Tag: Daveberta Substack

Liberals win the election but Alberta stays Conservative blue

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 29, 2025

Pierre Poilievre delivers his election night concession speech to supporters (screenshot: Conservative Party of Canada / Facebook)

Conservatives win 34 of 37 seats, Liberals win 2, NDP 1

One of Daveberta’s first rules of Alberta politics is to never underestimate the Conservatives, and that rule appears to have held true last night as votes in the federal election were counted across the province.

At the time I am publishing this, Conservative Party candidates are elected in 34 of 37 ridings in Alberta. This makes them a significant block in what will be a 144 MP Conservative Opposition in Ottawa. This is a larger Conservative caucus than existed before this election but falls far short of the huge majority government the Conservatives were expecting Pierre Poilievre would lead them to only a few months ago. The Liberal Party led by Prime Minister Mark Carney were re-elected with 168 seats, including two in Alberta.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack

🇨🇦 Alberta ridings I’m watching on federal election night in Canada

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 28, 2025

It’s Election Day so don’t forget to vote!

It’s Election Day in Canada and the polls are open from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. in Alberta. If you aren’t one of the 815,131 Albertans who voted in the Advance Polls, then be sure to find your voting station and cast a ballot today.

Alberta Politics

Alberta government almost accidentally auctioned off Gangwon Bell of Friendship

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 24, 2025

With Premier Danielle Smith travelling to South Korea to meet with the Governor of that country’s Gangwon state government this week, I am re-sharing an amusing article I originally published on March 22, 2023. Enjoy!

If you are in the market for used office furniture or old electronics, then the Alberta Government’s online auction website is probably for you. Sometimes you might also find an old piano, intriguing piece of art, mobile trailer or heavily-used ATV, but a few months ago something very unique was put on the government’s auction block: a Bell of Friendship.

This particular Bell of Friendship was gifted to the Government of Alberta in 1981 by the then-Governor of Kangwon-do (known more commonly as Gangwon), South Korea.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Alberta Government’s online auction website, Alberta Politics Substack, Dale Nally, Danielle Smith, Daveberta Substack, Gangwon, Gangwon-Alberta Bell of Friendship, United Conservative Party

Alberta Politics

The final pitch: Who will be the big election winners in Calgary and Edmonton?

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 24, 2025

Jagmeet Singh, Pierre Poilievre, and maybe Mark Carney make final stops in Alberta

Canada’s federal election is four days away and most polls are pointing to a big national victory for Mark Carney’s Liberal Party. While the national polls show the gap between Carney’s party and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives slightly tightening, the Liberal lead in Ontario and Atlantic Canada looks insurmountable unless something drastic happens before April 28.

While most of Alberta’s federal ridings will be solidly Conservative blue on election night, the province’s two biggest cities could produce some interesting results. I haven’t seen any actual riding-level polls, which are both expensive and difficult to conduct, but most national polls show the Liberals with around 30 percent support in Alberta. This would represent the largest percentage of votes for the federal Liberals in Alberta since 1968.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack

Alberta Politics

Vote-splitting in Edmonton Griesbach

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 22, 2025

A campaign mailer from NDP candidate Blake Desjarlais in Edmonton Griesbach (source: Dave Cournoyer)

The Liberal surge in the national polls, which shows the Liberals jumping up to around 30 percent support in Alberta in some polls (the party’s highest levels of support in this province in almost sixty years), has led to a lot of discussion in this campaign about vote-splitting.

“Stop the Split!” was the key message of a recent pamphlet that Blake Desjarlais’ campaign mailed to voters in the riding. The NDP campaign’s message is “Only Blake Desjarlais can defeat Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in Edmonton Griesbach.” The pamphlet doesn’t mention Kerry Diotte, which is interesting, and points out that in the last election the NDP earned 40 percent of the vote, the Conservatives won 37 percent and the Liberals finished third with 13 percent in the riding.

Discussions about vote-splitting in Edmonton, which usually revolve around defeating Conservative candidates, almost always devolve into cringeworthy arguments between Liberal and NDP partisans – which is why I try to avoid them.

Daveberta readers are smart people and it’s not my place to tell you how to vote. The furthest I’ll wade into the vote-splitting debate in my riding today is to say that it’s true that the Liberals are doing very well in the national polls and it’s also true that Desjarlais’ campaign is the better organized of the two main non-Conservative candidates in Edmonton Griesbach.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Alberta Politics Substack, Blake Desjarlais, Canada Election 2025, Conservative Party of Canada, Daveberta Substack, Edmonton-Griesbach, Jagmeet Singh, Kerry Diotte, Liberal Party of Canada, Mark Carney, New Democratic Party of Canada, Patrick Lennox, Pierre Poilievre, Vote-splitting in Edmonton

Alberta Politics

Who’s going to win in Edmonton Griesbach?

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 21, 2025

Edmonton Griesbach NDP candidate Blake Desjarlais snaps a selfie with former Alberta premier Rachel Notley, and NDP MLAs Janis Irwin and Brooks Arcand-Paul (source: Blake Desjarlais / Instagram)

NDP MP Blake Desjarlais faces former Conservative MP Kerry Diotte and Mark Carney’s red wave

As Canada’s federal election enters its final week, I am taking a closer look at the race in the Edmonton Griesbach riding. It’s one of a surprisingly large handful of Alberta ridings that are considered competitive in this election and it also happens to be the riding I live and vote in.

The east central/north side Edmonton riding was where the NDP picked up their second seat in Alberta in the 2021 federal election when New Democrat Blake Desjarlais defeated two-term Conservative MP Kerry Diotte. This year’s election is a rematch between the two candidates but, despite traditionally being a blue-orange race, the Liberal Party’s surge could put that party’s candidate in the mix.

Peter Guthrie gets kicked out of the UCP Caucus

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 17, 2025

Peter Guthrie and Premier Danielle Smith at the cabinet swearing-in ceremony in 2023 (source: AlbertaNewsroom / Flickr)

Confusing hodgepodge of government investigations shows need for independent public inquiry into Dodgy Contracts Scandal

There is a lot happening in Alberta politics this week, including the news that Airdrie-Cochrane United Conservative Party MLA Peter Guthrie has been officially removed from the UCP caucus. The former cabinet minister resigned as Minister of Infrastructure in February 2025 as a protest against allegations of corruption, cover-ups and political interference in government contracts related to health care supplies and private surgical companies.

“I’m not going to stand by and see potential corruption exist within government and be a part of that,” Guthrie told the Globe & Mail when he resigned from cabinet in February. “I felt profound disappointment in their ability to be able to ignore these clear conflicts,” he said.

Preston Manning enters the chat

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 7, 2025

Manning Centre founder and former Reform Party Leader Preston Manning (Photo credit: David J. Climenhaga).

Conservative movement grandfather emerges from political retirement with grumpy separatist threats

Preston Manning emerged from political retirement to insert himself into the federal election mix by writing an op-ed in the Globe & Mail claiming that Liberal Party leader Mark Carney poses a threat to national unity. Manning’s argument triangulates with Premier Danielle Smith’s threats that a re-elected Liberal government would lead to an “unprecedented national unity crisis” – claims that are likely not very helpful for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.

Manning is undoubtably frustrated by the Liberal Party’s resurgence in public support but threatening that the country will be torn apart if the Conservatives don’t win the election is a shameful bookend to his long and fascinating career in Albertan and Canadian politics.

But who’s Preston?

Manning is probably a familiar name to a lot of Daveberta readers but, now that he’s been out of elected office for more than two decades, there’s a good chance that even a few keen politician watchers in 2025 aren’t too familiar with him.

Liberals tap Corey Hogan to run against Jeremy Nixon in Calgary Confederation

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date April 4, 2025

Liberals drop former NDP MLA Rod Loyola in Edmonton Gateway

Canada’s federal election is in full-swing and today’s Daveberta newsletter includes a quick update about candidate nominations in Alberta. I will be back early next week with a regular column and more analysis from Alberta in the federal election.

As of this morning, the Conservative Party, the New Democratic Party, and the Green Party are the only parties with candidates in all 37 ridings in Alberta. The Liberal Party briefly had a full slate but are down one after their candidate in Edmonton Gateway was removed yesterday (more about that below).

The deadline for parties to nominate candidates or for Independent candidates to put their names forward is Monday, April 7 at 2:00 p.m.

Alberta Politics

NDP MLA Rod Loyola challenging Conservative MP Tim Uppal in Edmonton Gateway

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date March 27, 2025

Rod Loyola was the NDP MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie until stepping down this week (photo source: Rod Loyola / Facebook)

Rod Loyola has resigned as the Alberta NDP MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie and is running as the Liberal Party candidate in the new Edmonton Gateway riding in the federal election. Loyola represented his south Edmonton provincial riding from 2015 until he stepped down earlier this week to pursue the federal Liberal nomination.

Read all about it on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Alberta Federal Candidate Nomination Update, Alberta NDP, Alberta Politics Substack, Alberta Prosperity Project, Ashley Fearnall, Ben Shapiro, Bharat Agnihotri, Blair-Marie Coles, Calgary-Centre, Calgary-Midnapore, Camrose, Canada Election 2025, Commonwealth of Alberta Delegation to Washington, Conservative Party of Canada, Danielle Smith, Daveberta Substack, Debbie Carlson, Dennis Modry, Donald Trump, Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Gateway, Edmonton Manning, Edmonton Northwest, Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Ellerslie by-election, Edmonton-Strathcona, Edmonton-Strathcona by-election, Eleanor Olszewski, Jackie Lovely, Jason Markusoff, Jeffrey Rath, Kathleen Petty, LaVar Payne, Liberal Party of Canada, Lindsay Luhnau, Lindsey Machona, Logan Hooley, Lori Williams, Mark Carney, Miles Berry, Mitch Sylvestre, Naheed Nenshi, Naresh Bhardwaj, Parkland, Pierre Poilievre, Ponoka-Didsbury, PragerU, Rachel Notley, Rahim Jaffer, Randy Boissonnault, Ranjit Bath, Rob Anders, Rod Loyola, Ron Thiering, Sunjiv Raval, Tim Uppal, United Conservative Party

Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith’s MAGA charm offensive could haunt the Conservatives

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date March 24, 2025

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at the United Conservative Party’s Leader’s Dinner in Edmonton in March 2025 (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)

When Alberta Premier Danielle Smith demanded Carney call a federal election after he was sworn-in as Prime Minister ten days ago, she probably didn’t expect that a two week old interview with an American alt-right news website would be making headlines on the first day of the campaign.

In a March 8 interview with the pro-Trump Breitbart website, Smith said she asked the Trump administration to pause their economic attacks on Canada until after the federal election because they might hurt Pierre Poilievre’s chances of defeating the Liberals.

Read it all on the Daveberta Substack

Alberta Politics

Nate Horner’s deficit spending, tax cutting confused conservative budget

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date February 28, 2025

Minister of Finance Nate Horner in the government’s pre-budget release video posted on social media (source: Nate Horner / Instagram)

Alberta goes for another ride on the royalty roller coaster

After twenty years of writing about Alberta politics and about same number of provincial budgets, it’s sometimes hard not to write the same thing year after year: Alberta relies too heavily on revenues from oil and gas royalties to fund the daily operations of government.

That’s the baked-in analysis of Alberta politics. Our provincial government’s over-dependence on oil revenues is both a blessing and a curse. When the price of oil is high, things are really good. When the price of oil is low, it’s really bad. It is the central component of what we used to call the “Alberta Advantage.”

Alberta has been able to afford to have the lowest taxes in Canada and high spending on public services because the government could use oil and gas royalties to offset what every other province would normally collect through taxes.

Peter Guthrie resigns from UCP cabinet over Dodgy Contracts Scandal

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date February 25, 2025

Echoes of Donna Kennedy-Glans and Len Webber resignations from 11 years ago

I usually try to avoid writing too much about breaking news and I typically don’t publish more than one article per day, but I made an exception after today’s news that Minister of Infrastructure Peter Guthrie had resigned from United Conservative Party Premier Danielle Smith’s cabinet.

“I’m not going to stand by and see potential corruption exist within government and be a part of that,” Guthrie was quoted as saying to the Globe & Mail in reference to the ongoing scandal and alleged cover-up related to government contracts with private surgical companies. “I felt profound disappointment in their ability to be able to ignore these clear conflicts,” he said.

10 things I’m watching in the Alberta Legislature this spring

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date February 25, 2025

The Rotunda of the Alberta Legislature Building ahead of the provincial budget announcement in February 2024 (photo credit: Dave Cournoyer)

Political scandals, resignations, budget cuts, strikes and coal mining – Alberta politics is never boring

The familiar voice of Speaker Nathan Cooper calling out “order!” and “the honourable member for…” will once again echo through the hallowed halls of Alberta’s Legislative Assembly when MLAs return to Edmonton for the start of the spring session today.

Government House Leader Joseph Schow released the United Conservative Party government’s legislative agenda for the session, which I will write about over the next few weeks, but here is a broader overview of what I’m watching as MLAs return to the Legislature:

1. Private surgical contracts scandal

Some people are calling it the Dodgy Contracts Scandal and the opposition NDP have gone all in on naming it CorruptCare, but whatever you are calling this political scandal there is no doubt it will be front and centre in this legislative session.

This morning’s news that Minister of Infrastructure Peter Guthrie is resigning from cabinet in protest of the scandal and how Premier Danielle Smith has handled it is sure to add fuel to the political fire.

“I’m not going to stand by and see potential corruption exist within government and be a part of that,” Guthrie is reported to have said. He plans to sit in the Legislature as a UCP MLA, but whether Smith wants him to remain in the government caucus is unclear (and unlikely).

Cracks in UCP cabinet unity started to show when Guthrie’s proposal to remove Minister of Health Adriana LaGrange from her current cabinet post was leaked to the media, though it is unclear who leaked it.

Smith and LaGrange tried to change the channel on the scandal at a press conference last week by pinning the blame on Alberta Health Services procurement staff, but an almost never-ending series of scoops from Globe & Mail investigative reporters Carrie Tait and Alanna Smith have undermined the UCP government’s efforts to spin their way out of the political storm.

Expect the NDP opposition, with the protections of parliamentary privilege, to spend a lot of time questioning and prodding UCP cabinet ministers about this scandal during Question Period.

Read the rest on the Daveberta Substack

Tags Adriana LaGrange, Alanna Smith, Alberta Federal Candidate Nomination Update, Alberta Health Services, Alberta NDP, Amber Murray, Athana Mentzelopoulos, Blake Desjarlais, Bow River, Calgary McKnight, Calgary-Skyview, Carrie Tait, CorruptCare Scandal, Dale McFee, Danielle Smith, Dave Quest, Daveberta Substack, David Bexte, Dodgy Contracts Scandal, Edmonton-Griesbach, Foothills, Graham Abela, Grande Prairie, Jennifer Villebrun, JL DeCosta, John Bruinsma, Joseph Schow, Josh Senneker, Karen Principe, Kattie Aurora, Lethbridge, Mark Carney, Mickey Amery, Naheed Nenshi, Nathan Cooper, Nathan Svoboda, Peter Guthrie, Ritesh Narayan, Rufus Awharitoma, Spring Session of the Alberta Legislature, Tanveer Taj, United Conservative Party

Alberta Politics

Drugs, gaffes and good intentions: The Big Family Day Debate of 1989

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date February 16, 2025

Premier Don Getty, NDP leader Ray Martin, and Liberal leader Laurence Decore

That time of year is once again upon us: the annual Family Day long weekend in Alberta. Thirty-five years after Albertans first marked the third Monday in February as a provincial holiday in 1990, most of us who get the day off work take it for granted, but there is a big political story behind how this day was created.

Some readers will be familiar with the story about then-Premier Don Getty’s son getting arrested for possession and trafficking of cocaine and his father creating a holiday to celebrate family values in response. It sounds like a cynical take but it’s a big part of the story.

The idea to create a mid-winter holiday had been around for some time before it was announced in Alberta’s 1989 pre-election Speech from the Throne.