Following out successful first #yegvote Google Hangout a few weeks ago, Mack Male, Ryan Hastman, and I gathered online for the second #yegvote Google Hangout focusing on this October’s municipal elections in Edmonton. In this week’s hangout, we chatted about everything from the strategies of the three main mayoral candidates, the fluoride debate sparked by a fourth mayoral candidate, and some of the competitive city council races.
As the campaign period approaches, we are planning to have more frequent weekly #yegvote Google Hangouts and hope to have some special guests join us along the way.
Tonight, I joined Ryan Hastman and Mack Male on Edmonton’s first #yegvote Google Hangout on the topic of this October’s municipal election. Over the course of 50 minutes, we discussed the hotly contested mayoral race, some of the interesting open city council races, and issues that could define this year’s election campaign.
If you missed the live hangout, you can watch the archived video below or on EdmontonPolitics.com.
I feel our first hangout was a success and, with much more municipal election news to talk about, we are planning to host more in the near future. Stay tuned!
On another topic, I will soon publish a post with some thoughts on this week’s devastating floods in southern Alberta and some of the party and personal politics occurring behind the scenes.
Political watchers may remember Mr. Togneri as the aide to federal Conservative cabinet minister Christian Paradiswho, in 2010, resigned over his alleged meddling in at least four different access-to-information requests.
Also recently migrated to Alberta is Mike Feenstra, who was previously employed as spokesperson for Ontario’s Liberal Minister of Natural Resources and Minister of Education. Mr. Feenstra is now employed as the Press Secretary in Energy Minister Ken Hughes‘ office.
If there was a Liberal Party heartland in Alberta, it would be located in the boundaries of Edmonton-Gold Bar. The east central Edmonton constituency is the longest Liberal held constituency in the province, having elected Liberal MLAs since the 1986 election.
Represented by popular Alderman Bettie Hewes from 1986 until 1997, Gold Bar’s current MLA Hugh MacDonald was first elected in 1997. Some call him salt of the earth, others may call him obsessed, but over his 14 years in office Mr. MacDonald has undoubtably been one of the hardest working MLAs in the opposition benches. Last month, Mr. MacDonald announced that he would be retiring from politics when the next election is called.
The big question is who will succeed Mr. MacDonald. While the chatting class has quietly chitted and chatted about big name long-shot candidates like Councillor Ben Henderson or former AUPE President Dan MacLennan, the chatterers had kept their voices low until an odd choice and potential star candidate recently declared her intentions to join the contest.
Josipa Petrunic
Currently residing in Cambridge, UK to complete a research fellowship, Josipa Petrunic is planning to seek the Liberal Party nomination in Gold Bar.
Incredibly articulate and well-spoken, Ms. Petrunic chaired the recent Liberal Party leadership contest that saw former PC MLA Raj Sherman defeat Mr. MacDonald. As moderator at the leadership candidate forums Ms. Petrunic was many times the most impressive person on the stage.
She may be new to electoral politics in Edmonton, but Ms. Petrunic is no pushover. A Liberal candidate in Calgary-East in last May’s federal election, Ms. Petrunic’s candidacy grabbed headlines after incumbent Member of Parliament Deepak Obhrai accused her of being “a visitor from Toronto.”
This rallying cry may become familiar to voters in Gold Bar if Ms. Petrunic wins her party’s nomination. The truth is that while she lived abroad, Calgary was her family’s home.
When contacted by email, Ms. Petrunic was quick to certify her connection to Edmonton, calling Gold Bar a community that she considers a home and an area that she will be moving to in December 2011.
She is planning to move to Edmonton to take up a fellowship at the University of Alberta that is in the process of being approved. At the University, she would conduct research that focuses on a comparative history of engineering techniques in bitumen extraction.
“Moving back to Edmonton is a homecoming for me,” Ms. Petrunic wrote. “In 2000, I moved to Gold Bar specifically, as I was a university student in the French immersion program at the Faculté Saint-Jean.”
“I then moved to the north side of the riding a year later, when I got a job as a journalist at the Edmonton Journal. That journalism job was crucial to my career because the Journal gave me the by-lines I needed to move on to the Globe and Mail a year later, where I won a national journalism award,” wrote Ms. Petrunic.
Reflecting on the upcoming contest in Gold Bar, NDP organizer Lou Arabsaid “MacDonald’s departure, along with the low poll numbers the Alberta Liberals are experiencing at the moment, creates a great opportunity for the NDP to take this seat. But it won’t be easy.”
Mr. Arab managed the campaign of the area’s Public School Trustee Sarah Hoffman in October 2010.
In the recent federal election, NDP MP Linda Duncan received 45% of the votes in the area compared to 50% for Conservative candidate Ryan Hastman. The fresh contacts, new donors, and sign locations gathered during the federal vote could help boost the campaign of already nominated NDP candidate Marlin Schmidt.
“The combination of Linda’s decisive win in the federal election, the Liberals’ flagging fortunes, and Hugh MacDonald stepping down have created an excellent opportunity for the NDP in this riding,” said Mr. Schmidt.
Other parties are also keeping their eye on Gold Bar.
“Judging by history I feel that Gold Bar voters, some of the most active in the province, will choose their next MLA based more on personal qualities than party affiliation,” said Leslie Bush, a member of the local Alberta Party constituency association.
The Progressive Conservatives have scheduled their local nomination meeting for Wednesday, January 25, 2012. Past candidate David Dorward has said he will take the next two weeks to decide whether he will seek the nomination. Mr. Dorward placed second to Mayor Stephen Mandel in the 2010 municipal election.
When asked about her chances in the campaign, Ms. Petrunic wrote “if the nomination goes my way, there’s a campaign storm on the horizon. And I plan to be at its epi-centre.”
Past Election Results in Edmonton-Gold Bar
2008
Hugh MacDonald, L – 6,279
David Dorward, PC – 5,261
Sherry McKibben, NDP – 1,923
David Zylstra, Grn – 525
2004
Hugh MacDonald, L – 8,798
Manjit Dhaliwal, PC – 2,572
Keith Turnbull, NDP – 1,967
Delmar Hunt, AA – 538
Dave Dowling, Ind – 167
The Wildrosers early attack ads are a page out of the federal Conservative Party election campaign textbook, which should not come as a surprise considering that Ms. Smith has surrounded herself with federal Tory activists, including Vitor Marciano, William McBeath, Ryan Hastman, and Steven Dollansky.
The most obvious differences between Ms. Redford and successfultargets of federal Conservative smear campaigns are that:
1) she is not a Liberal, she is a Conservative
2) the PCs have a massive majority government in the Assembly and are still the best-organized and most well-funded political organization in the province, and
3) I believe that Albertans have generally been impressed with what they have seen of her so far.
Is it too early for the opposition parties to be lobbing grenades at the yet to be sworn-in Premier Redford? Ms. Redford was selected as leader at around 1:30am on October 2 and at 4:45pm, Wildrose attack dog Rob Anderson had already sent out a media release criticizing her. Always a gentleman, Mr. Anderson later tweeted that he would take a break from attacking Ms. Redford on Wednesday so that she could attend her mother’s funeral. How compassionate of Mr. Anderson.
Wildrose MLA Rob Anderson's October 5 tweet.
With the next general election expected within six months, the Wildrosers have decided to strike a negative tone, starting with attack ads and releasing a list of forty mistakes they say that the PCs have made during their forty years in government. The PCs have made many mistakes, but Albertans will reject the negative tone of the Wildrosers just as they have rejected the negative tone of the other opposition parties year after year. It is not enough to just remind Albertans that the Tories have become a monument to institutional mediocrity after forty years in government. Albertans know that because they voted for the PCs. Opposition parties need to take an extra step to give Albertans compelling and positive reasons to support them at the polls, something the Wildrosers have failed to do.
Not to be outdone by the Wildrose attacks against Ms. Redford, the NDP joined the fray. On Monday morning, NDP leader Brian Mason attacked Ms. Redford for delaying the fall sitting of the legislature, which was scheduled to begin on October 25, and the appointment of Alberta Health Services chairman Ken Hughes to her transition team. While both criticisms were valid, they were never meant to be “constructive” as Mr. Mason claimed on his blog the next day.
Unlike the opposition parties, who rely heavily on the daily Question Period to get their media hits during the legislative session, I believe that it was perfectly reasonable for Ms. Redford to want more than 15 days to prepare a legitimate legislative agenda. Regardless of what I may believe, Ms. Redford took the opposition advice, and to Mr. Mason’s surprise, announced that there will be a fall sitting.
Meanwhile, Ontario conservative blogger Stephen Taylor spun the Wildrose talking points this week claiming that Ms. Redford is the product of a labour union conspiracy, because of the support she received from front-line education and health care workers during the campaign. Maybe the view from Ottawa is blurred, but Mr. Taylor’s argument is silly when you take into account that most of these front-line workers probably regularly vote for the PC Party anyway.
Edmonton Journal columnist Graham Thomson pointed out early this week that Ms. Redford’s ‘honeymoon,’ a period that is traditionally given to new political leaders to allow them to settle into their new job, has been cut short by the opposition attacks. I predict these early aggressive tactics will only backfire on the opposition.
Every Albertan knows what is is like to start a new job and how bad it feels to get criticized before you even have a chance to started. No one likes the jerk who criticizes them before they have a chance to get familiar with the job. Hardline supporters of the opposition parties will rise to support their leaders attacks, but as the Wildrosers ads say, Albertans support integrity and democracy, but they also support fairness and don’t like jerks.
As hundreds of party members meet at their annual general meeting in Calgary this weekend, political observers may have noticed a quiet marketing shift that has seen the Wildrose Alliance drop the word “Alliance” from their logo on their website and url in their press releases (using wildrose.ca instead).
It also puts behind them a bizarre period of their party’s history when a splinter group led by Rob James and Link Byfield left the Paul Hinman led Alberta Alliance to form the Wildrose Party. The two parties merged once again in the months before the 2008 provincial election under the banner of the Wildrose Alliance.
It is an interesting visual shift as that party now led by Danielle Smith prepares for an election, which is expected to be held soon after the Progressive Conservatives choose a new leader in September 2011.
Former Edmonton-Strathcona Conservative candidate Ryan Hastman is joining the Wildrose political staff in an election readiness role. Popular talk radio host Mike Blanchard is seeking the Wildrose nomination in Calgary-Buffalo. Mr. Blanchard had sought the nomination in Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill but was defeated by Roy Alexander.
The NDP surge seen in other parts of the country did not manifest itself in Alberta. While Jack Layton‘s Party surged in Quebec, and increased their caucus numbers in British Columbia, Ontario and the Maritimes, the NDP only elected one MP in Alberta, dashing hopes that the party had in three Edmonton ridings. The NDP placed second province-wide with 16.8% of the vote, increasing their total by 4.1% since the 2008 election.
The Liberal Party took a historical beating in every province yesterday save Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island and that Party fell to a pathetic 9.3% province-wide vote in Alberta. No one expected the Liberals to be strong in Alberta, but less than one in ten Albertans voted for the Liberal Party in yesterday’s election.
The Conservatives maintained their dominance in Alberta and elected 27 of 28 MPs, while receiving support of 66.8% of voters province-wide.
Federal NDP candidates Lewis Cardinal, Linda Duncan, and Ray Martin at an April 2011 rally.
Edmonton-Strathcona MP Linda Duncan was re-elected with a clear mandate of 26,134 votes (53% of the vote) over her Conservative Party opponent Ryan Hastman, who earned 19,755 votes (40% of the total vote). The Conservatives had hoped to reclaim this riding, which they held until Ms. Duncan’s upset victory against Rahim Jaffer in 2008. Instead the ridings voters rejected the Conservative Blue wave that swept Alberta and granted Ms. Duncan the first majority vote that any MP from Edmonton-Strathcona has received since 1984.
In Edmonton-East, a riding the NDP has hoped to succeed in, former MLA Ray Martin increased his vote share from the 2008 election, but it was not enough to defeat incumbent Conservative Peter Goldring. Mr. Goldring managed to finish almost 7,000 votes ahead of Mr. Martin. This was Mr. Martin’s fourth attempt to win a seat in Parliament since 1997.
In Edmonton-Centre, the NDP dislodged the Liberals in the contest for second place, while Conservative MP Laurie Hawn finished with 47% support. Mr. Hawn finished around 9,000 votes ahead of his nearest opponent, the hardworking NDP candidate Lewis Cardinal. The Liberal candidate Mary MacDonald had waged an aggressive campaign in the riding, but failed to beat her Party’s national downward trend.
The Conservatives elected two rookie MPs in Alberta yesterday, Michelle Rempel in Calgary-Centre North and Jim Nation Hillyer in Lethbridge.
Levels of Twitter-ability among some local election candidates varies. While some candidates, like Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont Conservative candidate Mike Lake, Edmonton-Strathcona Conservative Ryan Hastman, and Edmonton-Centre Liberal Mary MacDonald, have or are beginning to demonstrate an more nuanced understanding of Twitter, the social media literacy of most candidates appears to be lacking. It makes me wonder if some candidates just checked off “social media” on their campaign do-list, but are not sure why they are actually doing it.
Most candidates have begun their Tweets and Facebook Pages to blast out one-way messages about 1) how great their campaign is going, 2) how awesome their party leaders are, 3) how amazing their party’s policies are, or 4) how terrible the other parties/leaders and their policies are for Canada. For example, only three of the last 50 tweets posted by Edmonton-Centre Conservative MP Laurie Hawn have been responses to other twitter users. The remaining 47 tweets fit into the previously mentioned four categories.
Yelling loudly in a room packed with people
Operating in a one-way social media bubble obviously lessens the chance of making embarrassing mistakes, but makes for a boring Twitter feed. A friend described recently, sending one way Tweets is kind of like standing in a crowded room and yelling. Believe me, election candidates, you probably do not want to be “that guy.”
Media tweets
At least in the first two weeks of the Federal Election campaign, I have found many members of the national media to be the most engaging and interesting people to follow on Twitter. Follow @Kady@ScottFeschuk and @DavidAkin to see what I mean.
Follow the election on Twitter
To follow the election tweets on Twitter, #yegfed for Edmonton federal election news, #elxn41 or #cdnpoli for Canada-wide election news.
Creative online ads
On a more cheeky and creative side of the online campaign, both the Liberals and NDP have created two ads that have caught the attention of some online users:
Hey Stephen Harper, stop creeping me on Facebook!
NDP Hamster Wheel Ad
Remember, social media is a tool.
As I have written before, it is important to remember that social media is a tool. Social media is an important additional tool to complement traditional campaigning, but it does not replace actually connecting citizens in-person.
Calling on his supporters to “paint Alberta blue” on May 2nd, Mr. Harper singled out Edmonton-Strathcona candidate Ryan Hastman, who is running in the election against NDP MP Linda Duncan. Mr. Harper’s campaign speech weighed heavily in predictable partisan rhetoric about low-taxes and how the “coalition” of opposition parties in the House of Commons forced this election.
In the land where federal election results are typically much ado about nothing, the election scheduled for May 2, 2011 is not much of an exception. As the Liberals and NDP fill ballots across the province with last minute paper candidates, with few exceptions Alberta remains safe electoral territory for the Conservative Party of Canada.
If any riding in Alberta changes hands in this federal election, it will be Edmonton-Strathcona. It is the only riding represented by an opposition Member of Parliament and Conservatives have made it their goal to unseat NDP MP Linda Duncan, who defeated Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer by a slim 463 votes in 2008. After campaigning for two years, the Conservatives hope that candidate Ryan Hastman is the one who can do the job.
As the NDP’s Environment Critic in Ottawa, Ms. Duncan has gone against the grain of other Alberta MP colleagues by criticizing the oil sands and its impact on the environment. In a campaign stop in Edmonton this weekend, NDP leader Jack Layton only briefly mentioned the environment, suggesting that he may have been avoiding the issue while in Alberta (he also did not take media questions while in the province).
The Green Party has nominated Environmental Economics and Policy studentAndrew Fehr, who faces the challenge of convincing Green-leaning voters that actually voting for a Green Party is a better choice than a strategic vote for Ms. Duncan. The Liberals have not yet nominated a candidate and appear to be a non-factor in this contest.
Federal NDP candidates Lewis Cardinal, Linda Duncan, and Ray Martin.
The highly polarized geopolitics of this riding have the Conservatives drawing strong support from polls in the east and NDP drawing strong support from polls in the west. Both candidates will lean heavy on financial and organizational support from their national parties, making this riding too close to call.
The irony is that the NDP could increase their vote total across Edmonton at the same time they could lose the only riding they currently hold.
In Edmonton-Centre the real contest to watch is not to defeat door-knocking/hand-shaking/baby-kissing election-machine Conservative MP Laurie Hawn. The real contest is for second place. The Liberals hope their candidate Mary MacDonald can regain the support they lost in the last election and maintain their position as the de facto alternative to the Conservatives in this riding. The NDP are hoping that their candidate Lewis Cardinal can help build the kind of support needed to cut the Liberals down to third place. This is similar to the multi-election strategy that helped the NDP make gains in Strathcona.
The Liberals held this riding from 1993 until 2006 when Mr. Hawn defeated Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan. Mr Hawn’s vote share decreased in 2008 while his margin widened substantially as the Liberal vote collapsed. The Greens have nominated 2008 candidate David Parker and also running is Mikkel Paulson, leader of the Pirate Party of Canada.
Edmonton-East MP Peter Golding is what I would refer to as a wall-paper backbencher. Since he was first elected in 1997, Mr. Goldring seems to only pop into the media spotlight when taking up odd causes like exposing the “truth about Louis Riel” or joining the bizarre drive to get the obscure Caribbean Islands of Turks and Caicos to join Canada.
The NDP have steadily increased their support in this riding since the 2004 election and former MLA Ray Martin is hoping that this trend continues. Mr Martin is an NDP institution in northeast Edmonton, having been elected as an MLA from 1982 to 1993, a public school board trustee from 2001 to 2004, and once again as an MLA from 2004 to 2008. This is the fourth time Mr Martin has sought a seat in Parliament since 1997. The Liberals have nominated IT management consultant Shafik Ruda.
Edmonton-Sherwood Park was the second closest race in 2008, when Independent Conservative James Ford nearly defeated Conservative candidate Tim Uppal. It was a city mouse versus county mouse game as many voters in Strathcona County and Fort Saskatchewanwere upset with the Conservative nomination process that led to County Councillor Jacquie Fenske defeat and allowed Edmontonian Mr. Uppal to win the nomination.
Mr. Ford is running again and the Liberals and NDP, represented by Rick Szostak and Mike Scott, are expected to play minor supporting roles in this contest. The big question is whether voters in the county still feel that Mr. Uppal’s candidacy is the great injustice they believed it to be in 2008.
NDP leader Jack Layton at a 2008 campaign rally in Edmonton. Mr. Layton will be in Edmonton tomorrow.
Federal Election
Alberta looks like safe Conservative Party territory with the exception of the eclectic Edmonton-Strathcona, where NDP MP Linda Duncan will fend off a strong challenge from Conservative Ryan Hastman. NDP leader Jack Layton will make his first campaign stop in Edmonton at a downtown rally tomorrow. A recent Postmedia poll showed the Conservatives leading support in Alberta with 54%, followed by the Liberals at 23%, the NDP at 17%, and the Greens with 5%. These are unusually high levels of support for the opposition parties and I would expect future polls to show lower support.
HQCA advisory committee
The appointment of former Liberal Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan and retired Judge Allan Wachowich to an advisory panel to the Health Quality Council of Alberta may weaken opposition calls for a full Public Inquiry into the intimidation of health care professionals. The Liberals have made it their key issue in the spring session and the Friends of Medicare are preparing to rally for it tomorrow, but the presence of the province’s highest profile Liberal will make it difficult for Liberal leader David Swann to criticize the HCQA investigation.
Stelmach comes out
The Edmonton Journal’s Graham Thomson has written an interesting article about the new energy Premier Ed Stelmach has found since announcing his resignation in February 2010.
Wildrose fundraising
The Wildrose Alliance released their 2010 fundraising numbers showing that party took in almost $1.8 million in revenue, with $1.4 million in donations from over 5,100 donors. As mandated by the Elections Finances Act all parties are required to submit their annual financial contribution statements by March 31 of each calendar year.
Koch lobbyist in Alberta
The Alberta Federation of Labour has asked Premier Stelmach to reaffirm his government’s commitment to Collective Bargaining after discovering that Koch Companies of Wichita, Kansas has hired a lobbyist in Alberta. Koch Companies is owned by the billionaire Koch brothers, who have donated copious amounts of money to Tea Party Republicans, including Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Governor Walker’s government recently stripped workers in that state of their rights to collective bargaining.
Alberta Party goes Obama
The Alberta Party is bringing in Jeff Blodgett to help train their constituency association volunteers on April 1 in Calgary. Mr. Blodgett is the Founding Director of Wellstone Action! and was the Minnesota State Director for President Barack Obama‘s election campaign in 2008.
Gearing up for the seemingly inevitable federal election, political parties have been holding a flurry of nomination meetings to complete their slates of candidates in Alberta.
Conservatives
Dominating the political scene in Alberta, the Conservatives have a fully nominated slate of 28 candidates including 25 incumbent Members of Parliament. New candidates include Ryan Hastman in the NDP held riding of Edmonton-Strathcona, Michelle Rempel in the vacant Calgary-Centre North riding, and Jim Hillyer in the Lethbridge riding being vacated by the retiring Rick Casson.
Best Alberta showings in 2008 election:
Crowfoot: 39,342 (82%)
Macleod: 35,328 (77%)
Calgary-Southeast 41,425 (74%)
Wetaskiwin 32,528 (77%)
Vegreville-Wainwright 34,493 (77%)
Liberals
The Liberals have only around half of their slate of candidates nominated in Alberta. Longstanding nominated candidates include Mary MacDonald in Edmonton-Centre and Kevin Taron in Edmonton-St. Albert. Recently nominated candidates are Stephen Randall in Calgary-Centre North, Cam Stewart in Calgary-Northeast and Karen Young in Fort McMurray-Athabasca.
Best Alberta showings in 2008 election:
Edmonton-Centre 12,661 (27%)
Calgary-West 13,204 (22%)
Calgary-Northeast 7,433 (20%)
Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont 7,709 (19%)
Calgary-Centre 8,402 (18%)
New Democrats
The NDP have or are about to nominate the full-slate of candidates in Alberta. The party appears to be focusing their resources behind three candidates: Alberta MP Linda Duncan in Edmonton-Strathcona, former MLA Ray Martin in Edmonton-East, and Lewis Cardinal in Edmonton-Centre.
In a flurry of nomination meetings held over the past few weeks, the NDP have nominated Berend Wilting in Fort McMurray-Athabasca,Lyndsey Henderson in Westlock-St. Paul, Al Brown in Calgary-East, Colin Anderson in Calgary-Nose Hill, Kirk Oates in Calgary-Southeast, Collette Singh in Calgary-Northeast), Shawna Knowles in Calgary-West, Nadine Baileyin Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont and Mike Scott in Edmonton-Sherwood Park. The NDP have also scheduled nomination meetings for March 24 in Calgary-Centre (candidate Garry Lehmann) and Calgary-Centre North (candidate Paul Vargis), March 25 in Edmonton-Spruce Grove (candidate Catherine Chaulk-Stokes), and March 29 in Vegreville-Wainwright (candidate Ray Stone) and Yellowhead (candidate Mark Wells).
Best Alberta showings in 2008 election:
Edmonton-Strathcona 20,103 (43%)
Edmonton-East 13,318 (32%)
Edmonton-St. Albert 8,045 (16%)
Calgary-Centre North 7,413 (15%)
Edmonton-Centre 6,912 (15%)
Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont 6,297 (15%)
Greens
The Green Party has nominated 21 of 28 candidates in Alberta.
Best Alberta showings in 2008 election:
Calgary-Centre 7,778 (17%)
Calgary-Centre North 7,392 (15%)
Wild Rose 6,390 (13%)
Calgary-West 6,722 (11%)
Calgary-East 3,403 (11%)
Opposition parties hope to turn the death of Edmonton’s Expo 2017 bid into a major campaign issue.
The Christian Heritage Party of Canada election campaign sign near Morinville, Alberta in the Westlock-St. Paul riding.
Federal opposition parties are preparing for the next federal election and nominating candidates in Alberta ridings where they think breakthroughs are possible.
The federal Liberals ended 2010 with a meeting in Edmonton-East selecting Shafik Ruda as their candidate of choice against five-term Member of Parliament Peter Goldring and former NDP MLA Ray Martin. Liberals in Calgary-East are expected to nominate Josipa Petrunic on January 18 to challenge Tory MP Deepak Obhrai. In late 2010, the Conservatives acclaimed party insider Michelle Rempel as their candidate in Calgary-Centre North, recently vacated by former Environment Minister Jim Prentice.
The federal Liberals slate in Alberta is expected to be bolstered when a high-profile candidate announces their intentions to stand against Labour Minister Rona Ambrose in Edmonton-Spruce Grove. Alberta political watchers have been abuzz with rumours that Ruth Kelly, publisher of Alberta Venture magazine and former President of Edmonton’s Chamber of Commerce, will carry the Liberal Party banner against Minister Ambrose. The rumours began after Ms. Kelly’s became an outspoken critics of the Government of Canada’s denial of funding for Edmonton’s bid for the 2017 Expo (and the large pile of federal infrastructure funding that was expected to come with a successful bid).
While I have remained largely indifferent to the 2017 Expo bid, it is easy to understand the frustration of the people who committed their time and energy towards the bid only to have political powers in Ottawa deny the funds needed to make it a reality. Minister Ambrose will be difficult to defeat, but I am glad that the Conservatives might actually have to pay some attention to and focus some of their campaign resources on a riding that they would likely take for granted.
A shift in financial and volunteer resources could also make a difference in the expected competitive races in Edmonton-Strathcona between NDP MP Linda Duncan and Tory candidate Ryan Hastman, and in Edmonton-Centre where Liberal Mary MacDonald and New Democrat Lewis Cardinal are challenging Tory MP Laurie Hawn.
A mail flyer sent out by Edmonton-Centre Conservative MP Laurie Hawn in Fall 2010.
Does Edmonton have a champion in Ottawa?
It is really hard to tell sometimes. Our Members of Parliament can be often seen at events around our city (some more than others), but none of them have distinguished themselves as Edmonton’s strong voice in the national capital.
Edmonton has its share of competent representatives in our local batch of current MPs, like Mike Lake, James Rajotte, Tim Uppal, and Mr. Hawn, but none of them have succeeded in carrying the kind of political clout that has defined Edmonton’s previous prominent champions in Ottawa.
In the recent past, our city has sent prominent voices like Jim Edwards, Deb Grey and Anne McLellan to the House of Commons and as one local columnist has suggested, we have not had a champion since. Edmonton’s lone opposition MP, Ms.Duncan, was elected with high expectations in October 2008, but has been somewhat of a ghost in our city ever since.
Are federal party leaders paying attention of Edmonton? Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, NDP leader Jack Layton, and Green Party leader Elizabeth Mayhave visited Edmonton a number of times in the past year. Prime Minister Stephen Harper visited Edmonton this year for the first time since 2008.
– Finance Minister Ted Morton is not ruling out the idea of a Provincial Sales Tax for Alberta. Premier Ed Stelmach says it will not happen as long as he is in office. The Government of Alberta remains in a $4.7 billion deficit.
– Over 500 people packed a hall in Vegreville to voice their opposition to the construction of new electrical transmission lines. Although he is the MLA for this area and was invited to the meeting, Premier Stelmach declined to attend.
– Michael Walters is the new Executive Director of the Alberta Party. Mr. Walters previously served and excelled in his role as Lead Organizer for the Greater Edmonton Alliance from 2004 to 2010.
– Former City Councillors Michael Phair and Patricia Mackenzie have written an excellent opinion-editorial in the Edmonton Journal explaining why they believe redeveloping the City Centre Airport lands will benefit Edmonton.
– Reboot 3.0 is scheduled for November 5 and 6 in Edmonton.
– Jeffrey Coffman is seeking election to Lethbridge City Council. Mr. Coffman previously served as an Alderman from 1995 to 1998 and later as Chief of Staff to MLA Ken Nicol. Bridget Mearns, daughter of Lethbridge-East Liberal MLA Bridget Pastoor, has announced her campaign for Lethbridge City Council. Also in the running is long-time conservative activist and college professor Faron Ellis.
– What motivated Wildrose leader Danielle Smith to jump to the defence of a failing private health clinic?
– Quebec Conservative MP Maxime Bernier has recaped his summer visit to Edmonton and his encounters with Wildrose leader Ms. Smith and Edmonton-Strathcona Conservative candidate Ryan Hastman. Mr. Bernier’s former colleague Ken Epp is now the vice-president of the Strathcona Wildrose Alliance association. Mr. Epp represented the Elk Island and Edmonton-Sherwood Park constituencies from 1993 to 2006.
– Michael Butler has been acclaimed as the federal Liberal candidate in Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont. Mr. Butler has ran twice for the NDP in 2008, federally in Mill Woods-Beaumont and provincially in Edmonton-Rutherford. The riding has been represented by Conservative MP Mike Lake since 2006 after the retirement of long-time Liberal MP David Kilgour.
One year ago today, just over 50% of Albertans made their way to the polls to vote in the 2008 Canadian Federal Election. While just over two years since the previous election, last October saw some Edmontonians (and Strathconans) paint their electoral map with a little more diversity of colours (even if it only resulted in one actual change in electoral representation). A year out, here is a look at some of the more interesting ridings from 2008 and what the electoral races may shape up to look like in the next election.
I expected closer results in this riding during the last election, but if only one thing were clear about the 2008 election, it is that the Liberals under Stephane Dion had zero momentum in western Canada. After narrowly defeating Liberal MP Anne McLellan in 2006, a low voter turnout allowed Conservative Laurie Hawn to widen his margin of victory into a comfortable lead in 2008 when facing off against consumer advocate and Liberal candidate Jim Wachowich (the total voter turnout dropped by over eleven thousand votes and over 9,000 Liberal voters stayed home, dropping that party’s support by over 9,000 votes between 2006 and 2008).
This riding has been the focus of both Reform/Canadian Alliance/Conservative and Liberal resources since 1993 and the prospect of three strong candidates in the next election could make this Edmonton riding a centre of attention once again. Hawn is a strong campaigner, but he is now facing two hard working challengers who have already began campaigning door-to-door. Liberal Mary MacDonald is a lawyer, Ph.D., former Deputy Chief of Staff to McLellan, and former provincial Liberal candidate. New Democrat Lewis Cardinal is an educator, activist, and former candidate for City Council. Some people will inevitably bemoan the potential for vote-splitting between the two main challengers, but I am looking forward to watching three strong candidates make this riding competitive in the next election. If Edmonton-Centre becomes home to a serious three-way race, I would wager that anything could happen.
This riding could be one to watch in the next election. With the collapse of the Liberal-vote in 2008 (likely caused by the previously mentioned Dion-factor and the last minute withdrawal of candidate Jim Jacuta), former MLA Ray Martin was able to capitalize and boost the NDP vote by 13% to a solid second place finish. The riding has been represented by MP Peter Goldring since 1997, but the eclectic collection of citizens in this riding supported NDP MP Ross Harvey in 1988 and Liberal MP Judy Bethel in 1993.
Although Goldring has perfected the art of invisibility as a backbench MP, he still hold an incumbency advantage and I wouldn’t underestimate Martin, who has once again been nominated as the NDP candidate in the next election. A seasoned elections veteran, Martin’s political drive has led him to be elected the MLA for Edmonton-Norwood from 1982 to 1993, Edmonton Public Schools Trustee from 2001 to 2004, MLA for Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview from 2004 to 2008, and Leader of Alberta’s Official Opposition from 1986 to 1993. I have also heard that along with Edmonton-Strathcona, the NDP are planning to focus much of their resources on this riding, which was their second strongest Alberta finish in 2008.
In 2008, Independent conservative James Ford rode a strong wave of Strathcona County-concentrated discontent after a shady Conservative nomination process chose former Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont candidate Tim Uppal over local favorite Jacquie Fenske.
Ford’s strength led this riding to the second closest results in the province, but I wonder whether a second run by Ford would result in the same level of discontent. This has been a strong conservative riding and includes areas that are represented on a provincial level by Premier Ed Stelmach and Finance Minister Iris Evans. If the voters in this riding are now less offended by the internal party shenanigans than they were a year ago, I would imagine that they will return to a traditional Conservative voting pattern.
Edmonton-Strathcona
2008 results Linda Duncan, NDP – 20,103 (42.5%) Rahim Jaffer, Con – 19,640 (41.6%) Claudette Roy, Lib – 4,279 (9%) Jane Thrall, Grn – 3,040 (6.4%) Kevan Hunter, ML – 147 (0.3%)
A year ago today, NDP candidate Linda Duncan edged out long-time Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer in a close election race. Initially planning a comeback, Jaffer is now dealing with some personal issues in Ontario and the Conservatives have nominated Ottawa insider Ryan Hastman as their standard bearer. Both candidates and their teams have been busy canvassing door-to-door over the summer months in this extremely geo-politically polarized riding (as you can see by the poll results from the map above).
Since the last election, a number of people have noted to me that Duncan has become somewhat of a ghost in Edmonton. I will give Duncan the benifit of a doubt that she is still mounting the learning curve that all elected officials face during their first couple years in office, but I am sure that Hastman’s campaign will focus on this point.
Expect a flood of resources and high-profile MP visits to the riding from both the NDP and Conservatives to continue before the next election (NDP leader Jack Layton has visited this riding at least 4-5 times since October 2008). The collapse of the Liberal vote helped vault Duncan to her victory, but it shouldn’t be underestimated how strong her organization and her campaign momentum were in the last election. If she is successful in her next election, she will be the first NDP MP to be re-elected in Alberta’s history. The Liberals have yet to announce a candidate in this riding, but Michael Ignatieffspent the Canada Day long weekend in the riding.
