Edmonton-Centre NDP candidate Lewis Cardinal and NDP leader Thomas Mulcair in Edmonton on March 26, 2014.
More than 500 people packed into the lobby of the Winspear Centre yesterday to watch the New Democratic Party of Canada officially nominate Edmonton-Centre‘s Lewis Cardinal as the first candidate for 2015 federal election. The selection of Edmonton-Centre as the NDP’s first nomination demonstrates that party’s desire to turn Edmonton into a battle ground in the next election.
Jack Layton at a NDP rally in Edmonton during the 2008 federal election.
After Mr. Cardinal was nominated, NDP leader Thomas Muclair took to the stage to congratulate the new candidate.
During his speech, I could not help but reflect on the differences between Mr. Mulcair and former leader Jack Layton, who spoke to a raucous crowd in the same room during the 2008 federal election.
I remember being impressed with Mr. Layton’s ability to raise the level of energy in the room just with his presence. He oozed style, was charismatic and felt like a made-for-TV leader. His energy was contagious, but I could not help but question whether he had enough substance behind that style. I always had a difficult time picturing Mr. Layton as the next Prime Minister of Canada.
This week, Mr. Mulcair’s speech to the crowd at the Winspear was more business than partisan play. Unlike Mr. Layton’s high-energy speech in 2008, Mr. Mulcair’s speech focused on the policy and values that differentiates his party from the Conservatives and Liberals. The partisans cheered, but he did not generate the same type of excitement in the room that his predecessor was able to.
Mr. Mulcair’s speech reminded me of what Stephen Harper sounded like before the Conservatives formed government in Ottawa eight years ago. What he delivered was a perfectly acceptable grounded speech. Mr. Mulcair sounded like he could be the next Prime Minister of Canada.
Side note: A great concert hall and an excellent venue, the Winspear Centre is named for philanthropist Francis Winspear, who, along with Preston Manning, helped found of the Reform Party of Canada in 1987.
Cabinet minister Ken Hughes has launched an “exploratory committee” to investigate a leadership bid.
In 2006, it was $15,000, in 2011, it was $40,000, and in 2014, the fee to become a candidate in the Progressive Conservative leadership race is $50,000.
Senior officials from Alberta’s Progressive Conservative party gathered in Red Deer last night to discuss timelines, entry fees and the rules that will help shape their party’s 2014 leadership race.
The first ballot vote will be held on September 6, 2014 and, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote on that ballot, the top two candidates will compete on a second ballot held on September 20, 2014.
The combination of a short campaign period (5 months and 18 days) and a high entry fee could limit the number of candidates able to enter the race.
Gary Mar’s campaign reportedly spent $2.7 million in his 2011 bid for the PC leadership.
In order to run a campaign, candidates will need to raise significant amounts of funds in a very short period in addition to the cost of the entry fee. In 2011, Gary Mar‘s frontrunner campaign reportedly spent $2.7 million on his leadership bid (collecting more than $200,000 in debt). Alison Redford‘s campaign spent $1.3 million.
It is not known whether the PCs will limit the amounts that individual campaigns are allowed to spend or if they will require the disclosure of financial donors to the leadership campaigns.
The practical reality for the PC Party is that they needed to consider high entry fees in order to help finance the organization and promotion of the leadership campaign. As leadership candidates sap funds that would normally fill party coffers, the party needs to quickly recuperate the costs of the leadership race after in order to prepare for a general election in 2016 (or sooner).
Leadership candidates emerge, kind of…
Defying expectations that cabinet ministers should resign their posts when running in a party leadership race, Municipal Affairs minister Ken Hughes, 60, launched a public “exploratory committee” website at a press conference yesterday. A “serious” person, according to quotes on his website, Mr. Hughes does not appear to be serious about whether he should be a candidate in this race.
On the peripheries of public attention, it appears as though Stephen Mandel, 68, could be preparing to come out of retirement. The recently retired three-term mayor of Edmonton is rumoured to be preparing a campaign team to test the waters. Mr. Mandel will be 70 years-old by the time the next election is called.
Also said to be interested in mounting a leadership bid is former federal cabinet minister Jim Prentice. The former Calgary Member of Parliament is currently serving as a Senior Executive Vice-President of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. He recently accepted a role as Enbridge’s envoy to northern British Columbia’s First Nations communities in their bid to build the Northern Gateway Pipeline from Alberta to Kitimat.
Liberal leader makes fundraising pitch
Raj Sherman
In a fundraising email sent yesterday, the Liberal Party announced that leader Raj Sherman will match all donations made to the party before March 31, 2014. According to Alberta’s political finance laws, individuals can only donate a maximum of $15,000 each year.
As a physician, Dr. Sherman has also frequently made donations to the Liberal Party through his professional corporation, raising his limit to $30,000. And as the Daryl Katz-PC Party donation fiasco taught us in 2012, you can always depend on family members or employees to make donations as well.
The Liberals fell behind the other major parties in fundraising in 2013, only raising a small $339,540 (the NDP raised $623,763 in the same period).
Here is the audio from a robocall placed by Mr. Anders’ campaign to Conservative Party members in Calgary-Signal Hill announcing Mr. Harper’s endorsement:
One of Canada’s most offensive hyper-Conservatives, Mr. Anders is facing a stiff nomination challenge in the new Calgary-Signal Hill from former Calgary MLA and provincial cabinet minister Ron Liepert.
Mr. Harper’s endorsement is sure to inflame supporters of Mr. Liepert, who will be quick to point out how unusual it is for leader of a party to openly endorse a candidate in a contested nomination race.
Moderate Tories have tried for 17 years to grab the nomination from Mr. Anders, sending high-profile candidates like Alison Redford, Jocelyn Burgener and Donna Kennedy-Glans to run against him, to no avail.
Fort McMurray-Athabasca
Unlike the raucous Conservative by-election nomination race in Macleod, the contest to choose the next Conservative candidate in northeastern Alberta’s Fort McMurray-Athabasca is a sleepy affair. As of this morning, only Fort McMurray lawyer Arlan Delisle and Athabasca County councillor David Yurdiga have entered the Conservative nomination race.
Today, March 24, is the deadline for candidates to enter the Conservative Party nomination contest and the cutoff for membership sales is March 31, 2014.
Lewis Cardinal
Edmonton-Centre
On March 26, Edmonton-Centre’s Lewis Cardinal is expected to be acclaimed as the first New Democratic Party candidate nominated for the 2015 federal general election. The nomination meeting will take place in the lobby of the Winspear Centre and will leader Thomas Mulcair and a handful of NDP MPs from across the country. The lobby of the Winspear is a memorable place for many local New Democrats, who remember when Jack Layton used the venue to host a large and energy-filled election campaign rally in 2008.
Edmonton-Mill Woods Varinder Bhullarhas announced that he will seek the Liberal Party nomination in the new Edmonton-Mill Woods riding.
Edmonton-Wetaskiwin
When Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont MP Mike Lake decided to seek the Conservative nomination in the new Edmonton-Wetaskiwin riding, he was taking a gamble. Mr. Lake, who lives a south Edmonton neighbourhood included in the new riding now facing the challenge of winning a nomination in a riding where 75% of the new territory is new ground. Well-respected in Edmonton, he is now facing a challenge from Leduc County mayorJohn Whaley and Edmonton police officer Mohinder Banga.
Lethbridge First-term MP Jim Hillyer is facing two challengers for the Conservative nomination in the new Lethbridge riding. With Mr. Hillyer cut-off from his base of support in the southern half of the former Lethbridge riding, Doug McArthur and Alex Hann hope to replace him as the Tory candidate.
Red Deer-Mountain View
MP Earl Dreeshen has announced his plans to seek the Conservative nomination in the new Red Deer-Mountain View riding. Mr. Dreeshen has represented the current Red Deer riding since 2008.
Outgoing Premier Alison Redford with incoming Premier Dave Hancock.
On March 20, 1989, Alberta’s Progressive Conservatives were re-elected with a majority government but Premier Don Getty was defeated by voters in his Edmonton-Whitemud constituency. It was a stunning embarrassment for the then 18-year governing PC Party.
Don Getty
Twenty-five years later, on March 20, 2014, Alberta’s still-governing PCs selected Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Dave Hancock to serve as Premier of Alberta until a replacement could be chosen for the embattled departing Premier Alison Redford.
Mr. Hancock was president of PC Party during the dying days of Mr. Getty’s premiership, when it appeared as though the Tories would be defeated by the Liberals led popular former mayor Laurence Decore.
Mr. Getty’s resigned in 1992 after being dragged down by low public approval ratings and a disgruntled caucus. A divisive leadership race chose his successor, Ralph Klein, who soon after led the Tories to win a majority government in the 1993 election. Tory partisans of a certain age fondly refer to this period as “the miracle on the prairies.”
Mr. Hancock’s experience as party president during the early 1990s and his 43 years of involvement in the province’s natural governing party could help him calm the dissent in the unwieldy PC caucus.
Facing increased pressure from the opposition Wildrose Party, the next four to six months will be an incredibly important time for the Tories, as the upcoming leadership race will define the PC Party in advance of a fast approaching 2016 election.
The parallels between the early 1990s and today are not perfect, and perhaps not even fair, but they serve as a reminder about the ability of the PC Party to reinvent itself. Even at its most damaged and divided, as it appeared to be this week, the PC Party remains a political force to be reckoned with.
With yesterday’s announcement by Premier Alison Redford that she will resign on March 23, 2014, the Progressive Conservative caucus will need to select an interim premier and the PC Party is required to hold a leadership contest to select a new leader.
Dave Hancock: Interim Premier
Deputy Premier Dave Hancock and Agriculture minister Verlyn Olson have been rumoured as potential choices for interim premier until the party selects a new leader.
UPDATE: Dave Hancock is the new Premier of Alberta until the PC Party is able to hold a leadership vote. Candidates for the interim position are said to have included Doug Griffiths, Frank Oberle, and Verlyn Olson (who declined).
According to section 14.2 of the PC Party constitution, a leadership race must be held between four and six months from the time previous leader resigns. This means the vote will need to be held between July 23, 2014 and September 23, 2014.
Unlike previous PC leadership races, according to recently changed party rules, if no candidate earns a majority of votes on the first ballot, only the first and second candidate move to the second ballot vote. Previously, three candidates would move to the second ballot.
The future of the PC Party could be determined by the candidates who step forward to become its next leader and, for the time being, the next premier of Alberta. As blogger David Climenhaga writes, “[v]ery possibly the quality of the field will be a weathervane for the party’s chances of survival.”
Thomas Lukaszuk
With that in mind, here are some potential candidates who could run for the leadership of Alberta’s PC Party:
Ric McIver (Calgary-Hays)
A former Calgary Alderman and mayoral candidate, Mr. McIver was first elected to the Legislature in 2012. Upon his election he immediately joined cabinet and served as Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure, becoming a high profile member of Ms. Redford’s cabinet. Because of his conservative political leanings, some observers were surprised when he shunned the Wildrose in favour of being a star Tory candidate in the last election.
Thomas Lukaszuk (Edmonton-Castle Downs)
Until recently, the former deputy premier had become the most recognizable face of the PC government. Serving as the unofficial premier while Ms. Redford traveled the globe on trade missions, his combativeness and growing public profile may have been the reason he was demoted to labour minister in December 2013. It has long been suspected that Mr. Lukaszuk has aspirations to occupy the premier’s office.
Jonathan Denis
Doug Horner (Spruce Grove-St. Albert)
Currently the Finance minister, Mr. Horner was first elected as MLA in 2001. He placed third in the 2011 PC leadership race and became an ally of Ms. Redford’s after the leadership race. Born into a political family, his father Hugh Horner was Lougheed-era minister, his grandfather Ralph Horner was a Senator, and three of his uncles served as Members of Parliament.
James Rajotte
Member of Parliament representing south Edmonton since 2000, Mr. Rajotte chairs the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance. He is said to be considering his options after he was once again looked over for a spot in the federal cabinet.
Donna Kennedy-Glans
Jonathan Denis (Calgary-Acadia)
The current minister of Justice and Solicitor General is relatively young compared to others on this list, but Mr. Denis is a long-time politico. A lawyer and former business partner of federal Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre, he could earn the support of his party’s shrinking right-wing. A “Draft Jonathan Denis for Premier” Facebook page has already been created.
Donna Kennedy-Glans (Calgary-Varsity)
The first-term MLA left the PC caucus earlier this week, blasting what she described as a culture of entitlement. A former senior executive in Calgary’s corporate oil sector, Ms. Kennedy-Glans would bring business experience, deep pocketed friends and, now, an independent streak, to a candidacy for leadership.
Stephen Mandel
Gary Mar
The sure-bet to win the 2011 PC leadership race was quickly whisked away to Hong Kong after losing to Ms. Redford. Since then, the former cabinet minister has been far away from the lime-light while serving as Alberta’s envoy to Asia. It is unclear whether he would try a second time to win his party’s leadership.
Stephen Mandel
Oft-talked about as a potential premier, the retired mayor of Edmonton has not shown any signs he is actually interested in the job. After nine years as mayor of Alberta’s capital city, Mr. Mandel left office in October 2013 as a well-respected civic leader. He has since been critical of Ms. Redford’s government’s policies, but is is unclear why he would want to lead the deeply divided caucus.
Alison Redford announces she will resign as Premier of Alberta on March 23, 2014.
It was only a matter of time.
After a short 898 days as Premier of Alberta, Alison Redford announced today that she plans to resign as premier and leader of the Progressive Conservatives on Sunday, March 23, 2014.
Thousands of Albertans protested the Redford Government’s anti-labour laws in November 2013.
After facing months of controversy over travel expenses and weeks of turmoil in her caucus, Ms. Redford faced the prospects of an MLA revolt unless she took drastic action. With two recent MLA defections and indications that more were to come, it had become clear that Ms. Redford had lost control over her caucus, suggesting that her departure was imminent.
Preferring international travel to the day to day business of governing, she faced internal criticism for being inaccessible to her party’s MLAs, many who felt completely disconnected from the business of governing. Many chalked it up to her having been appointed straight into cabinet when she was first elected as an MLA in 2008.
Her departure is not unexpected, as the PC Party has proven itself ruthless towards leaders who threaten its chances of re-election. But while delivering her farewell speech in the Rotunda of the Legislative Assembly Building tonight, Ms. Redford was graceful in her departure. She looked and sounded like a Premier should.
Many Albertans, myself included, had great hope for Ms. Redford when she was chosen as the leader of the PC Party in 2011. After forty years in power, Alberta’s natural governing party had grown stodgy and complacent. Casting herself as a progressive conservative in the mould of former premier Peter Lougheed, she attracted the support of many non-traditional PC supporters – liberals, moderates, trade unionists and even soft-New Democrats.
And with the help of that new electoral coalition, Ms. Redford defeated the conservative Wildrose Party in our province’s most hotly contested election in memory. There was hope but Ms. Redford and her party were quick to disappoint.
While the Redford Tories continued the smart infrastructure investments begun under previous premier Ed Stelmach, they quickly turned against many of the moderate voters who supported the party in 2012.
Deep cuts to post-secondary education, cuts to supports for people with developmental disabilities, harsh anti-labour legislation, and drastic changes to pension plans have helped alienate many professionals and public sector workers who would have otherwise gladly continued to support her. Instead of being humbled by their near defeat in 2012, the PC Party has become more arrogant. After 43 years of power, they act as if they were invincible.
The divided and disgruntled PC caucus will soon appoint an interim leader who will serve until the PC Party chooses their next leader in four to six months. The Alison Redford experiment has come to an ugly end and the natural governing party now faces the challenge of once again reinventing itself under a new leader.
If the next leader succeeds to repair the aging institutional party, the PC dynasty may continue after the next election. If the next leader fails to convince Albertans that the PC Party is worthy of continuing to govern, it may fall in the next election.
The increasingly public struggle between Premier Alison Redford and a group of disgruntled MLAs in the Progressive Conservative Party continues this week.
Edmonton-South West PC MLA Matt Jeneroux mused that he is “taking time to reflect” about whether he should remain in the government caucus. Edmonton-Riverview MLA Steve Young, already , is also considering leaving the PC caucus.
Government House leader Robin Campbell says that PC MLAs are free to speak their mind. But the lack of discipline in the caucus suggests the real reason is that any attempt to silence the disgruntled MLAs could lead to a mass departure from the government caucus.
At a press conference held yesterday afternoon, party president Jim McCormick gave a luke-warm support for Ms. Redford’s leadership. Mr. McCormick also sent an email to PC Party supporters, explaining that the “work plan” issued to the premier last weekend does not exist on paper. There is no plan.
With the current situation in flux, here are four possible scenarios that could play out over the next few weeks:
Redford resigns – Pressure from her caucus and party results in Ms. Redford resigning as Premier of Alberta and leader of the PC Party. The disgruntled MLAs remain in the government caucus. An interim premier, possibly Deputy Premier Dave Hancock, is appointed and a leadership contest is scheduled. MLAs hope that a new leader can reinvent and reenergize their aging party before the next election.
Redford stays, more MLAs leave – Ms. Redford and her loyalists resist the pressure from disgruntled MLAs and supporters calling for the premier’s resignation. Some of the ten MLAs, possibly as many as ten, leave the PC caucus to sit as Independent MLAs, causing a severe rift in the party and the caucus.
“Kumbaya” – The disgruntled MLAs resolve their issues with Ms. Redford and she pledges to change her leadership style in order to improve her relationship with her caucus and party. The Tory dynasty continues as peace and harmony is returned to the government benches.
Conflict continues – Ms. Redford refuses to resign and the disgruntled MLAs continue to voice their discontent with the premier’s leadership style. The party and caucus are torn apart in the political fight. Wildrose leader Danielle Smith rejoices and leads her party to win the 2016 election.
Blasting the culture of entitlement that has engulfed the 43-year governing Progressive Conservative Party, Calgary-Varsity MLA Donna Kennedy-Glans announced on Monday that she was leaving the government caucus to sit as an Independent MLA. Ms. Kennedy-Glans is the second MLA to leave the PC caucus this month, but unlike the departure of Calgary-Foothills MLA Len Webber, she did not have a well-known history of dissatisfaction with the party’s leadership.
Donna Kennedy-Glans
Since being elected, however, and particularly since joining Cabinet, I am increasingly convinced that elements of this 43-year old government are simply unable to make the changes needed to achieve that dream of a better Alberta. – Donna Kennedy-Glans
The now-former Minister of Electricity and Renewable Energy was a star PC candidate in the 2012 election, and was seen as a rising star within the caucus. A former vice-president of Nexen, Ms. Kennedy-Glans decision to leave the PC caucus carries a significant amount of weight in Calgary’s corporate oil establishment, and her departure is a blow to Ms. Redford’s party.
Over the past 43 years, the PC Party has survived, and dominated, by reinventing itself with each new leader. As such, the PC Party has transformed drastically since the principled Peter Lougheed first led it to victory in 1971. Tied to its current unpopular leadership, the PC Party faces a serious identity crisis, but the crisis is deeper than its current leader. As a natural governing party for more than four decades, the PC Party in 2014 has become tired, arrogant and absent of real principles.
Albertans have an overwhelmingly low opinion of Ms. Redford’s character and they are scratching their heads wondering why the party has not yet compelled her to resign. Her aloof reaction to scandals over her personal use of government planes and travel expenses have overshadowed the government’s entire agenda over the past two months.
The PC Party had an opportunity to send Ms. Redford packing last year, when instead they handed her a 77% approval vote in her leadership review.
Now left with no official mechanism to remove her as leader, her opponents and her potential successors are forced to useeagerly using more public and more embarrassing methods to pressure Ms. Redford to resign.
Update: This morning on CBC Edmonton AM, Edmonton-South West PC MLA Matt Jeneroux mused that he is “taking time to reflect” about whether he should remain in the government caucus.
Old white men: Progressive Conservative MLAs leave their Thursday morning caucus meeting at Government House.
A rumoured revolt within Alberta’s Progressive Conservative caucus failed to materialize yesterday as government MLAs gathered at Government House to discuss Premier Alison Redford‘s future.
Cancelling all public appearances and media events for the day, including the premier’s trip to Regina to participate in the New West Partnership meeting, PC MLAs cloistered themselves in the stately mansion for more than four hours.
The media were positioned outside of Government House, waiting for news of the rumoured MLA revolt.
Despite rumours that up to 20 PC MLAs were considering leaving to sit as Independents if Ms. Redford did not pay back the $45,000 she expensed for a trip to South Africa, only Calgary-Foothills MLA Len Webber announced his departure yesterday.
At a morning press conference in Calgary, Mr. Webber laid down harsh criticism against Ms. Redford, describing her as an abusive bully and claiming she is killing the PC Party. Mr. Webber’s departure from the PC caucus is a blow, but not a complete surprise. He is currently seeking a federal Conservative nomination, meaning that he was already planning on leaving provincial politics.
With a gloom look on her face, Ms. Redford briskly left the building around 11:30am and was quickly whisked away in her black Suburban SUV.
Premier Alison Redford quickly departs Government House.
Not long after the premier’s departure, Tory MLAs slowly poured out of Government House. Most MLAs were tight-lipped and refused to comment about what transpired at their meeting. It appeared that Ms. Redford remained leader of the PC caucus.
Were rumours of an MLA revolt against the premier exaggerated or is it yet to come? Was Ms. Redford able to appease the critics in her caucus by pledging to pay the $45,000 she expensed for a trip to South Africa? Has the PC caucus put the premier on probation?
Deputy Premier Dave Hancock scrums with the media after the PC caucus meeting.
A party loyalist to the core, deputy premier Dave Hancock held a media scrum announcing that his party’s MLAs were united and focused on “building Alberta.” Meanwhile, the normally combative Labour minister Thomas Lukaszuk was curiously coy, saying only that the caucus had “a very productive conversation.”
Alberta’s long-governing PCs have a history of ruthlessly deposing leaders who threaten their re-election prospects. But while Ms. Redford’s popularity is low and her premiership has become scandal-plagued, PC MLAs must recognize the reality facing their own party.
PC MLAs Moe Amery and Jacquie Fenske leave Government House.
With less than two years until the next election, the PC Party can ill-afford the financial costs of a hastily called leadership race, which would increase party expenses while diluting their already strapped donor base.
But this is not likely the end of the challenges facing Ms. Redford’s premiership. This upcoming weekend, senior PC Party officials will gather to discuss the future of their party, and their leader will surely be a topic of discussion. For the time-being, Ms. Redford appears to have survived the wrath of her caucus, but can she appease party activists with no appetite for defeat?
Former Prime Minister Joe Clark and Premier Alison Redford at Nelson Mandela’s funeral in South Africa (photo from Premier Alison Redford’s Facebook Page)
After spending two months avoiding having to pay the costs of her $45,000 trip to South Africa, Premier Alison Redford called a press conference late yesterday to announce she would reimburse the government for costs of sending herself and her executive assistant Brad Stables to South Africa in December 2013.
Despite attempts to ignore the issue, Ms. Redford has been unable to escape criticism about her travel expenses and questionable use of government airplanes, including trips from Palm Springs and allegedly to attend a political fundraiser in Grande Prairie.
Len Webber
Ms. Redford argued that because she had apologized for the cost of the South Africa trip, Albertans were ready to forgive her, even if she did not repay the cost. Recent polls showing the premier with a 20% approval rating suggested otherwise.
Responding to their leader’s dwindling popularity, Progressive Conservative MLAs have pushed back. Calgary-Foothills MLA Len Webber announced today that he was leaving the PC caucus to sit as an Independent, citing Ms. Redford’s record as the reason for his departure. There is little love between the premier and this MLA, who is currently campaigning to become the federal Conservative candidate in Calgary-Confederation.
“I hope this will be a catalyst, a domino effect and that others will follow to have the premier gone,” Mr. Webber told the Calgary Herald.
Rumours about disgruntled MLAs have been circulating for months, but today, news reports suggest that up to 18 or 20 PC MLAs were ready to revolt against the premier. Feeding these rumours was the noticeable absence of Labour minister Thomas Lukaszuk from this week’s big LRT funding announcement, at which he was the only Edmonton-area PC MLA not in attendance.
Christine Cusanelli
Feeding the unrest is the obvious double standard Ms. Redford held between herself and her party’s MLAs. More than a few PC MLAs were insulted by Ms. Redford’s decision during the last election to force them to pay out of pocket for payments received from the infamous no-meet committee. And in February 2013, Ms. Redford fired Calgary MLA Christine Cusanelli from cabinet after another travel expenses scandal, even though she had immediately repaid the cost before the story became public.
Ms. Redford’s own MLAs may be more eager to see her depart than the opposition. While Wildrose leader Danielle Smith is never hesitant to criticize Ms. Redford, her party is hoping the premier’s scandals will cause irreparable damage to the PC Party brand before the next election. A new leader would force the opposition to build a new strategy and the give the PC Party an opportunity to reinvent itself before the 2016 election.
Will paying the costs of the South Africa trip be enough to save Ms. Redford’s political career? It might, but it also might also be too little, too late. Albertans will applaud her decision to pay back the costs of this trip, but they might not easily forget how much pressure it took to convince Ms. Redford to write the cheque.
Surrounded by city councillors and local Progressive Conservative MLAs, and awkwardly crammed into the narrowest section of the Churchill LRT concourse, Premier Alison Redford, Mayor Don Iveson and Mr. Horner announced the details of the the provincial government’s committment:
– up to $250 million under GreenTRIP over three years beginning in 2016-17 upon approval under the second call for GreenTRIP projects.
– up to $150 million in matching provincial funding if the federal government approves this project under the new Building Canada Fund beginning in 2016-17.
– up to $200 million in an interest-free loan to be repaid by the city over 10 years, fully backed by the Alberta Capital Finance Authority.
The announcement followed months of lobbying and public advocacy by Mr. Iveson, councillor Amarjeet Sohi and council members who unanimously made LRT expansion their first priority when they took office last October.
This is exciting news for Edmonton, as the City will now tender contracts and begin construction on the new LRT line next year. When it is completed in 2020, the Valley Line expansion through the south east into Mill Woods will provide LRT service to hundreds of thousands of Edmontonians.
It is, perhaps, not unintentional that much of the funding announced yesterday will be included in a budget that will be tabled immediately before the 2016 election. That budget, and this announcement, will play a defining role in the PC Party’s campaign for re-election.
Amid rumours of caucus dissent, the latest accusations that Ms. Redford used a government plane to attend a PC Party fundraiser and recent polling showing her approval ratings in the 20 percent range, the governing Tories are in desperate need of a public relations win.
Funding for LRT expansion is a big win for Edmonton, but the announcement alone might not be enough to convince Albertans to forgive the scandals that continue to dog the premier and her government.
Edmonton-Centre Conservative Member of Parliament Laurie Hawnhas decided to retire when the next election is called, according to the latest column by the Edmonton Sun’s Lorne Gunter.
The retired Air Force lieutenant-colonel first entered politics in 2004, running unsuccessfully against Liberal MP and Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan. Mr. Hawn defeated Ms. McLellan in a re-match in 2006 and has been appointed to various parliamentary positions related to national defence and security, including Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of National Defence.
Mr. Hawn’s departure is expected to kick-off a hotly contested Conservative nomination contest, which could include a number of high profile conservatives.
A lack of Conservative Party incumbent could also open an opportunity for the opposition parties.
In 2011, Edmonton NDP candidates Lewis Cardinal, Linda Duncan and Ray Martin.
Running for his second time, New Democratic Party candidate Lewis Cardinal finished second in 2011 vote, knocking the Liberals to third-place. He has already been campaigning for nearly one year and hopes to build on the support he earned in the previous election.
The Liberals are hoping excitement about leader Justin Trudeau is enough to help win back the area represented by Ms. McLellan from 1993 to 2006. Three candidates are vying for the Liberal nomination, Randy Boissonnault, Harold Robinson and Don Padget.
Here is a breakdown of the federal election results in Edmonton-Centre from 2004 to 2011:
The sprawling prairie, peaks of mountains, and rolling hills of the Macleod riding run from Spray Lakes in the north to the edge of Waterton National Park in the south.
John Barlow was chosen as the Conservative Party candidate last night in the Macleod riding. With a by-election expected to be called soon, Mr. Barlow defeated three other candidates – Melissa Mathieson, Phil Rowland and Scott Wagner – to win the nomination.
During the campaign, Mr. Barlow faced severe opposition from Canada’s gun lobby for his defence of RCMP actions during last year’s flood in High River. The National Firearms Association waded into the debate and urged Conservatives to support Ms. Mathieson and Mr. Rowland.
Mr. Barlow was the Progressive Conservative candidate in Highwood in the 2012 election, where he faced off against Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith. In that race, he earned 8,159 votes to Ms. Smith’s 10,094 votes.
Dustin Fuller is the first person to declare a candidacy for the Liberal nomination in Macleod. Wascana Liberal MP Ralph Goodale is expected to visit the Macleod next week for a meet and greet in Okotoks. Mr. Goodale will also attend an event in Calgary-Centre.
A nomination date has not yet been announced, but the cutoff to purchase a Liberal membership to vote in the contest is March 13, 2014.
Hoping to gain support in the by-election, the Liberals have focused resources on the diverse and energy rich northern Alberta riding. Liberal MPs Rodger Cuzner and Marc Garneauwill headline a $250 a plate fundraising dinner in Fort McMurray on March 18. Last month, Labrador Liberal MP Yvonne Jones visited Fort McMurray to meet with local members.
Meanwhile, rumours continue to circulate about whether former PC turned Wildrose MLA Guy Boutilier will jump into federal politics as the Conservative candidate. Tim Moenannounced last week that he plans to run for the Libertarian Party nomination.
Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan Conservative activist Garnett Genuis is the first candidate to enter the Conservative nomination in the new Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan riding.
Mr. Genuis was the 2012 Wildrose Party candidate in Sherwood Park, and is a vice-president of a polling company and the executive director for Parents for Choice in Education, a pro-Charter school lobby group whose board of directors includes former Wildrose candidates John Carpay and Andrew Constantinidis. Mr. Genuis has been endorsed by former MPs Ken Epp and Stockwell Day.
Canada’s next federal election is scheduled to be held on October 19, 2015. I have been maintaining a list of candidates who have announced their intentions to seek nominations and run in the next federal election in Alberta ridings. Please contact me at david.cournoyer [at] gmail.com for additions or updates related to candidate nominations in Alberta.
Generally speaking, Budget Day and the Speech from the Throne have been big events that gave Albertans an indication about the government’s agenda for the year ahead.
This week, no real agenda was laid out in the Throne Speech or in the provincial budget. Each event is stage-managed to allow the government an opportunity to trumpet its wisdom and the opposition an opportunity to decry the government’s foolishness.
In many ways, the current government’s unpredictable nature has contributed to the folly of these events. Over the past years, major government policies were implemented and major restructuring projects were imposed without notice in the Throne Speech, the provincial budget, or even the Progressive Conservative Party election platform.
When the government turned the health care system on its head by dissolving regional health authorities and creating Alberta Health Services, it was never mentioned in any election platform or Throne Speech.
When deep cuts to colleges and universities were implemented in last year’s provincial budget, it was never promised in any election platform or Throne Speech.
When anti-labour Bill 45 and Bill 46 were abruptly rushed through the legislature last November, it hadn’t been announced in a Throne Speech or even an election platform. The courts have ruled against BIll 46, even going as far to say it may be unconstitutional.
When the government announced it would change the rules governing the pensions paid by and owed to hundreds of thousands of government workers and retirees, there was no advance notice in a Throne Speech or election platform.
On Monday in the Throne Speech, sent positive messages to growing municipalities that it had plans to recommit to GreenTrip funding for public transportation. Yesterday in the budget, the government failed to deliver any significant increases to the transportation funding that municipalities had been led to believe was coming.
Not surprisingly, Albertans were not given much indication this week in the budget announcement or the Throne Speech about what the government plans to do this year.
Premier Alison Redford should have been able to improve her public approval ratings when she announced the 50th new school to help address the province’s growth, but the ineptitude that led to the airplane scandal quickly derailed that agenda. It was a scandal that fed into her personal narrative, as a high-flying politician removed from the realities of ordinary Albertans. It’s more than likely that more gaffes and scandals are around the corner.
A surplus now exists in the provincial government’s operating budget, but in the capital budget the government in borrowing billions. While I am not opposed to capital financing for public infrastructure projects, any Albertan with a mortgage on a house or line of credit a vehicle will understand that money used to pay back debt is money taken away their operating budget.
Delivered by Finance minister Doug Horner(with the Premier notably absent from extolling the virtues of her own supposedly landmark budget), this budget is a well-packaged piece of public relations, but it honestly does not include a real surplus.
Throne Speeches should be relevant. Budget Day should be important. But lately, these events have become empty public relations exercises. Meanwhile, as Albertans, we wait to see who this government will take in its crosshairs next.
Yesterday’s Speech from the Throne was old news as scandal erupted today over Premier Alison Redford’s alleged inappropriate use of government-owned airplanes.
Premier Alison Redford
After facing criticism over her $45,000 trip to South Africa and a $9,200 trip from Palm Springs, Ms. Redford struggled to control the story today by announcing plans to pay $3,100 for costs associated with five other fights on government airplanes. These new flights include four where her daughter’s friend traveled for free and a fifth to Vancouver, where the premier apparently attended her uncle’s funeral.
On March 22, 2013, Ms. Redford traveled on a government plane with her daughter, a political assistant and a member of her security detail from Calgary to Vancouver. In the public flight manifests, the purpose of the trip is listed as “attend meeting(s) with government officials.” If Ms. Redford was attending to government business in Vancouver as the manifest states, it is unclear why, almost a year later, she has decided to pay the costs of the flight.
Doug Horner
The government airplane, and presumably its government-employed pilots, parked at Vancouver International Airport until Monday, March 25, 2013, when fight records show they returned to Alberta with the premier, her daughter and her entourage.
The premier has asked Finance minister Doug Horner to “find greater cost efficiencies” in government travel expenses, and has also referred the matter to Auditor General Merwan Saher.
Involving the Auditor General accomplishes two important public relations objectives: first, it allows the government to deflect questions from the media until the AG reports back, and second, it means the opposition cannot ask questions about Ms. Redford’s travel expenses in Question Period until the AG reports back.
As Ms. Redford appears to be the only MLA involved in this scandal, it is unclear who else the Auditor General will investigate.
The airplane scandal comes to light as a new poll shows Alberta’s long-governing Progressive Conservatives at an all-time low of 25% support province-wide and Ms. Redford with a 20% approval rating.
Meanwhile, leaked emails show Tory organizers were forced to delay the launch of the new “PC Legacy Fund” after it failed to sign up enough PC MLAs and party officials to contribute to the fundraising program.
This latest turbulence begs the question: can Ms. Redford’s leadership survive, and, who stands to gain the most if she crashes and burns?
