It is very easy to overstate the importance of by-elections, but there is little doubt that the results of the by-election in Calgary-Shaw will be interpreted as a measurement of support for Premier Danielle Smith referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada and her government’s handling of health care and affordability issues.
It will also be an important test for NDP leader Naheed Nenshi, who served as Mayor of Calgary from 2010 to 2021 and won the party’s leadership in 2024 on his ability to increase the party’s support in Calgary.