A December sunset at Alberta's Legislative Assembly Building.
Thank you to all the readers who continue to return to this blog each day and new readers who may have found this blog for the first time. I have had a lot of fun writing about the unique world of Alberta politics over the past six years and plan to keep writing for many years to come.
The past year was an exciting time to write about our political scene. Starting in January with Premier Ed Stelmach‘s resignation, followed two days later by Finance Minister Ted Morton‘s resignation, then Liberal leader David Swann‘s resignation a week later, it started with a bang. Two leadership contests, the selection of Alison Redford as Alberta’s first woman Premier, a few cabinet shuffles, floor crossings, and many public opinion polls later, we now enter 2012 on the cusp of what could be an exciting provincial election campaign. I am expecting next year to be an interesting one for political watchers and writers of all political stripes.
This time of year, it is important to take account of what is important. So over the next few days I will be turning my attention away from the down and dirty of politics to focus on what is most important to me – my family, friends, and loved ones. I hope you take the opportunity to do the same this holiday season.
Have a Merry Christmas and a safe and happy New Year.
See you in 2012!
Dave
PS. Check out this blog next week for my fourth annual list of Alberta’s MLAs who I believe made a big difference in Alberta politics over the past year.
One might think that the battle to build Oil Sands pipelines or the struggle to fight climate change would be the hottest conflicts on Alberta’s energy beach, but with a provincial election approaching the local political scene is heating up.
Everybody loves trees: Don Scott and Wood Buffalo Mayor Melissa Blake.
First-term Wood Buffalo regional municipal Councillor Don Scott has launched a website announcing his entry into the contest for the Progressive Conservative nomination in the newly created Fort McMurray-Conklin constituency. Mr. Scott is a lawyer and owner of the McMurray Law Office.
Branding himself as ‘A Strong Voice‘ for the Wood Buffalo region, Mr. Scott faces the task of winning Alberta’s energy beach back for his party. Until 2009, the Progressive Conservatives had represented this area since the retirement of Liberal MLA Adam Germain in 1997.
When the next provincial election is called, the south and east half of the current Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo constituency will be carved-off to form Fort McMurray-Conklin. The 2008 municipal census estimated that there were over 100,000 people living in the booming Wood Buffalo region.
Pensive face: Guy Boutilier with former Premier Ed Stelmach in 2008.
Incumbent MLA Guy Boutilier was booted from the PC caucus in 2009 and joined the Wildrose Party in 2010. Mr. Boutilier was first elected in 1997 and served as a cabinet minister in the government of Premier Ralph Klein.
Mr. Boutilier was ejected from the PC caucus in 2009 after accusing then-Health Minister Ron Liepert of “talking gibberish” about the construction of a permanent long-term care facility for seniors in Fort McMurray and then criticizing Premier Ed Stelmach for not wanting a cabinet minister “who graduated from Harvard withBarack Obama” (Boutilier later admitted that he never met Obama while at Harvard).
Mr. Boutilier has yet to announce which of the new Fort McMurray constituencies he will seek re-election in. Perhaps he will run in both.
While testifying to the Alberta Energy Utilities Board in 2006, then-Environment Minister Boutilier told Mikisew Cree First Nation lawyer Don Mallon that at the time, he was not speaking as the Minister of the Environment, but as an MLA. When asked how he could do this, Boutilier testified that he could actually turn off the part of his brain where he was the Minister of Environment. An impressive feat for any elected official.
While Mr. Boutilier’s changing political allegiances will likely be a defining topic in the next campaign, he may not be alone. According to the Elections Alberta financial disclosures, the Donald Scott Professional Corporation donated $1,000 to the local Wildrose Party constituency association in 2010.
Fort McMurray political watchers have suggested that former Councillor and two-time Liberal Party candidate John Vyboh may seek the Wildrose Party nomination in whichever of the twin Fort McMurray constituencies that Mr. Boutilier is not running in. The other opposition parties have yet to nominate candidates in either of the soon to be created Fort McMurray twin constituencies.
In May 2008, Marz introduced a motion that “Bill 203, the Election Statutes (Fixed Election Dates) Amendment Act, 2008, be not now read a second time but that it be read a second time this day six months hence.” Marz’s motion was passed when 36 PC MLAs (including Allred) out-voted 5 opposition MLAs.”
Now it is November 2011, the Progressive Conservatives are still in office, Premier Ed Stelmach is gone, Premier Redford is in, Mr. Marz is retiring, Mr. Allred is being challenged for the PC nomination (and may retire), and Alberta might get fixed-election dates.
The Alberta Liberals announced with a gleeful media release this week that Alex MacDonald would be joining their caucus staff as a part-time strategist. Political watchers may remember Mr. MacDonald as the Chief of Staff to former Edmonton Mayor and Liberal Party leader Laurence Decore in the 1980s and early 1990s.
A seasoned strategist, Mr. MacDonald is said to be the man behind Mr. Decore’s infamous ‘debt clock’ that helped launch the Liberals into Official Opposition status in the 1993 election (and their best showing since the 1917 election). While the addition of Mr. MacDonald may boost their roster, it eats into the narrative that Tory MLA-turned-Liberal leader Dr. Raj Sherman is promoting about the birth (or re-birth) of the “new Liberals.”
Also biting into Dr. Sherman’s “new Liberals” narrative is the nomination of five former one-term MLAs as his party’s candidates in five potentially winnable constituencies – Mo Elsalhy in Edmonton-McClung, Bharat Agnihotri in Edmonton-Ellerslie, Weslyn Mather in Edmonton-Mill Woods, Rick Miller in Edmonton-Rutherford, and Bruce Miller in Edmonton-Glenora. Some of these are good candidates, but certainly not new.
A new face in the next election, Wildrose leader Danielle Smith has floated in conservative political circles since the 1990s and two of her party’s four MLAs have been in the Assembly for more than a decade. The “nascent” or “rookie” Alberta Party has existed in various forms since the 1980s and their leader Glenn Taylor ran for the NDP in the 1997 election.
Refusing to believe that new will ever be old or old will ever be new, the New Democrats have put a fresh face on an veteran politician. NDP leader Brian Mason has a fresh face – at least for the short-term – as he has shaved his mustache for Movember to raise awareness about prostate cancer. Mr. Mason has told the media that his trademark cookie-duster will return, meaning that once again, old will be new again.
The new face of Alberta NDP leader Brian Mason (sans mustache).
Jim Sheasgreen, former Mayor of the City of Fort Saskatchewan, has announced his intention to seek the Progressive Conservative nomination in the Fort Saskatchewan-Vegrevilleconstituency.
Mr. Sheasgreen served as Mayor from 2004 until 2010 and on City Council from 2001 until 2004. In 2010, Mr. Sheasgreen was defeated by current Mayor Gale Katchur.
Also seeking the PC nomination in this constituency is Strathcona County Councillor Jacquie Fenske.
The constituency has been represented by outgoing-Premier Ed Stelmach since it was created in 2004 and the area had previously been represented by both Liberal and PC MLAs. If elected, Mr. Sheasgreen will be the second former Mayor of Fort Saskatchewan to represent the area in the Assembly in recent history. Former Mayor Muriel Abdurahman represented the former Clover Bar-Fort Saskatchewan constituency as a Liberal MLA from 1993 until 1997.
According to FortRadio.com, the PC nomination in this constituency is scheduled to be held in Lamont on January 26, 2012.
(Thanks to Scott for the heads up on this story)
UPDATE: According to the Over Easy Please blog, Vegreville Mayor Richard Coleman has also entered the nomination contest. The OEP blog also reports that Tofield Mayor Nabil Chehayeb and Mundare Mayor Mike Saric have expressed interest in seeking the nomination, but have not officially joined the contest.
Hastily prepared in the final months of Premier Ed Stelmach‘s term in office, the construction of the new Royal Alberta Museum had political legacy project written all over it. This is why it should not come as such a shock that the funding for the project is in jeopardy since Mr. Stelmach left office in early October.
Announced on April 7, 2011, the new museum was expected to cost $340 million, including $180 million over the first three years of the project which was expected to include $30 million in previously committed federal dollars (see below).
On June 6, 2011, the Government of Alberta began to search for designers and builders for the new museum. Submissions for design concepts were officially opened on July 4, 2011, and on August 18, 2011 the provincial government announced that four designs had been submitted.
In the August 18 media release, then-Culture Minister Lindsay Blackett said “the exterior design of the new Royal Alberta Museum must be such as to compel Albertans and our guests to visit and experience the facility for the first time.”
The winning design had all the aura and sophistication of a prairie warehouse.
On October 1, 2011, members of the Progressive Conservative Association selected Alison Redford to replace Premier Stelmach as their leader. The Tories selected Alberta’s new Premier and with a new leader came new priorities.
Politically, it is easy to see why both the new provincial administraion and the federal government are not especially excited about funding the project and neither want to look like the bad guy by cancelling it. The uncertainty of a portion of the funds may have made this situation a political inevitability, and an easy way out of putting the project on the backburner.
The first envelope included $30 million from $55.2 million that had been allocated by the federal government to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the founding of the province of Alberta in 2005. The envelope was announced by then-Edmonton MP and Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan in a media release from Western Economic Diversification Canada:
WD will deliver the $55.2 million in federal centennial funding allocated to capital legacy projects that Albertans and visitors alike can enjoy. Projects selected for funding include the Provincial Museum of Alberta, the Edmonton Art Gallery and the Glenbow Museum.
The funding source that may cause the mothballing of the new museum project was expected to come in the form of $92 million from the Building Canada Fund, which was apparently a not very reliable source of funding (which perhaps should not be surprising considering how rushed the process was).
Tomorrow morning, I will be participating in Mayor Stephen Mandel‘s Arts Visioning Committee Recommendation Review Session. I am sure that the funding for the new Royal Alberta Museum will be a topic of discussion among the participants (as well as City Council’s vote to allocate more than $450 million to support the proposed Katz Group Arena – more on that later).
Premier Redford’s first moves appear to be geared towards taking away the most controversial issues that the opposition parties have gained traction on in the last year’s of Stelmach’s premiership.
A recently released Angus Reid online survey (to be taken with a grain of salt, of course) conducted between October 17 to October 19, 2011, revealed an interesting snapshot and positive news for Premier Redford:
The online survey shows Premier Redford with a 55% approval rating, twenty-points higher than her closest opponent, Wildrose Party leader Ms. Smith. The three main opposition leaders, including Ms. Smith, registered higher leadership disapproval ratings than approval ratings among those surveyed.
The online survey shows the Tories leading in support across the province, with the Wildrose placing second in Calgary and rural Alberta, and the Liberals essentially tied with the NDP for second in Edmonton. The Alberta Party barely registers in the online survey, showing only 2% support province-wide and 4% in Calgary.
The online survey also suggested that the selection of Dr. Sherman as their leader has not cured the Liberal Party of their electoral ills. Of those surveyed who identified themselves as having voted Liberal in 2008, when that party was led by Edmonton-Riverview MLA Kevin Taft, only 56% said that they would vote Liberal if an election were held tomorrow.
Redford may be besting Ms. Smith in the world of online surveys, but that does not mean the Wildrose has been plucked. At a fundraiser in Calgary, Ms. Smith attracted an audience of more than 1,100 people, leaving some politicos to suspect the Wildrose raised more than $400,000 in one night (more than any of the other opposition parties could dream of). Despitenumerousbumpsin theirnominationprocess, the Wildrose Party is continuing to nominate candidates across the province with now close to 60 of 87 on the ground.
Even the NDP, who have showed up perpetually in third place over the past two decades, are looking better prepared for an election than they have in recent memory and will soon have just as many candidates nominated as the Wildrose.
Of course, even a week is an eternity in politics, and with an election expected sometime early in 2012 there is much that can change. Polls and surveys provide useful snapshots, but campaigns matter.
Tory MLAs gather for the traditional game musical chairs to choose the new Cabinet.
Do you think Gary Mar left a draft cabinet list in the Premier’s Office when he was measuring the drapes? Because Premier Alison Redford found it.
We were told to expect big changes, that many “household names” would be dropped from cabinet, but as they enter their new jobs, Premier Alison Redford‘s cabinet looks like one that should have been made by her main leadership opponent Gary Mar.
Edmonton-Rutherford MLA Fred Horne‘s appointment as Minister of Health and Wellness and Ron Liepert‘s appointment as Finance Minister means that there will be no serious judicial inquiry into the intimidation of health care workers. Minister Liepert’s promotion from Energy to Finance is surprising considering that only last week he was openly defying Premier Redford on the need for a health care inquiry. Both Mr. Horne and Mr. Liepert were strong supporters of Mr. Mar in the leadership contest and would have likely ended up in similar positions had he not been defeated on the third ballot vote on October 1.
It has yet to be seen what new powers Minister Liepert will hold as Finance Minister. Remember that in recent cabinets, the President of the Treasury Board has held considerable sway over the province’s purse-strings. This could mean that ‘Liepert the Hound‘ could turn into ‘Liepert the Pup‘ when dealing with the current Treasury Board President and Deputy Premier Doug Horner.
A map of the constituencies represented by members of Alberta's new cabinet.
Former Finance Minister Ted Morton is moving into the Energy Minister’s office, an area where he will be comfortable defending the province’s record on oil sands development. New Education Minister Thomas Lukaszuk is a cabinet lightweight who will have to be a quick study if he wants to survive in his new job. He and Premier Redford started things off right this afternoon with the announcement adding $100 million into the education budget today. Both Minister Morton and Minister Lukaszuk supported Mr. Mar on the final ballot of the PC leadership contest.
The appointment of Battle River-Wainwright MLA Doug Griffiths as Minister of Municipal Affairs could turn out to be an interesting choice. Minister Griffiths, who was defeated on the first ballot of the PC leadership contest and has never served in cabinet, comes with both inexperience and an open-mind. Despite his rural pedigree, I would not discount his ability to build relationships with the group of young municipal leaders who have been elected in recent years, including Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi and Edmonton City Councillor Don Iveson.
The appointment of Edmonton-Whitemud MLA and long-time cabinet minister Dave Hancock (also a Mar loyalist) as Minister of the new Human Services super-ministry is a smart choice. Minister Hancock is a seasoned govern0r who may be the only MLA who can help weave and organize this newly formed portfolio, which includes Children and Youth Services, Employment and Immigration (except for immigration), Homelessness, Alberta Supports (from Seniors and Community Supports).
Rewarded for his most (if only) significant political decision is backbench MLA Art Johnston, who was appointed Parliamentary Assistant to Executive Council (which means he gets to carry Premier Redford’s briefing binder in the Assembly). Mr. Johnston was the only MLA to support Ms. Redford on the first ballot of the PC leadership vote.
Some much needed new blood around the cabinet table includes Drayton Valley-Calmar MLA Diana McQueen as Minister of Environment and Water, Calgary-Montrose MLA Manmeet Bhullar as Minister of Service Alberta, Athabasca-Redwater MLA Jeff Johnson as Minister of Infrastructure, and Red Deer-South MLA Cal Dallas as Minister of International, Intergovernmental and Aboriginal Relations.
Notable cabinet ministers joining the great unwashed masses in the Tory backbenches include Sherwood Park MLA Iris Evans, Vermilion-Lloydminster MLA Lloyd Snelgrove, Innisfail-Sylvan Lake MLA Luke Ouellette, Edmonton-Mill Creek MLA Gene Zwozdesky, Calgary-Cross MLA Yvonne Fritz, Calgary-Shaw MLA Cindy Ady, and Medicine Hat MLA Rob Renner. It would not be surprising to see these now backbench MLAs and others decide to collect their million dollar severance packages and not stand in the next election.
Not to be unexpected, it did not take long for the rumour mill to start suggesting what next steps these former cabinet ministers might take. If he is not retiring, one rumour I heard today suggests that Mr. Zwozdesky may seek re-election and challenge Speaker Ken Kowalski for his position in the Assembly after the next election.
Avoiding one of former Premier Ed Stelmach‘s first mistakes, this cabinet reaches a respectable geographical balance. Four cabinet minister each from Calgary and Edmonton and the remaining twelve spread across the province.
I have made the following updates to the list of declared and nominated candidates preparing to stand in the next provincial general election, now expected in 2012:
Airdrie: Bryan Young is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13.
Calgary-Acadia: Nick Lepora is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13.
Calgary-Bow: Jason Nishiyama is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13. Mr. Nishyama was the NDP candidate in Calgary-Montrose in the 2004 provincial election and in Calgary-Egmont in the 2008 provincial election.
Calgary-Cross: Preet Sihota is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13. Sihota was the NDP candidate in Calgary-McCall in the 2001, 2004, and 2008 provincial elections.
Calgary-Currie: Robert Scobel is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13. Mr. Scobel was the NDP candidate in this constituency in the 2008 provincial election.
Calgary Elbow: Craig Coolahan is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13.
Calgary-Fish Creek: Erik Levitt is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13. Mr. Levitt was the NDP candidate in this constituency in the 2004 and 2008 provincial elections.
Calgary-Foothills: Jenn Carkner is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13.
Calgary-Glenmore: Richard Collier is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13.
Calgary-Hays: Regina Vergara is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13.
Calgary-Lougheed: Brent Kelly is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13.
Calgary-Shaw: Brandon Beasley is seeking the Alberta Party nomination and Ashley Fairall is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13.
Calgary-West: Mary Nokleby is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13.
Edmonton-Castle Downs: Jeff Funnell, businessman and chairperson of St. Charles Parent Council, is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Two-time federal NDP candidate Brian Labelle is seeking the NDP nomination on October 12.
Edmonton-McClung: Real Estate agent Lorne Dach is seeking the NDP nomination on October 13. Mr. Dach was the NDP candidate in this constituency in 2001 and 2004.
Edmonton-Meadowlark – Bridget Stirling is seeking the NDP nomination on October 12. Ms. Stirling was the NDP candidate in Edmonton-McClung in the 2008 provincial election.
Edmonton-Whitemud– Julia Necheff, a former Canadian Press reporter and writer for Faculty of Medicine at the University of Alberta, is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville: Strathcona County Councillor Jacquie Fenske has announced that she will seek the Progressive Conservative nomination to replace current MLA and outgoing Premier Ed Stelmach in the next provincial election.
Lacombe-Ponoka: Local Rancher and Agricultural Policy Specialist Tony Jeglum is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.
Livingstone-Macleod: Matthew Halton is seeking the NDP nomination.
Red Deer-South: Red Deer College Professor Serge Gingras is seeking the Alberta Party nomination.
Alberta Premier-Designate Alison Redford at an all-candidates forum in Vermilon on July 21, 2011.
Alberta politics became a little more exciting in the early hours of Sunday, October 2, 2011 when the sharp-minded former Justice Minister and human rights lawyer Alison Redford defied critics, but not readers of this blog, by defeating front-runner Gary Mar in the PC leadership contest. Ms. Redford will become Alberta’s first woman Premier when she is sworn-in to her new office in the coming days. She also rides into victory carrying a banner that promises change to her party members and Albertans.
One of her first challenges will be to build a new provincial cabinet.
Without many endorsements from her fellow MLAs, Ms. Redford may have more freedom to pick and choose the members of the next cabinet. Her win was a strike against the PC Party establishment that lined up behind Mr. Mar, so it will not be surprising to see a significant cabinet shuffle after she officially enters her office.
It is too early to know who will be in cabinet for sure, but there are a number of political indicators that we can use to speculate. Former Deputy Premier Doug Horner, who placed third in the leadership contest and whose supporters helped push Ms. Redford over the top on the run-off vote will likely grab a key cabinet spot. Remaining in cabinet because of their political strength on the ground (as proved by the total number of memberships sold in their constituencies) should be Lac La Biche-St. Paul MLA Ray Danyluk and Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Dave Hancock.
Uncertain futures lie ahead for former Finance Minister Ted Morton and Battle River-Wainwright MLA Doug Griffiths, who both endorsed Mr. Mar after they were eliminated from the first ballot vote on September 17, 2011. It should be noted that both their campaign managers endorsed Ms. Redford, as did voters in their constituencies in the October 1, 2011 vote.
To reinforce the message of change that Ms. Redford reminded PC Party members of in her victory speech, she will need to clean out some of the dead wood in the current provincial cabinet. This will mean smaller offices and salary cuts for some cabinet ministers, including loyalists of outgoing Premier Ed Stelmach.
Also significant to watch along with a new cabinet team will be the appointment and shuffling of Deputy Ministers. These top public servants are the professionals who can spell the key to success or failure for a new cabinet minister and can also signal the direction in which a government wishes to drive an agenda.
Ms. Redford ran a policy heavy campaign, of which two of the main issues were education and health care. She announced the restoration of funding to rehire the thousand teachers who were laid off only months ago. The campaign also highlighted her support for the public health care system in order to differentiate her from front-runner Mr. Mar, who came out strongly in support of privatized healthcare earlier in the campaign. Alberta may be fertile ground for conservative political movements, but the results of the PC leadership contest reinforces the position that those same conservative party members also support a strong public health care system.
Like her opponent, Mr. Mar, she has committed to represent the Government of Alberta at congressional hearings being held in Washington D.C. about the controversial Keystone XL pipeline on October 7, 2011. Increased international attention on the oilsands and our province’s environmental record has created a new challenge that the previous government struggled to handle. It will be interesting to watch what kind of approach Ms. Redford’s government will take to defending Alberta’s record in natural resource extraction.
Ms. Redford’s selection as Premier has already made Alberta politics more exciting and unpredictable. Opposition leaders Danielle Smith, Raj Sherman, Brian Mason, and Glenn Taylor will not be given a chance to challenge Ms. Reford during a Fall session of the Assembly, which will be delayed while the new Premier legitimately prepares a Legislative agenda for 2012. They will have to take to the airwaves, newspapers, and twittersphere with their criticisms.
With a provincial general election expected next year, Ms. Redford will have less than a year to prove that she can walk the talk when it comes to changing attitudes and politics within her forty-year governing Progressive Conservative Party. It is going to be interesting to watch!
Supporters of Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership candidate Gary Mar are tapping into the large group of Ukrainian-Canadians who helped Ed Stelmach win his party’s leadership in 2006. Elaine Kalynchuk, a prominent member of the Ukrainian-Canadian community in Edmonton and VP Membership of the Edmonton-Whitemud PC Association, sent this email in support of Mr. Mar over the list-serve for the Ukrainian Canadian Congress in Edmonton on Friday, September 23.
Ms. Kalynchuk’s email may be indicative of a split in support in the politically powerful Ukrainian-Canadian community. Former Deputy Premier Doug Horner has earned strong support from MLAs in rural constituencies with a high Ukrainian-Canadian population (Ray Danyluk in Lac La Biche-St. Paul, Jeff Johnson in Athabasca-Redwater, and Genia Leskiw in Bonnyville-Cold Lake) and performed strongly on the September 17 first ballot vote in these constituencies and in Premier Stelmach’s Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville constituency. Meanwhile in Edmonton, Mr. Mar drew strong support on the first ballot vote in constituencies where Premier Stelmach drew support from Ukrainian-Canadian voters in 2006.
Here is Ms. Kalynchuk’s email to subscribers of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress email list-serve:
From: Infosource
Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2011 22:22:05 -0600
To: <11>; <14>
Subject: PC Party of Alberta Leadership Endorsement – Gary Mar
Вітаю!
I hereby endorse Mr. Gary Mar as leadership candidate for the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta. After putting a lot of thought into this decision and interacting with Gary on numerous occasions, it is very clear to me that he is our best candidate to lead Alberta into the future.
I was quickly impressed by the people that Gary attracted to his team – a diverse group of passionate Albertans. Gary recognizes the importance of hard work, honesty, integrity and honouring your word in all aspects of life. He is very approachable and listens to what everyone has to say. The way he deals with people demonstrates his strong leadership style. I have full confidence that Gary will continue to make excellent choices when elected PC Leader.
Gary has a tremendous wealth of experience in government, as well as the private sector. He served as Minister of Health and Wellness, Education, Environment, International and Intergovernmental Relations and Community Development. Most recently, Gary served in Washington D.C. as Alberta’s official representative to the United States.
Gary is smart, professional, well-spoken and visionary. He knows about Alberta’s most pressing issues and has the experience to initiate the change we want and deserve. Gary is the leader we need to navigate our province into a fast-changing and global future.
I truly hope you join me in taking out a PC membership and supporting Gary Mar for PC Leader on September 17, 2011. To find out how to buy a membership and vote or to volunteer, visit Gary’s website at www.garymar.ca.
Sincerely,
Elaine Kalynchuk
Former Board Member, Ukrainian Canadian Congress-Alberta Provincial Council
Former Board Member, Canada Ukraine Development Association
Team Member, Alberta Ukraine Genealogical Project
Board Member, Canadian International Council, Edmonton Branch
(Thanks to reader Jeff for passing along this email)
The August 30, 1971 election saw the Lougheed Tories edge out Premier Harry Strom‘s Social Credit by a narrow vote (296,934 votes to 262,953 votes) that was not reflected in the number of MLAs each party elected (49 PC MLAs and 25 Social Credit MLAs). The NDP also landed their first solid beachhead in the Assembly with the election of leader Grant Notley in the northern Spirit River-Fairview constituency. The only party leader to not win a seat in the Assembly was Liberal leader Bob Russell, who placed third in St. Albert.
The PCs have not survived as one of the most successful political organizations in Canada by being nice guys. While driven by a vague set of principles, Alberta’s natural governing entity is essentially an amorphous blob on the subject of policy, following trends and public opinion – straddling the ideological centre while appeasing the various corners of its very large political tent. This positioning has allowed the PC Party to appeal to a wide-range of Albertans, who already largely self-identify as “conservative.” Being the sure bet for an election win has also helped the PC Party recruit talented candidates from across the political spectrum and build strong (and well-funded) local organizations across the province.
The PC Party is also ruthless on the subject of keeping its hold on power. As PC members vote select a new leader on September 17, 2011 it may be smart for the leadership candidates to reflect on the historical fact that only one PC leader, Premier Lougheed, was allowed to leave gracefully on his own time. Each leader following Premier Lougheed – Don Getty, Ralph Klein, and Ed Stelmach – were in one way or another shown the door when they appeared to be a threat to the PC Party’s continued political success.
During the 2004 provincial election, then-Premier Ralph Klein was criticized for claiming that there was rampant abuse in the program. He then told the media that “severely normal” people do not want to talk about AISH.
2. Gary Mar attempted to grab headlines about Edmonton’s recent streak of murders by criticizing the Safe Communities Initiative, initiated by Premier Ed Stelmach and former Justice Minister Redford. Ms. Redford rebutted Mr. Mar’s criticism of the Safe Communities Initiative by listing statistics showing Youth Crime in Calgary down by 25% and that crime in Canada is at its lowest since 1973.
3. While Ms. Redford and Mr. Mar are two candidates most likely to be branded as Calgarians, southerner Ted Morton is has picked up support from six MLAs in the Edmonton area, including some who have deep connections to their cultural communities (which can produce significant amounts of sold memberships).
5. Outgoing Liberal leader David Swannraised concerns about Mr. Mar’s Public-Private Partnership (P3) friendly health care policy and one of Mr. Mar’s leadership campaign’s largest donors Dr. Kabir Jivraj. Dr. Jivraj is the former Chief Medical Officer of the Calgary Health Region and is the founder of AgeCare, a for-profit corporation that provides long-term care for senior citizens.
The poll of 900 Albertans showed that the Progressive Conservatives have once again risen to a dominant position over the opposition parties, including the ambitious Wildrose Party. This is just one poll, and as we learned from the May 2011 Federal Election, campaigns do matter. Keeping this in mind, here are my interpretations of what the poll could mean for Alberta’s political parties:
The results of a recent Calgary Herald-Edmonton Journal poll conducted by Environics.
Progressive Conservatives: The death of the near-forty-year governing PC Party has been greatly exaggerated. The poll shows PC support is above 50% across the province and above 60% with voters over the age of 65 (who show up to vote).
It is difficult to say if support for the Tories will change when they choose their new leader in September or October, but it is clear that the departure of Premier Ed Stelmach is boosting their electoral fortunes. Unless the next PC Party leader (and Premier-Designate) manages to become more unpopular than Premier Stelmach in the next year, it would be easy to see this party return to its dominant status.
Liberal leadership candidates Bill Harvey, Bruce Payne, Raj Sherman, Laurie Blakeman, and Hugh MacDonald
Liberals: These numbers should be very concerning for the Liberal Party, which could possibly be polling at its lowest level of support since before the party returned to the Assembly in the 1986 election. The party is in the midst of a leadership contest and despite opening voting to non-members, it has struggled to get media attention.
The one morsel of comfort that the Liberals can take from this poll is that none of the other opposition parties have been able to capture the imagination of Albertans. If they choose the right leader in their September 10 vote, they may be able to survive the coming electoral storm.
The poll shows the NDP are the second choice among voters between the ages of 18 and 24 (30.9%), and of voters outside of Calgary and Edmonton. In Edmonton, the NDP’s traditional seat of strength in Alberta, the party is polling near the same level of support it received in the last provincial election. The question is whether current NDP leader Brian Mason is the right person to capitalize on this bump.
Wildrose leader Danielle Smith
Wildrose: This poll will put a sour face on the most strident Wildrose supporter. I speculated earlier this month that the Wildrose may have reached the peak of their support in 2010 and this poll certainly suggests that this may be the case.
The departure of Premier Stelmach this fall appears to have removed the lightening rod that turned the Wildrose into a political force in 2010. Forming government looks further away now than it did a year ago, but the Wildrose is still in a better financial and organization position than the other opposition parties. They may have to get used to the sound of the words “Official Opposition Leader Danielle Smith.”
Alberta Party MLA Dave Taylor and leader Glenn Taylor
Alberta Party: This is poll has no good news for the Alberta Party (and almost no news at all). This poll should be a signal to this party that they should focus their electoral efforts on supporting candidates in two or three constituencies across Alberta, the most obvious being their leader Glenn Taylor in West Yellowhead, MLA Dave Taylor in Calgary-Currie, and former acting-leader Sue Huff in Edmonton-Glenora.
The game of funding billionaire Daryl Katz‘s contentious downtown Edmonton arena proposal entered the provincial political arena this week with candidates in the Progressive Conservative leadership contest and an opposition politician dancing around this delicate issue. Supporters of the Katz downtown arena, including Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel, are stalking the provincial leadership candidates for commitments to hand over provincial tax dollars to fill an extra $100 million gap to construct the project on top of the $125 million from taxes on surrounding development and other municipal funds.
In front of a crowd of more than 350 supporters in Vermilion last week, the PC leadership candidates balked at the idea of using provincial funding to support the construction of the privately-operated downtown arena.
A day later, conservative crusader Ted Morton astonishingly floated the bizarre idea that the capital region hold a referendum to add one per cent to Goods and Services Tax (a “penny tax”) for two years in order to pay for the Katz downtown arena. This proposal is problematic at its most basic (including the fact that the GST is a federal tax).
Ted Morton wants to raise the GST to help a billionaire?
After being incorrectly reported as supporting a tax increase to fund the arena, Alison Redfordissued a statement setting the record straight that she opposes any provincial direct funding or a dedicated tax. Former Deputy Premier Doug Hornerruled out direct funding from the provincial government.
In Vermilion, Gary Mar reaffirmed his previous position that the Katz downtown arena will not receive any provincial funding if he becomes Premier.
Never too far away to deliver a soundbite, Wildrose leader Danielle Smith issued a hastily written media release during a stop in Peace River calling for a lottery to fill the $100 million gap.
Premier Ed Stelmach suggested that Mayor Mandel look to existing funds in the already allocated funds from the Municipal Sustainability Initiative (MSI) to fill the gap. Using MSI funds to find $100 million for the Katz downtown arena could mean diverting already promised towards the construction and maintenance of public infrastructure such as roads, public transit, and community halls.
While the City of Edmonton will technically “own” the new downtown arena, Mr. Katz, the billionaire owner of the Edmonton Oilers, will collect the revenue generated at the arena.
Meanwhile, Mr. Katz remains conspicuously missing from this public funding debate (perhaps he is hanging out with his millionaire friendGary Bettman).
