Tag: Stay Free Alberta

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Alberta Politics

Six takeaways from Alberta’s Referendum and what’s next in our wild west politics

This photo of a defaced separatist campaign sign was widely circulated on social media following the failure of the Alberta separation referendum (source: Facebook)
This photo of a defaced separatist campaign sign was widely circulated on social media following the failure of the Alberta separation referendum (source: Facebook)

Albertans embrace staying in Canada, reject Danielle Smith’s constitutional reforms, give the UCP weak mandate on immigration questions

With 5,536 of 5,537 polling stations reporting and 20,514,670 total ballots cast, we now have a much better look at the results of Alberta’s 10 referendum questions than we did when the vote counting started late Monday night.

1. Support for Alberta remaining in Canada is strong across the board

Option 1 to support Alberta remaining a province in Canada has earned 1,545,242 votes so far, totalling 75% of the vote on the most high profile of the 10 referendum questions. Separatists appealing to Albertans in the final weeks of the campaign to send a message to Ottawa by voting for Option 2 to hold a future binding referendum on separation, earned 514,043 votes — 25% of the total province-wide vote.

The vote to remain in Canada was strong across Alberta but strongest in the two largest urban centres and in First Nations communities.

More than 80% of voters in every riding in Edmonton voted for Alberta to stay in Canada, and the remain side earned more than 75% of the vote in every Calgary riding. More than 79% of voters in the cities of Airdrie and Lethbridge and the Banff-Kananaskis riding supported remaining in Canada. Turnout reached historic highs in many First Nations communities with support more than 90% in favour of remaining in Canada.

Many ridings outside the big cities voted to remain by more than 60% and only a majority of voters in two ridings voted for Option 2 to hold another referendum to leave. Separatists earned 50.9% in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre and 50.3% in Central Peace-Notley ridings. Results were also close in the Drumheller-Stettler and Taber-Warner ridings.

It is worth noting that the separation option received less votes than the total number of signatures that would have been required to trigger a citizen initiative referendum when the Citizen Initiative Act was initially passed in 2021 (the signature threshold was later significantly lowered by Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party government to accommodate the separatist Stay Free Alberta petition).

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Alberta Politics

Captain Forever Canadian Thomas Lukaszuk

Forever Canadian leader Thomas Lukaszuk (source: Forever Canadian / Facebook)
Forever Canadian leader Thomas Lukaszuk (source: Forever Canadian / Facebook)

Former PC cabinet minister put himself out there and led the pro-Canada crew from the beginning

Prime Minister Mark Carney was the big draw at the rally and has comfortably stepped into the Alberta referendum campaign as Captain Canada. The Prime Minister drew the biggest cheers from the energetic crowd of Edmontonians but it was Forever Canadian founder Thomas Lukaszuk who walked on the stage as one of the biggest stars of this referendum campaign.

The former four-term Progressive Conservative MLA from Edmonton-Castle Downs and provincial cabinet minister, known for his flamboyant hair and flashy and confrontational style in the Legislature, took a very public stand against separatism early in this latest round of the Alberta independence debate. Lukaszuk put himself out there when no other conservative politician, current or former, wanted to touch the issue with a 10-metre pole.

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Alberta Politics

Avnish Nanda: Let’s crush Alberta separatism together; vote remain and no to the nine.

The Province of Alberta was created on September 1, 1905, a year remembered on the Centennial Flame monument on Parliament Hill in Ottawa. (photo: Dave Cournoyer)
The Province of Alberta was created on September 1, 1905, a year remembered on the Centennial Flame monument on Parliament Hill in Ottawa. (photo: Dave Cournoyer)

Falling for the trap — voting yes —only strengthens the resolve of separatists.

Over the past eight months, Our Alberta Advantage has spoken to hundreds of thousands of Albertans about the risk this fall’s referendum poses to the province. Tens of thousands of those conversations have been in person — in community halls, temple basements, and the living rooms and kitchen tables of Albertans who belong to the array of cultural communities that weave the rich and diverse social tapestry that is Alberta.

Our Alberta Advantage was the first third party advertiser registered with Elections Alberta for the referendum. It formed shortly after Premier Danielle Smith announced that she would put to Albertans a series of immigration and constitutional questions. At the time, as a lawyer in my day job, I had acted for a federalist organization opposed to Premier Smith’s bulldozing of legislative safeguards to appease the separatists and clear a path to a binding independence referendum. After watching Premier Smith’s televised address outlining the referendum questions, I knew that the initiative was part of her broader agenda to maintain support of the separatist faction that is at the core of her political (re)ascendence.

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Alberta Politics

Rebecca Schulz resigns, UCP and NDP set nomination dates for Calgary-Shaw by-election

Rebecca Schulz speaking at the United Conservative Party Leaders Dinner in Calgary in 2025 (source: Rebecca Schulz / Facebook)
Rebecca Schulz speaking at the United Conservative Party Leaders Dinner in Calgary in 2025 (source: Rebecca Schulz / Facebook)

A by-election in Calgary-Shaw is imminent following the resignation of United Conservative Party MLA Rebecca Schulz, who stepped down last month after representing the riding since 2019. Schulz served as Minister of Environment and Protected Areas until her resignation from cabinet last December.

The UCP nomination contest is now set for June 24 but the race got one candidate smaller this week after Stewart Jeanes was told by the UCP that he will not be allowed to run after his application was deemed incomplete.

Jeanes’ candidacy in the Calgary-Shaw nomination contest was recently endorsed by Mitch Sylvestre, the Alberta separatist leader and UCP constituency president from Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul who led the Stay Free Alberta petition drive to leave Canada.

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Danielle Smith dug the separatist hole she’s now stuck in

UCP leader Danielle Smith on election night in Calgary (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)
UCP leader Danielle Smith on election night in Calgary (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)

Former conservative premiers Ralph Klein and Peter Lougheed told Alberta separatists to pound dirt

An Angus Reid survey released this week found that 56 per cent of Albertans believe Smith is handling the separatism issue poorly and 58 per cent believe she is calling the referendum to appease the separatists in her party. Sixty-nine per cent of Albertans surveyed believe the separatists will never accept a no vote result in the referendum.

Smith dug the political hole she now finds herself in. After years of bending over backward for the separatists in her party by amending laws, fuelling the flames of resentment, and appealing for them to the courts, she has found herself in a politically untenable situation. Simply claiming to be pro-Canada at the eleventh hour is hilariously unconvincing.

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Alberta Politics

Yes, Alberta is actually having a separation referendum

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, US President-elect Donald Trump, and celebrity investor Kevin O’Leary (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, US President Donald Trump, and celebrity investor Kevin O’Leary (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)

There’s a lot happening following Premier Smith’s announcement last week that she has decided to hold a province-wide referendum on October 19, 2026 about Alberta’s separation from Canada. Here are some of the latest updates:

  • “The party won’t be taking a position and I won’t be making mine public,” UCP President Rob Smith told CBC Radio this week when asked if he or the governing party would pick a side in the Alberta separation referendum. Most polls show a majority of UCP voters support Alberta separating from Canada.
  • Environics and Angus Reid have released fresh polling about Albertans response to Smith’s separation referendum.
    • The Angus Reid survey found that 56 per cent of Albertans believe Smith is handling the issue poorly and 58 per cent believe she is calling the referendum to appease the separatists in her party.
    • Sixty-nine per cent of Albertans surveyed believe the separatists will never accept a no vote result in the referendum.

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Alberta Politics

Separatists are entrenched in Danielle Smith’s UCP and aren’t going away

The Alberta Prosperity Project’s Jeffrey Rath shows off the separatist group’s proposed referendum question in Calgary (source: Facebook).
The Alberta Prosperity Project’s Jeffrey Rath shows off the separatist group’s proposed referendum question in Calgary (source: Facebook).

Former conservative party premiers Peter Lougheed and Ralph Klein would have told the separatists to pound dirt and wouldn’t have allowed them to dig themselves into their party like they have in the UCP.

The referendum will almost certainly further deepen the divide in conservative politics in this province along pro-Canada and pro-separation lines.

In her press conference today, Smith called for the losing side of this referendum to “accept the judgement of people and the direction that we go.”

That seems unlikely.

This referendum is guaranteed to string out this debate.

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Alberta Politics

Referendum for another referendum blocks Alberta’s unilateral declaration of independence

An AI-generated image of Premier Danielle Smith and US President Donald Trump celebrating an “Independent Republic of Alberta” shared by the anonymous pro-separation “Rise of Alberta” Instagram account (source: riseofalberta / Instagram)
An AI-generated image of Premier Danielle Smith and US President Donald Trump celebrating an “Independent Republic of Alberta” shared by the anonymous pro-separation “Rise of Alberta” Instagram account (source: riseofalberta / Instagram)

Grinding the gears of many separatist organizers is the referendum for another referendum-style question.

A referendum to hold a referendum to open constitutional negotiations is a pretty dry rally slogan and it robs more radical separatist elements of the temptation to just unilaterally declare independence if a clear separation question was successful.

Since there is no separation process in the Canadian constitution, we’ll have to guess what Smith believes the next steps would be. Legal minds I have spoken with suggest that the constitution would need to be amended and we all know how long and drawn out that process would be.

Some prominent separatist organizers have openly dangled the threat of American President Donald Trump immediately recognizing Alberta’s independence, forcing the hand of the federal government and other provinces that would want to undertake constitutional negotiations.

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No one is happy with Danielle Smith’s separation referendum question

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at the United Conservative Party’s Leader’s Dinner in Edmonton in March 2025 (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at the United Conservative Party’s Leader’s Dinner in Edmonton in March 2025 (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)

The wording of the referendum question will make no one happy.

Many, if not most, of the more than 456,000 Albertans who signed Thomas Lukaszuk’s pro-Canada Forever Canadian petition did so with the belief it would block an actual separation referendum from ever happening. Lukaszuk said he’d rather have MLAs vote on the question in the Legislature to save Albertans from having a costly and divisive referendum.

The leaders of Alberta’s separatist Stay Free Alberta petition are spitting mad and calling for Smith to be toppled by UCP members for not holding a yes or no question. Some separatist organizers are trying to convince 22 UCP constituency association presidents to sign a letter to trigger a Special General Meeting to remove Smith as party leader before October.

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Danielle Smith shows her love for Canada by holding a separation referendum

Premier Danielle Smith and separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre at a UCP fundraising dinner in Bonnyville in May 2025 (source: Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP / Facebook)
Premier Danielle Smith and separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre at a UCP fundraising dinner in Bonnyville in May 2025 (source: Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP / Facebook)

Does it make any sense? No. But not much does in Alberta politics these days.

“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”

That’s the referendum question that Premier Danielle Smith has decided to put on the 10th paper ballot that Albertans will be handed when they show up to vote on October 19, 2026.

Smith says the wordy multiple choice question was her only option because the court ruling quashing Elections Alberta’s approval of the separatist Stay Free Alberta citizen initiative petition ruled out a question where yes and no were the only answers.

Smith had an option to not hold the referendum at all but she opened this can of worms and it won’t easily be closed. The populist-turned-separatist-wing of the United Conservative Party that booted former premier Jason Kenney and then boosted Smith into the Premier’s Office is now firmly entrenched in the governing party — and they are not going away.

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UCP MLAs treat Forever Canadian’s Thomas Lukaszuk like a hostile witness

Before Glubish’s motion and the UCP’s pre-mature press release, MLAs on the committee heard from former Progressive Conservative MLA Thomas Lukaszuk, who headed last year’s successful Forever Canadian citizen initiative petition.

The UCP MLAs on the committee aggressively questioned Lukaszuk as if he were a hostile witness. It was strange to watch.

Lukaszuk’s petition, which asked the question “Do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada?” collected the signatures of more than 456,000 Albertans. But Lukaszuk and his legion of pro-Canada of volunteers clashed with the growing separatist-wing of the UCP.

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What a gong show! MLA committee chaos crashes UCP separation referendum motion

Leduc-Beaumont UCP MLA and and Special Citizen Initiative Proposal Review Committee chair Brandon Lunty (screenshot from assembly.ab.ca)
Leduc-Beaumont UCP MLA and and Special Citizen Initiative Proposal Review Committee chair Brandon Lunty (screenshot from assembly.ab.ca)

Trigger-happy UCP misfires with Mission Accomplished press release

Brandon Lunty looked like he wanted to crawl out of his own skin when he found out that the United Conservative Party Caucus sent out a press release announcing the adoption of a motion that hadn’t even been voted on yet.

As chair of the Special Citizen Initiative Proposal Review Committee, Leduc-Beaumont UCP MLA Lunty had one job today: to steer a motion through the committee to recommend the adoption of a referendum question on Alberta separation from Canada.

It should have been easy. The UCP has a 3-2 majority on the committee over the opposition NDP and Lunty controlled all the levers. The last minute scheduled hour and a half meeting that was only called on Monday should have given the UCP plenty of time to finish the task if only some poor staffer at the UCP Caucus hadn’t clicked send too early on the press release declaring it was a done deal.

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Alberta Politics

Elected officials should be coming out and voicing our commitment to Canada and to Confederation, says Michael Janz

Thomas Lukaszuk speaks with reporters about the Forever Canadian Avenue proposal with supporters and the Alberta Legislature Building in the background (source: Dave Cournoyer)
Thomas Lukaszuk speaks with reporters about the Forever Canadian Avenue proposal with supporters and the Alberta Legislature Building in the background (source: Dave Cournoyer)

Michael Janz’s Forever Canadian Avenue announcement comes just days after a judge quashed Elections Alberta’s approval of a citizen initiative petition organized by separatist leaders with deep ties to the governing United Conservative Party.

Premier Danielle Smith called the judge’s ruling antidemocratic and declared her government would appeal the decision as separatist leaders publicly threatened her leadership of the party if she didn’t intervene. While a large majority of Albertans support remaining in Canada, a majority of UCP voters tell pollsters they would vote for Alberta to separate from Canada if a referendum is held.

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Danielle Smith will take the pipeline but won’t shelve the separatism talk

Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney speak at a joint press conference in Calgary on Friday, May 15, 2026.
Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney speak at a joint press conference in Calgary on Friday, May 15, 2026.

Will she just call a referendum anyway? Yes, probably.

Expect “We got Alberta a pipeline!” to be splashed all over UCP re-election ads in 2027.

But don’t expect the promise of an oil pipeline to dampen the enthusiasm of Alberta’s separation activists. That was demonstrated clearly last November when Smith was booed by delegates at the UCP AGM when she touted the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding about pipelines and electrification.

For them, it was never about building a pipeline.

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Alberta separation policy resolution submitted for UCP AGM in November 2026

There is already a motion being proposed to adopt separatism as an official party policy at the UCP’s fall AGM.

A divisive policy debate about separatism was narrowly avoided by a vote by the UCP’s provincial board before separatist-endorsed candidates swept the majority of the party’s board positions at year’s AGM in Edmonton.

Emmott Kelsey of the Centurion Project is a UCP member and has submitted a policy resolution for debate at the UCP AGM that would officially endorse Alberta leaving Canada.

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