Then-leader of the Wildrose Party Danielle Smith at a press conference during the 2014 Edmonton-Whitemud by-election. Newly nominated Wildrose candidate Jason Nixon is standing on the right side of the photo. (source: Dave Cournoyer)
It has been almost two weeks since Alberta Premier Danielle Smithnamed her new 24-member cabinet and a lot of ink has been spilled dissecting what the appointments could mean for the start of the United Conservative Party’s second term as government and the next four years.
There are big challenges facing the new cabinet, especially for ministers appointed to high-profile positions. But what caught my attention among the appointments was the return of two former cabinet ministers who were pushed into the backbenches when Smith entered the Premier’s Office last October.
Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley at an Edmonton rally on May 28, 2023 (source: Rachel Notley / Facebook)
Victory was within sight but out of reach for Notley’s party
It was a historic election result for the Alberta NDP.
Rachel Notley’s NDP won 38 seats in last week’s election and will form the largest Official Opposition in the province’s history. The NDP got more votes in this election than it ever has before, including a historic high of 49% in Calgary. The party ran the most sophisticated, well-organized and best-funded campaign in its history.
But it fell short of its ultimate goal of forming government.
By-elections will be held in the federal ridings of Calgary-Heritage and Calgary-Midnapore on April 3, 2017. Voting stations in those ridings will be open from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. on that day.
If you are unable to cast a ballot on the by-election day on Monday, April 3, 2017, you can vote in the advance polls on March 24, 25, 26 and 27 from 12:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. at a voting station in those districts. If you are not sure where your voting station is located or what federal riding you live in, visit the Elections Canada website and use the postal code search tool to find out.
If you are already registered to vote in those ridings, you will receive a voter information card by mail which will tell you where your voting station is located. You should receive it by March 18. You can also use the Voter Information Service to find out where to vote.
According to section 132 (1) of the Canada Elections Act, everyone who is eligible to vote in a federal election must be allowed three consecutive hours to cast their vote on election day. If your hours of work do not allow for three consecutive hours to vote, your employer must give you time off.
If are unsure who the candidates in your riding are, I am maintaining a by-election page with links to candidate websites and social media accounts.
UPDATE: By-elections in Calgary-Heritage and Calgary-Midnapore will be held on April 3, 2017.
Two by-elections could be called in the federal ridings of Calgary-Heritage and Calgary-Midnapore in a matter of days. The by-elections must be called in Calgary-Heritage by February 25, 2017 and in Calgary-Midnapore no later than March 22, 2017 but it is expected that they could be called at the same time as a required by-election in Ottawa-Vanier, which must be called by February 19, 2017.
Voters in both of these Calgary ridings have voted overwhelmingly in support of Conservative candidates in recent elections (63 percent in Calgary-Heritage and 66 percent in Calgary-Midnapore in 2015), so the Conservatives are definitely the favourites to win. But as all political watchers know, sometimes by-elections can produce unpredictable results. In a 2012 by-election in Calgary-Centre, the Conservatives saw their 19,770 vote margin of victory from the 2011 general election evaporate when Joan Crockatt was narrowly elected by 1,158 votes (she was unseated by Liberal candidate Kent Hehr in 2015).
Former Conservative MP Lee Richardson will Liberals in an upcoming Calgary by-election.
A quick update on the upcoming federal by-elections in Calgary-Heritage and Calgary-Midnapore:
– Former Conservative MP Lee Richardsonwill not run for the Liberal nomination in Calgary-Heritage, but three other candidates – Scott Forsyth, Steven Turner and Kanwar Gill – will run. Forsyth is a family physician who holds both medical and law degrees from the University of Calgary He is also a Fellow at Royal Canadian Geographical Society. Turner is a former Conservative supporter who ran for the federal Liberal nomination ahead of the Calgary-Centre by-election in 2012.
– The New Democratic Party is expected to nominate Holly Heffernan as their candidate in Calgary-Midnapore on Feb. 6, 2017. Heffernan is a Registered Nurse, labour activist and past NDP candidate. She was a provincial NDP candidate in Calgary-Glenmore in 2004 and federal NDP candidate in Calgary-Southwest in 2006, 2008 and 2011.
– Darcy Gerow is the Libertarian Party candidate in Calgary-Heritage.
An updated list of nominated by-election candidates with their social media links can be found here.
Stephanie Kusie was nominated as the Conservative Party candidate in Calgary-Midnapore, defeating Jack Redekop and Myles McDougall. Her nomination caused a stir after the anti-abortion group Campaign Life Coalition, claimed to have played a significant role in her victory.
Taryn Knorren defeated Brennan Wauters to become the Green Party candidate in Calgary Heritage.
Ryan Zedic was acclaimed as the Green Party candidate in Calgary-Midnapore.
Federal by-elections must be called in Calgary-Heritage by February 25, 2017 and in Calgary-Midnapore no later than March 22, 2017. An updated list of nominated by-election candidates with their social media links can be found here.
Nomination candidates Jack Redekop, Khalis Ahmed, Haley Brown and Stephanie Kusie.
With federal by-elections expected to be called in the next few months in the ridings of Calgary-Heritage and Calgary-Midnapore, candidates are stepping up to seek party nominations.
In Calgary-Heritage, where a by-election must be called by February 25, 2017, three candidates ran for the Conservative nomination to succeed former Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Party activist Bob BenzendefeatedPaul Frank and Richard Billington to become his party’s candidate at a nomination meeting in late October.
The Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate in Calgary-Heritage but I am told that past candidate Brendan Miles is considering seeking his party’s nomination once again. Khalid Ahmed is seeking the New Democratic Party nomination. He ran for the NDP in Calgary-Signal Hill during the 2015 election where he earned 5 percent of the vote.
In Calgary-Midnapore, where a by-election must be called no later than March 22, 2017, Haley Brown announced her plans to run for the Liberal nomination. Ms. Brown won a contested nomination in July 2015 to become the party’s candidate in that year’s federal election. She placed second with 22.6 percent of the vote.
Former lobbyist Stephanie Kusie and party activist Jack Redekop are seeking the Conservative Party nomination o Calgary-Midnapore.
Ms. Kusie worked as a ministerial special advisor in Ottawa and served in the foreign service before running for Calgary City Council in 2013. After the municipal election she worked as executive director of the Manning Centre funded Common Sense Calgary group. She has the endorsement of Calgary-Shepard MP Tom Kmiec, former MLAs Cindy Ady, Jonathan Denis and Heather Forsyth, and public school trustee Amber Stewart. Her husband, James Kusie, is also a former Ottawa political staffer and is currently listed as the Government Relations and Issues Advisor for Imperial Oil Limited.
Mr. Redekop briefly ran as a candidate in the 2012 Senator Nominee election but appeared to have dropped out of the race before the filing deadline. He has the endorsement of Calgary-Fish Creek MLA Richard Gotfried.
UPDATE: A third candidate, Myles McDougall, is running for the Conservative nomination in Calgary-Midnapore.
If I missed any candidates running for party nominations in these two federal ridings, please send me an email at david.cournoyer@gmail.com.
Conservative candidate Glen Motz (centre) with MP and PC leadership candidate Jason Kenney and Sue Motz.
A federal by-election will be held in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner riding on October 24, 2016. Voters in the riding are choosing a successor to Conservative Member of Parliament Jim Hillyer, who died in March 2016.
Lawyer Richard Billington is the third candidate to enter the Conservative nomination race in Calgary-Heritage to replace former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who resigned earlier this month. Mr. Billington joins party activist Bob Benzen and city prosecutor Paul Frank. As noted in a previous post, Mr. Billington ran for the Conservative nomination in Calgary-Centre in 2012 and has served as the President of the Conservative association in Calgary-Heritage for the past three years.
The Conservative nomination meeting in Calgary-Heritage is scheduled to take place on October 22, 2016, but could be pushed ahead if a by-election is called earlier. An open forum is expected to be held with the nomination candidates on October 12 or 13, 2016.
Kenny to resign this week
After spending the summer campaigning for the leadership of the provincial Progressive Conservative Party, Jason Kenney is expected to resign as MP for Calgary-Midnapore on September 23, 2016. Mr. Kenney had announced earlier this summer that he would resign on October 1, 2016, when the PC leadership race officially begins, but he announced last week at a campaign stop in St. Albert that he would resign one week earlier. A by-election must be called within six months of his resignation, which would be March 23, 2017.
Conservative leader Stephen Harper delivers his concession speech after the votes were counted on the October 19, 2015 federal election.
Following former prime minister Stephen Harper’s resignation last week, a by-election must be called in the Calgary-Heritage riding by February 25, 2017. Two candidates have already entered the Conservative nomination race to succeed Mr. Harper in Calgary-Heritage.
The Calgary-Heritage federal riding (image from Wikipedia)
Local Conservative Party activist Bob Benzen was the first to announce his candidacy for the nomination. His website states that he is the co-founder of the Decade of Excellence Committee, which paid for large billboards thanking Mr. Harper for his service in office after the Liberal Party’s victory in the October 2015 election.
Calgary lawyer Paul Frank is the second candidate to join the nomination contest. He previously ran in the 2012 Senator-in-Waiting election and as a candidate for the Conservative Party nomination in Calgary-Rocky Ridge in 2014.
Local Liberals have been actively campaigning in Calgary-Heritage in anticipation of Mr. Harper’s resignation (and the neighbouring Calgary-Midnapore in anticipation of Jason Kenney’s resignation on October 1, 2016).
Brendan Miles
Rumoured potential candidates for the Liberal nomination include lawyer and past Calgary-Confederation candidate Matt Grant, Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi‘s chief of staff Chima Nkemdirim, and past candidate Brendan Miles. Mr. Nenshi quashed rumours of his candidacy when he told Metro Calgary in May 2016 that he would not run in the by-election.
Mr. Harper was re-elected in October 2015 with 63 percent of the vote, ahead of Liberal Dr. Miles with 25 percent, New Democrat Matt Masters with 8 percent and Green Kelly Christie with 2 percent.
Before the 2015 election, the riding was known as Calgary-Southwest and had been represented by Mr. Harper since 2002. The riding was previously represented by Reform Party leader Preston Manning from 1993 to 2002.
19 Days Left! South east of Calgary, there are 19 days left until a federal by-election must be called in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner riding.
Jason Kenney said last week that he will resign as the Member of Parliament for Calgary-Midnapore when the Progressive Conservative Party leadership campaign officially starts on October 1, 2016. He is expected to spend the summer months campaigning for the party leadership while presumably continuing to have access to MP resources and collecting his Ottawa salary and pension.
If Mr. Kenney does go on to win the leadership of the PC Party in March 2017, he may look for an opportunity to quickly become an MLA. If interim party leader Ric McIver were to resign as MLA for Calgary-Hays, he would create an opening for Mr. Kenney to enter the Legislature.
In return, Mr. McIver could potentially seek the federal Conservative nomination to run in the by-election to replace Mr. Kenney in Calgary-Midnapore. The Calgary-Hays constituency is inside the boundaries of the Calgary-Sheperd federal riding but was until 2015 partially in Calgary-Southeast, a federal riding represented by Mr. Kenney from 1997 until 2015.
Mr. McIver represented southeast Calgary as an Alderman from 2000 to 2012 and as an MLA since 2012. A jump into federal politics would be a natural fit. He would become one of the few Canadian politicians to have been elected at three orders of government and it would also give Mr. McIver an honourable path to bow out of provincial politics without seeking the party leadership for a second time.
Michael Connolly
Of note, Calgary-Hawkwood NDP MLA Michael Connolly was briefly nominated as the federal NDP candidate in Calgary-Midnapore before he decided to instead throw his hat into provincial politics before the 2015 election, which turned out to be a good choice. Mr. Connolly was elected as MLA in May 2015 and Mr. Kenney was re-elected in October 2015 with 70 percent of the vote.
A federal by-eleciton is expected to be called soon in the Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner federal riding and another will be held in the Calgary-Heritage riding after former Prime Minister Stephen Harper resigns as MP, which he is expected to do this summer.
In anticipation of the three by-elections, I am maintaining a special page to keep track of the three potential federal by-elections in Alberta.
Glen Motz (at the mic) is the nominated Conservative Party of Canada candidate in the upcoming by-election in Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner.
Glen Motz will be the Conservative Party of Canada candidate in the upcoming federal by-election in the riding of Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner. Mr. Motz defeated five other men, including former Wildrose Party leader and Cardston-Taber-Warner MLA Paul Hinman, in a contest that drew more than 3,100 party members to vote. The candidate was chosen on a fourth round of voting using a preferential ballot system.
He also has some social conservative views that are probably closer to the mainstream in this sprawling rural south east Alberta riding than they are in most of Canada.
“I’m pro-life, there’s no question. Unfortunately it’s the law of the land in this country,” Mr. Motz is reported to have told a crowd of supporters at a candidate’s forum in June 2016. “I will continue to fight that the rights of the unborn are not eroded further. I believe in the sanctity of life.”
Women’s reproductive rights and gay rights were some of the top issues debated by a field of white male candidates in the last nomination contest held in this riding in 2014.
Following the death of Conservative Member of Parliament Jim Hillyer on March 23, 2016, Elections Canada has announced that a by-election must be called in Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner before September 26, 2016. The earliest a by-election could have been held was May 16, 2016.
Stephen Harper
This is one of the most reliably Conservative voting ridings in Canada, so it is almost a certainty that Mr. Motz will be the next Member of Parliament. Mr. Hillyer earned 68.8 percent of the vote when he was re-elected in October 2015.
Calgary-Heritage
Another federal by-election is expected to be held in the Calgary-Heritage riding if former Prime Minister Stephen Harperresigns as an MP later this summer as predicted. The names of a handful of potential nominees for the Conservative nomination have been rumoured, including Calgary-HaysProgressive Conservative MLA Ric McIver.
While it is expected that the Conservatives will easily hold on to this riding, the Liberals did see their share of the vote skyrocket from 7 percent in the 2011 election to 26 percent in the 2015 election (the Conservative vote in this riding dropped from 74.3 percent in 2011 to 63.7 percent in 2015).
Brendan Miles
The Liberals also saw their vote share increase significantly in four federal by-elections held in Alberta before the 2015 election, including in Calgary-Centre in 2012. Without the appeal of an incumbent Conservative MP or a sitting Prime Minister, the Liberals could see their vote increase in this by-election as well.
He does not appear to have officially declared his intentions to run for the Liberal Party nomination, but past candidate Brendan Miles has been knocking on doors in the riding for months and the local Liberal association is holding a pancake breakfast during the Calgary Stampede.
Perhaps in anticipation of a surprise by-election, the local Liberals in this riding have scheduled an organization and training session for July 20, 2016.
