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Alberta Politics

Alberta’s Separation Referendum — Who’s Going to Stand Up for Canada?

An Alberta politics deep dive on Craft Politics (originally published on the Daveberta Substack)

I recently joined Joseph Lavoie and Andrew Percy on Craft Politics for a deep dive discussion about Alberta separatism and how it’s shaping Alberta politics in 2026.

We had a broad-ranging discussion about Alberta politics, the current separatist movement’s roots in the COVID-19 pandemic and how its supporters became key players inside the United Conservative Party, and who might lead the pro-Canada campaign in a possible separation referendum later this year.

We covered a lot of ground in this discussion but I’m remiss for going through the list players in the separatism debate without mentioning the role of First Nations communities and the Treaties signed between First Nations and the Crown. That’s another important layer to this political debate.

Thank you to Joseph and Andrew for inviting me on their podcast. Be sure to subscribe to Craft Politics on your podcast listening app of choice or watch their interviews on YouTube.


Alberta Belongs in Canada

I will be joining Edmonton Strathcona MP Heather McPherson and other guests on Sunday, February 15 for an online discussion about Alberta’s role in Canada at her Alberta Belongs In Canada event. McPherson is running for the leadership of the New Democratic Party of Canada.

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Alberta Politics

Nenshi’s NDP starts nominating candidates for next Alberta election

Early March candidate meetings scheduled in Calgary and Edmonton ridings

With rumours of an early provincial election circulating since last year, the Alberta NDP looks like it will be the first political party out of the gate to nominate candidates ahead of the next vote.

The NDP website lists candidate nomination meetings scheduled in Edmonton-Glenora on March 3, Calgary-Elbow on March 4, Calgary-Klein on March 5, Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview on March 6 and Calgary-Edgemont on March 7.

All five of these ridings are represented by NDP MLAs who will be seeking re-election if they secure their party’s nominations.

Longtime Daveberta readers will know that I am keenly interested in tracking candidate nominations ahead of provincial and federal elections in Alberta, so I am pleased to share with you that I am continuing this tradition as we approach the next election.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Who’s going to stand up for Canada in Alberta’s separation referendum?

The time to stand up for a Strong Alberta within a Strong Canada is now.

It’s still unclear who will lead the pro-Canada side in a referendum campaign that could happen as early as fall of this year. This is likely because a lot of prominent supporters of federalism in Alberta have had a hard time believing Albertans would vote in favour of separation or that a referendum will even be held in the first place.

Polls show support for Alberta leaving Canada sits at around 28 per cent and drops to 15 per cent when people are faced with the possible consequences, but this is not the time for Albertans who also count themselves as proud Canadians to be complacent.

In another time, the Premier of Alberta would be a strong voice against separatism, but Danielle Smith is now leading a party with an activist base deeply engaged in the separatist movement and she is not interested in upsetting that base of supporters.

Read more on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Coming soon: A referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada

If Albertans aren’t sent to the polls to vote in a provincial election in 2026 they will almost certainly be asked to vote in a province-wide referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada.

Former Progressive Conservative MLA Thomas Lukaszuk was the first to spear-head a successful citizen initiative petition when his Forever Canadian campaign collected more than 456,000 signatures by asking Albertans if they wanted their province to remain in Canada.

The wildly successful Forever Canadian petition campaign is being countered by the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project’s flipped citizen initiative question asking Albertans if they want to leave Canada.

Read more on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Donald Trump is increasingly unstable, authoritarian, and expansionist

Increasing political and economic instability in the United States and President Trump’s threats to expand American military and political control over the western hemisphere could have dramatic effects on Canada. The breaking of the United States’ long-standing close relationship with democratic Europe and Trump’s continued threats to annex the Danish autonomous territory of Greenland and make Canada the 51st State could define world politics in 2026.

Just this week Trump posted a doctored photo on social media of him sitting in front of a map with the US flag superimposed over Canada, Greenland and Venezuela. The use of military force to remove Maduro and Trump’s freewheeling use of trade tariffs against countries who’s leaders he feels have personally insulted him suggests that Albertans and Canadians should take him very seriously.

Trump’s rambling, erratic behaviour and his embrace of authoritarianism is deeply troubling and will have a big impact on Albertans and our fellow Canadians across the country.

Read more on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Lower international price of oil will hit Alberta’s 2026 budget hard

Oil production in our province is at a record high but, as Albertans have learned time and time again, we have absolutely no control over the international price of oil that makes or breaks our local economy.

Forecasts for oil prices are not encouraging for 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has projected that the price of West Texas Intermediate oil could average around $50 to $52 per barrel and, with a glut of oil on the international market, Goldman Sachs expects WTI to average $53 per barrel in 2026.

This is trouble for the Government of Alberta, which relies heavily on revenues from oil and gas royalties to fund the daily operations of public services like heath care and education. The Alberta government’s 2025 budget projected WTI at $68 per barrel but as of the second quarter update in November the average price was $61.50 per barrel. Each $1 change in the price of WTI has an estimated $750-million impact on provincial government revenue.

Read more on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Will Danielle Smith call an early election in Alberta?

After months of speculation, Premier Danielle Smith said during her 2025 year-end interviews that she isn’t planning to call an early election in 2026, but anyone who pays attention to politics knows: circumstances change.

The next provincial general election is scheduled to happen in October 2027 but there continues to be wide speculation that an early election could be called — and there are plenty of reasons to believe why.

Smith’s UCP remains ahead of Naheed Nenshi’s Alberta NDP in the polls and the governing party continues to raise large amounts of donations. And there is little doubt that Smith remains one of the most effective and shrewd political communicators in Alberta and in Canada’s conservative movement.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Naheed Nenshi voted the Best Public Speaker of 2025

Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi thrives in front of a crowd or TV camera, which is why he’s the winner in this year’s Best Public Speaker category.

Nenshi’s energy in front of a crowd propelled him to win a landslide victory in the NDP leadership race last year and is why his party sent him out on round of town hall meetings across the province almost immediately after he was finally elected to the Legislature in June 2025.

Now as the MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona, the former Calgary mayor has a seat in the Legislature and appears to be enjoying the daily cut and thrust of Question Period and legislative debate.

It’s fitting that Nenshi faced Premier Danielle Smith in this category, as both party leaders with their different styles of public speaking — Nenshi being more professorial and Smith as a former talk-show host — have proven they are most comfortable in front of an audience.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Rakhi Pancholi voted the Most Effective Opposition MLA and Best Question Period Performer of 2025

Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Rakhi Pancholi was voted Most Effective Opposition MLA for a second year in a row and this year took the Best Question Period Performer category.

Pancholi has been a rising star in the opposition benches since she was first elected in 2019 and now as deputy leader of the NDP official opposition she has been given an opportunity to shine by demonstrating her political skills and talents.

Pancholi’s diligent prosecutorial-style of asking questions and quick-on-her-feet responses to the government has made her one of the most effective critics in the opposition benches in the Alberta Legislature.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Top 10 Daveberta columns of 2025

It has been a big year in Alberta politics and a big year for Daveberta. Canada had a federal election, there was no shortage of news and (frequently troubling) political maneuvering in Alberta, Calgary and Edmonton elected new mayors, and I marked 20 years since launching my original blog and starting to write about Alberta politics online.

I’m taking it easy this week to enjoy the Christmas break with my family and friends but I did take a few moments to look at some of the top columns I published this year and wanted to share that list with you today.

Using Substack’s metrics, which combine traffic, likes and subscriptions generated, here are the top 10 columns I published in 2025.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

UCP direct democracy tools give Albertans a way to fight back

Albertans unhappy with the government are used to protests outside the Legislature in the deep and dark winter months but direct democracy tools introduced by the UCP a few years ago have given people new avenues to express their discontent.

A citizen initiative launched by former Edmonton-Castle Downs PC MLA Thomas Lukaszuk calling on Alberta to remain in Canada collected more than 456,000 signatures, blowing way past the required threshold of 293,000 signatures. The amazing organizational feat of the Forever Canadian campaign inspired citizen initiatives calling for a referendum question about ending government funding of private schools and banning coal mining in the Eastern Slopes of the Rocky Mountains.

Read more on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Alberta separatism the biggest and most dangerous distraction of the year

The biggest distraction of the year is the fight over Alberta staying in Canada.

Premier Danielle Smith is walking a narrow line between Albertans who want a better deal with Ottawa and those who just want Alberta to outright leave Canada (or join the United States), though she has actively tipped the scales in favour of the separatists in her party.

The UCP has twice amended the Citizen Initiative Act this year. First to lower the number of signatures required to trigger a province-wide referendum and second to block the Chief Elections Officer from referring initiative questions to the courts to determine their constitutionality.

Alberta has long had a fringe separatist movement that has usually lived on the margins of the far-right, but today’s separatists are a deeply intrenched and active force inside Smith’s UCP. They showed their strength at the recent UCP AGM when Smith was booed after trumpeting her government’s memorandum of understanding about pipelines and the electrical grid with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government in Ottawa.

Read more on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Health care chaos the most underreported Alberta politics story of the year

The complete dismantling of Alberta Health Services, which is almost certainly a vendetta for the role the organization played in implementing public health measures meant to stop the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, is one of the most underreported stories of the year.

The province-wide health authority that was created by Premier Ed Stelmach’s Progressive Conservative government in 2008 is being carved into five or six different administrative silos (depending how you count) which will have a real impact on hospitals and health centres from big cities to small rural communities — and health ministers like Adriana LaGrange and Matt Jones haven’t been able to clearly answer the question of how this will make patient care better for Albertans.

Read more on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith’s wild ride. What to make of Alberta politics in 2025?

As 2025 comes to an end, it’s hard to describe the past twelve months in Alberta politics, but Edmonton-Whitemud NDP MLA Rakhi Pancholi summed it up well in the opposition’s year-end press conference by describing it a “wild ride.”

It has been a chaotic 12 months in Alberta politics. Even for someone who pays very close attention to provincial politics, the pace of the past year was so fast and frantic that it has been hard to keep track. The recently ended fall session of the Legislature might have been one of the most chaotic in recent memory.

It’s clear that Premier Danielle Smith’s governing United Conservative Party is using a “flood the zone” strategy but there were many times when it looked like the government was just flying by the seat of its pants and no one was really in control of the political agenda.

And if it’s hard for political watchers to keep track, that means it’s probably almost impossible for normal Albertans to figure out what’s going on — and that’s the point. The strategy keeps the opposition off balance and doesn’t give them time to respond before the next big announcement or political controversy steals the attention of shrinking newsrooms and a fast paced social media eco-system.

Anyone familiar with the chaos of American politics will recognize this strategy because it’s employed almost hourly by President Donald Trump.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack

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Alberta Politics

Janis Irwin, Peter Guthrie, and Rakhi Pancholi big winners in Best of Alberta Politics 2025 Survey

Marlin Schmidt voted MLA with Best Sense of Humour and Brooks Arcand-Paul is the MLA to watch in 2026

After a week of fierce campaigning, all the votes have been counted and the winners of the ninth annual Daveberta Best of Alberta Politics Survey have been chosen.

The annual survey is all about celebrating the best in Alberta politics and the winners were nominated and voted for by politically-savvy Daveberta subscribers.

Congratulations to this year’s winners.

Read all about this the Best of Alberta Politics 2025 Survey on the Daveberta Substack