Tag: Mark Carney

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What does Mark Carney’s win and Pierre Poilievre’s loss mean for Alberta?

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Danielle Smith’s sovereignty agenda gives the Liberals a generational opportunity to reset with Albertans

New and recent episodes of the Daveberta Podcast are available exclusively to paid subscribers of the Daveberta Substack.

The votes are counted and the surprising results of Monday’s federal election will have big ramifications for Canada. Friend of the pod and Partner & Chief Strategist at Y Station Communications and Research, Chris Henderson, joins us on the Daveberta Podcast to break down the election results and what they mean for the country, Alberta, and Premier Danielle Smith’s continued pursuit of a sovereignty agenda.

We also delve into Pierre Poilievre’s future as leader of the Conservative Party what opportunities Mark Carney’s Liberals have to reset their relationship with Albertans.

The Daveberta Podcast is hosted by Dave Cournoyer and produced by Adam Rozenhart. This episode was recorded on April 29, 2025 in the offices of Adverb Communications in beautiful downtown Edmonton.

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Alberta Politics

Liberals win the election but Alberta stays Conservative blue

Pierre Poilievre delivers his election night concession speech to supporters (screenshot: Conservative Party of Canada / Facebook)
Pierre Poilievre delivers his election night concession speech to supporters (screenshot: Conservative Party of Canada / Facebook)

Conservatives win 34 of 37 seats, Liberals win 2, NDP 1

One of Daveberta’s first rules of Alberta politics is to never underestimate the Conservatives, and that rule appears to have held true last night as votes in the federal election were counted across the province.

At the time I am publishing this, Conservative Party candidates are elected in 34 of 37 ridings in Alberta. This makes them a significant block in what will be a 144 MP Conservative Opposition in Ottawa. This is a larger Conservative caucus than existed before this election but falls far short of the huge majority government the Conservatives were expecting Pierre Poilievre would lead them to only a few months ago. The Liberal Party led by Prime Minister Mark Carney were re-elected with 168 seats, including two in Alberta.

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Alberta Politics

🇨🇦 Alberta ridings I’m watching on federal election night in Canada

It’s Election Day so don’t forget to vote!

It’s Election Day in Canada and the polls are open from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. in Alberta. If you aren’t one of the 815,131 Albertans who voted in the Advance Polls, then be sure to find your voting station and cast a ballot today.

While voters in most of Alberta’s 37 federal electoral districts are expected to elect their local Conservative Party candidate tonight, there are a few ridings that are expected to be competitive. Here are a few Alberta ridings I will be watching closely tonight…

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Alberta Politics

The final pitch: Who will be the big election winners in Calgary and Edmonton?

Liberal Party leader Mark Carney
Liberal Party leader Mark Carney

Jagmeet Singh, Pierre Poilievre, and maybe Mark Carney make final stops in Alberta

Canada’s federal election is four days away and most polls are pointing to a big national victory for Mark Carney’s Liberal Party. While the national polls show the gap between Carney’s party and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives slightly tightening, the Liberal lead in Ontario and Atlantic Canada looks insurmountable unless something drastic happens before April 28.

While most of Alberta’s federal ridings will be solidly Conservative blue on election night, the province’s two biggest cities could produce some interesting results. I haven’t seen any actual riding-level polls, which are both expensive and difficult to conduct, but most national polls show the Liberals with around 30 percent support in Alberta. This would represent the largest percentage of votes for the federal Liberals in Alberta since 1968.

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Alberta Politics

Vote-splitting in Edmonton Griesbach

A campaign mailer from NDP candidate Blake Desjarlais in Edmonton Griesbach (source: Dave Cournoyer)
A campaign mailer from NDP candidate Blake Desjarlais in Edmonton Griesbach (source: Dave Cournoyer)

The Liberal surge in the national polls, which shows the Liberals jumping up to around 30 percent support in Alberta in some polls (the party’s highest levels of support in this province in almost sixty years), has led to a lot of discussion in this campaign about vote-splitting.

“Stop the Split!” was the key message of a recent pamphlet that Blake Desjarlais’ campaign mailed to voters in the riding. The NDP campaign’s message is “Only Blake Desjarlais can defeat Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in Edmonton Griesbach.” The pamphlet doesn’t mention Kerry Diotte, which is interesting, and points out that in the last election the NDP earned 40 percent of the vote, the Conservatives won 37 percent and the Liberals finished third with 13 percent in the riding.

Discussions about vote-splitting in Edmonton, which usually revolve around defeating Conservative candidates, almost always devolve into cringeworthy arguments between Liberal and NDP partisans – which is why I try to avoid them.

Daveberta readers are smart people and it’s not my place to tell you how to vote. The furthest I’ll wade into the vote-splitting debate in my riding today is to say that it’s true that the Liberals are doing very well in the national polls and it’s also true that Desjarlais’ campaign is the better organized of the two main non-Conservative candidates in Edmonton Griesbach.

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Alberta Politics

Who’s going to win in Edmonton Griesbach?

Edmonton Griesbach NDP candidate Blake Desjarlais snaps a selfie with former Alberta premier Rachel Notley, and NDP MLAs Janis Irwin and Brooks Arcand-Paul (source: Blake Desjarlais / Instagram)
Edmonton Griesbach NDP candidate Blake Desjarlais snaps a selfie with former Alberta premier Rachel Notley, and NDP MLAs Janis Irwin and Brooks Arcand-Paul (source: Blake Desjarlais / Instagram)

NDP MP Blake Desjarlais faces former Conservative MP Kerry Diotte and Mark Carney’s red wave

As Canada’s federal election enters its final week, I am taking a closer look at the race in the Edmonton Griesbach riding. It’s one of a surprisingly large handful of Alberta ridings that are considered competitive in this election and it also happens to be the riding I live and vote in.

The east central/north side Edmonton riding was where the NDP picked up their second seat in Alberta in the 2021 federal election when New Democrat Blake Desjarlais defeated two-term Conservative MP Kerry Diotte. This year’s election is a rematch between the two candidates but, despite traditionally being a blue-orange race, the Liberal Party’s surge could put that party’s candidate in the mix.

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Alberta Politics

Alberta boys Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney return to the province of their youths

Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre and former Prime Minister Stephen Harper at an election rally in Edmonton on April 7, 2025 (source: Pierre Poilievre / Facebook)
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre and former Prime Minister Stephen Harper at an election rally in Edmonton on April 7, 2025 (source: Pierre Poilievre / Facebook)

It was Alberta Week in Canada’s federal election campaign

It was Alberta Week in the federal election campaign with the two party leaders who grew up in the western province returning to wave their party flags and rally supporters.

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Alberta Politics

Preston Manning enters the chat

Manning Centre founder and former Reform Party Leader Preston Manning (Photo credit: David J. Climenhaga).
Manning Centre founder and former Reform Party Leader Preston Manning (Photo credit: David J. Climenhaga).

Conservative movement grandfather emerges from political retirement with grumpy separatist threats

Preston Manning emerged from political retirement to insert himself into the federal election mix by writing an op-ed in the Globe & Mail claiming that Liberal Party leader Mark Carney poses a threat to national unity. Manning’s argument triangulates with Premier Danielle Smith’s threats that a re-elected Liberal government would lead to an “unprecedented national unity crisis” – claims that are likely not very helpful for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.

Manning is undoubtably frustrated by the Liberal Party’s resurgence in public support but threatening that the country will be torn apart if the Conservatives don’t win the election is a shameful bookend to his long and fascinating career in Albertan and Canadian politics.

But who’s Preston?

Manning is probably a familiar name to a lot of Daveberta readers but, now that he’s been out of elected office for more than two decades, there’s a good chance that even a few keen politician watchers in 2025 aren’t too familiar with him.

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Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith threatens a national unity crisis if Canadians re-elect Mark Carney’s Liberals

Liberal Party leader Mark Carney on the campaign trail (source: Mark Carney / Facebook)
Liberal Party leader Mark Carney on the campaign trail (source: Mark Carney / Facebook)

UCP MLA writes that Canada is broken and Team Canada is a “fake team”

Mark Carney has only been Prime Minister of Canada for 17 days but last week he may have made one of the most consequential statements by a Canadian political leader in recent memory.

“The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over,” Carney said in response to American President Donald Trump’s almost daily threats against Canada.

Trump backed down on his threats last week to level 25 percent tariffs against the Canadian automobile manufacturing industry, probably temporarily, after Carney announced retaliatory tariffs, but this week could feature Trump’s next big intervention in a federal election campaign where he has become the biggest villain. April 2 is what the Trump is calling “Liberation Day.” It’s the day he says he plans to level more huge tariffs on products being imported into the US.

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Alberta Politics

NDP MLA Rod Loyola challenging Conservative MP Tim Uppal in Edmonton Gateway

Rod Loyola was the NDP MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie until stepping down this week (photo source: Rod Loyola / Facebook)
Rod Loyola was the NDP MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie until stepping down this week (photo source: Rod Loyola / Facebook)

Rod Loyola has resigned as the Alberta NDP MLA for Edmonton-Ellerslie and is running as the Liberal Party candidate in the new Edmonton Gateway riding in the federal election. Loyola represented his south Edmonton provincial riding from 2015 until he stepped down earlier this week to pursue the federal Liberal nomination.

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Alberta Politics

Danielle Smith’s MAGA charm offensive could haunt the Conservatives

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at the United Conservative Party’s Leader’s Dinner in Edmonton in March 2025 (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks at the United Conservative Party’s Leader’s Dinner in Edmonton in March 2025 (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)

When Alberta Premier Danielle Smith demanded Carney call a federal election after he was sworn-in as Prime Minister ten days ago, she probably didn’t expect that a two week old interview with an American alt-right news website would be making headlines on the first day of the campaign.

In a March 8 interview with the pro-Trump Breitbart website, Smith said she asked the Trump administration to pause their economic attacks on Canada until after the federal election because they might hurt Pierre Poilievre’s chances of defeating the Liberals.

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Alberta Politics

What to make of Mark Carney’s meeting with Danielle Smith

Premier Danielle Smith speaks to supporters at the United Conservative Party Leader’s Dinner fundraiser in Edmonton on March 19, 2025 (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)
Premier Danielle Smith speaks to supporters at the United Conservative Party Leader’s Dinner fundraiser in Edmonton on March 19, 2025 (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)

Liberal PM expected to call federal election on Sunday for an April 28 or May 5 vote

Prime Minster Mark Carney was in Edmonton yesterday for his first visit since winning the Liberal Party leadership and becoming leader of the government. Carney met with Premier Danielle Smith, who re-endorsed Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre the night before at a sold out Leader’s Dinner fundraiser in the capital city.

The Prime Minister and Premier did not make themselves available to speak with the media after the meeting and there were no photos taken of the two politicians together, which is probably an indication of how well we can expect the meeting went (Smith’s office later posted a photo of her meeting with Ambassador of Austria Andreas Rendl, which also gives us an idea of where the Prime Minister fits in her pecking order).

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Alberta Politics

Two Alberta boys go to Ottawa

Prime Minister Mark Carney (source: Mark Carney / Facebook)
Prime Minister Mark Carney (source: Mark Carney / Facebook)

Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre grew up in Alberta. That’s a big deal for our province.

The political landscape in Canada has totally shifted under the weight of American President Donald Trump’s threats to impose harsh tariffs on Canadian goods and annex Canada as the 51st State.

Trump’s daily rambling threats against his country’s northern neighbours, mixed with the departure of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau from Canadian politics, has erased the huge lead in the polls that Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre had been riding for the past year.

The swearing-in of former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney as Canada’s new Prime Minister appears to have brought the Liberal Party back into the electoral game, for now, but such huge swings in public opinion in such a short time mean it could be impossible to predict what will happen next.

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10 things I’m watching in the Alberta Legislature this spring

The Rotunda of the Alberta Legislature Building ahead of the provincial budget announcement in February 2024 (photo credit: Dave Cournoyer)
The Rotunda of the Alberta Legislature Building ahead of the provincial budget announcement in February 2024 (photo credit: Dave Cournoyer)

Political scandals, resignations, budget cuts, strikes and coal mining – Alberta politics is never boring

The familiar voice of Speaker Nathan Cooper calling out “order!” and “the honourable member for…” will once again echo through the hallowed halls of Alberta’s Legislative Assembly when MLAs return to Edmonton for the start of the spring session today.

Government House Leader Joseph Schow released the United Conservative Party government’s legislative agenda for the session, which I will write about over the next few weeks, but here is a broader overview of what I’m watching as MLAs return to the Legislature:

1. Private surgical contracts scandal

Some people are calling it the Dodgy Contracts Scandal and the opposition NDP have gone all in on naming it CorruptCare, but whatever you are calling this political scandal there is no doubt it will be front and centre in this legislative session.

This morning’s news that Minister of Infrastructure Peter Guthrie is resigning from cabinet in protest of the scandal and how Premier Danielle Smith has handled it is sure to add fuel to the political fire.

“I’m not going to stand by and see potential corruption exist within government and be a part of that,” Guthrie is reported to have said. He plans to sit in the Legislature as a UCP MLA, but whether Smith wants him to remain in the government caucus is unclear (and unlikely).

Cracks in UCP cabinet unity started to show when Guthrie’s proposal to remove Minister of Health Adriana LaGrange from her current cabinet post was leaked to the media, though it is unclear who leaked it.

Smith and LaGrange tried to change the channel on the scandal at a press conference last week by pinning the blame on Alberta Health Services procurement staff, but an almost never-ending series of scoops from Globe & Mail investigative reporters Carrie Tait and Alanna Smith have undermined the UCP government’s efforts to spin their way out of the political storm.

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There continues to be chatter in political circles about how unhappy some cabinet ministers are about the allegations levelled by former AHS CEO Athana Mentzelopoulos and how Smith has responded, meaning there is a chance more UCP internal drama will spill out into public in the coming weeks.

Expect the NDP opposition, with the protections of parliamentary privilege, to spend a lot of time questioning and prodding UCP cabinet ministers about this scandal during Question Period.

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Many subscribers know that I am tracking candidates running for party nominations in Alberta ahead of the upcoming federal election. The list of candidates is available for everyone to read but paid subscribers get extra information about the nomination contests and candidates.

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Being in Donald Trump’s orbit a double-edged sword for Danielle Smith

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, US President-elect Donald Trump, and celebrity investor Kevin O’Leary (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, US President-elect Donald Trump, and celebrity investor Kevin O’Leary (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)

Smith wants tariff exemptions for oil and gas but Trump might want those jobs for American workers

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith continued her diplomatic charm offensive in the United States with a surprise visit to Mar-a-Lago, the Florida resort owned by incoming American President Donald Trump. Trump’s Sunshine State refuge has operated as his White House-in-Waiting until next week’s Presidential Inauguration festivities.

Smith has been a regular guest over the past few weeks on a long list of Fox News shows where she has argued that Trump should to exempt Canadian oil and gas from his threat of tariffs. She also plans to join a crowd of Trump supporters to watch him be sworn-in to office next week in Washington D.C.

Albertans found out about Smith’s trip after her staff posted photos on social media of her and Trump alongside celebrity investor and former Conservative Party leadership candidate Kevin O’Leary. She also posted photos of herself, O’Leary, and conservative gadfly Jordan Peterson at Mar-a-Lago.

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