Tag: Adam Germain

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Alberta Politics

Teacher Ariana Mancini running for Alberta NDP nomination in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche by-election

Rachel Notley with the local fire dog and Fort McMurray NDP candidates Ariana Mancini and Stephen Drover during the 2015 election.
Rachel Notley with the local fire dog and Fort McMurray NDP candidates Ariana Mancini and Stephen Drover during the 2015 election.

Fort McMurray teacher Ariana Mancini is running for the Alberta NDP nomination in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche ahead of the upcoming by-election in the riding.

Mancini teaches Grade 4 at Ecole Dickinsfield School in Fort McMurray and is on the executive of Fort McMurray Local 48 of the Alberta Teachers Association.

“Conservatives have failed to deliver on the promises they made in the last election. Their corporate tax cuts haven’t created the jobs they promised,” Mancini said in a press release. “Under Jason Kenney, life is getting more expensive: income taxes are up, insurance rates are up, electricity rates are up, tuition is up.

“It’s time we had representation in our region that believed in making life more affordable for families,” Mancini said.

Don Scott MLA Fort McMurray Conklin
Don Scott

A nomination meeting is scheduled for Dec. 9 and Mancini is expected to be acclaimed. NDP leader Rachel Notley will be in Fort McMurray for what the party describes will be a nomination rally.

This will be Mancini’s second time running for the provincial NDP.

In 2015 she placed second behind Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean (who is also running for the United Conservative Party nomination to run this by-election) and ahead of incumbent Progressive Conservative MLA Don Scott (who would later serve as Mayor of Wood Buffalo from 2017 to 2021) in the former Fort McMurray-Conklin riding.

NDP are the underdog in this race

Despite Notley’s NDP leading in the province-wide polls since last November and Premier Jason Kenney reaching record low approval ratings, it will be an uphill battle for any party other than the UCP to win this by-election. Voters in this region of north east Alberta have reliably elected Conservative candidates for over three decades.

Leo Piquette NDP MLA Athabasca-Lac La Biche
Leo Piquette

Popular municipal councillor Jane Stroud was only able to earn 24 per cent as the NDP candidate in the 2019 election, and you have to look all the way back to 1986 to find the last time a New Democrat was elected in the area (NDP MLA Leo Piquette represented Athabasca-Lac La Biche from 1986 to 1989).

The last time a candidate from a non-Conservative party was elected in this area was in 1993, when Adam Germain was elected in Fort McMurray and Paul Langevin was elected in Lac La Biche-St. Paul under the Liberal Party banner (though, the Liberals in that election were arguably more conservative than they have ever been since).

All that said, by-elections can sometimes produce unexpected results.

The nasty feud between Jean and Kenney, unhappiness with the UCP’s response to COVID-19, persistent high unemployment, displeasure with the forced provincial centralization of ambulance dispatch, and skepticism about the UCP’s move to abandon the RCMP and form a provincial police force might just be a few of the issues that help voters decide who to cast their ballot.

The by-election in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche must be called by Feb. 15, 2022.

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Alberta Politics

Sunday Night Candidate Nomination Update

Shelly Shannon Kathleen Ganley Christina Gray Beth Barberree Alberta Election Nomination candiates
Shelly Shannon Kathleen Ganley Christina Gray Beth Barberree Alberta Election Nomination candiates

Photo: Shelly Shannon, Kathleen Ganley, Christina Gray, and Beth Barberree

The New Democratic Party has scheduled its nomination meeting in Fort McMurray-Conklin for May 10, 2018. A by-election is needed in this district following the resignation of United Conservative Party MLA Brian Jean. Wood Buffalo municipal councillor Jane Stroud is expected to seek the NDP nomination.

Willie Hoflin is the fourth candidate to join the UCP nomination contest in Fort McMurray-Conklin. Hoflin’s website describes him as a 40-year Syncrude employee and past campaign manager for former Fort McMurray MLAs Guy Boutilier and Adam Germain. Hoflin left the PC Party in June 2010 to join the Wildrose Party.

Here are some other recent updates to the list of candidates running for nominations ahead of Alberta’s expected 2019 provincial election:

Calgary-Acadia – Amina Beecroft is seeking the UCP nomination. Beecroft is an accounting and finance instructor at Mount Royal University. She is the former president of the Calgary-Acadia Progressive Conservative Association and the current president of the UCP in that district.

Calgary-Bow – Harry Fleming is seeking the UCP nomination in Calgary-Bow. Fleming is an assistant with Harper & Associates, the company founded by former Prime Minister Stephen Harper after the Conservative Party of Canada’s defeat in the 2015 election. He also served as Calgary vice-president of the Progressive Conservative Youth of Alberta from 2016 to 2017 and president of the University of Ottawa Conservative Club from 2014 to 2015.

Calgary-Currie – Nicholas Milliken is seeking the UCP nomination. Milliken is a lawyer and CEO of  Brolly Legal Recruitment. He is the great grandson of Alberta MLA William Howson, who represented Edmonton in the Alberta Legislature from 1930 to 1936 and led the Alberta Liberal Party from 1932 to 1936.

Calgary-Edgemont – Beth Barberree is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Barberree is a practicing massage therapist and the owner of Massage at the Club. She was the Alberta Party candidate in Calgary-Hawkwood in the 2015 election, earning 4.5 percent of the vote.

Calgary-Mountain View – On April 14, Minister of Justice and Solicitor General Kathleen Ganley became the first NDP candidate officially nominated to run in the next election. Ganley was first elected as the MLA for Calgary-Buffalo in 2015, but recently announced she would seek re-election in the neighbouring Calgary-Mountain View district. The district is currently represented by four-term Liberal MLA David Swann, who has announced he plans to retire from politics when the next election is called.

Camrose – Rob Johnson is seeking the UCP nomination. Johnson ran for the Wildrose Party nomination in Battle River-Wainwright in 2011 and was the Wildrose candidate in Strathcona-Sherwood Park in the 2015 election, earning 23 percent of the vote.

Edmonton-City Centre – Robert Philp is seeking the Alberta Party nomination. Philip is a former judge and in June 2014 was appointed Chief of the Commission and Tribunals, Alberta Human Rights Commission.

Edmonton-Mill Woods – The NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting to take place on May 6, 2018. Incumbent MLA and Minister of Labour Christina Gray is expected to be nominated. Gray was first elected in 2015, earning 64 percent of the vote.

Lacombe-Ponoka – MLA Ron Orr is seeking the UCP nomination. Orr was first elected as a Wildrose Party MLA in 2015, earning 35 percent of the vote. In November 2017, the former Baptist pastor suggested that the legalization of marijuana in Canada could lead to a communist revolution.

Lethbridge-East – The NDP have scheduled a nomination meeting for May 6, 2018. Incumbent MLA Maria Fitzpatrick is expected to be nominated. Fitzpatrick was first elected in 2015, earning 47 percent of the vote. Unlike most southern Alberta districts, Lethbridge-East has a long history of bucking the province-wide conservative trend. From 1993 to 2011, this district was represented by Liberal MLAs Ken Nicol and Bridget Pastoor. Pastoor crossed the floor to the PCs in 2011 and was re-elected in 2012.

Peace River – Shelly Shannon is the fifth candidate to enter the UCP nomination contest in this district. Shannon is the advertising manager of the Postmedia owned Peace River Record Gazette and is the past president of the Peace River and District Chamber of Commerce. She previously served as a regional director for the now-defunct PC Party.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list.

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Alberta Politics

Who would win a Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo by-election?

Mike Allen MLA
Mike Allen MLA

After being arrested in a prostitution sting in St. Paul, Minnesota, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo MLA Mike Allen resigned from the Progressive Conservative caucus. For the time-being, Mr. Allen will remain an Independent MLA, as police in St. Paul have yet to place charges against him. Barring charges and a conviction, Mr. Allen could reasonably be expected to complete his term in Legislative Assembly, albeit sitting outside the PC caucus.

The opposition, including Airdrie Wildrose MLA Rob Anderson, have been calling on Mr. Allen to resign as MLA. If, by chance, Mr. Allen did resign as MLA, voters in the northern Alberta constituency would choose a new representative in a by-election.

A key battlefield in the 2012 provincial election, how would Alberta’s political parties fare in a Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo by-election?

Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo (image from wikipedia)
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo (image from wikipedia)

In 2012, Mr. Allen was elected with 3,609 votes (49%), defeating Wildrose MLA Guy Boutilier, who earned 3,164 votes (42.9%). A unique election, Mr. Boutilier served as a PC MLA since his first election in 1997 until he left the Tory caucus in 2009 and joined the Wildrose in 2010. According to Elections Alberta financial reports, Mr. Allen’s campaign spent $72,825 in the campaign, compared to Mr. Boutilier’s $65,457.

In the 2012 Elections Alberta financial disclosures, the PC constituency association in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo reported net assets of $11,438.40. The Wildrose constituency association listed $549.58 in net assets at the end of 2012.

Low voter turnout, 34%, in the 2012 general election suggests that many voters in the constituency are undeclared or unidentified by the parties.

Despite electing candidates in both Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo and neighbouring Fort McMurray-Conklin (where Tory Don Scott defeated Wildrose candidate Doug Faulkner), the Wildrose candidates earned strong second place finishes in the 2012 election.

Fort McMurray Today reports Mr. Boutilier remains silent on a possible comeback, but a by-election triggered by a Tory sex scandal would be the ideal scenario an opposition politician could hope for.

Guy Boutilier
Guy Boutilier

A Liberal base in Fort McMurray, which elected MLA Adam Germain in the 1993 election, has near completely eroded with that party earning 3% of the vote in both constituencies. The NDP saw a spike of support in constituency in the the 2001 election, but have not had much success in the three elections held since.

Who would the Tories look to for a by-election candidate? Would any of Mr. Allen’s challengers in last year’s PC nomination step up? Candidates in last year’s PC nomination race included Andrew Highfield, Nick Sanders, and school trustee Jeff Thompson. Popular Wood Buffalo mayor Melissa Blake, who is seeking re-election in this year’s municipal vote, would be seen as a star candidate for any party and could easily fill a top cabinet position if elected into government.

A rash of automobile accidents caused deaths on the busy highway 63 put heavy pressure on the governing Tories last year. The heavy pressures of a being boom-town have created many unique growth and social challenges in this northern Alberta community that could easily become an issue in a locally-focused by-election.

But Premier Alison Redford‘s Tories may want to avoid an embarrassing by-election defeat. Two of the three most recent provincial by-elections held in Alberta have resulted in opposition parties electing candidates in formerly government-held constituencies.

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Alberta Politics

the battle begins on alberta’s energy beach: don scott seeks pc nomination in fort mcmurray-conklin.

One might think that the battle to build Oil Sands pipelines or the struggle to fight climate change would be the hottest conflicts on Alberta’s energy beach, but with a provincial election approaching the local political scene is heating up.

Enjoying a laugh: Don Scott and Wood Buffalo Mayor Melissa Blake.
Everybody loves trees: Don Scott and Wood Buffalo Mayor Melissa Blake.

First-term Wood Buffalo regional municipal Councillor Don Scott has launched a website announcing his entry into the contest for the Progressive Conservative nomination in the newly created Fort McMurray-Conklin constituency. Mr. Scott is a lawyer and owner of the McMurray Law Office.

Branding himself as ‘A Strong Voice‘ for the Wood Buffalo region, Mr. Scott faces the task of winning Alberta’s energy beach back for his party. Until 2009, the Progressive Conservatives had represented this area since the retirement of Liberal MLA Adam Germain in 1997.

When the next provincial election is called, the south and east half of the current Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo constituency will be carved-off to form Fort McMurray-Conklin. The 2008 municipal census estimated that there were over 100,000 people living in the booming Wood Buffalo region.

Pensive Boutilier Stelmach
Pensive face: Guy Boutilier with former Premier Ed Stelmach in 2008.

Incumbent MLA Guy Boutilier was booted from the PC caucus in 2009 and joined the Wildrose Party in 2010. Mr. Boutilier was first elected in 1997 and served as a cabinet minister in the government of Premier Ralph Klein.

Mr. Boutilier was ejected from the PC caucus in 2009 after accusing then-Health Minister Ron Liepert of “talking gibberish” about the construction of a permanent long-term care facility for seniors in Fort McMurray and then criticizing Premier Ed Stelmach for not wanting a cabinet minister “who graduated from Harvard with Barack Obama” (Boutilier later admitted that he never met Obama while at Harvard).

Mr. Boutilier has yet to announce which of the new Fort McMurray constituencies he will seek re-election in. Perhaps he will run in both.

While testifying to the Alberta Energy Utilities Board in 2006, then-Environment Minister Boutilier told Mikisew Cree First Nation lawyer Don Mallon that at the time, he was not speaking as the Minister of the Environment, but as an MLA. When asked how he could do this, Boutilier testified that he could actually turn off the part of his brain where he was the Minister of Environment. An impressive feat for any elected official.

While Mr. Boutilier’s changing political allegiances will likely be a defining topic in the next campaign, he may not be alone. According to the Elections Alberta financial disclosures, the Donald Scott Professional Corporation donated $1,000 to the local Wildrose Party constituency association in 2010.

Fort McMurray political watchers have suggested that former Councillor and two-time Liberal Party candidate John Vyboh may seek the Wildrose Party nomination in whichever of the twin Fort McMurray constituencies that Mr. Boutilier is not running in. The other opposition parties have yet to nominate candidates in either of the soon to be created Fort McMurray twin constituencies.

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