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Alberta Politics

alberta liberals register more than 27,000 eligible voters. no surprise that their leadeship contest is a largely urban affair.

2011 Map of Alberta Liberal Leadership Registered Supporters per constituency
Map of eligible voters in the September 10 Liberal leadership contest by constituency.

The Alberta Liberal Party announced yesterday that over 27,567 Albertans are eligible to vote in their party’s September 10 leadership contest. The eligible group of supporters include 3,690 paid members and 23,877 “registered supporters” who could participate by registering their name and contact information without a fee.

Following complaints from leadership candidate and Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA Hugh MacDonald that the list was filled with fake names, including a cat, a dead woman, and former Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer, the Liberals have culled the list of obvious forgeries (which are to be expected in any leadership contest). Former Edmonton-Meadowlark Tory MLA Raj Sherman claims to have registered over 18,000 of the 27,000 eligible voters. Edmonton-Centre MLA Laurie Blakeman claims that her campaign submitted names for around 1,000. The two other candidates in the contest are Calgarians Bill Harvey and Bruce Payne.

Although the Liberal leadership contest has by far been overshadowed by the more glamorous Progressive Conservative leadership contest set for September 17 (in which over 150,000 Albertans are expected to participate), I am impressed that the Liberals have been able to collect the names of over 27,000 potential supporters. Regardless if these registered supporters actually vote in their leadership contest, their names are now entered into a database that will be useful for the Liberals in the next provincial election.

Not surprisingly, eligible voters in this contest are largely centered in the two main cities of Calgary and Edmonton, highlighting Liberal Party’s almost non-existent levels of support in rural Alberta. Even in a constituency like Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, with a population estimated to be more than 100,000, the Liberals only attracted 134 people to register to vote in their leadership contest.

Unlike traditional one-member-one-vote leadership selection structures, the Liberals have opted to use a weighted-preferential system in constituencies with large numbers of voters. The slightly confusing system is explained on the party’s leadership website:

Each constituency in Alberta is allocated up to 500 points, where each vote up to that number represents one point. Should more than 500 voters cast a ballot in a constituency, each vote in the constituency is applied a weighing formula.

As there are only 15 constituencies with more than 500 eligible voters, it is likely that this system may only be implemented in a handful of them. The only constituency to register more than 1,000 supporters was Edmonton-Whitemud.

Click here to view a breakdown of eligible voters by constituency (pdf)

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Alberta Politics

alberta liberals boast boost in supporters.

Toasting the success of their open membership program, the Alberta Liberals have announced that over the course of the past few months, their party has signed up 15,500 “supporters” to participate in their upcoming leadership contest. These supporters do not have to purchase memberships (of which the Liberals claim to have 3,500 paid members) and can vote in the party’s leadership by providing their name and contact information.

Alberta Liberal Party leadership candidates Bruce Payne, Raj Sherman, Laurie Blakeman, and Hugh MacDonald.
Liberal leadership candidates Bruce Payne, Raj Sherman, Laurie Blakeman, and Hugh MacDonald.

Opening participation in leadership contests to a primary style vote is a positive move, and one that will remove the element of elitism from the party leader selection process.

Candidates in the leadership contest include former Tory MLA Raj Sherman, Liberal MLAs Laurie Blakeman and Hugh MacDonald, and Calgarians Bill Harvey and Bruce Payne.

The challenge that remains is actually engaging these “supporters” to participate in the actual vote and the party process beyond that. The Wildrose Party has around 25,000 paid members and the Progressive Conservatives are expected to grow their membership to over 150,000 paid membership by September.

Focusing on their leadership challenges since the announced departure of their leader David Swann, the Liberals have fallen behind the Wildrose and PCs in nominating candidates for the next provincial election. The Liberals currently have 13 candidates nominated. The Wildrose nominated their 44th candidate this week (Mike Blanchard in Calgary-Buffalo).

Good intentions aside, it feels like the move by the Liberals to open their leadership selection process feels like it may have come an election too late. After being decimated in the 2008 election, the Liberal Party has shown negative momentum in Alberta with their federal cousins drawing only 9% of the province-wide vote in May 2011 and a recent Environics survey showing the Liberals with only 13% province-wide and 19% in their former strong-hold of Edmonton.

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Alberta Politics

what to make of the wildrose drop, the ndp growth, and the tory restoration?

I am not the first political watcher to weigh in with my views on the Calgary HeraldEdmonton Journal poll conducted by Environics that I mentioned on my blog yesterday morning, but I am going to offer my thoughts nonetheless.

The poll of 900 Albertans showed that the Progressive Conservatives have once again risen to a dominant position over the opposition parties, including the ambitious Wildrose Party. This is just one poll, and as we learned from the May 2011 Federal Election, campaigns do matter. Keeping this in mind, here are my interpretations of what the poll could mean for Alberta’s political parties:

Alberta Provincial Party Voting Intentions July 2011 Edmonton Journal-Calgary Herald Environics Poll
The results of a recent Calgary Herald-Edmonton Journal poll conducted by Environics.

Progressive Conservatives: The death of the near-forty-year governing PC Party has been greatly exaggerated. The poll shows PC support is above 50% across the province and above 60% with voters over the age of 65 (who show up to vote).

It is difficult to say if support for the Tories will change when they choose their new leader in September or October, but it is clear that the departure of Premier Ed Stelmach is boosting their electoral fortunes. Unless the next PC Party leader (and Premier-Designate) manages to become more unpopular than Premier Stelmach in the next year, it would be easy to see this party return to its dominant status.

Alberta Liberal leadership candidates July 2011
Liberal leadership candidates Bill Harvey, Bruce Payne, Raj Sherman, Laurie Blakeman, and Hugh MacDonald

Liberals: These numbers should be very concerning for the Liberal Party, which could possibly be polling at its lowest level of support since before the party returned to the Assembly in the 1986 election. The party is in the midst of a leadership contest and despite opening voting to non-members, it has struggled to get media attention.

The one morsel of comfort that the Liberals can take from this poll is that none of the other opposition parties have been able to capture the imagination of Albertans. If they choose the right leader in their September 10 vote, they may be able to survive the coming electoral storm.

Alberta NDP leader and MLA Brian Mason
NDP leader Brian Mason

New Democrats: With help from the bolstered ranks of their brothers and sisters in Ottawa, Alberta’s NDP are showing signs of growth.

The poll shows the NDP are the second choice among voters between the ages of 18 and 24 (30.9%), and of voters outside of Calgary and Edmonton. In Edmonton, the NDP’s traditional seat of strength in Alberta, the party is polling near the same level of support it received in the last provincial election. The question is whether current NDP leader Brian Mason is the right person to capitalize on this bump.

Alberta Wildrose leader Danielle Smith
Wildrose leader Danielle Smith

Wildrose: This poll will put a sour face on the most strident Wildrose supporter. I speculated earlier this month that the Wildrose may have reached the peak of their support in 2010 and this poll certainly suggests that this may be the case.

The departure of Premier Stelmach this fall appears to have removed the lightening rod that turned the Wildrose into a political force in 2010. Forming government looks further away now than it did a year ago, but the Wildrose is still in a better financial and organization position than the other opposition parties. They may have to get used to the sound of the words “Official Opposition Leader Danielle Smith.”

Alberta Party leader Glenn Taylor and MLA Dave Taylor
Alberta Party MLA Dave Taylor and leader Glenn Taylor

Alberta Party: This is poll has no good news for the Alberta Party (and almost no news at all). This poll should be a signal to this party that they should focus their electoral efforts on supporting candidates in two or three constituencies across Alberta, the most obvious being their leader Glenn Taylor in West Yellowhead, MLA Dave Taylor in Calgary-Currie, and former acting-leader Sue Huff in Edmonton-Glenora.

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Alberta Politics

liberal leadership candidates woo edmonton supporters.

 

Liberal leadership candidates (L-R) Bruce Payne, Raj Sherman, Laurie Blakeman, and Hugh MacDonald.
Liberal leadership candidates (L-R) Bruce Payne, Raj Sherman, Laurie Blakeman, and Hugh MacDonald.

More than 200 dedicated Liberal Party supporters piled into Edmonton’s Santa Maria Centre yesterday evening to hear candidates for their party’s leadership speak and answer questions. I attended and was surprised to discover a fairly lively evening for a traditional style all-candidates forum.

All the candidates spoke well, but I believe that the real star of the evening was the moderator, Josipa Petrunic. Ms. Petrunic was well-spoken, articulate, and did not seem to take herself too seriously. I had to ask myself a few times through the course of the evening why she was not on stage as a candidate (she did announce that she plans to stand as a candidate in the next provincial election).

The perceived front-runner, former Tory MLA Raj Sherman, was well-received by the crowd of Liberals, many who see him (rightfully or wrongfully) as a an anti-Tory folk hero. Dr. Sherman spoke well, but will need to expand his responses beyond “health care” in order to prove that he is not a one-trick policy pony.

Despite my being distracted by his uncanny resemblance to James Brolin‘s Governor Robert Ritchie, Bruce Payne spoke well. I am not convinced that he should lead the Liberals, but this experience is sure to help him as his party’s next candidate in Calgary-Varsity (replacing the retiring Harry Chase)

Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA Hugh MacDonald showed his experience with a commanding performance, abandoning his usual conspiracy theory-driven Question Period style for a more dignified pose. His knowledge of detail and experience as Chair of the Public Accounts Committee helped him throughout the evening.

Calgarian Bill Harvey took a strong conservative-angle on fiscal and social policy, made contradictory statements about government involvement in business, and never missed an opportunity to mention a certain former political leader. After hearing the policy positions espoused by this candidate, I would not be surprised to see Mr. Harvey’s name on a Wildrose lawn sign in the near future.

In my opinion, Edmonton-Centre MLA Laurie Blakeman was the only candidate who left the impression that she would define the Liberal Party as more than just a softer version of the Progressive Conservatives. I believe this may be the biggest challenge that will face the next Liberal leader. What place does their party have in a field that has become increasingly dominated by the PCs and Wildrose?

Switching gears, this evening I will be hitting the road eastward to attend the PC leadership forum in Vermilion to watch candidates Doug Griffiths, Doug Horner, Gary Mar, Ted Morton, Rick Orman, and Alison Redford square off in the first of many open-forums.

Visit my Flickr page to see more photos of last night’s Liberal Party forum.

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Alberta Politics

two years later, alberta’s third-party advertising laws are still not proclaimed.

It passed third reading in the Legislative Assembly in 2009, but Bill 205: Election Finances and Contributions Disclosure (Third Party Advertising) Amendment Act has yet to be proclaimed into law.

No Plan Albertans for Change Ad Ed Stelmach
A shot from the infamous "No Plan" ad from the 2008 election.

Introduced as a Private Member’s Bill by Airdrie-Chestermere PC (and now Wildrose) MLA Rob Anderson in 2009, Bill 205 was a reaction to the “No Plan” advertisements launched by the “Albertans for Change” coalition of unions before the 2008 election, which targeted Premier Ed Stelmach. The ads had little effect on the result of that election, which saw Premier Stelmach’s Tories hold 72 of 83 constituencies, but it did contribute to the longer-term narrative that he may have not had a plan.

Unlike a similar law in British Columbia that limits the amount which third-parties can spend on election campaigns, Alberta’s law would limit the amount that can be contributed to a third-party advertising account which has to be registered with the Chief Electoral Officer.

An account must be opened if a third-party group plans to spend $1000 or more on advertising during the election period. Contribution limits mirror the provincial political party financing, which allows for $15,000 outside of election periods and $30000 during election periods. The yet to be proclaimed legislation does not restrict how much third parties can spend, only how much money individuals can contribute to them, as is the case with political parties.

Crossing all sorts of partisan divides, Mr. Anderson’s Bill 205 was supported by New Democrat MLAs Brian Mason and Rachel Notley, who oppose all third-party financing in election campaigns. The legislation was strongly opposed by then-Wildrose Alliance leadership candidate Danielle Smith and opposition Liberal MLAs. Calgary-McCall MLA Darshan Kang suggested that the legislation could be struck down in the courts for violating the Charter of Rights and Freedoms and Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA Hugh MacDonald called the piece of legislation “not fair ” and “not balanced.”

Two years later, with a new leader of the Progressive Conservatives (and Premier-designate) being selected in the Fall and a provincial election expected soon after that, it is suspicious that this law has yet to be proclaimed. With the rise of the Wildrose in 2010 (and the plateauing of their support in 2011), it makes this political watcher wonder whether the Tories wanted to keep their third-party options open in case of a tight election.

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Alberta Politics

a look at the alberta liberal leadership candidates.

You might be forgiven if you have not paid much attention to the Alberta Liberal Party leadership contest, which is currently under way. The Liberal contest is not as exciting as the Progressive Conservative’s leadership contest, as flashy as the Wildrose (now minus the Alliance), or intriguing as the new Alberta Party, but it is important enough not to ignore. The Liberal Party is still the Official Opposition and while it has taken a beating in the polls and public image over the past few years, its next leader will play a role in the next provincial election.

Here is a look at the candidates for their leadership:

Edmonton-Centre Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman
Laurie Blakeman

Laurie Blakeman
Slogan: Laurie4Leader
Elected Experience: MLA for Edmonton-Centre from 1997 to the present.
Background: Laurie Blakeman is known as a vocal and unrelenting critic of the governing Tories. As Deputy Leader under party leaders Kevin Taft and David Swann, she also served as critic for Finance, the Environment, and Culture.

Her strong views as an unapologetic feminist representing Edmonton’s densest urban constituency have made her an enemy to many conservatives, but her skills as Opposition House Leader have gained her respect from some Tory MLAs across the floor. She is also one half of Edmonton’s political power couple, her husband is Ward 8 City Councillor Ben Henderson.

In 1998, Ms. Blakeman supported then-MLA Linda Sloan‘s leadership bid. She declined to run for her party’s leadership in 2004, telling the Globe & Mail that “she doesn’t have the fire in her belly to run” and again in 2008 admitting that fundraising was not her strength. Earlier this year she publicly mused about joining the Alberta Party, but instead decided to seek the Liberal Party leadership.

(Disclaimer: I like Laurie Blakeman have volunteered for her election campaigns in 2004 and 2008).

Liberal candidate Bill Harvey
Bill Harvey

Bill Harvey
Slogan: Returning to responsible government
Elected Experience: Liberal candidate in Calgary-East in 2004 and 2008.
Background: Calgary financial advisor Bill Harvey entered the leadership contest this week with a message that Liberals need to return to their past roots to succeed in the future. The main message on his website reminds Liberals of their 1990’s glory days under former leader Laurence Decore and is peppered with fiscal conservative language.

In 2008, he ran a “law and order” and “tough on crime” focused campaign, which earned him an endorsement by Craig Chandler‘s hyper-conservative Progressive Group for Independent Business. His website says that he will be releasing a detailed platform later this month.

Edmonton-Gold Bar Liberal MLA Hugh MacDonald
Hugh MacDonald

Hugh MacDonald
Slogan: None
Elected experience: MLA for Edmonton-Gold Bar from 1997 to present
Background: Since stepping into his role as the opposition labour critic during his first-term and making headlines over the government’s shaky handling of rotting pine shakes roofing and lack of whistle-blower protection, Hugh MacDonald earned a reputation as a dogged critic of the Tories. As Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, his focus on uncovering Tory scandals sometimes makes him appear on the verge of paranoia, but he is relentless and hardworking. It is not uncommon to see Mr. MacDonald buried in books, doing his own research in the Legislature Library.

Mr. MacDonald is a dyed-in-the-wool Liberal partisan. Even if the Liberal Party is wiped off the political map in the next election, Hugh MacDonald will fight to the end (clasping a battle-axe in one hand while caped in blood-soaked battle armour under a Liberal Party flag). Inside the Liberal Party, Mr. MacDonald appeals to the stalwart crowd who believe that it is not the Liberal brand that has damaged their party, but that party members who have not adhered enough loyalty to the Liberal brand are responsible for the party’s 80 years of electoral defeat.

Mr. MacDonald has the endorsements of former party leaders Nick Taylor and Ken Nicol and former MLAs Bill Bonner and Yolande Gagnon.

Bruce Payne Liberal candidate
Bruce Payne

Bruce Payne
Slogan: 87 Strong
Elected experience: Nominated as the Liberal candidate in Calgary-Varsity
Background: An unknown outside some Calgary political circles, it is difficult to know whether Bruce Payne is actually a serious candidate in this contest.

A long-time union leader, in 2007 he led the 6,000 southern Alberta carpenters union as it and seven other construction unions threatened Alberta’s first multi-trade strike in almost 30 years. He was later the Spokesperson for the Alberta and Northwest Territories Regional Council of Carpenters and Allied Workers and President of the Building Trades of Alberta Southern Council.

His 87 Strong slogan is in reference to the 87 constituencies that will be created when the next election is called. His campaign also takes a shot at the current Liberal MLAs and their tendency to attack the Tories for every “scandals, faux-pas, screw-ups, miscues and arrogant decisions” without a long-term strategy.

His campaign manager is the former Liberal Caucus communications director Neil Mackie, who departed from his job at the Assembly earlier this year.

Edmonton-Meadowlark MLA Raj Sherman Independent Liberal
Raj Sherman

Raj Sherman
Slogan: None
Elected experience: MLA Edmonton-Meadowlark from 2008 to present
Background: Former Tory MLA Raj Sherman could be both the wildcard and the front-runner in this contest. Six months ago he wanted nothing to do with the Liberal Party as he sat in the PC caucus as Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Health & Wellness. Since writing the bluntly-worded email that led to hm being kicked out of the PC caucus, Dr. Sherman has attained a folk hero status among many Albertans.

After opening up their leadership vote to any Albertan without having to purchase a membership, I have a difficult time seeing Dr. Sherman as anything but the front-runner in this contest.

Although his opponents will criticize him for switching parties, it is hard to believe that Dr. Sherman has ever actually “belonged” to any political party. On February 13, 2008 PC candidate Dr. Sherman told the Edmonton Journal, “Ideas belong to society, they don’t belong to a party. For me, it wasn’t so much about parties as about getting the idea to the people who make decisions.”

Dr. Sherman has the support of former MLA Bharat Agnihotri, and I have been told that Calgary-Buffalo MLA Kent Hehr and Calgary-McCall MLA Darshan Kang are lending their support to his campaign.

Not yet entered the contest:

There may be a sixth candidate to enter this contest. Word on the street is that the executive of a medium-sized Calgary-based energy company may announce his candidacy next week.

Categories
Alberta Politics

bill harvey enters liberal leadership contest.

Bill Harvey Liberal candidate leadership calgary

Calgary financial services executive Bill Harvey is the fifth candidate to join the Alberta Liberal leadership contest. Mr. Harvey was the Liberal candidate in Calgary-East in 2004 and 2008, where he earned 28% of the vote each time. He was also an unsuccessful candidate for the Liberal nomination in Calgary-McCall in 1991.

While running a “tough on crime” focused campaign in 2008, Mr. Harvey became the first Liberal candidate to ever be endorsed by Craig Chandler‘s ultra-conservative Progressive Group for Independent Business.

With liberal use of italics, Mr. Harvey has described his decision to seek his party’s leadership in a letter to members. Taking a curious cue from stalwart candidate Hugh MacDonald, Mr. Harvey invokes the name of former party leader Laurence Decore and argues that the Liberal Party in Alberta needs to return to its past to succeed in future elections.

Mr. Harvey joins four candidates already in the contest, Edmonton-Centre MLA Laurie Blakeman, Mr. MacDonald, Bruce Payne, and former Tory MLA Raj Sherman. Read this blog tomorrow for a more indepth post on the backgrounds of the candidates and their campaigns.

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Alberta Politics

how much money do alberta’s political parties have in the bank? comparing financial disclosures from 2009 and 2010.

Submitted to Elections Alberta earlier this year, the 2010 financial disclosures from the constituency associations of Alberta’s political parties have been released (the central party financial disclosures were released in April). I have taken some time over the past few days to collect the 2010 data and compare them with financial disclosures from 2009.

There are a number of interesting things about these disclosures, including the annual expenses of some constituency associations as recently mentioned by Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA Hugh MacDonald.

Not surprisingly, the Progressive Conservatives have shown their political strength with functional organizations in nearly all 83 constituencies. PC constituency associations disclosed over $3.1 million in net assets in 2010, a jump from $2.5 million in 2009. The three wealthiest PC constituency associations with over $100,000 in net assets are Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock (MLA Ken Kowalski), Calgary-Elbow (MLA Alison Redford), and Whitecourt-Ste. Anne (MLA George VanderBurg).

The Wildrose Alliance showed substantial growth in 2010, as its constituency associations grew their total net assets to $455,595 from a low $78,298 in 2009. The constituency organizations of two of that party’s new MLAs, former Tories Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth, increased their net assets by an impressive $60,723 in Airdrie-Chestermere and $36,075 in Calgary-Fish Creek in 2010.

The Liberals showed marginal financial growth and still face substantial challenges in fundraising compared to the PCs and Wildrose Alliance. The Liberals fundraised well in constituencies their 8 MLAs currently represent and a few other constituencies which that party’s MLAs held until the last election (notably Edmonton-Rutherford, where former MLA RIck Miller is his party’s nominated candidate).

In five constituencies that the Liberals represented until 2008 or more recently, there were signs that none or very little local fundraising had taken place in 2010 (Calgary-Currie, Calgary-Elbow, Edmonton-Decore, Edmonton-Ellerslie, and Edmonton-Meadowlark).

Alberta NDP local organizations in the majority of the province’s constituencies appeared to be dormant or non-existant in 2010.

The NDP is strategically targeting its financial and organizational resources in a handful of constituencies in Edmonton where it hopes it can make gains in the next election. While the party’s local organizations have not wracked up large net assets, there is noticeable spending happening in a few constituencies (including more than $24,000 in expenses in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview where candidate Deron Bilous is campaigning).

Here are breakdowns of the party’s 2009 and 2010 financial disclosures:

Categories
Alberta Politics

alberta liberals hype structural changes.

Groundbreaking. Gargantuan. Real renewal. Politics re-imagined.

These are all words that I have heard used to describe the changes made to the Liberal Party’s internal structure at a special general meeting last weekend. Do any of these words really apply? Not really, but that does not mean that the changes are not good.

In a matter of three hours, a group of 120 Liberal Party members re-wrote portions of their party’s constitution and threw out the only recently approved rules for their just started leadership contest. I commented on the changes soon after they were proposed two weeks ago and while I do not believe that the Liberal Party will find an easy solution to the problems they face in these changes, it may be a move in the right direction.

The structural change that appears to have attracted the most attention was the move to give supporters who do not want to pay $5 to purchase a party membership a vote in the leadership contest (this appears to be similar to what the New Brunswick Liberal Party does, except that party only collects $5 if a member wants a membership card to carry around in their wallet). This change attracted general scepticism from political watchers like David Climenhaga and former Edmonton-Meadowlark Liberal MLA Maurice Tougas.

Only a completely politically inept person would believe that a $5 fee is what has been stopping Albertans from flocking en-masse into the Liberal Party ranks, but that is not what this is really about.

From an organization standpoint, the changes are about collecting contact information from existing or future supporters and then trying to draw this new blood into the party, something that it desperately needs.

The changes are an attempt to generate some much needed attention for their leadership contest, which became a necessity when that party’s two-year long leader David Swann announced his resignation in January 2010. The race has attracted an odd cast of characters in former PC MLA Raj Sherman, Calgary union leader Bruce Payne, and Edmonton MLAs Laurie Blakeman and Hugh MacDonald.

The Liberals announced the changes one day after the Alberta Party chose Glenn Taylor as their new leader. Liberals will boast that their leadership contest will attract more involvement than the lower-key Alberta Party contest and they are likely to be right. There were 8,000 Liberal members eligible to vote in that party’s 2008 contest, a number that the Liberals should be able to recreate in 2011.

If anything, the Liberals should be hoping for numbers closer to the 25,000 members that the Wildrose Alliance has grown to since electing Danielle Smith as their leader in 2009.

Regardless of how open the Liberal leadership contest is to supporters, it will still not attract the amount of interest and attention as the looming Progressive Conservative leadership contest. Albertans will still need to pay $5 to vote the in the PC contest and in 2006 over 140,000 Albertans did. Expect at least the same number to do so in 2011.

Categories
Alberta Politics

hugh macdonald enters the race. frustrated liberals debated holding early july leadership vote.

Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA Hugh MacDonald speaks at a December 2010 rally.
Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA Hugh MacDonald delivers a raucous speech at a 2010 rally.

As predicted on this blog months ago, four-term Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA Hugh MacDonald has entered the Liberal Party leadership contest, scheduled to culminate on September 10. A religiously partisan Liberal to the Nth degree, Mr. MacDonald is known as much for being a hard-working MLA as he is for his obsession with discovering scandal in the PC government.

Mr. MacDonald’s entry into the Liberal contest comes only weeks after the party faced some serious divisions at its Board of Directors meeting in Red Deer on May 7. At the meeting, a raucous discussion was held about the timing of the leadership contest.

A number of Liberal members approached this blogger after the May 7 Board meeting, venting their frustration after former leader and Edmonton-Riverview MLA Kevin Taft (who did not attend the meeting) wrote an email in which he raised concerns about the party being behind on election preparedness. Mr. MacDonald read the letter at the Board meeting in Dr. Taft’s absence.

I am told that Dr. Taft’s letter set the stage for a raucous discussion about moving the leadership vote from September 10, 2011 to early July 2011 in order to allow more time to prepare for the next general election, which is expected as early as November 2011. I am told that the early date was supported by Edmonton-Centre MLA Laurie Blakeman, who is also seeking the party leadership.

According to people at the meeting, PC MLA turned Liberal leadership candidate Raj Sherman supported the September 2011 date, noting the challenges of trying to hold a leadership convention on the same weekend as the Calgary Stampede.

Also supporting the September date was nominated Calgary-Varsity candidate Bruce Payne, who is expected to enter the leadership contest. Mr. Payne is said to have delivered a speech about how summer is the greatest time for the three contenders to “storm the province and create excitement.”

In the end, the political veterans defeated and it was decided that the vote be held on September 10.

When contacted by this blogger, Liberal Party Executive Director Corey Hogan said via email that while he is obviously “not happy using 2008 as a benchmarkh”, his Party is in similar financial and organizational position to where it was a month before the last provincial election.

The Liberal Party is facing some awkward timing. Many frustrated Liberals I have spoken with now admit that it was a strategic error to hold a leadership contest in December 2008, so soon after that Party lost half its MLAs in that year’s election. Had waited longer they may have attracted a more diverse field of candidates than they did that year.

Unlike 2008, when they held the contest too soon when the party had plenty of time, in 2011 that Party is now holding a leadership contest late when it is does not have the luxury of having plenty of time on its side.

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Alberta Politics

alberta politics notes 3/04/2011

Three years later.
What a change three years can make. On March 3, 2008, Premier Ed Stelmach led the PCs to a massive majority, winning 72 of 83 seats in the Assembly. The sweep saw the Kevin Taft led Liberals halved from 16 MLAs to 9 MLAs and that party’s stronghold in Edmonton wither to three seats, Brian Mason‘s NDP were reduced from 4 to 2 MLAs, and the Wildrose Alliance‘s leader and only MLA Paul Hinman was defeated in Cardston-Taber-Warner (he would later be elected in the 2009 Calgary-Glenmore by-election). The election also marked the lowest voter-turnout in Alberta’s history as almost 60% of Albertans did not exercise the vote.

Alberta MPs caught in campaign scandal
A staffer in Calgary-Southeast Conservative MP and Minister of Immigration Jason Kenney‘s office in Ottawa has resigned after being caught using ministerial letterhead to solicit donations for the Conservative Party.

The letter was discovered when it was accidentally delivered to Edmonton-Strathcona NDP MP Linda Duncan‘s Ottawa office. Unfortunately for Ms. Duncan, her office does not have much moral authority on this issue. In February 2010, a conservative blogger discovered that Ms. Duncan’s Constituency Assistant and Campaign Manager Erica Bullwinkle had used her Parliamentary email account for campaign purposes.

More Tories join Wildrose
Former Finance Minister Lyle Oberg is not the only former Tory member to join the Wildrose Alliance. Perennial Edmonton PC nomination candidate Ian Crawford has also signed up for a Wildrose membership. Mr. Crawford, who last ran unsuccessfully for the PC nomination in Edmonton-Meadowlark against Raj Sherman and (now-Liberal Party executive) Debbie Cavaliere in 2007, is the son of former PC cabinet minister Neil Crawford.

Liberals tackle health care
The Liberals are without a long-term leader, but that has not stopped them from focusing on health care – an issue I believe could be their ticket back to relevance before the next election, especially while the Wildrose continues to push for increased privatization inside the health care system.

Gary Mar
Alberta’s representative in Washington DC, former cabinet minister Gary Mar, has been expected to announce his entry into the PC leadership contest for the past few weeks. Mr. Mar’s website domain name was registered by a supporter in January and he recently popped up on Facebook with a brand new profile page (I have sent in a friend request).

 

Gary Mar has joined Facebook (and Ted Morton ads).

AHS Chair joining PC contest?
Alberta Health Services Chairman Ken Hughes‘ name has been bandied around as a potential candidate for the PC leadership contest. The former PC MP and insurance industry executive has reportedly been testing the waters through phone polls over the past few weeks.

Immunity challenge
Raj Sherman, serious allegations, wants immunity.

Deputy Pastoor
Lethbridge-East MLA Bridget Pastoor replaced Edmonton-Centre MLA Laurie Blakeman as Deputy Leader of the Official Opposition this week. Ms. Blakeman, who is seeking the Liberal leadership, will continue in her other critic roles.

Nominations
I have updated the list of nominated and declared election candidates to include two PC MLAs who were nominated this week, PC leadership candidate and former Justice Minister Allison Redford was chosen as her party’s candidate in Calgary-Elbow at a nomination meeting this week. Ms. Redford was first elected in 2008, unseating Liberal MLA Craig Cheffins in a close-fought campaign. Elbow was represented by Ralph Klein from 1989 until his resignation in 2007, when Mr. Cheffins was elected in a by-election.

Red Deer-South PC MLA Cal Dallas won his party’s nomination in the constituency he was first elected to represent in 2008.

YouTube
The Calgary Herald has been posting a number of YouTube video interviews on their website. In this one, pollster Janet Brown offers some thoughts on the PC leadership contest:

Read more in the Alberta Politics Notes archive.

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Alberta Politics

liberal leadership poll: erick ambtman who?

Liberal Party President Erick Ambtman edged out Calgary-Buffalo MLA Kent Hehr in the latest blog poll asking readers of this blog who they thought should replace Calgary-Mountain View MLA David Swann as leader of his party. In close third is former Edmonton Member of Parliament Anne McLellan, a high-profile name in Alberta politics.

In a distant fourth is the only candidate to have actually declared interest in seeking the job, Edmonton-Centre MLA Laurie Blakeman.

Mr. Ambtman is a virtual unknown to most people outside Liberal Party and some other political circles, but his performance at a media conference following Dr. Swann’s resignation announcement gave him an opportunity to show off some of his respectable speaking skills to the media. If he does not seek his party’s leadership, he could be a strong candidate in the next election.

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Alberta Politics

nominations update – edmonton.

As the contests to replace the leaders of the governing Progressive Conservative Party and the Opposition Liberal Party and new Alberta Party grab the media spotlight, political parties have been quietly nominating candidates for the next election. I have been keeping track of the nominated and declared candidates across the province and this post focuses on the candidates stepping up to stand for election in Edmonton.

There is little reason to believe that constituencies in Edmonton will be any less competitive than they have been over the past 25 years and the rise of the Wildrose Alliance in public opinion polls will certainly effect the electoral environment in ways that we have not seen in previous elections.

Edmonton ridings with nominated NDP candidates (as of March 1, 2011).

Edmonton-Calder
Former MLA David Eggen has secured the NDP nomination and will attempt to win back the constituency that he represented from 2004 to 2008. The boundary changes presented in the interim report of the Electoral Boundaries Committee convinced Mr. Eggen to initially seek his party’s nomination in neighboring Edmonton-Glenora, but the final report’s boundaries shifted key neighbourhoods back to his former constituency.

The incumbent MLA, PC backbencher Doug Elniski, defeated Mr. Eggen by 201 votes in 2008. An amiable guy, Mr. Elniski has suffered from a few unfortunate public mis-speaks in his first term. Calder may be the truest “swing-riding” in Alberta, as it has been represented by PCs, New Democrats, and Liberals since 1986 and in the same time only twice re-elected an incumbent to a second term.

Edmonton-Clareview
Incumbent backbench PC MLA Tony Vandermeer was elected in 2008 by defeating NDP MLA Ray Martin by 337 votes (Mr. Martin is now the federal NDP candidate in Edmonton-East). Mr. Vandermeer also served as the PC MLA for Edmonton-Manning between 2001 and 2004. The NDP have nominated teacher Deron Bilous, who was his party’s candidate in Edmonton-Centre in the 2008 election.

Edmonton-Decore
First-term PC backbencher Janice Sarich made the transition from Catholic School District Trustee to MLA in 2008, snatching this seat from Liberal MLA Bill Bonko by 682 votes. Mrs. Sarich’s victory marked the first time that the PCs elected an MLA in this area since 1982. The Liberals have yet to officially nominate their candidate, but Zack Siezmagraff has started his campaign to reclaim the constituency for his party. The NDP have nominated Sheriff Ali Haymour as their candidate. Mr. Haymour was his party’s 2008 candidate in the neighboring Edmonton-Castle Downs, where he earned 9.6% against incumbent MLA Thomas Lukaszuk.

Edmonton ridings with nominated Liberal candidates (as of March 1, 2011).

Edmonton-Gold Bar
Incumbent Liberal MLA Hugh MacDonald is expected to seek re-election in the constituency he has represented since 1997. The only nominated challenger is New Democrat Marlin Schmidt, who is also President of his party’s electoral district association in the federal riding of Edmonton-Strathcona. Mr. MacDonald could face another dog-fight with his 2008 PC challenger David Dorward, who built a substantial amount of name recognition after his unsuccessful Mayoral bid in 2010.

Edmonton-McClung
Another swing-riding, first-term PC backbencher David Xiao could face of against nominated former Liberal MLA Mo Elsalhy, who represented the constituency from 2004 until 2008. Mr. Elsalhy sought the Liberal leadership in 2008, placing third and has announced that he will stay out of the current contest.

Edmonton-Meadowlark
Elected as a PC in 2008, Dr. Raj Sherman became an Independent MLA after being kicked out of the PC caucus in November 2010. Dr. Sherman has used his position as a vocal critic of the PC government’s record on health care to become a sort of political folk hero for Albertans, but recent comments have rubbed off some of his political shine. The constituency has been represented for most of the past 20 years by Liberal MLAs, most recently Maurice Tougas until 2008. Notwithstanding that party’s long history in the constituency, it has yet to nominate a candidate for the next election. Local Wildrose constituency President Rick Newcombe has expressed an interest in being his party’s candidate, but has yet to official declare his intentions.

Edmonton-Mill Woods
Former Liberal MLA Weslyn Mather will attempt to reclaim the constituency she lost to PC Carl Benito in 2008. Since being elected, Mr. Benito has become the source of amusement/ridicule for his strident support of Alberta’s official mushroom, his broken promise to donate his entire MLA salary to a scholarship fund, and his publicly blaming his wife for not filing his property taxes for two years. The NDP have nominated AUPE Vice-President Sandra Azocar as their candidate and are hoping that former Liberal-represented middle-class constituencies like Mill Woods are places that they can grow.

Edmonton ridings with nominated Wildrose candidates (as of March 1, 2011).

Edmonton-Riverview
The retirement of three-term Liberal MLA Kevin Taft will leave big shoes for candidates in this constituency to fill. I spoke with 2008 PC candidate Wendy Andrews at last week’s Speech from the Throne and she told me that she was still undecided about whether she wanted to run again. The Liberals have yet to hold a nomination meeting and the only candidate to publicly declare interest is consultant and Rotarian Arif Khan. I have heard rumors that former Public School Board Trustee Don Fleming may be interested in seeking the nomination. The NDP will nominate College of Social Workers coordinator Lori Sigurdson and are hoping that the votes MP Linda Duncan received in this area can be translated provincially. The Wildrose Alliance have nominated John Corie.

Edmonton-Rutherford
With three challengers already nominated, first-term PC backbencher Fred Horne has his work cut out for him. His main challenger at this point is former Liberal MLA Rick Miller, who represented the constituency from 2004 until 2008 when he was unexpectedly unseated by Mr. Horne. Mr. Miller has stayed involved in politics since 2008 as the Chief of Staff for the Liberal Official Opposition. The NDP have nominated Melanie Samaroden as their candidate and the Wildrose have re-nominated their 2008 candidate Kyle McLeod.

An overview of nominations in Calgary constituencies will be posted later this week.

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Alberta Politics

alberta politics notes 2/18/2011

Robbing Peter to pay Paul…
…or robbing the Liberals and NDP to pay the Wildrose Alliance. The PC MLA-dominated Legislative committee responsible for allocating funds to Assembly caucuses voted to give in to Wildrose Alliance demands for increased caucus funding, but it came at the expense of the other three parties caucuses. While the 67 MLA PC caucus will barely notice the decrease, the slightest decrease in funding is the difference between a one more staff member or not for the opposition caucuses. Chalk this one up to another round of institutional micro-management and political games by Speaker Ken Kowalski.

New Justice Minister Verlyn Olson.

Cabinet Shuffle
A cabinet shuffle led to two first term backbench MLAs replacing two Cabinet Ministers seeking the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party. Wetaskiwin-Camrose MLA Verlyn Olson replaces Alison Redford as Justice Minister and Lethbridge-West MLA Greg Weadick replaces Doug Horner as Minister of Advanced Education & Technology. Red Deer-South MLA Cal Dallas replaces Doug Griffiths as the Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Finance, who is now Minister Lloyd Snelgrove.

Readers may remember Mr. Olson from his controversial motion on the Public Accounts Committee in 2010, which tried to strip the autonomy of the committee’s chairman, Edmonton-Gold Bar Liberal MLA Hugh MacDonald. Fun fact: Mr. Weadick is a decedent of Guy Weadick, the founder of the Calgary Stampede.

Calgary’s new Political Minister
Filling Ms. Redford’s former position as political minister for Calgary is long-time Calgary-Cross MLA and Minister of Children & Youth Services Yvonne Fritz.

Bitumen!
The Provincial Government and North West Upgrading announced that a deal had been reached to begin the construction of the first phase of a new upgrader near Fort Saskatchewan. Premier Ed Stelmach called it “a bold step”, but that was not good enough for NDP MLA Brian Mason. Mr. Mason made the point of attacking Premier Stelmach, saying that despite past promises to keep upgrading jobs in Alberta, more jobs have moved to the United States.

Blakeman aims for Liberal leadership
Edmonton-Centre MLA Laurie Blakeman announced yesterday that she is seeking the Liberal leadership. The four-term opposition MLA is the first candidate to enter the contest to replace outgoing leader David Swann. In her speech yesterday, Ms. Blakeman, the party’s Deputy Leader, explained that she had toyed with the idea of joining the new Alberta Party, but later decided to stay with her current party.

Ms. Blakeman is one half of an Edmonton political power couple with her husband Ben Henderson, who is the City Councillor for Ward 8.


Ms. Blakeman’s second V-log takes a creative angle at explaining the political spectrum.

Lukaszuk weighing his options
A well-placed source has informed this blogger that Employment & Immigration Minister Thomas Lukaszuk has been weighing his options about joining the PC leadership contest.

Second Alberta Party leadership candidate
Calgarian Tammy Maloney has announced that she is seeking the Alberta Party leadership. Ms. Maloney is an entrepreneur, a former Oil & Gas business analyst and IESE MBA. She also worked for the Clinton Foundation in Nigeria. Ms. Maloney’s only other challenger so far is Hinton Mayor Glenn Taylor, who entered the contest two weeks ago.

Unions call for fair revenue
At a joint media conference yesterday morning, the Alberta Federation of Labour President Gil McGowan, United Nurses of Alberta Vice-President Bev Dick, Alberta Union of Provincial Employees President Guy Smith, and Health Sciences Association of Alberta President Elisabeth Ballermann called for the Auditor General to investigate the amount of natural resource royalties collected by the provincial government. In advance of next week’s provincial budget, the Union leaders want an open debate about Alberta’s revenue challenges.

Carter: smooth political operator
Edmonton Journal columnist Graham Thomson focused his latest column on the strategies of paid political operative Stephen Carter. Mr.Carter, who is known for his work for the Wildrose Alliance and Naheed Nenshi‘s campaign, is a high-profile hire on Ms. Redford’s PC leadership campaign. Watch out Rod Love, at this rate Mr. Carter is becoming Alberta’s next biggest celebrity political operative.

PC leadership candidate Ted Morton hunting for conservative votes.

Morton country no more?
An editorial in the Rocky View Weekly questions whether former Finance Minister Ted Morton will receive the kind of support from Airdrie-Chestermere Tories in the current PC leadership contest that he did in 2006. Five years ago Mr. Morton earned the support of 57% of PC members in that constituency, with 26% supporting Jim Dinning and 17% supporting Premier Stelmach. With the constituency now represented by Wildrose MLA Rob Anderson, it will be interesting to see if conservative voters in that area are still comfortable with Mr. Morton or whether they have found a new political home.

Nomination updates: Calgary Varsity and Edmonton-Centre
The list of declared and nominated candidates for the next provincial election has been updated. The nomination contest to replace two-term Calgary-Varisty Liberal MLA Harry Chase looks to be an acclamation. The only candidate to step forward appears to be Bruce Payne, a Business Representative with Carpenters’ Union, Local 2103 in Calgary. Mr. Chase surprised many political watchers when he grabbed the seat from the PCs in a close election in 2004 and was re-elected in 2008 defeating PC Jennifer Diakiw.

The Wildrose Alliance nomination contest in Varsity has drawn three candidates, Justin Anderson, Kevin Dick, and Brian Sembo.

Meanwhile, 26-year old Drew Adamick is seeking the yet to be scheduled NDP nomination in Edmonton-Centre. Mr. Adamick was the 2008 federal Liberal candidate in Cariboo-Prince George, where he placed third behind Conservative MP Dick Harris.

Read more in the Alberta Politics Notes archive.

Categories
Alberta Politics

scott mckeen running for liberal party leader?

Scott McKeen talks to reporters at Edmonton City Hall on the first day of the 2010 municipal elections.

Is former Edmonton Journal columnist Scott McKeen preparing to seek the leadership of the Liberal Party of Alberta?

Mr. McKeen has been coy about his political future following his unsuccessful City Council bid against Councillor Tony Caterina in October 2010 and sources tell me that Mr. McKeen may be the first candidate to enter the Liberal Party’s yet to begin leadership contest.

Coincidental to these rumours is the new job of Mr. McKeen’s Council campaign manager Brian Leadbetter, who will become the Director of Communications for the Liberal Caucus this week.

Contributing to some intrigue online, Mr. McKeen’s near dormant Twitter account has recently attracted two notable followers, Liberal Chief of Staff Rick Miller and former MLA Mo Elsalhy.

As a seasoned civic affairs columnist and long-time journalist, I thought that he would have been a good City Councillor, but Leader of the Official Opposition in Alberta is a completely different ballgame. That party desperately needs new blood and Mr. McKeen would be an interesting choice if these rumours end up being true.

Almost two weeks after leader David Swann announced that the would not lead his party into the next election, the contest to replace him remains quiet with only speculation about who may stand. Despite its dysfunctionalities, there are a few political perks to becoming leader of the Liberal Party in Alberta. That party’s new leader will be, at least until the next election or massive round of floor-crossings, the Leader of the Official Opposition.

MLA Hugh MacDonald at the December 2010 healthcare rally at the Legislature.

Meanwhile, three of the province’s eight Liberal MLAs are also said to be testing the waters for their own leadership bids – Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA Hugh MacDonald, Edmonton-Centre MLA Laurie Blakeman, and Calgary-Buffalo MLA Kent Hehr.

UPDATE: Mr. McKeen sent me a kind email this morning stating that “No, I’m not running for Liberal leadership. Not considering it. Nor will I.”