This week’s by-elections were as clear an indication as any that the divisive debate over Alberta’s separation from Canada is mostly an issue among rural conservatives in and outside of Smith’s UCP.
UCP candidate Tara Sawyer won the Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills riding with 61 percent, a drop of 14 points from the 2023 election, and most of that vote appears to have gone to the right-wing separatist Republican Party.
The Republicans had hoped their party leader, Cam Davies, could pull off a win inspired by separatist Gordon Kesler’s win in Olds-Didsbury in 1982 but when the votes were counted he placed third with 17 percent behind NDP candidate Bev Toews, who placed second with 20 percent.
Danielle Smith’s Alberta Next Panel looks a lot like a UCP re-election tour
Alberta is getting a bad deal and it’s always Ottawa’s fault. That’s Premier Danielle Smith’s key message in a 6 minute and 26 second long video posted on her social media channels on Tuesday.
Less that 24 hours after the polls closed in three provincial by-elections that saw voters deliver one win for Smith’s United Conservative Party and two wins for Naheed Nenshi’s NDP, the premier was ready to announce a new panel to hear people’s grievances about Ottawa and views on the provincial government taking control of immigration, which immigrants should have access to social services, and creating a provincial tax collection agency, provincial pension plan and provincial police force.
NDP leader Naheed Nenshi shares a stage with NDP MLAs at his by-election victory party on June 23, 2025 (source: Alberta NDP / YouTube)
UCP wins Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills but fails to make gains in Edmonton
The ballots have been counted in the provincial by-elections held yesterday and the results are: Status quo ante bellum.
Naheed Nenshi’s NDP held suburban Edmonton-Ellerslie and urban Edmonton-Strathcona, and Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party held rural Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills.
Then-leader of the Wildrose Party Danielle Smith at a press conference during the 2014 Edmonton-Whitemud by-election. (source: Dave Cournoyer)
Deciphering what happens in Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Strathcona, and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills could be interesting
The three by-elections happening on June 23 could have a big impact on Alberta politics, but maybe not in the way you might think. The results of the mid-term by-elections in urban Edmonton-Strathcona, suburban Edmonton-Ellerslie, and rural Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills are an important test for Alberta’s political leaders and the results could impact provincial politics in our province in different ways.
The Alberta Legislature Building in Edmonton (credit: Dave Cournoyer)
Big questions about Alberta politics on The Line Podcast
Any day I get to talk about Alberta politics is a good day, so I was thrilled to join freelance writer and The Line co-founder Jen Gerson on the latest episode of the The Line Podcastto talk about what’s happening in Alberta politics.
In the hour and ten minute long discussion, we dove into the growing undercurrent of separatist sentiment inside the United Conservative Party, the burgeoning Dodgy Contracts Scandal dogging Premier Danielle Smith’s government, the upcoming by-elections in Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Strathcona and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, and a big question many political watchers have been asking: where is NDP leader Naheed Nenshi?
Opposition shouldn’t panic – it should make smart changes
The three provincial by-elections are in full swing and the NDP are eager to have leader Naheed Nenshi join their MLAs in the Legislature. Two new polls will add extra urgency to the NDP’s efforts to hold on to two of those seats and have Nenshi hit the ground running when he is elected in Edmonton-Strathcona on June 23.
Despite implementing a political agenda much more radical than anything that was promised on May 29, 2023 and being dogged by controversial scandals and allegations of corruption, Smith’s UCP continues to hold it’s support in the province.
Smith is a deeply divisive figure in Alberta but she is a shrewd politician and skilled communicator who knows how to appeal to and govern with her party’s voters exclusively in mind, even if it sometimes puts her offside with most Albertans.
The Alberta NDP are scheduled to nominate a candidate in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills by-election on June 14, but rumours are circulating that Premier Danielle Smith could call that by-election along with two others in Edmonton-Ellerslie and Edmonton-Strathcona very soon.
The UCP announced last week that Alberta Grains chairperson Tara Sawyer had been appointed as the party’s candidate in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. Sawyer’s appointment happened without an open nomination race, which is likely an indication the UCP was concerned a pro-separatist candidate could possibly create a messy nomination contest in that rural central Alberta riding.
Voters only getting 2 more MLAs despite huge population boom
Alberta will have a new electoral map when the next provincial election is called. An Electoral Boundaries Commission has been named and will begin travelling the province next week to collect feedback from Albertans about how new riding boundaries should be drawn to reflect population changes since the last time the map was redrawn in 2017.
The Alberta Prosperity Project’s Jeffrey Rath shows off the separatist group’s proposed referendum question in Calgary (source: Facebook).
Is Premier Danielle Smith a separatist? Is the UCP a separatist party?
The biggest difference between today’s Alberta separatist push and past efforts is that today’s most vocal separatists are operating within the governing UCP. Premier Danielle Smith gave her tacit public support for these groups in an online video address earlier this month and she knows that any direct effort to try to stop it would turn those groups, which included some of the UCP’s most enthusiastic activists, against her.
Many of those enthusiastic separatists inside the UCP helped topple former Premier Jason Kenney in 2022 and propel Smith to victory in the leadership race that followed. Writer Jen Gerson cleverly described Smith’s situation through one rule of politics: you get ate by the dragon you ride in on.
Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi (source: Dave Cournoyer)
Also: Pierre Poilievre running in Battle River—Crowfoot by-election, gets unwelcome greetings from UCP VP
Naheed Nenshi’s speech was upbeat and touched on a lot of traditional NDP points about public health care, public education and rights for workers, but he was most animated when ripping into Premier Danielle Smith’s threat that the Liberal Party’s re-election would spark an unprecedented national unity crisis and her flirtation with Alberta separatists.
‘I will be damned if we ever let Danielle Smith tear the country down,’ Nenshi said. “Alberta’s New Democrats will always, always, always stand with the millions and millions of Canadians who believe in a stronger, more unified country,” Nenshi said.
“No more playing stupid separatist games with the future of our province! No more disrespecting Indigenous communities! No more disrespecting Albertans!”
Eva Kiryakos announced in a Facebook video last night that she was resigning as the UCP candidate in Calgary-South East because she was being “bullied” by someone who was threatening to “smear” her. It turned out that Kiryakos’ had made homophobic, transphobic, and Islamophobic comments on social media that somehow were not discovered when she was vetted as a UCP nomination candidate.
Kenney thanked Kiryakos for her “selfless” decision to step aside, but did not respond to the comments that led to her resignation.
Kiryakos was acclaimed as the UCP candidate in this district in November 2018 after two other competitors, including Cameron Davies, withdrew from the contest. Until her resignation, Kiryakos was running against Alberta Party MLA Rick Fraser, New DemocratHeather Eddy, Liberal candidate Leila Keith, and Alberta Independence Party candidate Richard Fontaine.
Until Kiryakos’ resignation, it appeared that the UCP had filled its slate of 87 candidates with the nomination of Sanjay Patel in Edmonton-Ellerslie and Heather Sworin in Edmonton-Mill Woods. The UCP is expected to appoint a new candidate to replace Kiryakos before the March 29, 2019 candidate nomination deadline.
Trustees call out leaders on education funding, Kenney reignites the GSA issue
Trustee Bridget Stirling speaks at a press conference in Edmonton (source: Twitter).
Trustees from Public and Catholic school boards across Alberta gathered in Calgary and Edmonton today to call on provincial political party leaders to explain how they plan to fund expected growth in student population in the public education system.
“Politicians who will not commit to more funding at a time when 15,000 new students will join our classrooms next year need to come clean that they really are planning to cut to Education” Edmonton Public School trustee Bridget Stirling said in a press release.
“We have not recovered from the Klein cuts of the 1990s. More students and fewer dollars is a recipe for a crisis in our classrooms. At the very bare minimum, all parties must commit to funding new student enrollment growth for the next year,” Stirling said.
NDP leader Rachel Notley stated that an NDP government would provide funds to help with the enrolment increases.
It is not clear to me if Kenney responded to the trustees’ challenge, but he did release his party’s education platform today, promising to reinforce standardized tests and lift the cap on the number of charter schools in Alberta and allow charter schools to own property. He also reopened the Gay-Straight Alliance debate by announcing plans to repeal protections implemented by the NDP that bars school administrators from notifying parents if their kids join one of the clubs (potentially outing gay kids to their parents).
The GSA issue created much grieffor the UCP over the past two years, so it is surprising to see Kenney reignite the issue during this election.
Notley announces big expansion of affordable childcare program
Notley announced her party’s plan to expand the pilot project $25/day childcare program to cover all childcare across Alberta. Notley said at an event at Calgary’s SPARK Centre that the plan would include adding 13,000 daycare spaces to the current 62,000 spaces in the province. With the youngest population in Canada, the cost and availability of childcare is a particularly important issue for many Albertans.
While I would have preferred the NDP be a little more ambitious, by subsidizing the entire cost of childcare, even at $25/day this kind of program would make a big difference in the lives of many Alberta families.
CBC reports that current UCP Caucus deputy chief of staff Matt Wolf, then director of issues management for Kenney’s campaign, communicated regularly with Callaway’s communications manager Cameron Davies, and at times Randy Kerr, who was working as Callaway’s campaign manager.
As director of issues management, Wolf was responsible for advising Kenney on the day-to-day campaign tactics and strategy of the leadership campaign.
“Callaway’s withdrawal was something that wasn’t necessarily negotiable,” Davies told CBC. “It was something that had been decided in a meeting in mid-July between Callaway and the Jason Kenney leadership team.”
The Star Edmonton reporters Kieran Leavitt and Emma McIntosh reported that Davies said that ‘Kenney had first hand knowledge of the Callaway kamikaze campaign, and attended a meeting at Callaway’s house where it was discussed in July 2017.’
Kenney has repeatedly denied allegations that Callaway was a stalking horse candidate and he most recently denied knowledge of collusion. He told reporters at a press conference on Friday that that he asked his staff in late 2018 whether they had any knowledge of the the Callaway campaign allegations. “The result of those inquiries was that no one was aware of, had heard anything about or had in any way participated in such activity,” Kenney said.
And Clare Clancy has reported that Postmedia has obtained an email from Wolf to the UCP Caucus sent today in which he writes that “I’ve made no secret about that for those who have asked.” The same Postmedia report says that Wolf has “gone home” and is not available for comment.
It is not clear whether “gone home” means Wolf was just not in the office at that minute or whether he has “gone home” to somewhere without wifi or cell phone signals for the duration of the election campaign.
Having one of Kenney’s senior advisors apparently leave on the eve of a provincial election call is not exactly the statement of confidence that UCP candidates and supporters will have been looking for today.
Collusion between the two leadership campaigns at this level is not illegal, but it is definitely not normal, certainly unethical and potentially a violation of the UCP’s Code of Conduct.
The questions of legality surround the sharing of campaign resources and donations made by individuals to Callaway’s campaign, and where that money could have originated, which is why the RCMP have been asked to investigate. It has been alleged that some donors were not donating their own money, which is a violation of the Election Finances and Contributions Disclosure Act. One donor to Callaway’s campaign has already been fined $3,500 by the Commissioner for violating the Act.
The whole Kenney-Callaway collusion scandal is bizarre mostly because, as anyone who was paying attention to Alberta politics in 2017 can attest, Kenney was the clear frontrunner in the UCP leadership race.
With 20-years of experience as an Ottawa politician and the strong backing of Canada’s Conservative establishment, Kenney had the networks, support, and money to win a race against Jean on his own, without Callaway.
But it appears that it may of not been enough for Kenney to just defeat Jean in the UCP leadership contest. Maybe Kenney’s campaign felt they needed Callaway in the race in order so that he could win so decisively that his position as leader of the UCP would be unquestionable in the face of a frequently unruly and fractious conservative movement in Alberta?
We do not have an answer to that question – and Kenney’s silence on the topic over the past two days is deafening.
Elections Commissioner Lorne Gibson has already issued fines of $15,000 against Callaway’s campaign manager and former UCP nomination candidate, Cameron Davies, and $3,500 against donor Karen Brown. And last week, UCP executive director Janice Harrington announced that Calgary-Beddington candidate Randy Kerr had been removed because he “was not forthright in responding to the Party’s inquiries regarding his financial contribution to the Jeff Callaway Leadership campaign.”
Scott Moe and Jason Kenney
The story comes the day after heavy-hitters from western Canada’s Conservative establishment, most notably Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and former prime minister Stephen Harper, rallied around Kenney following rumours that Jean was preparing to jump back into politics – with the Alberta Party or Freedom Conservative Party.
It turns out that Jean was either actually working with the Freedom Conservatives, as party leader Derek Fildebrandt claims, or was clumsily trying to position himself as a UCP leader-in-waiting in case Kenney’s leadership collapsed following the news of a potential RCMP investigation.
Wildrose leader Brian Jean campaigned with Derek Fildebrandt in Strathmore-Brooks on the first day of the 2015 election. (Photo from Brian Jean’s Facebook Page).
As Premier Rachel Notleynoted to the media today, if the leader of another major political party was tied up in such an investigation, the UCP would be calling for their resignation. Notley is right, but do not expect Kenney to step aside anytime soon.
With the conservative political establishment rallying to Kenney’s defence, barring criminal charges being laid or Kenney-connected UCP organizers being perp walked in handcuffs, it is unlikely he would step aside because of or even during the course of this potential RCMP investigation. And even if Kenney did step aside, Jean now seems like a very unlikely choice to replace him. The role of interim leader would be a better fit for Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills MLA Nathan Cooper, who ably filled the role as interim leader during the UCP leadership contest.
Wildrose MLA Derek Fildebrandt joined Jason Kenney on the eve of his victory in the PC Party leadership race. (Photo credit: @pcyouthalberta on Twitter)
An RCMP investigation is serious business and would take time before coming to a resolution, meaning that it would likely not be until after the election that Albertans learn the results of an investigation. I have heard some calls for Notley to delay the election call until after this potential investigation is concluded, pushing beyond Alberta’s unique three-month fixed election window, which seems unlikely but not impossible.
Even with a significant lead in most public opinion polls, the timing of this announcement is bad news for the UCP. It is without a doubt that we will hear leaders and candidates from the other parties use the words “UCP” and “RCMP” in the same sentence very frequently over the next few weeks.
NDP put health care on their pre-election legislative agenda
The Throne Speech and Bill 1: Protecting Public Health Care Act, could be the last big pre-election opportunity for the NDP to push forward an election narrative on an issue that plays to their strengths.
Public health care is traditionally a strong issue for the NDP and stability in the health care system has been a hallmark issue for the NDP government. Health Minister Sarah Hoffman has steered the public health care system clear of the perpetual lurch from crisis to crisis that happened under the old Progressive Conservative governments.
It is unknown how many days or weeks the NDP plan to take for this spring session, but I am told that many NDP staffers and organizers are already “on vacation” from their day jobs working hard on campaigns across the province.
UPDATE!
CBC has released a report report with new information related to the collusion between the Kenney and Callaway campaigns during the 2017 UCP leadership contest: “The leaked cache of documents show Kenney’s campaign provided Callaway with resources including strategic political direction, media and debate talking points, speeches, videos, and attack advertisements, all aimed at undermining Kenney’s main political rival, Brian Jean.”
The 51-second video is grainy, black and white, and recorded in slow motion to look like security camera footage. It is March 4, 2019. A man walks out of room into a lobby and waits for an elevator. Text appears at the bottom of the screen to tell us that he is “Jeremy Nolais, Senior Notley Advisor.” He has a pen in his mouth and looks at the person recording the video as he waits for the elevator. The video fades to black and new text appears to tell us that 10 minutes has passed as we watch Prab Gill, the Independent MLA for Calgary-Greenway, leave the same room and walk to the same elevator, giving the thumbs up to whoever is sitting behind the camera.
The creepy video appears to have been recorded inside the Federal Building, the recently renovated art deco fortress located on the north side of the Legislature Grounds where most Alberta MLAs have their Edmonton offices. The video was presumably recorded and edited on a mobile phone by someone with access to the building, like a United Conservative Party Caucus staffer.
The video was posted online by the “@UniteAlberta” Twitter account on on March 4 at 8:10 p.m. @UniteAlbeta is the Twitter account managed by United Conservative Party leader Jason Kenney’s staff, but it is widely believed that UCP Caucus Deputy Chief of Staff Matt Wolf is its principal tweeter.
Viewers of the video are not told what Nolais and Gill were doing in that room, but the purpose of the video is to suggest they were plotting something nefarious and sinister. The video is clearly meant to discredit Gill, a former UCP MLA who has been at the forefront of accusations of misconduct and alleged illegal activities that took place during the UCP leadership contest in 2017.
The Elections Commissioner is said to be investigating allegations that UCP leadership candidate Jeff Callaway was running a “kamikaze mission” backed by Kenney’s campaign in order to damage the chances of former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean winning the vote.
The Elections Commissioner recently levelled $15,000 in administrative penalties against Cameron Davies, campaign manager for Jeff Callaway’s alleged “kamikaze mission.” Davies’ offence was listed as a violation of Section 45 of the Election Finances and Contribution Disclosure Act, “Obstruction of an investigation.”
Callaway campaign donor Karen Brown was fined $3,500 for violating Section 34(1) of the Act by contributing “$3,500 to Jeff Callaway, registered UCP leadership contestant, with funds given or furnished by another person.”
The video released by the UCP was juvenile and contradicts Kenney’s oft-repeated pledge to mount a “respectful, policy-based debate” during the upcoming election campaign. Kenney frequently dismisses the NDP as an “anger machine,” but stalking your opponents and video recording them inside government offices is not an example of Kenney practicing what he preaches. Whether it was intended or not, the video definitely sends a chilling message to opponents, or “enemies,” of the UCP.
In an interview with Global Edmonton’s Jen Crosby, Kenney claimed he had not seen the video that was posted online by his staff but he accused the NDP of “working in secret” and “conspiring” with Gill to attack the UCP. Without providing any evidence to back up his claims, Kenney doubled down when he later told Postmedia that “I think it’s now pretty obvious he’s channeling attacks from the NDP, it’s dirty politics at its worst…“
Gill told the media that he was speaking with Nolais about an issue with a school in his district.
This is the latest example of the remarkable hubris demonstrated by the leader of a party that most polls show to be sitting somewhere between 15 per cent and 24 per cent ahead of the New Democratic Party only a few weeks before an expected election call.
While videos on social media are probably not enough to win an election, online gaffes can definitely hurt a party’s electoral prospects.
It can be difficult to see even a narrow path to victory for the NDP in Alberta’s current political climate without Kenney making a series of major gaffes, or his staff continuing to post creepy videos of their political opponents on the internet. But it would not be the first time a political party blew a 20 point lead. Just ask Adrian Dix.
