Voters in this constituency are notorious swing-voters. No incumbent has been re-elected here since 1997. Current PC MLA Doug Elniski made a last minute announcement that he would not seek re-election, leaving former school trustee and newly nominated candidate Bev Esslinger not a lot of time to catch up. Former MLA David Eggen has been campaigning in Calder for the past three years and is expected to launch a well-organized campaign. Wildrose candidate Rich Neumann may play kingmaker if he is able to attract enough past PC voters.
4) Calgary-Glenmore
In 2009, outgoing Wildrose leader Paul Hinman narrowly won a hotly contested by-election that was seen as a referendum on then-Premier Ed Stelmach‘s popularity in Calgary (which was low). With new Premier Alison Redford representing the neighboring constituency, PC candidate Linda Johnson may receive a warmer reception at the doors. Throw into the mix former Mount Royal College instructor Craig Cheffins, who served as the Liberal MLA for Calgary-Elbow from 2007 to 2008, and the outcome of this race could be difficult to predict.
5) Edmonton-Glenora
Represented by both PC and Liberal MLAs over the past twenty years, this constituency could be a key battleground for five opposition parties in the next election. Former Liberal MLA Bruce Miller is challenging PC cabinet minister Heather Klimchuk, who unseated him by 136 votes in 2008. Rev. Miller is not the only challenger in this election. The Alberta Party is pinning their hopes on former school trustee Sue Huff, the NDP have nominated former MLA and leader Ray Martin, and the Wildrose have chosen past Mayoral candidateDon Koziak.
6) Calgary-Varsity
With the retirement of popular two-term Liberal MLA Harry Chase, the Liberals have nominated former carpenters’ union official Bruce Payne, who ran for that party’s leadership in 2011. The PCs have chosen former Nexen vice-president Donna Kennedy-Glans. The results of this race will be a critical indicator of whether the Liberals can hold on to, and build on, important gains made in Calgary during the past two elections.
7) Chestermere-Rockyview
Energy Minister Ted Morton will face off against former Global Calgary news anchor and Wildrose candidate Bruce McAllister. The Wildrose attacked Minister Morton’s credentials as a “fiscal mallard” while he was Finance Minister and by nominating Mr. McAllister they are showing that they will not give him a pass in the next election.
8 ) Airdrie
When first-term PC MLA Rob Anderson joined the Wildrose in 2010, he automatically became a target of his former party, who have nominated Alderman Kelly Hegg as their candidate. The Airdrie area has typically voted for the PCs, but voters in this region have been known to elect opposition candidates in the past (Western Canadian Concept MLA Gordon Kesler was elected in 1982 and Liberal MLA Don MacDonald was elected in 1992).
9) Cardston-Taber-Warner After being unseated by Wildorse MLA Mr. Hinman in 2004, PC MLA Broyce Jacobs won a narrow victory in 2008. Fast forward to 2012, Mr. Jacobs has lost his party’s nomination to Pat Shimbashi and the Wildrose has nominated Sterling Deputy Mayor Gary Bikman. If the Wildrose are to pick up seats in the election, this will likely be one.
10) Edmonton-Rutherford In a rematch of the closest race of the 2008 election, PC MLA Fred Horne will face former Liberal MLA Rick Miller. While 2008 a two-way contest, the 2012 contest is more interesting with the presence of community organizer and Alberta Party candidate Michael Walters and Wildrose candidate Kyle McLeod.
11) Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo After winning four elections as this constituency’s PC candidate, late-blooming Wildrose MLA Guy Boutilier will face Wood Buffalo deputy mayor Mike Allen in the upcoming vote. After decades as a municipal and provincial politician, this election may be more a test of Mr. Boutilier’s personal support than that of his new party.
12) Edmonton-Gold Bar A Liberal Party stronghold since 1986, the retirement of MLA Hugh MacDonald and the redistribution of electoral boundaries south encompassing Tory-voting neighbourhoods may give second-time PC candidate David Dorward a boost. Liberal candidate Josipa Petrunic is a well-spoken and passionate partisan who hopes to hold the constituency for her party. The NDP have nominated Marlin Schmidt and hope to capitalize on local support for NDP MP Linda Duncan.
13) Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview A close contest in 2008 saw former PC MLA Tony Vandermeer defeat NDP MLA Ray Martin. In 2012, Mr. Vandermeer will face a strong challenge from NDP candidate Deron Bilous.
14) Lethbridge-West After twenty years of close races, voters in this constituency have proven themselves to be deeply divided between the PCs and Liberals. This election, first-term PC MLA Greg Weadick and second-time Liberal candidate Bal Boora will be joined by NDP candidate Shannon Phillips, who has launched a spirited campaign, and Wildrose candidate Kevin Kinahan. Even if Mr. Weadick is re-elected, the real story may be who places second in this politically moderate southern Alberta constituency.
15) Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock
After more than three decades in the Assembly, the departure of PC MLA Ken Kowalski has created a large void to fill in this constituency north of Edmonton. The PCs have nominated Westlock County Councillor Maureen Kubinec, who will face off against her main opponent Wildrose candidateLink Byfield. Mr. Byfield has been campaigning for more than a year and could make gains if he is able to tap into the base of social conservative voters in this constituency.
With Alberta’s pre-election season in full-swing, molehills are becoming mountains and politicians are clinging to any issue they believe could help them score political points.
Kicking off this past week, Municipal Affairs Minister Doug Griffiths announced that Progressive Conservative MLAs would boycott an annual breakfast hosted by the Alberta Urban Municipalities Association after that organization’s President, Edmonton City Councillor Linda Sloan, criticized the provincial budget. Minister Griffiths claimed that Councillor-President Sloan’s criticisms were unfair, and in a tit-for-tat written letter, he declined the AUMA’s invitation to the meal.
The situation was quickly enflamed when Premier Alison Redford‘s Chief of Staff, Stephen Carter, tweeted that Councillor Sloan had lied, maliciously, by accusing the province of political bias in funding municipal projects. After an ensuing social media firestorm crossed into mainstream media reporting, Mr. Carter issued an apology to Councillor Sloan.
Minister Griffiths then tweeted that he would attended the annual AUMA breakfast. Councillor Sloan, a former Liberal MLA, used Minister Griffiths’ u-turn as an opportunity to restate her claim that partisan interests have influence municipal grants. I expect this may be the first of many times the provincial Tories will have to face Councillor Sloan in her role with the AUMA.
Almost immediately after the story of Mr. Carter’s tweet began to die down, Tory caucus communications officer Jessica Jacobs-Mino found herself in hot water after a spat on Twitter with Calgary Herald columnist Don Braid. Her Twitter account has since been deleted.
Opposition politicians were not immune to this week’s pre-election overzealousness. Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman delivered a pitch perfect apology after a media release sent from his caucus wrongfully accused the Town of Penhold of illegally donating $609 to the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake PC association.
A quick rebuttal from Penhold Mayor Dennis Cooper revealed that the financial transaction was not an illegal donation, but a repayment for unused rent given to the town for use of its facilities. The Liberal accusation was the latest in a series of media releases accusing the Tories of being “warlords” for their part in the painfully-named “donation-gate.”
Judging by past performances, not rocking the boat is a difficult thing for Finance Minister Ron Liepert, who managed to table a budget yesterday that will rock Albertans to sleep before it rocks them into a riot. Reminding Albertans of just how good their forty-year government is, the Tories are subtly trying to convince Albertans not to do anything too drastic, like voting for another party in the upcoming election.
Stable increases to the health care and education budgets, increased funding AISH and to end homelessness will appeal to soft Liberal and New Democrat voters that the PCs hope to capture in the next election.
This puts Alberta’s opposition parties in a difficult position. NDP leader Brian Masonquestioned the PCs optimistic projections about the next economic boom, saying that the 40-year governing party is “hiding a big deficit.” Liberal leader Raj Sherman, himself a former Tory MLA, called the budget dishonest and accused the Tories of making “unrealistically high revenue predictions.” Alberta Party leader Glenn Taylor accused the government of having neglected to listen to Albertans priorities in this budget.
Meanwhile, Wildrose leader Danielle Smith continues to insist that the government is “poised to raise taxes,” even after Minister Liepert said at least 38 times during his budget speech that he would not raise taxes. Not heeding the political Right’s calls for drastic cuts, the Tories have happily ceded the radical fiscal conservative territory to Ms. Smith’s party.
Premier Alison Redford‘s pre-election budget is tailored to the moderate majority of Albertans, who, unlike the political class, will likely have a hard time getting angry about this budget. Keep Calm and Carry On Voting Tory.
As I first wrote about in yesterday’s post, former Calgary-McCall MLA Shiraz Shariff has been disqualified as the Progressive Conservative candidate in Calgary-West after complaints of voting irregularities at the recent nomination meeting.
Shiraz Shariff
Mr. Shariff narrowly defeated former Alberta Health Services chairman Ken Hughes, who sits in Premier Alison Redford‘s inner circle and was widely seen as the front-runner in the contest. Both Mr. Shariff and Mr. Hughes entered the contest only weeks before the nomination meeting. Mr. Shariff had been seeking the nomination in Calgary-Hawkwood until late 2011, when he switched constituencies.
Posting a statement on his Facebook profile, Mr. Shariff maintained that his campaign was run fairly and was aware “a potential bias from the onset of my candidacy and during my campaign for nomination… ran even as deep as within the PC Board of Calgary West.” He called on the PC Party to begin an arbitration process to address the complaints.
“I have not been made aware of specific issues, have not been consulted in this decision, and have not been offered an arbitration process, as stated in the PC Party constitution. If there were irregularities, I request that the PC Party will make them known and address how the security of the day, guided by the leadership of the Board, could not have protected the process against these irregularities.”
In a media release yesterday quoting President Bill Smith and Executive Director Kelley Charlebois , the PC Party announced that they would ask the local board of directors in Calgary-West to submit the names of three replacement candidates for Premier Redford to select.
Farouk Adatia
Mr. Hughes may seem like the obvious choice for the appointed candidacy, but Tory sources say that lawyer Farouk Adatia may end up being Premier Redford’s choice. Mr. Adita served as Chief Financial Officer for Premier Redford’s leadership campaign and he was recently defeated in the crowded PC nomination contest in Calgary-Hawkwood.
It may be another month before the PCs actually drop the Writ and time to hold another open nomination meeting is cut short by that party’s public deadline to nominate candidates before February 10. This weekend, the PCs are holding a pre-election campaign training school in Edmonton, which will be a pep rally to energize their activist base. At these schools, the PCs will also select three candidates to stand in the upcoming Senator-in-Waiting election, which will be held along with the general election.
The PCs also appointed candidates in two other constituencies. Emerson Mayers, who was defeated in the Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood nomination contest will run against NDP MLA Rachel Notley in Edmonton-Strathcona. Jamie Lall, who was defeated in the Calgary-McCall nomination contest will challenge Liberal MLA Kent Hehr in Calgary-Buffalo.
Following claims of voting irregularities at the recently held Calgary-West Progressive Conservative nomination meeting, Tory sources are saying that Premier Alison Redford may find a new candidate to carry her party’s banner in that constituency.
The hard fought nomination battle saw former Calgary-McCall MLA Shiraz Shariffshock political watchers by defeating past Alberta Health Services Chairman Ken Hughes. A former Member of Parliament, Mr. Hughes was a member of Premier Redford’s transition team and was seen as a star candidate for the PCs.
The constituency is currently represented by Finance Minister Ron Liepert, who is not seeking re-election. Sources say that the new candidate could be someone other than Mr. Hughes.
This is not Mr. Shariff’s first brush with controversy. In 2008, private-citizen Naheed Nenshispoke to CBC about what he believed were irregularities carried out at the polls by Mr. Shariff’s campaign workers during the 2004 election. Mr. Shariff narrowly defeated Liberal Darshan Kang in that election (Mr. Kang later defeated Mr. Shariff in the 2008 election).
This would not be the first time the PCs have had to find a last minute replacement for a candidate in Calgary-West.
In 1997, Premier Ralph Klein‘s barber Mike Nasserstepped down as the PC candidate after it was revealed he was the subject of a city lawsuit and several complaints regarding his business proceedings. The runner-up from the previously held nomination meeting cut her Mexican vacation short to fly back and hold the party banner in the election. Karen Kryczka served two terms as MLA after that.
The Tories are also expected to appoint candidates to challenge popular Liberal MLA Kent Hehr in Calgary-Buffalo and NDP MLA Rachel Notley in Edmonton-Strathcona. No candidates entered the previously scheduled nomination contests in these two constituencies. Sources suggest that recent Calgary-McCall PC nomination candidate Jamie Lall will be appointed in Calgary-Buffalo. This will be the second consecutive election where the PCs have had to appoint a candidate to challenge Ms. Notley.
UPDATE: A media release from the PC Party says that Mr. Shariff is no longer the candidate in Calgary-West. Jamie Lall and Emerson Mayers have been appointed as PC candidates in Calgary-Buffalo and Edmonton-Strathcona. See the comment section of this blog post for the entire text of the media release.
Surveys conducted by Environics, Angus Reid, and Lethbridge College in the final months of 2011 tell a different story, showing the Tories with a commanding lead placing more than 20% ahead of the opposition parties. Finding different results, the Forum survey shows the PCs up one-percent from a previous survey conducted by the same firm in December 2011 and the Wildrose up six points in the same period of time. I will wait to see whether other surveys begin to show similar results before I begin to believe that the PCs and Wildrose are this close in electoral support.
It is important to remember that surveys and polls are snapshots of where a population is at an exact moment in time. They are helpful at detecting trends, but as all political watchers should remember – campaigns matter – and Albertans will have an opportunity to see their political parties in full electoral action in the coming months.
Ed Stelmach
Without Premier Ed Stelmach as their lightening-rod in Calgary perpetually unhappy oil company community, the Wildrose Party appears to have lost the steam from the high point they sat at in mid-2010. In response, they are trying their best to cast Premier Alison Redford as a flip-flopper and have come out strong with negative advertising aimed at the Tories. There is plenty to criticize in the Tory record book, but the relentless angry and outrageous attacks lend little suggestion that the Wildrose Party would be a very pleasant crew if they ever form government.
As I said in the National Post, there are not many people talking about the Wildrose Party forming government these days – except Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith. Ms. Smith appears to be doing very little to manage the expectations of her party’s core activists, many whom are still wearing the [wild]rose coloured glasses they donned when the their party hit the peak of its meteoric rise in 2010.
Alison Redford
Not properly managing expectations can be a politically deadly mistake. While the political environment was different, the most appropriate example may be the Alberta Liberal experience following the infamous 1993 election. With early polls showing a meteoric rise in the polls for the long-outcast Liberal Party, leader Laurence Decore had pumped expectations of forming government so-high that when his party only formed Official Opposition, he faced open revolt from his caucus and defections to the Tories. The Liberals have not come close to this high-point since.
I also point to the quick rise and fall of Canadian Alliance leader Stockwell Day or Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin, who both filled their supporters minds with great expectations of electoral glory, only to disappoint when the votes were counted.
What results of the Forum survey and other surveys suggest to me is that the PCs remain Alberta’s big-tent political party – one that both blue conservatives and moderate liberals are comfortable joining – and that the opposition is increasingly polarizing to the political left and right.
The rise of the conservative Wildrose Party to what may become the default opposition and the increase in support for the social democratic NDP may leave a difficult space for the moderate opposition parties that want to occupy the political centre – the Liberal and the Alberta Party.
With an election fast approaching, Alberta’s political parties are busy nominating candidates across the province. Here is a regional breakdown showing where candidates have been nominated and some of the recent updates.
Nominated Alberta Election candidates by region (January 16, 2012)
Airdrie: Former Airdrie MayorLinda Bruce and current Alderman Kelly Hegg are seeking the Progressive Conservative nomination.
Banff-Cochrane: Real Estate broker Jon Bjorgum, Canmore Mayor Ron Casey have Rob Seeley have joined businessman John Fitzsimmons and Cochrane Mayor Truper McBridein the contest for the PC nomination on January 28, 2012. The Liberal Party nomination is scheduled to take place on January 26, 2012.
Calgary-Glenmore: Linda Johnson will face lawyer Byron Nelson for the PC nomination. The constituency is currently represented by Wildrose MLA Paul Hinman, who was elected in a 2010 by-election.
Calgary-McCall: It is a full house in the PC nomination contest on January 21, 2012 with 10 candidates having entered the race. Candidates include Khandaker Alam, Deepshikha Brar, Afzal Hanid, Amtul Khan, Jamie Lall, Aslam Malik, Ravi Prasad, Muhammad Rasheed, Jagdeep Sahota, and Jangbahadur Sidhu.
Calgary-Mountain View: Lawyer Cecilia Low was acclaimed as the PC candidate. This constituency has been represented by Liberal MLA David Swann since 2004.
Calgary-Northwest: First reported on this blog, former cabinet minster Lindsay Blackett will not be seeking re-election. Sandra Jansen announced yesterday that she will be seeking the PC nomination. Ms. Jansen is a former news anchor for Global Television and has served as Communications Manager for Premier Alison Redford‘s Southern Alberta Office since late last year.
Calgary-Shaw: The Alberta Party will be holding a nomination meeting on January 30, 2012. At this time, Brandon Beasley is the only declared candidate.
Edmonton-Centre: Urban Development Institute executive director Nicole Martel is seeking the PC nomination scheduled for January 24, 2012. Ms. Martel was the federal Liberal candidate in Edmonton-East in the 2006 election and a candidate for the Liberal nomination in Edmonton-Centre in 2008.
Edmonton-Ellerlise: Past Public School Board candidate Tina Jardine has withdrawn her name as the NDP candidate for personal reasons.
Edmonton-Gold Bar: Dennis O’Neill was acclaimed as the Alberta Party candidate.
Edmonton-Mill Woods: Despite bizarre nomination shenanigans, the PCs will hold their nomination meeting on January 28, 2012. Candidates include Ron Randhawa, Sohail Qadri, and controversy-prone MLA Carl Benito.
Edmonton-Riverview: Taleb Choucair, Edmonton Police Officer Steve Young, and former Public School Trustee Bev Esslinger are seeking the PC nomination on January 27, 2012.
Edmonton-South West: Allan Hunsperger is the nominated Wildrose candidate. Matt Jeneroux and Tofael Chowdhury are competing in the PC nomination scheduled for January 30, 2012. Mr. Choudhury was a candidate for the federal Liberal nomination in Edmonton-Strathcona in 2008.
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo: Andrew Highfield has joined declared candidates Mike Allen, Nick Sanders, and Jeff Thompson in competing for the PC nomination scheduled for January 28, 2012.
Lethbridge-East: Lethbridge County Reeve Lorne Hickey is challenging Liberal-turned-Tory MLA Bridget Pastoor for the PC nomination scheduled for January 26, 2012.
Medicine Hat: Darren Hirsch and Linda Rossler are seeking the PC nomination. The constituency is currently represented by 17-year MLA Rob Renner, who is not seeking re-election.
Red Deer-North: Well-known local historian Michael Dawe is seeking the Liberal nomination scheduled to be held on January 19, 2012.
Sherwood Park: Six candidates are vying for the PC nomination on January 21, 2012 to replace outgoing MLA Iris Evans. Declared candidates include Matthew Bissett, County Councillor Brian Botterill, Helen Calahasen, Murray Hutchinson, former Mayor Cathy Oleson, and local PC organizerSusan Timanson. Ms. Calahasen is the sister of long-time Lesser Slave Lake MLAPearl Calahasen.
Vermilion-Lloydminster: Dr. Richard Starke was acclaimed as the PC candidate to replace outgoing MLA Lloyd Snelgrove.
Senator-in-Waiting Election
Former PC Member of Parliament Douglas Fee has joined the PC nomination contest, to be held on February 10 and 11. Mr. Fee served as the MP for Red Deer from 1988 to 1993.
Premier Alison Redford has told reporters that her government will approve Alberta’s 2012/2013 budget before the next provincial general election is called. The budget is expected to be introduced shortly after MLAs return to the Assembly on February 7, 2012. The election must take place between March 1 and May 31, based on Alberta’s new ‘fixed-election period.’
In previous years, including 1997 and 2008, the Assembly only briefly returned for a sitting before elections were called.
A Spring sitting of three to four weeks would put the Progressive Conservatives in a position to force their greatest perceived threat, the Wildrose Party, to make some firm commitments on the public record about what they would cut from the provincial budget. The Wildrose have been weakened in the polls since the departure of Premier Ed Stelmach and the PCs will do their best to frame Danielle Smith‘s party as a disgruntled fringe group of angry and outraged conservatives.
Albertans can expect the PCs to use the Spring sitting of the Assembly to saturate the media airwaves with spin about how great their provincial budget will be. Think of it as Phase 1 of the PC Party election platform.
Ron Liepert
A full Spring sitting would also allow retiring Finance Minister Ron Liepert to table and implement one budget before the next election. Minister Liepert was appointed to the Finance portfolio in late 2011 and will not be seeking re-election (some political watchers have suggested that Minister Liepert could be hired as Premier Redford’s post-election Chief of Staff)
Holding a Spring sitting will also give the many PC candidates set to be nominated at the end of January a months to knock on doors and organize before the vote is called. The PCs are scheduled to select their candidates for the Senate Nominee election on February 10 and 11.
Meanwhile, the other opposition parties are continuing their preparations for a Spring election.
The NDP are close to nominating a full-slate of candidates (they have nominated 73 candidates in 87 constituencies) and plan to make regulating Alberta’s expensive energy prices one of their key election issues. NDP leader Brian Mason is the only current party leader with experience leading a party through a previous election.
Rick Miller
The Liberal Party, veering toward the political right under Tory MLA-turned-Liberal leader Raj Sherman, will be without two key staff members when the Assembly returns on February 7. Communications Director Brian Leadbetter announced earlier this month that he would be departing for a new position with the Parkland School Division and Chief of Staff Rick Miller is leaving to peruse a candidacy in Edmonton-Rutherford. Mr. Miller served as the MLA for that constituency from 2004 until 2008, when he was narrowly defeated by now Health & Wellness Minister Fred Horne.
The Liberals are far behind in the nomination process, having only chosen candidates in 23 out of 87 constituencies. Some Liberal insiders have suggested that the Official Opposition party will likely fall short of nominating a full-slate in the upcoming election.
The Alberta Party has nominated 11 candidates and only plans to focus resources on a handful of those when the vote is called.
First-term Calgary-North West Progressive Conservative MLA and former cabinet minister Lindsay Blackett has announced on his website that he will not be seeking re-election. Mr. Blackett served as Minister of Culture & Community Spirit from 2008 until 2010, when Premier Alison Redford appointed her first cabinet. During his time in cabinet, Mr. Blackett was known for his controversial support of controversial reforms to Alberta’s human rights legislation (Bill 44), his review of Canadian television, and pioneering our new provincial slogan.
Here is the letter that was posted on Mr. Blackett’s website today:
DEAR FRIENDS,
It is with mixed emotions that I send this message to you. I have decided that in the best interests of my family and myself I will not run as the candidate for Calgary Northwest.
I have truly enjoyed the work that we have done together “To Make A Difference” in the seven communities of Calgary North West. I made the promise to many constituents, that I would not be a career politician, I would be a strong and effective voice for them and would not let them down.
My family has supported me wholeheartedly over the last four years and have made many sacrifices, so that I could do my job. However that has meant that I have been away from home a lot and realize my children are now 13 and 11 and need me to be around more.
This is a decision that has taken about six months to arrive at and is not taken lightly. I am proud of our accomplishments and would like thank our Premier, The Honourable Alison Redford and Ed Stelmach for the opportunities they have given me to serve Albertans.
I know this may come as a shock to many of you and for that I am indeed sorry.
Under elections finance legislation in Alberta, it is illegal for these entities to make financial contributions to a political party.
Perhaps it is the ingrained institutionalism of the Progressive Conservative Association as Alberta’s governing party for more than 40 years that has made these types of allegations seem unsurprising and feel normal. Is this just how municipalities and public institutions do business in a virtual one-party state like Alberta?
I offer three thoughts on this issue:
1) If laws were broken, then those laws need to be enforced and mechanisms need to be created so that these laws are not broken again.
2) These illegal donations were not collected in desperation. The PCs did not need this money. In 2010, the governing party raised more than $3 million, which is twice that of the closest opposition party (the Wildrose Party). I have the impression that some of these financial contributions were solicited and collected by local volunteers, most whom may have unknowingly broken the law (…because this is they way business has always been done in Alberta).
Alberta’s opposition parties are skilled at generating angry and outraged media releases, but proving to Albertans that they are fit to govern is a completely different challenge.
