Calgary-Glenmore Danielle Smith Darshan Kang David Swann Ed Stelmach Kent Hehr Paul Hinman polls Wild Rose Alliance

snapshot wildrose: new poll places wildrose alliance in second place.

Polls can sometimes be strange and unpredictable snapshots, but this one is fascinating:

Progressive Conservative: 38.4%
Wildrose Alliance: 21.5%
Liberal: 20.5%
NDP: 10.7%
Other: 8.5%

Progressive Conservative: 34.5%
Liberal: 27.5%
NDP: 17%
Wildrose Alliance: 13.1%
Other: 11.1%

Progressive Conservative: 38.2%
Wildrose Alliance: 27%
Liberal: 20.7%
NDP: 6.6%
Other: 7.7%

Initial thoughts: A public approval poll in June revealed that Albertans were disgruntled and cranky with their current political leadership and the results of this poll appears to confirm that.

This is obvious good news for the Wildrose Alliance because it means that many Albertans are aware enough of their existence to support them when questioned by a telephone surveyor (even if they’re not sure what that party stands for). Their leadership vote is on October 17, and this poll paired with the recent by-election of Paul Hinman in Calgary-Glenmore strengthens the appearance that they are the only party with a semblance of momentum. The challenge will be to keep Albertans interested as they learn more about the right-wing party. In my opinion, Danielle Smith is the only candidate in their leadership contest with the potential to drive the momentum further.

The poll results show negative momentum for the traditional political parties in the two largest urban centers (I haven’t seen the rural results). With Official Opposition leader David Swann hailing from Calgary, the Liberals should be concerned by their 13% drop in the city that was their only growth area in the last election (the Liberals increased their Calgary seat total to five MLAs with the election of Kent Hehr and Darshan Kang). While they remain in a province-wide distant third place, the poll results suggest that the NDP are have largely held on to their base of support in Edmonton and very moderately increased their already extremely small base of support in Calgary.

With a leadership review fast approaching, this poll is bad news for Premier Ed Stelmach. The PC party brass may attempt to spin the results as a case for party members to rally to protect their party’s brand, but for the non-partisan majority, there is a large question of what the long-governing PCs even still stand for. With their lowest poll results in recent memory, it is clear that many Albertans are questioning the leadership and the confused direction that the the near 40-year ruling party is taking our province.

UPDATE: Here is a link to the PDF of the poll results.

Alberta Oil Sands polls

canadians unsure about their oil sands reputation?

Just as the Government of Alberta launched a $25 million national and international rebranding campaign to counter critics of current oil sands development practices, the latest Nanos Poll suggests that many Canadians, including here in the West, still have mixed feelings about our oil sands reputation.

Here are the national results and regional breakdown:

Do you believe that oil sands development has a positive, neutral or negative impact on Canada’s reputation abroad?

Positive: 26%
Neutral: 25%
Negative: 35%
Unsure: 14%

Atlantic Canada
Positive: 40%
Neutral: 25%
Negative: 24%
Unsure: 11%

Positive: 14%
Neutral: 29%
Negative: 46%
Unsure: 12%

Positive: 30%
Neutral: 24%
Negative: 29%
Unsure: 17%

Western Canada
Positive: 29%
Neutral: 22%
Negative: 36%
Unsure: 13%

2008 Alberta Provincial Election polls

i’m part of the 45.5%.

Yes, a poll is a poll, but polls tend to become a little more interesting to look at when they’re released 10 days before an expected election call:

Tories: 32%
Alberta Liberals: 18%
NDP: 7%
Wildrose Alliance: 6%
Greens: 3%
Undecided: 26.6%
Not voting: 7%

Gov’t Should Be Re-Elected: 34.5%
I would prefer a change in gov’t: 45.5%

Graham Thomson has an interesting take on this poll in today’s column.

Ed Stelmach Kevin Taft polls

sunday: new poll

A new Leger Marketing poll has Ed Stelmach‘s Tories at 42% (up from 33% in the previous survey), Kevin Taft’s Alberta Liberals at 21% (up from 14%), Brian Mason’s New Democrats dropping to 6% (from 8%), and the Alberta Alliance at 5%.

Both the Tories and Alberta Liberals have increased support and remain the two major players, but all parties remain below their traditional levels of support, indicating that there is still a lot of work to be done in the run up to the next election. I would be very interested to see how the regional breakdowns of support in the poll flushed out (ie: Edmonton v. Calgary v. rural).

With the up and down fluctuations we’ve seen in the polls over the past year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see support levels shift a couple more times in the run up to and during the next election.

(h/t to Ken Chapman for the news link)

2007 Edmonton Municipal Election Alberta Royalty Review polls

edmonton mayoral election poll.

Here are the results from the recent daveberta election poll. Not surprisingly, Stephen Mandel crushed.

Dustin Becker – 1 (1%)
Dave Dowling – 4 (5%)
Khaled Kheireddine – 0 (0%)
Don Koziak – 18 (22%)
George Lam – 1 (1%)
Peter T. Lefaivre – 1 (1%)
Robert Ligertwood – 1 (1%)
Stephen Mandel – 46 (57%)
Bill Whatcott – 8 (10%)

Votes so far: 80
Poll closed

A new poll is now up asking readers their thoughts on the ‘Our Fair Share’ royalty review report and Alberta’s natural resource royalty rates…

2007 Edmonton Municipal Election polls

new edmonton municipal election poll.

Here are the results from the latest daveberta municipal election poll. It should be no surprise that affordable housing, infrastructure and roads, and urban sprawl are some of the big issues on the minds of Edmontonians leading up to October 15.

What will be the biggest issue of the 2007 Edmonton Municipal Election?

Affordable Housing 34% 28
Arts and Culture 1% 1
Crime and Safety 2% 2
Infrastructure and Roads 24% 20
Public Transit 6% 5
Recreation and Parks 1% 1
Regional Cooperation 9% 7
Taxes 5% 4
Urban Sprawl and Growth 15% 12
Other 2% 2
82 votes total

There is also new poll up, so vote early and vote often!

2007 Edmonton Municipal Election polls

updated trustee candidates and new poll.

Similar to the updated list of Edmonton City Council candidates, I have updated the list of candidates acclaiming and contesting seats in the Edmonton Public School Board and Edmonton Catholic School District elections on October 15, 2007.

Also, there is a new 2007 Edmonton Municipal election poll on the sidebar.

The new poll asks:

What will be the biggest issue of the 2007 Edmonton Municipal Election?
Affordable Housing
Arts and Culture
Crime and Safety
Infrastructure and Roads
Public Transit
Recreation and Parks
Regional Cooperation
Urban Sprawl and Growth

Vote early and often!


poll change.

Old poll…

Who will be elected as the MP for Edmonton Strathcona in the next Federal Election?
Linda Duncan, NDP – 221 votes (69%)
Rahim Jaffer, Conservative – 57 votes (18%)
Claudette Roy, Liberal – 41 votes (13%)
319 votes total

(They look like the 2006 results from my old polling districtin Garneau)

New poll…

Who will be the next leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party?
Craig Chandler
Ray Danyluk
Jim Dinning
Dave Hancock
Ted Morton
Mark Norris
Lyle Oberg
Tom Olsen

Vote early and vote often (and you don’t have to adapt to our rules and our voting patterns in this poll).

Ed Stelmach polls Tom Olsen

can’t buy me love.

Yesterday: Polls released showing Ed Stelmach’s Tories dropping 22-percent in support over the past 7 months from 54% in January to 32% in August. A stunningly large 36% of Albertans polled fell into the ‘undecided’ pool.

Today: Stelmach’s Tories announce $350 million in government building upgrades. Can you smell a desperate reaction?

To the 22-point plunge, Stelmach’s spokesperson, the lovey Tom Olsen responded

The reason the dramatic plunge is “believable,” according to Olsen, is that “hundreds of thousands of new Albertans don’t know the history of Progressive Conservative governments in this province and are spending their time assessing what they see.”

Well, I’m not going to spend much time pointing out the hilariousness of Tom Olsen’s response. I’ll defer to Dan for that.

(Also, click here to see CTV’s news report on the story – click on “Kirk Heuser reports“)

Alberta Liberals Alberta Politics Alberta Tories Ed Stelmach polls

albertans going shopping.

A poll released today by Cameron Strategy Group shows Ed Stelmach’s Tories dropping 22 points in the past 7 months to 32% support across Alberta (down from 54% in January 2007).

The poll also shows Stelmach’s Calgary approval ratings dropping from 52% in January to 38% in August (his disapproval rating in Calgary is 40%). Stelmach has also dropped from a January high of 58% to an August 45% in Edmonton, and a 59% to 50% drop in the other regions of Alberta (his disapproval ratings in Edmonton and other Alberta regions are 39% and 26%).

But what is most interesting is the dramatic increase of undecided voters from 18% to 36% in 7 months (with 39% of Calgarians and 36% of Edmontonians falling in the unsure or won’t vote category). From the report:

“The increase in undecided voters in the past 3 months in Alberta is unprecedented. A huge swath of the Alberta electorate is now without a firm voting intention, which means that dramatic changes in the electoral landscape are possible. The key question remains to be answered in the next 6 months is who will be successful in luring these newly undecided voters: the PC’s, who need to bring them back to the fold, or the Liberals, who have not yet shown signs of growth in voter support.”

Here are the regional breakdowns:

Provincial Voting Intentions (January support in brackets)

PC – 32% (54%)
Liberal – 16% (16%)
NDP – 11% (9%)
Alliance – 5% (3%)
Unsure/Won’t vote – 36% (18%)

PC – 30% (59%)
Liberal – 17% (14%)
NDP – 8% (8%)
Alliance – 5% (2%)
Unsure/Won’t vote – 39% (16%)

PC – 27% (50%)
Liberal – 17% (16%)
NDP – 16% (12%)
Alliance – 5% (2%)
Unsure/Won’t vote – 36% (19%)

Other Alberta
PC – 41% (52%)
Liberal – 13% (18%)
NDP – 7% (6%)
Alliance – 7% (4%)
Unsure/Won’t vote – 31% (20%)

Another poll released by Cameron Strategy Group asked the question “Is the Stelmach Government Leading Alberta in the right direction?”

26% responded the ‘right’ direction, 30% responded the ‘wrong’ direction, and 44% were ‘unsure.’ When you compare these numbers to January 2007 when 54% responded ‘right,’ 10% responded ‘wrong,’ and 36% responded ‘undecided’ you can see a pretty substantial shift.

Though these numbers clearly don’t benifit any specific political party, the growing undecided pool of voters leaking from the Tory support hints that a fall 2007 election may start to look more likely (before the S.S. Stelmach sinks any further).

It also means that the Liberals and Tories are going to have to put in extra effort to woo the growing undecided vote in the run up to the next election.

Alberta Tories Ed Stelmach Greg Melchin polls

melchin poll continued…

The hilarious saga of Greg Melchin’s website poll continues as the votes continue to rise this morning in a dramatic seesaw of shifts between ‘excellent’ and ‘below average.’ As of 12:11PM today there have been over 1200 more votes than yesterday morning (I’m betting it’s only 2 or 3 people actually voting)…

Survey of the Month
How would you rate Premier Stelmach’s first session?

Excellent 50.0%
Below Average 37.8%
Satisfactory 10.5%
Average 1.6%
Total Votes: 1395

UPDATE: 1:38PM… 1250 votes later…

Survey of the Month
How would you rate Premier Stelmach’s first session?

Excellent 44.9%
Below Average 35.8%
Satisfactory 18.4%
Average 0.9%
Total Votes: 2645

Alberta Tories Ed Stelmach Greg Melchin polls

the beauty of online polls.

The downside of putting up online polls on your website is that you don’t always get the response you’d like. Take this poll from Calgary North West PC MLA Greg Melchin’s website

Survey of the Month
How would you rate Premier Stelmach’s first session?

Below Average 87.2%
Average 8.1%
Satisfactory 3.5%
Excellent 1.2%
Total Votes: 86

Online polls. Easy to have fun with…

UPDATE! It’s 3:40PM and it looks like Greg Melchin’s Constituency Staff have been keeping themselves busy over the past couple hours…

Survey of the Month
How would you rate Premier Stelmach’s first session?

Excellent – 62.7%
Satisfactory – 17.4%
Below Average – 16.2%
Average – 3.7%
Total Votes: 628

And I’m still trying to figure out what the difference is between ‘Satisfactory’ and ‘Average.’

(Larry Johnsrude also picked up this up on his blog)

ANOTHER UPDATE: It’s 7:29PM and it looks like a battle has begun on Greg Melchin’s website poll between pro- and anti- Stelmachian forces…

Survey of the Month
How would you rate Premier Stelmach’s first session?
Below Average 44.9%

Excellent 41.3%
Satisfactory 11.4%
Average 2.4%
Total Votes: 965

I bet you Greg Melchin’s website has never received this much attention…


new poll.

On the sidebar for your voting pleasure.

This week’s question:

Who will be elected as the MP for Edmonton Strathcona in the next Federal Election?

Linda Duncan, NDP
Rahim Jaffer, Conservative
Claudette Roy, Liberal


poll results.

In June 2007, I placed a poll on this blog to unscientifically gauge the voting intentions of daveberta readers.

With a total of 500 votes, here are the results…

Question: If a provincial election were held today, which party`s candidate would you vote for?

Alberta Alliance 18% 90
Alberta Greens 3% 14
Alberta Liberals 32% 160
Alberta NDP 31% 155
Alberta PC 13% 67
Alberta Social Credit 1% 5
Other 2% 9

I was very interested to see that this blog is quickly becoming a favorite of New Democrats. But considering their 1% and 3% showings of support in the Drumheller-Stettler and Calgary Elbow by-elections I don`t think this is indicative of an orange éruption in the next election.

Also, I`ve put up a new poll for your voting pleasure…

(Also, vote for Harry!)


new poll.

I’ve added a new poll to the sidebar. Feel free to vote!