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Alberta Politics

Alberta Election 2019: By The Numbers

Sunset at the Alberta Legislature (source: Dave Cournoyer)

Date of Alberta’s 2019 election: April 16, 2019
Date of Alberta’s next election: Between March 1 and May 31, 2023
Total number of votes cast in the 2019 election: 1,894,985
Total number of votes cast in the 2015 election: 1,488,248
District with highest voter turnout: 80.2 per cent in Grande Prairie-Wapiti
District with lowest voter turnout: 45.8 per cent in Calgary-East
Total number of re-elected MLAs: 41
Total number of new MLAs: 46
MLAs in the Government Caucus: 63
MLAs in the Opposition: 24
Number of women in the Government Caucus: 15 out of 63
Number of women in the Opposition Caucus: 11 out of 24
Most votes for a candidate: 20,579 for UCP candidate Jason Nixon in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre
Highest percentage of votes for a candidate: 81.6 per cent for UCP candidate Jason Nixon in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre
Longest serving re-elected MLA: Rachel Notley, MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona has served 4061 days since she was first elected in the 2008 provincial election.
Closest race: Calgary-Falconridge. UCP candidate Devinder Toor defeated NDP candidate Parmeet Singh Boparai by 96 votes.
Youngest elected MLA: Miranda Rosin, 23-years old, in Banff-Kananaskis.
Total vote for the United Conservative Party in 2019: 1,040,004
Total vote for the Wildrose Party and PC Party in 2015: 774,121
Total vote for the NDP in 2019: 619,147
Total vote for the NDP in 2015: 604,518
Total vote for the Alberta Party in 2019: 171,996
Total vote for the Alberta Party in 2015: 33,221
Total vote for the Liberal Party in 2019: 18,546
Total vote for the Liberal Party in 2015: 62,153

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8 races I am watching on Election Night in Alberta

At this point in Alberta’s election campaign, I am frequently being asked “what races are you watching on election night?” The short answer is, I am watching all of them, but there are a few specific races that I will be keeping my eye on when the polls close at 8:00 p.m. on April 16:

Banff-Kananaskis: This has been a long-time conservative voting district, but New Democratic Party MLA Cam Westhead was elected in 2015 with 43 per cent of the vote, nabbing it away from PC MLA Ron Casey. This time Westhead is facing United Conservative Party candidate Miranda Rosin, who claims her party does not support the locally controversial Springbank Dam, despite her party saying the opposite. Westhead has the support of numerous local municipal politicians who describe him as a strong advocate for the area. And the redistribution of the electoral boundaries has removed conservative-voting Cochrane from the district, making this one to watch in my books.

Calgary-Bow: NDP candidate Deborah Drever’s win in the 2015 election was a surprise and even after a rough start to her first term, she appeared to have redeemed herself. She faces her main challenge from UCP candidate Demetrios Nicolaides in this election. This is one of the Calgary districts the NDP will need to hold on to if they have any hope of forming government on April 16.

Calgary-Elbow: Greg Clark was leader of the Alberta Party when he was elected as the party’s only MLA in 2015. He is no longer the leader and he is running for re-election in 2019 against for conservative lawyer Doug Schweitzer. Clark has been an effective opposition voice in the Legislature and deserves a second-term, but it’s yet to be seen whether he can survive the challenge from the UCP and NDP candidate Janet Eremenko.

Calgary-Mountain View: A dog’s breakfast. Four-term Liberal MLA David Swann is retiring and all the parties are now scrambling to contest this district. Liberal Party leader David Khan, NDP Justice Minister Kathleen Ganley, last minute UCP nominee Jeremy Wong, Alberta Party candidate and former radio broadcaster Angela Kokott, and Green Party candidate Thana Boonlert are in the mix. My money is on Ganley winning, but it really could be anybody’s game.

Edmonton-McClung: NDP MLA Lorne Dach is facing two strong challengers in Alberta Party leader Stephen Mandel and UCP candidate Laurie Mozeson. It is hard to tell who the front-runner is in this contest, but all three are contenders.

Edmonton-West Henday: NDP MLA Jon Carson is facing a strong challenge from lobbyist and former PC ministerial aide Nicole Williams in this newly redrawn northwest Edmonton district. Carson was elected in 2015 as the MLA for Edmonton-Meadowlark, which has at various times switched hands from the NDP, Liberals and PCs going back to the 1980s.

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville: East of Edmonton this district could produce some interesting results. NDP MLA Jessica Littlewood is running for re-election and her main challenger is UCP candidate Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk. Littlewood is locally renowned for her travel through the constituency, and despite hotly contested nomination races in other districts, Armstrong-Homeniuk was acclaimed for the UCP nod in this district.

Lethbridge-West: As Environment & Parks Minister, Shannon Phillips has been one of the Notley government’s most prominent voices. Phillips has a strong ground game and is as smart as a whip, but the UCP has poured a lot of resources into the campaign of her main challenger, real estate agent Karri Flatla. My money is on Phillips winning re-election, but it could be close.

And here are a few other things I am watching:

Are there any races you are watching that I have missed? Let me know!

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Alberta Politics

A Big Nomination Candidate Update: Airdrie-Cochrane to Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright

Alberta Election candidates Janis Irwin, Miranda Rosin, Janet Eremenko, and Rebecca Schulz.
Alberta Election candidates Janis Irwin, Miranda Rosin, Janet Eremenko, and Rebecca Schulz.

Photo: Alberta Election candidates Janis Irwin, Miranda Rosin, Janet Eremenko, and Rebecca Schulz.

It has been a busy few weeks for provincial candidate nominations in Alberta. I fell a bit behind last week with my updates, so here is some of the latest candidate nomination news ahead of Alberta’s provincial election:

Airdrie-Cochrane – Peter Guthrie defeated Morgan Nagel, Mauri Stiff, and Laura Talsma to secure the United Conservative Party nomination on October 20, 2018 in this new district northwest of Calgary. Ian Chitwood‘s candidacy was not accepted by the party before the vote was held.

 Guthrie is a former owner of a Mr. Lube franchise in north east Calgary and a former co-owner of a ranch near Castor. He was endorsed by former sportscaster and recent Airdrie-East UCP nomination candidate Roger Millions and former Rocky View County councillor and Calgary-Centre Member of Parliament Eric Lowther. Stiff had been endorsed by Airdrie UCP MLA Angela Pitt, who is running for re-election in the neighbouring Airdrie-East district.

Banff-Kananaskis: Miranda Rosin defeated Scott Wagner and Michael Zubkow to secure the UCP nomination in this mountain and foothills district west of Calgary on October 27, 2018. Rosin was endorsed by UCP MLAs Leela Aheer, Drew Barnes, Angela Pitt, MP Blake Richards, developer Cal Wenzel, and Canmore town councillor Rob Seeley. 

Calgary-Acadia: Former city councillor Brian Pincott will be nominated as the New Democratic Party candidate in this district on October 25, 2018. Pincott represented Ward 11 on Calgary City Council from 2007 to 2017.

Lawyer and UCP activist Tyler Shandro defeated Amina Beecroft and David Guenter to secure the UCP nomination on October 28, 2018. 

Shandro had the blessing of Calgary’s conservative political establishment with the endorsements of UPC MLAs Ric McIver, Nathan Cooper, Jason Nixon, Mike Ellis, city councillors Sean Chu, Jeff Davison, Ward Sutherland and Peter Demong, MPs Ron Liepert and Len Webber, and former Progressive Conservative MLAs Harvey Cenaiko, Jim Dinning, Karen Kryczka, Donna Kennedy-Glans, and Rick Orman.

Calgary-Bow: Demetrios Nicolaides defeated Calgary Board of Education trustee Lisa Davis, Cheryl Durkee, and 2015 PC Party candidate Byron Nelson the UCP nomination contest on October 23, 2018.

Nicolaides was endorsed by UCP MLA Richard Gotfried, Nathan Cooper, Calgary MP Stephanie Kusie, Ontario MP Pierre Pollievre, and Calgary-Buffalo UCP candidate Tom Olsen and Calgary-Glenmore candidate Whitney Issik. Davis was endorsed by UCP MLA Mike Ellis.

Calgary-Cross: Farhan Baig’s candidacy in the UCP nomination contest has not been accepted by the UCP.

Calgary-Currie: Lindsay Luhnau was nominated as the Alberta Party nomination in this district. Past candidate Tony Norman withdrew from the contest before the vote.

Calgary-East: Robert O’Leary’s candidacy in the UCP nomination contest has not been accepted by the UCP.

Calgary-Elbow: Janet Eremenko was nominated as the NDP candidate on October 18, 2018. Eremenko was a candidate for Calgary City Council in Ward 11 in the October 2017 election where she finished third with 20 percent of the vote.

Calgary-Falconridge: Gurjinder Dhillon and Jesse Minhas are now seeking the UCP nomination in this district. Minhas previously withdrew from the UCP nomination contest in Calgary-Cross. Minhas ran for the PC Party nomination in Calgary-Cross ahead of the 2015 election and was the Wildrose Party candidate in Calgary-East in the 2012 election.

Calgary-Glenmore: Scott Appleby is seeking the Alberta Party nomination

Calgary-North East: Jerry Gautreau and Manjit Jaswal have withdrawn from the UCP nomination contest in this district.

Calgary-Shaw: Rebecca Schulz defeated past Wildrose Party candidate Mark Mantei, party activist and party activist and past federal Conservative nomination candidate Jack Redekop, and Daniel McLean to win the UCP nomination on October 20, 2018.

Schulz is the director of marketing and communications at the University of Calgary and until 2016 was the director of communications for the Saskatchewan Ministry of Education. She was endorsed by MP Stephanie Kusie, UCP MLAs Nathan Cooper and Jason Nixon, and former Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall.

Calgary-Varsity: Jason Copping defeated Lesley Doell, John Huang, Michael Kim, Grace Lane, and John Volponi to win the UCP nomination in Calgary-Varsity. Copping was endorsed by MP Len Webber, former Calgary-Varsity PC MLA Murray Smith, 2015 PC Party candidate Susan Billington.

NDP stalwart Anne McGrath was acclaimed as her party’s candidate in this district.

Green Party leader Cheryle Chagnon-Greyeyes has been nominated by her party to run in Calgary-Varsity. Chagnon-Greyeyes was selected as her party’s leader in an October 2018 leadership race.

Edmonton-Ellerslie – Yash Sharma was disqualified as the Alberta Party candidate in this district.

Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood: Educator and community advocate Janis Irwin was acclaimed at a nomination meeting on October 23, 2018. Irwin currently works as a Director of Stakeholder Relations in the Office of the Premier and previously worked on the curriculum changes being implemented by the Department of Education. She ran as the federal NDP candidate in Edmonton-Greisbach in the 2015 federal election, placing a strong second behind Conservative candidate Kerry Diotte.

With exception of a brief period from 1993 to 1997, most of this district has been represented by the NDP since 1986. Irwin is succeeding former NDP leader Brian Mason, who has represented the district since 2000 and is retiring when the next election is called.

Tish Prouse defeated Brian Gratrix to become the Alberta Party candidate in this district on October 9, 2018.

Edmonton-Manning: Harjinder Grewal is seeking the UCP nomination.

Edmonton-Riverview: Katherine O’Neill is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. O’Neill was the PC Party candidate in Edmonton-Meadowlark in the 2015 election. She later served as president of the PC Party and left the party shortly after Jason Kenney won the leadership in 2017. Before entering politics, O’Neill was a reporter for the Globe & Mail.

Edmonton-West Henday: Nicole Williams defeated Leila Houle on October 22, 2018 to secure the United Conservative Party nomination in the newly redrawn Edmonton-West Henday district. A third candidate, Lance Coulter, was disqualified after comments made following a week long fiasco involving the three candidates posing for photos with members of the anti-immigration white nationalist Soldiers of Odin vigilant group.

Williams is a senior associate with Canadian Strategy Group and previously worked as an assistant to various MLAs and cabinet ministers in the old Progressive Conservative government.

Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche: Rookie UCP MLA Laila Goodridge defied rumours of an impending defeat by securing the UCP nomination on October 26, 2018. Goodridge defeated former Lac La Biche County councillor Gail Broadbent-Ludwig and former Wood Buffalo mayoral candidate Allan Grandson.

Lesser Slave Lake – John Middelkoop is seeking the UCP nomination.

Lethbridge-East/Livingstone-Macleod: Nathan Neudorf has withdrawn from the UCP nomination contest in Lethbridge-East and is now seeking the UCP nominaton in Livingstone-Macleod.

Morinville-St. Albert: Shane St. Arnault has withdrawn from the UCP nomination contest. St. Arsenault is the owner of Shane’s Guardian Pharmacy in Redwater.

Red Deer-North: Catholic School Board trustee Adriana LaGrange defeated former Wildrose Caucus staffer Cole Kander and Red Deer City Councillor Lawrence Lee to secure UCP nomination on October 27, 2018. LaGrange has been endorsed by Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan Conservative MP Garnett Genuis and former Red Deer-North PC MLA Mary Anne Jablonski. Kander had been endorsed by Conservative MP Dane Lloyd, and UCP MLAs Drew Barnes, Scott Cyr, Grant Hunter.

On October 3, 2018, LaGrange hosted an event for the right-wing Parents for Choice in Education group, an advocacy group that has been a vocal opponent of student-initiated Gay-Straight Alliance clubs in Alberta schools.

Dr. Paul Hardy has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate in this district. Hardy is one of the founding members of the Society for Fair and Transparent Health Funding to Central Alberta,

Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright: Jenelle Saskiw is seeking the UCP nomination. Saskiw served as the mayor of the Village of Marwayne and currently works as a senior advisor to Alberta Counsel, an Edmonton-based lobbyist and legal firm founded by former Wildrose MLA Shayne Saskiw and lawyer Jon Wescott.

Note: The Alberta Party nominated a whole batch of candidates immediately before their recent annual general meeting. I am trying to get the list of those candidates straight, so I will try to include those candidates in my next nomination update.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

 

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Monday Night Candidate Nomination Update

In Photo: Jason Luan, Mauri Stiff, Deron Bilous, Thomas Dang, Mark Smith, Marc Slingerland
In Photo: Jason Luan, Mauri Stiff, Deron Bilous, Thomas Dang, Mark Smith, Marc Slingerland

Here are some of the latest updates to the list of candidates running for party nominations ahead of Alberta’s expected 2019 provincial general election:

Airdrie-Cochrane: Airdrie realtor Mauri Stiff is seeking the United Conservative Party nomination.

Banff-Kananaskis – Miranda Rosin and restaurant owner Scott Winograd are seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-Acadia – NDP MLA Brandy Payne announced last week that she will not be seeking re-election in 2019. Payne was first elected in 2015 when she unseated former Justice Minister Jonathan Denis. She has served as Associate Minister of Health since 2016. David Guenter is seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-Beddington – Randy Kerr is seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-Elbow – Lawyer and former UCP leadership candidate Doug Schweitzer is seeking the UCP nomination in Calgary-Elbow. Schweitzer placed third in last year’s UCP leadership contest and if he wins his party’s nomination, he will face off against Alberta Party MLA Greg Clark in the next election.

Calgary-Foothills – Former Progressive Conservative MLA Jason Luan is seeking the UCP nomination. Luan served as MLA for Calgary-Hawkwood from 2012 to 2015, when he was unseated by NDP candidate Michael Connolly. The Foothills district is currently represented by UCP MLA Prasad Panda, who was first elected as a Wildrose candidate in a 2016 by-election to replace former MLA Jim Prentice.

Calgary-Hays – Two-term MLA Ric McIver is seeking re-election as the UCP candidate. McIver was elected in 2012 and 2015 as a Progressive Conservative and sought that party’s leadership in 2014.

Calgary-Klein – Two time Wildrose candidate Jeremy Nixon is seeking the UCP nomination. Nixon ran in this district under the Wildrose banner in 2012 and 2015. He is the brother of Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre MLA Jason Nixon.

Calgary-Piegan – Andrew Griffin and Jeevan Mangat are seeking the UCP nomination. Mangat was the Wildrose Party candidate in Calgary-Fort in the 2015 election.

Calgary-West – MLA Mike Ellis is seeking re-election under the UCP banner. Ellis was elected in a 2014 by-election and the 2015 general election as a PC candidate.

Cardston-Siksika – Joseph Schow and Marc Slingerland are challenging MLA Dave Schneider for the UCP nomination in this newly redrawn southern rural district that largely covers the areas included in the current Cardston-Taber-Warner and Little Bow districts. Slingerland was a Christian Heritage Party candidate in the 2006, 2008 and 2011 federal elections and the 2015 federal by-election in Foothills.

Drayton Valley-Devon – MLA Mark Smith is seeking the UCP nomination. Smith was first elected in 2015 as a Wildrose Party candidate.

Drumheller-Stettler – Nathan Horner is seeking the UCP nomination in this district, which is currently represented by UCP MLA Rick Strankman.

Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview – NDP MLA Deron Bilous is seeking his party’s nomination to run for re-election. Bilous was first elected in this district in 2012 and was re-elected in 2015. He was one of four NDP incumbents to run in the 2015 election and currently serves as Minister of Economic Development and Trade.

Edmonton-South – MLA Thomas Dang is running for the NDP nomination in this newly redrawn southwest Edmonton district. Dang was first elected as MLA for Edmonton-Southwest in 2015. Edmonton-South includes most of the east half of the district he currently represents. Running for the UCP nomination in this district is Payman Parseyan. Parseyan ran in the 2017 Edmonton municipal election in Ward 9, placing fourth with 15.3 percent of the vote.

Edmonton-Whitemud – Nawaz Panhwer is seeking the UCP nomination. Panhwer is Infrastructure Manager for the Town of Redwater and the former VP Finance of the PC Association in the district. His nomination is being endorsed by MPs Matt Jeneoroux, Kerry Diotte, and Michael Cooper, and former PC MLAs Naresh Bhardwaj and Sohail Quadri.

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville – Campbell Pomeroy is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.

Leduc-Beaumont – Sharon Smith is seeking the UCP nomination. Smith ran for the Wildrose Party in this district in the 2015 election. She placed second with 29 percent of the vote.

Lethbridge-West – George Rigaux and Rick Dempsey are seek the UCP nomination. Rigaux was the chief organizer for the Reform Party in British Columbia ahead of the 1997 federal election. He is reported to have resigned from that position before the election after the media reported him making controversial comments about the role played by the Sikh community in party nominations that year.

Morinville-St. Albert – Gibbons town councillor Amber Harris has announced plans to seek the UCP nomination. Harris made news in November 2017 when she raised concerns on Facebook about the construction of gender-neutral washrooms at the Sturgeon Composite High School.

Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin – Business owner Sandra Kim has announced plans to seek the UCP nomination.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list.

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