Tag: Brian Jean

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Alberta Politics

Calgary Stampede an important marker of political change in Alberta

Harry Strom, the last Social Credit Premier of Alberta, rides in the Calgary Stampede Parade alongside Lieutenant Governor Grant MacEwan.
Before the last major political change in Alberta: Harry Strom, the last Social Credit Premier of Alberta, rides in the Calgary Stampede Parade alongside Lieutenant Governor Grant MacEwan.

Billed as the Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth, the Calgary Stampede is a must-stop destination for political leaders of all stripes and all levels of government. The event also provides a good historical marker of how quickly the political winds of change can sweep through Alberta.

Premier Rachel Notley Calgary Stampede Alberta
Rachel Notley

One year ago at last year’s Stampede, Dave Hancock was Premier of Alberta, Jim Prentice was an unstoppable candidate in the Progressive Conservative leadership race, the memory of Alison Redford was fresh in the minds of Albertans, Danielle Smith led the Wildrose Official Opposition, the Alberta Party was still on the fringe, and the NDP were in the midst of a leadership race many political watchers saw as a sideshow.

Now to this year’s Stampede, Rachel Notley is Premier of Alberta and there are 53 NDP MLAs in the Alberta Legislative Assembly (including 15 from the Calgary area), a former Member of Parliament named Brian Jean leads the Wildrose Official Opposition, former Calgary alderman Ric McIver leads a 9-MLA PC Caucus, Alberta Party leader Greg Clark is an MLA, and Mr. Prentice has disappeared from the political landscape.

Stephen Harper Calgary Stampede
Stephen Harper

The changes that took place between the two Stampedes are an important reminder about how quickly political change can happen, even in a province that is known for turning political parties into governing dynasties.

With the October 19 federal election less than four months away, it is also an important reminder to Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper that even voters in the Canadian conservative movement’s spiritual homeland cannot be taken for granted. That thought must have crossed Mr. Harper’s mind as he met with Ms. Notley for the first time this week in Calgary.

The provincial election win has boosted the NDP’s credibility and organizational strength, especially in Edmonton, but it is not clear how this will translate in the federal election. Ms. Notley’s win has created opportunity for the federal NDP in Alberta, especially for candidates like Janis Irwin in Edmonton-Griesbach and Linda Duncan in Edmonton-Strathcona. As Tom Mulcair‘s federal NDP focus their resources in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia, it is to their advantage to put the Conservatives on the defensive in Alberta, a situation that has not happened very often.

Kent Hehr Liberal Calgary Centre
Kent Hehr

Meanwhile, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has reason to be optimistic after his party’s candidate’s came close to winning by-elections in Calgary-Centre in 2012 and Fort McMurray-Athabasca in 2014. The Liberals have also nominated a slate of high profile candidates that includes Kent Hehr in Calgary-Centre, Darshan Kang in Calgary-Skyview and Amarjeet Sohi in Edmonton-Mill Woods.

The Conservatives are still expected to hold most of Alberta’s ridings in the upcoming federal election but the NDP and Liberals could make gains in the major urban centres.

The truth is that federal Conservatives have always taken Alberta voters for granted, and they have had reason to. Albertans have not elected more than 2 non-conservative MPs in any federal election since 1993. The Conservatives even held all 28 of the province’s federal ridings between 2006 and 2008.

With a federal election fast approaching and and increasingly stale government approaching ten years in Ottawa, the Conservatives may need to spend more time campaigning in Alberta in the next few months, or else there could be a whole new cast of federal politicians wearing plaid shirts and cowboy boots at next year’s Calgary Stampede.

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Alberta Politics

First NDP Throne Speech on message. McIver Tories totally tone deaf in opposition.

The NDP throne speech was predictable and on message

Joe Ceci Calgary NDP
Joe Ceci

The first Speech from the Throne of Alberta NDP Premier Rachel Notley‘s administration included many of the key promises made during the recent provincial election.

The 604,515 Albertans who voted NDP should be pleased that the new government is following through with its promises to end corporate and union donations, increase corporate taxes from 10% to 12%, create a more progressive income tax system, and temporarily restore funding to health care, education and human services that was cut by the previous Progressive Conservative government.

The speech also signalled that the NDP will not rush haphazardly into a review of Alberta’s natural resource royalties, which was a key promise during the election. Despite the increasingly bizarre arguments being published in conservative newspapers, Ms. Notley is smart to take a careful and calm approach to ensuring that Albertans are receiving the best value for their natural resources.

One of the NDP’s largest challenges during this spring sitting of the Legislature falls upon Finance Minister Joe Ceci, who will be responsible for shepherding the Interim Supply Bill that will allow the government to continue operating until a new budget is introduced later in 2015.

Tories tone deaf on corporate donations

Ric McIver
Ric McIver

From their new home in the opposition benches, the message from PC interim leader Ric McIver against banning corporate donations was incredibly tone deaf. Mr. McIver’s opposition to the ban is not ideological (the Wildrose Party supports the ban) but purely practical. The PC Party relies heavily upon corporate donors for the large majority of its donations, unlike the NDP and Wildrose parties which have cultivated a large individual donor base.

A report released by the Parkland Institute last week showed that the PC Party received more than $630,000 from corporate donors during the first three-months of 2015, compared to $151,000 in individual donations of $251 or over.

During the recent election, PC leader Jim Prentice faced harsh criticism for refusing to raise corporate tax in the provincial budget while personal income taxes and many fees were increased. Culminating with a disastrous press conference held by four CEOs supporting the PCs, the corporate taxes issue led many Albertans to believe that the PCs were protecting their major donors rather than the best interests of the province.

Canadian Energy Strategy

Shannon Phillips
Shannon Phillips

Perhaps signalling that Alberta will once again seek an important role on the national stage, the throne speech alluded to plans to  “forge a much stronger partnership with our fellow provinces and with the federal government, in order to build a Canadian Energy Strategy.”

A new approach to energy cooperation on the national stage, which could include increased support for the proposed TransCanada Energy East Pipeline, along with a new climate change strategy promised by Environment Minister Shannon Phillips, could lead to Alberta being a more involved player at the July 15-17, 2015 Council of the Federation meeting in St. John’s, Newfoundland.

Reaching out to opposition parties, setting a new tone

Marking a clear break from the previous PC government, Ms. Notley reached out to the opposition parties in the first day of the new legislative session, announcing the formation of two new multi-party committees.

Lesser Slave Lake NDP MLA Danielle Larivee, a Registered Nurse, and Calgary-Mountain View Liberal MLA David Swann, a physician, will co-chair a mental health review committee. And Ms. Notley announced that she and Wildrose leader Brian Jean will cooperate in the creation of a special legislative committee composed of nine government MLAs and eight opposition MLAs that will “review Alberta’s elections, whisteblower and conflict of interest legislation” (they should look at banning corporate and union donations in municipal elections as well).

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Alberta Politics

List: What’s happened since Alberta’s historic election and what lies ahead

NDP leader Rachel Notley speaks to a crowd of more than 2,000 Albertans at a May 4 election rally in Edmonton.
NDP leader Rachel Notley rallies a crowd of more than 2,000 Albertans at a May 3, 2015 election rally in Edmonton.

It has been an incredible 15 days since Alberta’s historic 2015 election. Here is a quick look back at what has happened in the past two weeks and what will happen in the months ahead.

Brian Jean Wildrose
Brian Jean

May 5: Rachel Notley‘s New Democratic Party won Alberta’s provincial election and formed a majority government with 53 MLAs. The Wildrose Party formed Official Opposition with 21 MLAs and the Progressive Conservative Party, which had formed government since 1971, was reduced to 10 MLAs. Alberta Party leader Greg Clark was elected in Calgary-Elbow and Liberal David Swann is re-elected in Calgary-Mountain View. One race, in Calgary-Glenmore, was tied. Premier Jim Prentice announced his resignation as PC Party leader and as MLA for Calgary-Foothills.

May 6: In her first press conference since the election, Premier-designate Notley reassures business and energy industry leaders of her intentions to work collaboratively with them as Premier of Alberta.

Greg Clark Alberta Party MLA Calgary ElbowGreg Clark Alberta Party MLA Calgary Elbow
Greg Clark

May 7: Ms. Notley meets with Lieutenant Governor Donald Ethell and asks for permission to form a government. The process of transitioning a new party into government in Alberta begins for the first time since 1971.

May 8: Mr. Clark announced he would submit a series of requests under Alberta’s Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act to ensure sensitive documents are not destroyed before the transition to a new government. Mr. Jean also calls on the outgoing government to stop all shredding of documents during the transition. The University of Alberta Board of Governors voted to keep Doug Goss as chairman in spite of his participation in a disasterous press conference in the last week of the election where he and three other CEOs urged Edmontonians to vote PC and described the NDP as amateurs.

Ric McIver
Ric McIver

May 9: The NDP Government caucus meets for the first time at Government House in Edmonton. “Albertans voted for change and they asked our team of new MLAs to do important work, the work of restoring honesty and integrity and trust to government,” Ms. Notley told reporters at a morning press conference.

May 11: Wildrose leader Brian Jean announced six senior Official Opposition critic roles and caucus officers. Calgary-Hays MLA Ric McIver is appointed interim leader of the PC opposition caucus.

May 12: Ms. Notley met with outgoing Premier Prentice and asked that the outgoing Government of Alberta extend the school budget deadline to the end of June. She also announced she had hired Brian Topp as her Chief of Staff and Adrienne King as Deputy Chief of Staff. Richard Dicerni remains Deputy Minister for Executive Council.

Brian Topp Alberta Premier Chief of Staff
Brian Topp

May 13: The Information and Privacy Commissioner and the Public Interest Commissioner opened a joint investigation into the alleged improper destruction of records by the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Resource Development. Ms. Notley ordered all government departments to halt document destruction.

May 14: At the PC Party Calgary leader’s dinner, Mr. Prentice made his first public statement since the party’s electoral defeat and his surprise resignation on election night.

May 15: A recount of a tied election in Calgary-Glenmore resulted in a 6-vote win for NDP candidate Anam Kazim over PC candidate Linda Johnson. Ms. Johnson has until May 25 to request a judicial recount. The PC Party laid off 11 of its staff and announces plans to close its offices in Calgary and Edmonton.

Sarah Hoffman NDP MLA Edmonton-Glenora
Sarah Hoffman

May 16: Speaking to a meeting of the Alberta Teachers’ Association, Edmonton-Glenora NDP MLA-elect Sarah Hoffman reached out to educators by telling them that the new government will be a better partner.

May 20: Ms. Notley held a press conference where she announces the dates of the cabinet swearing-in ceremony, the size of the new cabinet and timelines for a new provincial budget. Prime Minister Stephen Harper announces that Calgary businessperson Lois Mitchell will replace Mr. Ethell as Lieutenant Governor of Alberta.

May 24: Ms. Notley and 11 NDP cabinet ministers will be sworn-in to office at 2:00 p.m. on the north steps of the Alberta Legislature Building.

David Swann Liberal MLA Calgary-Mountain View
David Swann

May 27 and 28: The new NDP cabinet will hold its first meetings in Calgary.

May 30: The Alberta Liberal Party annual general meeting will be held at the Chateau Nova Hotel in Edmonton.

June 1: Candidates elected on May 5 will officially be sworn-in as MLAs.

June 11: MLAs will meet to elect a new Speaker of the Legislative Assembly. Current Speaker Gene Zwozdesky continues this role until a new Speaker is chosen.

June 15: A Speech from the Throne will be delivered. The NDP Government will ask the Legislature to approve an Interim Supply Bill to finance the operations of government until the fall.

July 15-17: Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Paul Davis will host Canada’s Premiers and their delegations for the 2015 Council of the Federation. The meeting will take place in St. John’s.

Fall 2015: A new provincial budget will be tabled in the Legislative Assembly.

October 19: The scheduled date of Canada’s 42nd federal election.

November 5: The latest date according to the PC Party constitution at which a new leader must be selected.

November 13: The Wildrose Party will hold its annual general meeting at the Sheraton Cavalier Calgary Hotel in Calgary.

November 15: The six month deadline for a by-election to be held in Calgary-Foothills (assuming that Mr. Prentice’s resignation as MLA was accepted when the official count was released on May 15, 2015).

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Alberta Politics

Politicians with embarrassing Facebook photos? Get used to it.

Since Alberta’s provincial election on May 5, Calgary-Bow MLA-elect Deborah Drever has been the target of much criticism over some photos posted on Facebook from before she was a candidate. Working towards a Bachelor of Arts degree in Sociology at Mount Royal University, it is unlikely Ms. Drever, 26, believed she would actually be elected as the NDP candidate in the long-time PC Party-held constituency.

While many conservatives on social media, many of them anonymous, have aimed their frustration with the NDP’s historic win at Ms. Drever, it is important for level-headed Albertans to keep these photos in perspective. In the context of the recent election and the government that was just tossed out of office, Calgary Herald columnist Don Braid might have said it best in one tweet last week:

In the years ahead, it will be hard to expect Canadians younger than 35 not to have had any sort of embarrassing photo posted on social media. It is just what happens when you are in high school or university: sometimes you do dumb things and they end up on the internet.

For the incoming generation of young politicians, “do you have any embarrassing photos on Facebook?” could be the new “have you ever smoked marijuana?” that the senior generations will ask. The future candidates will try to deny it, but they will all know that somewhere, on someones Facebook page, Instagram account or iPhone, there are embarrassing photos from that halloween kegger or university pub crawl that could one day become public.

It does not mean we are an irresponsible generation, it is the burden we bear for living in such a technologically connected society.

Had mobile phones and social networks been around in 1980, I am sure there would be many embarrassing photos of young Brian Jean, Jim Prentice, Ric McIver, Rachel Notley and Stephen Harper floating around for all the internet to see. But due to the limitations of film photography in the 1970s and 1980s, these photos are not easily accessible through a Google Image search.

But that does not mean some photos have not made it online. Would anyone argue that Peter Mackay is unfit to be Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada because he was photographed guzzling from a beer bong when he was 20-years old?

Ms. Drever probably should have removed these photos before she ran as an election candidate, a conclusion she would have made soon after the photos were discovered and the personal attacks on her began. It was a hard lesson to learn but an important one for the group of energetic young NDP MLAs to be aware of. Conservatives still bitter from their first electoral defeat in 44 years will be searching for any opportunity to undermine the new government’s credibility.

Now as the elected MLA for Calgary-Bow, Ms. Drever has an opportunity to disappoint her critics and prove to her constituents, including the 5,680 who voted for her, that she will work hard and be a responsible and fair voice for in the Legislative Assembly.

As for the rest of us, we should stop getting excited about politicians with embarrassing Facebook photos, because I can guarantee that it will be lot more common in the years to come.

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Alberta Politics

Alberta’s Tories Navigate through unfamiliar waters

As most Albertans head to work tomorrow morning, the Tory-connected public relations firm Navigator will host an invite-only session for clients in downtown Edmonton titled “Alberta’s New Government: What to Expect.” The session is being hosted by former Ottawa television host Don Newman and will feature main speaker Kathleen Monk (Ottawa NDP insider and former executive director of the Broadbent Institute) and Tory-connected panelists Jason Hatcher (managing principal at Navigator) and Jaime Watt (Toronto-based Navigator executive chairman). In a normal election year, it would not be surprising that this company would organize a session like this for their clients, but this has not been a normal election year.

Ric McIver
Ric McIver

One of Navigator’s managing principals, Randy Dawson, was the campaign manager for the Progressive Conservative Party‘s disastrous losing re-election campaign (despite the company’s slogan “When you can’t afford to lose”). After the firm became part of a controversy that damaged the Tories during the election campaign and one of its high profile employees led the campaign that ended the PC Party’s uninterrupted 44-year reign, it is surprising that Navigator is raising its flag in Alberta so soon after election day.

On Thursday night, interim PC Party leader Ric McIver will take the stage in what is sure to be a sombre event. Before Rachel Notley‘s NDP were swept to office on May 5, Premier Jim Prentice had been scheduled to speak at his party’s Calgary leader’s dinner on May 14. At the time tickets were so sought after that they sold out. Everyone in corporate Calgary wanted to be there to congratulate Mr. Prentice on his big win but voters had different plans. And while the fundraising dinner remains sold out, it is expected that a smaller and less powerful crowd will be in attendance.

Jonathan Denis MLA Calgary Acadia
Jonathan Denis

It has been astonishing to watch the breakneck speed in which some longtime PC supporters have abandoned any belief their party can someday return to power. Former justice minister Jonathan Denis called for a merger of the Wildrose and PC Party only days after his personal defeat in Calgary-Acadia.

Former MLA Greg Stevens, who served in Peter Lougheed’s cabinets, wrote in the Calgary Herald that the PC Party would “will cough and spit and be no more” after its election loss. And former Premier Ed Stelmach said shifting too far to the political right was a mistake made by the PC Party.

Wildrose leader Brian Jean responded to Mr. Denis by saying he was not interested in merging his party with the recently defeated Tories.

Ed Stelmach
Ed Stelmach

In December 2014, the Wildrose Party was moribund after former leader Danielle Smith led most of the party’s MLAs into the PC Caucus. Today, none of the floor crossers are MLAs and Mr. Jean’s Wildrose Party has formed Official Opposition with 21 MLAs (4 more than Ms. Smith led the party to win in 2012).

In response to Ms. Smith’s attempts to restore her public image, former Wildrose Communications Director Brock Harrison wrote an op-ed in the National Post aimed at debunking her “revisionist history.”

Notley Senior Staff
Brian Topp Alberta Premier Chief of Staff
Brian Topp

Ms. Notley announced three senior roles in the Premier’s Office. Brian Topp will be Chief of Staff and Adrienne King will be Deputy Chief of Staff. Mr. Topp is the former federal NDP leadership candidate and deputy Chief of Staff to Saskatchewan Premier Roy Romanow and Ms. King is the former Chief of Staff at the Alberta’s NDP Caucus. Richard Dicerni will continue as Deputy Minister for Executive Council. Mr. Dicerni was appointed to the role by Mr. Prentice in September 2014.

Official Opposition Critics
Drew Barnes Wildrose MLA Cypress Medicine Hat
Drew Barnes

The Wildrose Official Opposition unveiled its front bench critics for the upcoming Legislative session: Cypress-Medicine Hat MLA Drew Barnes as Shadow Minister for Health, Drumheller-Stettler MLA Rick Strankman as Shadow Minister for Agriculture, Livingstone-Macleod MLA Pat Stier as Shadow Minister for Municipal Affairs, Strathmore-Brooks MLA Derek Fildebrandt as Shadow Minister for Finance & Treasury Board, Drayton Valley-Devon MLA Mark Smith as Shadow Minister for Education, Chestermere-Rockyview MLA Leela Aheer as Shadow Minister for Energy.

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Alberta Politics

It’s still hard to believe the NDP won Alberta’s election

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley NDP

Two days later it is still hard to believe. The New Democratic Party won an election in Alberta? The NDP won a majority government in Alberta? Rachel Notley is the next Premier of Alberta? Get used to it, because Albertans have spoken.

Rachel Notley Alberta NDP leader
Rachel Notley

A change in government is a good thing for Alberta. It was desperately needed.

As I wrote on election night, it would be a mistake to believe this election signals Albertans have shifted to the political left.This election was never about ideology and Albertans remain largely politically moderate. This defining narrative of this campaign was trust and accountability, and on this issue Albertans turned away from Jim Prentice‘s  Progressive Conservatives and embraced Ms. Notley’s moderate and progressive Lougheed-esq platform. The “time for a change” narrative was too strong for the PCs to survive.

But it could still be a while before it stops sounding totally strange. I have never seen another party form government in Alberta until this week. The PCs were first elected 12 years before I was born. My parents were in junior high school when Peter Lougheed became Premier. And this week that dynasty, which governed Alberta for forty-four straight years, collapsed in a spectacular fashion.

Alberta Premier Peter Lougheed
Peter Lougheed

Only one week ago, days before their defeat, the Tories revved up their impressive fundraising machine with a $500 per plate dinner in downtown Edmonton that raised around $800,000 in one night. A similar fundraising dinner, which I am told was sold out, is scheduled to be held on May 14 in Calgary.

But now electorally demolished, on their way out of government and without a leader following Mr. Prentice’s election night resignation, will the PC Party go on? Who will show up for the pricy dinner now that there will be no Premier at the podium or cabinet ministers to dine and wine with? What is the future of the PC Party, now that it is no longer in government?

Albertans wanted a change and they sent a message loud and clear.

On Tuesday night, 74 new MLAs were elected. Forty-nine of those new MLAs will sit in the government benches and 20 will be in opposition, including 18 in the resurgent conservative Wildrose Official Opposition led by Brian Jean. The average age of Alberta’s MLAs also tumbled from 52 years old to 36 40 years old after this election and almost half of the NDP caucus will be made up of women MLAs.

Jim Prentice Premier Alberta
Jim Prentice

The government and opposition now hold differing political views, a difference from the past legislature which could help create an atmosphere of real debate in the Legislative Assembly. This marks a seismic change in a Alberta’s political environment that has been dominated by one party for four decades.

Any new government can be expected to make lots of rookie mistakes, but the incoming Premier has spent the days following the election to set a pragmatic and moderate tone for the new government.

Ms. Notley made a point of using her first days after the election to set a positive tone with Alberta’s energy industry leaders, many who are also likely seeing their first change in government in Alberta. Ms. Notley has repeatedly made clear what Albertans already know: that energy industry is key to our economy. And the NDP Government’s proposed royalty review and modest increase to corporate taxes will ensure the role of Energy Minister remains very important in the new cabinet.

Energy Minister could be a role so important that Ms. Notley takes it on the responsibility herself, as Mr. Prentice took on the extra roles of Aboriginal Relations and Intergovernmental Affairs when he became Premier in September 2014.

While some fear-mongering conservatives, still bitter from their first electoral loss in 44 years, are predicting that the entire energy industry will pack up and leave because Albertans voted in a new government, there is an opportunity for corporate leaders to create a respectful working relationship with the new Alberta Government. And for Albertans, it could be refreshing change to have a government that acts like a partner with the energy industry rather than a wholly owned subsidiary of the energy industry. Albertans want to ensure they are getting their fair share of the wealth collected from their natural resources and industry, quite fairly, wants to know they will be treated fairly by the new government.

As Ms. Notley’s NDP Caucus transitions into their new role as government, the first time this has happened in 44 years, there are still a lot of unknowns. When will a new budget be tabled? When will the Legislative Assembly sit next? Will there be any major changes in the senior ranks of the public service? Will Alberta’s position on major national issues drastically change? Who will be appointed to cabinet?

We can expect incumbent NDP MLAs Brian Mason, David Eggen, and Deron Bilous to be at the cabinet table. Other possible cabinet appointments could include Edmonton-Glenora MLA Sarah Hoffman (former Edmonton Public School Board chair), Calgary-Fort MLA Joe Ceci (former Calgary Alderman), Lethbridge-West MLA Shannon Phillips (policy analyst), Medicine Hat MLA Bob Wanner (former Public Services Commissioner for Medicine Hat), Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Bob Turner (Doctor), St. Albert MLA Marie Renaud (non-profit executive director), and Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley MLA Margaret Mccuaig-Boyd (former Vice-President of Grande Prairie College), Calgary-Buffalo MLA Kathleen Ganley (labour lawyer), Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater MLA Colin Piquette (university instructor) and Calgary-Varsity MLA Stephanie McLean (criminal defence lawyer). And while their critics have focused on the perceived inexperience of new MLAs, we should not be surprised to see some of these unlikely politicians excel in their new roles.

There will be a lot of unknowns in Alberta politics in the coming months and years. This is not a bad thing. In most provinces it is completely normal. We live in a democracy and can expect, from time to time, that voters will decide it is someone else’s turn to govern.

Change is good. And while it still might be a while before it is easy to believe, Albertans sent a clear message on May 5 that they wanted a change in Edmonton, and they got it.

On Wednesday morning I joined Ryan Jespersen and Steven Dollansky on 630 CHED to talk about this week’s historic NDP election win in Alberta, the Wildrose resurgence and the collapse of the 43-year old PC dynasty.

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12 races I’m watching on Election Night in Alberta

Some candidates to watch on Election Night: Derek Fildebrandt, Sarah Hoffman, Chris Labossiere, Shannon Phillips and Joe Ceci.
Some candidates to watch on Election Night: Derek Fildebrandt, Sarah Hoffman, Chris Labossiere, Shannon Phillips and Joe Ceci.

With all the polls showing the 43-year long governing Progressive Conservatives trailing the NDP and Wildrose across the province, there could be a race to watch in every constituency in Alberta when the provincial election polls close at 8:00 p.m. tonight.

Here are 12 races that I will be paying particular attention to on Election night:

Alberta Election Races to Watch 2015
12 races to watch in Alberta’s 2015 election (click to enlarge).

Calgary-Acadia: This south Calgary constituency has reliably voted PC since 1971, but recent controversy surrounding PC candidate Jonathan Denis, who was ordered to resign from his job as Justice Minister and Attorney General in the middle of the election campaign, could help boost support for NDP candidate Brandy Payne and Wildrose candidate Linda Carlson.

Calgary-Buffalo: Voters in this downtown Calgary constituency have elected Liberals in six of the last eight elections. Popular MLA Kent Hehr is running for federal office so the Liberals have nominated lawyer David Khan as his successor. Mr. Khan faces arts advocate Terry Rock running for the PCs and lawyer Kathleen Ganley running for the NDP.

Calgary-Elbow: A rematch between Alberta Party leader Greg Clark and PC candidate Gordon Dirks. Mr. Dirks narrowly defeated Mr. Clark in an October 2014 by-election and with recent cuts to education funds, a nasty debate over Gay-Straight Alliances, and neighbourhoods still recovering from the 2013 floods,  Mr. Dirks could be in trouble.

Calgary-Fort: Popular five-term PC MLA Wayne Cao is retiring from politics, leaving the PCs with rookie candidate Andy Nguyen. The NDP are have put a lot of hope into Alderman Joe Ceci, the party’s most high-profile Calgary candidate in decades. The Wildrose have nominated Jeevan Mangat, who came within 200 votes of defeating Mr. Cao in the 2012 election.

Calgary-Varsity: NDP candidate and lawyer Stephanie McLean faces off against PC stalwart and lawyer Susan Billington. Ms. Billington’s involvement in the Kananaskis Improvement District, which voted to provide millions of dollars to the privately-operated Kananaskis Golf Course, became an issue early in the campaign. This constituency elected Liberal MLA Harry Chase in the 2004 and 2008 elections.

Edmonton-Centre: Popular Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman has represented this constituency since 1997 and is one of the most effective voices in the Assembly. But her choice to split with her party and accept the nominations from the Alberta Party and Greens may confuse voters. The rising NDP tide in Edmonton, represented by the charismatic David Shepherd in Edmonton-Centre, may impact her chances of re-election.

Edmonton-Glenora: Former Edmonton Public School Board chairperson and NDP star candidate Sarah Hoffman is facing two-term PC MLA Heather Klimchuk. Glenora has never elected an NDP MLA, but the party saw its support rise in 2004 and 2012, giving Ms. Hoffman a strong base of support to build on.

Edmonton-Rutherford: Businessman and Edmonton enthusiast Chris Labossiere faces university instructor Richard Feehan in this southwest Edmonton constituency. Voters have swung between the Liberals and PCs in this area since the 1980s and without a strong Liberal campaign in this election, swinging to the NDP might not be a far stretch. Both the PCs and NDP are running strong campaigns in Rutherford, so this will be a constituency to watch.

Edmonton-Whitemud: Voters in Whitemud have elected PC MLAs since 1997 and chose former Mayor Stephen Mandel in an October 2014 by-election. The PCs typically win by large margins in this constituency but the NDP candidate Dr. Bob Turner earned record support in by-election. If Mr. Mandel cannot win in Whitemud, it is likely the PCs will not win anywhere else in Edmonton.

Fort-McMurray-Conklin: Wildrose leader Brian Jean is trying to unseat first-term PC MLA Don Scott. Mr. Jean’s name recognition as party leader and the former Conservative MP for the area could help him overcome Mr. Scott, who only narrowly won the 2012 election. Also a factor in this race is the NDP, which is represented by NDP candidate and local teacher Ariana Mancini.

Lethbridge-West: In 2012, Shannon Phillips surprised many political watchers when she placed 1,115 votes behind PC MLA Greg Weadick in a three-way race with the Wildrose. This time, it is a rematch between the two, with the Wildrose playing the wildcard.

Strathmore-Brooks: He is a familiar face in the media and former Taxpayers’ Federation spokesperson Derek Fildebrandt hopes to return to Edmonton as an MLA. Mr. Fildebrandt faces County of Newell Reeve Molly Douglass who is running for the PC Party in this southern Alberta rural riding. Former MLA Jason Hale, who was elected as a Wildrose MLA in 2012 but crossed the floor to the PCs in 2014, is not seeking re-election.

 

Voting stations are open in provincial constituencies across Alberta until 8:00 p.m. tonight. If you do know where to vote, visit the Elections Alberta website. If you do not know who the candidates in your constituency are, check out my list of candidates.

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An Orange Chinook howls in Alberta. Is the PC dynasty at its end?

NDP leader Rachel Notley speaks to a crowd of more than 2,000 Albertans at a May 4 election rally in Edmonton.
NDP leader Rachel Notley rallies a crowd of more than 2,000 Albertans at a May 3, 2015 election rally in Edmonton.

How badly do the Progressive Conservatives need to mess up for Albertans to want to elect an NDP government? It may sound like a silly question in the context of Alberta politics, but we might find an answer on May 5.

Judging by the more than 1,500 Albertans who showed up at an NDP rally in Edmonton yesterday, the momentum behind Rachel Notley‘s NDP is real.

Jim Prentice Alberta Premier
Jim Prentice

“I think the PC Party needs a break from government and Albertans need a break from the PC Party,” Ms. Notley told the massive crowd at the Ramada Hotel on Kingsway Avenue. “You don’t have to repeat history on Tuesday, you can make history,” she said.

Legions of Albertans tired of Jim Prentice‘s long-governing PC Party have rallied around the NDP in this election. With the confident Ms. Notley at its helm and a moderate Lougheed-like platform, the NDP campaign in this election has been near flawless. With exception of a few bumps, including a fiscal miscalculation that was quickly fixed and one candidate’s past praise of former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the NDP machine has run smoothly.

In contrast, the PC campaign has appeared distant, robotic and fraught with controversy. The latest controversy has forced Mr. Prentice to call for a review of MLA expenses. Metro Edmonton uncovered the expenses last week, which included one Edmonton PC MLA who expensed $12,500 for a Christmas Party.

‘The PCs sound, in fact, like Social Credit Premier Harry Strom, the one they beat in 1971,’ wrote Calgary Herald columnist Don Braid. Albertans young enough to have voted in the last election are at least 65 years old, meaning that most voters will not remember the last time we had a change in government in Alberta, 43 years ago.

Mr. Prentice wanted this election to be about his spring budget, but Albertans appear to have decided this election is about trust and acceptability, two areas where the PCs have a poor track record.

Brian Jean Wildrose
Brian Jean

Standing in the crowd at the NDP rally, I spoke with two senior citizens who were very excited to experience their first political rally. It is also the first election they will vote NDP. They voted for the PCs in the last election and in many elections before that, they told me.

If the Orange Chinook is real, what will the results look like on election night?

Most media coverage since the leaders’ debate has focused on the NDP and PC parties, but outside of the major urban centres, Brian Jean‘s conservative Wildrose Party is expected to be a big factor. You only need to take a quick drive outside Edmonton City Limits and you will immediately notice the campaign signs change from NDP orange to Wildrose green.

The PCs have placed third behind the NDP and Wildrose parties in most recent polls, but it would be foolish to predict a that party’s defeat even with only on day left in the election campaign. After 43-years in government, the PC Party Establishment is pulling out all the stops to ensure it wins re-election, including its recent fear campaign against the NDP.

It is also important to remember that the constant stream of polls showing the NDP leading the Wildrose and PC parties might not necessarily be reflected in the number of MLAs elected in our first past the post system (as we saw in the 2012 election when the Wildrose Party earned 34% of the province-wide vote and only 19% of the seats in the Assembly).

If a party’s support is too concentrated in one area of the province, it may win seats but not enough to form a majority government. And if a party’s support is too thinly spread across the province, it could be shut out.

On May 5 we will find out if Albertans are ready to take a break from the PC Party and embrace an Orange Chinook. It could be Alberta’s most interesting election night in 43 years.

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Alberta Politics

Hope and Fear: 2 days until Alberta’s election

The infamous Penthouse Press Conference on May 1, 2015.
The infamous Penthouse Press Conference on May 1, 2015.

With only two full days left before the May 5 provincial election, the 43-year long governing Progressive Conservatives and its supporters are waging a thick fear campaign against its electoral challengers.

On May 1, five corporate CEOs and PC Party donors held a morning press conference in a penthouse boardroom to warn Albertans against out the PCs [see photo above].

Not surprisingly, the CEOs oppose NDP plans to raise corporate taxes from 10% to 12% and review natural resource royalty rates. The press conference started smoothly, but quickly veered off course when one CEO questioned why he must pay more and another appeared to claim that corporate donations to children’s hospitals and charities would halt if the corporate tax rate was increased.

The corporate tax rate in Alberta dropped from 15.5% in 2001 to 10% in 2006. The corporate tax rates in Saskatchewan and Manitoba are 12%. Alberta would still have a significant advantage over our prairie neighbours, as we have vast oil and gas deposits, low personal income tax, and no provincial sales tax.

[Note: the NDP and Wildrose Party support banning corporate and union donations. Nearly 80% of PC Party donations were made by corporations]

The fear campaign did not deter hundreds of Albertans from showing up at large rallies in support of the NDP and Wildrose parties this weekend. The NDP will hold another large rally in Edmonton on May 3.

A rally held in the Calgary-Varisty constituency for NDP leader Rachel Notley attracted hundreds of Calgarians on May 2, 2015.
A rally held in the Calgary-Varisty constituency for NDP leader Rachel Notley attracted hundreds of Calgarians on May 2, 2015. (Photo via @AlbertaNDP on Twitter)

With Election Day fast approaching, the parties are releasing their last major policy statements of the campaign.

NDP leader Rachel Notley announced plans to reinvest in Family and Community Support Services, an important community program that supports after school programs, child development programs, and counselling services. According to the NDP press release, FCSS funding has remained stagnant for the past four years.

A Wildrose Party rally in Calgary on May 1, 2015 drew hundreds of supporters.
A Wildrose Party rally in Calgary on May 1, 2015 drew hundreds of supporters (photo via @epamenzies on Twitter)

Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean announced that if his party forms government on May 5, he would introduce an Accountability Act as the new government’s first bill in the Legislative Assembly. The proposed act would ban corporate and union donations, ban MLAs elected under one party from crossing to another Caucus without a by-election, legislate true fixed dates for provincial elections and implement MLA recall legislation and End sole-sourced contracting.

Alberta Party leader Greg Clark with supporters in Calgary-Elbow.
Alberta Party leader Greg Clark with supporters in Calgary-Elbow. (Photo via @GregClark4AB on Twitter)

Alberta Party leader Greg Clark announced his party’s infrastructure plan, which would focus on building a new Calgary Cancer Centre at the Foothills, upgrading Edmonton’s aging Misericordia Hospital, and improve schools and public transit. And Liberal leader David Swann announced a $75.5 million investment in mental health and addictions.

Calgary-Klein Green Party candidate Noel Keough is throwing his support behind NDP candidate Craig Coolahan and he is asking Green voters to do the same. Also throwing her support to Ms. Notley’s NDP is Angie Klein, daughter of former PC Premier Ralph Klein.

The Progressive Conservative Party has not released any new policy statements since Jim Prentice reversed his party’s decision to cut the Charitable Donation Tax Credit on April 21, 2015.

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Alberta Politics

Are Albertans afraid of changing their government?

Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley met with Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi on April 30, 2015.

Four days before Election Day, Progressive Conservative Party leader Jim Prentice stood on a stage in front of hall of supporters who paid $500 per plate to attend the evening fundraiser in downtown Edmonton. Mr. Prentice warned his audience of the dire consequences of voting for Rachel Notley’s NDP, which has been his key message since the televised leaders’ debate.

Five polls released on April 29, 2015 show the NDP leading the PC and Wildrose parties across Alberta, and with a massive lead in Edmonton. Most political watchers expected the Mr. Prentice to use the massive PC campaign war-chest to launch a massive negative advertising campaign against the NDP, but it has not materialized.

The PC Party has released some radio ads and its supporters in corporate Calgary, like oil company CEO Brian Ferguson, have spoken out against the NDP proposal to review natural resource royalties. But aside from Mr. Ferguson (and the supporters who paid $500 to hear Mr. Prentice speak last night), I am not sure most voters believe the government should not regularly review royalties to ensure Albertans are getting the best value for their resources.

Brian Jean Wildrose
Brian Jean

[The Globe & Mail reported on September 5, 2014 that Mr. Ferguson was among 39 donors who gave Mr. Prentice’s leadership campaign between $10,001 and $30,000]

The attacks do not seem to have weakened Ms. Notley, who is an articulate and likeable politician. Her party has presented a moderate platform focused on reinvesting in health care and education, raising corporate tax rates from 10% to 12%, and carefully reviewing royalties collected for the province’s natural resources.

As Mr. Prentice tries to scare conservatives into re-electing his party to a 13th term in government, one poll conducted by ThinkHQ shows most Albertans surveyed said they were more afraid of a re-elected PC government than a Wildrose or NDP government.

Alison Redford Alberta Election 2012 Conservative leader
Alison Redford

“…68% of those interviewed said they would be very or somewhat concerned about Alberta’s future if the PCs were re-elected as government. Meanwhile, 58% would have concerns about a Wildrose government, and only 47% say they would have reservations if the NDP win the election.”

In the 2012 election, conservative voters in rural Alberta abandoned the PCs in favour of the opposition Wildrose Party. The PCs were re-elected with the support of moderate voters, many former Liberal voters, who were both scared of the Wildrose and excited by Alison Redford’s promise of a progressive government.

Fast forward through three years of scandals, controversy and broken promises, and now many of the same voters who saved Ms. Redford’s PC Party in 2012 are now leaning toward voting for Ms. Notley’s NDP.

With trust and accountability having become the defining issues of the election campaign, Mr. Prentice has not presented a compelling reason for Albertans to trust that the PC Party will be any different in the next three years (especially after he called the election one year earlier than the PC Government’s fixed election date).

There is also a feeling among many Albertans that the PCs have mismanaged our province’s vast resource wealth, especially following the drop in oil prices earlier this year.

Despite years of economic prosperity, the PCs have run deficit budgets since 2008 and do not appear to have planned for any economic downturns (even though the price of oil has always been cyclical in nature).

Unlike previous elections that were dominated by the PCs, there is an increasing permissive environment among Alberta voters that it is okay not to support the governing party in this election.

Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi has predicted the election of a PC minority government but said that Albertans should not be afraid of voting for the other parties. Mr. Nenshi has met with all five main party leaders and said any of them would do a “pretty decent job” for Calgary.

“We’re a place of entrepreneurs. We’re a place of risk-takers, yet we don’t take risks in government except in 2010. And I think that one worked out OK for Calgary,” Mr. Nenshi told the Calgary Herald.

In a recent blog post, former Edmonton PC MLA and cabinet minister David King asked “Should Albertans vote for a P.C. candidate, in any constituency, and elect a cog in a machine that is running amuck?”

With NDP support concentrated in urban areas of the province, the PCs also face a major challenge from Brian Jean‘s Wildrose Party in rural Alberta. For the first time in their 44 years in power, the PCs are facing a two front campaign. It is never a safe bet to count the PCs out, but they may be facing their toughest challenge since forming government in 1971.

And with four days left until Election Day, it is still not clear which party will form government on May 5, 2015, but a minority government could be a likely result.

A minority government would breathe new life into Alberta’s Legislative Assembly, which has largely become a rubber-stamp for decisions made behind closed doors by PC cabinet ministers and MLAs. A minority government would also, for the first time in Alberta’s history, force the governing party to meaningfully work with the other parties when passing legislation.

Changing our government is not something Albertans should be afraid of. It is something we should probably do on a regular basis.

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Alberta Politics

Attention Albertans: Get out and vote. Here’s how.

Advance Voting Starts today, so get out and vote! In photo: NDP leader Rachel Notley, PC leader Jim Prentice, Wildrose leader Brian Jean, Liberal leader David Swann and Alberta Party leader Greg Clark.
Advance Voting Starts today, so get out and vote! In photo: NDP leader Rachel Notley, PC leader Jim Prentice, Wildrose leader Brian Jean, Liberal leader David Swann and Alberta Party leader Greg Clark.

Advance polls are now open in provincial constituencies across Alberta. If you are unable to cast a ballot on Alberta’s Election Day on Tuesday, May 5, you can now vote in the Advance Polls from 9:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. on April 29, 30 and May 1, 2. If you are not sure where your voting station is located or what constituency you live in, visit the Elections Alberta website and use their search tool to find out.

Be sure to bring proper identification with you to the voting station. Elections Alberta accepts a wide range of identification in order to vote.

On May 5, voting stations will be open from 9:00 am to 8:00 p.m. Unofficial election results will be posted online after the polls close that night and official results will be released on May 15.

Alberta’s Election Act ensures that all eligible voters are allowed time off work to vote on Election Day. Section 132 of the Election Act allows for three consecutive hours for the purpose of voting.

If you do not know who your candidate is or what the different political parties stand for, I have compiled a list of candidates running in this election with links to websites and social media accounts (which are being updated on an ongoing basis).

According to Elections Alberta, 2,543,127 voters are eligible to participate in this provincial election. The largest constituency is Calgary-South East, with 41,559 eligible voters, and the least populated constituency is Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley, with 14,869 eligible voters.

In 2012, a total of 1,290,223 (54.39%) Albertans participated in the provincial election (voter turnout was 53.9% in Calgary, 54.4% in Edmonton, and 53.3% in the rest of the province). In the same election, 179,820 (13.9%) of Albertans voted in the Advance Polls, a record in our province (6.7% of Albertans voted in Advance Polls in the 2008 election).

Historically, the largest voter turnout was 81.8%, which occurred during the 1935 election.

Voter turnout dipped below 50% in the mid-2000s, with a measly 44.7% of Albertans showing up in 2004 and 40.6% in 2008. Let’s not let that happen again. Be sure to cast your ballots in the Advance Polls or on Election Day.

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Alberta Politics

The Final Countdown: 6 days left until Election Day in Alberta

Edmonton Mayor Don Iveson presents the State of the City address.
Edmonton Mayor Don Iveson presents the State of the City address. (photo by Mastermaq on Flickr)

Staying above the fray of Alberta’s wild 2015 election campaign, Edmonton Mayor Don Iveson argued in his annual State of the City Address that which ever political party forms the provincial government after the May 5 election will have to focus on the capital city.

Stephen Mandel Health Minister Alberta Edmonton Whitemud MLA
Stephen Mandel

“I’m confident that no matter what Albertans decide on May 5, together you, along with our city council will not stand for any provincial government ever forgetting about Edmonton again,” Mr. Iveson told an audience in downtown Edmonton.

At his final State of the City Address two years ago, former Mayor Stephen Mandel publicly lambasted the Progressive Conservatives for their short-sighted funding cuts to Alberta’s colleges and universities.

“We should expect nothing less than passionate, relentless defence of this sector from our provincial representatives, who should know better than to just stand by,” Mr. Mandel said in 2013.

Now as the PC candidate in Edmonton-Whitemud, Mr. Mandel has remained quiet about deep cuts to education funding included in the most recent PC budget.

Michael Janz Edmonton
Michael Janz

The Edmonton Public School Board passed a budget this week that will not include enough provincial funding to compensate for the growth in student population in September, as a result of provincial budget cuts.

“If I have one key message for parents, it would be get out there and engage your candidates. Ask them how are you going to ensure that your party will fund my school? How will you ensure that my student will be successful as well as the other students in their class?,” school board chair Michael Janz told the Edmonton Journal.

As we enter the final six days of the election, the parties will now focus their energy and resources on consolidating their support and working to get their voters out to the advance polls and on election day.

Rachel Notley Alberta NDP leader
Rachel Notley

NDP leader Rachel Notley faced criticism last week after a meeting with the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. The Calgary Herald published a one-sided editorial criticizing the NDP proposal for a phased-in $15 minimum wage (which would ensure Albertans working full time earned at least $600 per week and around $31,200 per year).

While lobby groups like the Canadian Federation of Independent Business oppose the proposed increase, some economists, including Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, suggest an increase to the minimum wage as a means to stimulate the economy [via Ricochet].

The Progressive Conservative Party has not released any new policy positions since Jim Prentice announced last week that he would reopen the budget to reverse changes to the Charitable Donations Tax Credit. Since the leaders’ debate, the PCs have focused their energies on attacking Ms. Notley, who the governing party appears to perceive as their greater challenger on election day.

Danielle Smith Wildrose PC MLA
Danielle Smith

In one of the more bizarre moments of the campaign, former Highwood PC MLA Danielle Smith jumped to Ms. Notley’s defence on Twitter, claiming that the NDP leader’s doubts about the success of the Enbridge corporation’s Northern Gateway Pipeline project are similar to an opinion Mr. Prentice publicly expressed in September 2014.

Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean announced his party’s plans for funding special needs education and a formula for funding municipal growth. And AlbertaPolitics.ca blogger David Climenhaga wrote one of the more comprehensive backgrounds on Mr. Jean and his Fort McMurray “rags to riches” story.

Janet Keeping Alberta Green Party
Janet Keeping

The PCs sent out a press release yesterday attacking Calgary-Bow Wildrose candidate Trevor Grover who was a candidate for the anti-free trade Canada Action Party in the 2006 federal election. If the PCs hope to win the “controversial candidate accusations game,” they should reflect on one of their own nominated candidates who was arrested and plead guilty to prostitution related charges while travelling abroad on government business in December 2013.

The Alberta Party released plans to provide stable funding to post-secondary institutions and deal with municipal issues such as housing and public transit. The Liberals released plans to fix the health care system and accused the NDP of playing board games with finances. And Green Party leader Janet Keeping called for the adoption of an Environmental Bill of Rights [Ms. Keeping is running against Mr. Prentice in Calgary-Foothills].

Advance polls will be open across the province over the next four days from 9:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Voters unable to cast a ballot on the May 5 Election Day can now vote on April 29 and 30, and May 1 and 2.

I made my debut on CBC Radio’s The Current yesterday morning when I joined the National Post’s Jen Gerson, the Edmonton Sun’s Lorne Gunter and host Anna Maria Tremonti for a panel discussion about Alberta’s election campaign.

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Alberta Politics

Notley wins the debate. Now it’s time to manage expectations

PC leader Jim Prentice in a post-leader's debate media scrum at Global Edmonton studios.
PC leader Jim Prentice in a post-leader's debate media scrum at Global Edmonton studios.

Last night’s leader’s debate was the biggest opportunity for Progressive Conservative leader Jim Prentice to knock NDP leader Rachel Notley off-balance. Since the start of the campaign, the PC Party has focused most of its attacks on Wildrose leader Brian Jean, who has proven to be an easier target. But Ms. Notley has been a more difficult target for the PCs.

Rachel Notley NDP Alberta
Rachel Notley

Expectations were high for Ms. Notley, whose party appears to be enjoying a surge in support, and she exceeded those expectations by not falling into Mr. Prentice’s traps. She was calm, concise, and set herself apart from the three other leaders.

Mr. Prentice performed as was expected, despite sounding patronizing at moments, and spent most of the debate on the offensive. His focus on Ms. Notley could signal a shift in focus by the PC campaign against the NDP in Edmonton, Calgary and Lethbridge.

Mr. Jean started the debate slowly, but caught his stride in the second half of the event. He stuck to his notes, sometimes too closely, and overall performed well for someone who only accepted the party leadership less than one month ago. If you missed the debate, the one takeaway from Mr. Jean’s discussion points would be that the Wildrose Party will not raise your taxes. And in case you missed it a first time, he repeated that message numerous times for good measure.

Brian Jean Wildrose
Brian Jean

Earnest Liberal leader David Swann faced low expectations and performed as well as expected. Not a natural politician, Dr. Swann managed to present his party’s platform, but struggled at times to compete with the three other leaders.

With the leader’s debate over, we have now entered the final stretch of Alberta’s 2015 provincial election campaign. With limited polling available, I refuse to jump on the “PCs are going down to defeat” bandwagon. In uncertain times like these, it is important to remember the first unwritten rule of Alberta politics: that the PCs always win, and they always win a big majority [this is me, managing my own expectations].

With the leader’s debate behind them, what do the leaders need to do to manage their own party’s expectations?

Rachel Notley

Rachel Notley is making orange waves in Alberta, but how far will they splash? At the start of the campaign, she said the NDP are aiming to form government in Alberta, but perhaps more realistically Official Opposition is within their grasp. I know many New Democrats who would love for Ms. Notley to lead the party to win at least 17 MLAs, more than the 16 seats the party won in the 1986 and 1989 elections. Any more than the four the party currently holds should be considered a win for the NDP in Alberta.

Jim Prentice

Jim Prentice must lead his party to form a majority government. If the PCs win less than 44 seats in the Assembly, Mr. Prentice will have led his party to its first major electoral humiliation in 44 years. But even within a majority government, there are thresholds for Mr. Prentice’s political survival. What happens to Mr. Prentice if, for example, the PCs elect less MLAs than Alison Redford led them to in 2012 (61)? Or less than Ralph Klein led them to win in 1993 (51)?

Brian Jean

For new Wildrose leader Brian Jean, holding the party’s current number of constituencies – five – while personally winning election in Fort McMurray-Conklin is probably enough to secure his political leadership. Holding on to Official Opposition would be a bonus and electing more than 17 MLAs – the number the party elected under Danielle Smith in 2012 – would be golden.

David Swann

Expectations are low for the Liberals. Re-electing the party’s two incumbent MLAs – David Swann in Calgary-Mountain View and Laurie Blakeman in Edmonton-Centre – would be considered a win for the Liberals in this election.

Greg Clark

Electing leader Greg Clark in Calgary-Elbow, which is the Alberta Party’s best shot in this campaign, would be considered a big win for the party. Mr. Clark placed a strong second to PC candidate Gordon Dirks in the 2014 by-election.

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Alberta Politics

Notley’s NDP inspired by Lougheed, PCs wage war on Wildrose

NDP leader Rachel Notley, surrounded by her party's Calgary candidates in the 2015 election.
NDP leader Rachel Notley was surrounded by her Calgary candidates during a press conference announcing her party's plan for an Infrastructure Sunshine List.

Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley released her party’s election platform and fiscal plan over the weekend, with a focus job-creation, a serious review of royalty rates and a reversal of cuts to health care and education included in the Progressive Conservative government’s recent budget.

Alberta Premier Peter Lougheed
Peter Lougheed

“Instead of listening to Mr. Prentice,” Ms. Notley was quoted as saying by AlbertaPolitics.ca, “I’ll listen to premier Peter Lougheed, who said that it’s time for Alberta to consider a corporate tax increase. Like Mr. Lougheed, I believe what we’ve set out today is a common sense better approach, an approach that builds instead of tearing down.”

Ms. Notley has used the “Lougheed defence” numerous times since Jim Prentice began casting his opponents as “extremists” when he first called the election two weeks ago. The NDP platform feels neither extreme or even typically NDP, at least for the Alberta NDP.

By calling for a moderate 2% increase to corporate taxes and a careful review of the royalties Albertans collect for their resources positions Ms. Notley is positioning herself as a sensible alternative to Mr. Prentice, who has refused to discuss raising royalties or corporate taxes.

Brian Jean Wildrose LeaderWhile Mr. Prentice criticized the NDP platform, his party has yet to turn its serious attacks on Ms. Notley, instead focusing on rural conservative Wildrose opposition led by former Member of Parliament Brian Jean.

Last week, Mr. Prentice unleashed a gang of cabinet ministers on Mr. Jean and the PCs have constantly tried to knock the new leader off-balance. Only selected as leader weeks before the election was called, Mr. Jean’s campaign is not nearly as polished or controlled as that of former leader Danielle Smith in the 2012 election.

For example, responding to criticism from the PC Party that his party’s platform was not properly costed, Mr. Jean said: “[o]ur plan is awesome — it’s the most detailed fiscal plan proposed by any Canadian opposition party during an election.” Although I do not doubt that Mr. Jean and his team are doing the best they can under the circumstances (the party was eviscerated in December when Ms. Smith led most Wildrose MLAs into the PC Caucus), I have serious doubts that it is the “most detailed fiscal plan proposed by any Canadian opposition party during an election.”

Danielle Smith
Danielle Smith

As the PC campaign focuses on Mr. Jean, Mr. Prentice’s star does not appear to shine as brightly as it did only mere months ago. As Lethbridge political scientist Faron Ellis wrote in his Calgary Herald blog, the “Jim Prentice as saviour” narrative has come to a crashing end.

While polls suggest the PCs could form a minority government for the first time ever (and what an interesting scenario that would present), it is hard to imagine the 44-year long PC regime not winning a majority. But it is clear that Mr. Prentice’s gambit to run an election focused on the unpopular provincial budget is being met with cool reviews on the doorsteps.

Michael Janz Edmonton
Michael Janz

Nineteen school boards raised concerns this week that growth of the student population, expected to be 12,000 students in September 2015, is not accounted for in the PC budget. A number of boards, including the Edmonton Catholic School District, have circulated memos outlining numerous program cuts that will be implemented if additional stable funding is not received from the provincial government.

“We have thousands of new youngsters arriving at our schools. They need funding, they need teachers, they need classroom support, they need maintenance funding,” Michael Janz, chair of the Edmonton Public School Board told the Edmonton Sun.

The PCs have also faced criticism from former PC Finance Minister Ted Morton, who has returned to right-wing academia and says PC MLAs did not understand the government would be on the hook for $26 billion when they voted to support a refinery project northeast of Edmonton in 2008.

Distractions from the PC Party’s key messages, including numerous nomination scandals, bribery allegations and police investigations, and the latest resignation of a PC campaign manager and constituency president after alleged “islamophobic comments,” have tarnished the rebranded “Prentice Team” that the PCs hoped would sweep them into another massive majority government.

I bet the current election campaign makes some long-time PC Party supporters yearn for the days of the honest government of Peter Lougheed, which is what Ms. Notley is betting on.

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Alberta Politics

Will 2015 be an lucky or unlucky #13 for Alberta’s PC Party?

Jim Prentice is dwarfed by a giant photo of himself on the PC campaign bus at a stop in Edmonton this week.
Jim Prentice is dwarfed by a giant photo of himself on the PC campaign bus outside an election rally in Edmonton.

CALGARY, ALBERTA

On May 5, 2015, the Progressive Conservatives will face Alberta voters for the thirteenth time since they first formed government in 1971. Since that election 44 years ago, the PCs have dominated over their opposition.

Rachel Notley NDP Alberta
Rachel Notley

It remains difficult to believe that the PC will not form another majority government, but there are indications that the opposition parties could do much better than initially expected. Some political watchers have even suggested that the PCs could form their first minority government.

With the most money and resources at their disposal, the PCs are the only party running a true “province-wide” campaign, but recent polls indicate the two main opposition parties have an opportunity to make gains.

NDP leader Rachel Notley appears to be enjoying an unprecedented bump in support in Alberta. Ms. Notley’s campaign has focused on job creation and health care, contrasting her party’s plan with Jim Prentice‘s party’s 44 year record. Clear signs, and many lawn signs, are indicating that an NDP surge in Edmonton, Lethbridge, and pockets of Calgary, could boost the NDP into Official Opposition status (the NDP previously formed official opposition from 1982 to 1993).

Brian Jean Wildrose Leader
Brian Jean

The current Official Opposition Wildrose Party, now focused on rural Alberta and cities like Red Deer and Grande Prairie, have made opposition to government spending and tax increases a central theme of their campaign. Wildrose leader Brian Jean was chosen little more than one month ago, so it is difficult to believe he alone is the inspiration for the bump in Wildrose support. More likely, there are many voters who still feel comfortable parking their votes with the Wildrose, which is why Mr. Prentice’s party has begun increasing their attacks on their conservative opposition.

Unless the PCs have given up their chances in Edmonton, we should expect PC cabinet ministers to soon start lining up to denounce Ms. Notley as well.

Because of the two opposition party’s different regional support, there might be only two or three constituencies across Alberta where both the NDP and Wildrose in a real competition with the PC candidate.

Joe Ceci Calgary NDP
Joe Ceci

One of those constituencies appears to be Calgary-Fort. Popular five-term PC MLA Wayne Cao has decided to retire from politics, leaving the PCs with rookie candidate Andy Nguyen. The NDP have nominated former Alderman Joe Ceci, the party’s most high-profile Calgary candidate in decades. The Wildrose have nominated Jeevan Mangat, who came within 200 votes of defeating Mr. Cao in the 2012 election.

Four months ago, there appeared to be a growing consensus that Mr. Prentice would lead the PCs to win nearly all the seats in the Legislative Assembly. And while it is never safe to bet against the PCs, with twelve consecutive election wins in their belt, with seventeen days left before election day, it appears that Albertans could send a very strong contingent of opposition MLAs to the legislature.

I have updated the unofficial list of Alberta Election candidates with information released by Elections Alberta after today’s nomination deadline.

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