Alberta politics is unpredictable and sometimes it’s best to expect the unexpected
Tag: Alberta Prosperity Project
Protected rights for the unvaccinated and tax cuts aimed at appeasing unruly UCP members ahead of November vote
Summer is normally a time when politics cools down and politicians hit the BBQ circuit, but there’s something smelly in the air and it’s not just the wildfire smoke that Albertans have become accustomed to being part of our increasingly hot summers.
A political scandal surrounding Premier Danielle Smith and senior United Conservative Party cabinet ministers accepting tickets to skybox seats during the Edmonton Oilers NHL playoff run has erupted. Globe & Mail journalist Carrie Tait first broke the story that Smith and some UCP cabinet ministers had accepted box seat tickets to NHL playoff hockey games from private corporations that have close connections to or are lobbying the Alberta government.
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From the price of oil to the influence of right-wing populist groups to the NDP leadership race and more
January is usually a quiet month in politics, making it a good time to look ahead at what to expect in the year to come. Here are ten things I will be watching that could have a big impact on Alberta politics in 2024:
1. Price of oil
Alberta is probably the only province where the international price of oil is at the top of the Premier’s daily briefing notes. The price of oil not only has a big impact on a lot of Albertans’ jobs, but also the provincial government’s revenue stream.
Relying heavily on the price of oil to pay for the day to day operations of public services, the Alberta government’s 2023/2024 budget projected as much as 25 percent of its revenue will come from oil and gas royalties.
“If we go into this coming fiscal year starting April 1 with $72 per barrel, that might put the government into a situation where they either have to revise their spending plans or face a modest deficit,” University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe told CBC.
In Alberta, governments live and die by the price of oil.
Any good talk radio host understands that the show doesn’t belong to the host, it belongs to the listeners. And if this past weekend’s annual general meeting is any indication, talk radio host-turned-Premier Danielle Smith might be taking a similar approach as leader of the United Conservative Party.
Aside from a nod to protecting parental rights during her keynote speech, Smith largely stood out of the way as more than 3,700 delegates packed into Calgary’s BMO Centre to vote on party policy and elect a new executive board. It was an impressive crowd and probably the largest provincial political convention in Alberta’s history.
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More confusing messaging about the Alberta Pension Plan
As Alberta’s United Conservative Party government continues its big $7 million advertising push to convince Albertans to leave the Canada Pension Plan and start a separate Alberta Pension Plan, Finance Minister Nate Horner told CTV’s Vassy Kapelos that the province’s decision on whether or not to hold a referendum on leaving the CPP will be based on a “high level feeling from many sources.”
After months of speculation, Finance Minister Travis Toews announced this morning he will not seek re-election as the United Conservative Party MLA for Grande Prairie-Wapiti. Toews was first elected in 2019 and placed second in the party’s 2022 leadership race.
It was widely believed that Toews would not run again, as a result of last year’s leadership race and the likely possibility that he would not be reappointed to the Finance Minister role if the UCP is re-elected in May.
The letter, posted below, conspicuously misses any mention of Premier Danielle Smith.
And CBC Radio-Canada now reports that Environment Minister Sonya Savage is not running for re-election in Calgary-North West. Savage has served as MLA for that riding since 2019 and was nominated as the UCP candidate for the next election last summer.
Dr. Vankka acclaimed as UCP candidate in Edmonton-Riverview
The UCP board of directors in Edmonton-Riverview acclaimed Dr. Terence Vankka as the party’s candidate in this riding.
Dr. Vankka moved to Edmonton in 2000 when he was posted by Canadian Armed Forces as the Western Regional Oral & Maxillofacial Surgeon. Following his military service, he worked in private practice at Kingsway Oral & Maxillofacial Surgery until retiring in 2018. He maintains a teaching position with the Faculty of Medicine & Dentistry at the University of Alberta.
Dr. Venkka previously ran for the UCP nomination in Edmonton-McClung in February 2023.
Former Alberta Prosperity Project CEO and surgeon Dr. Dennis Modry had previously announced his intentions to run.
The riding is currently represented by NDP MLA Lori Sigurdson, who is running for re-election for a third-term as MLA.
And, hot off the presses, Miles Berry has been nominated as the UCP candidate in Edmonton-Gold Bar.
More nomination updates
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville: The NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting for April 21, 2023 in this riding east of Edmonton.
Lesser Slave Lake: A recount in this northern rural riding found that Scott Sinclair defeated Martine Carifelle by 5 votes instead of the 3 votes counted at the nomination meeting on February 26.
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills: Daniel Brisbin has withdrawn his candidacy for the Green Party in this central Alberta riding.
Upcoming nomination votes
With 66 days left until Election Day, the UCP have nominated candidates in 81 of Alberta’s 87 ridings and Alberta NDP have nominated 77 candidates. The Green Party has 26 candidates, the Alberta Party has nominated 12 candidates and the Liberal Party has one.
Candidate nomination votes are currently scheduled for the following dates:
- April 1 – Calgary-North East UCP
- April 3 – Grande Prairie UCP
- April 21 – Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
And, if you haven’t already, subscribe to the Daveberta Substack and read the latest column, Smaller parties will have a hard time in Alberta’s 2023 election.
The big nomination news this week is MLA Roger Reid‘s announcement that he has dropped out of the United Conservative Party nomination contest in Livingstone-Macleod.
Reid was first elected in 2019 and was undeterred from running for the nomination again even when it looked like he would face new party leader Danielle Smith in the contest. But then Reid suddenly dropped out on the morning after the October 31 candidate entry deadline.
Statement from our MLA Roger Reid:
November 1, 2022
After much personal wrestling and conversations with family and friends I have decided to withdraw my name from the United Conservative Party nomination for Livingstone Macleod. While I hoped to serve a second term, I no longer feel it is possible for me to do so.
It has been a tremendous honour to represent the people of this riding as the MLA. I have discovered many amazing places so close to home and it has been my privilege to meet with constituents from High River to the Crowsnest over the last 4 years. I will continue to be focused on the needs of Livingstone Macleod through the end of my term.
The last couple of years have been particularly challenging for our province. Neither I, nor our government have been perfect, but I believe the work we have done has put Alberta back on track. We are stronger and in a better position to weather the current storms than we were four years ago.
There is still work to do. To move forward we must be a united movement to ensure a strong conservative government continues to lead the province. It is essential for our true prosperity.
As I end my term, I will ensure that the concerns and the needs of Livingstone Macleod are kept in front of our Premier and her cabinet until the next election is called.
Thank you for allowing me privilege of representing you.
In Service,
Roger W. Reid
MLA – Livingstone Macleod
Unless there is another surprise candidate in the race, it looks like Nadine Wellwood could be acclaimed as the UCP candidate in the rural southwest Alberta riding.
Wellwood was a candidate for the right-wing People’s Party of Canada in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections and the 2021 Senate nominee election. She is a prolific sharer of internet conspiracy theories about COVID-19 and globalist plots on her social media, and she also participated in the blockade at Coutts border crossing earlier this year.
The UCP has not announced if it has accepted Wellwood’s application to seek the UCP nomination in Livingstone-Macleod.
Well-known conservationist Kevin Van Tighem is expected to be chosen as the Alberta NDP candidate at a November 23 nomination meeting. Van Tighem is the former Superintendent of Banff National Park, author of Our Place: Changing the Nature of Alberta and Wild Roses Are Worth It: Reimagining the Alberta Advantage, and an outspoken opponent of open-pit coal mining on the Eastern Slopes of the Rocky Mountains.
NDP drop Calgary-Klein candidate
Marilyn North Peigan is no longer the NDP candidate in Calgary-Klein.
NDP provincial secretary Brandon Stevens issued a statement about her candidate status after North Peigan retweeted a video clip of City Councillor Dan McLean with an accompanying tweet alleging he was corrupt and that one of his family members was a corrupt board member for the Calgary Stampede.
Stevens also stated that while McLean’s actions in the original video circulating online are racist and unacceptable, the statements made by North Peigan towards his family and the Stampede are not appropriate and not reflective of the views of the Alberta NDP.
North Peigan defeated Heather Eddy and Mattie McMillan to win the NDP nomination in March 2022.
The Calgary-Klein riding is currently represented by UCP MLA Jeremy Nixon and is seen as a potential NDP pick up in the next election.
Other UCP nomination updates
- Past city council candidate Lana Palmer is seeking the UCP nomination Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview.
- Construction company owner Dave Guenter is running for UCP nomination in Calgary-Fish Creek. Incumbent UCP MLA Richard Gotfried is not running for re-election.
- Premier Smith says it’s up to Drew Barnes to decide whether he wants to rejoin the UCP Caucus and seek the party’s nomination to run for re-election. Barnes was first elected as MLA for Cypress-Medicine Hat in 2012 and was one of four Wildrose MLAs not to cross the floor with Smith in 2014. He was kicked out of the UCP Caucus in 2021 after becoming one of former Premier Jason Kenney‘s biggest internal critics.
- Two-term MLA Ron Orr is not running for re-election and Jennifer Johnson and paramedic Dusty Myshrall have stepped forward to run for the UCP nomination in Lacombe-Ponoka. Johnson’s social media feed shows her recently attending events organized by the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project and COVID-19 skeptical Canadians For Truth group.
Brooks-Medicine Hat by-election
Advance voting in the Brooks-Medicine Hat by-election is open until Saturday, November 5. On Election Day, November 8, voting stations will be open from 9:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
The five candidates contesting the by-election, UCP leader Danielle Smith, NDP leader Gwendoline Dirk, Alberta Party leader Barry Morishita, Wildrose Independence Party interim leader Jeevan Mangat, and Independence Party candidate Bob Blayone, participated in a forum organized by the Alberta Teachers’ Association Grasslands Local No. 34.
Total nominated candidates
The NDP have nominated candidates in 62 of Alberta’s 87 ridings. The UCP have candidates named in 36 ridings and the Green Party has 18 candidates. The Alberta Party has nominated 3 candidates.
Here are the scheduled upcoming nominations:
- November 8 – Calgary-Peigan NDP
- November 8 – Calgary-South East NDP
- November 16 – Calgary-West NDP
- November 20 – Airdrie-East NDP
- November 23 – Livingstone-Macleod NDP
I am maintaining a list of candidates running for party nominations, so if you are seeking a nomination and would like you name added to the list please let me know. Thanks!
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