Tag Archives: Rachel Notley

Stephen Mandel Alberta Party Leadership

Episode 28: An Unconstitutional Dog Ate My Homework

The Friday night bombshell that hit Stephen Mandel and the Alberta Party, the likelihood of Premier Rachel Notley tabling a budget before calling the 2019 election and how much influence the anti-abortion group the Wilberforce Project actually has over United Conservative Party nominations. These are just a few of the hot topics Dave Cournoyer discussed with special guests Natalie Pon and David Climenhaga in this episode of the Daveberta Podcast.

They also delved into the latest candidate nomination news, including recent UCP votes in Calgary-North and Lethbridge-East, former CBC reporter John Archer’s candidacy in Edmonton-South West, and whether we are ever going to find out the true identity of the mystery UCP candidate in Red Deer-South. They also opened the mailbag to answer some of the questions you have sent us over the past few weeks.

Daveberta Podcast Dave Cournoyer Natalie Pon David Climenhaga Alberta Politics Election

Dave Cournoyer with special guests Natalie Pon and David Climenhaga.

The Daveberta Podcast is a member of the Alberta Podcast Network powered by ATB Financial.

You can listen and subscribe on Apple PodcastsGoogle Play, SpotifyStitcher, or wherever you find podcasts online.

We always love to feedback from our listeners, so let us know what you think of this episode and leave a review where you download. You can also comment on the blogFacebook or Twitter or send us an email at podcast@daveberta.ca.

And a huge thanks to our producer, Adam Rozenhart, who keeps us on track and makes each episode of the Daveberta Podcast sound so great.

Thank you for listening!

Recommended reading/events/listening:

NDP MLA Colin Piquette not seeking re-election, Kelly Mandryk nominated for NDP in Calgary-North

Photo: Premier Rachel Notley and MLA Colin Piquette at an event in Athabasca in 2017 (source: Facebook)

New Democratic Party MLA Colin Piquette announced in a post on Facebook this week that he will not be seeking re-election when the writ is dropped. Piquette has represented the Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater district since 2015 and had previously announced plans to seek re-election in the sprawling new Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock district.

Concerns about the change in electoral boundaries and the geographic size of the new district were a reason given for his decision against running in the expected spring election:

“As it stands now my present riding is “only” 13,000 sqr km in size and laid out on a north-south access to Edmonton making it possible to visit communities on my way back and forth to meetings in the city. The new riding come this spring will be almost double that size spread west to east. For perspective, this is about half the size of Nova Scotia and just a little smaller than Belgium. That’s a lot of territory for one person to have to cover on a regular basis. I made no secret of my concerns over the electoral boundary changes and the negative impact they would have on effective rural representation. But I always somehow expected that if they did come to pass I would find a way to overcome the challenges they posed and make it work. However, as the election has drawn closer and campaign preparations have begun in earnest I realize just how much serving these new boundaries would demand, and not only of me. I just can’t see how to do this without an unacceptable degree of sacrifice from my family.”

Piquette raised concerns about the boundary changes when they were debated in the Assembly in 2017 and he and West Yellowhead MLA Eric Rosendahl were the only NDP MLAs to vote against changes recommended by Alberta’s Electoral Boundaries Commission. The changes recommended by the commission significantly altered the boundaries of the electoral districts they represent.

A map of the new Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock district

A map of the new Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock district

Had he run for re-election, Piquette would have faced United Conservative Party MLA Glenn van Dijken, who was elected to represent Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock in 2015 and is standing for re-election in the new district. His decision not to seek re-election is not surprising. A path to a second term for Piquette, and most other rural NDP MLAs, would be extremely challenging as it is unlikely that this new district will be brimming with NDP voters in 2019. This is not a reflection on Piquette or his record as an MLA, but of the current prevailing political winds in rural Alberta.

Piquette is the former president of the Boyle District Chamber of Commerce and director with the Boyle and District Agricultural Society. He worked as a university instructor and an insurance agent representing the Cooperators in Athabasca and Boyle before his election.

Piquette is the 11th NDP MLA to announce plans not to seek re-election in 2019. A total of 19 MLAs are not seeking re-election.


Here are some of the latest updates to the list of candidates running in Alberta’s upcoming provincial election:

Kelly Mandryk NDP Calgary North

Kelly Mandryk

Kelly Mandryk was nominated as the NDP candidate in Calgary-North on February 4, 2019. Mandryk is a Senior Service Representative with Great West Life and is a former journalist and editor, having worked at the Barrhead Leader and Calgary Herald. 

Stephen Drover is seeking the NDP nomination in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo. Drover is a trustee with the Fort McMurray Public School Board and was the NDP candidate in this district in 2015, earning 30.42 percent of the vote. He is an oil sands operator and member of Unifor Local 707-A. The NDP have scheduled a nomination contest in this district on February 17, 2019.

Gulshan Akter is seeking the NDP nomination in Calgary-West. Akter is the managing director of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Education and President and CEO of the Peerless Training Institute, a government-accredited private career college in Calgary.

The NDP have scheduled candidate in Edmonton-Whitemud on February 7, 2019, and in Calgary-WestCypress-Medicine Hat, and Edmonton-South West on February 9, 2019. The UCP is holding nomination votes in Calgary-North and Lethbridge-East on February 9, 2019 (I hope to have updates about these two UCP contests posted tomorrow).

Jordan Stein defeated MLA Anam Kazim to secure the NDP nomination in Calgary-Glenmore.

NDP nominate 7 new candidates, Jordan Stein defeats MLA Anam Kazim in Calgary-Glenmore

Photo: Jordan Stein (pictured) defeated MLA Anam Kazim to secure the NDP nomination in Calgary-Glenmore. (photo source: @Jordan.Stein.Alberta on Instagram)

We are in the zone. As of February 1, 2019, Albertans are now living in the campaign period where an election can be called any day until May 31, 2019.

The New Democratic Party had a big nomination weekend, selecting candidates in 7 districts across the province. With candidates nominated in 52 districts, the NDP are now 35 candidates away from a full-slate in all 87 districts.

Anam Kazim NDP MLA Calgary Glenmore

Anam Kazim

In the southwest district of Calgary-GlenmoreJordan Stein defeated MLA Anam Kazim to win the NDP nomination. Stein is a former coffee shop owner, flight attendant with WestJet and employee engagement consultant with Air North.

Kazim was first elected in 2015 with a 6-vote margin of victory over Progressive Conservative MLA Linda Johnson. Kazim was one of 9 NDP candidates under the age of 30 to be elected in 2015.

Kazim is the second incumbent NDP MLA to lose a candidate nomination contest in this election cycle. MLA Marie Renaud defeated MLA Trevor Horne to secure the NDP nomination in St. Albert in December 2018.

Stein will face United Conservative Party candidate Whitney Issik, Alberta Party candidate Scott Appleby, and Green Party candidate Allie Tulick when the election is called.

Here are the six other NDP nominations that have been held over the past few days:

Airdrie-Cochrane: Steven Durrell was chosen as the party’s candidate in Airdrie-Cochrane. Durrell is a Telus dispatcher and trustee for the Telus Corporation pension plan. He has been a shop steward for the United Steelworkers. He was a target of UCP leader Jason Kenney this past weekend, as the conservative leader mocked Durrell for being a 19-year old. Durrell is a 29-year-old father of three.

Steven Durrell Airdrie Cochrane NDP election alberta

Steven Durrell

This new district north of Calgary includes areas currently part of the Airdrie, Banff-Cochrane, and Chestermere-Rockyview districts.

Calgary-Beddington: Amanda Chapman is a communications consultant and former communications coordinator with AIDS Awareness Calgary.

Calgary-Edgemont:  Julia Hayter was a constituency assistant to recently resigned Calgary-Varsity MLA Stephanie McLean. She was seeking the NDP nomination in McLean’s former district until Anne McGrath entered the contest and was chosen as her party’s candidate.

Calgary-Foothills: Sameena Arif is active with the Calgary Immigrant Women’s Association. A teacher who immigrated from Pakistan to Canada with her family in 2004, Arif’s story was highlighted in an article on one of the Government of Alberta’s official websites in 2012.

Calgary-Hays: Tory Tomblin is a primary care paramedic with Alberta Health Services and was a candidate for the Calgary Board of Education in Wards 12 & 14 in the 2017 election.

Julia Hayter NDP candidate Calgary Edgemont Alberta

Julia Hayter

Camrose: Morgan Bamford is the Acting Supervisor of Indigenous Relations with the City of Edmonton and is the co-founder of Bamford & Henbest Research and Consulting Partners Ltd. He is vice-president of the board of directors of Volunteer Alberta.

The NDP have scheduled candidate selection meetings in Calgary-North on February 4, 2019, in Edmonton-Whitemud on February 7, 2019, and in Calgary-West, Cypress-Medicine Hat, and Edmonton-South West on February 9, 2019.

The contested NDP nomination race between Melissa Byers and Todd Russell in Grande Prairie was initially scheduled to take place on February 3, 2019 but has been rescheduled to February 19, 2019. 

Alberta Advantage Party

The Wildrose Party-offshoot Alberta Advantage Party has nominated former Wolf Creek School Division trustee Paula Lamoureux as its candidate in Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre. This is considered one of the most conservative voting areas in Alberta and is currently represented by UCP MLA Jason Nixon

Marilyn Burns, the leader of the small right-wing party, will be holding a series of town hall meetings in Pincher Creek, Brooks, and Calgary in February 2019.

Freedom Conservative Party

Rick Northey Airdrie East Freedom Conservative Party election alberta

Rick Northey

Rick Northey has been nominated as the Freedom Conservative Party candidate in Airdrie-EastNorthey is the former president of the Airdrie UCP and Wildrose Party associations. He resigned from that UCP board in June 2018, saying he was unhappy with what he maintained was a secretive cash transfer of $16,000 from the local Wildrose Party association to the Alberta Fund political action committee in late 2017. Nothey accused UCP MLA Angela Pitt of “outright intimidation” in trying to get him to stop asking questions about it. He will now face Pitt in the provincial election.

Valerie Keefe has withdrawn plans to seek the FCP nomination in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood.

The FCP has opened nomination contests in Airdrie-Cochrane, Calgary-North West, Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, and Leduc-Beaumont.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

Premier Rachel Notley delivered a pre-campaign speech at a rally in downtown Calgary (photo credit: @SKGreer on Twitter)

Notley is the Alberta NDP’s strongest asset. Don’t expect to see ‘Team Kenney’ logos on UCP lawn signs.

Photo: Premier Rachel Notley delivered a pre-campaign speech at a rally in downtown Calgary today (photo credit: @SKGreer on Twitter)

As has been widely reported this week, the Alberta New Democratic Party has purposely shifted the focus of their political material onto their greatest asset, Premier Rachel Notley. The NDP began replacing the NDP logo with a Rachel Notley logo on their social media images back in April 2018, but the party recently highlighted this focus with the launch of their new RachelNotley.ca campaign website.

The move has been attacked by critics of the NDP, who claim the party is nefariously attempting to distance itself from its unpopular federal cousins. The NDP are probably trying to distance itself from the Jagmeet Singh-led federal NDP, but there is nothing nefarious about it. Campaigns always try to play to their strengths and downplay their weaknesses. This is why the NDP campaign will put Rachel Notley front-and-centre and the UCP will not be featuring Jason Kenney logos on their election lawn signs.

Putting the focus on party leaders is nothing new in Alberta politics.

A PC Party advertisement from the 1971 Alberta election.

In 1971, much of the Progressive Conservative Party’s advertising and messaging revolved around Peter Lougheed. The “Lougheed Team” focused on the party’s young and dynamic leader and the impressive slate of candidates that surrounded him.

While Alberta politics have certainly changed since the 1970s, Notley frequently evokes the memory of popular Lougheed in her media statements and campaign speeches.

Ralph’s Team’ was a slogan the PC Party used in the 1990s, putting the focus on their popular party leader, Ralph Klein. And the federal Liberal Party attempted a similar move when they placed ‘Team Martin’ logos on their campaign signs and material during the 2004 election.

As Postmedia columnist Keith Gerein wrote last week, the two main party leaders have divergent popularity among their parties own supporters. While her party is behind in the polls, Notley remains wildly popular among NDP voters.

United Conservative Party has a massive lead in the polls, but party leader Jason Kenney is much less popular than the party he now leads, which which is why Albertans will probably not spot any “Team Kenney” logos when the election is called this spring.

Almost all NDP MLA’s should know they have Notley’s leadership to thank for their electoral fortunes in the 2015 election, the same might not be said of UCP candidates and their leader in 2019. If the UCP’s strong support holds, many of that party’s candidate could be elected despite their leader’s lower approval ratings.

Any leader who’s popularity falls below that of the party they lead inevitably becomes vulnerable to leadership challenges and caucus revolts, as Don Getty, Ed Stelmach, Alison Redford, and in the dying days of his premiership, Ralph Klein, discovered. Conservatives in Alberta have been ruthless with their party leadership and rarely tolerate weaknesses that could jeopardize electoral success.

It is yet to be seen whether Kenney will fall into this category, which will probably depend on what the UCP caucus looks like after Election Day. If the UCP caucus is large, Kenney’s leadership could be secure. But as Stelmach and Klein discovered, large caucuses are impressive but can be unruly and difficult to manage. If he does fall into the traps sprung by previous Conservative premiers, look to UCP MLAs Jason Nixon, Nathan Cooper, Leela Aheer and former Wildrose leader Brian Jean to be eyeing the Premier’s chair.

Rachel Notley on the other hand might not be as vulnerable, even if the NDP is defeated in 2019. If her party does better than expected in 2019, even electing 25 or 30 MLAs, the NDP caucus and members may come to the conclusion that Notley remains their strongest asset and could be their best bet at returning to government in 2023. They could encourage her to remain party leader.

As an opposition leader, Notley would be fierce and lead an actual government-in-waiting, not something Albertans are used to having. It would also signal whether the NDP will remain in its centre-leftish position or embrace a more aggressive progressive agenda advocated by some members.

While Notley remaining in the party leadership beyond a 2019 loss may go against some of the common popular opinion about former premiers, past NDP premiers Allan Blakeney of Saskatchewan and Dave Barrett in British Columbia both led their parties into elections following defeats. Barrett even went on to have a career in federal politics and nearly became leader of the federal NDP in 1989.

I am probably getting ahead of myself, as this year’s election has not even been officially called, but scenarios like these are certainly something that many political watchers are thinking about.

Episode 27: When is Alberta’s next election? And will Don Iveson be the next Prime Minister of Canada?

In this episode of the Daveberta Podcast, we stare deep into our crystal ball to figure out when Premier Rachel Notley will call Alberta’s next election, dissect some of the key messages from the party leaders, discuss how the United Conservative Party reacted to the controversy over Jason Kenney’s residency, and muse about whether Edmonton mayor Don Iveson will be the next Prime Minister of Canada.

Don Iveson Edmonton Mayor Election

Don Iveson

Dave and Ryan also delve into the latest candidate nomination news, including a handful of new NDP contested races.  We also answered a long list of questions sent in by listeners on topics ranging from provincial sales taxes, battleground ridings, municipal infrastructure funding, and more.

The Daveberta Podcast is a member of the Alberta Podcast Network powered by ATB Financial.

You can listen and subscribe on Apple PodcastsGoogle PlayStitcher, or wherever you find podcasts online.

We always love to feedback from our listeners, so let us know what you think of this episode and leave a review where you download. You can also comment on the blogFacebook or Twitter or send us an email at podcast@daveberta.ca.

And a huge thanks to our producer, Adam Rozenhart, who keeps us on track and makes each episode of the Daveberta Podcast sound so great.

Thank you for listening!

Recommended reading/watching:

Big Nomination Update: Estefania Cortes-Vargas and Sandra Jansen not seeking re-election, and much, much more.

Today’s big nomination news is the announcements by two New Democratic Party MLAs, Strathcona-Sherwood Park MLA Estefania Cortes-Vargas and Calgary-North West MLA Sandra Jansen, that they will not seek re-election when the next general election is called.

Cortes-Vargas was first elected in 2015 and is one of the three first openly LGBTQ MLAs in the Alberta history. Cortes-Vargas is the current NDP caucus whip and announced on Facebook post an endorsement of crown prosecutor Moira Vane as the NDP candidate in the next election. 

“Our government has a strong record, I am proud to have worked alongside Premier Rachel Notley, someone I consider to have been an incredible mentor to me. It was her encouragement that brought me into politics, then saw me become one of the first of three openly LGBTQ+ MLAs, first of three Latin-American Canadians and the youngest government whip in Alberta’s history. I am appreciative of the work our government has done to continue to break the glass ceiling. It has always been my hope that it paves the way for more diverse voices to enter our political landscape.” – Estefania Cortes-Vargas, MLA for Strathcona-Sherwood Park

Jansen, who was previously elected as a Progressive Conservative MLA in 2012 and 2015, had announced in August 2018 that she would seek re-election in Calgary-North West as an NDP candidate. Jansen left the PC Party in 2016 and soon after joined the NDP caucus. She was appointed Minister of Infrastructure in October 2017. 

Cortes-Vargas and Jansen are the seventeenth and eighteenth Alberta MLAs to announce they will not seek re-election in 2019. As I have noted in the past, the number of MLA retirements during this election cycle is fairly average, with 19 MLAs not seeking re-election in 2015, 23 MLAs choosing to not run for re-election in 2012, and 20 MLAs not seeking re-election in 2008.

Alberta MLAs not seeking re-election in 2019

I was away for most of last week teaching at the Jasper Labour School organized by the Alberta Federation of Labour and the Canadian Labour Congress, so I was not able to publish a detailed update last week. Upon my return I was not surprised to discover the list of nomination updates has grown considerably.

I am planning to provide more frequent updates in the few months left before the next election is called in order to avoid these novel-length articles. So without further ado, here is the long-list of nomination updates:

Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul – Kari Whan is seeking the NDP nomination. Whan is a Grade 2 teacher at Cold Lake Elementary School.

Calgary-Acadia – Liberal Lorissa Good was nominated as the Liberal Party candidate on January 21, 2019. She is the Salon Coordinator with Swish Salon.

Calgary-Beddington – Heather Erlen will challenge Amanda Chapman for the NDP nomination in this north Calgary district.Erlen is the Alberta regional representative for the Canadian Labour Congress and is the former Team Lead for the Calgary Dream Centre Women’s Initiative. A candidate selection meeting is scheduled to take place on February 3, 2019.

Calgary-Cross – Ricardo Miranda was nominated as the NDP candidate. Miranda was first elected in 2015 and has served as Alberta’s Minister of Culture and Tourism since February 2016. Naser Al-Kukhun was nominated as the Liberal Party candidate on January 21, 2019.

Calgary-Foothills – Sameena Arif is seeking the NDP nomination. Arif is active with the Calgary Immigrant Women’s Association.

Calgary-Glenmore – Jordan Stein is seeking the NDP nomination in this southwest Calgary district. Glenmore is currently represented by NDP Anam Kazim. A candidate selection meeting is scheduled to take place on February 3, 2019.

Calgary-Hays – Tory Tomblin is seeking the NDP nomination. Tomblin is a primary care paramedic with Alberta Health Services and was a candidate for the Calgary Board of Education in Wards 12 & 14 in the 2017 election. A candidate selection meeting is scheduled to take place on February 2, 2019.

Calgary-North – Salima Haq was nominated as the Liberal Party candidate on January 7, 2019. Gary Arora was nominated as the Alberta Party candidate on January 13, 2019. Arora replaces previously nominated Alberta Party candidate Melanie Wen, who withdrew her candidacy in late 2018.

Calgary-Peigan – Joe Pimlott has been nominated as the NDP candidate in this east Calgary district. Pimlott is a community liaison with Metis Calgary Family Services and the former executive director of the Aboriginal Friendship Centre of Calgary and provincial vice-president of the Metis Nation of Alberta. 

Ron Reinhold has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate. Reinhold was the Liberal Party candidate in Calgary-Cross in the 2008 provincial election, where he earned 22.2 percent of the vote. He endorsed Dave Taylor in the Liberal Party’s 2008 leadership contest. 

Calgary-Shaw – John Daly was nominated as the Green Party candidate in this district on January 21, 2019.

Calgary-West – Frank Penkala has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate. Penkala previously sought the party’s nomination in the neighbouring Calgary-Bow district but was defeated by Paul Goddard in the nomination contest.

Drayton Valley-Devon – Ronald Brochu was nominated as the Liberal Party candidate on January 18, 2019. Brochu was the Liberal Party candidate in Edmonton-Gold Bar in the 2015 election, earning 3.1 percent of the vote.

Edmonton-Ellerlsie – Faton Bislimi is seeking the United Conservative Party nomination in this southeast Edmonton district. Bislimi is an Albanian activist and author from present-day Kosovo. According to his entry on Wikipedia, in 2007 he ran for mayor of Gnjilane, a city of 54,239 in southeast Kosovo. He is currently completing his PhD in Political Science at the University of Alberta. He received a master’s degree in public administration and international development from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government in 2007 and he worked as a lecturer of public policy and governance at the American University in Kosovo.

Chuck McKenna has withdrawn from the Alberta Party nomination in this southeast Edmonton district. Richard Corbin and former Liberal Party candidate Todd Ross will contest the nomination set for January 26, 2019. A candidate selection meeting has been scheduled for January 26, 2019.

Edmonton-Meadows – Chand Gul and MLA Denise Woollard are seeking the NDP nomination in this redrawn and renamed district in southeast Edmonton. Woollard was first elected in 2015 in the Edmonton-Mill Creek district.

Gul is the president of the Alberta Pashtoon Association and previously worked for the Edmonton Mennonite Centre for Newcomers through the organization’s Community Connector Immigrant Women’s Integration network. She is the former chair of the women’s wing of the Pakistan-Canada Association of Edmonton. She was previously the South Edmonton Regional director for the Alberta Liberal Party and a member of the federal Liberal Party’s board of directors in Edmonton-Mill Woods, but she appears to have recently joined the NDP and attended the party’s convention in October 2018.

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville – Jessica Littlewood was nominated as the NDP candidate in this district on January 20, 2019. Littlewood was first elected in 2015, earning 45 percent of the vote and unseating one-term Progressive Conservative MLA Jacquie Fenske. She has served as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Economic Development and Trade since October 2017 and was recently voted Up and Coming MLA to Watch in 2019 in the Daveberta Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Survey. 

Leduc-Beaumont – Robb Connelly was acclaimed as the Alberta Party candidate in this district following the withdrawal of Jan Becker and the party not accepting the candidacies of Tauras Pawluk and Coreina Hubert. Connelly previously sought the Alberta Party nomination in the neighbouring Strathcona-Sherwood Park district. 

Gil Poitras is the first candidate nominated by the Alberta Advantage Party in this election cycle. Poitras served as interim leader of new right-wing party in 2017, and previously served as Chief Financial Officer for the Alberta Party in 2013 and 2014, and as the president of the Alberta Party association in Leduc-Beaumont in 2015. He served on Beaumont town council from 2001 to 2004 and ran for mayor in in 2013 and 2017.

Lethbridge-West – Patricia Chizek was nominated as the Liberal Party candidate on January 7, 2019. 

Morinville-St. Albert – Neil Korotash defeated Wayne Rufiange to secure the Alberta Party nomination on January 19, 2019. Korotash teaches Biology and Urban Agriculture at Morinville Community High School and he sought the PC Party nomination in Spruce Grove-St. Albert ahead of the 2015 election. In 2001, Korotash became the youngest city councillor in St. Albert history when he was elected at age 21 in that year’s municipal elections.

Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills – Chase Brown has been nominated as the Alberta Party candidate in this central Alberta district. Brown studied business economics at the University of Alberta and has coached special Olympians in softball, curling, and floor hockey programs.

West Yellowhead – Zack Seizmagraff is seeking the Liberal Party nomination, which is scheduled to take place on January 25, 2019. Seizmagraff was the federal Liberal Party candidate in Yellowhead in the 2011 election, earning 2.87 percent of the vote. A candidate selection meeting has been scheduled for January 26, 2019.

The NDP have scheduled nomination meetings to be held in Calgary-West on February 6, 2019, Calgary-East on February 16, 2019, and in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche and Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo on February 17, 2019. The UCP have scheduled a nomination meeting in Lethbridge-East for February 9, 2019.

If you know any candidates who have announced their intentions to stand for party nominations, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com. I will add them to the list. Thank you!

Premier Rachel Notley announced on December 11, 2018 that the government is issuing a Request for Expression of Interest to determine business cases for investing in a new refinery in Alberta or tied to Alberta production. (photography by Chris Schwarz/Government of Alberta)

Episode 26: Bighorn Country, Oil Refineries, and the Best of Alberta Politics

Controversy over the Bighorn Country proposal and Premier Rachel Notley’s oil refinery announcement are where we started the discussion in this episode. Dave and Ryan also delved into the latest nomination news, the results of the Daveberta Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Survey, and answer a long list of questions sent in by the listeners of the pod.

The Daveberta Podcast is a member of the Alberta Podcast Network powered by ATB Financial.

You can listen and subscribe on Apple PodcastsGoogle PlayStitcher, or wherever you find podcasts online. We would love to hear what you think of this episode, so feel free to leave a positive review where you download, comment on the blogFacebook or Twitter or send us an email at podcast@daveberta.ca.

And a huge thanks to our producer, Adam Rozenhart, who keeps us on track and makes each episode of the Daveberta Podcast sound so great.

Thank you for listening!

(Photo by Chris Schwarz/Government of Alberta)

Premier Rachel Notley and Wetaskiwin-Camrose MLA Bruce Hinkley and his wife Janet (source: Facebook)

MLA Bruce Hinkley seeks re-election in Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin, Brian Pincott withdraws NDP candidacy in Calgary-Acadia

Here are the latest updates to the list of nomination candidates running in Alberta’s next provincial election, which is expected to be held between March 1, 2019 and May 31, 2019:

Wetaskiwin-Camrose MLA Bruce Hinkley is seeking the New Democratic Party nomination in the new Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin district. A retired teacher, Hinkley was first elected in 2015 and is a veteran NDP candidate, having run for the party in Wetaskiwin-Leduc in 1989, and his current district in 1993, 2012 and 2015, and for the party leadership in 1994. He was a candidate for the short-lived Forum Party of Alberta in Wetaskiwin-Camrose in the 1997 election.

Hinkley was elected in 2015 with 43.7 percent of the vote, defeating two-term Progressive Conservative MLA and Minister of Agriculture Verlyn Olson by 1,578 votes. A nomination meeting has been scheduled in Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin for January 8, 2018.

Morgan Bamford is seeking the NDP nomination in the new Camrose district, which includes the eastern portions of the Wetaskiwin-Camrose district. A nomination meeting in this district is scheduled to take place on February 2, 2019.

Brian Pincott NDP Calgary Acadia

Brian Pincott

– Former city councillor Brian Pincott has withdrawn his candidacy for the NDP in Calgary-Acadia. Pincott wrote on Facebook that he is withdrawing because of his struggles with depression and concerns with his own mental health in the upcoming campaign.

Pincott served on Calgary City Council from 2007 to 2017 and was nominated as a the NDP candidate in this district on October 25, 2018 and was seen as a star candidate to replace outgoing NDP MLA Brandy Payne.

He ran as the NDP candidate against Jason Kenney in Calgary-Southeast in the 2004 federal election and against Lee Richardson in Calgary-Centre in the 2006 federal election.

– Former St. Albert city councillor Neil Korotash is seeking the Alberta Party nomination in the new Moriville-St. Albert district. Korotash teaches Biology and Urban Agriculture at Morinville Community High School and he sought the PC Party nomination in Spruce Grove-St. Albert ahead of the 2015 election. In 2001, Korotash became the youngest city councillor in St. Albert history when he was elected at age 21 in that year’s municipal elections.

Korotash will be challenged for the Alberta Party nomination by Wayne Rufiange, the principal of R.F. Staples Secondary School in Westlock. Rufiange is the former principal of the Morinville Public School and previously worked as a vice-principal at various schools in the Sturgeon Public School Division.

The Alberta Party has scheduled a nomination meeting in Morinville-St. Albert for January 19, 2019.

– Tariq Chaudhry has withdrawn from the United Conservative Party nomination contest in Edmonton-Mill Woods and is claiming in an affidavit that Jason Kenney and the UCP cost him more than $25,000. Chaudhry claims Kenney encouraged him to run and asked him to sign up and pay for the $10-membership fee for 1,200 new members. Chaudhry claims he spent $6,000 on memberships and that Kenney’s campaign asked him to organize Eid Mubarak events in 2017 and 2018, on which he spent $20,000, “so Mr. Kenney could be seen speaking to the Edmonton Muslim Community.” Chaudhry is the owner of the Maharaja Banquet Hall.

Chris Alders has been nominated as the Green Party candidate in Edmonton-City Centre. Alders is a long-time Green Party organizer and ran for the Nova Scotia Green Party in the 2006 and 2009 provincial elections in that province.

Will Carnegie is seeking the Green Party nomination in Calgary-East. Carnegie is the president of the Forest Lawn Community Association.

– The NDP have now scheduled 20 nomination meetings in January and February, in what is expected to be a flurry of candidacy selection activity ahead of the next election. Along with the 15 meetings mentioned in my previous update, meetings will be held in Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, Calgary-Edgemont and Calgary-Hays on February 2, 2019, and in Calgary-Beddington and Calgary-Glenmore on Feb. 3, 2019.

– The UCP have nominated candidates in 79 of Alberta’s 87 electoral districts. The eight remaining nomination contests to be held for the UCP will take place in Calgary-North, Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood, Edmonton-Meadows, Edmonton-Mill Woods, Edmonton-Strathcona, Lethridge-East, and Red Deer-South. Dates for these nomination meetings have not yet been scheduled.


McLean resigns as MLA 

Stephanie McLean

Stephanie McLean

Former cabinet minister Stephanie McLean has resigned as the NDP MLA for Calgary-Varsity. McLean resignation takes place less than two months before Alberta’s fixed election period begins on March 1, 2019. McLean was appointed to cabinet as Minister of Service Alberta in February 2016 and removed from cabinet in June 2018 following her announcement that she did would not run for re-election in 2019.

McLean’s resignation comes as no surprise as it has been rumoured for months that  she was unhappy about her current status in the NDP caucus and looking for leave politics before the next election. McLean did not attend the session of the Legislative Assembly in fall 2018.

McLean was first elected in 2015, securing 43.9 percent of the vote. Long-time NDP stalwart Anne McGrath has been nominated to run for the in this district when the next election is called.

Photo: Premier Rachel Notley, Janet Hinkley, and Wetaskiwin-Camrose MLA Bruce Hinkley (source: Facebook)

Episode 25: We answer your Alberta Politics questions

We asked listeners to send us their Alberta politics questions and we dedicated our final episode of 2018 to answering them!

We kicked off this episode with a game of “is it more likely,” where we discuss different potential scenarios in Alberta politics in 2019 and then we dove into the mailbag to answer questions on topics including Alberta separatism, political polarization and public policy, the state of opinion in the mainstream media, and whether Twitter is an effective way to discuss politics.

As this is our last episode of 2018, our first season, we want to thank everyone who has listened, downloaded and subscribed to the Daveberta Podcast over the past year. We also want to thank all of our special guest co-hosts who joined us on the podcast in 2018 – Kyla Fisher, Lianne Bell, Janelle Morin, Kate Kerber, Erika Barootes, Janis Irwin, Natasha Soles, Jamil Jivani and Kristin Raworth– we loved having you on the pod!

We really appreciate all of your feedback and and questions and we are looking forward to recording new episodes with some great guests in 2019. With a provincial and federal election expected within the next 10 months, it will be a busy year ahead!

And as always, we owe a huge thanks to our producer, Adam Rozenhart, who keeps us on track and makes each episode of the Daveberta Podcast sound so great.

Thank you for listening. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!


The Daveberta Podcast is a member of the Alberta Podcast Network powered by ATB Financial.

You can listen and subscribe on Apple PodcastsGoogle PlayStitcher, or wherever you find podcasts online. We would love to hear what you think of this episode, so feel free to leave a review where you download, comment on the blogFacebook or Twitter or send us an email at podcast@daveberta.ca.

Alberta Separatism is the political equivalent of a toddler’s temper tantrum. It’s embarrassing and a bad idea.

Reading the pages of the Postmedia newspapers or the #ableg hashtag on Twitter you might believe that Albertans from roughneck Fort McMurray to trendy Kensington are calling for Independence and rising up in arms against their political overlords in Ottawa. 

Nope.

A flurry of recent opinion-editorials and columns in the pages of Canada’s Postmedia newspapers have been fanning the flames of discontent and frustration in Alberta. The discontent and perennial alienation from Ottawa is mostly a result of the economic slump and a delay in the expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, but it is difficult to believe that there is any real appetite for Albertans to leave Canada, and the consequences that would follow.

University of Calgary economist Jack Mintz wrote in the Financial Post newspapers this week that an “Albexit” could draw inspiration from the United Kingdom’s disastrous “Brexit” from the European Union. Mintz drew inspiration from another European dumpster fire in 2015 when he penned another cringeworthy Financial Post op-ed predicting that “Alberta is not yet Greece, but it’s heading along that path.”

Three years later, Alberta is not Greece and probably should not be looking to Brexit for inspiration.

The arguments for Alberta’s separation from Canada are so weak and the concept of forming an Alberta Republic is so ridiculous that even the thought of writing this article made me cringe. It is the political equivalent of a toddler’s temper tantrum. But because I am a sucker for punishment, here I go.

Among the many of the disastrous consequences of Alberta leaving Canada would be that it would become virtually impossible to get any new pipelines constructed to the deep water ports that pipeline proponents argue the province’s oil industry needs. 

If you believe it has already been acrimonious to get the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion built in two provinces, just imagine how difficult it would be to negotiate a pipeline project with a suddenly hostile foreign government, whether it be the prime minister of Canada in Ottawa or the president of the Pacific Republic of British Columbia in Victoria. Not to mention the inconvenient fact that the Government of Canada actually owns said pipeline and its expansion project.

Some will argue that the United States of America would open its borders to Alberta or even welcome it as the 51st State, but it seems unlikely that the American government would want to antagonize Ottawa by dealing with a landlocked rogue nation and cause trouble on it’s northern borders.

American corporations already dominate our economy, which saves the US government the messy business of having to govern us. And the likelihood that most Albertans would be inclined to vote for the Democratic Party would also make the statehood route less appealing for many in America’s political establishment.

The Canadian Government saved Trans Mountain by purchasing the pipeline and the expansion project just as Texas-based Kinder Morgan Inc. was preparing to withdraw their application for expansion. The government of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau paid $4.5 billion for the pipeline and project, and it is expected Ottawa could spend another $7 billion on the project after it meets the necessary conditions set by the Federal Court of Appeal. 

The Federal Court of Appeal ordered a stop to the project in August 2018 after the National Energy Board and federal government failed to conduct a proper environmental impact assessment of the increase of marine traffic and failed to properly consult First Nations communities along the route in the final phase of the approval process. 

While Trudeau clearly sees the pipeline expansion as a national priority worth spending serious political and real financial capital on, it is unlikely to bring him positive electoral returns in Alberta in 2019. Despite purchasing the pipeline, ensuring it will be built, and announcing $1.6 billion in loans and financial support to the oil and gas industry, support for Trudeau in Alberta has dropped like a lead balloon.

We didn’t ask for the opportunity to go further into debt as a means of addressing this problem,” Alberta Premier Rachel Notley said in response to the federal government’s bailout package.

It is unclear what Alberta’s politicians want to be done in the meantime. Many are calling the pipeline the only solution to Alberta’s economic problems. The big problem with that argument, if you believe pipelines are the solution, is that even if the Trans Mountain expansion project meets the conditions set by the Federal Court of Appeal in 2019 it might not actually be finished construction until 2022 or 2023. And even if other failed pipeline projects are resurrected, they might take even longer to complete.

That a Prime Minister named Trudeau is not popular in Alberta is no shock. The ingrained hatred for Trudeau and his father in the minds of many Albertans ensures that no matter what the Liberal government in Ottawa does to support our province, it will be seen as either a failure or a hostile attack.

While separatist sentiments bubble up in Alberta politics every decade or so, the last serious political push happened more than 35 years ago, when Western Canada Concept candidate Gordon Kesler won a February 17, 1982 by-election in the former Social Credit fortress of Olds-Didsbury.

The separatist MLA said at his swearing-in ceremony that he had “a lot of responsibility to those who believe in freedom and free enterprise,” but then spent the next few months in the Assembly railing against the metric system and official bilingualism. He and his party were crushed by Peter Lougheed’s Progressive Conservative juggernaut in the November 1982 general election.

Other separatist parties have come and gone since, but they have all faded in the right-wing fringes of Alberta politics.

And with provincial and federal general elections expected to be held in the next 10 months, Conservative Party leader Jason Kenney and federal opposition leader Andrew Scheer are only too happy to stoke the flames or western alienation and resentment over pipelines, equalization payments, and new energy regulations included in Bill C-69: An Act to enact the Impact Assessment Act and the Canadian Energy Regulator Act, to amend the Navigation Protection Act and to make consequential amendments to other Acts.

Meanwhile, outside of the margins of conservative opinion writers and anonymous twitter accounts, two recent polls show that while Albertans might be a little angrier, support for separation remains consistently low.

A recent poll conducted by the research company Ipsos found that “Albertans are a little angrier at the moment, but across the west there is little interest in separation and most measures of connection to Canada are consistent with prior polls taken conducted as long ago as 1997.

The level of support for the idea of an independent Alberta is roughly the same as it was in surveys conducted in 2014 and 2016,” said Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Four years ago, with a Progressive Conservative government in Edmonton and a Conservative government in Ottawa, the findings were similar to what is observed in 2018.”

The vast majority of Albertans remain proud Canadians regardless of which party has been elected to run the government in Ottawa. The frustration felt by many Albertans towards Ottawa over pipelines construction delays and the low international price of oil should not be ignored, but let’s not pretend that separating from Canada is a viable solution to our economic problems, because it’s not.

Daveberta Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Survey Winners: Rachel Notley, Greg Clark, Shaye Anderson, Jessica Littlewood, and Janis Irwin

The Winners of the Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Survey

With more than 2,100 votes cast in two rounds of voting, we are proud to announce the results of the Daveberta Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Survey. Over the past two weeks, more than 2,100 readers of this website and listeners of the Daveberta Podcast submitted their choices for the survey and voted for the top submissions in each category.

Here are the winners in the Daveberta Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Survey:

Best Alberta MLA of 2018: Rachel Notley, Premier of Alberta and NDP MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona

For a second year in a row, Rachel Notley was vote Best Alberta MLA. Notley earned 50.7% of the total votes cast, placing her ahead of Leduc-Beaumont NDP MLA Shaye Anderson, with 25.5 percent, and Calgary-Elbow Alberta Party MLA Greg Clark, with 23.7 percent.

Best Cabinet Minister of 2018: Shaye Anderson, Minister of Municipal Affairs

In a four-way contest, Shaye Anderson edged ahead with 31.8 percent. Health Minister and Deputy Premier Sarah Hoffman earned 26.4 percent, Children’s Services Minister Danielle Larivee earned 21.5 percent, and Education Minister David Eggen, last year’s winner, earned 20.1 percent of the total votes cast.

Best Opposition MLA of 2018: Greg Clark, Alberta Party MLA for Calgary-Elbow

For a second year in a row, Greg Clark has been voted Alberta’s Best Opposition MLA. With 54.1 percent of the vote, Clark placed ahead of Freedom Conservative Party leader and Strathmore-BrooksMLA Derek Fildebrandt, with 34.4 percent, and United Conservative Party leader and Calgary-Lougheed MLA Jason Kenney, with 11.4 percent.

Up and coming MLA to watch in 2019: Jessica Littlewood, NDP MLA for Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville

Jessica Littlewood, the NDP MLA for Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, won with category with 42.3 percent of the vote. Littlewood beat out last year’s winner, Edmonton-Centre NDP MLA David Shepherd, with 37.1 percent, and Fort McMurray-Conklin UCP MLA Laila Goodridge with 20.5 percent.

New candidate to watch in the 2019 election: Janis Irwin, NDP candidate in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood

This was a new category we introduced this year to recognize some of the new candidates running in next year’s expected provincial general election. Janis Irwin, the NDP candidate in Edmonton-Highlands Norwood, won in this category with 45.9 percent of the vote. Irwin was followed by Calgary-Elbow NDP candidate Janet Eremenko with 29.6 percent and Calgary-Varsity NDP candidate Anne McGrath with 24.4 percent.

Congratulations to the winners and thank you to everyone who submitted your choices and who voted in this year’s Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Survey.


Daveberta Podcast back on Christmas Eve

Tune in on December 24, 2018 for a special episode of the Daveberta Podcast where we answer questions we have collected from listeners over the past few weeks. Listen and subscribe on Apple PodcastsGoogle Play, or wherever you find podcasts online.

We’d love to hear what you think of the Daveberta Podcast, so feel free to leave a positive review and share the podcast with your friends and family. Also feel free to leave a comment on this blog, Facebook or Twitter or send us an email at podcast@daveberta.ca.

Photo: Rachel Notley, Greg Clark, Shaye Anderson, Jessica Littlewood, and Janis Irwin

Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Greg Clark Sarah Hoffman Laila Goodridge Shaye Anderson

Daveberta Best of Alberta Politics 2018 – Vote for the Top 3

In our most recent episode of The Daveberta Podcast, Dave and Ryan asked you to vote in the Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Survey.

More than 500 of you responded to the survey over the last week with your choices for the biggest political players and defining political issues of 2018. We tallied all the responses from that survey and we are now asking you to vote on the top 3 choices in each category.

The top three choices in each category are now open for you to vote on until 12:00 p.m. on Wednesday, December 19, 2018 and the winners will be announced on Thursday, December 20, 2018.

Here are the top 3 contenders who you can vote for in Round 2 of the Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Survey:

Who was the best Alberta MLA of 2018? –Vote

  • Premier Rachel Notley, NDP MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona
  • Greg Clark, Alberta Party MLA for Calgary-Elbow
  • Shaye Anderson, NDP MLA for Leduc-Beaumont

An honourable mention to Danielle Larivee, NDP MLA for Lesser Slave Lake, and Jason Kenney, UCP leader and MLA for Calgary-Lougheed, who placed a strong fourth and fifth in total submissions. Notley was last year’s winner in this category.

Who was the best Alberta cabinet minister of 2018? – Vote

  • Sarah Hoffman, Deputy Premier and Minister of Health and Seniors
  • Shaye Anderson, Minister of Municipal Affairs
  • David Eggen, Minister of Education
  • Danielle Larivee, Minister of Children’s Services and Minster of Status of Women 

Ministers David Eggen and Danielle Larivee were tied for third place, so they are both included in the voting round in this category. Eggen was last year’s winner in this category.

Who was the Best Opposition MLA for 2018? – Vote

  • Greg Clark, Alberta Party MLA for Calgary-Elbow
  • Jason Kenney, UCP leader and MLA for Calgary-Lougheed
  • Derek Fildebrandt, Freedom Conservative Party MLA for Strathmore-Brooks

Honourable mentions to Richard Starke, the Independent PC MLA for Vermilion-Lloydminster, and David Swann, the Liberal MLA for Calgary-Mountain View, who placed a strong fourth and fifth place. Clark was last year’s winner in this category.

Who is the up and coming MLA in 2019? – Vote

  • Jessica Littlewood, NDP MLA for Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
  • Laila Goodridge, UCP MLA for Fort McMurray-Conklin
  • David Shepherd, NDP MLA for Edmonton-Centre

An honourable mention to Nathan Cooper, UCP MLA for Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, who placed a strong fourth in the first round of voting. Shepherd was last year’s winner in this category.

Who is the new candidate to watch in the 2019 election? – Vote

  • Janis Irwin, NDP candidate in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood
  • Janet Eremenko, NDP candidate in Calgary-Elbow
  • Anne McGrath, NDP candidate in Calgary-Varsity

What was the biggest political issue in 2018 in Alberta politics? – Voting Closed

Not surprisingly, pipelines, oil, and the economy were by far the biggest political issue identified in this survey. More than 85 percent of you chose these as the biggest political issue in 2018 in Alberta.

What was the biggest political play of 2018 in Alberta politics? – Voting Closed

This category was a dog’s breakfast. Around 90 percent of the submissions were related in some way to pipelines and the oil industry, but most were difficult to group. Around 30 percent of you chose Premier Notley’s decision to curtail the production of oil as the Best Political Play of 2018, which was the clearest single choice in this category. The wide variety of submissions makes it difficult to choose any top three choices for this round of voting, so I am calling it a draw.

Photo: Greg Clark, Sarah Hoffman, Laila Goodridge, and Shaye Anderson.

Episode 24: Oil, Pipelines and Alberta’s next election.

The First Minister’s Meeting, oil prices, and Premier Rachel Notley’s performance on the national stage are where we started the discussion in this episode. Dave and Ryan also delved into the latest nomination news and what 2019 holds for Alberta politics, including when the next provincial and federal elections could be called.

We also discuss our choices for the Daveberta Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Survey. Submissions will close on December 12, 2018 at 12:00pm and the top three choices in each category will be included in a round of voting starting on December 13, 2018. Voting will be open until December 19 and the winners will be announced on December 20, 2018.

The Daveberta Podcast is a member of the Alberta Podcast Network powered by ATB Financial.

You can listen and subscribe on Apple PodcastsGoogle PlayStitcher, or wherever you find podcasts online. We would love to hear what you think of this episode, so feel free to leave a positive review where you download, comment on the blogFacebook or Twitter or send us an email at podcast@daveberta.ca.

Thanks to everyone who sent us questions for this episode. We had so many great questions that we have recorded a special episode dedicated to answering your questions that will be published for your listening pleasure on December 24, 2018.

And a huge thanks to our producer, Adam Rozenhart, who keeps us on track and makes each episode of the Daveberta Podcast sound so great.

Thank you for listening!

Recommended Reading/Listening:

Premier Rachel Notley rallies her NDP Caucus MLAs before the start of the fall legislative sitting on Oct. 30, 2017. (photo by Chris Schwarz/Government of Alberta Flickr)

When is Alberta Election 2019? What We Know versus Speculation

What we know:

The last provincial General Election was held 3 years, 7 months, 2 days ago on May 5, 2015.

According to Section 38.1(2) of the Elections Act, a general election should be held between March 1 and May 31, and in the same three-month period in the fourth calendar year thereafter. This means that the next general election will likely be held between March 1 and May 31, 2019. This fixed election period was introduced in the Election Amendment Act passed on December 6, 2011.

Election campaign periods in Alberta last 28 days. Section 39 (d) of the Election Act states: “the 28th day after the date of the writ is the day on which voting is to take place, or if the 28th day is a holiday, the next following day not being a holiday.” There are a number of statutory and religious holidays that fall in this fixed election period when an election day would not be held: Good Friday is April 19, Easter Monday is April 22, and Victoria Day is May 20.

In accordance with our parliamentary system of government, the Elections Act also states that nothing in the law “affects the powers of the Lieutenant Governor, including the power to dissolve the Legislature, in Her Majesty’s name, when the Lieutenant Governor sees fit.” This means that Lieutenant Governor Lois Mitchell could issue a writ of election and dissolve the Legislative Assembly whenever she is asked to do so by Premier Rachel Notley. It would be highly irregular for a Lieutenant Governor to deny a Premier’s wish to issue a writ of election.

Speculation:

There are a number of factors that could impact when exactly the election is called.

One major indicator of a party’s readiness for an election is the number of candidates they have nominated. As of today, the New Democratic Party has nominated 31 candidates in 87 districts, meaning that party will need to nominate a majority of its candidates in the first few months of 2019 in order to be prepared for a spring election. The United Conservative Party currently has nominated 74 candidates in 87 districts and will have almost an entire slate of candidates nominated by the end of 2018.

Whether the NDP will recall the Legislative Assembly in the spring of 2019 to present a Throne Speech and introduce a budget before calling an election is unknown at this point. The recent session of the Assembly, which ended on Thursday, December 6, 2018, is widely considered to be the last session in which a serious legislative agenda would be implemented. But it is not uncommon for governments to call an election immediately after tabling or passing a budget, and then using that budget as a de-facto campaign platform. 

In 2015, Premier Jim Prentice called an election twelve days after a 16 days session which ended with the tabling of a provincial budget. And Premier Alison Redford called the election five days after the MLAs voted to approve that year’s provincial budget.

Tabling a provincial budget before calling an election could be a double-edge sword for the NDP in 2019.

Using a budget as its re-election platform would allow the Notley government to highlight its continued investments in health care, education, and public transportation like Calgary’s Green Line and Edmonton’s west LRT expansion, and contrast its plan with the expected slash and burn budgets that would be introduced under a UCP government led by Jason Kenney. But unless there is a big change in Alberta’s economic situation (and the international price of oil), any budget presented by the NDP in 2019 would likely have a significant deficit. While both the NDP and UCP have said they would plan to run budget deficits for the next few years, it would draw unwanted attention to an issue that is not seen as the NDP’s strength.

But whether or not a budget is tabled before the election, Finance Minister Joe Ceci is still required by the Fiscal Planning and Transparency Act to publicly release a Fiscal Update and Economic Statement on or before February 28, 2019.

Elections Alberta will release the first quarter financial disclosures of fundraising by Alberta’s political parties in mid-April 2019. And if the UCP continues dominating in the fundraising field, the NDP may want to avoid a round of news coverage about how they have been out-fundraised by its main conservative opponent.

A shrewd calculation related to when the election is held could be related to when voters of certain demographics are likely to be in Alberta and have easy access of voting stations. Calling an early election could limit the ability of vacationing snowbirds to cast their ballots in the election. Polls have suggested that the UCP has a considerable lead over the NDP among voters over the age of 65. 

On the other end of the demographic spectrum, calling an early election in 2019 would ensure that university and college campuses are in session when the election is held. Polls suggest that the NDP have stronger support among younger and university educated voters. Mobilizing the student vote could make a difference in a number of electoral districts currently represented by the NDP, including Calgary-Currie, Calgary-Mountain View, Calgary-Varsity, Edmonton-Centre, Edmonton-Riverview, and Lethbridge-West.

Delay the election to late 2019 or early 2020?

Notley said publicly in 2017 that she intends to follow both the spirit and letter of Alberta’s fixed-election-date legislation. But as we all know, circumstances sometimes change in politics. 

There might be a backlash of public opinion, like the Progressive Conservative government faced when it called an election one year early in 2015, but the NDP do have the ability to wait until Spring 2020 to call the next provincial election. Alberta’s Election Act fixes the period to every four years, but the Charter of Rights and Freedoms says otherwise. 

According to Section 4. (1) of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, “No House of Commons and no legislative assembly shall continue for longer than five years from the date fixed for the return of the writs at a general election of its members.

The decision to delay the next general election beyond Spring 2019 could have drastic electoral consequences for the NDP, but if the party already sees its chances of re-election as slim, as most polls suggest, it might be convinced to take the gamble. Waiting until late 2019 or early 2020 could mean the election could be held after the start of construction of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion and as the economy continues to recover from the drop in the international price of oil in 2014.

Delaying until 2020 would also give Notley an opportunity to campaign against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the expected October 2019 federal election. This would give Notley an opportunity to create some distance between herself and Trudeau, who had allies on the climate change file before their political relationship broke down over the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion delays.

Delaying the election would have unclear consequences for Third Party Election Advertisers.

The Election Finances and Contributions Disclosure Act currently states these groups, commonly known as Political Action Committees, are limited to spending $150,000 province-wide on election-related advertising between December 1 in the year before an election and election day. This legislation was passed under the assumption that the fixed-election period would be honoured. If the election is delayed until past spring 2019 and the post-December 1 limits continue to be implemented, the ability of PACs to advertise during the election would be severely limited.


Today on 630CHED I joined Ryan Jespersen, Catherine Griwkowsky, and John Brennan to talk about the latest news in Alberta politics, including when the next election might be held.

Ryan Hastman, Rachel Notley and Dave Cournoyer (photography by Chris Schwarz/Government of Alberta)

Vote in the Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Survey

Photo: Ryan Hastman, Rachel Notley and Dave Cournoyer. With more than 1,200 votes cast, Premier Rachel Notley was chosen as the Best Alberta MLA of 2017 in the Best of Alberta Politics 2017 survey. (photography by Chris Schwarz/Government of Alberta)

Back by popular demand, the Daveberta Podcast is pleased to launch the Best of Alberta Politics 2018 survey. We want to hear from you about the big political players and issues of 2018. Submit your choices for the seven categories below.

Here are the categories for the Best of Alberta Politics 2018 Survey:

  • Who was the best Alberta MLA of 2018?
  • What was the political issue of 2018?
  • What was the biggest political play of 2018?
  • Who was the best Alberta cabinet minister of 2018?
  • Who was the best opposition critic of 2018?
  • Who is the up and coming MLA to watch in 2019?
  • Who is the new candidate to watch in the 2019 election?

Submissions will close on December 12, 2018 at 12:00pm and the top three choices in each category will be included in a round of voting starting on December 13, 2018. Voting will be open until December 19 and the winners will be announced on December 20, 2018.


Listen and subscribe to the Daveberta Podcast on Apple PodcastsGoogle PlayStitcher, or wherever you find podcasts online. 

Read about last year’s winners: Greg Clark, David Shepherd, David Eggen, Premier Rachel Notley, and the formation of the United Conservative Party.