Tag: Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner by-election

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Alberta Politics

Is the Sky Blue? Conservatives crush in Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner by-election

The results of the by-election, as of 10:20 p.m. on October 24, 2016.
The results of the by-election, as of 10:20 p.m. on October 24, 2016.
Glen Motz
Glen Motz

It is 10:20 p.m. and Conservative Party candidate Glen Motz has cruised to a crushing victory in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner federal by-election. With 190 of 223 polls reporting, Mr. Motz had earned 69.3 percent of the vote, which is slightly higher to what the Conservative candidate earned in the October 2015 federal election. This is not unexpected, as voters in this sprawling southeast rural Alberta riding have a long history of supporting conservative candidates.

Though in a distant second place, Liberal candidate Stan Sakamoto is set to have achieved a high-water mark for the Liberals in this riding by earning the highest share of the vote for the Liberals since since 1974. An impressive mid-campaign splash by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, a first by a sitting prime minister since 1993, also prompted a visit by Conservative leader Rona Ambrose, a first by a Conservative Party leader since before 2006.

Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party candidate, Bev Waege, is sitting at an embarrassingly low 1 percent of the vote, down from the 2015 candidate’s 9 percent. Neither the federal nor provincial parties appear to have put much, if any, effort into this by-election campaign. The lack of an NDP candidate until midway through the campaign also likely pushed NDP supporters towards Mr. Sakamoto’s campaign.

The results are undoubtably a reflection of how voters in this deep southern rural Alberta riding (the heart of Wildrose Party territory) feel about the federal NDP opposition in Ottawa and the provincial NDP government in Edmonton (which is not encouraging news for Medicine Hat NDP MLA Bob Wanner).

I expect Wildrose MLAs will try to blame Premier Rachel Notley for this poor showing, but anyone who has been paying attention to rural politics in this province over the past 17 months will not be completely shocked by this result.

Shorter version: Not much has really changed. Carry on with politics as usual.

The final results of the by-election can be found on the Elections Canada website.

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Alberta Politics

Remember that time 2,000 people showed up to see Justin Trudeau in Medicine Hat? Yeah? That was tonight.

A crowd of more than 2,000 showed up to see Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Medicine Hat on October 13, 2016 (photo by @braedencaley on Twitter)
A crowd of more than 2,000 showed up to see Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Medicine Hat on October 13, 2016 (photo by @braedencaley on Twitter)
Stan Sakamoto
Stan Sakamoto

More than two thousand Albertans showed up to see Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tonight at a rally in the southern Alberta city of Medicine Hat. Mr. Trudeau was in town to support Liberal candidate Stan Sakamoto, a popular local businessman, in his bid to become the next Member of Parliament in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner riding in the October 24, 2016 by-election.

The riding is believed to be a very safe seat for the Conservative Party, whose candidate earned 68 percent of the vote in the 2015 election. Candidate Glen Motz is expected to win the election but the huge turnout at a Liberal Party rally should raise some eyebrows.

While a group of protesters, some carrying Alberta separatist banners, made an appearance at the rally, the large turnout certainly defies the Conservative and mainsteam media narrative about the hostility Albertans may feel toward Mr. Trudeau and his government.

Four Liberal MPs were elected in Alberta in the last election but before forming government, the Liberals had racked up an impressive record of increasing their party’s support in a series of Alberta by-elections, most notably in Calgary-Centre and Fort McMurray-Athabasca.

The Medicine Hat News on October 25, 1993 reporting on Kim Campbell's visit to the city.
The Medicine Hat News on October 25, 1993 reporting on Kim Campbell’s visit to the city.

There is a possibility that many of those Hatters who turned out tonight are voting for Mr. Sakamoto, but many may have just been curious to see Mr. Trudeau in person and listen to what he had to say.

I was surprised to learn that this was the first time a sitting Prime Minister has visited the city since Progressive Conservative Prime Minister Kim Campbell stopped by Medicine Hat during the 1993 election campaign.

Even during his nine years as Prime Minister, Conservative Stephen Harper never made the quick trip south of Calgary to visit the The Gas City!

Here is the full list of candidates running in the by-election:

Rhino Party: Kanye Cooper
Libertarian Party: Sheldon Johnston [Twitter]
Conservative Party: Glen Motz [Facebook, Twitter]
Liberal Party: Stan Sakamoto [Facebook, Instagram, Twitter]
Christian Heritage: Rod Taylor
New Democratic Party: Beverly Ann Waege

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Alberta Politics

Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner by-election set for October 24, 2016

Conservative candidate Glen Motz (centre) with MP and PC leadership candidate Jason Kenney and Sue Motz.
Conservative candidate Glen Motz (centre) with MP and PC leadership candidate Jason Kenney and Sue Motz.

A federal by-election will be held in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner riding on October 24, 2016. Voters in the riding are choosing a successor to Conservative Member of Parliament Jim Hillyer, who died in March 2016.

Stan Sakamoto
Stan Sakamoto

Conservative candidate Glen Motz was nominated in June 2016 and the Liberal Party candidate – Stan Sakamoto – was acclaimed last week. Mr. Sakamoto has operated the Shooting Star catering company in Medicine Hat since 1989 and was named Businessperson of the Year in 2010 by Medicine Hat College. He is the father of author and lawyer Mark Sakamoto, who served as a political advisor to former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff. Sheldon Johnston is the Libertarian Party candidate.

The New Democratic Party does not to appear to have nominated a candidate as of the time this post was published.

Advance voting will take place on October 14, 15, 16 and 17, 2016.

Three in the race to replace Harper in Heritage

Richard Billington
Richard Billington

Lawyer Richard Billington is the third candidate to enter the Conservative nomination race in Calgary-Heritage to replace former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who resigned earlier this month. Mr. Billington joins party activist Bob Benzen and city prosecutor Paul Frank. As noted in a previous post, Mr. Billington ran for the Conservative nomination in Calgary-Centre in 2012 and has served as the President of the Conservative association in Calgary-Heritage for the past three years.

The Conservative nomination meeting in Calgary-Heritage is scheduled to take place on October 22, 2016, but could be pushed ahead if a by-election is called earlier. An open forum is expected to be held with the nomination candidates on October 12 or 13, 2016.

Kenny to resign this week

After spending the summer campaigning for the leadership of the provincial Progressive Conservative Party, Jason Kenney is expected to resign as MP for Calgary-Midnapore on September 23, 2016. Mr. Kenney had announced earlier this summer that he would resign on October 1, 2016, when the PC leadership race officially begins, but he announced last week at a campaign stop in St. Albert that he would resign one week earlier. A by-election must be called within six months of his resignation, which would be March 23, 2017.

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Two Tories step up to run in Calgary-Heritage by-election after Harper resigns

Conservative leader Stephen Harper delivers his concession speech.
Conservative leader Stephen Harper delivers his concession speech after the votes were counted on the October 19, 2015 federal election.

Following former prime minister Stephen Harper’s resignation last week, a by-election must be called in the Calgary-Heritage riding by February 25, 2017. Two candidates have already entered the Conservative nomination race to succeed Mr. Harper in Calgary-Heritage.

The Calgary-Heritage federal riding (image from Wikipedia)
The Calgary-Heritage federal riding (image from Wikipedia)

Local Conservative Party activist Bob Benzen was the first to announce his candidacy for the nomination. His website states that he is the co-founder of the Decade of Excellence Committee, which paid for large billboards thanking Mr. Harper for his service in office after the Liberal Party’s victory in the October 2015 election.

Calgary lawyer Paul Frank is the second candidate to join the nomination contest. He previously ran in the 2012 Senator-in-Waiting election and as a candidate for the Conservative Party nomination in Calgary-Rocky Ridge in 2014.

Bob Benzen
Bob Benzen

Also mentioned as potential candidates are Richard Billington, who ran for the Conservative nomination in Calgary-Centre before the 2012 by-election (his wife, Susan Billington, was the 2015 Progressive Conservative candidate in Calgary-Varsity) and former Calgary-Centre MP Joan Crockatt, who was elected in the 2012 by-election and unseated by Liberal Kent Hehr in the 2015 general election.

Local Liberals have been actively campaigning in Calgary-Heritage in anticipation of Mr. Harper’s resignation (and the neighbouring Calgary-Midnapore in anticipation of Jason Kenney’s resignation on October 1, 2016).

Brendan Miles Liberal Calgary-Heritage by-election
Brendan Miles

Rumoured potential candidates for the Liberal nomination include lawyer and past Calgary-Confederation candidate Matt Grant, Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi‘s chief of staff Chima Nkemdirim, and past candidate Brendan Miles. Mr. Nenshi quashed rumours of his candidacy when he told Metro Calgary in May 2016 that he would not run in the by-election.

Mr. Harper was re-elected in October 2015 with 63 percent of the vote, ahead of Liberal Dr. Miles with 25 percent, New Democrat Matt Masters with 8 percent and Green Kelly Christie with 2 percent.

Before the 2015 election, the riding was known as Calgary-Southwest and had been represented by Mr. Harper since 2002. The riding was previously represented by Reform Party leader Preston Manning from 1993 to 2002.

19 Days Left! South east of Calgary, there are 19 days left until a federal by-election must be called in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner riding.

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Alberta Politics

40 days until the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner by-election needs to be called

Glen Motz Conservative Medicine Hat Cardston Warner
Glen Motz (at the mic) is the nominated Conservative Party of Canada candidate in the upcoming by-election in Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner.
The map of Medicine Hat-Carston-Warner riding.
The map of Medicine Hat-Carston-Warner riding.

Conservative Glen Motz and Libertarian Sheldon Johnston appear to be the only two candidates to so far step up to run in the upcoming federal by-election in Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner. The by-election has not been called yet but it will be called within the next 40 days – on or before the six month deadline of Sept. 26, 2016.

According to a story by iPolitics.ca reporter BJ Siekierski, neither the Liberals or New Democratic Party have nominated a candidate yet. Christian Heritage Party leader Rod Taylor will be touring through the riding on August 30 and 31.

Barring a political earthquake, it is expected the Conservative Party candidate will win the by-election in this sprawling southeast Alberta riding with a large Mormon community and a strong social conservative base.

Former Member of Parliament Jim Hillyer, who died earlier this year, was re-elected on October 5, 2015 with 68 percent of the vote, compared to 17 percent for Liberal Glen Allan and 9 percent for NDPer Erin Weir.

Provincially, the area covered by the federal riding is represented by Cypress-Medicine Hat MLA Drew Barnes and Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Grant Hunter of the Wildrose Party and Medicine Hat MLA Bob Wanner of the New Democratic Party. Mr. Wanner is the Speaker of Alberta’s Legislative Assembly.

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Alberta Politics

Coming Soon: A federal by-election in Calgary-Midnapore

Jason Kenney said last week that he will resign as the Member of Parliament for Calgary-Midnapore when the Progressive Conservative Party leadership campaign officially starts on October 1, 2016. He is expected to spend the summer months campaigning for the party leadership while presumably continuing to have access to MP resources and collecting his Ottawa salary and pension.

If Mr. Kenney does go on to win the leadership of the PC Party in March 2017, he may look for an opportunity to quickly become an MLA. If interim party leader Ric McIver were to resign as MLA for Calgary-Hays, he would create an opening for Mr. Kenney to enter the Legislature.

In return, Mr. McIver could potentially seek the federal Conservative nomination to run in the by-election to replace Mr. Kenney in Calgary-Midnapore. The Calgary-Hays constituency is inside the boundaries of the Calgary-Sheperd federal riding but was until 2015 partially in Calgary-Southeast, a federal riding represented by Mr. Kenney from 1997 until 2015.

Mr. McIver represented southeast Calgary as an Alderman from 2000 to 2012 and as an MLA since 2012. A jump into federal politics would be a natural fit. He would become one of the few Canadian politicians to have been elected at three orders of government and it would also give Mr. McIver an honourable path to bow out of provincial politics without seeking the party leadership for a second time.

Michael Connolly
Michael Connolly

Of note, Calgary-Hawkwood NDP MLA Michael Connolly was briefly nominated as the federal NDP candidate in Calgary-Midnapore before he decided to instead throw his hat into provincial politics before the 2015 election, which turned out to be a good choice. Mr. Connolly was elected as MLA in May 2015 and Mr. Kenney was re-elected in October 2015 with 70 percent of the vote.

A federal by-eleciton is expected to be called soon in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner federal riding and another will be held in the Calgary-Heritage riding after former Prime Minister Stephen Harper resigns as MP, which he is expected to do this summer.

In anticipation of the three by-elections, I am maintaining a special page to keep track of the three potential federal by-elections in Alberta.

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Glen Motz wins Conservative nomination in Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner

Glen Motz Conservative Medicine Hat Cardston Warner
Glen Motz (at the mic) is the nominated Conservative Party of Canada candidate in the upcoming by-election in Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner.

Glen Motz will be the Conservative Party of Canada candidate in the upcoming federal by-election in the riding of Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner. Mr. Motz defeated five other men, including former Wildrose Party leader and Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Paul Hinman, in a contest that drew more than 3,100 party members to vote. The candidate was chosen on a fourth round of voting using a preferential ballot system.

Paul Hinman Wildrose Calgary
Paul Hinman

Mr. Motz is a long-time community volunteer in Medicine Hat who served in the local police service for 35 years before retiring as an Inspector in December 2015. According to his online bio, in 2013, Governor General David Johnston presented him with The Order of Merit of Police Forces.

He also has some social conservative views that are probably closer to the mainstream in this sprawling rural south east Alberta riding than they are in most of Canada.

“I’m pro-life, there’s no question. Unfortunately it’s the law of the land in this country,” Mr. Motz is reported to have told a crowd of supporters at a candidate’s forum in June 2016. “I will continue to fight that the rights of the unborn are not eroded further. I believe in the sanctity of life.”

Women’s reproductive rights and gay rights were some of the top issues debated by a field of white male candidates in the last nomination contest held in this riding in 2014.

The Liberals, New Democrats and Greens have not yet nominated a candidate.

Following the death of Conservative Member of Parliament Jim Hillyer on March 23, 2016, Elections Canada has announced that a by-election must be called in Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner before September 26, 2016. The earliest a by-election could have been held was May 16, 2016.

Stephen Harper Calgary Stampede
Stephen Harper

This is one of the most reliably Conservative voting ridings in Canada, so it is almost a certainty that Mr. Motz will be the next Member of Parliament. Mr. Hillyer earned 68.8 percent of the vote when he was re-elected in October 2015.

Calgary-Heritage

Another federal by-election is expected to be held in the Calgary-Heritage riding if former Prime Minister Stephen Harper resigns as an MP later this summer as predicted. The names of a handful of potential nominees for the Conservative nomination have been rumoured, including Calgary-Hays Progressive Conservative MLA Ric McIver.

While it is expected that the Conservatives will easily hold on to this riding, the Liberals did see their share of the vote skyrocket from 7 percent in the 2011 election to 26 percent in the 2015 election (the Conservative vote in this riding dropped from 74.3 percent in 2011 to 63.7 percent in 2015).

Brendan Miles Liberal Calgary-Heritage by-election
Brendan Miles

The Liberals also saw their vote share increase significantly in four federal by-elections held in Alberta before the 2015 election, including in Calgary-Centre in 2012. Without the appeal of an incumbent Conservative MP or a sitting Prime Minister, the Liberals could see their vote increase in this by-election as well.

He does not appear to have officially declared his intentions to run for the Liberal Party nomination, but past candidate Brendan Miles has been knocking on doors in the riding for months and the local Liberal association is holding a pancake breakfast during the Calgary Stampede.

Calgary-Midnapore

And of course, if Jason Kenney does indeed decide to make a jump into provincial politics, there would also be a by-election held in the federal riding of Calgary-Midnapore.

Perhaps in anticipation of a surprise by-election, the local Liberals in this riding have scheduled an organization and training session for July 20, 2016.

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Is the sky blue? A Conservative win in Southern Alberta by-election a certainty

Following the death of Conservative Member of Parliament Jim Hillyer on March 23, 2016, Elections Canada has announced that a by-election must be called in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner electoral district before September 26, 2016. The earliest a by-election could be held is May 16, 2016.

A map of the electoral district.
A map of the electoral district.

By-elections can produce unexpected results, as we have seen recently in Alberta, but as one of the strongest Conservative voting areas of the country, it is very likely the next MP for this area will be a Conservative. Mr. Hillyer was elected in October 2015 with 68 percent of the vote, ahead of Liberal Glen Allan with 17 percent and New Democrat Erin Weir with 9 percent (not that Erin Weir).

Conservatives partisans in this region of Alberta tend to occupy the social conservative side of that party’s coalition. But that does not necessarily mean they are united.

The author of this blog outside the Creation Science Museum in Bow Island, Alberta.
The author of this blog outside the Creation Science Museum in Bow Island, Alberta.

This electoral district spans the beautiful stretch along Alberta’s southeast boundaries with Saskatchewan and Montana. The large rural district includes the City of Medicine Hat (a city of 63,000 residents), Canadian Forces Base Suffield, the Blood Indian Reserve (the largest and second most populated reserve in Canada), a large community of followers of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and the Bow Island Creation Discovery Centre.

The area was represented by Conservative MP LaVar Payne from 2008 to 2015. Former cabinet minister Monte Solberg represented the area as a Reform Party, Canadian Alliance, Democratic Representative Caucus and Conservative MP from 1993 until 2008.

Former Social Credit MP Bud Olson was re-elected as a Liberal MP in 1968 and served as Minister of Agriculture in Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau’s cabinet until his electoral defeat in 1972. The riding became a Progressive Conservative stronghold from 1972 to 1993.

Provincially, the area is currently represented by Cypress-Medicine Hat MLA Drew Barnes and Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Grant Hunter of the Wildrose Party and Medicine Hat MLA Bob Wanner of the New Democratic Party.

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