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Alberta Politics

Mark Carney’s broad approval dwarfs Danielle Smith and Naheed Nenshi

There’s nothing like a Janet Brown poll to shake up Alberta politics

There’s a lot to unpack in the new Alberta politics poll by Janet Brown Opinion Research commissioned by CBC, but before I dive into what one of the province’s most well-respected pollsters has to say about support for Alberta’s political parties, separatism, and AI data centres it’s worth spending a moment reflecting on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s popularity in Alberta.

Carney’s popularity continues to dwarf Premier Danielle Smith and NDP leader Naheed Nenshi and he might be the most popular Liberal Prime Minister in Alberta since Sir Wilfrid Laurier more than 100 years ago.

According to Brown’s poll, 52 percent of Albertans surveyed said they were very impressed with Carney and only 26 percent said they were not at all impressed. Only 30 percent of Albertans surveyed said they were very impressed with Danielle Smith and 51 percent said they were not at all impressed with her job as Premier.

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Alberta Politics

The UCP loss in Calgary-Shaw and the thin end of the separatist wedge

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has had a rough few weeks.

Ten days ago, Smith’s United Conservative Party lost the by-election in Calgary-Shaw, a south Calgary riding that had been a stronghold for her party in the last two elections. The surprise win by NDP candidate Kyle Campbell has been widely interpreted as a backlash against Smith’s referendums on October 19, including a vote on Alberta’s separation from Canada.

Smith quickly blamed the loss on vote splitting with the Progressive Tory Party candidate who earned 6 percent of the vote, but that doesn’t explain the 22.2 point drop in UCP support in the riding since the 2019 election. The Progressive Tories may have been a dynamic in the race but they weren’t the reason why the UCP lost the Calgary-Shaw by-election.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Wow! Just wow. NDP’s Kyle Campbell wins Calgary-Shaw by-election.

The Calgary-Shaw by-election was supposed to be a sleepy race and an easy win for the United Conservative Party but it ended up being a nail-biter with a surprise NDP win.

The Alberta NDP’s Kyle Campbell did what many political watchers believed would never happen by beating UCP candidate Mike Derry to win the by-election in the south Calgary riding that was a UCP stronghold under former cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz.

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Alberta Politics

UCP’s Mike Derry the favourite to win the Calgary-Shaw by-election

Provincial cabinet ministers have poured into Calgary-Shaw to support UCP candidate Mike Derry and Danielle Smith has campaigned with him numerous times since the by-election campaign started last month.

Derry is the favourite to win the by-election but the vote is also a test for Smith, who has led a government mired in controversy and a party deeply divided on whether Alberta should separate from Canada.

Smith’s absence from any visible pro-Canada campaigns ahead of her October 19 separation referendum has raised a lot of eyebrows, especially after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s full-throated support of Thomas Lukaszuk’s Forever Canadian campaign in Banff this week.

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Alberta Politics

UCP disqualifies Karen Peters from Grande Prairie-Wapiti nomination race, MLA Ron Wiebe expected to be acclaimed

Karen Peters has been disqualifed from the United Conservative Party nomination contest in Grande Prairie-Wapiti, making first-term MLA Ron Wiebe widely expected to be acclaimed to run for re-election in the 2027 provincial election.

Peters was the UCP constituency president in the northwest Alberta riding and has posted on her personal Facebook page about chemtrails and vaccination conspiracy theories. These posts raised eyebrows among political watchers but neither issue is grounds for disqualification in the current UCP.

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Alberta Politics

Calgary-Shaw by-election called for September 14, ahead of Alberta’s separation referendum

Premier Danielle Smith has set Monday, September 14 as the date of the by-election vote in the Calgary-Shaw riding vacated by former UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz earlier this year.

The by-election will see UCP candidate Mike Derry face New Democrat Kyle Campbell, with Progressive Tory candidate Kyle Joseph trying to break into what has been a two-party race in Alberta politics, and Liberal Party leader John Roggeveen trying to get his party back on the radar.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Alberta separatism referendum will be impossible to ignore in Calgary-Shaw by-election

The NDP were quick to put United Conservative Party candidate Mike Derry on the spot on the issue of Alberta separatism, which voters will face in a province-wide referendum on October 19.

An NDP press release sent out the night of Derry’s nomination win questioned his support from Darrell Komick, the president of the UCP constituency association in the neighbouring Calgary-Lougheed who ran in the UCP board president election last year on a pro-independence platform, and campaign manager Craig Chandler, a well-known right-wing political organizer in Calgary.

Chandler recently ran City Councillor Mike Jamieson’s successful election campaign in Ward 12 and is believed to be involved in Erin Averbukh’s campaign for the UCP nomination in the Calgary-Acadia riding (Averbukh’s only competitor in that race at the moment is former Wildrose Independence Party leader Jeevan Mangat).

While polls show that a majority of UCP supporters would vote for Alberta’s separation from Canada, the majority of Alberta voters would vote to remain in Canada. The NDP will undoubtably try to use the by-election to put pressure on the UCP’s internal division on Alberta separatism.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

It’s Kyle Campbell vs. Mike Derry in Calgary-Shaw by-election

Campbell will face United Conservative Party candidate Mike Derry, who surprised many political watchers last week when he defeated City Councillor Dan McLean in the party’s nomination vote.

With 507 total ballots cast in the UCP membership vote in Calgary-Shaw, Derry earned 286 votes to McLean’s 221 votes. Fifty-three per cent of party members in the riding turned out to vote at the nomination meeting.

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Alberta Politics

Alberta NDP nominate Kyle Campbell as their candidate in Calgary-Shaw by-election

Campbell will face UCP’s Mike Derry in race to replace Rebecca Schulz

The Alberta NDP have nominated Kyle Campbell to run as the opposition party’s candidate in the upcoming Calgary-Shaw by-election to choose a new MLA following Rebecca Schulz’s resignation last month.

The by-election in this southwest Calgary riding will be an uphill battle for the NDP but, whenever it’s called in the next five months, it will take place during one of the most unpredictable periods in Alberta politics in recent memory.

There is no shortage of issues of the NDP to focus on in this by-election and it looks like health care and affordability will be top of mind for Campbell as he hits the doors.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

How important is the Calgary-Shaw by-election?

It is very easy to overstate the importance of by-elections, but there is little doubt that the results of the by-election in Calgary-Shaw will be interpreted as a measurement of support for Premier Danielle Smith referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada and her government’s handling of health care and affordability issues.

It will also be an important test for NDP leader Naheed Nenshi, who served as Mayor of Calgary from 2010 to 2021 and won the party’s leadership in 2024 on his ability to increase the party’s support in Calgary.

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Alberta Politics

Mike Derry wins Calgary-Shaw UCP nomination, defeats city councillor Dan McLean

NDP expected to nominate Kyle Campbell on June 26

Talent management company owner Mike Derry defeated City Councillor Dan McLean to win the United Conservative Party nomination in Calgary-Shaw at a candidate selection vote on June 24.

The nomination vote was held to choose a UCP candidate in the upcoming by-election to replace former UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz, who stepped down on May 15, 2026.

Derry owns the LegenDERRY talent management company and was the talent management lead for Canadian Natural Resources Limited from 2013 to 2022 and is a coach with the Bow Valley Hockey Society. He was the Chief Financial Officer of Calgary-South East UCP association and has volunteered with Conservative MP Tom Kmiec‘s campaign in Calgary Shepard.

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Alberta Politics

NDP MLA Amanda Chapman running for re-election in Calgary-Beddington

NDP MLA Amanda Chapman was nominated to run for re-election in Calgary-Beddington at a nomination meeting yesterday.

Chapman was first elected in 2023 after defeating UCP MLA Josephine Pon in a close race.

More NDP nominations are coming up soon:

  • June 16: MLA David Eggen will be nominated in Edmonton-North West and MLA David Shepherd will be nominated in Edmonton-City Centre.
  • June 24: Sarah Elmeligi will be nominated in Banff-Kananaskis.
  • June 25: MLA Marie Renaud will be nominated in St. Albert and Sharif Haji will be nominated in Edmonton-Decore.
  • June 26: Kyle Campbell will be nominated in Calgary-Shaw ahead of an expected by-election.
  • June 28: MLA Brooks Arcand-Paul will be nominated in Edmonton-West Henday.

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Alberta Politics

Kyle Campbell running for NDP nomination in Calgary-Shaw by-election

Somerset Residents Association President Kyle Campbell is the first candidate to enter the Alberta NDP nomination in Calgary-Shaw ahead of the expected by-election. The NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting on Friday, June 26 at 7:00 pm at the Cardel Rec South.

According to his LinkedIn profile, Campbell is the Director of Employee Benefits for Qopia Financial and previously worked as Senior Sales Consultant for RBC Insurance. He studied Global Supply Chain Management at Brigham Young University.

“I’m running to protect the essential services our province delivers. My life is deeply impacted by the province of Alberta: career opportunities, public education for my children, cancer care for myself, and more,” Campbell told Daveberta.

“I’m running to ensure that as my kids grow up that they are afforded the same quality of life, and quality of protection that I’ve benefited from,” Campbell said. “I’m keen to protect their rights as Albertans, and their privileges as Canadians.”

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Alberta Politics

Rebecca Schulz resigns, UCP and NDP set nomination dates for Calgary-Shaw by-election

A by-election in Calgary-Shaw is imminent following the resignation of United Conservative Party MLA Rebecca Schulz, who stepped down last month after representing the riding since 2019. Schulz served as Minister of Environment and Protected Areas until her resignation from cabinet last December.

The UCP nomination contest is now set for June 24 but the race got one candidate smaller this week after Stewart Jeanes was told by the UCP that he will not be allowed to run after his application was deemed incomplete.

Jeanes’ candidacy in the Calgary-Shaw nomination contest was recently endorsed by Mitch Sylvestre, the Alberta separatist leader and UCP constituency president from Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul who led the Stay Free Alberta petition drive to leave Canada.

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