Too much ink has already been spent on James Cameron‘s visit to Alberta, but I could not let the day end without mentioning the front cover of today’s Edmonton Sun. “Hilariously nonsensical” is how a good friend of mine described it. A very apt description.
James Cameron & the Avatarsands.
Premier Ed Stelmach is facing criticism for acting like a “starstruck teenager” after receiving an invitation to take film director James Cameron on a tour of Alberta’s oil sands. While I doubt that the Ed “Hollywood” Stelmach label will stick, the Premier’s response does show how eager the PCs have become in taking any opportunity to challenge the international criticism of Alberta’s energy beach. (Will fish be on the lunch menu?)
Brian Mason’s “Just trust me” tour.
NDP MLA Brian Mason made two announcements this week in his and MLA Rachel Notley‘s “Earning your trust” tour across Alberta. In Calgary Edmonton last week, the NDP leader announced a fiscal plan, pledging that an NDP government would balance Alberta’s budget in one year. The NDP leader also announced support for the construction of a post-secondary institution in the Town of Hinton. The NDP are not going to form government or gain wide-spread support in Alberta anytime soon but I have to give that party’s two MLAs credit for being the only party on their side of the political spectrum to be making policy announcements.
Envision Bonnyville/Edson/etc.
Ethical questions have been raised since it was made public that the lobby group opposing the redevelopment of Edmonton’s City Centre Airport lands were asking for financial contributions from northern Alberta municipalities to help fund its campaign. According to news reports, Envision Edmonton asked a number of municipalities for funds, including the Town of Edson, which turned down their request for $10,000 in public funds. The Town of Bonnyville initially said yes, but needs to ratify the decision once again since the lobby group’s plebiscite petition was ruled invalid. (Kudos to Paula Simons who wrote an excellent column on this subject).
Envision Wildrose
There is an important political question about how much the Wildrose Alliance, which has endorsed the Envision Edmonton lobby group, is using this issue to promote their own political agenda. Bonnyville Mayor Ernie Isley told the Bonnyville Nouvelle in a recent interview that ‘his goal in life is to do everything possible in the next two years to elect a Wildrose government next election.’ ‘everything possible.’
Legislature Staffers standing in the municipal election.
Two political staffers at the Alberta Legislature are trying to make the jump to municipal politics this fall. NDP Caucus Research Director Sarah Hoffman is challenging Edmonton Public School Board Trustee George Rice in Ward G. Wildrose Caucus staffer James Johnson is running against City Councillor Jane Batty in Edmonton’s downtown Ward 6. Calgary-Buffalo Liberal MLA Kent Hehr dropped out of the Calgary Mayoral contest last week.
Next Provincial Election.
I have started a list of candidate nominated to stand in the next provincial election (I have also created a link to the list in the bar above). By my count, the Wildrosers have nominated 9 candidates, the NDP 2, and the Liberals will nominate their first candidate on October 2. I will try to keep the list up to date, so please email daveberta.ca@gmail.com if there are additions to the list.
Read more in the Alberta Politics Notes archive.
As I blogged yesterday, Edmonton’s City Clerk Alayne Sinclair has found the petition opposing the redevelopment of the City Centre Airport lands to be invalid. According to the City Clerk, the petition spearheaded by the Envision Edmonton lobby group did not have the required number of valid signatures required to trigger a plebiscite. Under the Municipal Government Act, the petition would have also needed to have been submitted within 60 days of the original decision to be considered valid. City Councillors voted in June 2009 for the phased closure of the City Centre Airport. Councillors re-affirmed their decision yesterday when they voted 10-3 not to include a ballot question in the October 18, 2010 elections.
Not enough valid signatures
According to the City Clerk’s office, the petition would need to have 78,244 valid signatures in order to force a plebiscite on the issue. After Envision Edmonton submitted their petition on August 27, the City Clerk ruled that only 73,657 of the signatures on the petition were valid.
Envision Edmonton’s reaction
Following the City Clerk’s announcement, Envision Edmonton Chairman Charles Allard accused the city of trying to “weasel” out of holding a plebiscite. Mr. Allard’s accusation is disappointing and reeks of the kind of entitlement that many of the City Centre Airport’s supporters do not deserve to be associated with.
Envision Edmonton should be commended for having collected the number of signatures that they did, as it is no easy task to collect that many. At the same time, they owed it to their supporters to have fully understood and accepted the laws that outline the process when they began collecting signatures.
A large unanswered question is what Envision Edmonton will do with the money that they raised and advertising space they have purchased in the expectation that their petition would trigger a plebiscite? Will the lobby group accept that their petition was not valid under provincial law or will it shift its deep pockets and resources to support challengers to the Mayor and Councillors who support redeveloping the City Centre Airport lands? With nomination day approaching soon (Monday, September 20), the Mayor and many incumbent Councillors are facing minimal opposition and some less than credible candidates.
City Council
“You have to meet certain standards and those standards were not met” Mayor Stephen Mandel.
Following a long debate yesterday afternoon, Councillors voted 10-3 to not allow an exception to the rules and leave the City Centre Airport question off the ballot. This was the same number of Councillors who voted for and against the phased closure of the City Centre Airport in June 2009. Councillors like Don Iveson did not shy away from their decision to both support the phased closure in 2009 and oppose the ballot question in 2010.
I’ll stand for re-election on a record of decisions I’ve made, including and especially #ecca closure. #yegcc #yegvote – Councillor Don Iveson on Twitter
While I am continually confused why Councillors Tony Caterina and Ron Hayter are opposing the closure, I can respect the position that Councillor Linda Sloan has taken in support of continued medevac flights into the City’s core. While it may be a bit of a red herring, it is a legitimate concern. Councillor Kim Krushell told the Edmonton Journal that Alberta Health Services will not move their medevac services until a suitable establishment has been constructed at the Edmonton International Airport.
Mayoral effects
The lack of a City Centre Airport related plebiscite question on the ballot could spell a short end for some Mayoral challengers. Candidate David Dorward, who is suspected to have Envision Edmonton’s support, announced his campaign earlier this week. If Envision Edmonton is to pour their funds into a candidate’s war-chest, it will likely be Mr. Dorward’s.
Second-time Mayoral candidate Don Koziak based a large part of his campaign on opposing the redevelopment of the airport. Mr. Koziak is scheduled to hold a press conference today at 11:00am. It is obvious that he will discuss today’s news about the invalid petition and there are also rumours that he may drop out of the Mayoral race to seek a seat on City Council. Update: Mr. Koziak has dropped out the Mayoral race to challenge Councillor Krushell in Ward 2. This will be Mr. Koziak’s fifth attempt at running for City Council (he ran unsuccessfully for Council in 1995, 1998, and 2004, and for Mayor in 2007).
Provincial interference?
After meeting with Mr. Allard on September 7, Premier Ed Stelmach said that he supported the lobby group’s recommendation that the Health Quality Council should review the possible impact on medevac services before the Airport was closed. The Provincial Government may not have any official ability to prevent the closure and Premier Stelmach has been careful not to interfere too overtly in municipal affairs since entering the Office in 2006.
Only one PC MLA, Doug Elniski, whose Edmonton-Calder constituency includes the airport lands, has been vocal in support of Envision Edmonton’s petition. Edmonton-Gold Bar Liberal MLA Hugh MacDonald and Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood NDP MLA Brian Mason have expressed support for the petition, as has the Wildrose Alliance caucus.
What’s next?
The drive to force a plebiscite opposing the City Centre Airport redevelopment was essentially the Envision Edmonton lobby group last ditch effort at using a democratic mechanism to stop the closure. While there will be not ballot question on October 18, the lobby group could very likely throw their support and endorsement behind some of the aforementioned candidates for Mayor and Council. Strategy wise, it really appears that the lobby group was unprepared for their petition to be ruled invalid. These time constraints will limit their choices of legitimate candidates if they decide to support and endorse candidates of their choosing.
On August 27, I wrote that I was looking forward to sharing why I support the redevelopment of the City Centre Airport lands and why I believe our City will benefit from this redevelopment. While yesterday’s decision will allow me to focus less on the specifics of the City Centre Airport lands, I am still looking forward to writing about the challenges and opportunities for redevelopment and new ideas in our City’s urban core. There are a broad range of issues that are going to play a defining role in shaping our City and communities in the next decades. Without a single ballot issue dominating the headlines, there will be a lot of room for Edmontonians to have a serious debate about how our City will grow – schools, public transit, infrastructure, crime, economy, and urban sprawl – let us have an election that focuses on these real quality of life issues.
– Residents of Sherwood Park are rightfully angry to discover that their long-promised hospital is not actually a hospital. Councillor Jason Gariepy had his computer access and blackberry service cut off after he sent an email criticizing a Strathcona County media release. The release quoted Strathcona County Mayor Cathy Olesen praising the County’s two PC MLAs Minister Iris Evans and Dave Quest. Councillor Linda Osinchuk, who is challenging Mayor Olesen, is less pleased.
– In a 2004 interview with the Edmonton Journal, Minister Evans listed bringing “a 24-hour emergency medical care facility to Sherwood Park” as the first of her top three priorities. Since that time, she has served as Minister of Health and Minister of Finance.
– Alberta Health Services has re-announced the opening of 132 beds in Calgary this week. The beds were originally announced on June 25, 2010.
– Premier Ed Stelmach joined Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall, Quebec Premier Jean Charest, and federal Environment Minister Jim Prentice for dinner with US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi this week. The Pembina Institute‘s Marlo Reynolds met with Speaker Pelosi the next day.
– It is official. The Fall Sitting of the Alberta Legislature will begin on October 25.
– Canadian Rockies Public School Trustee Esmé Comfort has written an excellent letter in the Rocky Mountain Outlook about why school trustee work is important for community. The Public School Boards Association of Alberta has also published an excellent letter about the importance of trusteeship and the democratic process.
– NDP MLA Rachel Notley believes that public school fees would be less if the government stopped funding private schools.
– The Wildrose Alliance has released their Education policy.
– An MLA committee conference call caught some comments by Calgary-Buffalo Liberal MLA and Mayoral candidate Kent Hehr about fellow Mayoral candidate Barb Higgins.
– Earlier this week, Mr. Higgins’ campaign manager Donn Lovett shoved Naheed Nenshi supporter Stephen Carter at a campaign event. Mr. Lovett apologized after word of the altercation spread on Twitter.
– Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel launched his website, Twitter, and Facebook campaign.
– Rod Love is now lobbying on License Plate Branding.
– Elections Alberta is currently recruiting Returning Officers and Elections Clerks in seven constituencies for the next provincial election.
Read more in the Alberta Politics Notes archive.
A recent peer-reviewed study from researchers including University of Alberta Professor David Schindler has raised some serious questions about the level of oil sands caused toxins in the Athabasca River and the regime that is supposed to monitor these toxin levels. Speaking to the media, Dr. Schindler offered some strong words against claims by the government and industry that the toxin levels are natural.
Environment Minister Rob Renner responded by telling reporters that his scientists have told him that the amount of compounds detected in the Athabasca River are “not a concern and are of insignificant levels.” Liberal leader David Swann and NDP MLA Rachel Notley jumped on the opportunity and offered their support for Dr. Schindler’s report. Wildrose Alliance MLAs have remained suspiciously silent on this important environmental debate.
The Stand with Fort Chipewyan group reminded Albertans that this is not the first time the toxins issue has been raised:
“When Fort Chipewyan residents demanded the government look into whether oilsands activity was contributing to the community’s high cancer rates, they were denied. They were denied because the government’s monitoring system — R.A.M.P. — indicated that there was no impact.”
And 48 hours after the report became public, Premier Ed Stelmach called for a probe:
“We’ll have the scientists sit down and compare the data. Some of the measurements, I couldn’t explain to you, but let it be discussed scientist to scientist.”
Considering that the provincial government’s current strategy to clean up the oil sands appears to revolve largely on public relations campaigns, it may take much more than simple reassurances from the Premier’s “top men” to resolve this issue:
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– Finance Minister Ted Morton is not ruling out the idea of a Provincial Sales Tax for Alberta. Premier Ed Stelmach says it will not happen as long as he is in office. The Government of Alberta remains in a $4.7 billion deficit.
– Over 500 people packed a hall in Vegreville to voice their opposition to the construction of new electrical transmission lines. Although he is the MLA for this area and was invited to the meeting, Premier Stelmach declined to attend.
– Michael Walters is the new Executive Director of the Alberta Party. Mr. Walters previously served and excelled in his role as Lead Organizer for the Greater Edmonton Alliance from 2004 to 2010.
– Former City Councillors Michael Phair and Patricia Mackenzie have written an excellent opinion-editorial in the Edmonton Journal explaining why they believe redeveloping the City Centre Airport lands will benefit Edmonton.
– Reboot 3.0 is scheduled for November 5 and 6 in Edmonton.
– Jeffrey Coffman is seeking election to Lethbridge City Council. Mr. Coffman previously served as an Alderman from 1995 to 1998 and later as Chief of Staff to MLA Ken Nicol. Bridget Mearns, daughter of Lethbridge-East Liberal MLA Bridget Pastoor, has announced her campaign for Lethbridge City Council. Also in the running is long-time conservative activist and college professor Faron Ellis.
– What motivated Wildrose leader Danielle Smith to jump to the defence of a failing private health clinic?
– Quebec Conservative MP Maxime Bernier has recaped his summer visit to Edmonton and his encounters with Wildrose leader Ms. Smith and Edmonton-Strathcona Conservative candidate Ryan Hastman. Mr. Bernier’s former colleague Ken Epp is now the vice-president of the Strathcona Wildrose Alliance association. Mr. Epp represented the Elk Island and Edmonton-Sherwood Park constituencies from 1993 to 2006.
– Michael Butler has been acclaimed as the federal Liberal candidate in Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont. Mr. Butler has ran twice for the NDP in 2008, federally in Mill Woods-Beaumont and provincially in Edmonton-Rutherford. The riding has been represented by Conservative MP Mike Lake since 2006 after the retirement of long-time Liberal MP David Kilgour.
Read more in the Alberta Politics Notes archive.
“Don’t you come into my living room and piss on my rug.”
President Lyndon Johnson to Prime Minister Lester Pearson
I am not sure if Premier Ed Stelmach will feel the same way as President Johnson, but criticism from the leaders of the three main opposition parties might elicit a similar reaction after tomorrow night’s open forum in Vegreville. The growing backlash from rural landowners over the provincial government-supported expansion of electrical transmission lines is an explosive issue that that rural Tories have slowly become more acutely aware of in recent years. The opposition party leaders certainly want some face-time with these groups that have grown independently of the opposition in the Legislative Assembly. It will be very interesting to see what kind of crowd is drawn in this area that voted overwhelmingly for the Premier in the last election.
Political watchers may note the contact name for this event. Shayne Saskiw is the former VP Policy & Resolutions who joined the Wildrose Alliance in January 2010. When contacted via email, Mr. Saskiw told this blogger that “while I am involved with the WAP, this is not a WAP-sponsored event as we have members from all 4 political parties attending and I am merely a member of one of the subcommittees (legal).”
As of last night, the organizers have not received a confirmation of attendance from the Premier or any government designate.
This morning I enjoyed free pancakes and coffee with around 1000 other Edmontonians at Premier Ed Stelmach‘s 2010 Capital Ex Pancake Breakfast on the south lawn of Alberta’s Legislative Assembly Building. Below are some of the photos I snapped in between my first and second servings of pancakes at 7am this morning. You can see more photos from this morning on the Flickr set Premier’s Capital Ex Pancake Breakfast 2010.
Last week it was revealed that Premier Ed Stelmach left on a vacation to Portugal as flood levels were dramatically rising in south east Alberta.
While Premier Stelmach relaxed in Portugal, no opposition leader – David Swann, Danielle Smith, Brian Mason – took advantage of the Premier’s absence. Was it responsible for the opposition leaders not to show up as to not interfere with any of the emergency responses or was it a missed opportunity to present a political alternative to a region of Alberta that is growing into a hotspot of alienation and local discontent with the Premier?
While water flood levels of the South Saskatchewan river rose around Medicine Hat and heavy rain continued to pour, Premier Ed Stelmach was leaving for a European vacation. In a recent interview on My96fm radio, Premier Stelmach fumbled his way through an explanation of why he and his wife left to vacation in Portugal as the flooding disaster in southeastern Alberta intensified. (Click on the link below to listen to the interview and skip to 1:17 point in the interview).
Listen to the radio interview with Premier Ed Stelmach
I do not begrudge the Premier for taking a vacation, but there are significant symbolic reasons why political leaders show up at disaster areas. Dispatching cabinet ministers to view the damage is not enough. It is a political problem that Premier Stelmach still has not visited the affected areas of southeastern Alberta. As Don Braid wrote, people affected by disasters notice when their elected leader does not even showed up to see it with through his own eyes. Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall has already made a number of trips to the affected areas on his side of the provincial boundary.
This is not the first time that an occupant of the Premier’s Office has been away on leisure while Albertans were waiting for leadership. Premier Ralph Klein went on a fishing trip while Mad Cow Disease was causing Alberta farms to be put under quarantine in 2003 and former Premier Don Getty was discovered to have been “working out of the office” at a golf course during the height of the Principal Group collapse in 1987.
Premier Stelmach’s absence has been noticed and is producing some harsh criticism from the Albertans in this region who have overwhelmingly voted for the PC Party since the mid-1970s.
– The Government of Alberta has purchased +$50,000 newspaper advertisements in Washington DC and written a letter to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton defending the proposed TransCanada Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta to Texas. The pipeline is facing opposition from Democratic Representative Henry Waxman, who currently Chairs the House Energy and Commerce Committee. The provincial government also employs former cabinet minister Gary Mar as a permanent envoy in the American capital and frequently sends cabinet ministers and MLAs to conferences and trade meetings in the United States.
– Members of the United Nurses of Alberta have voted to ratify a new collective agreement that includes a 6%-pay increase over three years. Both the Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald editorial boards have praised the agreement.
– At the age of 40-years, two-term Wood Buffalo Mayor Melissa Blake is a hot political commodity.
– The Alberta PC Party has hired Brent Harding as their Director of Communications.
– The Liberals purchased newspaper ads calling for cooperation with other parties and received cool responses from the NDP and Alberta Party.
– Former MLA Dan Backs is gearing up to run for City Council against Councillor Ed Gibbons. Both men are former MLAs for Edmonton-Manning. Mr. Gibbons sat as a Liberal MLA from 1997 to 2001, and Mr. Backs sat as a Liberal from 2004 until he was ejected from the Opposition caucus in 2006. After being defeated by Peter Sandhu when seeking the PC nomination in 2007, he placed third in his bid for re-election as an Independent in 2008.
– Jim Hillyer has been nominated as the Conservative candidate in Lethbridge for the next federal election. The federal Liberals held their candidate nomination in Edmonton-St. Albert last night.
– Jim Silye has been appointed by Prime Minister Stephen Harper as chair of the board of the Museum of Science and Nature in Ottawa. Mr. Silye served as the Reform Party MP for Calgary-Centre from 1993 until 1997. Mr. Silye was defeated by Wayne Cao in the Calgary-Fort Progressive Conservative candidate nomination in 1997. In 2000, he ran as the PC candidate in Calgary-West against Canadian Alliance MP Rob Anders and Liberal candidate Frank Bruseker.
Read more in the Alberta Politics Notes archive.
While the sacking of Toronto grabbed national attention this weekend, another event captivated political audiences in Alberta. The Wildrose Alliance policy conference in Red Deer drew the kind of crowds that opposition parties in Alberta have not seen since Laurence Decore led the Liberal Party twenty years ago. Around 700 delegates traveled to central Alberta to debate and vote on party policy and an estimated 900 to 1000 people packed the conference hotel to hear leader Danielle Smith deliver her keynote speech on Friday night (video and text).
Starting her speech, she took a direct shot at Speaker Ken Kowalski, who Ms. Smith claimed has been “running roughshot over Alberta’s democracy” for blocking increased funding to the Wildrose caucus. Ms. Smith also directly challenged the integrity of the current government, led by Premier Ed Stelmach.
In what must have been a carefully managed production, delegates rejected some of the more controversial policies (including the right to bear arms). There is no doubt that more extreme conservative elements exist in this party, but under Ms. Smith’s leadership they are very tactfully creating a new image as a moderate conservative alternative to the current governing party.
The Wildroses also announced that it has organized local associations in all 83 constituencies, which is a status that the Liberals and New Democrats would have a difficult time legitimately claiming. With organizations being built on the ground, a large challenge will be for the party to prove that it can attract strong candidates across the province (in 87 new constituencies).
Ms. Smith has yet to convince Albertans that she is ready to lead a government, but she has taken an important step this weekend by grabbing their attention. Let us see if she can hang on to it.
Historic Conservative-Liberal merger “unites the centre-right” in Alberta
Edmonton Morning Star
Page: A1
January 16, 2012
In a move designed to stop a Wildrose Alliance victory in the imminent provincial general election, two long-time political foes have agreed to put aside their differences and form a “coalition of the centre-right.” At a press conference this morning, Progressive Conservative Premier Ed Stelmach and Liberal leader David Swann announced the formation of the electoral coalition.
“As difficult as it might be, we, uh, have decided to, um, work together for Alberta’s future,” said Stelmach. “Uh, the reality is that Alberta’s future will be brighter and stronger when, uh, we work together.”
Recent polling has shown Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Alliance with 35% support across Alberta. The PCs and Liberals have 36% combined support, which they argue will be enough to form government. The Liberals had initially hoped to negotiate electoral cooperation with the NDP and the resurgent Alberta Party, but they began talks with the Tories following the Wildrose Alliance victory in the hotly contested Calgary-Buffalo by-election to replace Liberal MLA Kent Hehr, who was elected Mayor in 2010.
Under the agreement the PC and Liberals will not challenge each others incumbent MLAs. Until the election and if re-elected, Stelmach has appointed Swann as Deputy Premier, former leader Kevin Taft as Minister of Health & Wellness, and Calgary MLA Harry Chase as Minister of Education.
Premier Stelmach told the media that the two parties will run on a five point platform that emphasizes good governance, the economy, the environment, safe communities, and an strong role for Alberta in Canada. Details will be released when the election is called.
“Just as the Liberal Conservative coalition has succeeded in the United Kingdom, Premier Stelmach and I intend to prove that it can work in Alberta,” said Swann. “We intend to protect Albertans from the new and scary Wildrose Alliance.”
Some Liberals were quick to rise up in arms in opposition to the merger, saying it will only drive voters to the NDP and Alberta Party.
Party organizers defended the decision. “Liberals overwhelmingly approved the idea of cooperation with other progressive parties at our last policy convention,” said a Liberal spokesperson. “Cooperation with the Progressive Conservatives will stop the vote splitting the new and scary Wildrose Alliance is depending on.”
Danielle Smith was unavailable for comment, but Wildrose Alliance strategists were quick to attack the announcement as a “merger of convenience.”
“It’s official, Stelmach is the new Trudeau,” boasted the Wildrose Communications Director.
– Alberta’s new Lieutenant Governor was officially installed this week. Colonel (Retired) Donald Ethel is one of Canada’s most decorated Peacekeepers.
– Alberta’s three remaining Senators-in-Waiting have voiced their opposition to Premier Ed Stelmach‘s decision to suspend the Fall 2010 Senate elections.
– Premier Stelmach is travelling to Asia with BC Premier Gordon Campbell and Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall. Liberal leader David Swann will be in Edmonton for his party’s policy convention this weekend. NDP leader Brian Mason is travelling to Calgary.
– Former PC Finance Minister Jim Dinning was recently interviewed by the Globe & Mail.
– Edmonton Councillor Dave Thiele will not seek re-election in the October Municipal elections. Councillor Thiele was first elected in 1998. In the 2007 election, Councillor Thiele was re-elected with 23.4% of the vote in the hotly contested race between five candidates.
– I have been told that Harvey Voogd is collecting signatures to run as a candidate in the new Ward 7. In 2007. Mr. Voogd was the third place candidate in Ward 3. If he does run in Ward 7, Mr. Voogd will face off against Brendan Van Alstine, who has been campaigning for almost a year.
– Heather Mackenzie has announced her candidacy for the Edmonton Public School Board in Ward G. Sadly, one-term Ward C Trustee Sue Huff will not seek re-election.
– Former Saskatchewan MLA Gordon Dirks and former Calgary-West PC MLA Karen Kryczka will not run for re-election to the Calgary Board of Education.
– Edmonton-Strathona NDP MP Linda Duncan has been voted Edmonton’s “Most effective politician” in his year’s SEE Magazine rankings. Runners up are City Councillor Don Iveson (who has placed in the top three since being elected in 2007) and Edmonton-Centre Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman.
– Congratulations to CBC Edmonton Reporter Kim Trynacity, who has been nominated for a Canadian Journalism Award (h/t @PABsurvivor)
Even if someone were to offer me good odds, I would be hesitant to bet on who the real players will be in the next provincial election.
As David Climenhaga recently pointed out, although credible polls continue to show the Progressive Conservatives ahead in voter support, the media has continued to frame Danielle Smith’s Wildrose Alliance as the heir’s to the Legislative throne. For the most part, the free ride has continued.
Young Liberal Vincent St. Pierre has written a blog post ahead the Liberal Party’s May 14-16 policy convention disputing the Wildrose’s claims to be “ready to govern.” While I would also dispute those claims, the Liberals also have a difficult time claiming that they are “ready to govern.”
The focus of the weekend convention is policy, but the big news could be financial. The Alberta Liberal Party is expected to announce shortly that their outstanding debt, much of which was accumulated during their disastrous 2001 election campaign, will finally be paid off. This is a big step for the Liberals, but it is only one of the many challenges facing their organization.
I have been accused by both MLAs and some party loyalists of having an anti-Liberal bent on this blog (one MLA even accused me of conspiring with the NDP) and while I admit to being critical of the Liberal Party, I believe that my assessments have been fair. As someone who was involved with the Liberal Party for many years, including time as a constituency vice-president and a political staffer, I am aware of the political strengths and psychological weaknesses of that organization.
The Liberal Party is in an interesting situation. They might be a beneficiary of a PC-Wildrose vote split in some Edmonton and Calgary constituencies in the next election, but their membership has not exactly been flooded by progressives afraid of the two conservative parties. The departure of MLA Dave Taylor and Kent Hehr‘s decision to run in Calgary’s Mayoral election is not a ringing endorsement of the party’s current fortunes. Can the party attract back into their ranks the sizeable group of Liberals who joined disenchanted Red Tories, moderate New Democrats, and former central Albertan Greens under the new Alberta Party banner? They have been low key, but since March, the Alberta Party has held almost 100 Big Listen meetings across the province.
You do not have to spend too much time inside the Liberal Party to become aware of how iconized the 1993 election is in the minds of party activists. As many Albertans will remember, that election saw former Edmonton Mayor Laurence Decore lead the Liberals to their best showing in decades by winning 39% of the vote and forming official opposition by electing 32 MLAs.
Much of the traditional Liberal motto against large-scale change within their party – especially a name change – has centered around the 1993 vote. “We won 32 seats under Decore and we can do it again,” is something that I have heard countless times. There is no doubt that 17 years ago the Liberals launched an impressive campaign with a slate of candidates who were “ready to govern.” It would be difficult to argue that has been the case since. The Liberals have cultivated reliable support in a handful of constituencies in Calgary, Edmonton, and Lethbridge, but they have had a very difficult time growing their base of support. In most rural areas, the Liberals have run paper candidates in the past three elections, ceding a growing number of constituencies to the PC hegemony.
The decision by the Liberal Party years ago to focus resources on urban areas has opened up the potential of rural success to the Wildrose Alliance, whose leader Ms. Smith has spent months traveling to rural communities and smaller cities meeting with any group that will have her. Her party is now reaping the benefits of gaining media attention from local weekly newspapers, organizing constituency associations, and attracting large crowds to their town hall meetings. Imagine what the political map would look like after the 2011/2012 election if Alberta had an opposition party that could elect candidates in both rural and urban constituencies.
Both the Liberals and NDP have been frustrated by their lack of traction in the polls (and in elections), but neither party appears prepared to change gears to face this reality. Liberal leader David Swann has held town hall meetings across Alberta, as has NDP leader Brian Mason, but there is little evidence that this will lead to an even mediocre rural breakthrough for either party. This is probably less the fault of the current leadership and more the fault of a tradition of political tactics focused on weekly issues and electoral strategies focused on urban enclaves (and the influence of their federal party cousins).
It is difficult to believe that these parties once had long-time MLAs who represented rural constituencies. NDP leader Grant Notley represented the sprawling Spirit River-Fairview from 1971 to 1984. Liberal leader Nick Taylor represented Westlock-Sturgeon and Redwater from 1986 to 1996. Premier Ed Stelmach defeated two-term Vegreville NDP MLA Derek Fox in 1993. The last time either of these two parties elected a candidate in rural Alberta was in 1997 when Liberal MLA Colleen Soetaert was re-elected in Spruce Grove-Sturgeon-St. Albert.
If the Liberal Party is successful in building a policy platform that appeals beyond their traditional base of supporters, will they have an organization on the ground that can translate it into electoral results? Even if they have all the best policy ideas in the world, without feet on the ground it will be very difficult – even with a potential vote split on the right – to reach beyond their traditional base of supporters in this province.
(I will be attending parts of this weekend’s Liberal convention as a media observer, including federal Liberal strategist Warren Kinsella‘s keynote address. Look for updates on this blog and on twitter at @davecournoyer)
