As the October 16, 2017 municipal elections approach, we are starting to see a number of candidates from the 2015 provincial and federal elections putting their names forward to run for municipal office. At least three former Progressive Conservative MLAs who were defeated in the 2015 election have put their names forward to run:
Linda Johnsonannounced she is running for Calgary City Council in Ward 11. Johnson was the Progressive Conservative MLA for Calgary-Glenmore from 2012 until 2015, when she was defeated by 6 votes by New Democrat Anam Kazim. Current Ward 11 councillor Brian Pincott, who is not seeking re-election this year, is considering a run for the NDP in Calgary-Mountain View in the next provincial election.
Former Fort McMurray-Conklin PC MLA Don Scott is running to become the next mayor of the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo. Scott served on council from 2010 to 2012 and as MLA from 2012 until he was unseated by Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean in 2015. He served as Minister of Innovation and Advanced Education from 2014 until 2015.
Former PC MLA Dave Quest will be a municipal election candidate in the Strathcona County, though it is unclear whether he will run for a council spot or for mayor. He represented Strathcona-Sherwood Park from 2008 until 2015, when he was unseated by New Democrat Estefania Cortes-Vargas. He is married to Ward 8 councillor Fiona Beland-Quest. UPDATE: Beland-Quest has announced that she will not seek re-election. Rex Adam, husband of former Sherwood Park PC MLA Cathy Olesen, announced he will run in Ward 8.
A few other recent provincial and federal candidates are running as well:
Jim Black is running for city council in Medicine Hat. He was an Alberta Party candidate in the 2015 provincial election.
Rod Frank is running for mayor of Strathcona County. He earned 20 percent of the vote as the 2015 federal Liberal candidate in the Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan riding.
A rumoured revolt within Alberta’s Progressive Conservative caucus failed to materialize yesterday as government MLAs gathered at Government House to discuss Premier Alison Redford‘s future.
Cancelling all public appearances and media events for the day, including the premier’s trip to Regina to participate in the New West Partnership meeting, PC MLAs cloistered themselves in the stately mansion for more than four hours.
Despite rumours that up to 20 PC MLAs were considering leaving to sit as Independents if Ms. Redford did not pay back the $45,000 she expensed for a trip to South Africa, only Calgary-Foothills MLA Len Webber announced his departure yesterday.
At a morning press conference in Calgary, Mr. Webber laid down harsh criticism against Ms. Redford, describing her as an abusive bully and claiming she is killing the PC Party. Mr. Webber’s departure from the PC caucus is a blow, but not a complete surprise. He is currently seeking a federal Conservative nomination, meaning that he was already planning on leaving provincial politics.
With a gloom look on her face, Ms. Redford briskly left the building around 11:30am and was quickly whisked away in her black Suburban SUV.
Not long after the premier’s departure, Tory MLAs slowly poured out of Government House. Most MLAs were tight-lipped and refused to comment about what transpired at their meeting. It appeared that Ms. Redford remained leader of the PC caucus.
Were rumours of an MLA revolt against the premier exaggerated or is it yet to come? Was Ms. Redford able to appease the critics in her caucus by pledging to pay the $45,000 she expensed for a trip to South Africa? Has the PC caucus put the premier on probation?
A party loyalist to the core, deputy premier Dave Hancock held a media scrum announcing that his party’s MLAs were united and focused on “building Alberta.” Meanwhile, the normally combative Labour minister Thomas Lukaszuk was curiously coy, saying only that the caucus had “a very productive conversation.”
Alberta’s long-governing PCs have a history of ruthlessly deposing leaders who threaten their re-election prospects. But while Ms. Redford’s popularity is low and her premiership has become scandal-plagued, PC MLAs must recognize the reality facing their own party.
With less than two years until the next election, the PC Party can ill-afford the financial costs of a hastily called leadership race, which would increase party expenses while diluting their already strapped donor base.
But this is not likely the end of the challenges facing Ms. Redford’s premiership. This upcoming weekend, senior PC Party officials will gather to discuss the future of their party, and their leader will surely be a topic of discussion. For the time-being, Ms. Redford appears to have survived the wrath of her caucus, but can she appease party activists with no appetite for defeat?
Alberta’s Progressive Conservative MLAs are kicking off another year of international travel as Premier Alison Redford, cabinet ministers and backbenchers check their luggage and rack up the air mile points with flights touching down at all points across the globe.
Departing on January 9, Ms. Redford will circle the globe on a sixteen day trip that will see her visit New Dehli, Mumbai and Bangalore, India and then to Davos, Switzerland to promote Alberta’s oil. She will be joined at the beginning of her trip by Intergovernmental Affairs minister Cal Dallas, Human Services minister Manmeet Bhullar and Edmonton-Ellerslie MLA Naresh Bhardwaj at the Petrotech 2014 conference.
Mr. Bhullar and Mr. Bhardwaj will join Ms. Redford for her trip to India (Update: No public itinerary has been released for Mr. Bhullar and Mr. Bhardwaj’s trip to India, so it is unclear how long they will be travelling through that country), but Mr. Dallas will split off the from the premier with a visit to Singapore. In May 2012, the Alberta government announced plans to open new trade offices in India and Singapore, as well as in Brazil and the United States.
Labour minister Thomas Lukaszuk will visit Harbin, Shanghai and Hangzhou, China from January 3 to 10, where he will sign memorandums of understanding with Chinese government science departments and attend the opening ceremony of the Harbin Ice Festival. It is unclear whether he will learn about the People’s Republic approach to workplace safety and workers rights to fit with his new role as Labour minister.
This will be the fourth visit to Harbin by an Alberta cabinet minister since 2012.
Fourth-term PC backbencher Alana DeLong is headed on two trips this month. The Calgary-Bow MLA will attend Pacific North West Economic Region legislative visits in Olympia, Washington and Boise, Idaho from January 13 to 16 and in Juneau, Alaska from January 21 to 23.
The estimated cost for these international trips, including travel, accommodation and meals for politicians and staff in January 2014 is estimated at $218,160.
Map: MLA travel from November 2011 to December 2013
Since my last update in September 2013, government cabinet ministers and MLAs made trips to Istanbul, San Antonio, Washington DC, Shanghai, Harbin, Seoul, Daegu, Beijing, Tokyo, Chicago, Warsaw and London. Since November 2011, Alberta’s cabinet ministers and MLAs have travelled to 24 countries on official government business. By the end of January 2014, it will be 26.
Tomorrow is election day and in counties, municipal districts, villages, towns, and cities across the province, Albertans will cast their votes for mayors, reeves, councillors, aldermen, and school trustees.
In Calgary, uber-popular mayor Naheed Nenshi is expected to crush his opponents, including former Progressive Conservative MLA Jon Lord and a cast of challengers from the political fringe. This election also marks a change of title for Calgary city council members, from “Alderman” to “Councillor.”
With voters in Alberta’s second, third, and fourth largest cities – Edmonton, Red Deer, and Lethbridge – selecting new mayors, there could be a shift in how municipalities interact with the provincial government. With the ongoing war of words between Mayor Nenshi and Municipal Affairs Minister Doug Griffiths, a cast of new mayors could create a new dynamic in municipal-provincial relations in Alberta.
While there will be many new faces on municipal councils after the votes are counted, there could be some familiar characters returning to the fray. Observers of provincial politics in Alberta will recognize some of these candidates.
In Fort McMurray, former PC-turned-Wildrose MLA Guy Boutilier is running for a councillor position on Wood Buffalo’s municipal council, a place where he served as mayor before entering provincial politics in 1997. In Edmonton, former MLA Edmonton-Mill Woods Liberal MLA Weslyn Mather and former Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview MLA Ray Martin could be elected as trustees on Edmonton’s Public School Board.
In St. Albert, where anonymous smear groups run rampant, former Alberta Liberal Party leader Bob Russell is aiming for a political comeback. While he was never elected to the Assembly, Mr. Russell served as Liberal Party leader from 1971 to 1974. He later served as an alderman in St. Albert from 1989 to 1992 and 1995 to 2001.
In the Village of Wabamum, former Stony Plain Tory MLA Fred Lindsay is running as part of a 3-candidate slate. Running for re-election to Wabamum village council, but not on Mr. Lindsay’s slate, is Bill Purdy, who served as the PC MLA for Stony Plain from 1971 to 1986.
Familial relations also cross municipal-provincial lines. Judy Hehr, mother of Calgary-Buffalo Liberal MLA Kent Hehr is running for a spot on the Calgary Board of Education. Strathcona-Sherwood Park PC MLA Dave Quest‘s wife, Fiona Beland-Quest, is running to become a councillor in Strathcona County. Lethbridge mayoral candidate Bridget Mearns is the daughter of Lethbridge-East‘s Liberal-turned-PC MLA Bridget Pastoor. And in Edmonton, Ward 8 councillor Ben Henderson is running for re-election. Mr. Henderson is married to Edmonton-Centre Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman.
In the City of Airdrie, Jane Anderson, the mother of Airdrie Wildrose MLA Rob Anderson is running for a spot on city council as part of the Airdrie United slate. Mr. Anderson’s brother, Nathan Anderson, is running for re-election as mayor of the town of Crossfield.
The appearance of municipal slates in Airdrie and Red Deer could signal the return of partisan style politics in municipal government (slates were common in Alberta’s larger cities until the 1970s and 1980s).
Brussels, Bucharest, and Juneau are three international destinations where Tory MLAs were scheduled to visit during Government of Alberta sponsored trips today.
Environment and Sustainable Resources Minister Diana McQueen and Intergovernmental and International Relations Minister Cal Dallas have embarked on a pan-European tour, meeting with business and government leaders in a handful of continental counties. Backbench Tory MLA Richard Starke, from Vermilion-Lloydminster, is on government business in Juneau, Alaska.
On Wednesday, Health Minister Fred Horne is scheduled to depart for a trip that will take him to Ireland, the United Kingdom, and Belgium.
On October 1, 2012, I published a Google Map, tracking the travel of Alberta’s Tory cabinet minister and MLAs on government business. Here is an updated map, which includes all published scheduled government of Alberta travel by cabinet ministers and MLAs from November 2011 to February 2013.
Trips added since November 2012 include Middle-Eastern travel by Minister Dallas, trips to the United States by Calgary-Bow MLA Alana DeLong, Calgary-Foothills MLA Len Webber, and Strathcona-Sherwood Park MLA Dave Quest, a trip to Chicago by Premier Alison Redford and the four trips mentioned at the beginning of this post.
As I wrote in October, I understand the value of sending cabinet ministers on these trips to promote our province abroad and I generally believe it is in our best interest, but there reaches a certain point when return on investment needs to be demonstrated.
We have received more than 100 entries for the joint Daveberta and CalgaryGritGreat Alberta Election pool and have entered these predictions into a state of the art spreadsheet to discover some interesting predictions for tomorrow’s vote.
The average of the seat count predictions would see Danielle Smith’s Wildrose Party form a minority government with 42 of the 87 seats in the Assembly. The Progressive Conservatives would hold on to 37 (down from 72 in the 2008 election), the NDP would become the third largest party in the Assembly with 4 MLAs, and the Liberals would drop from 9 to 3 MLAs.
The average seat count prediction shows the Alberta Party electing one MLA, but the averages response to the question predicting that party’s best results in a constituency is 22%.
Who will be re-elected?
Most entrants predict that PC MLA Ted Mortonwill be defeated in Chestermere-Rockyview and that Premier Alison Redford will be re-elected in Calgary-Elbow. The entires were split on predicting whether Liberal Party leader Raj Sherman would be re-elected in Edmonton-Meadowlark.
MLA Hunsperger and Leech?
The entries also showed a signifiant split in predicting whether controversial Wildrose Party candidates Allan Hunsperger and Ron Leech would be elected tomorrow.
Edmonton-Glenora
More than 50% of entries predict that PC MLA Heather Klimchuk will be re-elected in hotly contested Edmonton-Glenora campaign. Predicting her opponents chances of winning, 21% chose NDP candidate Ray Martin, 17% chose Alberta Party candidate Sue Huff, 8% chose former Liberal MLA Bruce Miller, and 3% chose Wildrose candidate Don Koziak.
Highest Tory votes
Battle River-Wainwright (represented by PC MLA Doug Griffiths), Edmonton-Whitemud (represented by PC MLA Dave Hancock), Edmonton-South West, Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills (represented by PC MLA Ray Danyluk), Spruce Grove-St. Albert (represented by PC MLA Doug Horner), and Strathcona-Sherwood Park (represented by PC MLA Dave Quest) were the constituencies predicted to have the highest PC vote on election day.
Rocky Mountain House-Sundre: According to Wildrose provincial director Krista Waters, landowners rights advocate and former leader of the Alberta Green Party leader Joe Anglin won the Wildrose nomination on August 13. Mr. Anglin defeated Rocky Mountain House town councillor Sheila Mizera and former constituency association president Ed Wicks. Mr. Anglin earned 22% of the vote as his former party’s candidate in Lacombe-Ponoka in the 2008 provincial election. He was elected to Rimbey Town Council in October 2010.
Cypress-Medicine Hat: Scott Raible, a teacher at Eagle Butte High School, was acclaimed at an NDP joint-nomination meeting last night in Medicine Hat. According to his biography on the school website, he is currently teaching Grade 10, 11 and 12 English Language Arts and in 2002 he founded the radio station CJLT 99.5 FM (currently Power 93.7 FM) and was awarded “Best New Business of the Year” by the Medicine Hat Chamber of Commerce.
Medicine Hat: Dennis Perrier defeated Manuel Martinez at the NDP’s joint-nomination meeting last night in Medicine Hat. Mr. Perrier was the federal NDP candidate in the 2011 federal election and placed second with 13% of the vote, behind Conservative LaVar Payne (who earned 71% of the vote). Mr. Martinez was his party’s candidate in the 2008 provincial election in the Cypress-Medicine Hat constituency, where he earned 3.9% of the vote to PC MLA Len Mitzel‘s 63%.
Sherwood Park-Strathcona: Strathcona County Councillor Jason Gariepy was defeated by Paul Nemetchek in a contested nomination for the Wildrose. Mr. Nemetchek ran for the PC nomination against current MLA Dave Quest in 2008. He was a founding board member for the Strathcona Wildrose and previously worked as a campaign manager for former Conservative Member of Parliament Ken Epp.
Lethbridge-West: Shannon Phillips is seeking the NDP nomination in this constituency. Ms. Phillips is a researcher and policy analyst for the Alberta Federation of Labour (AFL) and previously worked at the Alberta Legislative Assembly as the very talented Communications Director for the Alberta NDP Caucus. She has the endorsements of activists Naomi Klein, Melanee Thomas, AFL President Gil McGowan, and former Edmonton-Calder NDP MLA David Eggen.
While Lethbridge’s two constituencies have traditionally been a close fought battleground between the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals (voters in Lethbridge-East have elected Liberal MLAs since 1993, including former party leader Ken Nicol and current MLA Bridget Pastoor), the area has seen substantial growth for the NDP. In the May 2011 federal election, NDP candidate Mark Sandilands earned an unheard-of strong 27% of the vote, mostly concentrated within Lethbridge city limits. When the votes from the federal election are overlaid on the Lethbridge-West provincial boundaries, the NDP earned around 38% of the vote in the provincial constituency.
The constituency is currently represented by first-term MLA and Advanced Education & Technology Minister Greg Weadick.
Calgary-Buffalo: First-term MLA Kent Hehr has been acclaimed as the Liberal Party candidate. Mr. Hehr was elected in 2008 with 48% of the vote. The Wildrose have acclaimed former QR77 radio host Mike Blanchard as their candidate. Mr. Blanchard had originally sought his party’s nomination in the new constituency of Calgary-Nose Hill-Mackay, but was defeated by Roy Alexander.
Drayton Vally-Devon: Town of Drayton Valley Councillor Dean Shular has been acclaimed as the Wildrose candidate in his constituency. Mr. Shular was first elected to Town Council in 2007.
Drumheller-Stettler: A fifth candidate has joined the Wildrose nomination contest in this east central Alberta constituency. Drumheller Jeweler and FreemasonDoug Wade in Drumheller-Stettler. As reported on this blog in July, Dave France, Rick Strankman, Chris Warwick, and Patrick Turnbull are also seeking the Wildrose nomination.
Edmonton-Meadowlark: Local Wildrose activist Rick Newcombe was acclaimed as the Wildrose candidate in this west Edmonton constituency. Mr. Newcombe had originally sought his party’s nomination in Edmonton-Whitemud, but stepped aside in favour of Ian Crawford. The area is currently represented by former Tory MLA Raj Sherman, who is currently a candidate for the Liberal Party leadership.
Rocky Mountain House-Sundre: He denied it on June 9, but on July 10 landowners rights advocate and Rimbey Town Councillor Joe Anglin submitted his papers to become a candidate for the Wildrose nomination in this constituency. The former Alberta Green Party leader is facing Rocky Mountain House Town Councillor Sheila Mizera and past-president of the local Wildorse Association Ed Wicks.
Sherwood Park-Strathcona: Two candidates have put their names forward for the Wildrose nomination in this constituency. Strathcona County Councillor Jason Gariepy and Paul Nemetchek. Councillor Gariepy made headlines last years when he was sanctioned after sending an email critical of a press release quoting local MLAs Iris Evans and Dave Quest. Mr. Nemetchek was campaign manager for former Reform Party MP Ken Epp.
West Yellowhead: Alberta Party leader Glenn Taylor has been officially nominated as his party’s candidate in the sprawling west Alberta constituency of West Yellowhead.
Mr. Taylor was first elected as the Mayor of the Town of Hinton in 2004 and ran as a candidate for the NDP in this constituency in 1997. I am told that Mr. Taylor will be leaving his position as Mayor this fall to focus full-time on the party’s leadership.
Calgary: The NDP are expected to hold a round of joint-nomination meetings for candidates in Calgary later this month.
Here is a preliminary list and map of MLAs who are supporting candidates in the 2011 Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership contest. Please comment below or send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com if there are additions or subtractions to be made to this list.
Candidate: Doug Horner (12 MLAs) Ray Danyluk (Lac La Biche-St. Paul)
Wayne Drysdale (Grande Prairie-Wapiti)
Hector Goudreau (Dunvegan-Central Peace)
Jack Hayden (Drumheller-Stettler)
Jeff Johnson (Athabasca-Redwater)
Ken Kowalski (Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock)
Genia Leskiw (Bonnyville-Cold Lake)
Len Mitzel (Cypress-Medicine Hat)
Frank Oberle (Peace River)
Luke Ouellette (Innisfail-Sylvan Lake)
Dave Quest (Strathcona)
Greg Weadick (Lethbridge-West)
Candidate: Gary Mar (11 MLAs)
Naresh Bhardwaj (Edmonton-Ellerslie)
Iris Evans (Sherwood Park)
Heather Klimchuk (Edmonton-Glenora)
Mel Knight (Grande Prairie-Smoky)
Diana McQueen (Drayton Valley-Calmar)
Ron Liepert (Calgary-West)
Thomas Lukaszuk (Edmonton-Castle Downs)
Ray Prins (Lacombe-Ponoka)
Rob Renner (Medicine Hat)
George Rogers (Leduc-Beaumont-Devon)
Lloyd Snelgrove (Vermilion-Lloydminster)
Candidate: Ted Morton (10 MLAs)
Moe Amery (Calgary-East)
Carl Benito (Edmonton-Mill Woods)
Evan Berger (Livingstone-Macleod)
Jonathan Denis (Calgary-Egmont)
Doug Elniski (Edmonton-Calder)
George Groenveld (Highwood)
Broyce Jacobs (Cardston-Taber-Warner)
Dave Rodney (Calgary-Lougheed)
Tony Vandermeer (Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview)
David Xiao (Edmonton-McClung)
Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership candidate Doug Horner held a media conference on the steps of the Legislative Assembly building in Edmonton today.
The presser was billed as a launch of his “Enhancing Education” policy framework and his plan to “unite the PC Party,” but in reality it was used as an opportunity to remind the media that despite the attention-making campaigns of Alison Redford and Gary Mar, Mr. Horner is still in this race.
Lite-policy framework
While policy framework introduced some interesting ideas, including the creation of a $50 million fund to help students experience overseas studies and volunteer work, it was surprisingly vague for Mr. Horner who has very capably held the Advanced Education & Technology portfolio over the past four years. The biggest example of this vagueness was found in the eighth point of his plan to unite the PC Party, “Organizational ability to understand the structure needed to implement change and to effectively make things happen.”
A Premier who will be his own gatekeeper
Included in the “Accessible Leadership” section of today’s policy framework release was the promise that as Premier, Mr. Horner would dissolve the Chief of Staff position and create “regional liaison officers” in its place “to ensure that MLA`s, Cabinet Ministers and stakeholders have direct access to the Premier.” This is a subtle shot at Premier Ed Stelmach‘s Chief of Staff Ron Glenn, who’s “gatekeeper” tendencies led to much frustration and resentment among PC MLAs over the past four years.
MLA endorsements
Standing behind Mr. Horner during the media conference were a group of MLAs endorsing his candidacy. Many of these rural MLAs made up the core of Premier Stelmach’s caucus support in his 2006 leadership bid, they include Lac La Biche-St. Paul MLA Ray Danyluk, Grande Prairie-Wapiti MLA Wayne Drysdale, Dunvegan-Central Peace MLA Hector Goudreau, Drumheller-Stettler MLA Jack Hayden, Innisfail-Sylvan Lake MLA Luke Ouellette, and Peace River MLA Frank Oberle. Mr. Horner also has the endorsements of Bonnyville-Cold Lake MLA Genia Leskiw and Strathcona MLA Dave Quest.
These endorsements will make it easy for his opponents to make comparisons between Mr. Horner and to the unpopular Premier Stelmach, but these comparisons would be misguided. Mr. Horner is a sharp mind and is a much better public speaker that the current occupant of the Premier’s office.
Mr. Horner is a former Deputy Premier and has served as the MLA for Spruce Grove-Sturgeon-St. Albert since 2001. He is the son of former Deputy Premier Hugh Horner.