Category: Alberta Politics

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Alberta Politics

provincial politicians being gamed into katz downtown arena funding debate.

The game of funding billionaire Daryl Katz‘s contentious downtown Edmonton arena proposal entered the provincial political arena this week with candidates in the Progressive Conservative leadership contest and an opposition politician dancing around this delicate issue. Supporters of the Katz downtown arena, including Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel, are stalking the provincial leadership candidates for commitments to hand over provincial tax dollars to fill an extra $100 million gap to construct the project on top of the $125 million from taxes on surrounding development and other municipal funds.

In front of a crowd of more than 350 supporters in Vermilion last week, the PC leadership candidates balked at the idea of using provincial funding to support the construction of the privately-operated downtown arena.

A day later, conservative crusader Ted Morton astonishingly floated the bizarre idea that the capital region hold a referendum to add one per cent to Goods and Services Tax (a “penny tax”) for two years in order to pay for the Katz downtown arena. This proposal is problematic at its most basic (including the fact that the GST is a federal tax).

Progressive Conservative leadership candidate Ted Morton in Vermillion on July 21, 2011.
Ted Morton wants to raise the GST to help a billionaire?

After being incorrectly reported as supporting a tax increase to fund the arena, Alison Redford issued a statement setting the record straight that she opposes any provincial direct funding or a dedicated tax. Former Deputy Premier Doug Horner ruled out direct funding from the provincial government.

In Vermilion, Gary Mar reaffirmed his previous position that the Katz downtown arena will not receive any provincial funding if he becomes Premier.

Never too far away to deliver a soundbite, Wildrose leader Danielle Smith issued a hastily written media release during a stop in Peace River calling for a lottery to fill the $100 million gap.

Premier Ed Stelmach suggested that Mayor Mandel look to existing funds in the already allocated funds from the Municipal Sustainability Initiative (MSI) to fill the gap. Using MSI funds to find $100 million for the Katz downtown arena could mean diverting already promised towards the construction and maintenance of public infrastructure such as roads, public transit, and community halls.

While the City of Edmonton will technically “own” the new downtown arena, Mr. Katz, the billionaire owner of the Edmonton Oilers, will collect the revenue generated at the arena.

Meanwhile, Mr. Katz remains conspicuously missing from this public funding debate (perhaps he is hanging out with his millionaire friend Gary Bettman).

Related posts
boosterism beating diligence and reason in katz downtown arena debate.
understanding the katz arena district debate: community revitalization levy, opportunity costs, and the arena poll.
election promises, arena subsidies, and political zealots.
for better or worse, the katz group is getting their arena deal.

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Alberta Politics

new survey suggests politics as usual in alberta.

A new Environics survey of 900 Albertans published by the Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald paints a disappointing picture for anyone hoping for a political sea change in the upcoming provincial election. The survey shows decided support for Alberta’s political parties at:

Progressive Conservative 53.3%
Wildrose 16.1%
Liberal 10.9%
NDP 10.9%
Alberta Party 1.7%

With undecided voters distributed:
Progressive Conservative 54.2%
Wildrose 16.4%
Liberal 13.6%
NDP 13.6%
Alberta Party 2.1%

The survey results are difficult to analyze without seeing the regional breakdowns and so much will depend on who the governing Progressive Conservatives choose as their next leader this Fall.

Update: The Calgary Herald now has a story on the party support.

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peter sandhu endorses ted morton, lindsay blackett endorses doug horner.

I have updated the list and map of MLAs endorsing candidates in Alberta’s Progressive Conservative leadership contest. Edmonton-Manning MLA Peter Sandhu has endorsed Ted Morton‘s candidacy and Calgary-North West MLA and Culture Minister Lindsay Blackett has endorsed Doug Horner.

Gary Mar still has the most MLA endorsements with the support of 17 MLAs, Mr. Horner has the support of 13 MLAs and Mr. Morton has the support of 10 MLAs. Alison Redford and Doug Griffiths remain having the support of of their fellow MLAs each. Rick Orman has no MLA support.

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is rob anders only supportin’ morton? anders loyalists flocking to wildrose.

Proving again why he should never be trusted with the responsibility to stand-in for a cabinet minister at a press conference, Calgary-West Member of Parliament Rob Anders, inappropriately used his time at the podium to boast his support for Progressive Conservative leadership candidate Ted Morton.

This is hardly the first time Mr. Anders has displayed such buffoonery. Before he was an MP, he worked as a professional heckler with the Oklahoma Republicans.

The inappropriate Mr. Anders is well-known for a hardcore right-wing conservative views. Many Canadians may remember him as the only MP to vote against making Nelson Mandela an honorary citizen of Canada. He defended his actions by stating that Mr. Mandela was a communist and a terrorist and later refused to take a phone call from the former President of South Africa.

Despite his comments that his support for Dr. Morton is an effort to “avoid a civil war in the province of Alberta over the next election,” his recent public support of the Wildrose’s Danielle Smith suggests that he is simply interested in supporting conservatives that fit his ideological brand.

A significant number of Anders loyalists on Conservative Party of Canada board of directors in Calgary-West (not to be confused with the former board) are also hitching their political careers to Ms. Smith’s party.

Mr. Anders’ former Riding President Andrew Constantinidis is the nominated Wildrose candidate in the provincial constituency of Calgary-West. Mr. Anders constituency assistant Russell Hillier is seeking the Wildrose nomination in Calgary-North West (As noted in my previous post, Mr. Hillier is also a founder of the anti-immigration and anti-multicultualism group Canadian Culture and Integration Society). Another member of Mr. Anders’ board of directors, Tim Dyck, is seeking the Wildrose nomination in Calgary-Bow. The three Wildrose candidates were given a platform to speak at Mr. Anders’ recent Calgary Stampede BBQ.

Other members of Mr. Anders’ constituency organization are also prominent members of the Wildrose. Peter Csillag is a Vice-President of the Wildrose Campus Club at the University of Calgary. John DeRinzy is the President Wildrose association in Calgary-Bow. Hermina Dykxhoorn is the Vice-President Policy for the Wildrose association in Calgary-West. Paul Hamnett is the Vice-President Communications of the Wildrose association in Calgary-West. Until recently, Candice Malcolm was the Executive Assistant to Ms. Smith. Joseph Zamuda is the Treasurer of the Wildrose association Calgary-West.

After almost forty-years of PC governments, Albertans are in the mood for political change. I have a hard time believing that most Albertans have the appetite for the type of change that Rob Anders and his loyalists have in mind.

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Alberta Politics

alberta candidate nomination updates – july 2011 (part 2).

Here are some updates to the list of nominated and declared candidates wanting to stand for their parties in the next provincial election.

Calgary-North West Wildrose candidate Russell Hillier Alberta
Russell Hillier

Calgary-North West: Russell Hillier is seeking the Wildrose nomination. Mr. Hillier is a Constituency Assistant to Calgary-West Conservative MP Rob Anders (who is supportin’ Ted Morton) and is a founding member of the Canadian Culture and Integration Society, which is dedicated to reducing mass-immigration and eliminating official multiculturalism in Canada. He is the son of Ontario PC MPP for Lanark, Frontenac, Lennox & Addington Randy Hillier.

Calgary-Buffalo: Liberal MLA Kent Hehr is expected to be acclaimed at his party’s nomination on August 2. Mr. Hehr was first elected in the 2008 general election with 48% of the vote. This constituency has been mentioned as one that Gary Mar could stand in if he wins the Progressive Conservative leadership this Fall.

Drumheller-Stettler: The Drumheller Mail. is reporting three candidates preparing to seek the Wildrose nomination. Dave France was the Alberta Alliance and later Wildrose Alliiance candidate in the 2004 and 2008 General Elections and the 2007 By-Election. Rick Strankman was until recently the local constituency President. Chris Warwick is serving his third-term on Hanna town council. Not mentioned in the article is Patrick Turnbull, who launched a campaign website earlier this year.

Edmonton-McClung: Carrie Kohan is seeking the Wildrose nomination. She is the founder of Mad Mothers Against Pedophiles, was the recipient of the YWCA Women of Distinction Award for Advocacy 2010, and on her Facebook Page she describes herself as the “Erin Brockovich of Canada.”

Edmonton-Meadowlark: Rick Newcombe is seeking the Wildrose nomination. Mr. Newcombe recently withdrew from the Wildrose nomination in Edmonton-Whitemud, leaving Ian Crawford to be acclaimed.

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alberta tories video on demand.

All the candidates for Alberta’s Progressive Conservative Party, save Alison Redford and Rick Orman, have used online videos to promote their campaign. What do their videos say about how their campaigns are going so far?

Doug Griffiths: “I’m standing out in the rain” (an unfortunate metaphor for his campaign) or “My name is Doug Griffiths and I’m built Ford tough.”

Ted Morton: “My program to remove the word “Wildrose” from Alberta’s licence plates.”

Doug Horner: “Don’t I look cool when I hold this iPad2?”

Gary Mar: “If I don’t get this job, I’m a shoe in for a gig on the Food Network!”

Rick Orman: “I retired from politics 18 years ago and in my day we bought old fashioned newspaper ads. People still read newspapers, …right?”

Rick Orman Stelmach sinking ship Calgary Herald Ad
This ad appeared in the Calgary Herald
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Alberta Politics

recap of the alberta progressive conservative leadership forum in vermilion.

Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership forum July 21, 2011 in Vermilion.
Alberta PC leadership candidates at the July 21, 2011 forum in Vermilion.

More than 350 Progressive Conservative supporters packed into the main hall at Vermilion’s Lakeland College Campus to hear and ask questions to the six candidates seeking the leadership of Alberta’s governing party.

Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership candidate Alison Redford in Vermilion on July 21, 2011.
Alison Redford

The format of the debate only allowed each candidate a short 30 seconds to respond to questions. Instead of encouraging direct answers, it limited the candidates responses to quick soundbites, leaving many of the questions to be simply unanswered. This visibly frustrated some of the candidates, most notably Alison Redford who attempted numerous times to delve into details only to have her mic cut off at the 30 second mark.

The only candidate this seemed to help was Gary Mar, who rattled out 15 second soundbites with ease. Unfortunately, this also meant that he said very little of substance during the entire evening. “Alberta is a beautiful garden of flowers”, “forged in the fire of fiscal fury”, and “opportunities in agriculture are sensational” are not exactly policy positions. His soundbite-style responses were an unfortunate distraction and, in my opinion, downplayed his intelligence.

Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership candidate Gary Mar on July 21, 2011 in Vermilion
Gary Mar

The limiting format aside, it was interesting to watch how the candidates are positioning themselves in the group. As this was the first of seven all-candidates forums planned to be held across Alberta, the candidates were fairly collegial to each other. It will be interesting to see if this changes as the September 17 first ballot vote approaches.

Each of the candidates spoke against the lay-off of over 1,000 teachers province-wide. Rick Orman accused the government of breaking its word, saying that “a deal is a deal.” Doug Griffiths compared the lay-offs to “selling the topsoil off the farm.”

When asked if any of the candidate would support provincial funding for billionaire Daryl Katz‘s planned downtown Edmonton arena, each of the candidates answered with a definitive “no.” Ted Morton led the group consensus, saying that schools and hospitals, not expensive sports facilities, should be the provincial government’s funding priorities.

Peddling another non-starter issue at the forum was a group of sad looking volunteers representing Envision Edmonton. The lobby group failed to stop the phased closure and re-development of the City Centre Airport lands during the 2010 municipal elections and has been living in a self-imposed exile in Vermilion ever since. They also failed to ask the leadership candidates any questions about their issue at the forum.

Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership candidate Doug Horner at the July 21, 2011 forum in Vermilion.
Doug Horner

Dr. Morton was the only candidate to take a more than veiled shot at the outgoing Premier Ed Stelmach, saying that the 2007 Royal Review was his party’s biggest mistake and that under his leadership the government would return to Ralph Klein-style fiscal planning. Considering that Dr. Morton was a key player in forcing Premier Stelmach to resign, it is not surprising that he took the most aggressive stance against the Premier’s agenda.

Doug Horner told the audience that he believed his party’s biggest problem has been the failure to engage their grassroots in a meaningful way. In his closing speech, he reminded the crowd about his family’s connection to the PC dynasty and the role his father, Dr. Hugh Horner, played in building the PC Party with Peter Lougheed.

This weekend, I will write a post that compares and contrasts the two leadership forums I attended this week (the other being the Liberal Party forum).

View more photos of last night’s PC leadership forum in Vermilion on Flickr.

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liberal leadership candidates woo edmonton supporters.

 

Liberal leadership candidates (L-R) Bruce Payne, Raj Sherman, Laurie Blakeman, and Hugh MacDonald.
Liberal leadership candidates (L-R) Bruce Payne, Raj Sherman, Laurie Blakeman, and Hugh MacDonald.

More than 200 dedicated Liberal Party supporters piled into Edmonton’s Santa Maria Centre yesterday evening to hear candidates for their party’s leadership speak and answer questions. I attended and was surprised to discover a fairly lively evening for a traditional style all-candidates forum.

All the candidates spoke well, but I believe that the real star of the evening was the moderator, Josipa Petrunic. Ms. Petrunic was well-spoken, articulate, and did not seem to take herself too seriously. I had to ask myself a few times through the course of the evening why she was not on stage as a candidate (she did announce that she plans to stand as a candidate in the next provincial election).

The perceived front-runner, former Tory MLA Raj Sherman, was well-received by the crowd of Liberals, many who see him (rightfully or wrongfully) as a an anti-Tory folk hero. Dr. Sherman spoke well, but will need to expand his responses beyond “health care” in order to prove that he is not a one-trick policy pony.

Despite my being distracted by his uncanny resemblance to James Brolin‘s Governor Robert Ritchie, Bruce Payne spoke well. I am not convinced that he should lead the Liberals, but this experience is sure to help him as his party’s next candidate in Calgary-Varsity (replacing the retiring Harry Chase)

Edmonton-Gold Bar MLA Hugh MacDonald showed his experience with a commanding performance, abandoning his usual conspiracy theory-driven Question Period style for a more dignified pose. His knowledge of detail and experience as Chair of the Public Accounts Committee helped him throughout the evening.

Calgarian Bill Harvey took a strong conservative-angle on fiscal and social policy, made contradictory statements about government involvement in business, and never missed an opportunity to mention a certain former political leader. After hearing the policy positions espoused by this candidate, I would not be surprised to see Mr. Harvey’s name on a Wildrose lawn sign in the near future.

In my opinion, Edmonton-Centre MLA Laurie Blakeman was the only candidate who left the impression that she would define the Liberal Party as more than just a softer version of the Progressive Conservatives. I believe this may be the biggest challenge that will face the next Liberal leader. What place does their party have in a field that has become increasingly dominated by the PCs and Wildrose?

Switching gears, this evening I will be hitting the road eastward to attend the PC leadership forum in Vermilion to watch candidates Doug Griffiths, Doug Horner, Gary Mar, Ted Morton, Rick Orman, and Alison Redford square off in the first of many open-forums.

Visit my Flickr page to see more photos of last night’s Liberal Party forum.

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mark horvath and stories of the invisiblepeople.tv.

Telling the story of homelessness through social media, Mark Horvath has been able to share the stories of homeless people across the United States and Canada to millions of Internet users. I had the great opportunity to meet Mr. Horvath this evening at an event hosted by Homeward Trust Edmonton where he shared his story, as well as the stories behind his ongoing project invisiblepeople.tv.

Invisiblepeople.tv is a project started by Mr. Horvath after he found himself virtually homeless after the American economic collapse in the late 2000s. The project is dedicated to putting a face and story to the homeless through video interviews conducted by Mr. Horvath on the streets and in homeless shelters across Canada and the United States. To date, his videos have attracted over 2.4 million views and his project has drawn the support of companies like the Ford Motor Company and GMC, and Petro-Canada which have helped make his travels possible.

Does telling these stories make a difference for the people telling the stories? For some of these people, yes. During a March 2011 trip through Calgary, Mr. Horvath interviewed Donny Bixby, who was spending his nights sleeping in alleyways during the freezing cold weather. Donny had been homeless for 21 years.

This week, Mr. Horvath returned to Calgary to once again interview Donny, who is now living in an apartment and working two jobs. Following the initial video, Mr. Bixby was located by the Calgary Homeless Foundation, who helped him find housing through a Housing First approach to ending homelessness. CTV Calgary called it a homeless success story.

Alberta’s Housing First approach, championed by the Calgary Homeless Foundation and Homeward Trust Edmonton and supported through Alberta’s Ten-Year Plan to End Homelessness, recognizes that one of the most important steps towards eliminating homelessness is by providing dignity and stability of having a home.

Speaking with CTV Calgary, Mr. Horvath contrasted Alberta’s ten-year plan to those in his country.

“In the States the ten year plan is pretty much a joke in most communities. Some are doing it, but not like they are here. Here in Calgary I think you’ve housed over 2000 people. That’s amazing for a community this size.”

One of Premier Ed Stelmach‘s boldest decisions during his time in office was to spearhead this plan to end homelessness in Alberta in a decade. Premier Stelmach provided the political will to guide the Ten Year Plan through its first three years. As he retires this Fall, it will be up to the next Premier to provide the political will to move this bold plan to end homelessness in our province through its next seven years. Let’s keep it going and prove Alberta can do it.

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where the votes were in the 2006 alberta pc leadership vote, where the mla support is in 2011.

Maps comparing total number of votes in the final ballot of the 2006 Alberta PC leadership contest and MLA support in the 2011 PC leadership contest.
Total number of votes in the final ballot of the 2006 Alberta PC leadership contest and MLA support in the 2011 PC leadership contest.

As Jim Dinning learned six years ago, having the support of MLAs in a leadership contest does not assure victory. The long-time front-runner in the 2006 Progressive Conservative leadership contest counted the support of over forty sitting MLAs, but on the final ballot vote, it was a low-key cabinet minister named Ed Stelmach with the initial support of nine MLAs who upset Mr. Dinning’s sure-win.

The current PC leadership contest has shown a larger diversity in choices among PC MLAs, with Gary Mar drawing the support of seventeen MLAs, Doug Horner twelve MLAs, Ted Morton nine MLAs, and one each for both Alison Redford and Doug Griffiths.

Premier Christy Clark‘s recent victory in the BC Liberal leadership contest proved that even a candidate with the support of only one-MLA can become the leader of a governing party. A downside of this scenario, as Premier Clark is said to be discovering, and as Premier Stelmach discovered, is that you still have to work with those MLAs who did not support your bid.

Support from sitting-MLAs does have its advantages if the MLA has a strong local organization and especially in rural areas, where local representatives have a different kind of relationship with municipal councils, community organizations, and local weekly newspapers than their counterparts representing big city constituencies.

The maps above compare the total number of votes in the final weekend of the 2006 PC leadership contest with the support of MLAs in 2011. The number of voting members in each constituency will change in this year’s contest, due to different candidates and a different political environment, but it is an interesting look at where the largest groupings of PC memberships were sold in that year’s contest.

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after months of campaigning, the pc leadership race officially begins.

All six candidates expected to enter the Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership contest successfully filed their nomination papers, meeting yesterday’s deadline. With less than 70 days left before Alberta’s four-decade long governing party chooses its next leader, and Premier-designate, Doug Griffith, Doug Horner, Gary Mar, Ted Morton, Rick Orman, and Alison Redford will participate in a number of officially hosted open forums.

July 21: All-Candidates Forum in Vermillion
July 28: All-Candidates Forum in Grande Prairie
August 11: All-Candidates Forum in Fort McMurray
August 18: All-Candidates Forum in Medicine Hat
August 25: All-Candidates Forum in Lethbridge
September 1: All-Candidates Forum in Red Deer
September 7: All-Candidates Forum in Calgary
September 15: All-Candidates Forum in Edmonton

Advanced voting for the first-ballot will commence on September 13 and regular voting on September 17. If no candidate receives 50%+1 on the first-ballot, then the three candidates with the most votes will contest a preferential second-ballot vote October 1. If no candidate earns 50%+1 on the second-ballot, the second choice votes from the third place candidate will be redistributed among the final two candidates.

The list of MLA endorsements of PC leadership candidates is being continually updated. Recent changes include the addition of Rocky Mountain House MLA Ty Lund and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills MLA Richard Marz, and Whitecourt-Ste. Anne MLA George VanderBurg, who have endorsed Mr. Mar. I have also removed Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Broyce Jacobs‘ endorsement of Dr. Morton, after receiving conflicting reports that he was also supporting Mr. Mar. It is also expected that Calgary-Shaw MLA Cindy Ady may soon endorse Mr. Mar.

Over the next few weeks, I will be taking a closer look at what MLA endorsements actually mean for the leadership candidates and how deep the PC Party membership has been in many of the constituencies these MLAs represent.

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alberta ndp and wildrose preparing for next provincial election.

Hoping to capitalize on the recent gains made by their federal counterparts in the May 2011 election, word on the street is that the Alberta New Democrats have brought in a seasoned election organizer to be the key architect of their next provincial election campaign.

Jo-Anne McNevin is a a seasoned NDP organizer who has managed campaigns in British Columbia, Manitoba, and Ontario. She was the director of organization for the federal NDP in the late 1980s and she organized campaigns for Ed Broadbent, Bob Rae, and Frances Lankin.

Globe & Mail columnist Jeffrey Simpson wrote of Ms. McNevin on February 11, 1997:

“When the NDP wants a federal or provincial seat badly enough, it sends in Jo-Anne McNevin to organize the campaign. Ms. McNevin — tough, smart and seasoned — ran campaigns for such NDP luminaries as Ed Broadbent and Bob Rae, and she’ll upstake from her British Columbia home to organize Ms. [Alexa] McDonough’s effort in Halifax”

The NDP is expected to focus their resources on five constituencies, including the two already held by Edmonton-Strathcona MLA Rachel Notley and Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood MLA Brian Mason, as well as Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview, Edmonton-Calder, and Edmonton-Manning.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the political spectrum, the Wildrose have hired University of Alberta Law student Steven Dollansky as the new Special Assistant to leader Danielle Smith responsible for election readiness. Mr. Dollansky is the President of the Edmonton-Centre Conservative Association and was my successor as Vice-President External of the U of A Students’ Union years ago. Also of interest, Lac La Biche-St. Paul Wildrose candidate Shayne Saskiw recently replaced long-time Conservative organizer Vitor Marciano as that party’s executive director.

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mla support in the alberta pc leadership contest (july 14, 2011)

Here is a preliminary list and map of MLAs who are supporting candidates in the 2011 Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership contest. Please comment below or send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com if there are additions or subtractions to be made to this list.

 

2011 Alberta PC leadership MLA support July 14 2011
Map of MLA support in the 2011 Alberta PC leadership contest.

Candidate: Doug Griffiths (1 MLA)
Kyle Fawcett (Calgary-North Hill)

Candidate: Doug Horner (12 MLAs)
Ray Danyluk (Lac La Biche-St. Paul)
Wayne Drysdale (Grande Prairie-Wapiti)
Hector Goudreau (Dunvegan-Central Peace)
Jack Hayden (Drumheller-Stettler)
Jeff Johnson (Athabasca-Redwater)
Ken Kowalski (Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock)
Genia Leskiw (Bonnyville-Cold Lake)
Len Mitzel (Cypress-Medicine Hat)
Frank Oberle (Peace River)
Luke Ouellette (Innisfail-Sylvan Lake)
Dave Quest (Strathcona)
Greg Weadick (Lethbridge-West)

Candidate: Gary Mar (11 MLAs)
Naresh Bhardwaj (Edmonton-Ellerslie)
Iris Evans (Sherwood Park)
Heather Klimchuk (Edmonton-Glenora)
Mel Knight (Grande Prairie-Smoky)
Diana McQueen (Drayton Valley-Calmar)
Ron Liepert (Calgary-West)
Thomas Lukaszuk (Edmonton-Castle Downs)
Ray Prins (Lacombe-Ponoka)
Rob Renner (Medicine Hat)
George Rogers (Leduc-Beaumont-Devon)
Lloyd Snelgrove (Vermilion-Lloydminster)

Candidate: Ted Morton (10 MLAs)
Moe Amery (Calgary-East)
Carl Benito (Edmonton-Mill Woods)
Evan Berger (Livingstone-Macleod)
Jonathan Denis (Calgary-Egmont)
Doug Elniski (Edmonton-Calder)
George Groenveld (Highwood)
Broyce Jacobs (Cardston-Taber-Warner)
Dave Rodney (Calgary-Lougheed)
Tony Vandermeer (Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview)
David Xiao (Edmonton-McClung)

Candidate: Rick Orman
None

Candidate: Alison Redford (1 MLA)
Art Johnston (Calgary-Hays)

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daveberta interview on cbc edmonton am.

I joined CBC’s Edmonton AM Mark Scholz this morning to talk about blogging and the political scene in Alberta.

You can listen to the interview here.

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did danielle smith’s wildrose peak too early?

Wildrose leader Danielle Smith and Wildrose Alliance MLAs Paul Hinman, Heather Forsyth, and Rob Anderson. January 2010.
Wildrose leader Danielle Smith and Wildrose MLAs Paul Hinman, Heather Forsyth, and Rob Anderson in January 2010.

With the departure of Premier Ed Stelmach soon upon us, and the Tories choosing a new leader this fall, has the wave that carried the Wildrose high in the polls in 2010 crested in 2011?

In 2010, the Wildrose benefited greatly from a number of high-profile Tory defections. Convinced they were riding the next wave after a narrow by-election victory in a Tory stronghold saw Paul Hinman return to the Assembly, floor-crossing Tory MLAs Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth joined Danielle Smith‘s party in January 2010. The next month, the Wildrose were riding higher than the Tories in public opinion polls. Soon after they were joined by former PC organizer Hal Walker and banished former Tory cabinet minister Guy Boutilier. Rumours of more Tory defections were spreading like wildfire.

The high tide that was 2010 for the Wildrose led to a much more reality-based and sober 2011. Without the weather vane that was the unpopular Premier Stelmach, Ms. Smith’s Wildrose will be facing a new Progressive Conservative leader in the next general election.

Following a policy convention that reaffirmed the party’s commitment to a number of fringe conservative pet issues, a number of Tory-cum-Wildrose supporters returned to the PC Party. Dean Leask, Wildrose’s former vice-president of policy has returned to the Tory ranks, describing his now former party as “an antigrassroots movement.”

Mr. Leask is now supporting former Finance Minister Ted Morton‘s bid for the PC leadership. A number of other Wildrosers are said to have returned to the Tories to support Rick Orman‘s leadership bid.

Is the Wildrose an “anti-grassroots movement?” This is difficult to confirm, but evidence suggests that the party has handled internal disputes with a heavy-hand. Conflicts with the central party over the candidate nomination process led to the resignations of members of the board of directors in the Medicine Hat and Little Bow constituencies. Some disgruntled Wildrose supporters have put the blame on professional political operatives like Vitor Marciano, while others have complained to this blogger than MLA Mr. Anderson is “micro-managing” party affairs.

While much of the Wildrose’s future depends on who becomes the next leader of the PC Party, the high hopes of competing tête-à-tête with the PCs in the next general election may be dashed. The Wildrose have begun trending below the Tories in more reputable polls and are substantially behind the governing party in fundraising (though they are far ahead of the opposition NDP, Alberta Party, and Liberals).

The forecast of forming government anytime soon may be less optimistic, but Ms. Smith’s cadre of disgruntled conservatives appear to have positioned themselves as a permanent fixture on Alberta’s political scene, with the growing possibility that they may form the Official Opposition after the next election.

Even the once starry-eyed optimist, Ms. Smith appears to be shifting into the mode of managing the expectations of her party faithful. Instead of reaffirming previous comments that Albertans were ready to elect her party to government, she settled on a more modest comment at the Calgary Stampede this weekend, telling the Canadian Press that “after the next election there will be a large contingent of Wildrosers.”

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