Category: Ed Stelmach

pre-recorded commentary on premier stelmach’s pre-recorded televised address.

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 15, 2009
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In twenty minutes, Premier Ed Stelmach will join Albertans from across the province by sitting down with a bag of popcorn and watching his pre-recorded, edited, and scripted dinner hour television address. Hyped as a talk about the provincial budget and economy, Stelmach’s 18-minute slot has been billed as “The Way Forward” (I guess the Premier is a Ford guy).

Kind of like the ShamWow…

The pre-recorded production is expected to include shots of Stelmach talking about a four point plan to respond to the record provincial budget deficit on-site from numerous locations, including his family farm near Andrew. He’s been Premier for over two years, but many Albertans still don’t know who the real Ed Stelmach is, and it shows in the polls. If he actually takes off his funeral director suit and dons something more comfortable and familiar (perhaps a little plaid?), it may first time Albertans have been allowed to see a glimpse of Ed the Farmer.

He actually has to say something.

Stelmach has a difficult time articulating himself when speaking in public, so it is possible that this kind of pre-recorded, edited, and scripted production could allow the Premier to present a message that is understandable without the help of a decoder ring. On the other hand, the pricey production value could decrease the believability of the message (Stelmach’s 2007 pre-produced TV address cost taxpayers $145,000). David Climenhaga and Don Braid both have some interesting pre-recorded commentary on Stelmach’s pre-recorded, edited, and scripted address.

Will it make a difference?

At its core, this is an expensive PR stunt. It is difficult to imagine that even in an 18-minute pre-produced, edited, and scripted television advertisement that the Premier will be able to ease the public tension and discontent that has grown around the record budget deficit, confusing messages around changes to health care, a new resource royalty framework, Bill 44, Bill 50, and hefty staff payhikes and bonuses (to name a few).

Commentary 2.0.

In the spirit of tonight’s pre-recorded, edited, and scripted piece of dinner theatre, you can follow my pre-recorded, edited, and scripted commentary on twitter at @davecournoyer and others commentary at #ableg.

round up: podcasts, post-partisanism, open data, and new polls.

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 14, 2009
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– In the spirit of transparent & innovative government (and just in time for ChangeCamp Edmonton), Edmonton Councillor Don Iveson submitted an Open Data inquiry to the City Administration. This is a really positive step for our city.

– Duncan Wojtaszek and I were guests on the latest podcast from The Unknown Studio. Topic? Two former PC and Liberal activists talk Post-Partisanism and the Perils of Politics. Take a listen and let me know what you think of the podcast!

– The Unknown Studio podcast co-host Adam Rozenhart has a great new post on partisanship and what a real statesman looks like: ‘Dave? I’d take a bullet for ya’.

– It’s a busy week in Alberta politics and common sense conservative Chris Labossiere has offered his thoughts on the Wildrose Alliance, Premier Ed Stelmach, and the upcoming PC convention.

– Via David Climenhaga, I’ve discovered a link to a new polling company: Return on Insight. The company was set up by Bruce Cameron, who is known to many political watchers as a supporter of former Finance Minister Lyle Oberg. Cameron is less known as the man who got a nasty reaction out of former Calgary-Egmont PC candidate nominee Craig Chandler in 2007. Poll results released by Cameron’s new company were reported in today’s Edmonton Journal:

A telephone survey of 802 people conducted last week by Cameron’s firm show 22 per cent of Albertans strongly disapprove of Stelmach’s performance, compared with 16 per cent who did so in a January 2008 poll.

The Government of Alberta will be airing an 18-minute pre-taped and edited television address by Stelmach this evening.

Ed Stelmach Fred Horne Health Care Raj Sherman Ron Liepert Stephen Duckett

stelmach chats in medicine hat.

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 13, 2009
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After months in apparent seclusion, Premier Ed Stelmach recently emerged for a rare interview with Medicine Hat’s CHAT Television (an interview that was a much less scripted production than what is expected in his upcoming pre-taped televised address). The interview doesn’t give any new indication to the direction that the Premier would like to take Alberta, but he did touch on the topics of of Education, the Wildrose Alliance, the provincial deficit…

…, and Health Care.

While poorly communicating changes in Alberta’s Health Care system has more recently become the exclusive domain of Health Minister Ron Liepert and Alberta Health Services CEO Dr. Stephen Duckett, it now appears that Edmonton-Rutherford PC MLA Fred Horne is the new third wheel in the group. After vocal public pressure emerged against Duckett’s announcement that he was closing mental health beds at Edmonton’s Alberta Hospital, Horne was appointed to co-chair the “implementation committee” that will now oversee a slower closure of the beds.

I expect Horne to be a competent appointee, but I am curious what his elevation to this committee means to the internal politics of the PC caucus. Given that Edmonton-Meadowlark PC MLA and parliamentary assistant to the Minister of Health Raj Sherman has a unique insight into the medical world and has been very honest about his past challenges with mental health, I find it very curious that he wasn’t chosen to be the “Premier’s eyes and ears” on this committee.

Danielle Smith Dave Bronconnier David Swann Ed Stelmach Ernie Isley Joe Anglin Kyle Fawcett Paul Hinman Ralph Klein

save the date: alberta politics in fall 2009.

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 9, 2009
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October 14: Premier Ed Stelmach will deliver a televised address on CTV and AccessTV.

It is no surprise that Stelmach has a difficult time articulating himself when speaking in public, so these kind of productions will allow the Premier to present a message that is pre-produced, edited, and heavily scripted. The address is being pitched as a talk on the economy titled “The Way Forward.” This avenue presents Stelmach with the opportunity to make bold announcements, but I expect that while making numerous references to tough economic times, he will focus on the government’s legislative agenda, economic agreements with neighbouring provinces, public service salary freezes, the recently implemented lobbyist registry, and the international role of Alberta’s oilsands. It is also difficult to imagine Stelmach not mentioning that the Governments of Alberta and Canada have provided a $865 million subsidy for carbon capture projects to Shell, one of the largest and most profitable oil companies in the world.

Stelmach’s 2007 televised address cost taxpayers $145,000, and with internet ads already popping up, I wouldn’t be surprised if the total cost was closer $200,000 this year. The Premier has already been booked on the Rutherford Show for the next morning, so expect a full court press.

October 17: Riding high in the polls, the Wildrose Alliance will announce the results of their leadership contest after over 11,000 members vote to choose either Danielle Smith or Mark Dyrholm as their new leader. It was first rumoured that ten, and now four PC MLAs are interested in chatting with Smith if she wins the contest. Since outgoing leader Paul Hinman was by-elected in Calgary-Glenmore, a number of former Progressive Conservative MLAs, including former cabinet minister Ernie Isley have joined that party.

Also on October 17 is ChangeCamp Edmonton, an event that invites Edmontonians and Albertans to re-imagine government in the age of participation. As citizens, we have a responsibility and opportunity to start redesigning the way that we participate in government. Interested? Register online for free and join the conversation on October 17!

October 26-December 3: The Alberta Legislature will sit for the first time since the spring session ended with widespread opposition to Bill 44. I anticipate the first two weeks of the fall session to be about positioning Stelmach and his cabinet in a positive light before the PC leadership review. There continues to be talk of a cabinet shuffle, and with the retirement of Ron Stevens, Stelmach has been left without a designated Calgary Lieutenant. Justice Minister Alison Redford appears to be a natural fit for this position, but with rumoured leadership ambitions herself, she may be cautious to how tight she tethers her horse to Stelmach’s buggy.

I foresee the building conflict over Bill 50, the mess inside the Department of Children Services, staff pay hikes and bonuses, cuts to health care and education, and continuing anger over Bill 44 to dominate the debate. With the Copenhagen Conference happening in December, expect Greenpeace hold another round of oilsands actions. Also, with new allies (including Enmax and Calgary Mayor Dave Bronconnier), landowners rights advocate Joe Anglin will be out in full force against Bill 50.

November 6-7: Premier Stelmach will face delegates at the PC leadership review in Red Deer. There is a lot of talk about how unhappy some PC supporters are with Stelmach and I don’t doubt it. Former PC insider Hal Walker has publicly dismissed the Premier, Ralph Klein has mused that the Premier should step down if he receives less than 70% support, and Calgary-North Hill PC MLA Kyle Fawcett has publicly said that Stelmach has “done very little” to convince Calgarians that he’s capable of leading the province. There is also a rumoured behind-the-scenes campaign to draft Calgary philanthropist and media personality Brett Wilson to save the dynasty that Peter Lougheed built.

The critics are vocal, but when push comes to shove I believe that the delegates to this convention will heed to the party brass and rally to protect the brand by giving Stelmach the support he needs to continue to occupy his current office.

November 6 and 26: The Alberta Liberals will be hosting their annual leader’s dinner in Calgary and Edmonton, the first since David Swann became leader of the Official Opposition in December 2008. While some Liberals remain optimistic, that party has been tied down by debt since their disasterous election campaign in 2001. The ticket sales and fundraising numbers from these two dinners will be a key indicator of the financial support that the Liberals are receiving from their traditional larger donors.

Calgary-Glenmore Danielle Smith Darshan Kang David Swann Ed Stelmach Kent Hehr Paul Hinman polls Wild Rose Alliance

snapshot wildrose: new poll places wildrose alliance in second place.

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 8, 2009
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Polls can sometimes be strange and unpredictable snapshots, but this one is fascinating:

Alberta-wide
Progressive Conservative: 38.4%
Wildrose Alliance: 21.5%
Liberal: 20.5%
NDP: 10.7%
Other: 8.5%

Edmonton
Progressive Conservative: 34.5%
Liberal: 27.5%
NDP: 17%
Wildrose Alliance: 13.1%
Other: 11.1%

Calgary
Progressive Conservative: 38.2%
Wildrose Alliance: 27%
Liberal: 20.7%
NDP: 6.6%
Other: 7.7%

Initial thoughts: A public approval poll in June revealed that Albertans were disgruntled and cranky with their current political leadership and the results of this poll appears to confirm that.

This is obvious good news for the Wildrose Alliance because it means that many Albertans are aware enough of their existence to support them when questioned by a telephone surveyor (even if they’re not sure what that party stands for). Their leadership vote is on October 17, and this poll paired with the recent by-election of Paul Hinman in Calgary-Glenmore strengthens the appearance that they are the only party with a semblance of momentum. The challenge will be to keep Albertans interested as they learn more about the right-wing party. In my opinion, Danielle Smith is the only candidate in their leadership contest with the potential to drive the momentum further.

The poll results show negative momentum for the traditional political parties in the two largest urban centers (I haven’t seen the rural results). With Official Opposition leader David Swann hailing from Calgary, the Liberals should be concerned by their 13% drop in the city that was their only growth area in the last election (the Liberals increased their Calgary seat total to five MLAs with the election of Kent Hehr and Darshan Kang). While they remain in a province-wide distant third place, the poll results suggest that the NDP are have largely held on to their base of support in Edmonton and very moderately increased their already extremely small base of support in Calgary.

With a leadership review fast approaching, this poll is bad news for Premier Ed Stelmach. The PC party brass may attempt to spin the results as a case for party members to rally to protect their party’s brand, but for the non-partisan majority, there is a large question of what the long-governing PCs even still stand for. With their lowest poll results in recent memory, it is clear that many Albertans are questioning the leadership and the confused direction that the the near 40-year ruling party is taking our province.

UPDATE: Here is a link to the PDF of the poll results.

Alberta Oil Sands Brian Beresh Ed Stelmach Fred Lindsay Greenpeace Mike Hudema

alberta and greenpeace: claims of political interference.

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 6, 2009
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At a media conference on the steps of the Alberta Legislature this afternoon, lawyer Brian Beresh raised concerns that comments by Premier Ed Stelmach and Solicitor General Fred Lindsay could constitute political interference in Alberta’s judicial system. Beresh, who is representing Greenpeace activists recently arrested in Fort Saskatchewan and Fort McMurray, told reporters that he was stunned by Stelmach’s comments that protesters who trespass at oil and gas facilities should face harsher punishments and Lindsay’s musing about using the province’s counter-terrorism provisions against protesters.

With no evidence that the legal system is not working as it should be, it is being suggested by some legal experts that Stelmach’s comments may have hurt the prosecution’s case in court. In a media release, Greenpeace campaigner Mike Hudema was quoted stating that “most of us learned in Grade 5 that it is fundamental to our legal system that there must be a separation between the premier and the judicial process.” Beresh noted that the tone of the bail negotiations changed after Premier Stelmach’s public comments, implying that the release of the activists in Fort Saskatchewan was made more difficult because of the Premier.

Via twitter, my friend Chris Henderson put it best:

Special penalties for protesting is tantamount to suppressing free speech. Punish trespassing, not dissent.

Alberta Oil Sands Alberta Security and Strategic Intelligence Support Team Ed Stelmach Fred Lindsay Greenpeace

alberta and greenpeace: it’s about site security, stupid!

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 6, 2009
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Following recent actions by Greenpeace, Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach and Solicitor General Fred Lindsay have suggested that protesters who trespass at oil and gas facilities should face harsher punishments.

I have no doubt that the two politicians are eager to see justice dealt, but at this point in time there does not appear to be any evidence to suggest that our legal system is not working as it should be. The protesters have been arrested and are now facing charges of trespassing and mischief.

There are a number of obvious root causes of these incidents and none of them have to do with getting tough on crime. While attempting to focus international media attention on Alberta’s oilsands before the Copenhagen Conference, Greenpeace activists planning and executing actions like these know what they are doing is illegal and they don’t care. Instead of blaming the legal system, Stelmach and Lindsay should take real action by 1) articulating why their vision for oilsands development is the right one for Alberta, Canada and the world; and 2) improving public confidence in how our most valuable nature resources are being safeguarded.

What is the state of security in Alberta’s oilsands?

Just as a confidential report prepared by sector experts has highlighted serious concerns about security in the oilsands, Shell is now taking productive steps by publicly vowing to review facility security. While the conclusions have now been contradicted by the evidence presented through Greenpeace’s canoe-paddling incursion skillz, Solicitor General Lindsay described the provincial security plan as “one of the most comprehensive in the country” in the Legislative Assembly on February 19, 2009.

Mr. Richard Marz: My first question is to the Solicitor General and Minister of Public Security. What measures are in place to protect Alberta’s energy resources such as the oil sands?

The Speaker: The hon. minister.

Mr. Lindsay: Thank you, Mr. Speaker. This government does have a plan in place to protect all critical infrastructure in our province. The Alberta counterterrorism crisis management plan emphasizes the use of intelligence from a range of sources to identify, mitigate, or prevent a security threat before it occurs, and the Alberta Security and Strategic Intelligence Support Team gathers, analyzes, distributes critical intelligent information to industry and law enforcement. Partnership and collaboration between government, industry, and law enforcement is the backbone of our counterterrorism plan.

Mr. Marz: My final question, Mr. Speaker, to the same minister. There have been several pipeline bombings in northwestern British Columbia in the past few months. What assurance can the minister provide that pipelines in Alberta will be protected from attacks such as the ones in B.C.?

Mr. Lindsay: Mr. Speaker, the Alberta government takes the security of our energy resources very seriously. There is no indication that Alberta Energy infrastructure is at risk, and our threat level remains low. However, we will continue to work with the oil and gas industry and law enforcement agencies to ensure the security of the industry. Our counterterrorism and crisis management plan is regarded as one of the most comprehensive in the country and is continually reviewed to make sure it meets the stringent requirements of both government and industry.

Alberta Tourism Ed Stelmach Greenpeace

alberta and greenpeace: tourists at home and abroad.

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date October 5, 2009
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Agree or disagree with their intentions and methods, it is hard to not be fascinated with the recent Greenpeace actions across Alberta at oilsands extraction sites near Fort McMurray and a Shell smokestack near Fort Saskatchewan. These live-streamed-to-the-world actions are part of a new reality as our province becomes more internationally known for our energy resources and the results of the extraction practices that we allow the oil companies to use.

The stunted political discourse in Alberta may continue to focus on the folly of a $2 billion carbon capture scheme, but Albertans should know that much of the international discourse around energy and the environment is centered around the decisions that will be made at the Copenhagen Conference in December 2009.

The reaction to the Greenpeace actions from our politicians was as provincialist as I expected. Premier Ed Stelmach, perhaps still perturbed over Greenpeace dropping in at a PC Party fundraiser, was reportedly fuming when he declared that the government would not “put up with this kind of behaviour again.” Rather than taking the high-ground in this debate, Stelmach was then quoted saying something that I found to be quite debasing:

“Most of these protesters are from outside the country of Canada. They are really tourists telling us how we should develop our resources.”

The Alberta government has spent hundreds of millions of taxpayers dollars being tourists. In an attempt to attract international attention and investment the Alberta government operates trade offices in Beijing, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, Munich, London, Mexico City, and Washington DC. The Alberta government spends hundreds of thousands of dollars annually to send Cabinet Ministers and MLAs to international conferences around the world as representatives of our natural resources. This year, the Alberta government spent $25 million on an advertising campaign in an attempt to re-brand the oilsands after the unfortunate Anatidae family incident.

I do not oppose the Alberta government representing our province overseas, I encourage it. But I expect that as our Cabinet Ministers and MLAs wine and dine at expensive international cocktail parties, that they appreciate of subtle shades of responses that the international attention they desire will draw. Just as the Alberta government sends its tourists around the world, our elected officials would be fools to not expect international organizations like Greenpeace to spend resources being tourists in our backyard.

Bill 50: Electrical Statues Amendment Act Brett Wilson Danielle Smith Dave Bronconnier Don Iveson Ed Stelmach

the you’re fired grab bag.

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date September 29, 2009
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1) You’re fired. At least that is what supporters of Calgary philanthropist Brett Wilson may want delegates to November’s PC leadership review to tell Premier Ed Stelmach.

While Stelmach attempts to deal with his predecessor’s solid track-record of short-sighted fiscal planning, Wilson was spotted in the company of American billionaire Donald Trump while participating in the Eastern Ontario Economic Showcase.

2) Duncan Wojtaszek and I were the two lucky guests on the 9th episode of the Unknown Studio, set to be released around the second week of October. The topic? Politics, post-partisanship, and changing the game! If you aren’t familiar with Adam and Scott’s podcast, take a listen to my two personal favorites (episode two and episode four) that include interviews with Don Iveson and Scott Lilwall.

3) Friend of Daveberta, the Enlightened Savage has launched a series of blog posts titled Perfecting Alberta. Take a read and contribute in his posts on Health Care, Primary & Secondary Education, and Economics & Industry.

4) Both Enmax and Calgary Mayor Dave Bronconnier have waded into the debate over Bill 50. I believe that this is a more complex issue than some proponents may have the public believe and I am working on an expanded blog post with some thoughts.

5) The Alberta NDP have begun hosting a series of meetings on the always hot topic of Health Care. Last week, nursing students from the University of Alberta rallied at the Legislature, expressing their frustrations about future job prospects in Alberta.

6) Premier Stelmach has recently denied rumours that 10 PC MLAs would cross to the Wildrose Alliance if Danielle Smith wins that party’s leadership on October 17. Calgary Rants has some thoughts on the speculation.

Bill 44 Broyce Jacobs Danielle Smith Ed Stelmach Kyle Fawcett Paul Hinman Rob Anderson Ted Morton

will danielle smith ignite a wildrose fire in the pc caucus?

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date September 25, 2009
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Alex Abboud and Trish Audette have already written about this, but an anonymous source reported in this week’s subscription-only issue* of Alberta Scan has suggested that 10 Progressive Conservative MLAs could cross the floor to the Wildrose Alliance if potential game changer Danielle Smith is selected in the October 17 leadership vote.

How likely is this?

With 70 MLAs in the 83 seat legislature, the PCs have a broad-range of political diversity in their caucus ranging from liberals/Red Tories to hard-core angry social conservatives, with a large group of simple pro-government pragmatists filling the gap in between. While Ed Stelmach‘s tenure as Premier began three years ago with a number of funding increases and semi-progressive moves (like the creation of the now almost existent lobbyist registry), a number of recent events seem to suggest that the right-wingers in the PC caucus have been taking advantage of the current leadership vacuum to drive their own agenda.

A number of right-wing champions appear to have solidly integrated themselves into the PCs institutional machinery: Ted Morton is widely seen as a competent Minister of Sustainable Resource Development, and following Kyle Fawcett‘s very public apology to Premier Stelmach, it appears that the Stelmach loyalist’s appointment to an important government committee was cancelled in favour of Bill 44 advocate Airdrie-Chestermere MLA Rob Anderson. Right-wing Calgary-Egmont MLA Jonathan Denis has just been appointed as Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Energy, and Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Broyce Jacobs is now the Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Agriculture.

Many of these MLAs are driving the agenda behind legislation like Bill 44 and pushing Stelmach’s public shift to the right following Alberta’s record budget deficit and Paul Hinman‘s victory in the Calgary-Glenmore by-election. It’s hard to disagree that there is disgruntlement with Stelmach’s leadership inside the PC caucus, it is difficult to understand why the more right-wing conservatives would leave the governing caucus to occupy the opposition benches.

This said, any PC MLA crossing the floor to the Wildrose Alliance could change the political landscape in the Alberta Legislature, especially if they are a cabinet minister. If only a hand full of PC MLAs joined a Danielle Smith-led Wildrose Alliance, they could easily replace the two-MLA NDP caucus as the third party. With only 9 MLAs, the Liberal Official Opposition could become the third-place party if the rumoured 10 PC MLAs joined what would become an 11 MLA official opposition.

*Anyone can read Alberta Scan and many other publications for free at the Legislative Assembly Library.

Brett Wilson Ed Stelmach

from the dragons’ den to under the dome?

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date September 18, 2009
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Insight into Government is reporting talk that Brett Wilson, co-founder of First Energy Capital and a panelist on the CBCs the Dragons’ Den is getting ready to step forward as a leadership candidate if Premier Ed Stelmach fares poorly in the November 6-7 PC leadership review.

I originally heard this rumour in the spring, but with the PC leadership review fast approaching, the thought of a party leader like Wilson may influence the votes of some party delegates to November convention.

Wilson can be found on twitter at @WBrettWilson.

Calgary-Glenmore Ed Stelmach Kyle Fawcett

mla apologizes for saying what 74% of calgary-glenmore voters were thinking.

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date September 18, 2009
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And here I was thinking that the PCs had implemented a strategic communications plan to begin recovering their support after the Calgary-Glenmore by-election defeat.

Tory MLA apologizes to Stelmach

Calgary North Hill MLA Kyle Fawcett has apologized to Premier Ed Stelmach for being critical of his leadership abilities.

Fawcett suggested Stelmach had done little to give confidence to Calgarians that he has the ability to lead the province.

The rookie Conservative MLA made the comment after the party finished third in a byelection in Calgary on Monday.

Stelmach and Fawcett met for a conversation on Thursday and Fawcett offered an apology for his comment, the premier said.

“He was remorseful, and he said, look, you know, I just got caught in the heat of the loss and certainly dejected, and I know what it feels like,” said Stelmach.

I guess I gave them too much credit.

(h/t Andrew McIntyre)

Calgary-Glenmore Ed Stelmach Kyle Fawcett

not without permission.

Two backbench PC MLAs have spoken to the media about the results of the Calgary-Glenmore by-election and their concerns about a hostile political environment in Calgary. Calgary-North Hill MLA Kyle Fawcett told the Calgary Herald that he believes Premier Ed Stelmach has:

“done very little, I believe, to instil confidence in at least people in Calgary that he has the leadership capabilities to lead this province.

This is quite the stunning change of opinion by Fawcett, who has developed a reputation as a Stelmach-evangelist on the floor of the Legislative Assembly. Here is an exert of Fawcett’s speech in the Assembly on February 12, 2009:

Our Premier is a man of extraordinary vision, someone who fails to fall into the trap of regressive thinking during challenging times. He is a steady hand at the wheel of the ship in turbulent times. When others retreat, he has the optimism to search for the light at the end of the tunnel, the beacon of hope that all Albertans aspire to. He has the dogged determination to push forward to establish this province’s place in the new world paradigm when the negativity of others is enough to stop progress dead in its tracks.

It seems very likely that both MLAs were either asked to or given permission to speak to the media to counter accusations that backbenchers speaking against the Premier will be ‘Boutilierd‘ and to temper any anti-Stelmach sentiment that clearly wasn’t understood in a recent media release. I have been told that a similar tactic of external criticism only after internal permission was adopted by the Deep-Six, of which Premier Stelmach was a member.

Alison Redford Calgary-Glenmore Dave Rodney Doug Horner Ed Stelmach Iris Evans Janice Sarich Janis Tarchuk Len Webber Peter Lougheed Ron Stevens

a calgary-glenmore induced cabinet shuffle?

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date September 15, 2009
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I briefly touched on this point in my previous post, but the potential for a cabinet shuffle before the fall session of the Legislative Assembly begins in October seems imminent after yesterday’s results in the Calgary-Glenmore by-election. I started hearing serious rumours of a cabinet shuffle during the spring session of the Assembly. They mostly began following the announcement of the deficit in the 2009 provincial budget and intensified following the controversy over Bill 44.

A shuffle within Finance & Enterprise is the rumour I’ve heard most frequently. With Minister Iris Evans being in the most unfortunate position to have tabled Alberta’s first deficit budget in 15 years, it wouldn’t be completely shocking if Premier Ed Stelmach wanted this position shuffled. Sources close to a PC cabinet minister have told me that Advanced Education & Technology Minister Doug Horner is seen as the natural fit for this position. Horner is well-respected and has been a competent Minister in his current portfolio.

The resignation of Deputy Premier Ron Stevens left Stelmach without a recognized Calgary Lieutenant in his cabinet. Although she doesn’t have the type of corporate Calgary credentials as Stevens, I could see the Deputy Premier role being filled by Justice Minister Alison Redford.

With Children’s Services Minister Janis Tarchuk reaching the end of her political rope, Evans could easily be shuffled back into the Children’s Services portfolio, an position that she passionately filled from 1999 to 2004.

For Advanced Education & Technology, I have heard a number of names floated including PC backbenchers Len Webber, Janice Sarich, Doug Griffiths, Jonathan Denis, Dave Rodney, and cabinet ministers Heather Klimchuk and Ted Morton. I have a difficult time believing that Morton would be moved from Sustainable Resource Development (a ministry where he is recognized as being competent), the results of the Calgary-Glenmore by-election make it likely that a Calgary MLA will be picked.

I’m told that many inside Stelmach’s inner circle take great joy in comparing themselves to the government of Peter Lougheed. If this is a motivator, I could easily see both Horner and Webber, two second generation PC MLAs whose father’s served in Lougheed’s government, be appointed to elevated positions around the cabinet table.

UPDATE: Len Webber has been appointed Minister of Intergovernmental and International Affairs. This appears to be Premier Stelmach’s only new appointment to the Cabinet.

Further UPDATE: From the GOA:

Premier Stelmach also named Calgary-Egmont MLA Jonathan Denis as the new Parliamentary Assistant for Energy. Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Broyce Jacobs becomes the Parliamentary Assistant for Agriculture and Rural Development (ARD). And Battle River-Wainwright MLA Doug Griffiths moves from his role as the Parliamentary Assistant in ARD to become the Parliamentary Assistant for the Department of Solicitor General and Public Security.

Avalon Roberts Calgary-Glenmore Diane Colley-Urquhart Ed Stelmach Eric Carpendale Len Skowronski Paul Hinman Sheldon Chumir

calgary-glenmore by-election results.

Post author By Dave Cournoyer
Post date September 15, 2009
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Paul Hinman, WAP: 4,052 (37%)
Avalon Roberts, Lib: 3,776 (34%)
Diane Colley-Urquhart, PC: 2,863 (26%)
Eric Carpendale, NDP: 148 (1%)
Len Skowronski, SC: 118 (1%)
Tony Gronchowski, Ind: 71 (1%)

There will undoubtedly be no shortage of analysis and punditry about the impact of these results during the political season this fall, so here are some thoughts to help start it off:

– Calgary-Glenmore represents only the fourth time since 1979 where a provincial by-election has resulted in a switch of party representation. This is the second since Ed Stelmach became Premier in 2006.

– Paul Hinman is returning to the Alberta Legislature. Hinman is the outgoing Wildrose Alliance leader and served as the MLA for Cardston-Taber-Warner from 2004 to 2008. A 37% victory is far from a landslide, but it appears that Hinman’s SEND ED A MESSAGE campaign resonated with a plurality of voters in Glenmore. It will be interesting to see if this by-election win increases public interest in that party’s leadership race scheduled for October 17.

– The Alberta Liberals were hoping to build on their Calgary gains from the 2008 election, but candidate Avalon Roberts’ strong second-place finish showed that the Liberals have been unable to grow their share of the vote from 2008. This is not great news for an Official Opposition party that has constantly struggled to define itself.

– How could Diane Colley-Urquhart not win? Some pundits may point out that the last time a PC candidate placed so poorly in a Calgary by-election was Calgary-Buffalo in 1992. While I’m not disputing that Rod Love‘s third place finish in the 1992 contest was embarrassing, the Calgary-Glenmore scenario is quite different. Unlike Calgary-Buffalo in 1992, which had been represented by popular Liberal MLA Sheldon Chumir, Calgary-Glenmore has been a PC stronghold since 1971. Also, unlike Love, Diane Colley-Urquhart was not a parachute candidate. Colley-Urquhart is a nine-year Alderman, a former President of the Glenmore PC Association, and the campaign manager for former MLA Ron Stevens. Colley-Urquhart knew Glenmore and the PCs still managed to lose over 3,500 votes in this election.

– When did it become an appropriate use of public resources for the Premier to issue a media release from the Government of Alberta thanking a candidate for running for his party? Rather than congratulating Hinman on his election, Premier Stelmach issued a Government of Alberta media release thanking Colley-Urquhart for her “strong and honourable campaign.” There was no mention of the MLA-elect for Calgary-Glenmore in the media release.

– With an upcoming leadership review, expect Premier Stelmach to initiate some classic overcompensation. Since the end of the spring legislative session, there have been endless rumours about a fall cabinet shuffle and who it could include. Rumour has it that new Calgary faces in the cabinet that could include Dave Rodney and Len Webber.

– The Alberta NDP and Social Credit candidates battled throughout the evening for the fifth place finish, with Socred leader Len Skowronski finally besting NDP flag-bearer Eric Carpendale late in the evening.