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Alberta Politics

Stop saying that Alberta doesn’t matter in this federal election

Alberta doesn’t matter’ is a comment I have heard frequently during this federal election campaign. Alberta does matter in this election, but not for all the most obvious reasons.

With the Conservative Party in a position to once again sweep Alberta, it is no surprise that the party leaders and parties are not spending much time or resources in the country’s fourth largest province.

This lack of electoral competitiveness, partly a result of Albertans’ historical choice to vote loyally for the Conservative Party and partly a result of the first-past-the-post electoral system, means that there is little incentive for the other parties to direct many resources or attention our way during federal elections.

Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau swung through Alberta on the first day of the election for a rally in Edmonton-Strathcona. Andrew Scheer stopped in Alberta twice, once for a campaign event in Calgary-Skyview and a second-time to share the stage with Premier Jason Kenney at a rally in Edmonton-Centre. Green Party leader Elizabeth May attended a climate change “die-in” in Calgary at the beginning of the campaign. And New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh was pressing the flesh with Heather McPherson at the Fringe Festival in Edmonton-Strathcona a few weeks before the election was called.

As a politically astute friend of mine pointed out, by time she leaves Edmonton after tomorrow’s climate strike at the Legislature, 16-year old Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg will have spent more time in Alberta during this election than any of the federal party leaders.

But while the vast majority of ridings in this province will likely elect Conservative candidates on October 21, it is a stretch to say Alberta doesn’t matter. On a national level, Alberta politicians could play a big part in whichever party forms government.

Scenario A: Conservatives form government

If the Conservatives form government in Ottawa, more than 30 Alberta MPs will make up a significant block of the government caucus. Conservative MPs such as Michelle Rempel, Chris Warkentin, Stephanie Kusie, and Shannon Stubbs could play prominent roles in a potential Scheer cabinet.

Kenney, along with Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, will play prominent political roles as key supporters of Scheer in the national Conservative movement. The mood among United Conservative Party MLAs would likely be incredibly jubilant for the remainder of this fall session of the Alberta Legislature.

Efforts will also be made to remove the national carbon tax and climate change initiatives but opposition from Quebec Premier François Legault would likely stall any plans to create a National Energy Corridor for future pipeline projects.

Scenario B: Liberals form government

If the Liberals form government, then any Liberal MPs elected from Alberta would almost certainly be appointed to cabinet. If the Liberals form government without any MPs from Alberta, which was the case from 1972 to 1977 and 1979 to 1984, there would need to be some serious creative thinking about how our province could be best represented in the federal government.

Kenney would likely continue his national campaign against Trudeau and could be widely touted as a potential successor to Scheer, which could kickoff a Conservative leadership race before a future federal election and a UCP leadership race in Alberta.

The UCP government would continue to oppose the federal carbon tax and climate change programs implemented by the federal Liberals. Kenney has also pledged to hold a province-wide referendum on reopening negotiations for the national equalization formula if the Liberals form government, a vote that would be held on the same day as the 2021 municipal elections.

Operating as a provincial-wing of the Conservative Party of Canada, the UCP would likely continue to scramble its MLAs and cabinet ministers across the province and country campaigning with Conservative candidates in vote-rich areas in Ontario and Quebec. The UCP would likely print another round of anti-Trudeau bumper stickers for its supporters to slap on the back of their trucks or cars.

It would be very difficult to imagine Alberta’s UCP government having a productive working relationship with a re-elected Liberal government in Ottawa.

Scenario C: The NDP form government

Maybe one of the more unlikely scenarios in this election, but if Singh leads the NDP to win this election, or if the NDP holds the balance of power in a minority parliament, then every MP, including one from Alberta, could play a big role in the next parliament.

It is difficult to explain the level of political insanity an NDP government in Ottawa would cause in the halls of the Alberta Legislature – in both the UCP and Alberta NDP caucuses. 

The Pipeline and Climate Change

No look at Canadian politics in 2019 is complete without mentioning the pipeline. Almost every realistic scenario in this federal election has the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion project being constructed, as it is supported by both the Liberals and Conservatives.

The Trudeau government spent a significant amount of political and real financial capital when it purchased the pipeline project before Texas-based Kinder Morgan Inc. was about to shut it down, but there is no sign of any electoral payoff because of it for the Liberals in Alberta.

The lack of electoral payoff for such a significant investment does not provide much political incentive for future federal governments to make large investments in Alberta’s fossil fuel infrastructure.

The oil pipeline has become a symbol of political frustration in Alberta. Western alienation is a permanent feature of Alberta politics and it tends to ebb and flow depending on which party has formed government in Ottawa. Frustration caused by the decline of the international price of oil in 2014 is real, emotionally driven, and increasingly drawn along partisan lines.

There is a distinct feeling of a lack of urgency about dealing with climate change in Alberta that sets us apart from much of the rest of Canada. Not only do we risk becoming increasingly isolated on the national and international stage, but if our own provincial leaders continue to demonstrate they do not take climate change seriously we risk having solutions imposed on us.

In a House of Commons dominated by Liberal, NDP, Green and Bloc Quebecois MPs who were elected on platforms that prominently featured climate change policies, it is hard to imagine that Alberta will not matter.

Alberta matters a lot in this election, and we are probably going to matter a lot more after the October 21 election, whether we like it or not.

Categories
Alberta Politics

7 City Council races to watch in Edmonton

With most attention focused on Edmonton’s mayoral election, it is important to remember there are a number of contest for City Council that could produce interesting results on election day. There are seven Wards that I will be keeping a close watch on when voting ends on October 21.

Andrew Knack Edmonton Ward 1
Andrew Knack

Ward 1
After three-terms, councillor Linda Sloan  announced only weeks before the nomination day that she would not seek re-election. This must have been a big surprise to her lone-challenger Andrew Knack, who had already been campaigning for months. This is Mr. Knack’s third attempt at winning a city council seat and he is not unchallenged. Health economist Bryan Sandilands, community activist Jamie Post, past-Wildrose Alliance candidate Sharon Maclise, and former CTV reporter Sean Amato have also entered the race. I suspect Mr. Knack’s head-start could be hard to overcome.

Ward 2
With three-term councillor Kim Krushell choosing not to seek re-election, there is an open race in north Edmonton’s Ward 2 . Both Don Koziak and Bev Esslinger will have name recognition from their previous political adventures. A perennial election candidate, Mr. Koziak placed a close second behind Ms. Krushell in 2010 and has run for office many times in the past, including as the Edmonton-Glenora Wildrose candidate in the 2012 provincial election and the mayoral election in 2007. Ms. Esslinger is known from her time as a public school trustee and as last year’s unsuccessful Progressive Conservative candidate in Edmonton-Calder. Candidate Nita Jalkanen could also play a factor in this race as a vocal opponent of the downtown arena project.

David Dodge Edmonton Ward 3
David Dodge

Ward 3
Is first-term councillor Dave Loken politically vulnerable? Challenger David Dodge hopes so. The low-profile Mr. Loken is facing a strong challenge from Mr. Dodge, the former president of the Edmonton Federation of Community Leagues. Mr. Loken has an incumbent advantage, but it could be a close race.

Ward 5
The race to replace four-term councillor Karen Leibovici has drawn a crowd. Businessman Michael Oshry, former City Hall insider Terry Demers, transit worker Allan Santos, community league president Rob Hennigar, beer man Jim Gibbon, and former Catholic schools trustee Rudy Arcilla are among the nine candidates. My money is on the cool and confident Mr. Oshry.

Heather Mackenzie Edmonton Ward 6
Heather Mackenzie

Ward 6
Sixteen candidates have entered this race to represent north central Edmonton’s core neighbourhoods. Public school trustee Heather Mackenzie, former Edmonton Journal columnist Scott McKeen, police offcer Dexx Williams and community league president Derrick Forsythe are who I would pick as leaders of the pack. But leading the pack might not be enough. Many of the candidates in this race can expect to receive a few hundred votes each by simply being on the ballot, which could siphon votes away from the front-runners.

Ward 10
Filling Don Iveson‘s shoes in Ward 10 will be a tall order (both literally and figuratively). Community organizer Michael Walters has been pounding the pavement and waging a well-financed campaign for months. As a past provincial election candidate, Mr. Walters also has name recognition in the area. He is facing challenges from university instructor Richard Feehan and businessman Hafis Devji, but they may have a difficult time catching up. My prediction: Mr. Walters’ sweeps Ward 10 on October 21.

Ward 11
Who will replace Kerry Diotte in Ward 11? Hoping to leverage his name recognition and local outrage over potholes, two-time mayoral candidate and former city councillor Mike Nickel is attempting to stage a political comeback, but he is not alone. Mixed martial arts company owner Harvey Panesar (watch his video below), retired citizenship judge Sonia Bitar, and Mujahid Chak could be the biggest obstacles to Mr. Nickel’s return to politics.

Categories
Alberta Politics

Beer man Jim Gibbon runs for Edmonton City Council

Jim Gibbon Edmonton City Council Ward 5
Jim Gibbon

Jim Gibbon, the founder and president of Amber’s Brewing Company, announced this week that he will run for City Council in west Edmonton’s Ward 5.

Speaking over the phone this week, the owner of the popular local craft beer company explained his reasons for wanting to run in the October 21 elections. Last year, Amber’s Brewing was forced to find a new location because of a sharp rise in rent at its former location in the Ritchie neighbourhood in south central Edmonton. Mr. Gibbon looked for a new location in Edmonton and enlisted the help of Ward 8 City Councillor Ben Henderson, who he described as being a great help.

But after meeting with city staff, who proved to be less helpful in responding to his requests to rezone a potential new location for the brewery, which could have included Petrolia Mall, he decided to look outside Edmonton. According to Mr. Gibbon, city staff told him it would take 18 months to properly rezone a new location, which was an unrealistic time frame for the local business to wait to find a new home. After inquiring with the City of Calgary, who told him they could quickly rezone a space for his brewery if he moved south, Mr. Gibbon told me he looked north to the City of St. Albert, where Amber’s is now brewed in a brewery owned by the Hog’s Head Brewing Company.

“We chase business out,” said Mr. Gibbon, who wants to make the city more friendly and flexible to local entrepreneurs who want to lay down roots in Edmonton.

Not just a simple beer man, Mr. Gibbon is a director of Edmonton’s Heritage Festival and holds a Masters in Business Administration, Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Sciences from the University of Alberta. Mr. Gibbon is the nephew grandson of Ray Gibbon, who served as mayor of St. Albert from 1968 to 1974 and as interim mayor in 1989.

In Ward 5, Mr. Gibbon faces five other declared candidates: former Catholic school trustee Rudy Arcilla, past provincial Liberal Party candidate Arif Khan, former city council executive assistant Terry Demers, Dan St. Pierre, and Michael Oshry. Ward 5 is currently represented by Councillor Karen Leibovici, who is running for mayor.

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Edmonton Politics

edmonton election 2010: election night races to watch!

After a month of driving by signs on the boulevards, volunteered knocking on your door, and receiving literature in the mail, Municipal Election Day in Alberta has arrived! As you sit down to enjoy a night of watching the results, tune into the live coverage at theEdmontonian.com, which is sure to be entertaining and educational (edutainment for all your political needs) and watch the results roll in online at ShareEdmonton. As a last send-off before the voting stations close at 8pm and the results roll in shortly afterward, here are some of the contests to watch:

Mayor
How much of the protest over the phased closure of the City Centre Airport will translate into the vote results. Most political watchers expect Mayor Stephen Mandel to be re-elected with a healthy margin with David Dorward to place a respectable second place and Daryl Bonar in third.

Ward 2
Hard-working incumbent Councillor Kim Krushell is facing a well-funded opponent in perennial candidate Don Koziak. The closure of the City Centre Airport is Mr. Koziak’s main issue, so it will be interesting to see if it has resonated with voters at the polls. This could be a close race.

Ward 3
WIth the retirement of long-time Councillor Ron Hayter, there is no incumbent standing in this Ward. Dave Loken is trying for his third time and is facing off against Councillor Hayter’s Executive Assistant Terry Demers and former Liberal candidate Kim Cassady. I expect Mr. Loken to take it, but this could also be a close race.

Ward 4
Councillor Ed Gibbons is being challenged by former MLA Dan Backs. Mr. Back’s campaign has campaigned hard on the City Centre Airport closure, so this will be another interesting race to watch. I give the edge to Councillor Gibbons, but it could be close.

Ward 7
First-term Councillor Tony Caterina is facing a challenge from on-leave Edmonton Journal columnist Scott McKeen and local activist Brendan Van Alstine. Councillor Caterina is a solid campaigner, but does not have a great reputation for working together with fellow Councillors. The incumbent probably has the edge in this race, but with three strong candidates it could be interesting.

Ward 11
The retirement of long-time Councillor Dave Thiele has left this seat as an open contest. My gut tells me that former Edmonton Sun columnist Kerry Diotte may skweek out a win in the end, but he faces three strong opponents in Chinwe Okelu, Shane Bergdahl, and Vishal Luthra.

For Public School Board, watch the races in Ward F between Michael Janz and Bev Sawyer and in Ward G between Sarah Hoffman and George Rice.

Categories
Edmonton Politics

edmonton election 2010: nomination day at city hall.

It was Christmas morning for political watchers this morning as candidates poured into City Hall to file their nomination papers. I have been to a lot of different political events in my time, but nothing has so far matched the euphoria of Nomination Day at City Hall.

Starting at 9am, bright eyed and well-intentioned candidates began to line up to submit their papers. As they moved down the line, candidates were peppered with questions and camera flashes by the media. For most candidates running in this election, this will be the closest they get to walking the red carpet.

After filing their nomination papers, candidates were scrummed and pressed by the media about who they were, where they were running, and what their positions were on pressing issues. Most of the media questions had to do with the decision to redevelop the City Centre Airport lands, but candidates also brought up their pet issues. Some candidates, like Councillor Jane Batty, came and left quickly. Others, like Ward 11 candidate Kerry Diotte, lingered to get as much media coverage as possible. Different styles for different candidates I suppose.

I was able to live-tweet this morning and you can see those tweets at @davecournoyer and others at #yegvote.

You might think that 30 days is a short time to reasonably campaign for election, and you would be right, but there were many candidates who came out of the woodwork to launch their campaign today. Most candidates came prepared and some, like Ward 11 candidate Vishal Luthra, came with campaign t-shirt toting entourages.

Almost Mayoral candidate Cheryl Ullah

One unfortunate Mayoral aspirant, Cheryl Ullah, came with her nomination papers signed, but forgot to bring her $500 deposit with her. In a bizarre scene, she started collecting donations from reporters and other candidates only 10 minutes before the nomination deadline. Although she was able to raise $90 in about 8 minutes (with a generous $60 donation from Ward A Public School Board Trustee Cheryl Johner), she was unable to make up the extra $410 and dropped out of the race. Don Koziak has now lost the record for shortest Mayoral candidacy.

Luckily for Edmontonians, Mayor Stephen Mandel and challengers Daryl Bonar, David Dorward, Dave Dowling, Dan Dromarsky, Bob Ligertwood, and Andrew Lineker remembered their $500 deposits.

Councillors Don Iveson and Bryan Anderson

Out of 114 candidates who submitted their nomination papers today, only two were acclaimed. Incumbent Public School Board Trustees Dave Colburn (Ward D) and Catherine Ripley (Ward H) will not face any challengers on October 18. There had been rumours that some City Councillors may also be acclaimed, but in the end a few last-minute candidates filed papers to run against Councillor Don Iveson (Ward 10) and Councillor Karen Leibovici (Ward 5).

There are new candidates and competitive races across the City, but there are three City Council Wards that at this point stick out in my mind as the hot races to watch. Curiously, they are in Wards with prime numbers.

Councillor Karen Leibovici is seeking re-election in Ward 5.

In the incumbentless Ward 3, Former Liberal candidate Kim Cassady filed his papers to run for City Council in Ward 3, taking on challengers Dave Loken and Terry Demers. This is Mr. Loken’s third time running for City Council and Ms. Demers second. As retiring Councillor Ron Hayter‘s Executive Assistant, Ms. Demers will have a special insight into the issues in this Ward. New entries into the Ward 3 contest are Shawn Philip Fairbridge, Hatem Naboulsi, John Oplanich, Greg Siver, Louis Sobolewski, and Michael Suess.

In Ward 7, former Edmonton Journal columnist Scott McKeen put his name forward last week to run against Councillor Tony Caterina. Challenger Brendan Van Alstine has been pounding the pavement for over a year to unseat Councillor Caterina, so Mr. McKeen’s entry had added some extreme unpredictability to the race in this north east central Ward. Other candidates entering the contest in Ward 7 today are Terry Rolls and Grant David Pullishy.

Candidate Chinwe Okelu is standing for election in Ward 11.

In south east central Edmonton, the vacant Ward 11 has drawn four main challengers in Community League organizer Shane Bergdahl, many-time candidate Chinwe Okelu, former Edmonton Sun columnist Mr. Diotte, and the well-organized Mr. Luthra. There has been an intense sign and door-knocking war happening in this Ward since earlier this year, which leads me to believe that it could be any one’s race. New candidates entering the race this morning are Roberto Maglalang and Brent Schaffrick

It also appears that some of the most competitive contests in this year’s election might be at the School Board level. In south central Ward F, long-time Public School Board Trustee Don Fleming is not seeking re-election, leaving a three-way race between Michael Janz, Bev Sawyer, and Joanna Rozmus. In Ward G, incumbent Trustee George Rice is facing some serious competition from Sarah Hoffman.

Attending Nomination Day at City Hall was an interesting and worthwhile experience. At no other time during the next 30 days are all of the candidates going to be in the same room at the same time. This morning have me the opportunity to put the names (and websites, Facebook groups, and twitter accounts) to the faces and actually talk with some of the candidates. I hope that all the readers of this blog take the time to read up and try to meet with the candidates standing for election in your area. As the campaign begins in full (and the full list of candidates are released this afternoon), I will be taking a closer look at each Ward contest, the Mayoral election, and the races at the School Board level.

UPDATE: The full list of candidates has been released (h/t to TheEdmontonian.com)