Categories
Alberta Politics

No surprises as UCP wins big in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-elections

United Conservative Party candidates were elected in by-elections held in two traditionally strong conservative voting districts on July 12, 2018. Both districts were held by the UCP before the by-elections were called and voters in both districts elected Wildrose Party candidates in the 2015 election.

In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Laila Goodridge soundly defeated New Democratic Party candidate Jane Stroud, a three-term Wood Buffalo municipal councillor, with a 45 percent margin of victory. In Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, one of the strongest conservative voting districts in Alberta, Devin Dreeshen was elected with 81 percent of the vote.

The NDP was nowhere close to victory in either district. In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Stroud finished with 29 percent, only one-point lower her party’s share of the vote in the 2015 election. NDP candidate Nicole Mooney finished a distant second with 9 percent of the vote in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, but this still represented her party’s second best ever showing in this district since it was created in 1993.

With 7 percent of the vote in Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, Alberta Party candidate Abigail Douglass finished only slightly higher than this district’s past Alberta Party candidate Danielle Klooster, who finished with 6.2 percent of the vote in the 2015 election. In Fort McMurray-Conklin, Alberta Party candidate Sid Fayad finished in a distant third with 2.7 percent.

The Liberals barely registered on the radar in these by-elections, with Fort McMurray-Conklin candidate Robin Le Fevre earning 1.1 percent and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake candidate Nick Jansen finishing with 0.9 percent.

Here are the results:

Fort McMurray-Conklin 
Laila Goodridge, UCP – 2,635 (65.8%)
Jane Stroud, NDP – 1,181 (29.5%)
Sid Fayad, AP – 110 (2.7%)
Robin La Fevre, Lib – 44 (1.1%)
Brian Deheer, Grn – 29 (0.7%)

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
Devin Dreeshen, UCP – 8,033 (81.7%)
Nicole Mooney, NDP – 907 (9.2%)
Abigail Douglass, AP – 729 (7.4%)
Nick Jansen, Lib – 93 (0.9%)
David Inscho, Ind – 63 (0.6%)

Here are the 2018 by-election results compared to previous results in these two districts from the time they were formed:

Fort McMurray-Conklin Election Results 2012-2018
Fort McMurray-Conklin Election Results 2012-2018 (click to enlarge)
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Election Results 1993-2018
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake Election Results 1993-2018 (click to enlarge)
Categories
Alberta Politics

UCP candidate’s ties to Trump campaign caps off sleepy by-elections in Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake

Photo: Sid Fayad, Laila Goodridge, Jane Stroud, Nicole Mooney, Abigail Douglass, Devin Dreeshen.

Voters will head to the polls tomorrow to elect new MLAs in two relatively sleepy by-elections. The two districts, Fort McMurray-Conklin and Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, were both held by United Conservative Party MLAs before they became vacant and voters are expected to have re-elected two UCP candidates after the polls close at 8:00 p.m. on July 12, 2018.

In the final day before voting day, an investigation by Vice.com revealed that Innisfail-Sylvan Lake UCP candidate Devin Dreeshen, son of local Conservative Member of Parliament Earl Dreeshen, was a campaign volunteer for Donald Trump during the 2016 U.S. Presidential elections.

As part of the investigation, Vice discovered a November 2016 photo of Dreeshen at an invite-only election night event in New York City sporting a red ‘Make America Great Again’ baseball cap and raising a drink to Trump’s victory.

According to Vice, “On and off between February and November of 2016, Dreeshen and his colleague Matthew McBain followed Trump around the United States training volunteers, knocking on doors and even shadowing Ivanka Trump for some reason.” The ‘my experience‘ section of Dreeshen’s website makes no mention of his time as a Trump volunteer south of the border.

When Vice writer Hadeel Abdel-Nabi questioned Dreeshen about his activities with the Trump campaign at a by-election event in Sylvan Lake, the UCP candidate is reported to have fled to the bathroom and was not seen again.

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake New Democratic Party candidate Nicole Mooney faced criticism for pro-life views she held in in 2014 but says she no longer holds. Mooney, a Sylvan Lake-resident who teaches at a Catholic high school in Red Deer, was reported to have led a field trip with dozens of her students to the March for Life event in Edmonton.

While anti-abortion views on women’s reproductive rights are certainly a minority opinion in the NDP caucus these days, these views are likely fairly mainstream in this rural central Alberta district.

Postmedia columnist Rick Bell pounced on Mooney’s pro-life leanings as a sign of NDP hypocrisy. But Bell neglected to mention that while Mooney has not made her views part of her campaign, a pro-life activist group has launched an effort to nominate “52 pro-life candidates” to stand in the next election, presumably for the UCP. According to Press Progress, the RightNow initiative is led by Catherine Gallagher, who previously work for Jason Kenney as a staffer in Ottawa.

The NDP scored a solid candidate when they recruited three-term Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Jane Stroud to carry their banner in Fort McMurray-Conklin. Stroud is well-respected and has good name recognition in the district. She has also earned the endorsement of three of her Wood Buffalo council colleagues and First Nations leaders in the sprawling northeast Alberta district.

UCP candidate Laila Goodridge was the target of criticism at the beginning of the campaign when Stroud accused her of being a ‘fly-in, fly-out’ candidate. A Fort McMurray native, Goodridge spent much of her adult life working as a political staffer outside of region, including as the Wildrose Party candidate in Grande Prairie-Wapiti in the 2015 provincial election. Her ties to the community and her connection to former MLA Brian Jean, who she worked for as an organizer of his 2017 UCP leadership campaign, were obviously enough of an advantage to help her win a crowded contest for the UCP nomination.

While she is the favourite to win, Goodridge appeared to be managing expectations last week, warning UCP voters that a low-voter turnout and ‘special interest groups’ tied to the NDP could hurt the UCP on July 12. Goodridge’s ‘special interest group’ comment offended some voters who believed she may have been referring to First Nations leaders supporting Stroud. 

But the incident that appeared to get the most attention during these by-elections was  when CBC reported about a racial slur made by Alberta Party candidate Sid Fayad five years ago on Facebook. Fayad apologized for the comment.

Meanwhile, the decision by Greyhound to end passenger and freight transportation operations in Alberta, an issue that will actually have a big impact on a lot of rural communities in these two districts, emerged late in the campaign. Stroud issued a statement in response to Greyhound’s withdrawal, but it was likely too late to become a decisive issue in these by-elections.  

Voting stations are open on Thursday, July 12, 2018 from 9:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.


Here are a list of the by-election candidates and their social media links:

Fort McMurray-Conklin
Alberta Party – Sid Fayad [Twitter]
Green Party – Brian Deheer
Liberal – Robin Le Fevre [Twitter]
New Democratic Party – Jane Stroud [FacebookTwitter]
United Conservative Party – Laila Goodridge [FacebookTwitter]

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
Alberta Party – Abigail Douglass [FacebookTwitter]
Liberal – Nick Jansen [Twitter]
Independent – David Inscho
New Democratic Party – Nicole Mooney [FacebookTwitter]
United Conservative Party – Devin Dreeshen [FacebookTwitter]

Categories
Alberta Politics

July by-elections called in two UCP-friendly districts.

Photo: Laila Goodridge, Jane Stroud, Nicole Mooney, and Abigail Douglass

By-elections were called today and will be held in the provincial districts of Innisfail-Sylvan Lake and Fort McMurray-Conklin on July 12, 2018.

The by-elections are needed to replace United Conservative Party MLAs Don MacIntyre and Brian Jean. MacIntyre resigned in February 2018 after he was charged with sexual assault and sexual interference, and Jean resigned in March 2018 after he was defeated in the UCP leadership contest.

In a different context in another part of the world, July 12 is known as Orangemen’s Day, but don’t expect any kind of NDP orange parade to march through these districts on July 12. Both districts are traditionally reliably conservative voting areas that elected Wildrose Party candidates in the 2015 election. And Innisfail-Sylvan Lake has been one of the strongest conservative voting districts in Alberta over the past two decades.

Judging by the voting history of the two districts, it is very likely the UCP should win both by-elections. Anything less than landslide victories in both districts will be bad news for the UCP.

While we can expect New Democratic Party cabinet ministers and MLAs to campaign alongside their party’s candidates in both districts, it appears likely that the governing party will focus most of its by-election resources in Fort McMurray-Conklin. The results will provide an indication if Premier Rachel Notley‘s championing the Trans Mountain Pipeline has had any impact on the electorate.

The strong showing by the Liberals in the 2014 by-election in the federal Fort McMurray district proves that the Conservative party’s electoral grip on the area has been loser than other rural areas of the province, but a lot has changed in Alberta politics in the past 4 years.

I almost feel sorry for the NDP that none of their MLAs have resigned since the 2015 election. All five by-election elections that have taken place during the NDP’s first term in government have been located in unfriendly districts that elected Progressive Conservative or Wildrose MLAs in 2015.

A respectable second place finish will look good for the NDP.

The Alberta Party sat out the previous two by-elections in Calgary-Greenway in 2016 and Calgary-Lougheed in 2017, but they now are fielding candidates in these races. This is the party’s first electoral test since former PC cabinet minster and Edmonton mayor Stephen Mandel was selected as the party’s leader. How the Alberta Party fares in these by-elections could provide them with momentum ahead of next year’s expected provincial election.

A respectable second place finish will look great for the Alberta Party and help them position themselves as a viable conservative alternative to the UCP.

It is important to remember that by-elections can sometimes produce unpredictable results, and that those results that may or may not be an indicator of future general election results. But as these two districts have very long histories as conservative voting areas, it is difficult to see voters in these districts choosing any other candidate but the UCP in 2018.


Here are the candidates nominated as of June 14, 2018.

Fort McMurray-Conklin
Alberta Party – Sid Fayed [Twitter]
Green Party – Brian Deheer
Liberal – Robin Le Fevre
New Democratic Party – Jane Stroud [Facebook, Twitter]
United Conservative Party – Laila Goodridge [Facebook, Twitter]

Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
Alberta Party – Abigail Douglass [Facebook, Twitter]
Green Party – Marco Reid [Facebook]
Liberal – Nicolaas Jansen
New Democratic Party – Nicole Mooney [Facebook, Twitter]
United Conservative Party – Devin Dreeshen [Facebook, Twitter]

Note: Reform Party of Alberta leader Randy Thorsteinson had initially announced plans to run in the Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election. He has since withdrawn his candidacy.

Categories
Alberta Politics

Alberta Candidate Nomination Update: A Big One.

Photo: Prasad Panda, Abigail Douglass, David Eggen, Kate Potter, and Graham Sucha

We are now about one year away from Alberta’s next provincial general election and the list of candidates running for party nominations is growing.

The Alberta Party has announced that Abigail Douglass will be their candidate in the upcoming Innisfail-Sylvan Lake by-election. A party press release states that Douglass grew up on her family’s farm near Penhold and attended Gateway Christian School in Red Deer. She attended King’s University in Edmonton and served two-terms as president of the students’ association. She earned a Bachelor of Commerce Degree at King’s.

The New Democratic Party is expected to nominate Nicole Mooney as their candidate at a nomination meeting on May 25, 2018. Mooney lives in Sylvan Lake and teaches English at St. Joseph’s High School in Red Deer. She is the Communications and Political Engagement Officer with Alberta Teachers’ Association Local 80.

NDP MLA David Eggen seeking the NDP nomination in Edmonton-North West. Eggen is currently serving his third-term as an MLA for Edmonton-Calder. Once again, the Poland of Alberta’s electoral map, Edmonton-Calder will be renamed Edmonton-North West as large swaths of the former district will become part of Edmonton-City Centre, Edmonton-Glenora and Edmonton-West Henday.

United Conservative Party MLA Prasad Panda is seeking his party’s nomination for re-election in the new Calgary- Edgemont district. Panda was first elected in a 2015 by-election in Calgary-Foothills. He was the 2012 and 2015 Wildrose Party candidate in the neighbouring Calgary-Northern Hills district.

NDP MLA Graham Sucha is seeking his party’s nomination in Calgary-Shaw. Sucha was elected as the MLA for this district in 2015, earning 31.3 percent of the vote ahead of PC MLA Jeff Wilson with 30.7 percent and Widlroser Brad Leishman with 30.4 percent.

UCP MLA Wayne Anderson has announced he is seeking his party’s nomination in the Highwood district. Anderson was first elected as a Wildrose Party MLA in the district in 2015 with 41 percent of the vote. Changes to the electoral boundaries have moved the Town of High River into the neighbouring Livingstone-Macleod district. This district was previously represented by former Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith from 2012 to 2015.

Alberta Party leader Stephen Mandel has been nominated as his party’s candidate in this southwest Edmonton district. Mandel represented this area of Edmonton as a City Councillor from 2001 to 2004. He served as the Progressive Conservative MLA for the neighbouring Edmonton-Whitemud from 2014 to 2015.

Former Alberta Party leader Greg Clark has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate Calgary-Elbow. Clark became the Alberta Party’s first elected MLA in 2015 when he was elected with 42 percent of the vote.

Here are some of the other updates to the growing list of candidates running for party nominations ahead of Alberta’s expected 2019 provincial general election: 

Banff-Kananaskis – According to Elections Alberta, restauranteur Scott Winograd has withdrawn from the UCP nomination in this district.

Calgary-BuffaloOmar Masood has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate in the newly redrawn Calgary-Buffalo district. Masood was the first candidate nominated to run in the 2019 election when he was nominated to run under the currently existing boundaries in November 2016.

Calgary-CrossRoshan Chumber is seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-Currie – Bettina Pierre-Gilles is seeking the UCP nomination. She is the President and CEO of Luxeum Renewables Group Inc. and is a member of the UCP Policy Committee.

Calgary-East – Robert O’Leary is seeking the UCP nomination

Calgary-Glenmore – Michael LaBerge is the fifth candidate to enter the UCP nomination contest in this southwest Calgary district. LaBerge is president of Channel Energy Inc.

Calgary-Mountain ViewJeremy Wong is seeking the UCP nomination. Wong is a pastor with the Calgary Chinese Alliance Church and recently completed a Master of Public Administration at the University of Calgary.

Calgary-North East – Anand Chetty is seeking the UCP nomination. Chetty is the owner of Calgary Rocky Tours.

Calgary-North West – Cam Khan is seeking the UCP nomination.

Calgary-VarsityLesley Doell has withdrawn her candidacy for the UCP nomination in Calgary-North West and is now running for the UCP nomination in the neighbouring Calgary-Varsity district.

Chestermere-StrathmoreDavid Campbell will challenge Chestermere-Rockyview MLA Leela Aheer for the UCP nomination in this new district.

Drayton Valley-DevonKieran Quirke is seeking the NDP nomination. He is the Chair of the Leduc-Nisku Economic Development Board and co-chair of the Alberta NDP Rural Caucus. The NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting to take place on June 23, 2018. Also, Andrew Boitchenko challenging incumbent MLA Mark Smith for the UCP nomination.

Drumheller-StettlerTodd Pawsey is seeking the UCP nomination. Pawsey is a Development Officer with the County of Paintearth. Also seeking the nomination is Nate Horner, a rancher and grandson of former Member of Parliament Jack Horner.

Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview – Roger Fodjo is seeking the UCP nomination

Edmonton-Castle Downs – Mohamad Rahall is seeking the Alberta Party nomination

Edmonton-Ellerslie – Sanjay Patel is seeking the UCP nomination.

Edmonton-Gold Bar – Former PC MLA David Dorward is seeking the UCP nomination. Dorward served as MLA for this district from 2012 until 2015 when he was unseated by New Democrat candidate Marlin Schmidt. Diana Ly is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.

Edmonton-Highlands-NorwoodTish Prouse is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Prouse was a candidate for Edmonton City Council in Ward 7 in 2013 and Ward 6 in 2017. Michael Kalyn is seeking the UCP nomination.

Edmonton-Mill Woods – Anju Sharma is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.

Edmonton-RutherfordLaine Larson is seeking the UCP nomination. Larson is an Independent Contractor with Malley’s Gourmet and the step-son of former Reform Party Member of Parliament Deborah Grey.

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville – Darryl Kropielnicki is seeking the UCP nomination.

Grande Prairie – Tracy Allard is seeking the UCP nomination. Allard is the owner of several Tim Hortons franchaises.

Grande Prairie-WapitiKate Potter is seeking the UCP nomination. She was first elected to the Town of Sexsmith Council in October 2017.

Lac Ste. Anne-ParklandEverett Normandeau and Barbara Costache are seeking the UCP nomination. Normandeau is the owner of Summit Land and Environmental Inc. Costache is a Governor on the Board of Directors of the Lifesaving Society Alberta and Northwest Territories Branch.

Lacombe-Ponoka – Rita Reich is challenging MLA Ron Orr for the UCP nomination in this central Alberta district.

Leduc-Beaumont – Jan Becker is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. He is the executive director of the Leduc #1 Energy Discovery Centre in Leduc County.

Livingstone-MacleodRoger Reid is seeking the UCP nomination. Reid is the owner of Tim Hortons franchises in Nanton and Clareshold and is chair of the Claresholm and District Health Foundation.

Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin – Donna Andres and Richard Wilson are seeking the UCP nomination. Andres served on Wetaskiwin City Council from 2001 to 2007.

Red Deer-South – Haley Wile is seeking the UCP nomination. She is a spokesperson for a supporter of the “non-partisan” pro-pipeline Rally 4 Resources group. Matt Chapin has withdrawn from the UCP nomination contest in this district and is instead seeking the UCP nomination in the neighbouring Red Deer-North,

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!