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Alberta Politics

i missed the orange wave.

Around 1:30 am on May 2, 2011, I returned to Edmonton after spending a month travelling across the vast continent of Australia. That day also happened to be Election Day in Canada. On a social media detox while I was out of the country and suffering from severe jet lag from the moment I returned, I missed and was near oblivious of the phenomenon that had become known as “the Orange Wave.”

That night, as I watched election results come in from across Canada, I felt like I had returned to a different country. The Conservative Party won a majority government, the official opposition Liberal Party collapsed, the Bloc Quebecois almost vanished off the electoral map, the Green Party elected its first Member of Parliament, and candidates from Jack Layton‘s New Democratic Party were elected in more than one hundred constituencies and for the first time formed the Official Opposition in Ottawa.

To magnify the degree of how out of the loop I was at the time, I fall into a category with an incredibly small fraction of Canadians who voted for the NDP in the 2006 and 2008 elections, but cast their ballot for the Liberal candidate in 2011 (also known as the “Liberal Back Eddy of 2011“). This choice had little to do with Michael Ignatieff and nearly everything to do with the hard-working and very-likeable local Liberal candidate, Mary MacDonald.

Thomas Mulcair Edmonton Alberta January 2011
Thomas Mulcair

Yesterday, Thomas Mulcair was chosen to lead the NDP Official Opposition in Ottawa. Having had the opportunity to meet the three leading candidates – Mr. Mulcair, Brian Topp, and Nathan Cullen – I was impressed with the quality of leadership candidates that members of the NDP had to choose from. In January of this year, I met Mr. Mulcair while he was visiting Edmonton. At the time, I wrote that:

I was not sure what to expect from his talk, but I found myself pleasantly surprised with Mr. Mulcair’s ability to offer intelligent pragmatic social democratic answers to a crowd  consisting of committed leftists was both impressive and sometimes brave.

As a centre-leftish voter, I am looking for a party that will put forward a forward-looking progressive agenda for Canada, which should not be confused with the tired traditional partisan socialist dogma (referred to by some as the Church of the NDP). As an outsider to the NDP, I have found Mr. Mulcair’s ability to challenge those traditional positions encouraging and I recognize that it may be one of his largest challenges from inside his own party’s ranks.

Western Canada is becoming the country’s economic leader. As a Quebec MP, Mr. Mulcair should try to avoid being sucked into the traditional eastern Canadian “father knows best” attitude around economic development. Mr. Mulcair should also try to avoid being caught in the Conservative Party trap that would have any criticism or suggestion of deviation from our current resources extraction methods labelled as “anti-Albertan.” (Stephen Harper‘s Conservative Party has already released talking points to be used against Mr. Mulcair).

Mr. Mulcair and all of the NDP Members of Parliament from central and eastern Canada should consider travelling west and knocking on some doors during Alberta’s upcoming provincial election. Their provincial cousins will undoubtably appreciate the help and it may give those MP’s a better idea of what real Albertans, not just their Conservative politicians, are actually thinking.

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Alberta Politics

thomas mulcair comes to edmonton.

Thomas Mulcair NDP Edmonton
Thomas Mulcair

Last week I had to opportunity to hear Outremont MP and NDP leadership candidate Thomas Mulcair speak in Edmonton.

Aside from being aware of his role as Jack Layton‘s Quebec Lieutenant and that he was once a provincial cabinet minister, my knowledge of Mr. Mulcair was not vast.

I was not sure what to expect from his talk, but I found myself pleasantly surprised with Mr. Mulcair’s ability to offer intelligent pragmatic social democratic answers to a crowd  consisting of committed leftists was both impressive and sometimes brave (Blogger David Climenhaga has written an interesting blog post with his impressions of Mr. Mulcair’s visit to Edmonton).

Much like Brian Topp, who I heard speak in December 2011, I was left with the impression that Mr. Mulcair understands that most Canadians are political moderates and that that his party needs the support of those moderates to form a government.

Closer to home, Edmonton-Strathcona NDP MP Linda Duncan is expected to endorse Ottawa-Centre MP and leadership candidate Paul Dewar on Thursday.

Check out Pundits’ Guide for more information about the federal NDP leadership contest.

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Alberta Politics

ndp leadership candidates attending edmonton kitchen table talks.

2012 NDP leadership candidates Nathan Cullen Paul Dewar and Brian Topp
Three federal NDP leadership candidates: Nathan Cullen, Paul Dewar, and Brian Topp

Home of Alberta’s only NDP Member of Parliament, Linda Duncan, the Edmonton-Strathcona NDP Association is hosting a series of “Kitchen Table Talks” with NDP leadership candidates (named in honour of Jack Layton and his penchant for addressing the kinds of problems that people talk about around the kitchen table).

The informal format of the “kitchen table talks” will give Edmontonians a chance to meet the candidates and give the candidates a chance to ask questions and engage with participants.

Talks have been scheduled with three of the leadership candidates, so far:

November 17: Nathan Cullen 18:30-20:30 at the McKernan Community League, 11341 78th Avenue

November 22: Paul Dewar 19:30-21:30 at the City Arts Centre, 10943 84th Avenue

December 12: Brian Topp 19:30-21:30 at the City Arts Centre, 10943 84th Avenue

The other candidates to enter the leadership contest are Niki Ashton, Robert ChisholmThomas Mulcair, Peggy Nash, Romeo Saganash, and Martin Singh. NDP members will be selecting their new leader on March 24, 2012.

Visit PunditGuide.ca for more detailed information about the NDP leadership contest.

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Alberta Politics

rest in peace, jack layton.

NDP leader Jack Layton in Edmonton.
NDP Leader Jack Layton at a rally at the Winspear Centre in Edmonton (September 20, 2008).

Very sad news this morning. NDP leader Jack Layton has passed away at the age of 61. Mr. Layton took a break as NDP leader earlier this summer to battle a new cancer he had been diagnosed with.

NDP Leader Jack Layton has died, his family said in a statement today.

Mr. Layton’s wife, Olivia Chow and his children Michael and Sarah, said Mr. Layton passed away at 4:45 am today.

“He passed away peacefully at his home surrounded by family and loved ones,” the statement read.

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Alberta Politics

federal election 2011: alberta painted conservative blue, with a spec of ndp orange.

The NDP surge seen in other parts of the country did not manifest itself in Alberta. While Jack Layton‘s Party surged in Quebec, and increased their caucus numbers in British ColumbiaOntario and the Maritimes, the NDP only elected one MP in Alberta, dashing hopes that the party had in three Edmonton ridings. The NDP placed second province-wide with 16.8% of the vote, increasing their total by 4.1% since the 2008 election.

The Liberal Party took a historical beating in every province yesterday save Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island and that Party fell to a pathetic 9.3% province-wide vote in Alberta. No one expected the Liberals to be strong in Alberta, but less than one in ten Albertans voted for the Liberal Party in yesterday’s election.

The Conservatives maintained their dominance in Alberta and elected 27 of 28 MPs, while receiving support of 66.8% of voters province-wide.

Federal NDP candidates Lewis Cardinal, Linda Duncan, and Ray Martin at an April 2011 rally.

Edmonton-Strathcona MP Linda Duncan was re-elected with a clear mandate of 26,134 votes (53% of the vote) over her Conservative Party opponent Ryan Hastman, who earned 19,755 votes (40% of the total vote). The Conservatives had hoped to reclaim this riding, which they held until Ms. Duncan’s upset victory against Rahim Jaffer in 2008. Instead the ridings voters rejected the Conservative Blue wave that swept Alberta and granted Ms. Duncan the first majority vote that any MP from Edmonton-Strathcona has received since 1984.

In Edmonton-East, a riding the NDP has hoped to succeed in, former MLA Ray Martin increased his vote share from the 2008 election, but it was not enough to defeat incumbent Conservative Peter Goldring. Mr. Goldring managed to finish almost 7,000 votes ahead of Mr. Martin. This was Mr. Martin’s fourth attempt to win a seat in Parliament since 1997.

In Edmonton-Centre, the NDP dislodged the Liberals in the contest for second place, while Conservative MP Laurie Hawn finished with 47% support. Mr. Hawn finished around 9,000 votes ahead of his nearest opponent, the hardworking NDP candidate Lewis Cardinal. The Liberal candidate Mary MacDonald had waged an aggressive campaign in the riding, but failed to beat her Party’s national downward trend.

The Conservatives elected two rookie MPs in Alberta yesterday, Michelle Rempel in Calgary-Centre North and Jim Nation Hillyer in Lethbridge.

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Alberta Politics

federal election 2011: what could it mean for alberta and the oil sands?

Majority Government without Majority Support of Canadians
A big weakness of our electoral system reared its head last night as the Conservative Party formed their first majority government since 1988, but did not earn the majority support of Canadians. Prime Minister Stephen Harper‘s Party increased their seat count in the House of Commons to 167 while only receiving the support of roughly 40% of Canadian voters, creating a situation somewhat reminiscent of the Liberal Party victories of the 1990s.

In Alberta, the Conservatives elected 27 of 28 MPs while only receiving support of 66.8% of voters province-wide.

Back to two and a half
There are all sorts of predictions and speculative analysis that could be made about what the new dynamic means for Alberta. With the Bloc Quebecois decimated and the Liberal Party collapsed into third-party status, Canada has unexpectedly returned to a two [and a half?] party system similar to what existed before the 1993 election. It will be interesting to watch how this new old dynamic manifests itself and whether the Official Opposition NDP will be able to present a strong alternative to the probable Conservatives moves towards privatization of governments services and health care. It will also be interesting to watch whether the Liberals can recover from such a devastating electoral blow.

What could the new Parliament mean for Alberta?
With a Conservative majority government, Alberta will have a strong supporter of oil sands development in Ottawa, but it will also have a more vocal critic in the new and large NDP Official Opposition and Green Party leader Elizabeth May, who was elected in Sanich-Gulf Islands.

While visiting Alberta during the campaign, NDP leader Jack Layton only briefly mentioned his party’s position on the oil sands, which is quickly replacing the old Central Canadian industrial base as Canada’s economic engine. As Official Opposition lead with a large contingent of MPs from Quebec, Mr. Layton may feel stronger license to criticize the development of the oil sands, which appears to be a popular stance in Central and Eastern Canada.

Early in the election campaign, provincial Liberal leader David Swann and NDP leader Brian Mason were reportedly distancing themselves from their federal counterparts on this issue and Premier Ed Stelmach and Wildrose leader Danielle Smith weighed in during the election campaign.

As NDP Environment Critic in the last Parliament, Edmonton-Strathcona NDP MP Linda Duncan could find herself placed front and centre of any upcoming Parliamentary debate on the future of Alberta’s oil sands.

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Alberta Politics

the new canada: painted blue and orange.

2011 Federal Election Results: Conservative (Blue), NDP (Orange), Liberal (Red), Light Blue (BQ)

What started as a less than exciting federal election when the writ was dropped in April 2011 turned into a monumental political shift tonight.

The Conservative Party has formed a majority government under the leadership of Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Toronto-Danforth Member of Parliament Jack Layton led the NDP in dislodging Michael Ignatieff‘s Liberal Party and decimating the Bloc Quebecois to become the Official Opposition for the first time. In the British Columbia riding of Sanich-Gulf IslandGreen Party leader Elizabeth May has become her party’s first elected Member of Parliament.

Seat Count
Conservative 166 MPs
NDP: 103 MPs
Liberal: 34 MPs
BQ: 4 MPs
Green: 1 MP

Percentage of National Vote
Conservative: 39.6%
NDP: 30.7%
Liberal: 18.7%
BQ: 6.1%
Green: 3.8%

It certainly gives this blogger a lot to think about.

Categories
Alberta Politics

liberals bury climate change policy on page 46.

The Liberal Party released its full campaign platform today. The announcement was live-streamed online, and contrasting the closed-and-controlled Conservative Party campaign, the Liberals gave online viewers the opportunity to ask questions about their platform.

Andrew Leach, an Assistant Professor at the University of Alberta School of Business, asked some key questions about what the platform includes for climate change and Alberta in his recent Globe & Mail column:

The Liberal Party’s key climate change policy announcement, and by far the most important environmental position taken thus far in the campaign, was buried on page 46 of its policy platform.

You are forgiven if you missed it since Michael Ignatieff did not mention it once. In fact, when asked a direct question on the Liberal Party’s policies on climate change, he listed removal of oil sands tax credits and a re-vamped green tax credit program.

He did not mention that the Liberals have committed to an aggressive cap-and-trade program which would, “set a ceiling on the total amount of permissible greenhouse gas emissions by large industrial facilities.” By not discussing this policy at all, the Liberals have left many key questions unanswered. Read more…

During his campaign kick-off in Edmonton on March 26, NDP leader Jack Layton only briefly mentioned the oil sands, an issue that he elaborated on further in a visit to Montreal during the following week later.

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Alberta Politics

jack layton campaign speech in edmonton.

NDP leader Jack Layton was in Edmonton on Saturday, March 26, delivering the message that only his party can defeat Conservative MPs in the city.

The NDP are focusing their resources in the region on the campaigns of Edmonton-Strathcona MP Linda Duncan, Edmonton-Centre candidate Lewis Cardinal, and Edmonton-East candidate Ray Martin.

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Alberta Politics

here’s the rundown – federal election races to watch in edmonton.

In the land where federal election results are typically much ado about nothing, the election scheduled for May 2, 2011 is not much of an exception. As the Liberals and NDP fill ballots across the province with last minute paper candidates, with few exceptions Alberta remains safe electoral territory for the Conservative Party of Canada.

If any riding in Alberta changes hands in this federal election, it will be Edmonton-Strathcona. It is the only riding represented by an opposition Member of Parliament and Conservatives have made it their goal to unseat NDP MP Linda Duncan, who defeated Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer by a slim 463 votes in 2008. After campaigning for two years, the Conservatives hope that candidate Ryan Hastman is the one who can do the job.

As the NDP’s Environment Critic in Ottawa, Ms. Duncan has gone against the grain of other Alberta MP colleagues by criticizing the oil sands and its impact on the environment. In a campaign stop in Edmonton this weekend, NDP leader Jack Layton only briefly mentioned the environment, suggesting that he may have been avoiding the issue while in Alberta (he also did not take media questions while in the province).

The Green Party has nominated Environmental Economics and Policy student Andrew Fehr, who faces the challenge of convincing Green-leaning voters that actually voting for a Green Party is a better choice than a strategic vote for Ms. Duncan. The Liberals have not yet nominated a candidate and appear to be a non-factor in this contest.

Federal NDP candidates Lewis Cardinal, Linda Duncan, and Ray Martin.

The highly polarized geopolitics of this riding have the Conservatives drawing strong support from polls in the east and NDP drawing strong support from polls in the west. Both candidates will lean heavy on financial and organizational support from their national parties, making this riding too close to call.

The irony is that the NDP could increase their vote total across Edmonton at the same time they could lose the only riding they currently hold.

In Edmonton-Centre the real contest to watch is not to defeat door-knocking/hand-shaking/baby-kissing election-machine Conservative MP Laurie Hawn. The real contest is for second place. The Liberals hope their candidate Mary MacDonald can regain the support they lost in the last election and maintain their position as the de facto alternative to the Conservatives in this riding. The NDP are hoping that their candidate Lewis Cardinal can help build the kind of support needed to cut the Liberals down to third place. This is similar to the multi-election strategy that helped the NDP make gains in Strathcona.

The Liberals held this riding from 1993 until 2006 when Mr. Hawn defeated Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan. Mr Hawn’s vote share decreased in 2008 while his margin widened substantially as the Liberal vote collapsed. The Greens have nominated 2008 candidate David Parker and also running is Mikkel Paulson, leader of the Pirate Party of Canada.

Edmonton-East MP Peter Golding is what I would refer to as a wall-paper backbencher. Since he was first elected in 1997, Mr. Goldring seems to only pop into the media spotlight when taking up odd causes like exposing the “truth about Louis Riel” or joining the bizarre drive to get the obscure Caribbean Islands of Turks and Caicos to join Canada.

The NDP have steadily increased their support in this riding since the 2004 election and former MLA Ray Martin is hoping that this trend continues. Mr Martin is an NDP institution in northeast Edmonton, having been elected as an MLA from 1982 to 1993, a public school board trustee from 2001 to 2004, and once again as an MLA from 2004 to 2008. This is the fourth time Mr Martin has sought a seat in Parliament since 1997. The Liberals have nominated IT management consultant Shafik Ruda.

Edmonton-Sherwood Park was the second closest race in 2008, when Independent Conservative James Ford nearly defeated Conservative candidate Tim Uppal. It was a city mouse versus county mouse game as many voters in Strathcona County and Fort Saskatchewan were upset with the Conservative nomination process that led to County Councillor Jacquie Fenske defeat and allowed Edmontonian Mr. Uppal to win the nomination.

Mr. Ford is running again and the Liberals and NDP, represented by Rick Szostak and Mike Scott, are expected to play minor supporting roles in this contest. The big question is whether voters in the county still feel that Mr. Uppal’s candidacy is the great injustice they believed it to be in 2008.

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Alberta Politics

alberta politics notes 3/25/2011

NDP leader Jack Layton at a 2008 campaign rally in Edmonton. Mr. Layton will be in Edmonton tomorrow.

Federal Election
Alberta looks like safe Conservative Party territory with the exception of the eclectic Edmonton-Strathcona, where NDP MP Linda Duncan will fend off a strong challenge from Conservative Ryan Hastman. NDP leader Jack Layton will make his first campaign stop in Edmonton at a downtown rally tomorrow. A recent Postmedia poll showed the Conservatives leading support in Alberta with 54%, followed by the Liberals at 23%, the NDP at 17%, and the Greens with 5%. These are unusually high levels of support for the opposition parties and I would expect future polls to show lower support.

HQCA advisory committee
The appointment of former Liberal Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan and retired Judge Allan Wachowich to an advisory panel to the Health Quality Council of Alberta may weaken opposition calls for a full Public Inquiry into the intimidation of health care professionals. The Liberals have made it their key issue in the spring session and the Friends of Medicare are preparing to rally for it tomorrow, but the presence of the province’s highest profile Liberal will make it difficult for Liberal leader David Swann to criticize the HCQA investigation.

Stelmach comes out
The Edmonton Journal’s Graham Thomson has written an interesting article about the new energy Premier Ed Stelmach has found since announcing his resignation in February 2010.

Wildrose fundraising
The Wildrose Alliance released their 2010 fundraising numbers showing that party took in almost $1.8 million in revenue, with $1.4 million in donations from over 5,100 donors. As mandated by the Elections Finances Act all parties are required to submit their annual financial contribution statements by March 31 of each calendar year.

Koch lobbyist in Alberta
The Alberta Federation of Labour has asked Premier Stelmach to reaffirm his government’s commitment to Collective Bargaining after discovering that Koch Companies of Wichita, Kansas has hired a lobbyist in Alberta. Koch Companies is owned by the billionaire Koch brothers, who have donated copious amounts of money to Tea Party Republicans, including Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Governor Walker’s government recently stripped workers in that state of their rights to collective bargaining.

Alberta Party goes Obama
The Alberta Party is bringing in Jeff Blodgett to help train their constituency association volunteers on April 1 in Calgary. Mr. Blodgett is the Founding Director of Wellstone Action! and was the Minnesota State Director for President Barack Obama‘s election campaign in 2008.

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Alberta Politics

federal opposition parties putting pressure on the tories in edmonton.

Opposition parties hope to turn the death of Edmonton’s Expo 2017 bid into a major campaign issue.

The Christian Heritage Party of Canada election campaign sign near Morinville, Alberta in the Westlock-St. Paul riding.

Federal opposition parties are preparing for the next federal election and nominating candidates in Alberta ridings where they think breakthroughs are possible.

The federal Liberals ended 2010 with a meeting in Edmonton-East selecting Shafik Ruda as their candidate of choice against five-term Member of Parliament Peter Goldring and former NDP MLA Ray Martin. Liberals in Calgary-East are expected to nominate Josipa Petrunic on January 18 to challenge Tory MP Deepak Obhrai. In late 2010, the Conservatives acclaimed party insider Michelle Rempel as their candidate in Calgary-Centre North, recently vacated by former Environment Minister Jim Prentice.

The federal Liberals slate in Alberta is expected to be bolstered when a high-profile candidate announces their intentions to stand against Labour Minister Rona Ambrose in Edmonton-Spruce Grove. Alberta political watchers have been abuzz with rumours that Ruth Kelly, publisher of Alberta Venture magazine and former President of Edmonton’s Chamber of Commerce, will carry the Liberal Party banner against Minister Ambrose. The rumours began after Ms. Kelly’s became an outspoken critics of the Government of Canada’s denial of funding for Edmonton’s bid for the 2017 Expo (and the large pile of federal infrastructure funding that was expected to come with a successful bid).

While I have remained largely indifferent to the 2017 Expo bid, it is easy to understand the frustration of the people who committed their time and energy towards the bid only to have political powers in Ottawa deny the funds needed to make it a reality. Minister Ambrose will be difficult to defeat, but I am glad that the Conservatives might actually have to pay some attention to and focus some of their campaign resources on a riding that they would likely take for granted.

A shift in financial and volunteer resources could also make a difference in the expected competitive races in Edmonton-Strathcona between NDP MP Linda Duncan and Tory candidate Ryan Hastman, and in Edmonton-Centre where Liberal Mary MacDonald and New Democrat Lewis Cardinal are challenging Tory MP Laurie Hawn.

A mail flyer sent out by Edmonton-Centre Conservative MP Laurie Hawn in Fall 2010.

Does Edmonton have a champion in Ottawa?

It is really hard to tell sometimes. Our Members of Parliament can be often seen at events around our city (some more than others), but none of them have distinguished themselves as Edmonton’s strong voice in the national capital.

Edmonton has its share of competent representatives in our local batch of current MPs, like Mike Lake, James Rajotte, Tim Uppal, and Mr. Hawn, but none of them have succeeded in carrying the kind of political clout that has defined Edmonton’s previous prominent champions in Ottawa.

In the recent past, our city has sent prominent voices like Jim EdwardsDeb Grey and Anne McLellan to the House of Commons and as one local columnist has suggested, we have not had a champion since. Edmonton’s lone opposition MP, Ms. Duncan, was elected with high expectations in October 2008, but has been somewhat of a ghost in our city ever since.

Are federal party leaders paying attention of Edmonton? Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, NDP leader Jack Layton, and Green Party leader Elizabeth May have visited Edmonton a number of times in the past year. Prime Minister Stephen Harper visited Edmonton this year for the first time since 2008.