Tag: Alberta Separation Referendum

Donald Trump is increasingly unstable, authoritarian, and expansionist

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date January 25, 2026

Increasing political and economic instability in the United States and President Trump’s threats to expand American military and political control over the western hemisphere could have dramatic effects on Canada. The breaking of the United States’ long-standing close relationship with democratic Europe and Trump’s continued threats to annex the Danish autonomous territory of Greenland and make Canada the 51st State could define world politics in 2026.

Just this week Trump posted a doctored photo on social media of him sitting in front of a map with the US flag superimposed over Canada, Greenland and Venezuela. The use of military force to remove Maduro and Trump’s freewheeling use of trade tariffs against countries who’s leaders he feels have personally insulted him suggests that Albertans and Canadians should take him very seriously.

Trump’s rambling, erratic behaviour and his embrace of authoritarianism is deeply troubling and will have a big impact on Albertans and our fellow Canadians across the country.

Lower international price of oil will hit Alberta’s 2026 budget hard

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date January 25, 2026

Oil production in our province is at a record high but, as Albertans have learned time and time again, we have absolutely no control over the international price of oil that makes or breaks our local economy.

Forecasts for oil prices are not encouraging for 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has projected that the price of West Texas Intermediate oil could average around $50 to $52 per barrel and, with a glut of oil on the international market, Goldman Sachs expects WTI to average $53 per barrel in 2026.

This is trouble for the Government of Alberta, which relies heavily on revenues from oil and gas royalties to fund the daily operations of public services like heath care and education. The Alberta government’s 2025 budget projected WTI at $68 per barrel but as of the second quarter update in November the average price was $61.50 per barrel. Each $1 change in the price of WTI has an estimated $750-million impact on provincial government revenue.

Will Danielle Smith call an early election in Alberta?

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date January 22, 2026

Minister of Hospital and Surgical Health Services Matt Jones and Premier Danielle Smith at a government press conference in December 2025 (source: Alberta Newsroom / Flickr)

After months of speculation, Premier Danielle Smith said during her 2025 year-end interviews that she isn’t planning to call an early election in 2026, but anyone who pays attention to politics knows: circumstances change.

The next provincial general election is scheduled to happen in October 2027 but there continues to be wide speculation that an early election could be called — and there are plenty of reasons to believe why.

Smith’s UCP remains ahead of Naheed Nenshi’s Alberta NDP in the polls and the governing party continues to raise large amounts of donations. And there is little doubt that Smith remains one of the most effective and shrewd political communicators in Alberta and in Canada’s conservative movement.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Abi Johnson, Abigail Johnson, Alberta Election 2026, Alberta Election 2027, Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission, Alberta Electoral Map, Alberta Health Services, Alberta NDP, Alberta Politics Substack, Alberta Prosperity Project, Alberta Separation Referendum, Alberta Separatism, Athana Mentzelopoulos, Avi Lewis, Battle River-Crowfoot, Ben Shapiro, Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, Calgary-Bow, Calgary-Bow MLA Recall Campaign, Calgary-Shaw, Calgary-Shaw by-election, Canada as the 51st State, Canada Election Substack, Coal Mining, Coal Mining Referendum, Corb Lund, Danielle Smith, Daveberta Substack, Dawn Farrell, Demetrios Nicolaides, Dodgy Contracts Scandal, Donald Trump, Doug Wylie, Edmonton Riverbend by-election, Edmonton-Riverbend, Edmonton-Strathcona, Federal NDP leadership race 2026, Forever Canadian, Grant Hunter, Greenland, Heather McPherson, Major Projects Office, Mark Carney, Matt Jeneroux, Matt Jones, Mickey Amery, Minister of Hospital and Surgical Health Services, Mitch Sylvestre, MLA Recall in Alberta, Naheed Nenshi, Nathan Cooper, Nicholas Maduro, Pierre Poilievre, Rebecca Schulz, Recall Act, Rob Ashton, Taber-Warner, Tanille Johnston, Thomas Lukaszuk, Tony McQuail, United Conservative Party

Alberta Politics

Alberta separatism the biggest and most dangerous distraction of the year

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date December 21, 2025

The biggest distraction of the year is the fight over Alberta staying in Canada.

Premier Danielle Smith is walking a narrow line between Albertans who want a better deal with Ottawa and those who just want Alberta to outright leave Canada (or join the United States), though she has actively tipped the scales in favour of the separatists in her party.

The UCP has twice amended the Citizen Initiative Act this year. First to lower the number of signatures required to trigger a province-wide referendum and second to block the Chief Elections Officer from referring initiative questions to the courts to determine their constitutionality.

Alberta has long had a fringe separatist movement that has usually lived on the margins of the far-right, but today’s separatists are a deeply intrenched and active force inside Smith’s UCP. They showed their strength at the recent UCP AGM when Smith was booed after trumpeting her government’s memorandum of understanding about pipelines and the electrical grid with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government in Ottawa.

Danielle Smith’s wild ride. What to make of Alberta politics in 2025?

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date December 20, 2025

Premier Danielle Smith speaks at the Canada Strong & Free Networking Conference (formerly known as the Manning Centre) (source: Danielle Smith / Instagram)

As 2025 comes to an end, it’s hard to describe the past twelve months in Alberta politics, but Edmonton-Whitemud NDP MLA Rakhi Pancholi summed it up well in the opposition’s year-end press conference by describing it a “wild ride.”

It has been a chaotic 12 months in Alberta politics. Even for someone who pays very close attention to provincial politics, the pace of the past year was so fast and frantic that it has been hard to keep track. The recently ended fall session of the Legislature might have been one of the most chaotic in recent memory.

It’s clear that Premier Danielle Smith’s governing United Conservative Party is using a “flood the zone” strategy but there were many times when it looked like the government was just flying by the seat of its pants and no one was really in control of the political agenda.

And if it’s hard for political watchers to keep track, that means it’s probably almost impossible for normal Albertans to figure out what’s going on — and that’s the point. The strategy keeps the opposition off balance and doesn’t give them time to respond before the next big announcement or political controversy steals the attention of shrinking newsrooms and a fast paced social media eco-system.

Anyone familiar with the chaos of American politics will recognize this strategy because it’s employed almost hourly by President Donald Trump.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Adriana LaGrange, Airdrie-Cochrane, Alanna Smith, Alberta Coal Policy, Alberta Health Services, Alberta NDP, Alberta Party, Alberta Politics Substack, Alberta Prosperity Project, Alberta Separation Referendum, Alberta Separatism, Ben Shapiro, Best of Alberta Politics 2025, Cameron Davies, Canada Election Substack, Carrie Tait, Corb Lund, Danielle Smith, Daveberta Substack, Donald Trump, Edmonton-Castle Downs, Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Strathcona, Edmonton-Whitemud, Flood the Zone, Forever Canadian, Janis Irwin, Jeff Rath, Jeffrey Rath, Jordan Peterson, Matt Jones, Mickey Amery, Mitch Sylvestre, Naheed Nenshi, Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, Peter Guthrie, Progressive Tory Party of Alberta, Rakhi Pancholi, Real Talk, Republican Party of Alberta, Ryan Jespersen, Thomas Lukaszuk, United Conservative Party

Alberta Politics

4 ways Danielle Smith’s UCP could react to the Forever Canadian citizen initiative

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date December 2, 2025

Has Thomas Lukaszuk’s pro-Canada petition boxed in Danielle Smith on Alberta separatism?

If there is one big takeaway from last weekend’s United Conservative Party annual general meeting it’s that the separatist movement in Alberta is deeply intrenched in the governing party.

From jeers and cheers to at least half the board candidates endorsed by the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project getting elected, the weekend gathering was a showcase of how influential Alberta’s most prominent separatists are in Premier Danielle Smith‘s UCP.

Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith hopes pipeline deal with Mark Carney will quell separatist sentiments

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date November 29, 2025

Premier Danielle Smith will be able to walk into the United Conservative Party AGM this weekend triumphant about her pipeline deal with Prime Minister Mark Carney, and maybe even confident enough to consider calling an early provincial election in 2026, but she may get more jeers than cheers from some sections of her party who will be unhappy she was willing to have truck and trade with Carney (though I can guarantee that Steven Guilbeault’s resignation will get cheers).

“Danielle wanted lapdogs,” says influential separatist Jeffrey Rath

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date November 29, 2025

According to influential separatist Jeffrey Rath, one of the main spokespeople for the Alberta Prosperity Project, the UCP board of directors is to blame for blocking a separation debate at the AGM. Rath has openly criticized incumbent UCP President Rob Smith for casting the deciding vote against holding a debate about Alberta independence. A debate and vote on Alberta’s separation from Canada could have received overwhelming support from AGM delegates — making the UCP an official separatist party.

Is Naheed Nenshi ready to be the next Premier of Alberta?

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date November 18, 2025

Flashy new NDP ad gives a glimpse into what the NDP wants to fight for in the next election

Naheed Nenshi is ready. That’s the main message of a new campaign ad released by the Alberta New Democrats last week. The video reintroduces Nenshi to Albertans and tries to lay out some clear contrasts between his party and Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party.

The new ad is reportedly the result of the Alberta NDP’s new relationship with the US-based Fight Agency, the political consultants behind Zohran Mamdani’s wildly successful campaign to become the next Mayor of New York City. And it’s an impressive ad.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Airdrie-Cochrane, Alberta Election 2027, Alberta Municipalities, Alberta NDP, Alberta Party, Alberta Politics Substack, Alberta Separation Referendum, Alberta Separatism, Alex Hryciw, Amarjeet Sohi, Andrew Knack, Andrew MacKendrick, Better Edmonton Party, Calgary-Mountain View, Calgary-Peigan, Canada Election Substack, Dan Nielsen, Danielle Smith, Daveberta Substack, Devery Corbin, Dylan Bressey, Edmonton-Ellerslie by-election, Edmonton-Strathcona, Fight Agency, Heather Wilson, Kathleen Ganley, Kyall Glennie, Kyle Kasawski, Lesser Slave Lake, Lethbridge-West by-election, Mark Miller, Mike Burton, Mike Elliott, Mike Vivian, Naheed Nenshi, Omar Mohammad, Peter Guthrie, Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta, Rachel Notley, Reed Clark, Richard Corbin, Scott Sinclair, Sherwood Park, Tanya Fir, Tim Cartmell, UCP AGM 2025, United Conservative Party, Winston Pon, Zohran Mamdani

Alberta Politics

Separatists accuse Danielle Smith of purging UCP board

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date November 10, 2025

The United Conservative Party’s board elections are happening at its AGM at the end of November and the rhetoric is heating up from the party’s bustling separatist wing.

Alberta Prosperity Project co-founder Jeffrey Rath took to the internet to accuse “Danielle Smith’s Death Star team” of abusing their access to party membership lists to purge the party board of separatists.

Alberta is Recalling. UCP MLA Angela Pitt facing recall campaign in Airdrie-East

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date November 9, 2025

Airdire-East MLA Angela Pitt (source: Angela Pitt / Facebook)

Also: Look who’s running in the UCP AGM board elections

An MLA Recall law championed by United Conservative Party MLAs four years ago is coming back to haunt some of those politicians today.

A second recall campaign launched this month aims to recall UCP MLA Angela Pitt in her suburban Airdrie-East riding north of Calgary. Pitt is the second MLA to face a recall effort in recent weeks with a similar campaign being launched by constituents of Calgary-Bow UCP MLA and Minister of Education and Childcare Demetrios Nicolaides in October.

🎙️ Podcast: Unpacking Alberta’s political mystery

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 25, 2025

Medicine Lake in Jasper National Park (photo: Dave Cournoyer)

I’m Dave Cournoyer and this isn’t the Daveberta Podcast but it might be the next best thing.

A few weeks ago I joined my friend and former Daveberta Podcast co-host Ryan Hastman on his new podcast, the Alberta Edge, for a discussion about Alberta politics along with respected pollster Janet Brown.

I’m happy to share that episode of Alberta Edge with Daveberta subscribers today. Be sure to visit TheHub.ca and subscribe to Ryan’s podcasts.

Enjoy the show and thanks for listening.

Listen to the podcast episode on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Alberta Edge Podcast, Alberta Election Podcast, Alberta History, Alberta NDP, Alberta Politics Podcast, Alberta Politics Substack, Alberta Separation Referendum, Alberta Separatism, Canada Election Substack, Danielle Smith, Daveberta Podcast, Daveberta Substack, Janet Brown, Naheed Nenshi, Ryan Hastman, United Conservative Party

Alberta Politics

Alberta separatists march on the Legislature and UCP AGM

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 25, 2025

The steps of the Legislature are a busy place this week as supporters of Alberta separatism are promising a large pro-independence rally on October 25. The rally will feature speakers from the Alberta Prosperity Project including Jeffrey Rath, Dennis Modry and Mitch Sylvestre, restaurant owner, podcaster and COVID-19 restrictions opponent Chris Scott, and former UCP nomination candidate Tanya Clemens.

Describing the rally as the first battle in the fight for an independent Alberta, Sylvestre told separatist supporters in a rambling video posted by the APP yesterday that “before we have to pay in blood we have to pay in time because Communism always comes in on a promise and leaves with a bullet.”

Sylvestre is the president of the UCP constituency association in the Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul riding and is the proponent of the court-delayed citizen initiative to hold a province-wide referendum asking the question “Do you agree that the Province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province in Canada?”

Forever Canadian petition rumoured to have collected more than 300,000 pro-Canada signatures

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 24, 2025

Former cabinet minister Thomas Lukaszuk and his Forever Canadian Unity Bus (source: Thomas Lukaszuk / Facebook)

Former Progressive Conservative cabinet minister Thomas Lukaszuk is on the final stretch of his “Unity Bus” tour to collect signatures for the Forever Canadian petition that asks the simple question “Do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada?”

Lukaszuk’s question requires 293,976 in-person signatures in order to be approved and sent to an MLA committee to be considered for a province-wide referendum, but there are rumours that the pro-Canada campaign’s more than 4,000 volunteers have already collected more than 300,000 signatures.

Teachers on strike in Alberta!

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 9, 2025

Teachers and supporters after their daily morning picket near the Walterdale Bridge in Edmonton (photo credit: Brad Lafortune)

More than 51,000 teachers launched the largest strike the history of their profession in Alberta

Schools are empty this week as more than 51,000 Alberta teachers in public, Catholic and Francophone schools launched the largest strike the history of their profession in Alberta.

The strike comes shortly after members of the Alberta Teachers’ Association overwhelmingly rejected a new contract for a second time in less than six months, with more than 90% voting against the proposal in the final days of September.