Tag: Alison Redford

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Alberta Politics

alison redford’s first cabinet – who’s in? who’s out?

Premier Alison Redford will announce the appointment of her first cabinet at 10:00am this morning. I presented my list of predictions last week and since then we have some stronger indication of who will be appointed today and who will be joining the backbenchers this morning. We have been told to expect a significant shuffle and a smaller number of cabinet ministers.

Most of the speculation over the past few days about who will be left out of the next cabinet has been fairly obvious:

Iris Evans (Sherwood Park) – Long-time cabinet minister under Premiers Ralph Klein and Ed Stelmach. Her staff was seen cleaning our her office this week, according to CBC reporter Kim Trynacity.

Ron Liepert (Calgary-West) – Apt at picking the wrong horse in his party’s leadership contests, Mr. Liepert was the strong-arm for Jim Dinning in 2006 and Gary Mar in 2011.

Lloyd Snelgrove (Vermilion-Lloydminster) – The last Finance Minister of Premier Stelmach’s administration supported Mr. Mar in the leadership contest and told the Meridian-Booster that he would decline an appointment in Premier Redford’s cabinet.

UPDATE: Here is the list of new cabinet ministers:

Alison Redford, QC, Calgary-Elbow Premier, President of Executive Council, Chair of Agenda and Priorities

Doug Horner, Spruce Grove-Sturgeon-St. Albert Deputy Premier, President of Treasury Board and Enterprise

David Hancock, Edmonton-Whitemud Minister of Human Services, Government House Leader

Ted Morton, Foothills-Rocky View Minister of Energy

Verlyn Olson, Wetaskiwin-Camrose Minister of Justice and Attorney General, Deputy Government House Leader

Fred Horne, Edmonton-Rutherford Minister of Health and Wellness

Ron Liepert, Calgary-West Minister of Finance

Thomas Lukaszuk, Edmonton-Castle Downs Minister of Education

Diana McQueen, Drayton Valley-Calmar Minister of Environment and Water

Jonathan Denis, Calgary-Egmont Solicitor General and Minister of Public Security; Deputy Government House Leader

Cal Dallas, Red Deer-South Minister of International, Intergovernmental and Aboriginal Relations

Evan Berger, Livingstone-Macleod Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development

Frank Oberle, Peace River Minister of Sustainable Resource Development

George VanderBurg, Whitecourt-Ste. Anne Minister of Seniors

Ray Danyluk, Lac La Biche-St. Paul Minister of Transportation

Jeff Johnson, Athabasca-Redwater Minister of Infrastructure

Doug Griffiths, Battle River-Wainwright Minister of Municipal Affairs

Greg Weadick, Lethbridge-West Minister of Advanced Education and Technology

Jack Hayden,  Drumheller-Stettler Minister of Tourism, Parks and Recreation

Heather Klimchuk, Edmonton-Glenora Minister of Culture and Community Services

Manmeet Bhullar, Calgary-Montrose Minister of Service Alberta

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Alberta Politics

photos: alison redford sworn-in as alberta’s 14th premier.

Premier Alison Redford at her swearing-in ceremony on October 7, 2011.
Premier Alison Redford hugs Lieutenant Governor Donald Ethell at her swearing-in ceremony on October 7, 2011.
Premier Alison Redford at her swearing-in ceremony on October 7, 2011.
Premier Alison Redford and Lieutenant Governor Donald Ethell.
Premier Alison Redford at her swearing-in ceremony on October 7, 2011.
Premier Alison Redford recites the oath of office.
Premier Alison Redford at her swearing-in ceremony on October 7, 2011.
Premier Alison Redford signs her official documentation of her oath of office.
Premier Alison Redford following her swearing-in ceremony on October 7, 2011.
Premier Alison Redford mingles among the crowd of people packed into the Legislature building to witness her swearing-in ceremony.


See more photos of Premier Alison Redford’s swearing-in ceremony on Flickr.

 

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Alberta Politics

why early opposition attacks on alison redford will backfire.

Danielle Smith Alberta Wildrose No Plan
Left: No Plan ads from 2008 election. Right: Wildrose attack ads in 2011.

Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party has launched a series of negative television ads against soon-to-be Premier Alison Redford, who will be sworn-in as Premier tomorrow in Edmonton. The television ads bear an eerie resemblance to the negative ads used by Nancy MacBeth‘s Alberta Liberals in the 2001 election and the “No Plan” ads aired by the ‘Albertans for Change‘ coalition in the 2008 election.

The Wildrosers early attack ads are a page out of the federal Conservative Party election campaign textbook, which should not come as a surprise considering that Ms. Smith has surrounded herself with federal Tory activists, including Vitor Marciano, William McBeath, Ryan Hastman, and Steven Dollansky.

The most obvious differences between Ms. Redford and successful targets of federal Conservative smear campaigns are that:

1) she is not a Liberal, she is a Conservative
2) the PCs have a massive majority government in the Assembly and are still the best-organized and most well-funded political organization in the province, and
3) I believe that Albertans have generally been impressed with what they have seen of her so far.

Is it too early for the opposition parties to be lobbing grenades at the yet to be sworn-in Premier Redford? Ms. Redford was selected as leader at around 1:30am on October 2 and at 4:45pm, Wildrose attack dog Rob Anderson had already sent out a media release criticizing her. Always a gentleman, Mr. Anderson later tweeted that he would take a break from attacking Ms. Redford on Wednesday so that she could attend her mother’s funeral. How compassionate of Mr. Anderson.

Rob Anderson Twitter MLA Wildrose
Wildrose MLA Rob Anderson's October 5 tweet.

With the next general election expected within six months, the Wildrosers have decided to strike a negative tone, starting with attack ads and releasing a list of forty mistakes they say that the PCs have made during their forty years in government. The PCs have made many mistakes, but Albertans will reject the negative tone of the Wildrosers just as they have rejected the negative tone of the other opposition parties year after year. It is not enough to just remind Albertans that the Tories have become a monument to institutional mediocrity after forty years in government. Albertans know that because they voted for the PCs. Opposition parties need to take an extra step to give Albertans compelling and positive reasons to support them at the polls, something the Wildrosers have failed to do.

Not to be outdone by the Wildrose attacks against Ms. Redford, the NDP joined the fray. On Monday morning, NDP leader Brian Mason attacked Ms. Redford for delaying the fall sitting of the legislature, which was scheduled to begin on October 25, and the appointment of Alberta Health Services chairman Ken Hughes to her transition team. While both criticisms were valid, they were never meant to be “constructive” as Mr. Mason claimed on his blog the next day.

Unlike the opposition parties, who rely heavily on the daily Question Period to get their media hits during the legislative session, I believe that it was perfectly reasonable for Ms. Redford to want more than 15 days to prepare a legitimate legislative agenda. Regardless of what I may believe, Ms. Redford took the opposition advice, and to Mr. Mason’s surprise, announced that there will be a fall sitting.

Meanwhile, Ontario conservative blogger Stephen Taylor spun the Wildrose talking points this week claiming that Ms. Redford is the product of a labour union conspiracy, because of the support she received from front-line education and health care workers during the campaign. Maybe the view from Ottawa is blurred, but Mr. Taylor’s argument is silly when you take into account that most of these front-line workers probably regularly vote for the PC Party anyway.

Edmonton Journal columnist Graham Thomson pointed out early this week that Ms. Redford’s ‘honeymoon,’ a period that is traditionally given to new political leaders to allow them to settle into their new job, has been cut short by the opposition attacks. I predict these early aggressive tactics will only backfire on the opposition.

Every Albertan knows what is is like to start a new job and how bad it feels to get criticized before you even have a chance to started. No one likes the jerk who criticizes them before they have a chance to get familiar with the job. Hardline supporters of the opposition parties will rise to support their leaders attacks, but as the Wildrosers ads say, Albertans support integrity and democracy, but they also support fairness and don’t like jerks.

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cabinet building and the game of politics in alberta.

“When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die. There is no middle ground.”
Cersei Lannister, Game of Thrones

With the coming of a new Premier, the great game of cabinet building is underway and the politicians are jockeying for their positions. As reported by the Edmonton Journal, the competition to woo the new Queen of Alberta politics took the form of hugs and cheers at today’s Tory caucus meeting, the first since Premier-designate Alison Redford won the Progressive Conservative leadership on October 1.

Geography, gender, experience, competency, and political loyalty are a few of the many factors that are taken into account when building a cabinet. The need to put a new face on the cabinet will certainly leave some veteran MLAs mispleased with the appointments, which are expected to take place next week. Two position are already assured to Doug Horner as Deputy Premier and Dave Hancock as House leader.

Idle speculation over coffee (or mead and meat if we were in King’s Landing) with David Climenhaga, author of the Alberta Diary blog, led to the creation of three speculative lists of “who’s in” the cabinet, “too soon to tell” what their future is, and “who’s out” the next provincial cabinet.

The first two of the three groups are listed below and are our contribution to what is sure to be at the centre of debate among members of Premier Redford’s transition team. The third group, which I will not list on this blog, we hope will be chaired by the always affable and cheery hopefully-soon-to-be-former cabinet minister Ron Liepert.

Who’s in?

Doug Horner – Spruce Grove-Sturgeon-St. Albert (Already announced Deputy Premier, could be appointed Finance Minister)
Dave Hancock – Edmonton-Whitemud (Already appointed as House Leader)
Ted Morton – Foothills-Rockyview (lock the gun cabinet, keep your friends close, and your enemies even closer)
Ray Danyluk – Lac La Biche-St. Paul (Flexed his political muscle by drawing largest vote in his constituency in the PC leadership contest)
Robin Campbell – West Yellowhead
Dave Rodney – Calgary-Lougheed
Cal Dallas – Red Deer-South (from Red Deer and not Mary Ann Jablonski)
Kyle Fawcett – Calgary-North Hill (Supported Doug Griffiths on the first ballot and Redford on the second ballot)
Yvonne Fritz – Calgary-Cross (competent cabinet minister)
Jack Hayden – Drumheller-Stettler (to satisfy the rural vote)
Cindy Ady – Calgary-Shaw (to satisfy the Mormon vote)
Jeff Johnson – Athabasca-Redwater (New blood)
Art Johnston – Calgary-Hays (rewarded for being the only MLA to support Redford on the first ballot)
Diana McQueen – Drayton Valley-Calmar (Supported Horner and is a rising star in the PC caucus)
Frank Oberle – Peace River (Stays in Solicitor General)
Verlyn Olsen – Wetaskiwin-Camrose (Justice Minister)
Luke Ouellette – Innisfail-Sylvan Lake (hugged Redford at today’s caucus meeting)
Janice Sarich – Edmonton-Decore (Education Minister)

Too soon to tell

Thomas Lukaszuk – Edmonton-Castle Downs
Lloyd Snelgrove – Vermilion-Lloydminster
Doug Elniski – Edmonton-Calder (supported Redford, but has made questionable comments on women’s rights)
Greg Weadick – Lethbridge-West
Len Webber – Calgary-Foothills
Manmeet Bhullar – Calgary-Montrose
Genia Leskiw – Bonnyville-Cold Lake
Lindsay Blackett – Calgary-North West
Gene Zwozdesky – Edmonton-Mill Creek (the fixer)

Will all these MLAs make into the provincial cabinet next week? Perhaps not, but it is always fun to speculate what might come next in the increasingly interesting the game of politics in Alberta…

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Alberta Politics

premier alison redford’s challenge to change her party and alberta’s government.

Alberta Premier-Designate Alison Redford at an all-candidates forum in Vermilon on July 21, 2011.
Alberta Premier-Designate Alison Redford at an all-candidates forum in Vermilon on July 21, 2011.

Alberta politics became a little more exciting in the early hours of Sunday, October 2, 2011 when the sharp-minded former Justice Minister and human rights lawyer Alison Redford defied critics, but not readers of this blog, by defeating front-runner Gary Mar in the PC leadership contest. Ms. Redford will become Alberta’s first woman Premier when she is sworn-in to her new office in the coming days. She also rides into victory carrying a banner that promises change to her party members and Albertans.

One of her first challenges will be to build a new provincial cabinet.

Without many endorsements from her fellow MLAs, Ms. Redford may have more freedom to pick and choose the members of the next cabinet. Her win was a strike against the PC Party establishment that lined up behind Mr. Mar, so it will not be surprising to see a significant cabinet shuffle after she officially enters her office.

It is too early to know who will be in cabinet for sure, but there are a number of political indicators that we can use to speculate. Former Deputy Premier Doug Horner, who placed third in the leadership contest and whose supporters helped push Ms. Redford over the top on the run-off vote will likely grab a key cabinet spot. Remaining in cabinet because of their political strength on the ground (as proved by the total number of memberships sold in their constituencies) should be Lac La Biche-St. Paul MLA Ray Danyluk and Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Dave Hancock.

Uncertain futures lie ahead for former Finance Minister Ted Morton and Battle River-Wainwright MLA Doug Griffiths, who both endorsed Mr. Mar after they were eliminated from the first ballot vote on September 17, 2011. It should be noted that both their campaign managers endorsed Ms. Redford, as did voters in their constituencies in the October 1, 2011 vote.

To reinforce the message of change that Ms. Redford reminded PC Party members of in her victory speech, she will need to clean out some of the dead wood in the current provincial cabinet. This will mean smaller offices and salary cuts for some cabinet ministers, including loyalists of outgoing Premier Ed Stelmach.

Also significant to watch along with a new cabinet team will be the appointment and shuffling of Deputy Ministers. These top public servants are the professionals who can spell the key to success or failure for a new cabinet minister and can also signal the direction in which a government wishes to drive an agenda.

Ms. Redford ran a policy heavy campaign, of which two of the main issues were education and health care. She announced the restoration of funding to rehire the thousand teachers who were laid off only months ago. The campaign also highlighted her support for the public health care system in order to differentiate her from front-runner Mr. Mar, who came out strongly in support of privatized healthcare earlier in the campaign. Alberta may be fertile ground for conservative political movements, but the results of the PC leadership contest reinforces the position that those same conservative party members also support a strong public health care system.

Like her opponent, Mr. Mar, she has committed to represent the Government of Alberta at congressional hearings being held in Washington D.C. about the controversial Keystone XL pipeline on October 7, 2011. Increased international attention on the oilsands and our province’s environmental record has created a new challenge that the previous government struggled to handle. It will be interesting to watch what kind of approach Ms. Redford’s government will take to defending Alberta’s record in natural resource extraction.

Ms. Redford’s selection as Premier has already made Alberta politics more exciting and unpredictable. Opposition leaders Danielle Smith, Raj Sherman, Brian Mason, and Glenn Taylor will not be given a chance to challenge Ms. Reford during a Fall session of the Assembly, which will be delayed while the new Premier legitimately prepares a Legislative agenda for 2012. They will have to take to the airwaves, newspapers, and twittersphere with their criticisms.

With a provincial general election expected next year, Ms. Redford will have less than a year to prove that she can walk the talk when it comes to changing attitudes and politics within her forty-year governing Progressive Conservative Party. It is going to be interesting to watch!

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mapping alison redford’s victory on the second-ballot of the alberta pc leadership vote.

Maps: MLA endorsements of leadership candidates, poll-by-poll results in the second-ballot vote. (Click to enlarge)
Maps: MLA endorsements of leadership candidates, poll-by-poll results in the second-ballot vote. (Click to enlarge)

 

Maps from September 17, 2011 results: Percentage of PC voter support for Gary Mar, Alison Redford, and Doug Horner. (Click to enlarge)
Maps from September 17, 2011 results: Percentage of PC voter support for Gary Mar, Alison Redford, and Doug Horner. (Click to enlarge)

 

Maps from October 1, 2011 results: Percentage of PC voter support for Gary Mar, Alison Redford, and Doug Horner. (Click to enlarge)
Maps from October 1, 2011 results: Percentage of PC voter support for Gary Mar, Alison Redford, and Doug Horner. (Click to enlarge)

 

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alison redford is alberta’s new premier.

Alison Redford Alberta
Alberta's new Premier Alison Redford

Former Justice Minister Alison Redford won a surprise victory today to become leader of Alberta’s Progressive Conservative Party and Premier-designate of Alberta. Ms. Redford, first elected as the MLA for Calgary-Elbow in 2008 (a constituency previously represented by Premier Ralph Klein), defeated long-time frontrunner Gary Mar to become Alberta’s next Premier.

RESULTS
First Ballot Results (from September 17, 2011)

Tonight
Second Ballot
Gary Mar: 33,175
Alison Redford: 28,923
Doug Horner: 15,557

Third Ballot
Alison Redford: 37,104
Gary Mar: 35,491

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Alberta Politics

blog readers choose alison redford as pc leader.

A blog poll shows that Alison Redford is the choice of daveberta.ca readers.
A blog poll shows that Alison Redford is the choice of daveberta.ca readers.

In a online poll posted earlier this week, readers of this blog have chosen Alison Redford as their choice to win today’s Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership contest. Ms. Redford was the first choice with 44%, and first-ballot winner Gary Mar placed second with 39%. Former Deputy Premier Doug Horner placed third with 17%.

PC Party members are voting today for their new leader. Results of the preferential ballot vote will be available tonight. The new leader will become the next Premier of Alberta.

 

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no shock and awe, alberta pc leadership debate was a tame affair.

Alberta PC leadership Debate 2011
PC leadership candidates on the set of the Global TV debate: Doug Horner, Gary Mar, and Alison Redford.

Last night’s Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership debate, broadcast live province-wide on Global Television and QR77 and 630CHED, was a tame affair.

Overshadowing the evening was the recent passing of candidate Alison Redford‘s mother, who had been admitted into the hospital in High River the day before. Despite what must have been an incredibly difficult day, Ms. Redford demonstrated personal strength and delivered a strong performance during the debate. She was also the only candidate not to refer to notes during the course of the debate, only glancing at her notes during her opening and closing remarks.

None of the three candidates hit a home run during the debate, but each of the candidates demonstrated their own strengths and solid speaking skills. Each of the candidates highlighted their experience, both at and away from the cabinet table.

Unlike the 2006 leadership contest, where there were very obvious ideological and policy differences between the top three candidates, the three candidates standing at the podiums last night share similar political space within their party, with some notable exceptions.

Over the course of the hour-long debate, Ms. Redford and Doug Horner honed their criticisms on first-ballot front-runner Gary Mar. A seasoned politician of almost 20 years, Mr. Mar was quick to fend off criticisms of his support for privatized healthcare and his quiet acceptance of more than $400,000 in MLA transition allowance when he became Alberta’s chief lobbyist in Washington D.C. Both Ms. Redford and Mr. Horner took positions that health care can be improved from within the public system, rather than introducing more for-profit health care. They also raised the issue of trust in reference to Mr. Mar’s transition allowance flip-flop.

Mr. Mar played the front-runner game during the debate, saying a lot without actually saying much. Mr. Mar is intelligent and articulate, but his highly staged campaign has given him the air of an overly polished professional politician. He took every opportunity to remind the viewers that unlike his two opponents, he did not sit at Premier Ed Stelmach‘s cabinet table (though most of that cabinet table is now supporting Mr. Mar).

Ms. Redford and Mr. Horner used the debate to differentiate themselves from Mr. Mar on issues including health care, education, municipal affairs, and the oilsands. Mr. Mar earned 40% on the September 17 first-ballot vote, which presents a tough challenge for any candidate trying to close that lead. Is it impossible? No. Is it improbable? Maybe.

PC members will vote in a second-ballot preferential vote on October 1. If no candidate receives more than 50% on the second-ballot, the third place candidate will be dropped off and their second place votes will be redistributed among the top two candidates.

A big thanks to Rob Breakenridge for inviting me to talk about the PC leadership debate on his radio show on QR77 and 630CHED last night.

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alison redford takes a break, hugh macdonald calls it quits.

Progressive Conservative leadership candidate Alison Redford, who placed second in her party’s first ballot leadership vote on September 17, announced yesterday that her campaign would be temporarily suspending its efforts so that she could spend time with her mother who had recently been admitted to the hospital in High River. 630 CHED has reported that Ms. Redford’s mother passed away last night.

My thoughts and prayers are with Ms. Redford and her family in this difficult time.

Candidates Doug Horner and Gary Mar are continuing to campaign for the second ballot vote to be held on October 1. Ms. Redford’s campaign manager, Stephen Carter, told 630 CHED that Ms. Redford would be participating in a television leadership debate scheduled for this evening.

Hugh MacDonald calls it quits

You read it here first – four-term Liberal MLA Hugh MacDonald announced that he will not be seeking re-election when the next general election is called. Mr. MacDonald has represented the Edmonton-Gold Bar constituency since 1997, continuing the legacy of former Liberal MLA Bettie Hewes, who represented the constituency starting in 1986.

Mr. MacDonald is easily one of the hardest working MLAs sitting in the opposition benches, though his undying focus on uncovering scandal in the PC government can easily be confused with obsession. Placing second in the recent Liberal leadership contest, Mr. MacDonald made a very public spectacle about his concerns around the legitimacy of the voters list that helped elect former Tory MLA Raj Sherman.

The Liberals are losing a veteran MLA, but this could be a golden opportunity for them to bring new blood into their caucus in the closest thing that party has to a “safe riding” in Alberta.

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blue man group plans to unite the right in alberta.

 

The original blue man group united the right in Ottawa: Ted Morton, Stephen Harper, and Ken Boessenkool.
The original blue man group united the right in Ottawa: Ted Morton, Stephen Harper, and Ken Boessenkool.

Aiming to ‘unite the right’ in Alberta by mending fences in Alberta’s conservative political camps, a new “Alberta Blue Committee” has been formed by long-time conservative strategist Ken Boessenkool.

From the Edmonton Journal:

He has promised its members will reveal themselves next week and that Albertans will see them as “politically active, smart, young people,” mostly between the ages of 35 and 45, whom either the Tories or Wildrose Party would see as attractive candidates for cabinet posts depending on which party wins the next provincial election.

Despite claims by Journal columnist Lorne Gunter that the forty-year governing Progressive Conservatives sit in the “centre-left” or by Danielle Smith‘s Wildrose Party that leadership candidates Doug Horner, Gary Mar, and Alison Redford are too “progressive” for the average Alberta, anyone with basic understanding of these concepts will see that the labels do not fit. (See Robert Remington’s recent column in the Calgary Herald for more on this topic).

Mr. Boessenkool’s new initiative appears to be based on a perceived threat of a vote split between the two main conservative parties in the next provincial general election.

The province’s only traditional “left” political party, the New Democrats, are vocal, but their support has been electorally limited to a handful of urban pockets across the province (mostly in Edmonton). The Alberta Party, a new centrist alternative led by Hinton Mayor Glenn Taylor, are slowly organizing and still need to prove that they can elect an MLA.

Even the official opposition Alberta Liberals, now led by former Conservative MLA Raj Sherman, need to figure out what they stand for before they can be seen as challenging the two dominant conservative parties (and decide if they want to be the third).

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second-ballot math: alberta tory caucus splits between redford, mar, horner.

Map-of-MLA-support-in-the-2011-Alberta-PC-leadership-contest-September-21-2011
Map of MLA support in the 2011 Alberta PC leadership contest (September 21, 2011)

The three candidates eliminated on the first-ballot vote to choose the next leader of Alberta’s Progressive Conservatives have all announced their support for front-runner Gary Mar. Carrying 40% of the vote on the first-ballot, it is understandable why the three would endorse the front-runner in terms of both personal political calculation and party unity.

Scattering a little differently, the group of MLAs who supported the three eliminated candidates have begun to throw their support among the remaining candidates.

Leadership candidate Doug Horner held a media conference yesterday to announce that Ted Morton supporter Edmonton-Mill Woods MLA Carl Benito was joining his campaign.

Other supporters of Dr. Morton, Calgary-Lougheed MLA Dave Rodney, Edmonton-Calder MLA Doug Elniski, and Edmonton-McClung MLA David Xiao, are backing second place candidate Alison Redford.

The only MLA to follow Dr. Morton’s lead into Mr. Mar’s camp is St. Albert MLA Ken Allred. It has been speculated that Housing Minister and Calgary-Egmont MLA Jonathan Denis may endorse Mr. Mar this week. (UPDATE: Minister Denis has endorsed Mar).

Including Minister Denis, there remain five MLA supporters of Dr. Morton who have yet to throw their support behind any of the top three candidates (as far as I am aware). Those remaining MLAs are Livingstone-Macleod MLA Evan Berger, Highwood MLA George Groeneveld, Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview MLA Tony Vandermeer, and Edmonton-Manning MLA Peter Sandhu.

Doug Griffiths‘ only caucus supporter, Calgary-North Hill MLA Kyle Fawcett, is also backing Alison Redford.

Meanwhile, Dr. Morton’s campaign manager Sam Armstrong, remained critical of Mr. Mar’s candidacy. Mr. Armstrong told the Calgary Herald in an interview that:

“It’s the same old, Old Boys’ Club around Gary that’s been there forever”

Mr. Orman’s endorsement of Mr. Mar was also not enough to convince his campaign manager Patrick Walsh to come along. Mr. Walsh is now supporting Ms. Redford’s campaign.

Check out the Alberta PC Leadership page on this blog to track MLA support for candidates on the second ballot.

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doing second-ballot math: ted morton and rick orman endorse gary mar.

Ted Morton Gary Mar Alberta Conservatives
Ted Morton has endorsed Gary Mar

Ted Morton and Rick Orman have endorsed Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership front-runner Gary Mar.

It is unclear how many of Dr. Morton’s supporters may show up to support Mr. Mar on the second-ballot vote on October 1, but it may have saved his political career, which appeared to be close to an end when the former Finance Minister placed a distant fourth with 11% of the vote on September 17.

Mr. Orman placed fifth with 10% of the vote. One Tory insider emailed me this morning suggesting that Mr. Orman’s endorsement could lead to his appointment as Alberta’s envoy in Washington D.C., a job Mr. Mar held until earlier this year.

Two days ago it was difficult to see anyone defeating Mr. Mar on the second ballot. It feels even less likely now.

Conservative versus Progressive?

Since the first-ballot vote eliminated Dr. Morton and Mr. Orman, the hard-edged conservatives of the group, the Wildrose and their friends at the Toronto National Post have been spinning the narrative that the progressives (or “soft-centrists”) have defeated the conservatives in this contest. While the endorsement of the two more “conservative” candidates will aid Mr. Mar in dispelling this attack, I am not sure that I would put a “progressive” label or Mr. Mar, or either of the other two remaining candidates.

Like Dr. Morton, front-runner Mr. Mar has expressed solid support for privatized health care. Mr. Mar’s comments put him in the unfortunate position of appearing more supportive of the Americanization than even Wildrose leader Danielle Smith, who supports the introduction of private facilities, but sticks to finely-tuned talking points when talking about full-privatization. Of course, spin alley is in a near traffic jam trying to explain away Mr. Mar’s feelings towards having Albertans pay out of pocket for health care.

While the remaining three candidates may not espouse hard edged conservatism like Dr. Morton or Mr. Orman, the three candidates have received financial support from not-so-progressive groups, like the Merit Contractors Association, which is an anti-union lobby group in the construction industry.

All three candidates have received support from across the center and right of the political spectrum. Like Mr. Mar, Ms. Redford has received the support of Liberals and Red Tories alike, including former federal candidate Kevin Taron, former provincial candidate Beth Gignac, and former Prime Minister Joe Clark. Mr. Horner is certainly a moderate conservative and has received the support of longtime MLA and Assembly Speaker Ken Kowalski, who’s campaign once published an election ad stating that “While human beings can create laws, the laws of God must take precedence.”

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mapping alberta’s progressive conservative leadership first-ballot vote results.

Members of Alberta’s Progressive Conservative Party will be voting for their next leader in a second (or third) ballot on October 1. Gary Mar, Alison Redford, and Doug Horner will contest the vote in two weeks, and until then will be selling memberships across the province.

Last Saturday’s first-ballot vote gave Mr. Mar a wide-lead with 40% of the of vote. Ms. Redford at 18% and Mr. Horner at 14% have a big challenge to catch up with the front-runner. Not moving on to the next ballot are former Finance Minister Ted Morton, former cabinet minister Rick Orman, and backbench MLA Doug Griffiths.

While the right-wing Mr. Orman placed a respectful fifth place, Dr. Morton’s support from his previous run in the 2006 leadership campaign appears to have evaporated last weekend, leaving many political watchers to suspect that his base has migrated to the Wildrose on a more permenant basis. It appears that Mr. Griffiths’ outsider message was not enough to resonate with PC Party members across the province.

Here is a breakdown of the September 17 first-ballot results:

Maps: Number of total votes cast in the first-ballot, MLA endorsements of leadership candidates, poll-by-poll results in the first-ballot vote. (Click to enlarge)
Maps: Number of total votes cast in the first-ballot, MLA endorsements of leadership candidates, poll-by-poll results in the first-ballot vote. (Click to enlarge)
Gary Mar Alison Redford Doug Horner PC leadership Vote Alberta
Maps: Percentage of PC voter support for Gary Mar, Alison Redford, and Doug Horner. (Click to enlarge)

 

Ted Morton-Rick Orman-Doug Griffiths Alberta PC leadership vote
Maps: Percentage of PC voter support for Ted Morton, Rick Orman, and Doug Griffiths. (Click to enlarge)

 

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results: alberta progressive conservative leadership first ballot.

First ballot results of today’s Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership vote:

Gary Mar: 24195
Alison Redford: 11129
Doug Horner: 8635
Ted Morton: 6962
Rick Orman: 6005
Doug Griffiths: 2435

As no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, the top three candidates will contest a second ballot on October 1. More detailed poll by poll analysis coming soon.

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